Where each candidate stands with just two weeks to go in high-stakes presidential race
Election night is two weeks away. As Vice President Harris and former President Trump dash to the finish line, this week’s forecast looks at their outreach efforts and the latest evidence of a smaller divide between national and state polling.
Plus, rankings changes in six competitive House districts.
Harris and Trump meet voters where they are
Last week’s Power Rankings showed that both parties’ coalitions have changed meaningfully since 2020.
For Democrats, the chief concern is that Harris still has fewer Black voters in her corner than President Biden.
To help fix that problem, the campaign dispatched its strongest surrogate, former President Obama, to Arizona and Nevada, and Harris spent an hour with Charlamagne Tha God to talk about policy, race, and religion.
The Vice President also went head-to-head with Fox News’ Bret Baier, part of an effort by her campaign to frame the candidate as tough and pragmatic. It was Harris’ highest-profile interview yet, but it will take another week before the effects show up in polls.
Meanwhile, Trump’s coalition has fewer women than in the last election, so the former President participated in a town hall with Fox News’ Harris Faulkner and an all-female audience.
Trump also continues to search for young and working-class voters. His appearance at a local McDonald’s in Pennsylvania produced some compelling imagery and was designed to paint Trump as an energetic and likable candidate.
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Right-wing voters with reservations about Trump could also make the difference on election night.
That is why Harris spent the beginning of the week with Republican former congresswoman Liz Cheney, who urged conservatives to vote for the Democratic ticket this year. It also explains why there are rumblings about Nikki Haley joining Trump on the campaign trail.
Inefficient vote could keep Harris in the game
Two polls of the national popular vote released last week show a uniquely tight race. Suffolk has Harris one point ahead of Trump at 50% to 49%; the Fox News Poll has Trump up by two, with the former president at 50% and Harris at 48%.
Results like that should make this Trump’s race to lose.
In 2020, Biden won the national vote by 4.5 points (51%-47%). That translated to very thin margins of victory in the battleground states. The president won Georgia, for example, by 0.2 points, and his largest victory in any battleground was by 2.8 points in Michigan.
Close national polls should therefore put Trump in the lead in the battlegrounds. But the statewide polls are close too.
A new set of polls show Harris ahead by 2-4 points in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Georgia, a tied race in Nevada, and Trump ahead by 3 in Arizona and North Carolina (/Schar).
The Power Rankings call all those states toss-ups.
Last week, the same Fox poll that put Trump ahead by two points nationally had Harris up six points among voters who live in the battleground states (52%-46%, with a 6.5-point subgroup margin of error).
Trump’s advantage primarily came from a larger share in counties he won by more than 10 points in 2020 (64-35%) than Harris had in counties Biden won by more than 10 points (58-39%).
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The results suggest that Trump could be banking “inefficient vote.” In other words, while the former president is performing better nationally than he was four years ago, the gains are concentrated in places he is already winning, like Florida, or rural counties.
While Harris may have lost some ground in safe Democratic states like New York, she remains competitive in the battlegrounds that decide the presidential election.
Other polls have raised the same question, but the most compelling evidence comes from the midterms.
Republicans received about 3 million more votes than Democrats in the national House vote (Cook), but eked out a balance of power win, with 222 seats to Democrats’ 213.
Put another way, the GOP banked a lot of votes in areas where it didn’t need them, and just enough in the battleground House races that would give them victory (a problem that has plagued the Democrats in the national vote for years).
The polls are all within the margin of error, and this is just one theory about the direction of the race. But on election night, a Trump blowout in Florida or a narrower spread in Virginia may not mean the race is over.
Six House races shift directions
The House is still a toss-up, with 208 seats in the Republican columns, 205 for the Democrats, and 22 districts that could go either way.
In today’s forecast, six races move to new categories:
First, New York’s 17th district, in the Hudson Valley, is home to one of the most competitive races on the map. Incumbent GOP Rep. Mike Lawler has a strong bipartisan brand in a centrist district. While Democratic challenger and former Rep. Mondaire Jones has tried to head in the same direction, he’s still dogged by his previous support for defunding the police and a spat with the Working Families Party (Jones will not appear on the ballot under that party’s name, though the party is now telling voters to support him anyway). This race moves from Toss Up to Lean R.
