The New York Times 2024-08-27 12:10:56


Middle East Crisis: Gaza Prepares to Launch Mass Polio Vaccination Campaign

TOP NEWS

As polio vaccines arrive in Gaza, distributing them is the next challenge.

More than 1.2 million doses of the polio vaccine arrived in Gaza on Monday, in preparation for an expansive effort to inoculate more than 640,000 Palestinian children and curb a potential outbreak, the United Nations, Israel and health authorities in Gaza said.

The vaccines landed after the first case of the disease in the territory in 25 years was confirmed earlier this month.

UNICEF, the U.N. children’s fund, said it was delivering the vaccines in cooperation with the World Health Organization, the main U.N. agency that aids Palestinians, UNRWA; and other groups. UNRWA officials said they hoped to deliver the first vaccines to Gazan children starting on Saturday.

But the campaign will be “a very difficult operation and its success will depend very much on the conditions on the ground at the time,” Sam Rose, a senior official from the agency, said at a news briefing on Monday.

The Gaza Health Ministry confirmed that the vaccines had reached Gaza and that preparations to begin the campaign to inoculate children under 10 were underway. It was not immediately clear how quickly the vaccines could be distributed to medical centers in Gaza, particularly after the U.N. said on Monday that its already hamstrung humanitarian operations had been brought to a temporary halt after the Israeli military ordered the evacuation of Deir al-Balah, where the agency has its central operations.

But a senior U.N. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because the official was not authorized to speak publicly about the issue, said at a briefing on Monday that there was no change to plans to begin polio vaccinations, despite the fact that the temporary pause in the U.N.’s humanitarian mission.

Speaking from Zawaida, in central Gaza, Mr. Rose, of UNRWA, said that more than 3,000 people would be involved in the vaccination campaign, about a third of them from UNRWA. Mobile health teams would help deliver the vaccines to shelters, clinics and schools, but he said a humanitarian pause was needed for parents and children to safely meet aid workers at those sites.

Aid workers “will do our absolute utmost to deliver the campaign because, without it, we know that the conditions will just be worse someday,” Mr. Rose said. “It is not guaranteed that it will be a success.”

For children who contract polio, he added, the prospects of receiving proper treatment remain “incredibly bad” while many of Gaza’s hospitals and health clinics are closed or only partly functioning as a result of the conflict.

The W.H.O. chief, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said in a statement on Thursday that a 10-month-old child in Gaza had contracted polio and had become paralyzed in one leg. The virus was found last month in wastewater samples, but this was the first confirmed case in Gaza in a quarter-century.

At least 95 percent of children in Gaza will need to receive both doses of the vaccine to prevent the spread of the disease and reduce the risk of its re-emergence, according to UNICEF, “given the severely disrupted health, water and sanitation systems in the Gaza Strip.”

UNICEF and the W.H.O. have called on “all parties” in the conflict to put in place a weeklong humanitarian pause in Gaza to allow both rounds of vaccines to be delivered, saying that “without the humanitarian pauses, the delivery of the campaign will not be possible.”

COGAT, the Israeli defense ministry’s agency that oversees policy for the Palestinian territories, said in a statement on Monday that the vaccines had been delivered to Gaza through the Kerem Shalom border crossing with Israel. The agency added that the campaign would be conducted in coordination with the Israeli military “as part of the routine humanitarian pauses” that it observes, which, it said, would allow Palestinians to reach vaccination centers.

In June, Israel announced that it would observe partial daily suspensions of its military activity in some areas of Gaza, calling them humanitarian pauses, saying they were aimed at making it safer for groups to deliver aid in the territory.

The Gazan Health Ministry has warned that inoculations alone will not be effective amid a lack of clean water and personal hygiene supplies in Gaza, as well as issues with sewage and waste collection in overcrowded areas where displaced families were sheltering. It said medical teams would have to spread out across the territory, “which requires an urgent cease-fire.”

Rawan Sheikh Ahmad, Anushka Patil and Ephrat Livni contributed reporting.

Key Developments

A blast sends people fleeing from a hospital in central Gaza, and other news.

  • New Israeli military evacuation orders in Deir al-Balah, in central Gaza, were followed by an explosion near Al Aqsa Martyrs Hospital that “triggered panic” and prompted many people to flee the facility, the medical charity Doctors Without Borders said early Monday. The group, which supports the hospital, said it was considering suspending some services there while trying to maintain lifesaving treatment after the latest evacuation orders issued on Sunday. The Gazan Health Ministry said in a statement on Monday morning that the hospital was still functioning, with nearly 100 patients remaining there out of about 650. The Israeli military said on Monday that its forces were operating on the outskirts of Deir al-Balah and had killed dozens of militants.

  • An Israeli airstrike on the Nur Shams refugee camp in the Israeli-occupied West Bank killed at least five Palestinians on Monday, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health. Israel’s military said on social media that it had attacked “an operations room” in the area but did not give additional details. The United Nations said last week that Israeli airstrikes on the West Bank had killed 128 Palestinians, including 26 children, since the war began in Gaza on Oct. 7.

  • A crude-oil tanker burning in the Red Sea may lead to “environmental disaster,” Matthew Miller, the State Department spokesman, said in a statement on Monday. He added that the tanker threatened to “spill a million barrels of oil,” or about four times as much oil as that released in the Exxon Valdez disaster off Alaska in 1989, and that the United States was “gravely concerned.” The crew of the Greek-flagged ship targeted last week was rescued, but the ship has been aflame ever since. Mr. Miller called on the Yemen-based Houthis to stop the attacks. The militia group backed by Iran has been striking commercial ships in the Red Sea in allegiance with Hamas in Gaza. Mr. Miller said the attacks showed that the Houthis “are willing to destroy the fishing industry and regional ecosystems” that they rely on for their own livelihoods. On Monday, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported that the authorities were investigating another episode off Yemen’s waters.

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U.S. will keep the Roosevelt aircraft carrier in the Middle East, amid tensions.

Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III has extended the tour of the Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier in the Middle East, the Pentagon said on Monday, reflecting the tensions in the region and persistent concern that Iran will retaliate for the assassination of a senior Hamas leader in Tehran.

Mr. Austin decided over the weekend to prolong the Roosevelt’s time in the region, Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary, told reporters on Monday, meaning that the United States will have two carriers and their accompanying warships there in the coming days.

