INDEPENDENT 2024-11-09 12:09:39


What Trump’s election victory means for Taiwan and China

When Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump in 2020 it took China almost a week to issue an official message to congratulate him, as the outgoing president challenged the election results. This time, as Mr Trump won a convincing victory to seal his return to the White House, the Chinese foreign ministry was far prompter in its response.

President Xi Jinping and president-elect Trump have already spoken over a phone call, according to reports. But the two leaders, who have a history of terse exchanges and strategic rivalry, are yet to announce their first interaction since Mr Trump’s return.

With the change in administration in the US, global leaders are closely watching how the incoming president navigates the China question, as how things play out between the two largest economies will have ripple effects not only for America but for the rest of the world.

“I think China would be slightly relieved if not celebrating Trump’s victory,” Derek Grossman, a senior defence analyst at the RAND think tank, told The Independent.

“The main difference between Harris and Trump is that Trump at least offers the opportunity for some sort of grand strategic bargain. Whereas Harris wouldn’t offer that opportunity at all and would have continued the Biden administration’s approach in the Indo Pacific, which is to strengthen alliances and partnerships to counter China right now,” he said.

More economically vulnerable now, China is bracing for an even bigger trade war as the Republican leader has threatened to slap blanket 60 per cent tariffs on all Chinese exports to the US if he lives up to his campaign promises.

During his first presidency, Mr Trump engaged China in a trade war, imposing tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese imports, sparking a tit-for-tat chain of reaction. The tariffs to punish China for alleged unfair practices and pressure it to make economic reforms disrupted global markets and led to tensions that went beyond trade, affecting diplomatic relations.

The tariffs, which could decimate the trade between the two countries, would be a significant blow to China’s ailing economy which is suffering from high youth unemployment, a lengthy property slump, and government debt.

“Beijing is particularly concerned about a potential revival of the trade war under Trump, especially given China’s current internal economic challenges, which leave it with less capacity to respond than during Trump’s first term,” Tong Zhao, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told The Independent.

Despite fears of renewed tariffs, Beijing believes Mr Trump’s tough trade policies would be deeply unpopular with US allies and partners in Europe and the Asia-Pacific as well, “creating an opportunity for China to strengthen ties with these countries”, he said.

A 60 per cent tariff on Chinese imports could reduce China’s expected economic growth by 2.5 percentage points, or about half, according to a Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) analysis published earlier this year.

“This concern may prompt Beijing to delay or scale back anticipated economic stimulus packages in the short term, conserving policy tools for when Trump assumes office,” Mr Zhao underscored.

Beijing-based commentator Einar Tangen, a senior fellow at Chinese think tank, Taihe Institute, emphasised the financial risks of Mr Trump’s “reshoring” agenda, which aims to revive American manufacturing by bringing industries back from overseas.

He noted that the high cost of domestic production, including “higher wages, development, and logistics costs”, posed a formidable challenge to sustaining such a policy.

“The result will be 8 to 10 trillion dollars added to the US debt pile in a futile effort to hold back the existing economic tide,” he said.

The tariffs on $360bn of Chinese products brought Beijing to the negotiating table after nearly two years. The two countries signed a trade deal in 2020 in which China committed to increase its purchases of American goods and services, enhance protections for intellectual property, and improve market access for American firms.

The so-called landmark Phase One trade deal that would have seen China purchase an additional $200bn worth of American goods over two years did not materialise as Covid-19 pandemic disrupted trade flows.

“Trump has been a little frustrated that the US-China trade deal that he helped create didn’t really take off because of Covid. But then also he received a lot of criticism that it wasn’t really in the US’s interest in terms of what he signed with Beijing,” said Mr Grossman.

“A second trade deal and stronger one is on the table during the second term,” he added. China could be easily brought back to the negotiating table due its weak economic situation, he said.

Taiwan, which China claims as a breakaway province, remains another major issue Beijing will need to negotiate with the Trump government when it assumes power.

For decades, Washington has cautiously followed a bipartisan policy of strategic ambiguity on Taiwan to deter China from invading. The US is Taiwan’s most important arms supplier and the self governing island has closely watched the election play out.

