The New York Times 2024-08-01 00:10:13


Live Updates: Killing of Top Hamas Leader in Iran Raises Risk of Wider War

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Patrick KingsleyFarnaz FassihiAdam Rasgon and Ronen Bergman

Here’s the latest on the assassination.

Ismail Haniyeh, one of the most senior Hamas leaders, was assassinated in Iran, the country’s Revolutionary Guards Corps and Hamas said on Wednesday, a severe blow to the Palestinian group that threatens to engulf the region in further conflict.

Both Iran and Hamas accused Israel of killing Mr. Haniyeh, who led the group’s political operations from exile in Qatar. He was in Tehran to attend the inauguration of the newly elected president of Iran, Hamas’s main backer, and it was not clear how the killing was carried out.

Hours before the assassination, Israel said it had struck Fuad Shukr, a senior member of Hezbollah, a Lebanese militia that is also backed by Iran and has been fighting a low-level war with Israel since October. The two strikes have suddenly shifted the calculus in the Middle East, after a month in which Israel and Hamas had appeared to edge closer to a cease-fire in Gaza. Such a deal was expected to lead to a truce between Israel and Hezbollah.

Now, the focus is on how Hamas and Hezbollah will respond to the attacks on their leaders; how Iran will react to a strike on its territory; and whether either reaction leads to the outbreak of a wider regional war. An Israeli strike on Iranian commanders in Syria in April led Iran to fire hundreds of missiles at Israel. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said Haniyeh’s assassination would prompt a “harsh punishment.”

Mr. Haniyeh was a key figure in Hamas’s cease-fire negotiations with Israel, and his assassination makes the prospects for a deal even more unclear. The United States was not informed of the strike that killed Mr. Haniyeh ahead of time, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said during a trip to Singapore on Wednesday, adding that the Biden administration was continuing to focus on de-escalating the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.

Israel’s military has not commented on Mr. Haniyeh’s death and said it does not respond to reports in the foreign news media. In recent years it has carried out a number of high-profile assassinations in Iran, rattling the country’s leaders and prompting a security overhaul including the ouster of a top security official.

Here’s what else to know:

  • While Israel rarely comments on its actions in Iran, it is usually more open about its strikes in Lebanon. On Tuesday night, the Israeli military swiftly announced a separate strike in Beirut’s southern suburbs on Mr. Shukr, who it described as a senior commander responsible for a strike on Saturday that killed 12 children and teenagers in an Israeli-controlled town. It is unclear how Hezbollah will respond to a particularly brazen strike on a senior commander in the Lebanese capital.

  • Mr. Haniyeh had long played a central role in Hamas, helping lead the group through multiple wars with Israel and through elections, though it is unclear how much control he and other exiled Hamas political leaders exercised over the group’s leaders in Gaza and its military wing, which carried out the Oct. 7 attack. Read the full obituary here.

  • Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, takes office facing the major security breach of failing to protect an ally. It raises questions about the safety of Iran’s top leaders who were in close contact with Mr. Haniyeh. The country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, met with him on Tuesday.

Gabby Sobelman, Isabel Kershner and Aaron Boxerman contributed reporting.

Anger, apathy and remorse: Gazans react to the death of Ismail Haniyeh.

Palestinians in Gaza received the news of the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, with mixed emotions: Some said they worried that his assassination could further stall cease-fire negotiations while others said that his death was of no concern to a population that has been suffering for nearly ten months of war.

“It was expected but we also didn’t think it would happen right now because he was under Iran’s protection,” said Reda Shahyon, a 42-year-old mother of two in Deir al Balah, in central Gaza. Ms. Shahyon said that when she heard that Mr. Haniyeh had been assassinated in Iran, she “didn’t care because his soul is not more precious than those of the people who are dying every day.”

Ms. Shahyon was among a growing number of Palestinians in Gaza who have expressed anger at the group that planned and led the Oct. 7 attack, which prompted Israel to launch its ferocious response in Gaza, devastating the lives of many civilians.

“He didn’t go through the suffering of displacement or hunger or feel any of these things we are feeling,” she said of Mr. Haniyeh. “He was sitting in a mansion, dignified, while we were dying of hunger and thirst and humiliation,” she added.

In April, three of Mr. Haniyeh’s sons and several of his grandchildren were killed in an Israeli strike near Gaza City. But Mr. Haniyeh had been living in Doha, Qatar.

Ms. Shahyon said that she did not think Mr. Haniyeh’s death would hamper the cease-fire negotiations with Israel, which were already facing many obstacles. “We are not worried about the negotiations, the situation is already at its worst,” she said.

Jumaa Shuheibar, a 36-year-old from Gaza City who is sheltering in central Gaza and who lost a leg during the war, said that he was neither a supporter nor an opponent of Hamas, but added that the group made the lives of Gazans more miserable. “I think he did not even care about what happened to the people in the tents,” he said.

“As a breadwinner, I was working hard to bring my family the basics to survive, and now I lost my leg and I cannot even find any job,” said Mr. Shuheiber. “For me, I think Hamas is finished now after the killing of many of its leaders.”

But for Riyad al-Masri, a 30-year-old from Gaza City who was displaced to southern Gaza, Mr. Haniyeh’s assassination raised concern about the future of the talks and fear that they would collapse. Like some in the enclave, he saw Mr. Haniyeh as an experienced leader and hoped that a potential cease-fire deal would not die with him.

“I was upset for Haniyeh, especially since he had a vision for leading the cause, unlike Sinwar,” he added, referring to the group’s leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, who is seen as a key decision maker in how the talks progress.

Ibrahim al-Khor, a 20-year-old from Gaza City who is sheltering in central Gaza, was hopeful that the assassination was a sign that Israel was closer to achieving its goal of eliminating Hamas and thus more willing to stop the fighting.

“I hope Haniyeh’s death can stop the war at this time,” said Mr. al-Khor while filling up gallons of water from a United Nations school turned shelter in Deir al Balah. “However, I think this war will end the way it started: out of the blue,” he added.

Iyad Abuheweila contributed reporting from Istanbul and Abu Bakr Bashir from London.

Israel’s military chief, Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, said on Wednesday, “We have confidence in our planned moves going forward.” In a visit to the the northern border region, he said the military’s intention was to change conditions in southern Lebanon, and not tolerate Hezbollah’s presence so close to Israel. In a statement, the military said it was preparing “for combat in the northern arena,” practicing “a variety of extreme scenarios,” including “combat in a built-up area.”

Israel and Hamas were “a short distance away” from a truce under a recent U.S.-backed proposal, said al-Hayya. But Israel demanded new conditions to the agreement and then killed Haniyeh “so as to provoke the entire region,” he added. Israel has said that it was Hamas that raised new demands.

Hamas will not change its main goals in cease-fire talks with Israel in the wake of Haniyeh’s assassination, a senior Hamas official, Khalil al-Hayya, said at a news conference in Tehran. “The absence of one comrade or another does not change the movement’s compass on any issues,” al-Hayya said. Hamas has demanded a permanent cease-fire, while Israeli leaders have vowed that the war will only end with Hamas’s surrender or its destruction.

Asked how Haniyeh was killed, Al-Hayya told reporters that a rocket entered the room where he was, blowing out windows and damaging walls. He declined to comment further, saying Iranian security agencies were investigating the incident.

The strikes add another hurdle to already troubled cease-fire talks.

The assassination of the Hamas political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was likely to further complicate already stalled talks to reach a truce between Israel and the Palestinian armed group, officials and analysts said.

Israel and Hamas have been negotiating for months over a cease-fire proposal that would see the release of the 115 living and dead hostages still in Gaza. The talks have been mediated by Qatar and Egypt, with involvement from the United States.

One of the leading Hamas figures in the negotiations, Mr. Haniyeh saw the value in reaching a cease-fire deal for the Palestinian armed group and had pushed for breakthroughs in the talks, said two diplomats, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

But while Mr. Haniyeh was nominally Hamas’s political chief, his influence was more limited that the title suggested. Yahya Sinwar, its leader in Gaza, wielded a decisive veto on any cease-fire proposal due to his control on the ground in the enclave, according to U.S. and Israeli officials.

The killing of Mr. Haniyeh would likely halt the talks, at least temporarily, while Hamas sought to regroup and respond to the attack, according to one of the diplomats and an Israeli official familiar with the negotiations.

Cease-fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas to reach a deal were already troubled. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel had added a series of new demands in advance of a meeting between Israeli, Egyptian, Qatari and U.S. intelligence chiefs on Sunday that appeared to bring little progress.

Critics have accused Mr. Netanyahu of prioritizing his own political survival over clinching a deal to bring back the hostages held in Gaza. His far-right coalition partners, some of whom support resettling Gaza, have rejected a cease-fire deal that would leave Hamas in power.

Mr. Netanyahu has vowed not to the end the war before the destruction of Hamas’s governing and military capabilities. The killing of Mr. Haniyeh brought Israel a step closer toward its goal of eliminating Hamas’s leadership, but it was unclear if that was enough for Mr. Netanyahu.

“One interpretation could have been that this would be the picture of victory that allow Netanyahu to wind down the war,” said Dahlia Scheindlin, an Israeli political analyst and pollster. “The other interpretation is that this is an act of escalation and there’s stronger evidence that it was meant as an act of escalation.”

Einav Zangauker, whose son Matan was taken hostage during the Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7, said on social media she hoped Mr. Haniyeh’s death did not put an end to the talks.

“Eliminating Haniyeh must not lead to the thwarting of the deal, passing a death sentence on our loved ones in captivity,” Ms. Zanguaker said.

Some Israeli analysts speculated that Mr. Haniyeh’s assassination would pressure Hamas to concede to terms more favorable to Israel in the negotiations. But Hamas could also harden its positions when it returns to the talks, demanding that Israel agree not to assassinate Hamas leaders abroad in addition to Gaza and the West Bank, according to Ibrahim Dalalsha, an expert on Palestinian affairs.