New York’s 1st district, home to both the Hamptons and rural farmland on Long Island, remains a competitive race between Republican Rep. Nick LaLota and the Democrat, former CNN anchor John Avlon. But the majority of this district’s voters backed Trump in 2020 and 2016, and Avlon has faced questions over the extent of his residency in the district. The race moves from Lean R to Likely R.
In the battleground Rust Belt states, a pair of districts held by pro-Trump Republicans have become even more competitive. First, Wisconsin’s 3rd district flipped to Rep. Derrick Van Orden in the midterms by a tight margin. The incumbent’s presence at the U.S. Capitol during the January 6 riots is a theme in his opponent’s ads. This race moves from Likely R to Lean R.
Meanwhile, Pennsylvania’s 10th district has been held by Freedom Caucus Rep. Scott Perry since 2013. Perry is the only sitting member of Congress whose cellphone was seized by the FBI in its investigation into efforts to illegally overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election, and that has also become a theme in television ads. It moves from Lean R to Toss Up.
Nevada’s 3rd district is still the best opportunity for Republicans to flip a seat in the Silver State, but a hotly competitive presidential race hasn’t so far translated into downballot success, particularly in the Senate race. This district almost touches Las Vegas, and includes Henderson. That’s favorable territory for Democratic Rep. Susie Lee in this Biden-majority district. She faces Republican Drew Johnson. It moves from Lean D to Likely D.
Finally, a sleeper race to watch in the northeast: Maryland’s 6th district, where Democrat April McClain Delaney faces Republican Neil Parrott. This should be safe territory for the left, but the party is investing here, and even made it part of one of its frontline programs. It moves from Solid D to Likely D.
Lies, damned lies, and statistics
As an anxious electorate counts down to election night, the political class is filling the void with data. Some numbers are more useful than others.
Harris dominates in fundraising and the ground game. Her campaign raised more than $1 billion this quarter and more than double what Trump raised in the last month, and Democrats have a much stronger get-out-the-vote operation. These are important advantages. In a tight race, they may get Harris over the line. On the other hand, Trump has won with deficits in both areas.
Comparing early vote figures to previous cycles is generally unhelpful. We expect fewer Americans to vote early, Democrats and Republicans are less likely to be divided on how they cast ballots, and breakdowns tell us the party registration of some voters, not how they voted.
Finally, since internal polls survey the same electorate as any other poll, they’re unlikely to produce a clearly different result. When they do, people should question whether the poll is an outlier, or whether the campaign that paid for the poll has a motive to characterize the race differently.
Two weeks until election night
Early voting is underway in every state, with more than fifteen million voters now casting a ballot.
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Next week, check back for the final Power Rankings forecast.
Israel strikes terror group’s naval base as Iran rallies Gulf Arab nations
Hezbollah launched a missile attack on central Israel on Tuesday, sending residents fleeing to shelters but causing no apparent damage or injuries, the Israeli authorities said.
The terrorist group fired five projectiles from within Lebanon into Israel, the Israeli military said, adding that most were intercepted by Israel’s missile defense system while one landed in an open area. Israeli police said there were no reports of damage or injury following the rocket barrage.
Meanwhile, Israel targeted a Hezbollah naval base in Beirut overnight, the Israeli military said Tuesday, as Iran worked to rally Gulf Arab nations ahead of a potential retaliatory strike from the Jewish State.
The Hezbollah naval base held a training center, an area to conduct experiments and military speedboats that were intended to be used in attacks on Israeli navy vessels and targets within Israel’s territorial waters, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said.
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Israel also conducted strikes on Hezbollah weapons storage facilities, command centers and additional terrorist targets in Beirut, some of which were located underground, the IDF said.
Israel took steps to mitigate the risk of harming civilians, including issuing precise and advanced warnings to civilians in the area before launching the strikes, according to the IDF.
The strikes come as speculation grows over how Israel will retaliate for Tehran’s Oct. 1 ballistic missile attack on Israel.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi insisted Tehran’s neighbors wouldn’t allow their territory to be used for such an assault and that it would strike back just as hard.