The Pentagon’s decision comes after Israel and Hezbollah fired rockets, missiles and drones at each other over the weekend. Hezbollah had responded to the bombardment of southern Lebanon on Sunday by Israeli military aircraft to stop what Israel said were preparations for a major attack by the Lebanese-based militant group.

John Kirby, the White House’s national security spokesman, said, “We’re maintaining a pretty robust force posture there to be able to defend ourselves and defend Israel should it have come to that.”

He called Hezbollah’s attack on Israel over the weekend significant enough to prompt the movement of additional American forces into the region.

“What Hezbollah launched into the early morning hours Sunday was certainly a sizable attack,” Mr. Kirby said, “different in scope than what we tend to see on a daily basis between Israel and Hezbollah. Hopefully, it won’t.”

The carrier Abraham Lincoln arrived recently in the Gulf of Oman, where the Roosevelt has been operating. The Roosevelt had been scheduled to depart this week, but General Ryder declined to say how much longer the ship would remain in the region. Another Pentagon official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters, said it would be about two weeks.

The Pentagon’s move comes even as Israel and Hezbollah appeared to de-escalate after firing rockets, missiles and drones at each other over the weekend, averting a wider Middle East war, at least for now. But General Ryder said the United States must take seriously vows by Iran to avenge the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s political leader, last month.

Israel’s military has not commented on the assassination. But Hamas and Iran have blamed Israel for the killing, and U.S. intelligence has assessed that Israel was behind it.

“We continue to assess that there is a threat of attack, and we remain well postured to be able to support Israel’s defense, as well as to protect our forces,” General Ryder said.

As part of a coordination between the U.S. and Israeli militaries, Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, chief of the general staff of the Israeli military, met with the U.S. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., during his visit to Israel this week, the Israeli military said in a statement.

The commanders discussed security, strategic issues and strengthening regional partnerships as part of the response to threats in the Middle East, the statement said.

Johnatan Reiss contributed reporting from Tel Aviv, and Michael D. Shear from Washington.

Gaza cease-fire talks will continue in Cairo, officials say.

A day after Israel and Hezbollah traded major cross-border attacks but swiftly moved to contain a bigger war, the focus in the Middle East returned on Monday to the effort to achieve a cease-fire in Gaza, where Israel’s 10-month-long war with Hamas is at the heart of rising regional tensions.

Four days of talks concluded on Sunday with no breakthrough, after senior Israeli and Hamas officials arrived in Cairo to meet with mediators. Despite a full-bore diplomatic push from the Biden administration, the two sides remain far apart on several critical issues, including Israeli demands to retain a military presence along Gaza’s border with Egypt. Both Hamas and Egypt, which is mediating the talks along with Qatar and the United States, oppose those demands.

One U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive negotiations, said the senior-level talks in Cairo were constructive, and would continue with working-group discussions in the coming days. Hamas officials, as usual, did not participate in the meetings with Israeli and U.S. officials.

Negotiators in Cairo were working to refine an American proposal presented last week in Doha, Qatar, aimed at bridging key gaps between the two sides. The so-called bridging proposal builds on an earlier framework outlined by President Biden in May, and includes various amendments aimed at resolving the differences between Hamas and Israel, people briefed on the talks have said.

Under the proposal, the first phase would see a six-week cease-fire and the release of hostages in exchange for Palestinians detained by Israel. People displaced from northern Gaza would be able to return to their homes, many of which lie in ruins. During that time, Israeli forces would withdraw from populated areas of Gaza.

The second phase envisions a permanent cease-fire, while the third consists of a multiyear reconstruction plan for Gaza and the return of the remains of deceased hostages.

On Thursday, Israeli officials met with those from the United States and Egypt. On Friday, the U.S. and Egyptian teams held a bilateral consultation to strategize ahead of the talks.

Egyptian and Qatari negotiators then met with Hamas to walk through the bridging proposal paragraph by paragraph. The Hamas negotiators highlighted points of disagreement, which were brought to Egyptian, Qatari, American and Israeli negotiators on Sunday.

The technical level discussions are meant to continue this week in Cairo, with the aim of getting to an agreement that can be implemented.

American officials declined to outline the points of disagreement in detail, arguing that negotiating in public could only complicate matters.

But among the most difficult issues remaining, another American official said, is whether Israeli forces will remain on the Gaza side of the border with Egypt, and if so, how many. Israeli officials have reduced their demands in recent days, agreeing to accept a fewer number of checkpoints. But both Egypt and Hamas — which wants a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza — have been skeptical of any Israeli military presence on Gaza’s southern border.

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Evacuations halt the U.N.’s humanitarian missions in Gaza, at least temporarily.

UN. humanitarian operations in the Gaza Strip have ground to a halt, at least temporarily, after the Israeli military ordered the international organization to evacuate Deir al-Balah, the location of its central operations, a senior U.N. official told reporters at a briefing on Monday.

U.N. security personnel were working with the Israeli authorities to resume humanitarian work in the enclave as soon as possible, the U.N. official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly. The Israeli authorities were also working with the U.N. to facilitate the movement of aid, the U.N. official said.

Humanitarian work in Gaza is coordinated with the Israeli authorities, who can slow or stop such efforts depending on security concerns in the area. The Israeli authorities were able to facilitate fewer than half of the planned humanitarian missions and movements in the Gaza Strip in the first few weeks of August, OCHA said in a report on Friday, with more than half of missions and movements blocked, delayed, impeded or canceled.

“The high number of aid missions that the Israeli authorities do not facilitate means that people who barely have the means to survive — access to clean drinking water, adequate food and shelter, to name a few — are often left with nothing at all,” Georgios Petropoulos, the leader of OCHA’s Gaza sub-office, said in a statement to The New York Times.

The Gaza Coordination and Liaison Administration, an office of COGAT and the Israeli agency that coordinates humanitarian activities and movements, did not respond to a request for comment. The Israeli military directed comments to COGAT.

OCHA on Friday warned that “ongoing intense fighting, damaged roads, a breakdown of law and order and access challenges along the main humanitarian route” have led to critical food shortages. The number of children diagnosed with acute malnutrition through arm screenings increased substantially across Gaza between May and July, it reported, noting that since January, 14,750 children ages 6 months to nearly 5 years, out of 239,580 screened, had been diagnosed with acute malnutrition.

Anushka Patil contributed reporting.

Israel’s conflicts with Hezbollah and Hamas grind on, despite an apparent de-escalation.

After weeks of foreboding, an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah has been averted, at least for now, as both sides returned on Monday to more contained confrontations along the Israel-Lebanon border.