The Israeli official indicated both scenarios were possible but that it was too soon to tell.

Mr. Dalalsha said he expected Hamas wouldn’t return to the negotiating table in the near term.

“If anyone were to call Hamas officials about negotiations now, they would think they’re crazy,” said Mr. Dalalsha, director of the Horizon Center, a Palestinian political research group. “But if you call back in a couple weeks, they might take a look at your proposal.”

World leaders fear a longer war in Gaza and escalation elsewhere.

Many world leaders and top diplomats condemned the assassination of the senior Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on Wednesday, expressing concern that his death could lead to further violence in the Middle East. Some feared that the killing of a central figure in the talks to end the fighting in Gaza could undo the modest progress there.

Qatar’s prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, cast doubt on the prospects of future mediation efforts. Qatar has played a key role in brokering talks between Israel and Hamas.

“Political assassinations & continued targeting of civilians in Gaza while talks continue leads us to ask, how can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on other side?” Sheikh Mohammed, who has led Qatar’s mediation efforts, wrote on social media. “Peace needs serious partners.”

Qatar, a Persian Gulf nation, has acted as a bridge between Hamas and Western nations, while also maintaining informal ties with Israel. Mr. Haniyeh had been living in exile in Qatar since 2017, leading Hamas’s political faction from there.

Just days ago, senior officials from Israel, Egypt, Qatar and the United States met in Rome to discuss a cease-fire. Egypt’s foreign ministry said the overnight strike was a “dangerous escalation,” warning in a statement against “fueling conflict in the region.” It said the attack, combined with stalled progress in the cease-fire negotiations, showed that Israel lacked the political will to calm the situation.

China condemned the assassination and warned that it would lead to further instability. “We are deeply concerned that this incident may lead to escalation and turbulence in the region,” said Lin Jian, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

Beijing hosted talks last week between the two main Palestinian factions, Hamas and Fatah, in a bid to create a united Palestinian government that would rule Gaza once the war ended.

Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said the assassination aimed to “interrupt the rightful struggle of Palestinians and demoralize them.”

Mr. Erdogan has previously lashed out at Israel and dismissed the categorization of Hamas as a terror organization. In a show of solidarity, Turkey’s Parliament had planned to host Mr. Haniyeh next month, in a direct response to the address to the U.S. Congress by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel last week, said Omer Celik, a governing party spokesman.

The Kremlin, which has also hosted top Hamas leaders, called for restraint as it criticized the assassination.

“There is no doubt that the killing of Ismail Haniyeh will have an extremely negative impact on the progress of mediated contacts between Hamas and Israel,” a spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, Andrei Nastasyin, said at a news briefing.

Diplomats in Persian Gulf states blamed Israel for the assassination, warning that it could destabilize the region. Hamas has said Israel was behind the killing, but Israel has not discussed it publicly.

Oman, a Gulf sultanate, described the assassination as a “flagrant violation of international law” and called on the international community to “intervene immediately to stop the Israeli aggression and continuing illegitimate occupation of Palestinian lands.”

Jordan’s foreign minister, Ayman Safadi, said on social media that Israel’s aggression in Gaza “will drag the region toward more wars and destruction.”

The United States has been Israel’s staunchest ally during the war, and its top diplomat, Antony J. Blinken, did not criticize Israel on Wednesday, saying that the White House was still determined to see through a cease-fire deal.

“All I can tell you right now is nothing takes away from the importance, as I said a moment ago, of getting to the cease-fire,” Mr. Blinken said at a public talk on U.S. foreign policy in Singapore.

“I’m not going to speculate on what impact any one event might have,” he added.

Safak Timur, Anton Troianovski, Vivian Yee, Edward Wong and Vivian Nereim contributed reporting.

Here’s a closer look at Hamas’s most prominent remaining leaders.

Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed on Wednesday in Iran, was among the most senior members of Hamas’s leadership, a group that is tightly coordinated despite being scattered inside and outside Gaza.

Hamas’s leaders, especially those in Gaza, have repeatedly been targets of Israeli assassination attempts, but the group has swiftly replaced those who have been killed.

The group’s leadership structure is often opaque, but here is a look at what we know about some of Hamas’s most prominent leaders who are either believed to be alive or whose fate is unclear.

Yahya Sinwar, the head of Hamas in Gaza

Mr. Sinwar helped establish Hamas in the late 1980s around the time of a Palestinian uprising against Israeli rule. He was arrested by the Israeli authorities several times, spending over 20 years in Israeli prison until he was released in a prisoner exchange in 2011.

After rising through Hamas’s ranks, he was elected its leader in Gaza in 2017. Israeli officials said that he was one of the leaders who had masterminded the Oct. 7 attack, alongside Mohammed Deif, the commander of Hamas’s military wing in Gaza, and Marwan Issa, the deputy commander, who was killed in an Israeli strike in March. Mr. Sinwar is believed to be hiding in the group’s tunnel network beneath Gaza.

A number of Hamas’s leaders in Gaza, including Mr. Sinwar, are seen as more radical than Mr. Haniyeh, the leader who was killed in Iran. The death of Mr. Haniyeh, who was considered a relatively pragmatic counterpoint, “will make a cease-fire much more difficult to achieve,” said Hugh Lovatt, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Khaled Meshal, a former political head of Hamas

Born near the West Bank city of Ramallah, Mr. Meshal became the leader of Hamas’s political office in 1996, directing the group from exile. Two years later, Israeli agents injected him with a slow-acting poison in Jordan, sending him into a coma before he was saved by an antidote provided by Israel as part of a diplomatic deal with Jordan.

Mr. Meshal spent his career moving from one Arab nation to another, living in Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar and Syria. When he stepped down as head of the political office, he was succeeded in 2017 by Mr. Haniyeh. Mr. Meshal, who is still influential in the organization, remains a top official in the group.

Mohammed Deif, the commander of Hamas’s military

Mr. Deif, another of the suspected planners of the Oct. 7 attacks, joined Hamas as a young man soon after its founding. In 2002, he became the leader of Hamas’s military wing, the Qassam Brigades, succeeding its founder, who was killed in an Israeli strike. Mr. Deif has since orchestrated multiple attacks on Israel, including a series of suicide bombings in 1996.

Earlier this month, Israeli forces bombarded a densely packed coastal area of Gaza with heavy munitions in an attempt to kill Mr. Deif. Scores of Gazans were killed in the attack. Israel has said it believes he may have been killed, but his fate remained unclear.

He had been at the top of Israel’s list of most-wanted terrorists for decades, earlier evading more than eight attempts on his life, according to Israeli intelligence. In 2014, an Israeli airstrike killed one of his wives and their infant son. Israeli officials believe that Mr. Deif, who for years has not been seen publicly, has spent much of the past decades in Hamas’s underground tunnels.

Khalil al-Hayya, the deputy leader of Hamas in Gaza

Mr. al-Hayya, who lives in exile, has been a Hamas official for decades and is currently Mr. Sinwar’s deputy. He survived an Israeli assassination attempt in 2007, when an airstrike on his home in Gaza killed members of his family while he was not there.

He was thought to be a contender to succeed Mr. Haniyeh in future internal Hamas elections, Mr. Lovatt said.

Mousa Abu Marzouk, a member of Hamas’s top political bureau

One of Hamas’s founders, Mr. Abu Marzouk started his political career in the United Arab Emirates, where he helped found a branch of the Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood, from which Hamas was formed, according to the European Council on Foreign Relations.

He later went to the United States, where he helped found Islamic institutions, including those focused on the Palestinian cause. In 1996, he faced Israeli charges of financing and helping organize terrorist attacks, when he headed Hamas’s political bureau. After 22 months spent in a Manhattan jail on suspicion of terrorism, he agreed to relinquish his permanent residence status in the United States and said he would not contest the terrorism accusations that led to his detention. The United States then deported him to Jordan.

He is now a senior member of the political bureau and splits his time between Gaza, Egypt and Qatar. He is another member of the cast of likely successors to Mr. Haniyeh, Mr. Lovatt said.

Israel’s foreign minister, Israel Katz, said an escalation with the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon could be averted if both sides implemented a never-enforced resolution that the U.N. Security Council issued in 2006, after the last major war between Israel and Hezbollah. The resolution called for Hezbollah’s withdrawal from the Israeli border, among other stipulations. “The only way to prevent an all-out war is the immediate implementation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701,” Katz said in a statement.

The official comments coming from Iran — from the Revolutionary Guards, Ayatollah Khamenei and now Iran’s mission to the U.N. — all say that Iran will retaliate for Haniyeh’s killing on its soil, as much for vengeance as to deter future attacks. Its mission to the U.N. said on social media: “The response to the operation will indeed be a special operation, harder and intended to instill deep regret in the perpetrator.”

Some Israelis celebrate, while others brace for retaliation.

The streets of Jerusalem seemed unusually quiet on Wednesday, the air pregnant with trepidation about an expected response to the killings of senior figures in Hezbollah and Hamas.

Israel claimed responsibility for one of the killings, an assassination in Beirut, Lebanon, on Tuesday night of Fuad Shukr, a senior official in the Iran-backed militia Hezbollah. But it was mum in the hours after a second targeted killing, in Tehran early Wednesday, of the Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, who had been visiting the Iranian capital for the inauguration of the new Iranian president.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel instructed his country’s officials to refrain from commenting on the Tehran strike, but not all complied as some ministers of the right-wing government were unable to contain their satisfaction.

“Careful What You Wish For,” Amichai Chikli, the Israeli minister of diaspora affairs, wrote on social media above footage of Mr. Haniyeh sitting alongside Iranian leaders at a rally with chants of “Death to Israel” in the background.