California-based Grossman said Mr Trump would be expected to continue the Indo-Pacific strategy laid out under his first administration – which was built upon rather than scrapped under the Biden administration – to strengthen alliances with countries like Japan, South Korea, India, and Australia as part of a broader strategy to counterbalance China’s regional influence.

But Mr Trump’s transactional approach to relationships with countries and territories that rely on the US military for their defence will raise concern in the region at a time when the threat of aggressive moves by China has never been greater.

On the campaign trail, Mr Trump said “Taiwan should pay us for defence” as America has been “no different than an insurance company”.

“I worry about Taiwan, I worry about our position in the South China Sea and our support to allies and partners because this potentially going a radical departure from what we’ve seen across the last several decades,” Mr Grossman said.

Beijing would be expected to “maintain red lines around its security and territorial integrity” regardless of who won the US election, Mr Tangen suggested, while China is likely to take a more measured approach in response to Trump tariffs than in his first administration.

Mr Xi’s congratulatory message may have been quicker this time round but it was also noticeably more subdued than his earlier one to Mr Trump in November 2016. He urged Washington and Beijing to find the “right way to get along in the new era” to benefit both countries and the wider world.

“History teaches that China and the United States gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation,” Mr Xi said, according to state media Xinhua, noting that “a stable, sound and sustainable China-US relationship serves the two countries’ shared interests”.

Having previously managed relations with Mr Trump during his first term, this scenario is not entirely uncharted territory for Taiwan, Sana Hashmi, a Taipei-based foreign relations expert, says. But it is Mr Trump’s transactional approach that worries Taipei leaders.

“Taiwan has more reason to be concerned in this regard, especially considering Biden’s assertions about defending Taiwan, which were later walked back by the White House – but they still made an impact,” she says.

“Trump, on the other hand, did not make such commitments; instead, he accused Taiwan of taking advantage of the US semiconductor industry.”

If Trump shows weaker commitment to defending Taiwan than his predecessor, Mr Zhao says Beijing could seek greater concessions from Washington on the issue, using a mix of “positive incentives and coercive pressure” to push the US to scale back its military and political support for the island.

New owner of Matthew Perry’s home says she will honour his legacy

Real estate consultant Anita Verma-Lallian, who bought Matthew Perry’s former home in Los Angeles, has opened up about her reasons for purchasing it and how she plans to honour the legacy of its former owner.

Verma-Lallian, who also founded a film production company, posted photos on social media showing her in the house, holding a traditional Hindu blessing ceremony for a new property.

“The moment I walked into the home, I absolutely fell in love with the features, especially the view of the Pacific Ocean. We knew it was ‘the one’ and decided to write an offer on it immediately,” she wrote.

“As a real estate developer myself, I believe every property has a history that we may or may not know about, and every home carries the energy that the current owner brings to it.  I am Hindu, and it’s customary to do a blessing and prayer anytime you buy a new home.”

Verma-Lallian explained that her decision to buy the house had nothing to do with who lived in it but she planned to retain some of the original features of the house.

“We chose to honour the positive aspects of the previous owner’s life, his immense talent, and all the joy he brought to so many people. The decision to purchase the home had nothing to do with the previous owner, just our love of the home,” she said.

“We do plan to keep some of the design elements. The batman logo in the pool is definitely staying.”

Perry died on 28 October 2023, aged 54 from the “acute effects of Ketamine” after taking the drug in unsupervised doses. An investigation was launched into his death with three arrests made, including of a doctor who has pleaded guilty to supplying the star with the fatal final quantity.

The 3,500sqft four-bedroom mid-century home built in 1965 was purchased by Perry in 2020 for $6m, according to The New York Times. He went on to do extensive renovations on the property, including the addition of an outdoor pool.

A Batman fan, Perry referred to himself as Mattman and shared photos of Batman-themed decor in his house.

Verma-Lallian purchased the house off-market for $8.55m and said she intended to use it as a vacation home.