But any relief has been tempered by renewed anxiety and uncertainty: Despite the apparent postponement of a bigger regional war, Israel’s grinding conflicts with both Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza still have no end in sight.

The trajectories of both wars depend largely on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel and Yahya Sinwar of Hamas, who both fear for their own political survival should they agree to a cease-fire in Gaza on terms that they or their supporters deem unfavorable.

In negotiations for a truce in Gaza, Mr. Netanyahu is pushing for a temporary break in hostilities that will theoretically allow Israel to continue to fight Hamas after a few weeks, thus placating his supporters who oppose ending the war before Hamas is completely destroyed. By contrast, Mr. Sinwar wants a permanent cease-fire that, even if it collapses in a few months, will give Hamas a greater chance of rebuilding its arsenal and retaining power in Gaza.

Without a deal in Gaza, Hezbollah has vowed to continue its strikes along the Israel-Lebanon border, where any sudden miscalculation or mistake still risks transforming a relatively restricted fight into a bigger conflict involving Iran, the benefactor of both Hamas and Hezbollah.

Thus far at least, finding a way to satisfy both men has seemed nearly impossible.

For now, both Israel and Hezbollah have stepped back from the brink, a day after they exchanged some of the biggest salvos since the start of their 10-month cross-border battle. Israel’s defense minister spoke on Sunday of “the importance of avoiding regional escalation,” while Hezbollah’s leader said “people can take a breath and relax.”

Still, the fundamental dynamics of their fight, as well as the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, are stuck. Hundreds of thousands of people in Israel and Lebanon remain displaced by the fighting. Millions of Palestinians in Gaza remain homeless, large parts of the territory stand in ruin, and tens of thousands have been killed. And Iran has yet to respond militarily to Israel’s assassination of a Hamas leader last month in Tehran.

“Strategically, the situation has not changed and we are where we were,” said Shira Efron, an analyst at Israel Policy Forum, a New York-based research group.

“This in practice means continuous attritional war, with constant risk of escalation with no end in sight,” Ms. Efron said. “In the meantime, hundreds of thousands of Israelis and millions of Palestinians continue to suffer amidst a region teetering on the edge.”

A truce in Lebanon is dependent on a truce in Gaza, which remains a distant prospect given the contrasting goals of Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Sinwar. Four days of meetings between senior Israeli officials and U.S., Egyptian and Qatari mediators in Cairo concluded on Sunday without a breakthrough, although negotiators said talks with less senior officials would continue.

Hezbollah has said it will continue its battle until Israel agrees to a cease-fire with Hamas in Gaza. And its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, said in a speech on Sunday that the militia reserved the right to attack again to avenge Israel’s killing of a senior Hezbollah commander last month.

Despite a renewed push by the United States and optimistic comments from Biden administration officials, the Gaza cease-fire talks appear to be at an impasse.

Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is still opposed to clauses in the proposed truce agreement that would make it harder for Israel to resume battle after a weekslong pause, arguing that such a deal would allow Hamas to survive the war intact.

Mr. Netanyahu’s far-right coalition relies on lawmakers who have pledged to bring down his government if he agrees to such a deal, even as many Israelis publicly demand an agreement, saying it is the only way to free dozens of Israeli hostages still being held in Gaza.

Hamas, for its part, is determined to remain a force in postwar Gaza and has said it rejects any cease-fire that is temporary and does not ensure Israel’s complete withdrawal from Gaza. The group, along with Egypt, has pushed back strongly against Mr. Netanyahu’s insistence that Israel retain a military presence in a narrow strip of land along Gaza’s border with Egypt, which Israel has said is necessary to prevent Hamas from rearming through smuggling.

“Hamas is being asked to accept Israeli occupation of the Gaza Strip, entirely or partly,” said Ibrahim Dalalsha, director of the Horizon Center, a Palestinian research group in Ramallah, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

“Asking them to even consider such a condition is basically asking them to commit suicide, politically speaking,” Mr. Dalalsha added. “This is something Hamas would never, ever agree to.”

All eyes are now on Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Sinwar, in case either man has a change of heart, deciding that a deal would serve their interests, and agrees to a deal written with enough ambiguity to allow them to paper over their fundamental differences, at least temporarily.

In Israel, officials and analysts hoped that the averting of a regional war, and the clear decision by Hezbollah to moderate its actions on Sunday, might persuade Mr. Sinwar to soften his position.

Some Israelis believe that Mr. Sinwar has been trying to prolong the Gaza war long enough to ensure that Israel is dragged into a regional war across the Middle East. But Hezbollah’s decision to limit its attacks on Sunday suggested that it was unwilling to risk such an escalation because of the destruction it might bring to Lebanon.

Having understood that a regional war is now less likely, “maybe Sinwar will have greater appetite for a deal,” said Itamar Rabinovich, Israel’s former ambassador to Washington.

But others, like Mr. Dalalsha, believe that Mr. Sinwar may have been strengthened by Hezbollah’s strikes on Sunday, which showed that the Lebanese group is still willing to help its Gazan ally by forcing Israel to fight on two fronts at once.

“Hezbollah could have chosen to wait and not do anything,” Mr. Dalalsha said. Instead, the group gave “the sense to Hamas that they are not alone,” he added.

Either way, most analysts agree that both Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Sinwar have little interest in giving ground. By agreeing to a temporary truce, Mr. Sinwar would endanger Hamas’s survival as a functioning force in Gaza.

And by allowing Hamas to survive, angering some of his political allies, Mr. Netanyahu would endanger his own political future.

“I don’t really see an end in sight,” said Mr. Dalalsha. Mr. Sinwar has “political interest in ending the war and on the other side you have an Israeli prime minister who has political interest in continuing the war.”

Julian E. Barnes and Gabby Sobelman contributed reporting.

Captain of Sunken Yacht Under Investigation in Deaths on Ship

Italian authorities have opened a formal investigation into the actions of James Cutfield, the captain of the superyacht that sank last Monday off the coast of Sicily, killing seven of the 22 people on board, including British tech billionaire Mike Lynch.

Mr. Cutfield is under investigation for possible manslaughter and to determine whether his actions negligently caused the shipwreck, said his lawyer, Aldo Mordiglia.

In Italy, being put under investigation does not necessarily imply that formal charges will follow, and so far, the Italian authorities have not imposed any restrictions on Mr. Cutfield’s movements, Mr. Mordiglia added.