A supermarket in the city of Beit Shean, in northern Israel, offered customers free refreshments from a table decorated with Israeli flags and a portrait of Mr. Haniyeh bearing the word, “Eliminated.”

Israel’s main television channels switched from normal summer programing to the constant live news and panel discussions more typical of wartime.

In a discussion on Channel 12, Amos Gilad, a general in the Israeli reserves, called the killings “an amazing achievement.” Avi Benayahu, a former military spokesman, said that the actions showed Israel “at its finest, in its darkest hour.”

But the developments also raised questions about Israel’s longer-term strategy.

The attention of many in Israel immediately turned to the fate of the negotiations for a cease-fire with Hamas and the release of hostages held in Gaza. Relatives of the hostages expressed uncertainty and concern.

Amit Levy, brother of Naama Levy, who was abducted from an army base during the Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7, said he could not tell what effect the assassinations would have on the prospects for a deal.

“I’m not a military man or a decision maker in the room, and I don’t know if it helps or hinders,” he said in a telephone interview. But he said that he hoped the military and political leaders took the fate of the hostages into account in their plans. Ms. Levy turned 20 in captivity.

Aviva Siegel, 63, was released from captivity last November under a previous deal but left her husband, Keith Siegel, in Gaza.

“Hearing the news in the morning got me up in quite a shock, sad — sadder — and worried,” Ms. Siegel said on Wednesday. She added that she could not imagine spending nearly 300 days in Gaza, as the remaining hostages have. “I was there for only 51 days,” she said, “and I felt like I was going to die all the time.”

Ofer Cassif, a far-left Israeli lawmaker, accused Mr. Netanyahu of jeopardizing the safety of the hostages.

“Haniyeh was a hardened war criminal, but that’s not the point,” Mr. Cassif wrote in a social media post. “The issue is the giving up of the abductees and deliberately sacrificing them to death in agony.” He described Mr. Netanyahu and his supporters as “pyromaniacs” bent on igniting the region.

In Tel Aviv, the city was more or less business as usual.

Ben Pollins, 27, a tourist from London, had traveled for a friend’s wedding and was staying at a downtown hotel.

The Israeli military issued a statement at about 8 a.m. saying that there were no immediate changes in defensive guidelines for the public.

“So far everything seems normal,” Mr. Pollins said by phone. But he was aware of the risk of retaliation. “It’s nerve-racking,” he said.

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, will perform the Islamic prayer of the dead on Mr. Haniyeh’s body on Thursday, a gesture that is considered an honor and saved for the highest ranking officials, Iranian news media reported. The event will be held at the campus of Tehran University, where state funerals are held.

Lloyd Austin, the U.S. defense secretary, spoke with Yoav Gallant, the Israeli defense minister, following the assassinations in Tehran and Beirut, Gallant’s office said in a statement. Gallant briefed Austin on the strike on Fuad Shukr, the high-ranking Hezbollah commander that Israel said it killed last night, the statement said. The statement did not mention the death of Haniyeh in Tehran, which Israel has refused to discuss publicly. Gallant told Austin that Israel was continuing its efforts to reach a deal to free hostages in Gaza, according to his office.

Double strikes raise the risk of escalation, but all-out war is not inevitable.

Through nearly 10 months of intense war with Hamas in Gaza, Israel has fought a parallel, slower-paced conflict with Hamas’s allies across the Middle East in which all sides have risked major escalation but ultimately avoided dragging the region into a bigger, multi-front war.

The attacks on two of Israel’s leading foes on Tuesday and Wednesday have created one of the biggest challenges to that equilibrium since the fighting began in October.

Israel’s Tuesday night strike on Fuad Shukr, a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut, was the first time during this war that Israel has targeted such an influential Hezbollah leader in Lebanon’s capital. Hours later, the killing in Iran of Hamas’s political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was considered the most brazen breach of Iran’s defenses since October.

Taken together, the seniority of the targets, the sensitive location of the strikes and their near simultaneity were viewed as a particularly provocative escalation that has left the region fearing an even bigger response from Iran and its regional proxies, including Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq. The scale of that reaction could determine whether the low-level regional battle between Israel and the Iranian alliance tips into a full-scale, all-out conflict.

Some analysts said the killing of Mr. Haniyeh, Hamas’s top negotiator, also made a cease-fire deal in Gaza less likely in the immediate future. Israelis hoped that the killing of such an influential leader would eventually help break Hamas’s resolve, making the group more willing to compromise in the long term. But others said that the organization was unlikely to be seriously affected by Mr. Haniyeh’s death.

Despite his title as Hamas’s political leader, Mr. Haniyeh is replaceable, said Joost Hiltermann, the Middle East and North Africa program director for the International Crisis Group.

“Hamas will survive,” he said. “They have plenty of other leaders.”

Analysts also said that both Iran and Hezbollah had reasons to respond in ways that make all-out war less likely. For Iran, the attack on its soil was embarrassing but not catastrophic because it targeted a foreign guest rather than senior Iranian officials, according to Andreas Krieg, an expert on the Middle East at King’s College, London.

“I don’t think necessarily that the Iranians’ strategic calculus has changed,” Mr. Krieg said.

“Iran will have to respond in some way,” he said. “But it’s not a turning point.”

Hezbollah faces more pressure to react than Iran because the strike on Beirut hit one of its own commanders, rather than one of its allies, according to Michael Stephens, a non-resident expert on the Middle East at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a Philadelphia-based research organization. But it is by no means clear that Mr. Haniyeh’s death in Iran will change Hezbollah’s calculations in Lebanon, Mr. Stephens said.

“We need to be very clear and very careful about how we conflate the two issues,” Mr. Stephens said. “Over the past nine months, Hezbollah has repeatedly shown that what happens to Hamas is not related to Hezbollah’s strategic imperatives. That doesn’t mean there won’t be conflict. I just think the route to getting there is more complex than it seems.”

Past experiences show that de-escalation is still possible. In January, Israeli strikes killed a senior Hamas leader in Hezbollah’s stronghold in Beirut, leading to fears that Hezbollah would mount a particularly fierce response on Hamas’s behalf. Days later, Hezbollah instead chose what was construed as a largely symbolic response, firing a barrage of rockets at an Israeli army base that caused little damage.

After Israel killed several Iranian commanders in Syria in April, Iran responded with one of the biggest barrages of cruise and ballistic missiles in military history. After a symbolic Israeli counterstrike, the two sides then chose to step back from the brink.

The double assassination could also provide a way out of the war altogether by allowing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel to claim a symbolic victory, giving him space to back down in Gaza and perhaps agree to a cease-fire.

But Mr. Netanyahu may still avoid doing so if he believes a truce would collapse his government; his ruling coalition relies on far-right lawmakers who have threatened to quit the alliance if the war ends without Hamas’s defeat.

Vivian Yee contributed reporting.

The Qatari prime minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, appeared to accuse Israel of assassinating Haniyeh in a post on social media. “How can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side?” wrote Al Thani, one of the main mediators in the cease-fire talks between Israel and Hamas. “Peace needs serious partners & a global stance against the disregard for human life.” Israel has not commented on the assassination.

Haniyeh’s death will shake but not destroy Hamas, analysts say.

Ismail Haniyeh was the top figure managing Hamas’s international relations and one of the group’s most recognizable faces worldwide. From his base in Doha, Qatar, he helped lead Hamas in high-stakes negotiations for a cease-fire in Gaza, and he delivered fiery speeches broadcast throughout the Arab world.

But his killing in Iran, for which Tehran and Hamas blamed Israel, is unlikely to destabilize Hamas in the long term, analysts say, noting that the group has recovered from past assassinations of political and military leaders.

“His assassination is a major blow,” Ibrahim Madhoun, an Istanbul-based analyst close to Hamas, said in an interview. But, he added, “Hamas has faced this situation in the past” and “came out of those scenarios stronger.”

The long list of Hamas leaders killed by Israel includes Ahmed Yassin, Hamas’s founder and spiritual leader, in 2004; Salah Shehadeh, the founder of Hamas’s armed wing, in 2002; Abdel Aziz Rantisi, a senior Hamas leader in Gaza, in 2004; and Ahmed al-Jabari, a top commander, in 2012.

For decades, Mr. Haniyeh’s name was synonymous with that of Hamas as he served in some of the most prominent positions in the group. He also played a balancing role between Hamas’s military and political wings.

But a reliance by Hamas on its institutions, and not specific individuals, has helped it overcome the killings of its leaders in the past, said Mkhaimar Abusada, a professor of political science from Gaza City.

“There’s a focus on certain people in Hamas,” he said. “But the absence of these people doesn’t lead to a vacuum, because Hamas has institutions and these institutions are ready to fill any vacuum.”

The next political chief for Hamas is likely to be a figure based outside the West Bank and Gaza because the position often requires travel. When Mr. Haniyeh was first elected to head the Hamas political office, he stayed in Gaza City, his hometown, but later relocated with some of his family members to Doha.

Hamas’s Shura Council will likely choose the next leader, according to Mr. Madhoun and Azzam Tamimi, an author of a book about Hamas.

Khaled Meshal, a former chief of the political office, is among the contenders to replace Mr. Haniyeh. Mr. Meshal has long been based in Doha and would often sit beside Mr. Haniyeh in meetings with visiting ministers and dignitaries.

“He can muster more unanimity in Hamas than anyone else,” said Mr. Tamimi who has been a friend of Mr. Meshal for decades.

Mousa Abu Marzouk and Khalil al-Hayya, both senior Hamas officials in Doha, also might be part of the discussion, said Mr. Tamimi.

As Hamas assesses its leadership ranks, the loss of Mr. Haniyeh will be felt in the short term.

In recent months, Mr. Haniyeh had been dedicating much of his time to communicating with Qatari and Egyptian mediators about achieving a cease-fire, transmitting Hamas’s positions following internal discussions.