Perry owned several homes over the course of his career as one of television’s highest-paid stars. While closing on his Palisades property, he also listed a beach house in Malibu for $14.95m. The house was sold in 2021 for $13.1m after the asking price was lowered twice.

He also sold his 9,300sqft penthouse in Los Angeles that same year for $21.6m, having bought the property in 2017 for $20m.

On the anniversary of the actor’s death last month, his <em>Friends</em> co-star Jennifer Aniston shared a touching tribute. Alongside a final image of Perry laughing, she shared a photo of her hugging the star in the early days of their career, one from them on the set of the record-breaking sitcom, and one of the cast in a group hug.

She captioned the post simply, writing “One year” with a bandaged heart emoji and a flying dove. She also tagged the Matthew Perry Foundation in the post. The foundation was set up in the days after the actor’s death by his former longtime publicist Lisa Kasteler and manager Dough Chapin.

Why are women discussing the ‘4B movement’ after Trump’s election win?

The South Korean 4B movement has seen a spike in interest amid the results from the 2024 US presidential election.

On Wednesday (November 6) morning, Republican candidate Donald Trump claimed victory over Vice President Kamala Harris. Throughout his 2024 reelection campaign, the former president has celebrated the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to overturn Roe v Wade, a ruling that ended a nationwide right to abortion. It was also reproductive rights that propelled many women to the polls on Election Day as Missouri became the first state to undo a restrictive abortion ban.

However, after Trump declared victory over Democratic nominee Harris, some Americans couldn’t help but say they felt reaffirmed in their belief that most of the United States would rather anyone else as president than a woman. Perhaps that’s why interest in South Korea’s 4B movement – a movement against patriarchy – has spiked in the US just hours after Trump’s win.

“American women, looks like it’s time to get influenced by Korea’s 4B movement,” one woman wrote on X/Twitter.

“American women, it’s time to learn from the Koreans and adopt the 4B movement,” another user echoed, while a third person said: “The women in South Korea are doing it. It’s time we join them. Men will NOT be rewarded, nor have access to our bodies.”

The 4B movement, which reportedly originated in 2019, stands for four Korean words beginning with “bi” or “no” in English: bihon means no heterosexual marriage; bichulsan, no childbirth; biyeonae, no dating; and bisekseu, no heterosexual sexual relationships. Supporters of the women-led movement refuse to date, marry, have sex or have children with men – effectively boycotting a system they feel perpetuates gender inequity.

Members of the 4B movement view marriage as an existential threat to women, and their concerns are well-founded. Much like in the US, South Korean women are also subjected to a gender pay gap. While American women typically earn 82 cents for every dollar earned by men, South Korean women earn 31 percent less than men – the highest gender pay gap in democratic countries. A 2018 report revealed that in the past nine years, at least 824 women had been killed and 602 more put at risk of death due to intimate partner violence (IPV). A 2021 study further found that one in three Korean women have experienced domestic violence, with intimate partners responsible for 46 percent of these cases.

In response, women within the 4B movement have chosen to disengage from traditional relationships altogether, asserting that practicing “bihon” is the only path to autonomy. “Practicing bihon means you’re eliminating the risks that come from heterosexual marriage or dating,” Busan native Yeowon explained to The Cut.

It’s unclear how widespread the 4B movement is given its largely anonymous and offline nature, and it’s origins are just as nebulous. However, scholars credit its rise with the growing education gap between men and women in South Korea. Similar to the gender education gap in the US, in which women make up 59.5 percent of all college students, Korean women surpassed men in college enrollment rates as of 2013. Today, nearly three-fourths of Korean women pursue higher education, compared with less than two-thirds of men.

This shift fueled growing tension between men and women, with disgruntled groups of men coining the term “kimchinyeo,” or “kimchee women,” to stereotype college-educated women as “selfish, vain, and exploitative of their partners,” feminist scholar Euisol Jeong explained in her research on “troll feminism.”

These cultural attitudes echo trends in the US, where men are grappling with shifting gender roles. Feeling the pressure of fewer blue-collar jobs and diminishing educational advantages, many men are drawn to vote for conservative candidates like Trump, who promise a return to traditional values that, for some, prioritize men’s interests at the expense of women’s autonomy.