Prosecutors said Saturday said that while they had not issued any arrest warrants for the crew, they expected that crew members would cooperate with the investigation and be available to answer more questions. On Monday, most crew members were still in Italy. Prosecutors did not offer additional comment Monday on news of the investigation.

The 183-foot vessel, the Bayesian, sank as Mr. Lynch and his friends were celebrating his acquittal from a bruising fraud case. The boat sank early last Monday morning about half a mile off the port of Porticello, a small Italian fishing town, after it was caught in a strong, sudden storm.

Many questions remain as to why such a massive, luxurious and expensive boat could sink so quickly as another boat nearby weathered the storm largely unscathed.

The chief executive of the company that acquired the yacht’s manufacturer has been adamant that the boat was virtually unsinkable if all the correct procedures to operate it were followed. But many experts in the maritime field have pushed back, warning that too little is known about the accident and the weather conditions at the time to come to any conclusions.

Mr. Mordiglia declined to comment further on the case. Several crew members approached by The New York Times declined to comment.

For a week, the crew has been staying at a sprawling resort by Porticello, one of the few large hotels in the area. The resort has become an unlikely shelter for the survivors of such a dramatic accident, with loud group dances, speakers blaring Italian summer hits and water aerobics directives for the families vacationing.

The crew, some of whom were in their early 20s, kept to themselves and often sat together at the resort’s bar or restaurant, reacting with a firm “no comment” every time a Times reporter approached them.

Italian divers with the country’s firefighters corps found six bodies inside the yacht’s cabins. Italian authorities said on Saturday that they had not conducted any autopsies yet, and they said that they were going to extract the boat from underwater, a process that was likely to take at least several weeks.

Elisabetta Povoledo contributed reporting.

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In a First, a Chinese Military Plane Breaches Japan’s Territorial Airspace

A Chinese military surveillance plane breached Japanese airspace off the country’s southwestern coast on Monday, marking what Japan’s defense ministry described as the first known incursion by China’s military into its territorial airspace.

According to a ministry official, a Chinese reconnaissance aircraft briefly entered Japanese territory near Nagasaki Prefecture around 11:30 a.m. on Monday. In response, Japan’s Self-Defense Force put fighter jets on high alert and issued a warning to the Chinese aircraft.

While Chinese planes frequently appear in international airspace around Japan, this incident represents the first confirmed entry of a military aircraft into Japan’s territorial airspace.

Over the past two decades, Japan has increasingly faced foreign aircraft encroachments. Last year, Japan’s Self-Defense Force scrambled fighter jets to intercept foreign planes on 669 occasions — more than three times the number of such responses two decades ago.

Of these 669 cases, 479 were in response to Chinese aircraft sightings, according to Japan’s Ministry of Defense.

The incursion took place a day before Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser, is set to visit Beijing to hold talks with senior Chinese officials. The two sides are expected to discuss tense issues such as the status of Taiwan, the de facto independent island claimed by Beijing, and U.S. export controls of advanced technologies to China.

Military analysts suggest that Monday’s airspace violation could be a message from China challenging Japan’s delineation of its territorial border. China asserts control over a large continental shelf in the East China Sea, with its outer edge extending close to the Danjo Islands area, where the Chinese plane was spotted.

The airspace violation is the latest in a series of recent events heightening tensions between Japan and China.

Last week, a Chinese newscaster deviated from the script on a radio news program by Japan’s public broadcaster, asserting that the Senkaku Islands — controlled by Japan but claimed by China — are Chinese territory.

That same day, graffiti was discovered at the Yasukuni Shrine war-commemoration site in Tokyo using Chinese characters that appeared to read “toilet.”

Japanese officials summoned Chinese Embassy representatives to a meeting on Monday evening and urged them to prevent future incursions into Japanese airspace, according to a statement from Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

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Wave of Attacks Rattles a Restive Province in Pakistan

The violence began with blasts that ripped through a military camp in Pakistan’s Baluchistan Province late Sunday night, killing at least one soldier. Around the same time, armed men stormed into at least four police stations in the province, spraying bullets at officers and setting police vehicles on fire, local officials said.

By daybreak, militants had destroyed a bridge, bringing the major railway that runs across it to a halt. Then early Monday morning, the violence hit its apex when gunmen held up traffic on a major highway, shooting and killing nearly two dozen people.

Over a 24-hour period, the new wave of violence carried out by an armed separatist group has seized Baluchistan Province in southwestern Pakistan and left at least 38 people dead, worsening the country’s already deteriorating security situation.

The spate of coordinated attacks in Baluchistan began on Sunday, as the group, the Baluch Liberation Army, or B.L.A., announced that it was starting a new operation across the province. The B.L.A. is one of several insurgent groups that has demanded the province’s independence from the central government in Islamabad.

The deadliest single attack in the campaign so far unfolded in Musakhel, a district in Baluchistan, officials said, when armed men stopped traffic on a highway and demanded that passengers on buses and trucks show them their identity cards, officials said.

The gunmen forced some of the passengers out of the vehicles, and then shot and killed them, officials said. Nearly all of the victims were from Punjab Province, officials said, and the gunmen set at least 10 buses and trucks ablaze before fleeing the area.

Pakistani officials immediately condemned the attacks and instructed the authorities to carry out an investigation into them.

“No form of terrorism is acceptable in the country,” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said in a statement. “Our fight against terrorism will continue until the complete elimination of the scourge.”

Some security experts and analysts say the coordinated attacks point to an intelligence failure by the country’s powerful military, which has long been the ultimate authority in the country. The Pakistani authorities have said in recent years that they had quelled the decades-old insurgency, but the recent attacks were a worrying sign that the B.L.A. has become more capable than ever before, analysts say.

“This is the peak of the critical phase of the insurgency,” said Muhammad Amir Rana, the director of the Pak Institute for Peace Studies, which monitors extremist violence and is based in Islamabad. He added that the recent violence demonstrated a higher degree of coordination and planning by the B.L.A. than in previous attacks. Pakistan military officials say that security forces responded to each of the attacks and killed at least 21 insurgents.

“Security forces and law enforcement agencies of Pakistan in step with the nation, remain determined to thwart attempts at sabotaging peace, stability and progress of Baluchistan,” according to a statement from the military’s media wing.

Terrorism across Pakistan has surged since United States troops withdrew from neighboring Afghanistan in 2021 and the Taliban seized power.

Since the Taliban takeover, some militant groups have found safe haven on Afghan soil while a Taliban-led crackdown on the Islamic State affiliate in the region has pushed its fighters into Pakistan.

