Statistician Nate Silver released on Tuesday his first election model since Vice President Kamala Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee.

Silver wrote in Substack that although Harris is favored to win the popular vote, she is “a modest underdog to Trump in the Electoral College, risking a repeat of the popular vote-Electoral College split that cost Democrats the 2000 and 2016 elections.”

He added that Harris is in a better position than President Biden was when he was the incumbent challenger. Furthermore, Silver said that Biden had a 27% chance of beating Trump before he withdrew from the race.

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Harris quickly coalesced Democratic Party support in the two days after Biden’s July 21 announcement that he was ending his 2024 re-election bid against former President Trump and endorsing his vice president.

“Harris will give Democrats a fighting chance,” Silver wrote.

He added that the trend of Democrats winning the popular vote could continue: “In fact, she’s a slight favorite over Donald Trump in the popular vote, which Democrats have won in all but one election since 2000. If an election were held today, we’d enter the evening with a lot of uncertainty about the outcome, both because the polling in the pivotal Blue Wall states (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin) has been close since Biden dropped out of the race and because there’s some intrinsic uncertainty about where the race stands given how much news there’s been lately.”

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Silver noted that Biden’s 2020 victory showed a large “Electoral College-popular vote gap” as he barely won several states despite winning the popular vote.

“But this is still a problem for Democrats, and we show Harris as having a slightly wider popular vote-Electoral College gap than Biden had in his version of the forecast,” he said.

Silver is notable for successfully predicting 49 of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election. He also predicted President Barack Obama’s 2012 victory.

As Harris is now considered the party’s presumptive presidential nominee, she is reportedly going to pick her running mate by Tuesday.

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A number of the politicians considered near the top of her list have been campaigning on behalf of the vice president the past few days, including Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro. 

Donna Kelce, the mother of Super Bowl champion brothers Travis and Jason, reposted a critical take of the controversy around the Paris Olympics opening ceremony on Monday.

The opening ceremony was criticized for making a mockery of “The Last Supper” – one of the most revered moments in Christianity. Those defending the segment have claimed the ceremony was meant to resemble the feast of Dionysus.

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Kelce’s repost called for better education and to limit “mindlessly sharing posts.”

“This is what happens when you ban books and limit education,” the Facebook post she shared read. “The Opening Ceremony of the Olympics wasn’t a mock of the Last Supper. If you have any knowledge of the Greek origin of the Olympics and the French’s rich history of theater you would have gotten this. However, because of your veiled homophobia, some of you can’t discern factual information. 

“This is was what went down last night, so do your own research into the Olympics. 

“The scene was a portrayal of a Greek Dionysus Feast celebration, which is a Greek (the origin of the Olympics) celebration of Dionysus (who is also known as Bacchus) who is the god of festivities, ritual, wine, pleasure, and frenzy. The blue guy…..that’s Dionysus. Dionysus was one of the 12 Olympians. 

“The French are known for theatrics.

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“Historical context and education surrounding the Olympics and its origin is important here in this. Many of you fell for the controversy in spun-up click bait. 

“Stop mindlessly sharing posts and do some research.”

The performance ensemble also included drag queens, a transgender model and a naked singer who was stylized to resemble the Greek god Dionysus. The segment received condemnation from athletes and American and Christian leaders alike.

Paris 2024 spokesperson Anne Descamps spoke about it on Sunday.

“Clearly there was never an intention to show disrespect to any religious group. (The opening ceremony) tried to celebrate community tolerance,” Descamps told reporters, via Reuters.

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“We believe this ambition was achieved. If people have taken any offense, we are really sorry.”

Famed fitness guru Jillian Michaels says the Last Supper mockery at the Olympics opening ceremony was a “big F. U.” to two billion Christians around the world. 

Michaels, a lesbian, went viral on Saturday with her message to her “fellow gays” about the drag queen depiction of the iconic biblical scene made famous by Leonardo da Vinci as part of the Olympics in Paris. 

“We demand tolerance and respect but then make a mockery of something sacred for over 2 billion Christians. This type of hypocrisy and lack of understanding is a bad look,” Michaels wrote on X. “We get outraged when the extreme right bashes us, but then we do this s—. What kind of reaction do you think they will have towards the LGBTQ+ community after this. This is NOT how we break down barriers, it’s how you build them.”

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In an interview with Fox News Digital, Michaels shed light on why she believed the offensive display took place.

“There’s a history for the gay community feeling that religious communities have issues with gay marriage. And as you know, gay marriage comes with 1100+ federal rights,” Michaels said. “I completely understand if it’s not in your religion, and you don’t want to have gay marriages in your church or in your temple or in your mosque.”

“But there’s an acrimony there. And I think I’m not trying to attack anybody who’s religious. I want them to understand where I think some of this, like, thumbing your nose at religion, is coming from. Now, with that said, we have been given the right to marry. We are able to adopt children and there is significantly more tolerance and more acceptance. And instead of appreciating that, acknowledging that, and showing the same respect in kind, the gay community takes something that’s sacred to two billion Christians and makes a mockery of it.” 