“Masculinity is in flux,” anthropologist Treena Orchard recently told The Independent in an interview about the gender political gap. “Men are feeling constrained, and it’s like they might feel like they have fewer options in terms of how to do manhood, how to think about their place in the world, and they feel devalued.”

For many women in South Korea, the 4B movement isn’t merely symbolic – it’s a social stance aimed at reclaiming control over their lives, bodies, and futures in response to a system they feel is becoming increasingly hostile.

In the wake of the election – which has seen women’s rights, such as reproductive autonomy, under threat – bringing the 4B movement to the US could be a radical response. However, the surge of American interest in the 4B movement underscores a shared frustration over what many see as a rollback of women’s rights and freedoms, especially as conservative values gain ground among male voters.

With the movement gaining momentum online, one question looms: Will American women rally around it, or perhaps create their own version, as a form of protest against Trump’s second presidential term in the White House?

Two dead and 12 missing after fishing boat sinks off South Korea

A fishing boat capsized and sank off the coast of South Korea’s Jeju Island on Friday, leaving at least two people dead and a dozen missing.

The boat, carrying 27 crew members, was on a mackerel fishing trip when it sank 24km northwest of Jeju, coast guard official Kim Han-na said.

Nearby fishing vessels rescued 15 crew members but two were confirmed dead after being brought ashore, she said.

The 13 survivors did not suffer serious injuries.

The crew members included 16 South Koreans and 11 foreigners.

The coast guard received a distress call at around 4.33am local time reporting that the vessel was sinking off Jeju’s Biyang coast.

A rescue operation, involving some 27 vessels and nine aircraft, was underway to locate and get back the missing crew members.

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol urged state agencies to mobilise all resources for the search and rescue operation.

The rescued crew members said the boat unexpectedly capsized and sank as it was transferring its catch to another vessel.

Additional reporting by agencies.

China’s Mars rover finds evidence of ancient sea on red planet

China’s Zhurong Mars rover has found evidence of an ancient coastline on the red planet.

The coastline in the southern Utopia region, detailed in the journal Scientific Reports, was likely left by a sea that briefly existed in the planet’s early history over 3.5 billion years ago.

The Zhurong rover, which landed on Mars in May 2021, has been analysing deposits in Vastitas Borealis, a low plain in the planet’s northern hemisphere.

This region in the planet’s northern lowlands has long been hypothesised to have contained an ocean once.

The fine grains of minerals like hydrated silica found here are more consistent with a coastline origin than from volcanic activity.

Researchers analysed data from the Zhurong rover and the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter launched in 2005 to estimate surface ages and compositions of minerals found in the southern Utopia Planitia.

The analysis shows distinct geological features like troughs and sediment channels in this part of the planet, consistent with an ancient nearshore zone.

The analysis led researchers to suspect the deposits were formed by a possible flooding event about 3.68 billion years ago. The coastline may have been formed by a short-lived ocean with the sea surface likely freezing and disappearing around 3.42 billion years ago.

“We conducted a comprehensive geomorphological analysis of the landing area using remote sensing data, supplemented by in situ observations, and unveiled features consistent with the existence of a nearshore zone in southern Utopia,” the researchers say.

The scientists caution that these measurements from the Zhurong rover do not provide direct evidence for the existence of an ancient ocean on Mars.

But the analysis heightens the possibility that the southern Utopia Planitia region may have hosted a significant body of water, adding to our understanding of Mars’ evolution.

The researchers hope the findings can help inform decisions about potential landing sites for future missions to investigate the likely existence of ancient water reservoirs on Mars and their role in shaping the planet’s geology.

Man, 25, becomes first person jailed in Australia for Nazi salute

A self-described Nazi became the first person in Australia to be sentenced to prison for performing an outlawed salute when he was ordered by a magistrate on Friday to spend one month behind bars.

Jacob Hersant, 25, is also the first person in Victoria state to be convicted of performing the Nazi salute. The gesture has been outlawed nationwide since he committed the offense.