During the Taliban’s first year back in power, the number of terrorist attacks across Pakistan rose by around 50 percent compared with the year before, according to the Pak Institute for Peace Studies. Over the past two years, the number of violent attacks has continued to rise.

The violence has fueled tension between the Pakistani authorities and Taliban officials, who have denied offering support or protection to militant groups including Baluch separatists. It has also stoked concerns that the region could become a haven for international terrorist groups and that a wider conflict could break out in Pakistan’s border areas.

So far, the Pakistani authorities have been unable to quell the violence. American military support in the form of arms, intelligence, financing and more that once flowed freely into the country has dwindled since the American withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Many militants are armed with advanced U.S.-made weapons and equipment that they seized after the U.S.-backed Afghan government collapsed, according to Pakistani authorities.

The Pakistani police have said they feel underequipped to handle the new wave of violence. Residents in areas affected say they are increasingly frustrated by the government’s response. Some have accused the country’s powerful military of being more focused on meddling in Pakistani politics than providing security.

Baluchistan, an arid province that stretches between the borders with Afghanistan and Iran and the Arabian Sea, has been the scene of much of the violence. The province, which is roughly the size of Germany, is resource rich but home to only about 12 million people.

The region is also the site of a Chinese-operated deepwater port in Gwadar, a key piece of China’s Belt and Road Initiative in Pakistan, which has been a vital source of foreign investment and also a target of militant anger.

Since Pakistan’s founding in 1947, the province has endured several insurgencies driven at least in part by exploitation of its resources, and in recent years, militants have targeted Chinese development projects in the region. In response, those groups and residents in Baluchistan have faced heavy state repression and human rights abuses, human rights groups say.

The B.L.A. has been among the most persistent insurgent groups. Founded in the early 2000s, the group appeared to have been significantly weakened by 2020 after years of counterinsurgency operations and rifts among separatist groups. But in recent years, it has roared back — a feat highlighted by the operation that began on Sunday.

“Our fight is against the occupying Pakistani military,” the Baluch Liberation Army said in a statement before the attacks. “If the police interfere, we will attack them as well.”

The announcement coincided with the 18th anniversary of the death of Nawab Akbar Bugti, an influential tribal leader in Baluchistan who took up arms against the federal government in 2005 and was killed by the Pakistani military a year later. His death injected new energy into to the insurgency in the region, analysts say.

The spate of attacks rattled residents of the province, many of whom were already on edge after the uptick in violence over the past three years.

“Last night’s attacks and the previous ones have shown that the militants are highly organized,” said Ishaq Hayyat, a resident of Quetta, the capital of Baluchistan Province. “The attacks have really increased public fears — we’re concerned about our safety.”

Zia ur-Rehman contributed reporting.

China to Hold Live-Fire Drills Near War-Torn Myanmar

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China will hold live-fire military drills near its border with Myanmar starting on Tuesday, fortifying its boundaries with a southern neighbor that has been engulfed in a civil war for more than three years.

China’s People’s Liberation Army’s Southern Theater Command said on Monday that it would conduct both land and air exercises in the southwestern province of Yunnan to test the “joint strike capabilities of theater troops and maintain security and stability in the border areas.” China conducted two similar drills in April.

The patrols, which will last until Thursday, come less than two weeks after China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, visited Naypyidaw, Myanmar’s capital, and reaffirmed Beijing’s support for the ruling military junta, which seized power in a coup in 2021. Analysts say that despite Mr. Wang’s pledge of support, Beijing is using the drills to send a signal to the junta that it would like the military to return to Chinese-led peace talks with rebels and refrain from intensifying the conflict.

Myanmar, a country of about 55 million long fractured by ethnic divisions, has been thrown into fresh chaos as the military resumed control. Thousands have been killed and tens of thousands detained by the junta, which has been accused of committing atrocities and killing civilians by bombarding the country with airstrikes.

The junta’s violence has led to the emergence of a resistance movement made up of both civilians from Myanmar’s urban areas who had become rebels and battle-hardened insurgents in the border regions who have been fighting for autonomy for decades. Together, they control about two-thirds of the country, mostly along its frontiers, while the military government holds the major cities located in the central lowlands of the Irrawaddy Valley.

Resistance forces have been on the offensive for months, putting the junta on the back foot outside its strongholds. Mounting losses in troops and territory led the junta to impose a mandatory draft earlier this year.

China has been growing uneasy about the conflict, which has drawn closer to its borders, disrupting trade and raising concerns about the safety of Chinese nationals. Earlier this month, rebel forces overran a regional military base less than 100 miles from the Chinese border.

Myanmar “plays a crucial role in the development of China’s southwestern economy and national security,” said Song Zhongping, an independent defense analyst based in Beijing and a former Chinese military officer. “China is very concerned about peace and stability in the region, and even more concerned about the security of our borders.”

At stake are China’s investments in Myanmar, including multibillion-dollar plans to build an economic corridor from southwestern China to the Indian Ocean so that Chinese trade can bypass the Strait of Malacca, a high-traffic waterway near Malaysia. In July, anti-junta rebels captured a Chinese-backed nickel-mining project in the north about 160 miles from Mandalay.

China’s strategy in Myanmar has been to play both sides, said Jason Tower, the Myanmar director at the United States Institute of Peace, a nonpartisan research organization funded by the U.S. Congress. China cultivates economic, military and diplomatic ties with the junta while providing weapons and other supplies to rebel groups along the border, he said.

China used that influence to call for negotiations last December between the junta and rebel groups near the border called the Three Brotherhood Alliance. Talks collapsed in May, Mr. Tower said.

The junta has been frustrated by Chinese aid to the rebels, sending supporters to protest Beijing outside the Chinese Embassy in Yangon, Myanmar’s former capital and its largest city, Mr. Tower said.

Earlier this month, after the regional military base fell, the junta leader, Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, said that rebels were receiving arms, including drones and short-range missiles, from “foreign countries.” Though he did not name China, he said some arms and ammunition were coming from factories across the border with China. China is also a major supplier of weapons to the junta.

China needs to hedge because it is unclear who will ultimately hold power in Myanmar, said Ja Ian Chong, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore.

“Beijing wants stability and influence. They aren’t particularly wedded to any one party or approach, it seems to me,” Mr. Chong said.

During Mr. Wang’s visit to Myanmar, he said he hoped that Myanmar would protect Chinese citizens and projects in the country, maintain stability along the border, and work with China on cracking down on cross-border crimes.