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“All the neighbors assured us that they will not allow their lands and air to be used against Iran,” Araghchi said, according to the state-run IRNA news agency. “This is an expectation from all friendly and neighboring countries and we consider this a sign of friendship.”
Gulf Arab nations have not made any public pledges like those described by Araghchi.
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Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Israel on Tuesday just hours after Hezbollah launched a barrage of rockets into central Israel as the U.S. looks to revive cease-fire efforts after the killing of top Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.
McDonald’s reacts to Trump’s viral day of work under the Golden Arches
Although McDonald’s agreed to former President Donald Trump’s fast-fry appearance this past weekend, the top fast food chain is reportedly not backing any candidate in the 2024 presidential race.
“Upon learning of the former president’s request, we approached it through the lens of one of our core values: we open our doors to everyone,” the company said in an email to employees obtained by the Associated Press.
“McDonald’s does not endorse candidates for elected office and that remains true in this race for the next president. We are not red or blue – we are golden.”
On Sunday, Trump took on a new role as he cooked and served french fries to customers at a McDonald’s in Pennsylvania, while dishing out plenty of jabs at Vice President Kamala Harris.
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“Hello, everybody. It’s my first day at McDonald’s, I’m looking for a job,” Trump said as he entered the establishment and shook hands with the owner.
Thousands of Trump supporters surrounded the McDonald’s restaurant as Trump spent the afternoon working as a fry cook after accusing Harris of lying about working at the fast food restaurant.
“I’ve now worked for 15 minutes more than Kamala at McDonald’s,” Trump said through the drive-thru window as he handed out orders.
McDonald’s additionally told the AP that franchisees have also reached out to the Democratic frontrunner and her running mate to visit their restaurants.
Harris’ campaign has repeatedly claimed that her first job was at McDonald’s, and the corporation mentioned in its email that it’s “proud to hear” of “Harris’s fond memories working under the arches.”
“While we and our franchisees don’t have records for all positions dating back to the early ‘80s, what makes ‘1 in 8’ so powerful is the shared experience so many Americans have had,” McDonald’s said.
Trump said he also spoke with McDonald’s about Harris’ claims that she worked at the fast-food chain.
“She shouldn’t lie about it,” the former president said on Sunday. “McDonald’s confirmed four times that she never worked here. But, let’s not talk about that. It’s an amazing business. It’s an amazing country. And we’re going to make America greater than ever before.”
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The owner of the Feasterville, Pennsylvania, McDonald’s shared a statement with Fox News Digital, highlighting the importance of the former president’s visit.
“As a small, independent business owner, it is a fundamental value of my organization that we proudly open our doors to everyone who visits the Feasterville community. That’s why I accepted former President Trump’s request to observe the transformative working experience that 1 in 8 Americans have had: a job at McDonald’s,” owner and operator Derek Giacomantonio said.
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Southern battleground state poll shows which candidate has edge in fiercely tight race
Former President Trump holds a slight lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the key swing state of Georgia, according to a new poll.
The poll, conducted by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and the University of Georgia, found Trump at 47% support in the state, compared to Harris’ 43%. A sizable 8% of respondents said they remain undecided, however.
The Georgia poll surveyed 1,000 of the state’s likely voters from Oct. 7-16. The poll advertises a margin of error of 3.1%.
The poll further found that 60% of respondents say the country is on the wrong track, and their top issues were inflation/cost of living (19%), the economy/jobs (17%), preserving democracy (17%), immigration (14%) and abortion (8%).
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The poll comes as Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger is facing pressure to release the results of a voter roll audit he announced this summer.
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“Millions of illegal immigrants have flooded our country since 2021, and it’s well-documented that thousands of them have successfully registered to vote in multiple states. But even with early voting now underway, Georgia voters are still waiting for confirmation that non-citizens are not casting ballots in our elections,” former Sen. Kelly Loeffler, who now serves as the chairwoman for the group behind the effort, Greater Georgia, said in a release obtained exclusively by Fox News Digital.
The comments come more than three months after Raffensperger announced the state was conducting a “SAVE audit” of noncitizens who may have registered to vote, which he called a “vital step in maintaining election security and integrity in Georgia.”
“We are double-checking to make sure that if any non-citizens attempt to register to vote, they will not be able to vote unless they prove that they are U.S. citizens,” Raffensberger said in a release at the time, which also warned of prison sentences of up to 10 years and fines of up to $100,000 for noncitizens who register to vote in the state.
