The New York Times 2024-07-13 00:09:39


Middle East Crisis: U.S. Officials See Hopeful Signs in Gaza Cease-Fire Talks

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It will take days to know whether talks yield a breakthrough, people briefed on them say.

Some American officials have grown more optimistic that a deal to release Israeli hostages held in Gaza in return for a cease-fire is at hand. But people briefed on the talks say it will be days until it is clear whether a breakthrough has been achieved because of difficulties in communication between Hamas officials in Qatar and the group’s leaders in Gaza.

Other officials said that previous moments of hope about an agreement had been dashed by both the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Hamas. In Washington, the White House national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, reflected both the optimism and the caution, noting that many details still needed to be hammered out to secure a deal.

“There’s still miles to go before we close if we are able to close,” Mr. Sullivan told reporters on Thursday. “So I don’t want to say that it’s immediately around the corner, but it does not have to be far out in the distance if everyone comes in this with the will to get it done.”

This week, the White House dispatched a top aide to the president, Brett McGurk, to Israel for discussions with the government there, while William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director, traveled to Doha, Qatar, for talks with the Egyptian, Qatari and Israeli officials negotiating over the release of the hostages.

On Friday, Mr. McGurk will lead the American delegation for further talks in Cairo on the framework of a three-phase deal that is backed by the United States and the United Nations. After holding meetings with the Israeli negotiating team on Thursday, Mr. Netanyahu dispatched a delegation led by the head of Israel’s Shin Bet intelligence service to Cairo for continued discussions.

Negotiators have tried to overcome hurdles to a deal by reaching precise agreements on the exchanges of Palestinian prisoners for Israeli hostages in its first phase. At the same time they have pushed for agreement on the broader framework for subsequent phases of the deal.

The framework discussions include the two most contentious issues: whether Israel will agree to end the war, withdraw from Gaza and respect a permanent cease-fire; and whether Hamas will agree to give up control of the Gaza Strip, according to a person briefed on the negotiations.

Both Israel and Hamas remain exceptionally wary about whether the other side is truly ready to make concessions.

Husam Badran, a senior Hamas official, said his group had shown “great flexibility” in discussions with mediators, especially in making language changes, but had held firm to its demand that Israel agree to a permanent cease-fire.

“We’re not obstinate and rigid in negotiating,” he said in an interview in Doha. “If there are some phrases that will make the negotiations easier and lead to the same result — the end of the war — we have no problem.”

Palestinians have grown weary of the war, which has killed tens of thousands of people in Gaza. While most still blame Israel for the death and destruction, anger at Hamas — and a willingness to express that resentment — is growing.

Key Developments

People in Gaza City talk about why they won’t flee, and other news.

  • Few people in Gaza City appeared to be heeding an Israeli warning that laid out four “safe corridors” for them to flee south. In interviews, people in the city said they had decided to stay in their homes or in places where they have been sheltering the dangers from Israeli forces on the evacuation routes, and knowing there is no safety in the south.

  • The Israeli military acknowledged wide-ranging failures that allowed Hamas-led militants to commit a massacre in the Israeli border village of Be’eri during the Oct. 7 attack on southern Israel. The findings came as part of a broader military inquiry into the attack that also exonerated a general’s decision to authorize tank fire on a house in Be’eri where Hamas fighters were holding hostages.

  • The Biden administration will soon permanently shut down the troubled $230 million temporary pier that the U.S. military built to rush humanitarian aid to Gaza, American officials said on Thursday. Maj. Gen. Patrick S. Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary, said the latest effort to re-anchor the pier had failed because of “technical and weather-related issues,” recurring problems that The New York Times highlighted last month.

Researchers try to estimate the true toll of the war by counting ‘excess deaths.’

Gazan health officials say that more than 38,000 people have been killed in nine months of fighting between Israel and Hamas, but researchers are also studying how many people have died as an indirect result of the conflict.

Scientists say that this measurement, known as excess deaths, can provide a truer indication of the toll and scale of conflicts and other social upheaval. They say, for example, that if a person dies from a chronic illness because they are unable to get treatment in a medical facility overburdened by war, that death can be attributed to the conflict.