He was convicted in the Melbourne Magistrates Court last month of performing the salute before news cameras outside the Victoria County Court on 27 October 2023. Hersant had just avoided a prison sentence on a conviction for causing violent disorder. Performing a Nazi salute had been outlawed by the state parliament days earlier.

Magistrate Brett Sonnet allowed Hersant to remain free on bail after he was convicted until Friday, when he was sentenced to one month in prison.

He faced a potential maximum sentence of 12 months in prison plus a 24,000 Australian dollar ($16,025) fine.

Hersant’s lawyer, Tim Smartt, said the sentence would be appealed and he would apply for bail in a higher court pending an appeal hearing.

Mr Smartt said Hersant should not be jailed for a non-violent act.

“It’s not justified sending a 25-year-old to prison. That is wrong,” Mr Smartt told the magistrate.

Sonnet said a prison sentence was appropriate.

“If there was physical violence, then I would have imposed a sentence close to the maximum penalty,” Sonnet said. “The accused sought to promote Nazi ideology in the public arena and the court is satisfied he took advantage of the media to disseminate extreme political views.”

Hersant was a member of the National Socialist Network, an organization that promoted white supremacy, deportation of immigrants and far-right actors, Sonnet said.

While performing the salute last year, he praised Nazi leader Adolf Hitler and said, “Australia for the white man.”

Mr Sonnet said his words were “clearly racist and seek to promote white supremacy in Australia”.

“Put bluntly, the white man is not superior to any other race of people,” Mr Sonnet said.

Hersant’s lawyers had argued that his comments and salute were protected by an implied constitutional freedom of political communication.

On his way into court on Friday, Hersant maintained he had a right to express his political views.

“We’re going to argue that the law is constitutionally invalid and it’s emotional and it’s anti-white,” Hersant told reporters. “It’s my political view and I think it’s a good fight for us to have an argument in court saying these laws are invalid.”

Could South Korea send troops to fight for Ukraine?

The alleged deployment of North Korean soldiers to aid Russia’s war effort in Ukraine has prompted South Korea to warn that it could send military monitors as well as weapons to Kyiv.

South Korean foreign minister Cho Tae Yul said earlier this week that all options were on the table, but experts noted that Seoul was more likely to send a variety of military support short of soldiers.

The alleged presence of around 12,000 North Korean troops in Russia, reportedly under a defence treaty that Russian president Vladimir Putin signed with Korean leader Kim Jong Un earlier this year, has set off alarm bells on the Korean peninsula.

South Korea is concerned about thousands of North Korean troops gaining fighting experience in a war theatre, and potentially using the skills they acquire against South Korea on their return.

Kyiv has said that its forces have already clashed with the North Koreans in Kursk, a border region where the Russians have been fighting off a Ukrainian incursion since August.

North Korea’s presence in Europe, if confirmed, would mark the isolated nation’s first participation in a major conflict since the end of the 1950-53 Korean war.

In response, South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol said on Thursday that Seoul would not rule out sending weapons to Ukraine.

Seoul could also provide intelligence, military training and weapons, Kateryna Stepanenko, the deputy team lead at the Institute for the Study of War, told The Independent.

“Military support from South Korea could range from logistics support such as communications gear, aviation parts, tents, food, trucks, anything mechanical, to lethal forms ranging from small arms, anti-tank weapons, all the way to long-range missiles,” said Seth Krummrich, a retired US army colonel and the vice-president of client risk management at Global Guardian.

If Seoul elected to provide military support to Ukraine at this stage, it would likely be proportional to Pyongyang’s involvement, the analyst told The Independent.

He noted that while South Korea’s involvement would anger Mr Putin, it would not escalate the war, since nothing would change tactically.

South Korea cannot send advanced modern weapons to Ukraine, but it can provide decommissioned MIM-23 surface-to-air missiles, 105mm howitzers, and artillery ammunition, along with machine and assault guns, said Pavlo Narozhnyi, a military expert and the founder of Ukrainian charity organisation Reactive Post. It could also send non-military equipment such as trucks.