Raffensperger told NewsNation just a few weeks later that the audit was complete, boasting that he could promise residents of the state that “only American citizens are voting.”
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Reached for comment by Fox News Digital, a spokesperson for the Georgia Secretary of State’s office said that Raffensperger will hold a press conference on Wednesday to announce the results of the audit.
Forget the polls — new crystal ball giving voters a ‘reliable indicator’ of election results
Former President Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, has opened up a sizable advantage in the election betting odds in recent weeks, giving Americans a new way of trying to piece together what might happen come Election Day.
“More than two billion dollars have been bet on the election already,” Maxim Lott, who runs ElectionBettingOdds.com, told Fox News Digital.
The comments come as Lott’s website, which uses data from five different betting sites to display a betting average, shows Trump has a 58.5% chance of winning the presidential election as of Monday.
Lott’s website isn’t the only one tracking the betting odds, with popular sites such as RealClearPolitics, which has become known over the years for tracking polling averages, joining the fray.
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Like ElectionBettingOdds.com, the RealClearPolitics betting average shows Trump as the favorite with a 59% chance to win the election as of Monday.
Trump’s chances of winning the election have dramatically risen over the last few weeks, with his Democrat opponent, Vice President Harris, being the betting favorite on RealClearPolitics as recently as Oct. 4. But Trump took the lead the next day and hasn’t looked back, eventually rising to the nearly 20 percentage-point advantage the former president enjoyed on Monday.
For Lott, looking at betting averages gives people a much clearer picture of what the most likely outcome of the election is compared to trying to piece together polls.
“These are really accurate, they’re more accurate than just trying to look at polls or especially more accurate than listening to pundits bloviating,” Lott said.
“[The bettors] look at all sorts of historical data, they look at trends,” he added. “I find the percent more useful than the polls.”
CHECK OUT THE LATEST FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS IN THE 2024 ELECTION
Lott, who previously served as a program executive producer for the Fox Business Network, also noted that people risk their own money to make a bet on an outcome, creating a market that has the ability to “discipline people” who get it wrong.
“If you’re not very smart, or very biased, you’re going to lose your money pretty quickly, and then maybe you won’t bet again next election,” Lott said.
While betting on elections is newer than more well-known gambling pastimes such as sports betting and casino games, Lott said the market has become robust enough to offer election followers a glimpse into what the most likely outcome will be.
“Last cycle we had more than a billion dollars traded. That’s still [not] that much if you compare it to … the stock market or something, but it’s enough that we have a reliable indicator, and that’s what [is] important to us as users who just want to know what’s going to happen,” Lott said.
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As for Trump’s lead, Lott said it likely reflects an end to the “honeymoon period” Harris enjoyed after being elevated as the Democrat nominee, noting that Trump had risen to around 70% likely to win the election before President Biden dropped his bid for re-election and has bounced back into the lead once again.
“Things have kind of reverted back to the mean where – it is a tough cycle for Democrats with things like inflation and immigration, and so maybe for a couple months people were like, ‘Oh, Harris, this is interesting, this is new, this is refreshing,’ and then it’s kind of sinking in: ‘This is the same administration we didn’t like with Biden,” Lott said.
Two reasons CBS News won’t release unedited Harris interview, columnist claims
CBS News’ defiant statement defending its controversial edit of its “60 Minutes” interview with Vice President Kamala Harris earlier this month fell flat with critics, who have ramped up calls for the network to release an unedited transcript.
After weeks of staying silent despite growing criticism over the interview, CBS published a statement Sunday evening addressing the outrage that ensued after airing two different answers to the same question in the “60 Minutes” interview earlier this month with the Democratic nominee.
CBS News infamously aired Harris offering a widely mocked, rambling answer to a critical question about Israel when promoting the interview, but a shorter answer to the same question was shown instead in primetime on “60 Minutes.” CBS News’ statement said former President Trump’s claim the “deceitful editing” was used is “false,” and explained that producers used a “more succinct” portion of Harris’ answer.
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“Instead of releasing the full 60 Minutes interview and transcript, CBS released a statement somehow blaming Donald Trump,” Media Research Center founder Brent Bozell told Fox News Digital.