In China’s view, the junta appears too weak to consolidate power, and the rebels too disparate to form a unity government, Mr. Tower said.

China is probably concerned that the junta may step up airstrikes on rebels near the Chinese border, where the regime has virtually no presence on the ground. “If the junta wants to recover some of the territory it lost, it will resort to using heavy airstrikes in the border areas,” Mr. Tower said. “That is a sensitive issue for China.”

Olivia Wang contributed reporting.

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No Evidence That Maduro Won, a Top Venezuelan Election Official Says

One of Venezuela’s top election officials, in a declaration sure to jolt the crisis-weary nation, said in an interview that he had no proof that Venezuela’s authoritarian president won last month’s election.

Since the July 28 vote, governments around the world have expressed skepticism, and even outright disbelief, over President Nicolás Maduro’s claim to victory. But the statement by Juan Carlos Delpino — an opposition-member of the government body that announced Mr. Maduro’s win — represents the first major criticism from inside the electoral system.

Speaking on the record to a reporter for the first time since the vote, Mr. Delpino said he “had not received any evidence” that Mr. Maduro actually won a majority of the vote.

Neither the electoral body nor Mr. Maduro has released tallies to support assertions that the president won re-election, while the opposition has published receipts from thousands of voting machines that show its candidate, Edmundo González, won an overwhelming majority.

In declaring Mr. Maduro the winner without evidence, the country’s election body “failed the country,” Mr. Delpino said. “I am ashamed, and I ask the Venezuelan people for forgiveness. Because the entire plan that was woven — to hold elections accepted by all — was not achieved.”

Mr. Delpino, a lawyer and one of two opposition-aligned members of Venezuela’s electoral council, spoke from hiding, afraid of government backlash. In recent weeks Mr. Maduro’s security forces have rounded up anyone who appears to doubt his claim to another six years in power, and many Venezuelans are fearful that his forces are crossing borders to go after enemies.

The National Electoral Council, known in Venezuela as the C.N.E., is the five-member body charged with deciding the framework of elections, as well as receiving and announcing results. These duties make it enormously powerful.

When the country’s legislature selected Mr. Delpino as a member of the council last August, many in Venezuela saw it as an attempt to give it a veneer of balance and legitimacy.

At the time, Mr. Delpino was living in the United States, and he returned to Venezuela to serve on the council out of “great levels of commitment” to the democratic process, he said.

Most in the country believed that the council was controlled by Mr. Maduro. But Mr. Delpino, a longtime member of an opposition party called Democratic Action, said he agreed to join out of a belief that the “electoral route” was the avenue for change.

A spokeswoman for the National Electoral Council did not respond to a request for comment.

The other opposition-aligned member of the council is Aime Nogal, who has not spoken publicly since the election and, unlike Mr. Delpino, has appeared at events held by the electoral body.

Reached for comment, Ms. Nogal said she was not granting any interviews.

The July vote pitted Mr. Maduro, whose socialist-inspired movement has been in power for 25 years, against Edmundo González, a previously little-known diplomat who had the backing of a popular opposition leader, María Corina Machado.

Just hours after polls closed on Election Day, the electoral council president — Elvis Amoroso, a longtime member of Mr. Maduro’s party — proclaimed Mr. Maduro the winner, with just over half of the vote.

That very evening, Mr. Delpino decided to stop participating in the council, he said, and he did not appear at a news conference announcing Mr. Maduro’s victory.

While Mr. Amoroso has yet to produce documentation proving that Mr. Maduro won, the opposition gathered the printed tallies of more than 25,000 voting machines on July 28.

Those 25,000 receipts — representing more than 80 percent of all machines used on Election Day — showed Mr. González had won 67 percent of the vote. In recent weeks the opposition has posted those receipts on its website.

Mr. Delpino declined to say whether he had the voting data received by the government.

But in a message he said he planned to post on X after his interview with The Times, Mr. Delpino cited a long list of irregularities that led him to “a loss of confidence in the integrity of the process and in the announced results.”

These irregularities, he wrote, include:

  • The National Electoral Council’s refusal to release machine-by-machine results.

  • Claims by election witnesses that they were kicked out of polling stations as the stations closed, making it impossible for them to oversee the final moments of the vote.

  • An interruption in the electronic transmission of results from voting machines to the council’s data hub. (This could create an opening to tamper with the data.)

  • The “worrying lack” of council meetings in the months before the vote, resulting in Mr. Amoroso’s making “unilateral” decisions about the process. This made it difficult for Mr. Delpino to push back against policies that tilted the election in Mr. Maduro’s favor, like barriers to registration abroad.

On the morning of the vote, Mr. Delpino awoke with optimism, he said in the interview, and he was at the electoral council’s headquarters in Caracas by 6 a.m. But by the end of the day, when he realized Mr. Amoroso was going to announce an “irreversible” victory for Mr. Maduro without proof, he went home, he said, rather than participate in the announcement.

Since the day of the vote, Diosdado Cabello, one of Mr. Maduro’s most powerful allies and the vice president of their party, has accused Mr. Delpino of being part of a “little group of terrorists” who hacked the electoral system in an attempt to rig a win for Mr. González.

(The month before the election, Mr. Delpino had criticized Mr. Amoroso’s management of the election council to a local news outlet, Efecto Cocuyo, helping to spotlight him as a target for the governing party.)

The United States has recognized Mr. González as the winner of the election, and even the governments of Colombia and Brazil — run by left-leaning leaders like Mr. Maduro — have expressed “grave doubts” that Mr. Maduro won.

All have called on Mr. Maduro and the National Electoral Council to release results by polling stations.

Two independent panels that observed the election in Venezuela, one from the United Nations and another from the Carter Center, have said it did not meet the minimum standards for a democratic vote.

If Mr. Maduro is inaugurated again in January, it will extend his movement’s time in power into its third decade. Under the president and his predecessor, Hugo Chávez, the oil-rich country has experienced an extraordinary economic decline, with mismanagement, corruption and U.S. sanctions eviscerating the economy.

Mr. Maduro is under investigation by the International Criminal Court on charges of crimes against humanity and is wanted by the United States on drug trafficking charges.

Since the vote, some Venezuelans have pressured Mr. Delpino to speak out and criticized him for taking weeks to do so. He said he was coming forward now out of a commitment to transparency.

In the years that Mr. Chávez and then Mr. Maduro consolidated control, some in the opposition have pushed for a military coup or foreign intervention.