Hamas, Mr. Abusada said, was likely to pull out of the cease-fire talks with Israel, at least for a few days or weeks, but it would ultimately have to return to stop the war and provide Palestinians in Gaza with a reprieve.

The group has few cards to play in responding to Mr. Haniyeh’s assassination on its own, as it has been at war with Israel for nearly 10 months.

“Its choices are limited,” he said, noting that Hamas’s military wing had been weakened in Gaza. The group, he said, could decide to respond by launching an attack in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

Mr. Abusada said, however, that if Iran throws its weight behind a response, especially given that the assassination was inside its borders, it could pose a much more significant challenge to Israel.

Aaron Boxerman contributed reporting.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the United States did not know about the strike on Haniyeh ahead of time. “This is something we were not aware of or involved in,” he said when asked about the killing in an interview with Channel News Asia in Singapore. Blinken added: “One of the things that we’ve been focused on is trying to make sure that the conflict that occurred in Gaza doesn’t escalate. We’re going to continue to do that as well.”

On the way to the airport in Singapore for a flight to Mongolia, Blinken called the prime minister of Qatar, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, to talk about the violent events in Tehran and Beirut. The prime minister has been one of the main mediators in cease-fire talks between Israel and Hamas.

Qatar and Egypt, two main mediators in cease-fire talks, warn of deeper chaos.

The two main mediators in Gaza cease-fire talks warned Wednesday that the assassination of a top Hamas leader in Iran could plunge the Middle East even deeper into chaos by sparking a new escalation in the violence.

The Gulf nation of Qatar, one of the mediators, said that the attack could upend peace negotiations. And Egypt’s foreign ministry condemned the strike as a “dangerous escalation” and warned against “fueling conflict in the region,” suggesting that Israel was uninterested in pursuing regional calm.

Still, the decision of whether to intensify the war into an all-out conflagration lies in the hands of a few decision makers in Iran, Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, according to analysts who said the most recent developments did not change those players’ fundamental desire to keep the conflict contained.

Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas political chief who was killed in Tehran, had been living in exile in Qatar for years along with other political leaders of the Gaza-based Palestinian militant group. Iran-backed Hamas blamed Israel for killing him, but Israel has so far declined to comment. He was visiting Iran for the inauguration of the country’s new president.

Just hours before, on Tuesday evening, Hezbollah, the powerful Lebanese militia that is also allied with Iran, may have lost a prominent figure of its own to an Israeli strike on a Beirut suburb. Israel said it had killed Fuad Shukr, a senior commander who Israel said was responsible for the attack on the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights on Saturday that killed 12 children and teenagers, though Hezbollah said only that he was at the site of the strike.

Qatar’s foreign ministry warned that the strike, on top of Israel’s ongoing military offensive in Gaza, “could lead the region to slip into chaos.”

The statement echoed the fears of people across the Middle East that the war would not only drag on, but also metastasize into an even bigger and bloodier one.

Israel has been battling Iran-backed groups on several fronts over the past 10 months, including Hamas in Gaza to the south and Hezbollah in Lebanon across the northern border. Earlier this month, Israeli fighter jets bombed a port in Yemen controlled by the Houthi militia in retaliation for a drone attack that hit Tel Aviv. Iran-linked militias in Iraq have also occasionally joined in attacks on Israel.

Time and again, analysts and U.S. officials say, the warring parties have had chances to strike in a way that would set off a larger war but always chose a more limited option that enabled them to claim they had retaliated effectively without drawing an outsized response.

“All sides over the last 10 months had reason to full-out escalate, and they didn’t, which suggests the calculus hasn’t changed and isn’t changing,” said Andreas Krieg, a Middle East security expert at King’s College London. “Deterrence on both sides somehow works.”

This round may be no different.

Though Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen or Iran-backed militias in Iraq might all launch attacks at Israeli or Israel-linked targets to avenge the most recent attacks, analysts said, the assassinations may not be reason enough for them to mount a full-blown response.

Despite his title as Hamas’s political leader, Mr. Haniyeh is replaceable as a leader, said Joost Hiltermann, the Middle East and North Africa program director for the International Crisis Group.

Iran might be embarrassed that the assassination took place on its soil, at the inauguration of its new president. But Haniyeh was not Iranian, making his death less of a slap to Iran than the killings of senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps officers at the Iranian Embassy in Damascus earlier this year, Mr. Hiltermann said.

“Hamas will survive. They have plenty of other leaders,” he said, adding that things were unlikely to escalate “as long as the Iranian overall interest isn’t harmed, and it really isn’t by Haniyeh’s loss.”

In fact, Mr. Hiltermann and Mr. Krieg said, the assassination could provide a way out of the war altogether by allowing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel to claim a signal victory, giving him space to back down in Gaza and perhaps agree to a cease-fire.

But that will only happen if Mr. Netanyahu wants to find a way out, which the analysts said was far from sure given his need to work with the hawkish political factions that shore up his governing coalition.

Hours after Haniyeh’s death, Israeli leaders have mostly yet to comment on the Hamas leader’s assassination in Tehran. Touring Israeli air defense batteries on Wednesday, Israel’s defense minister, Yoav Gallant, said: “We don’t want war, but we are preparing for every eventuality.”

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the United States was still intent on making a cease-fire deal happen. “All I can tell you right now is nothing takes away from the importance, as I said a moment ago, of getting to the cease-fire,” Blinken said at an event in Singapore, after he was asked about Haniyeh’s death. “I’m not going to speculate on what impact any one event might have.”

A mourning procession will be held for Haniyeh in Tehran on Thursday, after which his body will be flown to Qatar, Hamas said in a statement. The formal funeral will be held in Doha on Friday, the group said.

The Qassam Brigades, Hamas’s armed wing, said in a statement that the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s political leader, was “a dangerous event” that would have repercussions for the entire region.

Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, announced a day of mourning for Haniyeh in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, which is partially administered by the authority. In 2007, when Haniyeh was the authority’s prime minister, Hamas expelled Abbas’s Fatah party from Gaza in a coup, and the two Palestinian factions have been bitterly at odds ever since. In a statement carried by WAFA, the official Palestinian news agency, Abbas did not mention Hamas, identifying Haniyeh solely as a former prime minister.

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said Haniyeh’s assassination would prompt a “harsh punishment.” Khamenei added that Iran was duty-bound to avenge Haniyeh, whose killing he attributed to Israel, Iranian state news media reported.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel will convene the country’s security chiefs around noon local time, a spokesman for his office said, in the wake of Haniyeh’s killing and Israel’s targeting of a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut on Tuesday night. Israel took responsibility for the attack in Beirut, but has not talked about Haniyeh’s death.

Relatives of Israeli hostages held in Gaza expressed uncertainty and concern about the fate of the negotiations with Hamas for a cease-fire and their release. Amit Levy, the brother of Naama Levy, who was abducted from an army base during the Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7, said on national television that he hoped the killing of Haniyeh would help secure the release of the hostages, but that he was unsure. More than a hundred hostages remain in Gaza, at least a third of whom are believed to be dead.

President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran, a day after taking office, had strong words for Israel in his first comments about Haniyeh’s assassination, saying in a statement, “We will make the occupying terrorist regime regret its action,” Iran’s news media reported. He signaled that Iran would retaliate, saying that “Iran will defend its sovereignty, dignity, reputation and honor.”

Here are some of the assassinations that Iran has said Israel conducted.

Hamas and Iran on Wednesday accused Israel of assassinating Ismail Haniyeh, one of the Palestinian militant group’s most senior figures, in Tehran.

Israel had yet to comment on the killing of Mr. Haniyeh, the political leader of one of Iran’s biggest regional allies. Iran and Israel have fought a covert war for years, blaming each other for sabotage, abductions and targeted killings across the region.

Tehran has also accused Israel of past assassinations inside Iran. Here are some of those high-profile cases:

Iran’s top nuclear scientist

In November 2020, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a scientist described by U.S. and Israeli intelligence agencies as a leading figure in Iran’s nuclear weapons program, was shot and killed in an ambush. The killing was carried out with a remote-controlled machine gun, officials said.

Mr. Fakhrizadeh was one of Israeli intelligence’s top targets for years, and Iran angrily accused Israel of killing him. Israel has never publicly commented on the assassination. Mr. Fakhrizadeh was an academic, but U.S. intelligence assessments said that was a cover for his work on nuclear weapons.

He wasn’t the first scientist linked to the nuclear program to be attacked on Iranian soil. Two others were targeted with car bombs 20 minutes apart in different areas of Tehran, the capital, in 2010. One was killed, the other injured.

A Revolutionary Guards commander

In May 2022, two assassins on motorcycles shot and killed Col. Sayad Khodayee, an officer in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Iran blamed Israel and vowed revenge.

As in other such cases, Israel made no public comment on the killing, but it told the United States it had targeted the officer. Israeli officials said Colonel Khodayee was the deputy commander of a unit that planned and carried out covert operations around the world, including assassinations and abductions.

Israeli officials said that group, called Unit 840, was a part of the Quds Force, the arm of the Revolutionary Guards that specializes in covert operations and espionage. A U.S. drone strike killed Qassim Suleimani, the Quds Force leader, in Iraq in 2020.

Mysterious poisonings

In May 2022, two Iranian scientists suddenly fell ill and died within days of each other, in cities hundreds of miles apart.

Ayoub Entezari, an aeronautical engineer at a military research facility, and the geologist Kamran Aghamolaei both developed symptoms of food poisoning, and their conditions deteriorated rapidly. Iran believed Israel had poisoned their food, according to an Iranian official.

Israel had no comment. But if it were behind the men’s deaths, it would have suggested an expansion of the campaign of assassinations, going beyond high-ranking officials in the nuclear program and senior military officers.