“Is CBS a news organization or a Democrat Super PAC?” Bozell added. “If CBS has nothing to hide, it should stop hiding.”
Fox News contributor Joe Concha noted that it took 14 days for CBS News to put out a statement.
“This statement ’60 Minutes’ issued is absolutely meaningless,” Concha said Monday on “FOX & Friends First.”
“The only resolution here is for the program to release the full transcript. Release the hounds, release the interview in its entirety from start to finish, but the network won’t do that,” Concha continued. “You know why they won’t do that?”
Concha believes there are two reasons why CBS won’t oblige.
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“One, the people that run the network want Kamala Harris to win and Donald Trump to lose. This ain’t about journalism, it’s about activism,” Concha said.
“Two, they know by releasing the transcript, or the unedited video, it will likely show that on multiple occasions, this interview cut the guts out of the various word salad the vice president again served up,” he added. “Her campaign now is only reduced to talking about Trump. It’s not working.”
Former President Trump dramatically called it possibly the “biggest scandal in broadcast history” in a message posted to X.
Trump also sent a letter to CBS News demanding it release the unedited transcript. In a copy of the letter obtained by Fox News Digital, Trump’s legal counsel Edward Andrew Paltzik, writing on behalf of Trump, said that CBS News “intentionally misled the public by broadcasting a skillfully edited interview transcript… aimed at causing confusion among the electorate regarding Vice President Kamala Harris’s abilities, intelligence, and appeal.”
OutKick’s Dan Zaksheske said CBS could “release the entire interview or the transcript” and put this ordeal to bed.
“It’s 2024. It’s not like CBS has to air the interview on network television. Put it on YouTube. It would probably get 10 million views. It should be easy and generate additional viewership for the interview,” Zaksheske wrote.
“The only reason they wouldn’t do that is if they don’t want people to see the entire interview,” he added. “That’s what makes people suspicious.”
Cornell Law School professor William A. Jacobson believes releasing the full transcript is “essential since on its face there seems to be an inconsistency between the two answers aired” by the network.
“If in fact CBS News cherry picked different segments of a longer answer, as it claims, then the public still should see the full answer and context. If CBS News has nothing to hide, then why is it hiding the full transcript?” Jacobson told Fox News Digital.
The Trump campaign released a scathing comment in response to CBS News’ explanation, and the “60 Minutes” statement was quickly blasted on social media.
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“The way you know that 60 Minutes is 100% guilty and just pissed off about being caught is they released this pathetically defensive statement that almost immediately goes ‘but Trump’ instead of releasing the full transcript of Kamala’s interview,” conservative influencer Greg Price responded.
NewsBusters managing editor Curtis Houck asked, “What are you all hiding?”
“Publish. The. Transcript,” Article 3 Project senior counsel Will Chamberlain responded while celebrity chef Andrew Gruel said, “This just made it worse.”
Fox News contributor Mollie Hemingway continued calls for CBS to release an unedited transcript.
“60 Minutes continues to conceal the unedited transcript of its interview with Kamala Harris. Here, they also lie about the controversy surrounding that transcript. The extent of their deceptive edits must be SIGNIFICANT for them to refuse to release the actual transcript,” Hemingway wrote.
Hemingway added in a separate post, “RELEASE THE UNEDITED TRANSCRIPT. How bad is what you’re hiding?”
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., agreed and called for CBS News to “release the FULL transcript and video.”
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“When you’re explaining… you’re losing,” comedian Tim Young added.
“Seems like it would be a lot easier to just publish the transcript… Something that btw should be standard procedure for all news organizations for interviews with political candidates,” AG Hamilton reacted.
Others have mocked CBS News over the explanation:
CBS News’ statement insisted the two soundbites of Harris were both in response to correspondent Bill Whitaker asking why it seemed like Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wasn’t listening to the U.S.
“Former President Donald Trump is accusing 60 Minutes of deceitful editing of our Oct. 7 interview with Vice President Kamala Harris. That is false,” the statement began.