The question of excess deaths in Gaza was raised in a letter published last week in the medical journal The Lancet, in which three researchers attempted to estimate how many people had died or would die because of the war, on top of the deaths reported by the Gaza Health Ministry. The letter immediately generated debate, with other researchers arguing for caution in any such projection.

One reason to be careful, those researchers said, is that any estimate of excess deaths would rely on data from Gaza’s health sector, which has been devastated by the conflict. Another reason, they said, is that it is hard to predict how epidemics and hunger, two threats to human life that can be triggered by war, will evolve. And Israel has not permitted researchers to enter the enclave since the start of the war last October.

The letter in The Lancet, which said that counting indirect deaths in Gaza was “difficult but essential,” based its estimate on looking at previous studies of recent conflicts, which indicated that three to 15 times as many people died indirectly for every person who had died violently. Applying what they called a “conservative estimate of four indirect deaths per one direct death,” the authors wrote that it was “not implausible” to estimate that about 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributable to the conflict in Gaza.

The letter, which The Lancet said had not been peer-reviewed, as is the case with other letters it publishes, provoked a significant response. The Board of Deputies of British Jews, which represents the Jewish community in Britain, said that the estimate was “little more than conjecture.”

Col. Elad Goren, an official with COGAT, the arm of the Israeli military that implements policy in Gaza, sidestepped a question about excess deaths.

Salim Yusuf, a cardiologist and epidemiologist in Canada who co-wrote the letter, said in an email that the estimate was based on studies of past conflicts and acknowledged that, “inevitably, these are projections.” “The point is that the real numbers of dead will be very large,” he said.

Michael Spagat, a professor of economics at Royal Holloway College at the University of London, who has written about the toll of the war in Gaza, wrote in an analysis that the letter “lacks a solid foundation and is implausible.” He argued that the authors had compared Gaza with a small and unrepresentative sample of other conflicts, and that conditions in Gaza, a small territory under intense international attention, are unique.

In an interview, Mr. Spagat cited other reasons to be cautious when discussing excess deaths in Gaza. He said that fears of major outbreaks of infectious diseases such as cholera have yet to materialize and that, although humanitarian agencies are warning of catastrophic levels of hunger, there is little evidence of widespread deaths because of starvation.

Still, Mr. Spagat said that it was “fair to call attention to the fact that not all of the deaths are going to be direct violent ones.”

The letter in The Lancet is not the first effort to quantify the human toll in Gaza beyond the figures reported by Gazan health authorities.

In February, epidemiologists at Johns Hopkins University and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine produced a model showing three different war scenarios affecting overall deaths in Gaza. They projected that if fighting and humanitarian access remained at the same levels, there could be an additional 58,260 deaths in the six months from March through August. Around 9,000 deaths have been directly attributed to the war since then by Gaza’s health ministry.

The health ministry says that more than 38,000 people have died in Gaza since Oct. 7, when Hamas, which controls the territory, led an attack on Israel in which 1,200 people were killed. While the ministry’s tally is broadly accepted, there remain questions about its methodologies and record keeping, as well as contradictions between its statements and underlying data. Most civilian victims, the ministry says, are women and children. But the figures do not distinguish between civilians and combatants.

The subject of excess deaths is sensitive because it touches on the collateral cost of Israel’s war against Hamas. On top of the large death toll, the attacks have damaged hospitals and shelters. Aid officials say that Israel has also restricted access to the fuel that medical facilities need to operate. Israeli officials say they do all they can to spare civilians, but blame Hamas for placing its forces in urban centers and civilian facilities. They have also said that aid agencies’ logistical difficulties, rather than Israeli restrictions, are to blame for the limited amount of humanitarian aid that is getting to Gazans.

Before the war, Gaza’s health sector produced reliable data, which helps in modeling excess deaths, but lack of access to Gaza for researchers makes the task more difficult, according to Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

Gabby Sobelman contributed reporting.