Though Israel has yet to comment officially on the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, former Israeli military officials were on national television Wednesday morning praising what appeared to be two operations targeting Hezbollah and Hamas, even as they raised questions about Israel’s longer-term strategy. In a live panel discussion on Israel’s Channel 12, Amos Gilad, a general in the reserves, called the killings in the heart of enemy territory “an amazing achievement.”

Qatar, which has sought to broker a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, condemned Haniyeh’s killing as “an ugly crime and a dangerous escalation.” In a statement, the Qatari Foreign Ministry said that the assassination, along with Israel’s “continued targeting of civilians in Gaza” was “leading the region to slide into chaos.” Qatar has hosted senior Hamas leaders, including Haniyeh, for years, and allowed the group to maintain a political office there.

The death toll from the Israeli strike near Beirut on Tuesday has risen to four, two women and two children, according to the Lebanese Red Cross. The strike was in retaliation for a rocket attack in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights that Israel blamed on Hezbollah.

Asked about Israel’s involvement in the Hamas leader’s assassination and whether the U.S. had advance notice of it, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin responded: “I don’t have anything for you on that.”

The secretary, aboard a Navy ship in the Philippines, said the U.S. would come to Israel’s defense if it is attacked. “We don’t want to see any of that happen,” he said, according to a video of his remarks to reporters. “We’re going to work hard to make sure that we’re doing things to help take the temperature down, and address issues through diplomatic means.”

Ismail Haniyeh, a Top Hamas Leader, Is Dead at 62

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As War Gets Bleaker, More Ukrainians Appear Open to a Peace Deal

Olha Predchenko held hands with her 85-year-old mother as they looked at the makeshift memorial on the grass in central Kyiv, each blue and yellow flag marked with the name of a soldier who had died fighting in the war with Russia.

They come here often to Maidan Square, to spend time thinking about the dead and the war. Ms. Predchenko said she dreamed of something heavy falling on the Kremlin. But she also hoped for a peace deal soon.

“Better a bad peace than a good war,” added Ms. Predchenko, 61.

Increasingly frustrated, more Ukrainians appear to be opening up to the idea of a negotiated peace, even as they remain vague about what that means.

Most Ukrainians still oppose ceding any territory to Russia, not even the Crimean peninsula that was seized by Russia 10 years ago, polls show. But those polls and recent remarks by the country’s leaders also highlight a palpable shift in the conversation around peace talks — from a no-deal-not-ever to a maybe-compromise-at-some-point.

In mid-July, a survey by the Ukrainian independent media outlet ZN.UA found that about 44 percent of Ukrainian civilians favored starting official talks with Russia. On July 23, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology released a poll showing that nearly a third of Ukrainians would agree to cede some territory to Russia to end the war. That’s more than three times as many as the year before.

Nadia Ivashchenko, 28, a railway signal operator from the central Kirovohrad region, said she couldn’t describe a good peace settlement. But her husband has been fighting in the army since Russia invaded in February 2022, and the couple has a 5-year-old son who hasn’t seen his father in years.

“So many people died, and what for?” Ms. Ivashchenko said. “But I want everything to be finished, at least somehow, because I have a son, and I don’t want him to grow up in such a wartime as now.”

In Ukraine, the third year of the war is grueling: The Russians are inching forward every day, and Ukraine has been unable to mount a successful counteroffensive since 2022. The country has been beset by frequent power outages and a growing death toll.

Ongoing support from the West seems unpredictable, especially if Donald J. Trump regains the White House in November. Germany will cut military aid for Ukraine in half if its proposed budget for 2025 is adopted; that is seen as a bellwether for Western commitment, especially after the six-month delay in the United States for a military-aid package delivered this spring.

International pressure is building on Ukraine and Russia to come to some kind of agreement, although experts agree neither side is ready. The barriers to any settlement are huge: Russia occupies about 18 percent of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, according to DeepState, an analytical group with close ties to Ukraine’s army.

In June, President Vladimir Putin said he would order a cease-fire and enter negotiations with Ukraine only if Kyiv withdrew from the regions that Moscow has claimed — but does not yet completely control — and dropped aspirations to join NATO. Ukraine dismissed the proposal as a demand for capitulation; President Volodymyr Zelensky has said he wants Ukraine to return to its 1991 borders and gain a NATO berth.

Russia was not invited to Switzerland in June for the first international peace summit, a 92-country gathering meant to promote Ukraine’s vision for how the war should end. Since then, Ukraine has publicly signaled that Russia should come to the next one, and Mr. Zelensky, in an interview with the BBC, expressed hope for a diplomatic solution.

Ukraine’s foreign minister was in Beijing this month expressing a willingness to have China play a more central role in peace negotiations, and on Wednesday Ukraine invited China’s top diplomat to visit Kyiv.

Russia has so far been noncommittal about participating in a second peace summit. But the Kremlin has also signaled in recent weeks that it could enter negotiations even if Kyiv doesn’t fulfill Mr. Putin’s June demands. Regardless, many Western officials and analysts question whether Mr. Putin is ready to negotiate anything other than a peace deal on his terms.

A key adviser to Mr. Zelensky last week said making a deal now with Mr. Putin was akin to signing “a deal with the devil.” And while the Kyiv Institute poll showed a threefold increase in people willing to give up land for peace, it also found that 55 percent of Ukrainians oppose any territorial concessions whatsoever.

Kateryna Predchenko, Olha’s 85-year-old mother, chastised her daughter for suggesting a deal and thought Ukrainian soldiers should keep fighting.

“It’s not just Ukraine, they protect the whole world,” she said. “Why doesn’t the world want to understand this? We need everyone to rise up against this Russian idiot.”

In the south, one of the regions most affected by the war, the change in attitude over the past year was striking, the Kyiv Institute’s poll showed. More than half of the respondents said they either supported ceding some territory or weren’t quite sure. Only 46 percent said they opposed any concessions. A year ago, 86 percent in this region — encompassing Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Kherson and Odesa — said they opposed giving any territory to Russia.

Mykola, 33, a resident of Odesa, who didn’t want his last name used because he was avoiding the military draft, said he could see ceding the Crimean peninsula, already in Russia’s control, or the area near the city of Luhansk in eastern Donbas as part of a deal. But he added: “As a person who’s sitting home and not fighting on the battlefield, I don’t feel I have any moral right to say how this agreement should look.”

Freezing the lines of battle would leave those in occupied areas, which include the relatives of many Ukrainians, in Russian control indefinitely. And the areas Ukraine has liberated are grim, destroyed by Russian strikes and rife with allegations of human rights abuses.

The sociology institute’s survey did not identify how large concessions should be, whether territory should be officially conceded or whether it should be controlled temporarily by Russia in a less formal way.

“It’s just in general, what’s your emotions?” said Anton Grushetskyi, the institute’s executive director. “And surely, more and more people are ready. And the key reason is the failed expectations from the last year, because lots of people had more hopes.”

He added that many Ukrainians had seen those hopes dashed, particularly because of the delay in U.S. military aid.

For some Ukrainians, their desired deal sounds more like a pipe dream.

“I’d like Russia to go home, stop interfering in our country and deal with their internal problems,” said Oleksandr Melnyk, 26, a car mechanic in the southeastern city of Kryvyi Rih. He said he has submitted his papers to serve in the army. “I’d like them to stop their aggression, pay for the damage, and return all our prisoners and children.”

Many in Ukraine said they were nervous about what the re-election of Mr. Trump might mean. The former president has said he plans to bring a swift end to the war, although he hasn’t specified how. Ukrainians worry that he would cut America’s support or push to allow Russia to keep the territory it now occupies.

Mr. Trump’s inner circle is filled with Ukraine war skeptics, including JD Vance, his pick for vice president, who once said: “I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another.”

But other Ukrainians said that Mr. Trump would at least give Ukraine an answer.

“If Trump comes to power, everything will be clear,” said Natalia Fomenko, 47, who lives in Irpin, one of the Kyiv suburbs ravaged early in the war by the Russians. “Either he will provide Ukraine with weapons, or we will have to agree to negotiate.”

Some Ukrainians on the front lines also said they were skeptical that Russia would actually honor the terms of a peace deal.

“I’d rather believe in the chastity of a prostitute,” said Oleksandr Tsebrii, a soldier of the 58th motorized brigade, in a Facebook video posted on July 15, shortly after Mr. Zelensky publicly suggested Russia could come to the next peace summit. He added: “The only formula for our security and the existence of Ukraine is our resistance.”

Last week, he was killed in heavy fighting in the eastern region of Donetsk.

Anton Troianovski, Andrew Kramer and Dzvinka Pinchuk contributed reporting.

Drones Target Sudan Army Base During Top General’s Visit

Sudan’s army said two drone strikes hit an army base in the country’s east on Wednesday after a graduation ceremony attended by the country’s de facto leader, Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who has been locked in a civil war for over a year with a rival military general.

At least five people were killed and several others injured in the attack in the town of Gebeit, the army said, which has been held by the army and is about 50 miles from its wartime capital of Port Sudan. The Sudanese army spokesman, Nabil Abdallah, told the BBC that General al-Burhan had survived an assassination attempt, and blamed it on the Rapid Support Forces, the paramilitary group that has been battling the army for power for 15 months.

A military spokesman could not be reached for comment. In statements posted on social media, the military did not say whether General al-Burhan had been hurt or where he was during the attack. But it posted videos showing him interacting with the soldiers and members of the public before and after the graduation ceremony.

No group has claimed responsibility for the strikes. The paramilitary group’s media office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The war between General al-Burhan and his rival, Lt. Gen. Mohamed Hamdan, who leads the Rapid Support Forces, has devastated Sudan, one of Africa’s largest nations. More than 18,000 people have been killed, according to an estimate from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, though aid workers estimate the death toll to be higher.

At least 10 million people have been driven from their homes, according to the United Nations, while more than half the country’s 48 million people face hunger, and hundreds of thousands of others are facing a looming famine.