Another way that one of the world’s largest economies could help is by financing weapons production in Ukraine, following in the footsteps of Denmark, which paid for the production of the Bohdana howitzers, Mr Narozhnyi said.

This would be unlikely to trigger Putin’s red lines, as South Korea’s involvement would be similar to Ukraine receiving aid from other countries, Mr Krummrich said.

The war in Ukraine, the bloodiest conflict in Europe since the Second World War, is at a critical juncture as it enters its third winter. There are signs of military fatigue on both sides. While Kyiv has stepped up conscription to hold off the Russians, Moscow is taking aid from its ally, North Korea.

“Russia generates and loses about 30,000 soldiers per month. Its current system for generating forces is becoming increasingly delinquent, and it is unlikely to keep functioning at the current rate over the next 12-18 months,” said Ms Stepanenko.

Throwing thousands of North Korean soldiers into the war would give Moscow breathing room to build more forces, she added.

A pipeline of 15,000 North Korean volunteers a month would wipe out half of Russia’s monthly losses, she told The Independent.

Mr Krummrich warned that the world is watching a disaster unfold, and that the North Koreans could potentially desert and flee the conflict.

“It is important to note that North Korean troops have never worked alongside Russian forces before. They are being pushed to the front lines with little to no training, operating unfamiliar systems under uncharted territory,” he said, adding that the experiment could end badly for Pyongyang and Moscow.

India forced to lift ban on Salman Rushdie’s Satanic Verses

India’s ban on the import of author Salman Rushdie’s The Satanic Verses has been overturned by the Delhi High Court due to a remarkable situation – the original notification cannot be found.

The 1988 magic realism novel, which explores the age-old subjects of good and evil and features religious figures including Archangel Gabriel and Prophet Muhammad, ran into controversy with Muslim readers, who dubbed it blasphemous.

The book ended up being banned in various countries, including India, South Africa and Pakistan.

Excerpts from the book along with an interview of Rushdie ran in an Indian magazine in September 1988, which led to Indian politicians Syed Shahabuddin and Khurshid Alam Khan demanding a ban.

On 5 October 1988, the Indian government banned the import of The Satanic Verses via a customs order by the Ministry of Finance.

A fatwa (ruling) was issued against Rushdie and his publishers in February 1989 by the then Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Violent demonstrations followed, and the book’s Japanese translator, Hitoshi Igarashi, was stabbed to death. Rushdie was forced to spend the best part of a decade hiding in London.

It has now come to light that the notification issued by the customs authorities in 1988 banning the import of the book cannot be found, leading to the court to dispose of a petition that asked for the notification to be produced in court.

A writ petition against the Central Board of Indirect Taxes & Customs (CBIC) was filed by petitioner Sandipan Khan in 2019, that challenged the constitutional validity of the notification that banned the import under the Customs Act, 1962.

Mr Khan was seeking permission to import the book directly from the publisher or alternate channels.

In his plea, Mr Khan requested that the court declare to all state governments and federal territories that the ban on the book’s import was ultra víres, or “beyond the powers” of the Indian constitution.

Mr Khan also informed the court that he had filed an application under India’s Right to Information Act in 2017, requesting a copy of the notification and received a response that said the relevant file carrying the notification was untraceable, and therefore could not be produced.

Mr Khan’s attorney also said in court that the notification was not available on any website, and efforts to trace it had not borne any fruits.

The petition was adjourned several times, and the CBIC requested the court several times for more time to locate the notification.

In November 2022, the court said that Mr Khan “seeks a final opportunity to make efforts to trace the said file” and that the respondent needed to file an affidavit on what procedure needed to be adopted if and when statutory notifications are lost or misplaced.

Finally, after several court dates, in an order dated 5 November, the Delhi court disposed of Mr Khan’s petition, stating: “In the light of the aforesaid circumstances, we have no other option except to presume that no such notification exists, and therefore, we cannot examine the validity thereof and dispose of the writ petition as infructuous.”

Based on this order, the court stated that since the notification is now presumed to not exist, Mr Khan is “entitled to take all actions in respect of the said book as available in law”.