“Why would you not behave in the way you’re hoping to be treated, right? Treat people the way you want to be treated. You want to be included. You want to be respected. So to do that, in my opinion, was a big F.U. That’s how I saw it. And I think that’s how many people saw it.”

There’s been mixed messaging from Olympic organizers over what was behind the drag scene, with one spokesperson reportedly admitting to the New York Post that creative director Thomas Jolly took inspiration from da Vinci’s painting. Others have claimed no offense was intended, and it was merely a nod to Greek mythology.

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Michaels’ podcast “Keeping it Real” has been picked up by Bill Maher’s media company Club Random Studios, which produces other podcasts including Maher’s “Club Random” and former ESPN host Sage Steele‘s “The Sage Steele Show.” 

“Bill is known for his unique brand of anti-woke liberalism, and his goal is to elevate unique voices that are searching for the truth, that are open to differing opinions that share their own opinion with empathy and tolerance,” Michael said. “I believe for Bill, it’s deeply alarming- the cancel culture that does continue. And it is a top priority for Bill and Co. to create a platform where their hosts can be uncancelable. So they’re empowering us to explore these conversations in a fearless manner.”

2024 SUMMER OLYMPICS: LIVE UPDATES

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The A-list personal trainer found an ally in Maher when he publicly defended her after she was criticized in 2020 for saying the country shouldn’t celebrate pop star Lizzo’s obesity. 

“And I have loved him ever since,” Michaels said. “And he’s essentially doing that and having the backs of all of his hosts so we can essentially evolve the conversation, open people’s minds a bit, hopefully end up bringing people together, make the world a bit less divisive and support people in leveling up.”

This Election Day will be a big one for me personally: It’s exactly the 10th anniversary of my mother’s death, I’ll be six months pregnant with my first child, and our rabidly partisan politics will have everyone talking as though being born or dying is less important than whether your team wins the White House. 

I found out I was pregnant the same day as former President Donald Trump was convicted on 34 felony counts. I heard the heartbeat for the first time the same day as President Biden’s disastrous debate performance. I started writing this piece the same day as Trump’s assassination attempt. 

What a world I get to tell my kid about. What a decade my mom missed. 

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I’m glad, before the birth of my first, that I wrote a book (“I Used to Like You Until,” out in September, available for pre-order !) telling him or her how not to view the world and those who live in it — that is, through a binary lens.

It’s something my mother also taught me… or, more accurately, me. A woman who was such a walking example of Impossible-to-Categorize that I once overheard the nurses at the hospital where she died describe her as “that lady, the one with all of the pictures of the pope and the dick jokes.” 

I never expected to find myself in this situation. Actually, I’d prepared myself for every outcome but this one: First, I expected that I wouldn’t get pregnant, especially not naturally. Once I did, I expected that I’d probably miscarry. I mean, I 35, which makes mine a geriatric pregnancy, medically speaking. If you listen to some of the dudes in the comments section, you’d be shocked a 35-year-old woman found anyone to have sex with her at all! 

Finding out I was pregnant was also nothing like I thought it would be. In my imagination, I would wake my husband, who would sit up abruptly, look at the test, and be overwhelmed by this life-changing moment, leading us into a passionate embrace that we’d remember for the rest of our lives. 

The reality? I had a hard time waking him up, and when I finally did rouse him, he said he couldn’t really see the line and rolled back over to sleep. 

For me, too, it was less of an arresting moment, and more of a slow realization: The line kept getting darker. Then a blood test confirmed it. Then a week went by, and then another. We heard the heartbeat for the first time, and then we heard it again. It was never this exciting emotional rush of Because I was far too aware of all the things that could go wrong to become intoxicated by such an impassioned reaction.

There was also something else working against the possibility of me experiencing all-encompassing astonishment, and that was, well, I was just too damn tired.

Before I got pregnant, I’d heard that the first trimester could be “exhausting,” and I thought I could imagine what that might feel like. I have, after all, always pushed the limits of physical possibility. I frequently work for weeks on end without a single day off, including many instances when my touring and television schedules have left me time for just three hours of sleep three nights in a row. On the flip side, I’ve also been one to come home from nights out long past the sunrise. I’ve been both the person heading out to work the person heading home from the club at the hours when the city sees those two groups of people meet. 

Those two scenarios may seem to conflict, but they have one thing in common: The exhaustion that they left me with was a physical manifestation of things I loved about myself: The Hardest Working Woman I Know, The Most Fun Girl at the Party. Both had always been intrinsic to my identity, and I’d worn them as a badge of honor. 

But pregnancy exhaustion is worse. I’ve had insomnia my entire life, with fears about the future racing through my brain as I desperately try to fall asleep. These days, I’m literally always ready for a nap — even though I might have more to be afraid of now than ever. Like, I’m about to have a baby, and I don’t even know how to hold one!