The army and the paramilitary group have both used drones in the war, which are sometimes supplied by close foreign allies such as Iran or the United Arab Emirates, according to Western and Sudanese officials.

The paramilitary group, which has dominated the capital, Khartoum, and the western region of Darfur, has in recent weeks been ramping up its attacks on areas controlled by the army in the east. The paramilitary group has also recently clashed with the army in El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, and in the southeastern state of Sennar.

The two military leaders were once allies who brutally cracked down on Sudan’s pro-democracy forces after a popular revolt forced out the country’s longtime dictator, Omar Hassan al-Bashir. But they fell out over who should hold supreme power in the country and how swiftly their forces should merge into a single army.

The reported drone attacks on the base come just two weeks before mediation talks to end the war, hosted by the United States, were set to begin in Switzerland. The U.S. secretary of state, Antony J. Blinken, said in a statement this month that Saudi Arabia will co-host the talks, which will include the African Union, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and the United Nations as observers.

The paramilitary force’s leader, General Hamdan, said his group will participate in the talks. On Tuesday, Sudan’s foreign ministry, which is allied with the army, signaled it was ready to join the talks in Geneva on Aug. 14. but said the paramilitary should stop its attacks and open humanitarian corridors.

The army, however, has also been accused of thwarting the flow of food aid, especially to the Darfur region in the west, by preventing United Nations trucks from passing through a crucial border checkpoint. The army says it is necessary to stop the flow of weapons.

The war in Sudan has become one of the world’s most urgent, and ignored, humanitarian emergencies. The country’s health care system has been all but decimated, disrupting treatment for millions. Disease outbreaks have risen, with aid groups saying hundreds have died from malaria, dengue, measles and other illnesses.

Schools and universities have been shuttered in a nation that once drew many foreign students. Looting has been widespread, with banks, private homes and government institutions burned and robbed.

Venezuela’s Election Was Deeply Flawed. Here’s How.

It had already been clear for months that Venezuela’s presidential election on Sunday, would not be free or fair, as the government jailed opposition leaders or disqualified them from running for office.

But as the day progressed it became all the more evident just how flawed the country’s democratic process had become and why the victory claim by the country’s autocratic leader, President Nicolás Maduro, has provoked such fury.

Across the country citizens, local reporters and journalists for The New York Times observed instances of voter intimidation.

In the early morning about 15 men in unmarked black jackets temporarily blocked access to one voting center in the capital, Caracas, a Times journalist observed. One volunteer vote monitor was punched.

The crowd eventually started demanding the right to vote and the long line started moving inside, more than an hour and a half after voting was officially supposed to start.

In the eastern city of Maturín, woman was hit by a bullet when men on motorcycles drove by a line of people waiting to vote, according to a former lawmaker, María Gabriela Hernández, who was at the scene.

And in another polling place in the northern city of Cumaná, roughly 50 armed police officers and national guardsmen formed a long line outside, wearing helmets and body armor, in what appeared to be a show of power to anyone considering voting against the government.

In the nearby city of Carúpano, citizens and local journalists said that government security forces had tried to remove a vote monitor allied with the opposition and replace the person with a different monitor who had not been authorized by the country’s electoral authority.

About 17,000 Venezuelans saw their voting stations changed at the last minute according to Carlos Medina, who helps direct the Venezuelan Electoral Observatory, an independent group.

That was the case for many voters in Maracaibo, Venezuela’s second largest city.

Sonia Gómez, 65, said she had checked the election council website on Saturday to verify her polling station. But when she arrived on Sunday, election workers told her she was registered somewhere else.

“They moved us older people because they know we don’t have that much energy,” she said, “but I’m going to look for someone to take me to vote.”

Five people in Cumaná said a new, unofficial voting station had been installed in a community center. A journalist working for The New York Times who tried to enter the site was stopped by government supporters.

Some stations stayed open beyond the scheduled end of the vote, giving members of Mr. Maduro’s party a chance to round up voters who had yet to cast their ballots.

“The opposition vote is more spontaneous, it arrives by its own means,” Mr. Medina said. “On the other hand, the pro-government vote has behind it a machinery that mobilizes the vote.”

“So they left the centers open longer,’’ he added, “which allows the machinery to have more time to continue doing the work of searching and mobilizing the vote in favor of the ruling party.”

There are two vote counts in Venezuela, a digital tally received by the country’s election authority — which is led by an ally of Mr. Maduro — and a paper count printed by each voting machine at polling places.

The opposition invested heavily in an effort to have supporters present at each voting station to obtain a physical printout of the voting tally from every voting machine after the polls closed.

That access is required by Venezuelan election law, and the paper counts are typically the way that everyday citizens can verify that the digital count is correct.

But officials at some polling places refused to release the printouts to election monitors.

This was the case at one of the largest voting stations in Caracas, the Rafael Napoleon Baute school in Petare, where about 15,000 people were registered to vote.

In Maracaibo, local leaders said they had not been able to get the paper counts for all the voting centers in the region. At one school, Colegio Gonzaga, citizens protested outside, calling on the electoral officials to turn over the voting receipts.

Without all the paper counts, the country was left without a way to verify the result announced by the ruling party.

Shortly after midnight early Monday morning the country’s electoral authority announced that Mr. Maduro had received 51.2 percent of the vote, while the main opposition candidate, Edmundo González, had received 44.2 percent, with 80 percent of voting stations counted.

But the government did not release a full vote count, and its figures did not appear to match statistical estimates based on partial counts gathered by opposition poll watchers and other data that showed the president losing by a wide margin. As of Wednesday, the government had still not provided a full vote count.

The results were immediately called into question by the opposition and by the United States and other countries around the world, including several leftist Latin American governments.

“One of the main guarantees of our automated voting system is accountability, and accountability requires that the election results be published table by table to be able to verify the result,” said Mr. Medina. “Otherwise it is an act of faith, to believe in one number or another.”

If the country’s electoral authority does not reveal the results for every voting machine,’’ he added, “it would be implicitly saying that it cannot support the numbers.”

The Thai Women Punching Their Way Out of Poverty

She was boxing for money. Even at 13 years old, she knew that.

Why else, said Janjaem Suwannapheng, would she commit to a sport in which a boy smashed her nose in, back when she was shorter than the stalks of rice in the fields near home?

“Anyone who becomes a boxer does it because they come from a poor background,” she said. “It hurts, it’s tiring, it’s exhausting.”

Of course, Janjaem is really good at boxing. She was the first girl to train at her local gym in Thailand’s rural northeast. She loves the sport now, she said. At last year’s world championships, she won a silver medal in her welterweight division (66 kg, about 145 pounds). At the Paris Olympics, she is into the round of 16 with a bye.

Even if she goes no further, Janjaem said, boxing has already saved her. Now 24, she has bought land and gold for her parents and a pickup truck for herself. She scored an athletic scholarship to a university. Her older brother, by contrast, left school at 15 to work with their father, a truck driver.

Boxing is a national passion in Thailand, where the confluence of hardscrabble living and a fondness for illegal gambling — on anything from cockfighting and buffalo racing to a fin-snapping standoff between Siamese fighting fish — has made the sport tremendously lucrative. The local variety, muay Thai, or Thai boxing, relies on lightning strikes with legs, knees, elbows and fists first honed by ancient warriors dedicated to the “way of the eight limbs.”

Muay Thai boxers wear no protective gear on their heads. In 2018, a 13-year-old fighter died of a brain hemorrhage after he was knocked out in a bout. Legislators talked about tightening regulations for minors. Not much happened. The sport continues to gird the illegal gambling economy.

In a country with the highest income inequality in East Asia and the Pacific, according to the World Bank, boxing allows young people to vault fast from subsistence farming to the climate-controlled privilege of Bangkok. By winning bouts, Thai prisoners can earn early release, as one flyweight boxer who competed in the 2008 Beijing Olympics did after his sentence for robbery was commuted.

Thailand’s impoverished northeast, known as Isaan, cultivates the majority of the country’s boxers. The region’s labor force is scattered around the country and the world because there aren’t enough jobs back home. Last October, about two dozen Isaan workers were kidnapped from Israeli farms near Gaza; more than 40 Thai farmhands have been killed by Hamas.

“From working in the fields, from working in the sun, we get the fighting spirit,” said Thananya Somnuek, who started boxing as a young teenager in Isaan.

Thananya won a national championship at 16 and later a gold medal at the Youth Olympic Games. Her nickname in Thai is Butter, because her mother had a premonition that her daughter would one day go to a foreign country where people ate such foreign ingredients. One of Thananya’s boxing squad teammates, another Isaan native, is nicknamed Cream. Both Butter and Cream made it to Paris.

Officially, children in Thailand can enter the muay Thai ring at age 10. If they are healthy, they can box for money every 21 days. But in Isaan, locals say, standards are more lax. As long as farmhands aren’t needed for the harvest, children can fight every 10 days.

“The strict rules are made by air-conditioned men sitting in air-conditioned rooms,” said Suthep Saengngoen, as he sat in his family’s sweltering muay Thai gym, rubbing his grandson’s body with a cooling mentholated liniment. His six sons all fought, too.

The family is from Isaan, but the gym is in the outskirts of Bangkok, amid industrial warehouses and scraggly fruit farms. Boxing purses in the Thai capital are at least triple those back home.

Suthep’s grandson, Chaichana Saengngoen, was named a muay Thai rookie of the year in 2023. He’s now 16 and, in addition to his earnings in the ring, receives $1,300 in endorsements every month.

“I started boxing because my grandfather forced me to,” Chaichana said. He was 7 when he began.

“I do like it now,” he added.

The children at the gym train from five to seven in the morning, before going to school. Then they return for afternoon practice until the mosquitoes start swarming at dusk. That’s not counting 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) of running twice a day to build stamina. By the end of the day, their young arms shiver from smacking the bag — and each other — hundreds of times. Hundreds of roundhouse kicks leave their legs quaking, too. Still, they return for more.