But Mr. Delpino said that despite all he had seen in recent weeks, he thought elections were the answer to better future. “I believe even today that the answer for Venezuela is democratic,” he said.

“The answer is electoral. With another protagonist in the C.N.E., of course” — a reference to Mr. Amoroso — “but I believe in that electoral solution.”

Genevieve Glatsky contributed reporting from Bogotá.

Russia Pounds Ukraine With ‘One of the Largest Strikes’ of the War

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Moscow launched more than 200 missiles and drones across a wide swath of Ukraine on Monday, damaging energy facilities and sending residents of Kyiv into basements and subways to seek shelter. President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the assault as “one of the largest strikes” of the 30-month-old war.

The strikes occurred at a volatile time in the conflict, coming against the backdrop of Ukraine’s cross-border incursion into southern Russia — the first invasion on Russian soil since World War II. On Monday, Ukraine’s forces continued to try to advance in the region.

The offensive into the Kursk region has shifted the dynamics of the war after months in which Kyiv’s forces were on the defensive in Ukraine’s East. The push has slowed in recent days, but Mr. Zelensky said on Sunday that Ukrainian forces had advanced by one to three kilometers and taken control of two more settlements. It was not possible to verify the claim independently.

At the same time, Russian troops have been attacking relentlessly along the front line inside Ukraine, closing in on the key city of Pokrovsk and razing towns and villages with artillery barrages and glide bombs.

The drone and missile attacks on Monday, which began around dawn, targeted energy infrastructure in the capital, Kyiv, and in the regions of Lviv and Rivne in the West and Zaporizhzhia in the Southeast, the authorities said.

The strikes appeared to be an escalation of a Russian campaign against Ukraine’s power grid and inflicted damage significant enough to cause blackouts in Kyiv and other cities.

”Like most previous Russian strikes, this one is just as vile, targeting critical civilian infrastructure,” Mr. Zelensky said in a post on the Telegram messaging app. “There is a lot of damage in the energy sector,” he said, adding that crews were repairing the damage.

Russia has repeatedly targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure in attempts to damage the economy and compound civilian misery caused by the war.

Officials said at least four people had been killed and more than 30 others injured on Monday. An earlier estimate said that eight people had died.

Air-raid sirens have become a grim routine for many in Ukraine, and on Monday people in Kyiv sought shelter in basements and in the city’s subway system, whose stations are deep underground.

The mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, reported power and water outages in some parts of the city, and the head of the regional administration in Lviv, Maksym Kozytskyi, also reported power failures.

In the city of Lutsk in northwestern Ukraine, the attack damaged an apartment building, the city’s mayor, Ihor Polishchuk, wrote in a post on social media. He later said that one person had been killed. A 69-year-old man died in the Dnipropetrovsk region of southern Ukraine, according to the governor, ​​Serhii Lysak, while the governor of the Zaporizhzhia region, Ivan Fedorov, said that a man had died in an attack there.

There were also deaths in Kharkiv and Zhytomyr regions, the local authorities said.

The Russian Defense Ministry, which typically remains silent about attacks it conducts against cities and other civilian targets in Ukraine, said nothing on its Telegram channel.

The rate at which the Ukrainian Air Force said it was intercepting drones and missiles dipped earlier this year as its stockpiles dwindled and the U.S. Congress debated whether to keep sending American-made interceptor missiles. Supplies resumed in the spring after the United States passed a $61 billion aid bill, and this summer Western air defense systems have rushed into Ukraine.

Ukraine’s Air Force claimed it shot down or electronically disabled 201 of the 236 missiles and exploding drones Russia fired on Monday, a figure that could not be independently verified. The statement did not elaborate on how Ukraine had achieved the 85 percent success rate, but it was one of the highest of the war.

Ukraine said “all available weapons and equipment were used,” including fighter jets, ground-launched interceptor missiles and teams of soldiers with machine guns.

Ukraine has also increased its own attacks on military and infrastructure targets within Russia, hoping to slow its war effort, damage its economy and potentially sap civilian morale. Last week, it struck a sprawling oil and aviation fuel tank farm in Russia’s Rostov region, setting it ablaze.

On Monday, a fire broke out at Omsk oil refinery, one of the largest oil refineries in Russia, according to the Omsk regional governor, Vitaly Khotsenko, who said in a post on Telegram that one person had died and six others were injured. The governor did not say what caused the fire at the refinery, which is around 1,500 miles from the Ukrainian border.

The Russian strikes in Ukraine on Monday came a day after a missile strike on a hotel in the eastern city of Kramatorsk killed a British safety adviser working with a team of journalists from the Reuters news agency and wounded two of Reuters’s reporters. One of the journalists, a 40-year-old Ukrainian, remained in critical condition, while the other had been discharged from hospital, Reuters said in a statement on Monday.

Ukraine’s state prosecutor said on social media said it had opened an investigation into possible war crimes and that the residential neighborhood in Kramatorsk where the hotel was located had been deliberately targeted by Russian forces — though it is not known whether the hotel itself was a target.

Kramatorsk is around 16 miles west of the front line in Donetsk Province, which has experienced the heaviest fighting this year with Ukraine on the defensive. Mr. Zelensky said on Monday that Ukraine had decided to further strengthen its defense of Pokrovsk, an important road and rail hub.

More than 10,000 civilians have been killed in Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, according to United Nations data.

Ukrainian leaders used Monday’s attack to renew their call for permission to use weapons systems provided by the country’s allies in NATO, including the United States, to strike military targets in Russia. Dmytro Kuleba, the foreign minister, also called on Ukraine’s western neighbors to shoot down Russian missiles flying inside Ukraine near their borders, to ease the burden on Ukraine’s air defense forces.

“None of these decisions are escalatory,” Mr. Kuleba said on social media. “To the contrary, they will deter Russia.”

The Polish military said it had scrambled jets in its own air force during the attack and that one airborne object, probably a drone, had crossed into Polish airspace, Polish news media reported. The object most likely crashed about 18 miles from the Ukrainian border in Poland, the military said, adding that a search was underway.

Ukraine’s foreign ministry also issued a warning to Belarus on Sunday after Belarus massed troops from its own army and those serving in Russia’s Wagner mercenary group to an area near Ukraine’s border, near the Belarusian town of Gomel. The movements began after Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk region of Russia.