“’60 Minutes’ gave an excerpt of our interview to ‘Face the Nation’ that used a longer section of her answer than that on ‘60 Minutes.’ Same question. Same answer. But a different portion of the response. When we edit any interview, whether a politician, an athlete, or movie star, we strive to be clear, accurate and on point. The portion of her answer on ‘60 Minutes’ was more succinct, which allows time for other subjects in a wide-ranging 21-minute-long segment.”
The statement then said that Trump “pulled out of his interview with ‘60 Minutes’ and the vice president participated.” The Trump campaign denied that it had ever formally accepted the invitation for the interview.
“Our long-standing invitation to former President Trump remains open,” the statement continued. “If he would like to discuss the issues facing the nation and the Harris interview, we would be happy to have him on 60 Minutes.”
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DePauw University professor Jeffrey McCall said that CBS “may not know it” but a key issue in the campaign is whether Harris can coherently express her positions and thoughts and the statement “hardly puts the matter to rest.”
“She has developed a reputation as someone who has trouble articulating her rhetorical points, and sometimes ends up speaking in ‘word salads.’ So, when CBS engages in any kind of editing of a news interview with Harris, it is in effect manipulating and altering the content. Given that it is CBS doing the editing, most Americans would presume the editing is being done to help Harris come off as more articulate than she otherwise would,” McCall told Fox News Digital.
CBS News did not immediately respond on Monday when asked if it would release the transcript. The network has ignored calls to release the transcript or the unedited footage since the controversy began.
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Trucker’s viral hack confronts a major election issue squeezing Americans’ wallets
Liam Houghton has been a truck driver for so long, he can’t even remember how many years he’s been doing it.
It’s been at least a dozen years, but “you start losing track” when you’ve been doing it for as long as he has, Houghton told Fox News Digital in a Zoom interview from his home in England. (See the video at the top of this article.)
Until recently, he pretty much lived a life of anonymity while on the road. Once he started posting social media videos showing his skill at making elaborate meals from the comfort of his truck — that all changed.
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“To me, it’s a normal thing to do,” Houghton, 38, said of cooking in his truck. “Well, I thought it was.”
There’s been very strong interest from others in watching “Trucker Liam” cook his dinner between long hauls.
“I guess they don’t know what happens when they see a truck pulled over, what they’re doing inside,” Houghton surmised. “So, I guess they’re just quite interested in how we live behind the curtains when the curtains are closed.”
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Houghton’s recent videos have shown him cooking everything from a T-bone steak and roasted chicken to a rack of lamb.
But it was his lasagna with Bolognese sauce that surprised him the most.
Houghton had wanted lasagna, but he didn’t have the exact ingredients for it.
So he paired the pasta with whatever he had available to him in the truck and called it lasagna.
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“I thought it was actually going to turn out absolutely [like] crap, but it actually turned out all right,” Houghton admitted. “And it tasted even better.”
Houghton said he buys all his food at the start of the week but doesn’t plan his dinner during long drives. Whenever he starts to feel hungry, Houghton said, he’ll determine how much driving time is left, pull over and use what’s available to make his next meal.
“That night I really fancied lasagna, but I didn’t have all the stuff with me, so I just kind of threw some of it together,” Houghton said.
“I recorded it. Obviously, if it didn’t turn out well, I wouldn’t have posted it — but it turned out OK. So I uploaded it online and it seemed to have done well.”
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Houghton doesn’t particularly have a favorite truck-made dish. He just knows that whatever he makes will be better for him than a typical microwave meal.
He’d rather eat “fresh food” than “this factory-made stuff.”
“A lot of truckers do that,” he said. “And to be fair, I always used to do that a lot when I first started driving. And you read the [label on the] back, and it’s just full of preservatives and rubbish.”
Houghton said he’d rather eat “fresh food” than “this factory-made stuff.”
“That’s [why] I started doing my own meals,” he said.
Houghton’s truck has an air fryer, a microwave, a small refrigerator, an induction cooktop on the dashboard and storage space for pots, pans, plates and utensils, he said.
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He’s got other goodies in his truck, too, such as a flat-screen television, game consoles and access to streaming devices. There’s even a bed for him to rest.
But it’s his food posts that have made “Trucker Liam” an internet sensation.
“I’m just a trucker,” Houghton said.
“I cook food like everybody else does, but I’m the idiot [who] records it and puts it online. That’s the only difference.”