Nutthapol Anuphap, 10, has been boxing since he was 3, he said. At 5 years old, he appeared on a local TV talent show. One of his muay Thai videos has nearly 2 million views. His nickname is Fist.

“I’m going to be rich,” he said.

At the Chaiya District Prison in southern Thailand, in a concrete yard flanked by razor wire, a group of inmates heaved, kicked and punched in the 97-degree heat. One lifted a cement-filled bucket with his teeth, strengthening his jaw and neck with each 22-pound (10 kilogram) rep.

Out of the more than 900 inmates at Chaiya, 15 men and five women have qualified for a prison muay Thai program, one of 10 in the country. They train for eight hours a day and receive extra rations of eggs, meat and milk.

“Muay Thai training gives the prisoners resilience,” said Sathika Samsri, the superintendent of Chaiya. “We want to build them into professional boxers or trainers who will not return to prison.”

The fighters can keep their prize money, and prison officials allow them occasional perks such as KFC spicy chicken wings, a local favorite. Successful bouts at local stadiums, which they attend with prison officials in tow, count as good behavior in parole hearings.

Jomyud Sowangchompu, 21, was sentenced to four years in prison for drug dealing and possession. He left school in sixth grade and could only find a job making less than $15 a week during the fruit harvesting season, he said. In a town match in June, he lost in the first round. Still, he earned $55 for fighting, enough to pay for months of prison necessities: soap, toothpaste, laundry detergent, haircuts.

“I don’t have to ask my parents for money,” he said. “It makes me feel like a better man.”

None of the prison boxers said they have any interest in watching the Paris Olympics, even if the wardens were to allow them screen time At the Bangkok muay Thai gym, the children and coaches seemed mystified by the Olympic boxing rule limiting participation to amateurs.

“What’s the point of boxing if you can’t make lots of money?” said Suthep, the gym family patriarch.

Besides, he said, without the kicks, knees and elbows of muay Thai, Olympic boxing seemed like only half a sport.

Demonstrations of muay Thai are taking place on the sidelines of the Paris Games. But the sport, while gaining in popularity overseas, has nowhere near the profile of international boxing. And for all the money to be made — and gambled — in muay Thai, the professional boxing circuit is far more developed. Many Olympic boxers retire and go pro.

Wijan Ponlid began training in muay Thai at age 9, then won flyweight gold at the 2000 Olympics in Sydney. A parade of elephants greeted him upon his return, and he was handed a cushy job as a police officer. Today he’s the coach of the Thai women’s Olympic team. Among his duties: figuring out how to nourish the squad in Paris with their beloved shrimp and chili paste, an Isaan specialty.

“I switched to international boxing because with muay Thai, I got to a point where I was the world champion, but I wanted to be part of a national team with the flag on my chest,” Wijan said.

For Thai women, international boxing offers even more opportunities.

Jutamas Jitpong, the daughter of rubber tappers, started in muay Thai at 9 years old. Within three years, she was a champion, but there were few girls of her caliber with whom to compete. Some muay Thai stadiums, governed by rules loosely affiliated with Buddhism, don’t allow women to enter the ring, much less fight. In three years, she fought three times.

So Jutamas, now 26, switched to boxing. Although women’s boxing became an Olympic sport in 2012, Thailand didn’t send any athletes in the event until four years later.

Jutamas won a flyweight silver at the 2022 world championships and a bronze a year later. She made it to the round of 16 in Paris.

“Maybe people thought, you’re a woman, you really want to box?” Jutamas said. “I want to box. I want to win.”

Israel Says It Killed Hezbollah Commander in Airstrike Near Beirut

Israel launched a deadly strike in a densely populated Beirut suburb on Tuesday in retaliation for a rocket attack in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights that it blamed Hezbollah for and that killed 12 children and teenagers on a soccer field.

The target of the Israeli strike in a southern suburb of Lebanon’s capital was Fuad Shukr, a senior official who serves as a close adviser to Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, according to three Israeli security officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive details.

The Israel Defense Forces later said in a statement that its fighter jets had “eliminated” Mr. Shukr, but there was no confirmation from Hezbollah, the powerful Iran-backed group, and the claim could not be independently verified.

Hezbollah has denied carrying out the attack in the Golan Heights on Saturday. The latest strikes were likely to fuel concerns that Israel’s long-running conflict with the group could escalate into a full-blown war even as Israel wages a military offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip after that group led a deadly assault in Israel on Oct. 7.

The attack on Tuesday is believed to be the first time since the war with Hamas began that Israel has targeted Hezbollah in Beirut. In January, an Israeli airstrike in a Beirut suburb killed Saleh al-Arouri, a senior leader of Hamas, which is also backed by Iran.

The strike on Tuesday killed at least three other people — a woman and two children — and wounded at least 74 others, five critically, according to Lebanon’s Ministry of Health. Officials were still searching the rubble for other victims, the ministry said.

Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati, condemned the strike, which he said had hit close to one of the country’s largest hospitals. A spokesman for António Guterres, the United Nations secretary general, expressed “grave concern” about the attack.

The strike hit close to Hezbollah’s Shura Council, a central decision-making authority, Lebanon’s state-run news agency reported. Videos and photographs on social media showed smoke rising above buildings as darkness fell over Beirut, home to about 2.4 million people.

Crowds filled the streets after the strike in the neighborhood of Haret Hreik, which is the headquarters of Hezbollah and which was largely destroyed by Israeli airstrikes in 2006 during the last war between the two sides.

Mohamed Awada, 52, a taxi driver who lives in Beirut’s southern suburbs, said he had been opening the door to his house when he “heard something like thunder and then a big explosion.”

“Everybody in the street was yelling and screaming,” he added. “It feels like we are already in a war.”

Hezbollah began firing into northern Israel in what it called a show of solidarity with Hamas after the assault on southern Israel in October. Since then, Israel and Hezbollah have traded thousands of strikes across the Israeli-Lebanese border, wrecking towns, killing hundreds and forcing more than 150,000 people in both countries to flee their homes.

The rocket attack on Saturday hit the Arab Druse village of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights. The Israeli military said that Hezbollah was the only militant group in the region with the type of rocket used in the strike, the Iranian Falaq-1. U.S. officials said it was a Hezbollah rocket fired from territory the group controls.

On Monday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel promised a “severe” response to the rocket attack. But international diplomats have been pressuring Israel to be measured in its response, said one official familiar with the discussions. The United States was among the countries urging restraint, said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomacy.

Members of Israel’s security establishment also told the cabinet this week that it was not a good time to engage in a major war with Hezbollah, according to two Israeli officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

Biden administration officials have repeatedly said this week that they were working toward a diplomatic solution to the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. After the Israeli military reported it had struck Beirut on Tuesday, the White House press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, told reporters in Washington: “We do not believe that an all-out war is inevitable. We believe that it can still be avoided.”

Ms. Jean-Pierre added that the White House was still confident that a diplomatic solution to the conflict could be negotiated. “We have to continue to be optimistic here,” she said.

Abdallah Bou Habib, Lebanon’s foreign minister, said the United States had asked Lebanon’s government to relay a message to Hezbollah not to retaliate because of fears of a wider escalation. “We prefer no retaliation at all,” he told The New York Times. “But if there is a retaliation, we want it to be less than proportional.”

He added that he was trying to persuade Hezbollah to be restrained in any response.

Mr. Shukr was Hezbollah’s “most senior military commander,” and was responsible for the group’s precision-guided missiles, cruise missiles, anti-ship missiles, long-range rockets and drones, the Israeli military said.

After a senior Hezbollah commander, Mustafa Badreddine, was killed in Syria in 2016, Mr. Shukr assumed some of his responsibilities, said Hanin Ghaddar, an expert on Lebanese affairs and a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Ms. Ghaddar said Mr. Shukr had been a powerful military figure within Hezbollah and was responsible for operations in southern Lebanon.

“He’s a very big target,” she said. “He would be the biggest loss for Hezbollah since Oct. 7.”

Mr. Shukr played a major role in the 1983 bombing of a U.S. Marine compound in Beirut that killed 241 American servicemen and wounded 128 others, according to the website of the State Department’s Rewards for Justice program.

The program was offering up to $5 million for information on Mr. Shukr, and the State Department labeled him a “specially designated global terrorist” in 2019, the website read.

Before the strike on Tuesday, Giora Eiland, a retired major general in the Israeli military and former Israeli national security adviser, had predicted that Israel would carry out a limited strike in response to the attack on Majdal Shams.

“Israel cannot begin a total war in Lebanon today without real international support,” he said.

But General Eiland said he was concerned about a scenario in which Iran participated in the retaliation to an Israeli strike against Hezbollah.

“We’re facing terrible dangerous scenarios,” he said. “We have no choice but to be more careful.”

Hours before Israel struck near Beirut, Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, was sworn in at a ceremony at the Iranian Parliament in the capital, Tehran. Mr. Pezeshkian beat a hard-line conservative in a July runoff election.

In the front row sat the leaders of regional militias backed by Iran and known as the “axis of resistance”: Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Houthis.

During the ceremony, some in the audience broke out into chants of “death to America” and “death to Israel,” when Parliament’s speaker, Gen. Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, mentioned the war in Gaza and U.S. support of Israel.

“We want a world where Palestinians are free from the clutches of injustice and occupation,” Mr. Pezeshkian said. “And the dreams of no Palestinian child is buried under the rubbles of their home. We can help realize this dream.”

The Iranian Embassy in Beirut “strongly condemned” the attack on Tuesday, calling it “cowardly and criminal,” according to Iranian news media.

Lebanese television channels showed footage of a building collapsed in on itself. Fire trucks and ambulances rushed through Beirut’s streets to the site.