“We warn Belarusian officials not to make a tragic mistake for their country under Moscow’s pressure,” the statement said. If the forces attack over the border, the statement said, “all troop concentrations, military facilities and supply routes in Belarus will become legitimate targets.”

The air defenses provided by Ukraine’s allies are most effective in shielding Kyiv as well as strategic military and economic locations. Other cities are left thinly defended, sometimes by little more than soldiers who try to intercept drones and cruise missiles by firing machine guns mounted on the beds of pickup trucks.

Russia has been attacking Ukrainian cities with missiles and drones every few days in addition to launching daily barrages of artillery, mortar fire and missiles in areas near the front lines. On July 8, a missile slammed into Ukraine’s largest children’s hospital, which is in Kyiv, putting it out of action without killing any children. On the same day, attacks across the capital killed more than 30 people.

Natalia Novosyolova and Stas Kozljuk contributed reporting from Kyiv, Ukraine.

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Fox Hunters in the U.K. Want Protected Status Under Discrimination Law

English fox hunters have tried, for years, to push back against a nearly 20-year-old ban on their beloved sport.

The centuries-old tradition of using packs of dogs to chase and kill foxes — or any wild mammals — became illegal in England in 2005, after a long parliamentary struggle driven by campaigners and lawmakers who opposed it on animal welfare grounds.

So far, the law has stood, and fox hunting remains hugely unpopular among the general public: 80 percent of people in Britain think it should remain illegal, according to YouGov, a polling company.

Now, a pro-hunting activist has a new plan of attack.

Ed Swales, the activist, founded Hunting Kind, a lobby group that aims to protect hunting with dogs and other forms of hunting, in early 2022. He wants to use Britain’s Equality Act — which protects people from discrimination because of their age, race, sexuality or religion, among other things — to classify a pro-hunting stance as a protected belief.

That would put it in the same legal category as atheism, pacifism, ethical veganism, and, ironically, a moral opposition to fox hunting.

“If he’s ‘anti-hunt,’ well, you can be ‘hunt,’” Mr. Swales said. “It’s just the same law.”

Mr. Swales, 55, said he was preparing to bring a series of anti-discrimination lawsuits in the hope of setting a legal precedent that could, eventually, help reverse the fox-hunting ban.

“We’ve been doing this for millennia,” he said. Hunting is “literally part of our cultural heritage.”

Hunting itself is not illegal in England. Shooting deer, rabbits, duck and some other animals is allowed during hunting seasons, with permission from the landowner and a gun license.

But the hunting community is bracing for an anticipated challenge by Britain’s new Labour government, which pledged to ban trail hunting — where dogs follow a deliberately laid scent trail, usually of fox urine, instead of a real fox — in its election platform.

The British Hound Sports Association, which promotes and governs hunting with dogs in the U.K., says that by simulating traditional fox hunting, trail hunting allows the community to continue “to support the sport they love” despite the ban.

But animal rights activists say trail hunting can be a smoke screen for illegal fox hunting, because trails frequently run through land where foxes live, and foxhounds cannot always tell the difference between a fox and an artificial scent.

Last year, Chief Superintendent Matt Longman, England’s police lead on fox hunting, said that illegal hunting was “still common practice,” with trail hunts frequently taking place in natural fox habitats.

“Foxes often end up getting caught and killed by the dogs regardless,” said Josh Milburn, a lecturer in political philosophy at Loughborough University who studies animal rights.

Late last month, Mr. Swales sent out a survey to fellow hunters to try to find potential discrimination cases. He said many shared instances of verbal abuse or intimidation during recent hunting excursions. And this year, two venues canceled events for trail hunting groups after campaigns from anti-hunting activists. “They got told, ‘We are canceling you because we got so much pressure from the anti-hunt brigade,’” Mr. Swales said.

Some experts said that the planned discrimination lawsuits were a distraction from the debate over animal rights, which hunters with dogs have already lost in the court of public opinion. “In making this argument that fox hunters are the persecuted group, they’re trying, I think, to shift the conversation from talking about foxes to talking about people,” Dr. Milburn said.

Others questioned the idea that those who hunt with dogs — a community that has traditionally included some of Britain’s wealthiest landowners — needed special protection.

“Here we have an argument being made that in fact some of the most privileged in our society should also be protected on the basis of their shared activity chasing and killing a terrified wild animal,” Edie Bowles, the executive director of the Animal Law Foundation, a legal research charity, wrote in an email.

Several lawyers and academics who study discrimination said Mr. Swales’s argument might have some success, but the bar would be high. Under Britain’s 2010 Equality Act, a protected characteristic must “be a belief and not an opinion or viewpoint” and it must “not conflict with the fundamental rights of others.”

“The test requires that the belief be genuinely held and that it be sufficiently cogent and weighty and coherent,” said Colm O’Cinneide, a professor of constitutional and human rights law at University College London. A mere political opinion would not pass muster, he said: “There needs to be some sort of belief structure or framework.”

Experts said that a protected belief could be easier to argue than trying to define hunters as a minority ethnic grouplike Sikhs, Roma or Jews — which Mr. Swales has also proposed.

Speaking at a public event in late July, he claimed that his advisers had told him that “the qualifications of an ethnic group, there are five of them — we hit every one, straight in the bull’s-eye,” which he reiterated in interviews with The New York Times.

“The legal assessment is that we would qualify for both categories,” he said on Thursday.

But he has since backed off from the idea of starting with the minority group argument, saying his team would prepare protected belief arguments instead. “Pick the lowest hanging fruit first,” he said, paraphrasing his legal team.

Hunters have already tried, and failed, to argue that bans infringe upon their rights.

In 2007, a belief in fox hunting was explicitly denied protection in Scotland’s courts, where a judge found that “a person’s belief in his right to engage in an activity which he carries on for pleasure or recreation, however fervent or passionate,” did not compare to protected beliefs or religion, and therefore would not be covered under human rights law.

And in 2009, the European Court of Human Rights unanimously ruled that the ban on fox hunting with dogs did not violate human rights.

“If hunting can be shown to be more than a recreational activity, perhaps as part of a belief system in human supremacy over animals or human dominion over the earth, then a protected belief system could work,” Dr. John Adenitire, who teaches animal rights law at Queen Mary, University of London, wrote in an email.

For Mr. Swales, it is now or never.

His push comes after years of stewing about restrictions on hunting — without, he says, enough of a fight back from the hunting community.

“All we do is sit here and talk about it and drink sherry and bemoan and bewail our situation,” he said. “And nobody actually does anything.”

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