A Wedding Puts India’s Gilded Age on Lavish Display

The younger son of Mukesh Ambani, India’s richest man, is set to wed his fiancée in Mumbai on Friday, the finale of a monthslong extravaganza that signaled the arrival of the unapologetic Indian billionaire on the global stage — and introduced the world to the country’s Gilded Age.

For much of the year, the festivities surrounding the nuptials of Anant Ambani and Radhika Merchant, the daughter of a fellow business tycoon, have grabbed eyeballs for their lavish displays of wealth. Millions have been spent on diamonds and emeralds the size of credit cards, on haute couture saris, on wedding invitations made of silver and gold.

Billionaire businessmen, Bollywood stars, models and politicians were among the more than 1,200 guests at a pre-wedding bash in March. Bill Gates stopped by. Rihanna performed. In May, the bride and groom-to-be threw a four-day party on a luxury cruise ship in the Mediterranean; Ms. Merchant told Vogue India they couldn’t find a land venue big enough to host all their guests.

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Wanted: A Miracle Worker on Migration

Wanted: an “exceptional leader” with experience in policing, intelligence or the military, who is ready to tackle one of the thorniest issues in British politics.

Days after coming to power, Britain’s government is recruiting a chief for a new Border Security Command to “smash,” the job description says, the smuggling gangs that help asylum seekers arrive from France on small, often unseaworthy, boats.

The search for the border security commander is the first action taken by the new Labour government to address the unauthorized landings that have become an embarrassing symbol of Britain’s failure to control its borders.

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More Than 60 Are Missing in Nepal After Landslide Sweeps Buses Into River

More than 60 people are missing after a landslide swept two moving passenger buses into a river swollen by monsoon rains in central Nepal in the early hours of Friday, officials said.

According to a Nepal Police spokesman, Dan Bahadur Karki, the buses were pushed into the Trishuli River by a landslide that roared over a road connecting Chitwan and Kathmandu, Nepal’s capital city.

A vehicle operated by Angel Bus was heading to Kathmandu, and a Ganapati Deluxe-operated bus was en route to Rautahat from the capital, when the accident occurred at around 3:30 a.m., according to the local police. Mr. Karki said 24 passengers were on the bus traveling to Kathmandu, and 41 were on the other bus.

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Thousands of Prisoners in U.K. to Be Freed Early to Ease Overcrowding

In one of its first big decisions, Britain’s new Labour government on Friday announced the early release of thousands of prisoners, blaming the need to do so on a legacy of neglect and underinvestment under the Conservative Party, which lost last week’s general election after 14 years in power.

With the system nearly at capacity and some of the country’s aged prison buildings crumbling, the plan aims to avoid an overcrowding crisis that some had feared might soon explode.

But with crime a significant political issue, the decision is a sensitive one and the prime minister, Keir Starmer, a former chief prosecutor, lost no time in pointing to his predecessors to explain the need for early releases.

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‘We Want Our Real Lives Back’: For Gazans, Egypt Is Safe, but It’s Not Home

Reporting from Cairo

In Gaza, they owned olive trees, flower gardens, factories, stores and homes they had built and tended for decades. They had memories bound up in family photos, in knickknacks, in embroidered shawls. They had cars to drive, classes to attend, the beach minutes away.

Now, in the Egyptian capital of Cairo, where tens of thousands of Palestinians have fled, they find themselves in rented apartments overlooking concrete. They have few job prospects, dwindling savings and no schools for the children — a new world they know is safe, but hardly feels like a future.

Without legal status in Egypt or clarity about when Gaza might again offer a semblance of normal life, most are stuck: unable to build lives, try their luck in a third country or plan on returning home.

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What NATO’s Warning to China About Russia Means

China’s tight bond with Russia is facing renewed condemnation from Washington and its allies after NATO issued its strongest accusation yet that Chinese technology is sustaining Moscow’s war in Ukraine.

Leaders from the NATO alliance, meeting in Washington, declared that Beijing “cannot enable the largest war in Europe in recent history” without facing repercussions.

Despite a widening web of Western bans and restrictions, Chinese semiconductors, machine tools and other parts have become vital to Russia’s arms industries, helping Moscow to keep up its grinding war, say American and European officials, intelligence agencies and security experts.

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