Before pregnancy, the exhaustion was proof that I was hardworking and fun. Now, as a pregnant woman, I fear I will never be those things again. I see every break I need from work as a sign that I’ve gotten too soft. I see every time I need to decline an invitation because I’m too tired as a sign that I’ve gotten too boring. I fear that I’m losing the exact things I’ve loved about myself for so long… and all of this only compounded by the realization that it’s not like life’s gonna get any easier once there’s a little dumb human living outside of me that I’m responsible for keeping alive.

It can be really, really hard, and I can be really, really hard on myself. Let me tell you, early pregnancy will have you waking up after a full night of sleep feeling like you just spent 37 straight hours partying in Berlin, not only in terms of exhaustion, but also in terms of emotional stability… that is, having absolutely none at all.

There were moments that I felt tired and hopeless that I would just completely break down crying and say:

So why I allow myself to get knocked up, even though it’s so embarrassing to get pregnant by a man? For one thing, my husband just absolutely rules as a dude. I never wanted kids before I met him, but meeting him made me feel like it could actually be a cool thing to do. Part of it was feeling like something was missing in my life. Part of it was simply that I was curious. Part of it was that, well, I low-key felt like I had done everything else already. Part of it was, as ridiculous as this sounds, I thought that it would be funny. Not that the baby is a bit — like, except for in the way that everything kind of is, but you know what I mean — but more so that I know there would be lots of laughs along the way, and laughing is my favorite thing about being alive. 

Every reason to have a child sounds kind of selfish, doesn’t it? But then you’re also called selfish if you have children. The only way around it, it seems, is to be, well, a man.

Anyway! I’m sure that women who have been pregnant before are probably reading this like, “Yeah, bro. I felt bad too; you’re not special.” But my point in writing all of this is not that I think I’m some kind of unique victim. It’s the opposite!

I feel a sense of unity and solidarity with all the women who have gone through this. If I’m being honest, though, I also feel sadness about there being one woman in particular whom I’ll never be able to share this connection with: my mom. 

Don’t get me wrong, I’m very excited to be pregnant. I’m lucky to be able to do this, and to do it as part of a relationship that has given me the kind of happiness, security, and peace I once doubted could have ever been possible for me. 

I feel a sense of unity and solidarity with all the women who have gone through this. If I’m being honest, though, I also feel sadness about there being one woman in particular whom I’ll never be able to share this connection with: my mom. 

Still, it’s felt cruel, at times disorienting, and a bit unfair to have to try and figure out how to be a mother when I can hardly remember what it’s like to have one. It’s not that I don’t remember , of course. It’s just that, after Nov. 5, 2014, everything I’ve done, I’ve done without her. I got my job at Fox News without a mom. I got into and out of a seriously abusive relationship with a narcissist without a mom. I became a New York Times bestselling author without a mom. I got married without a mom. 

Ten years later, I am an entirely different person — which is a great thing, as anyone who somehow endured the 20-something version of me will tell you. But the fact that I don’t recognize this person from the past is also to say I don’t recognize the last version of myself that will ever be a person with a mother.

Ten years is a long time. The fact that it’s been that long will be at the top of my mind this Nov. 5… all as The Discourse pretends that the only thing worth considering will be the election. 

But guess what? The fact that I’ll have something else on my mind on that day also doesn’t make me a unique victim. Many people will have things on their minds that aren’t politics. 

I do want to acknowledge that Election Day is probably a little easier for me, politically speaking, because I count myself among the millions of Americans who are independent. I am not a Democrat or a Republican, but I do have meaningful relationships with both.

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One underlying theme in the new book is the way that politics makes us fight with the people we actually know on behalf of people who don’t even know we exist. As I write in its introduction: “All too often, we will let a single difference in viewpoint or association be enough to write off another person entirely, even if we know nothing else about them.” Worse? Politicians weaponize this division for the sake of their own power at the expense of our relationships with each other.

I’ve faced this firsthand quite a few times. In fact, you might have done it to me as you’ve been reading! Perhaps, my admission that I’m not in either party has angered you, because you think I’d have to be an idiot to not be in yours. There are others still who will see that this piece is on FoxNews.com and think that tells them enough to know that they don’t want to click on it at all. 

I’m not, of course, saying that politics doesn’t impact our lives. It absolutely does! But we also shouldn’t invent unnecessary impacts based on incorrect assumptions.

The stuff that transcends politics, and why it’s so important transcend politics, is what my new book is about. It’s also something that I also hope to bring to my project after that, which will be, of course, the kid. I want my child to realize, for example, that a woman having a room full of pictures of the pope doesn’t mean she won’t also have some great dick jokes.

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And if you’re tempted to judge me for using my pregnancy to sell books? Well, first of all, you read this for free, and I wrote this for $0. Second, babies are expensive, especially in New York City… and also, if it doesn’t sell well, I’ll see it as devastating confirmation of my lifelong fear that I can’t be a mother and a woman with a thriving career at the same time. 

And if you’re tempted to judge me for using my mother’s death? Be careful about judging what you don’t know. Because, chances are, you didn’t know her, and even if you did, you probably still don’t know what she said to me on her deathbed, something I can still hear her say this entire decade later: 

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