The Lebanese Red Cross said in a statement that a residential building had been struck. The building had more than six floors and was badly damaged. Later Tuesday, the area around it was cordoned off.

The latest exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah come as Palestinians in Gaza have been told by the Israeli military to move to an area that the military has designated as a “humanitarian zone,” and that area keeps shrinking.

In the latest downsizing, the military this weekend ordered the evacuation of two more parts of central Gaza that had been part of the zone. Similar orders have forced more than 200,000 Palestinians to relocate over the past week alone, according to the United Nations.

The Israeli military has said its recent evacuations and operations have targeted a renewed Hamas insurgency, and it has accused the group of launching rockets from the areas that fell under the latest evacuation order.

But the repeated redrawing of the zone’s borders was one more burden among many for Gaza’s 2.2 million people.

Philippe Lazzarini, the head of the U.N. agency that aids Palestinians, said on Sunday that evacuation orders had affected “almost everyone in Gaza.”

The orders bring “more misery, fear and suffering for people who have nothing to do with this war,” Mr. Lazzarini said on social media.

Reporting was contributed by Michael Levenson, Ephrat Livni, Aaron Boxerman, Hiba Yazbek, Lauren Leatherby, Abu Bakr Bashir and Ameera Harouda.

Why the Top Gymnast in France Is Competing for Algeria

Laura Cappelle

James Hill

Reporting from Avoine, France

Now that she has mastered it, the uneven bars routine that the gymnast Kaylia Nemour has prepared for the Paris Olympics is a sight to behold: a fluid yet treacherous 30 seconds, so tightly woven with difficulty that it has made her a medal favorite in the event.

When Nemour performed it in competition last month, it produced the highest score recorded on the bars since the Tokyo Olympics. But while she may wow fans in her home country at these Games, she won’t be doing it under the French flag.

Instead, Nemour, 17, is competing for Algeria, the result of a nationality switch last year that followed a protracted dispute with the French gymnastics federation — one that has seen the host nation lose out on perhaps its best chance for a medal on one of the most high-profile stages of the Games.

The conflict that drove a wedge between Nemour and the French federation began with a power struggle over training sites ahead of the Games but has since devolved into accusations of overtraining, caustic exchanges and an 18-month administrative inquiry that concluded last December that the federation was “hounding” Nemour’s home gym in Avoine, a village in western France.

“Kaylia’s dream was to represent her country, France, at the Olympics, like any high-level athlete,” said her mother, Stéphanie Nemour, who is also the president of the gym. “We have distressed gymnasts here who don’t understand why the federation that is supposed to nurture them is acting this way.”

Through a spokeswoman, the federation declined to comment on its dispute with Nemour and her coaches or on her split with the federation.

Nemour’s road to the French national team once looked exceptionally smooth. While many aspiring gymnasts have to move or commute long distances to train for elite careers, the Nemours happened to settle less than a mile from Avoine Beaumont Gymnastique, a gym where Marc and Gina Chirilcenco have coached a steady stream of top gymnasts over the past 30 years.

Her potential was obvious from a young age, according to Marc Chirilcenco. “She has exceptional air awareness, and for a long time, she simply had fun with it,” he said. In 2020 and 2021, while still a junior, Nemour beat her senior peers at several French events. In 2021, she became the national champion in the uneven bars.

Around the same time, the French gymnastics federation announced new training guidelines. Instead of choosing their training location, all Olympic hopefuls would be required to train full-time under the umbrella of the National Institute of Sport, Expertise and Performance either in Vincennes, a suburb of Paris, or in St.-Étienne, in southeastern France.

For the Olympic hopefuls training in Avoine, a small group that included Nemour, the edict was a significant blow. Nemour said that leaving her hometown “wasn’t even an option.”

“I’ve been here pretty much since I was born,” she said. “My home is within walking distance from the gym. I’m really happy with my coaches. Why would I leave?”

A parallel issue added fuel to the fire. In 2021, Nemour was found to have advanced osteochondritis, an inflammation that is often linked to repetitive stress placed on a joint. Nemour’s surgeon opted to perform bone grafts on her knees “to give her the best chance” to return to a high level, Stéphanie Nemour said.

While osteochondritis can be common in gymnasts, and even congenital, the severity of Nemour’s condition led the French gymnastics federation to wonder if it had been caused by overtraining, a charge that had arisen before with athletes working with the Chirilcencos.

Céline Nony, a gymnastics reporter for the French newspaper L’Équipe, said that the couple were known to “push for high difficulty at too young an age.” Chirilcenco disputed the accusation: “We train roughly the same number of hours as other French training centers, and we have no more injuries,” he said.

The two issues — Nemour’s training location and health — soon became conflated. When Nemour got the all-clear from her personal doctors to resume training in March 2022, the federation’s doctor refused to agree.

Chirilcenco soon lost his position as a national coach. The gym was stripped of its status as a state training center — losing funding in the process — and the federation asked the regional authorities to investigate the Chirilcencos and what it charged was their “excessive influence over minor athletes and endangerment of them.” After 47 interviews with gymnasts, parents and staff, the inquiry ultimately cleared the coaches.

The idea of competing for Algeria materialized as a way out of the standoff. Nemour’s father had an Algerian passport because his parents had been born in the country, and Nemour was entitled to one as well. “I wanted a solution, to avoid spending another year without being allowed to compete,” she said.

Algerian gymnastics officials welcomed her. An athlete of Nemour’s caliber had the potential to raise the profile of the sport not just in the country but across Africa, which had never earned a world or Olympic medal in women’s gymnastics.

France didn’t let Nemour go so easily, however. Under international rules, gymnasts must obtain a letter of release from their former federation to compete under a new flag, or face a one-year delay. Only the intervention of the French sports minister last year released her in time to qualify for the 2023 world championships.

There, in October, Nemour won the silver medal on the uneven bars at age 16. She didn’t realize what the result meant for African gymnastics, she said, until she started receiving a deluge of messages and interview requests. “It came as a shock,” she said. “There was so much support from Algeria that I’m really happy to represent the country.”

An Olympic medal would be an ever bigger breakthrough. While the uneven bars offer her most promising chance — she qualified for the apparatus final with the highest score on Sunday — Nemour has also recently emerged as an all-around threat: She is the fourth-ranked gymnast entering the final on Thursday.

For France, which has a respected history in gymnastics but rarely features among medal favorites at the Olympics, the loss of an athlete of her ability is incalculable. “With Kaylia, the French team was at least twice as likely to win a team medal at a home Games, aside from her individual potential,” said Nony, the sports journalist. (In Sunday’s qualification round, France failed to qualify for any women’s final.)

With the ordeal behind her, Nemour said that she felt “no heartache” over competing for another country in Paris.

“The Olympics were a goal I had for myself,” she said. “Whether it’s for France or Algeria, it will still be me, Kaylia, on the floor.”

U.K. Police Officers Injured in Far-Right Riot After Deadly Stabbing

Almost 40 police officers were injured in the northwestern English town of Southport on Tuesday evening after a day of mourning for children killed in a stabbing attack was disrupted by far-right protesters.

A large group that the police say included supporters of the English Defence League, a far-right extremist organization, began attacking a mosque in Southport on Tuesday evening, according to a statement from the Merseyside Police Service, which covers the region.

Officials said that the targeting of the mosque and the ensuing riot appeared to be linked to online disinformation about the stabbing on Monday, when an attacker killed three children and injured eight other children and two adults at a dance class in Southport.

The police on Monday arrested a 17-year-old who was born in Cardiff, Wales, on suspicion of murder and attempted murder. In line with British law regarding minors, the police did not identify the suspect, and subsequently they warned that a name being circulated on social media was incorrect.

Alex Goss, the assistant chief constable of the Merseyside police, said on Tuesday night, “There has been much speculation and hypothesis around the status of a 17-year-old male who is currently in police custody and some individuals are using this to bring violence and disorder to our streets.”

He added, “We have already said that the person arrested was born in the U.K. and speculation helps nobody at this time.”

Many of those involved in the unrest, he noted, “do not live in the Merseyside area or care about the people of Merseyside.”

The outbreak of violence, in which rioters set police cars on fire, destroyed vehicles belonging to locals, threw bricks at the mosque and damaged a convenience store, was deeply distressing for a community still grappling with the raw emotions after Monday’s attack.

The police have said that they are still investigating the motive for the attack, but said it was “not being treated as terrorist-related.”

In a statement on Tuesday night, the British prime minister, Keir Starmer, condemned the rioting and vowed to hold those who took part accountable.

“Those who have hijacked the vigil for the victims with violence and thuggery have insulted the community as it grieves,” Mr. Starmer wrote in a statement. “They will feel the full force of the law.”

The North West Ambulance Service, which covers the region, said that 39 patients, all of whom were police officers, had been treated for injuries. Twenty-seven of those officers had to be taken to the hospital.

The violence began shortly after thousands had gathered in the town for a vigil to honor the victims of the attack, with many crowding a central square grasping bouquets of flowers and teddy bears.

A flood of disinformation online about the perpetrator of the attack was amplified by far-right influencers, including Tommy Robinson, an anti-Islam agitator and founder of the English Defence League, and Andrew Tate, another extremist online personality.

Merseyside Police later said that 22 of its officers had been injured and that eight had sustained serious injuries including fractures, lacerations, a suspected broken nose and a concussion.

Others had head injuries, facial injuries and one was knocked unconscious, the force said.

The violence occurred a short walk from where the initial stabbings took place on Monday. As the evening light turned to darkness on Tuesday, smoke from the riot drifted over the makeshift memorial that had sprung up, the acrid black fumes visible on the horizon over the piles of flowers.

Mr. Goss of the Merseyside Police said that a number of off-duty police officers had been called in to support their colleagues, and he applauded their dedication while criticizing those who took part in the disorder.

“This is no way to treat a community,” he said, “least of all a community that is still reeling from the events of Monday.”