Smog blankets Delhi as severe air pollution disrupts life and travel

Delhi was engulfed by a thick blanket of hazardous smog on Friday, causing alarm over disruption to air travel and damage to public health.

The Indian capital city’s air quality degraded to the extent that visibility was reduced to almost zero in some areas, resulting in train and flight delays.

The live pollution rankings published by Swiss air quality monitor IQAir listed Delhi ranked as the third most polluted capital on Friday.

Although no flight cancellations were reported, a Delhi airport spokesperson warned that planes without special equipment for low-visibility landings could face difficulties.

Airlines IndiGo and SpiceJet also warned of potential delays due to the worsening weather conditions.

By 10.14am, the aviation tracking website FlightRadar24 reported an average delay of eight minutes for 20 flights. Train services within Delhi were also affected, with delays reported on multiple routes.

The air quality index in New Delhi reached 351 on Friday, putting it well outside the “good” range. AQI is a measure of five major air pollutants and is considered “good” when under 50.

AQI above 400 is considered “severe”, meaning the smog should be considered harmful to even healthy individuals and outdoor activity should be avoided where possible.

The central government’s Sameer App confirmed the “very poor” AQI rating, a status that has plagued the city since the onset of winter. The wider National Capital Region saw similarly poor readings, with AQI levels measuring between 214 and 291.

Following a brief respite due to rainfall on 1 January, air quality in the city deteriorated rapidly, reverting to the “poor” category by Thursday.

The year just gone was marked by particularly severe air pollution in Delhi, with 17 days classified as having a “severe” AQI of over 400, the most since 2022.

Alongside toxic air, Delhi saw dense fog on Friday morning that greatly reduced visibility in many areas. The India Meteorological Department forecast the fog, along with a cold wave, to continue through the weekend, with temperatures ranging between 8.5C and 20C.

The weather department said light to moderate rainfall was expected on 6 January, offering some hope for at least temporary improvement in air quality and visibility.

Given the hazardous air quality, health experts urged Delhi’s residents to limit outdoor activities, particularly in the early mornings and evenings when pollution levels would likely peak.

They also recommended using masks outdoors, air purifiers indoors, and avoiding poorly ventilated spaces to mitigate health risks, especially for those with respiratory conditions.

Can India become the world’s third superpower?

In an exclusive interview with The Independent in September, Tony Blair made a bold claim – that India will rise to become a global superpower by 2050. “By the middle of this century, you’re going to have three superpowers – America, China, and you’re going to have India. All other countries are going to be small in comparison,” the former prime minister said.

India’s own prime minister, Narendra Modi, has set out similar aspirations, saying India will achieve “developed” status by 2047. He also vowed to make his country “the third largest economic superpower” by the end of his third term, though he made that pledge before a disappointing set of election results that saw him lose his outright majority in June 2024.

Most projections for India’s future strength are based on two simple facts – that it has now surpassed China to become the most populous country in the world, and its $3 trillion economy, already the fifth-largest, is growing at a faster rate than any other major nation.

Beyond simple economics, India’s importance has also risen geopolitically; courted by the US as a counterweight to China in the Asia-Pacific yet able to maintain strong ties to Russia at the same time, it has carved out a niche that could prove a model for other Global South nations. But does diplomatic independence equate to superpower status – or is it the ability to project power abroad that defines American and Chinese dominance?

India surpassed the UK as the world’s fifth-largest economy in 2023, and analysts at Morgan Stanley agree with Modi in predicting it will overtake Japan and Germany to reach third position by 2027.

Yet in a test to Modi’s ambitious plans, India’s economy is experiencing its slowest growth in the last two years, dampening the economic outlook for the full financial year. GDP grew at just 5.4 per cent in the July-September quarter, well below the Reserve Bank of India’s forecast of 7 per cent. Economists say there are signs that the expansion of the Indian economy is losing momentum.

These high GDP growth figures also appear inconsistent with other economic indicators such as employment rates, private consumption and export performance. Consumer expenditure accounts for about 60 per cent of India’s GDP but has been badly affected by a slowdown in urban spending due to food inflation and sluggish real wage growth.

India’s goods exports, typically the main driver of a country’s economic growth, are also flatlining. In the 12 months leading up to August 2024, India’s total goods trade was valued at $1.1 trillion – the same level as it was two years ago.

And then there is the question of whether GDP growth really translates to improved outcomes for the population as a whole. It will be hard for India to claim superpower status for as long as it remains classified as a lower-middle-income country, a designation it has held since 2007, based on its per capita income of around $2,400 (£1,885). The World Bank estimates that it would take another 75 years for India’s average to reach even a quarter of the US.

In its 2024 report World Inequality Lab found that the current golden age of Indian billionaires has led to a dramatic surge in income inequality, placing India among the most unequal countries globally, surpassing the US, Brazil, and South Africa.

According to the economists behind the study, including renowned French economist Thomas Piketty, the income gap between India’s rich and poor has grown so vast that, by some metrics, income distribution in India was more equitable during British colonial rule than it is today.

Piketty, who was in Delhi for a conference in December, said India “should be active in taxing the rich” in order to distribute wealth better. But there are no signs that the eradication of economic inequality is a policy objective for Modi, who has been accused of maintaining close ties with the country’s billionaires and favouring the biggest business magnates with lucrative infrastructure projects, an allegation denied by the ruling BJP.

Former diplomat Shyam Saran, at a recent Chatham House discussion, argued that India undoubtedly has great potential based on its population, economic scale, and significant pool of scientific and technical talent.

“As far as India’s macro impact over the global landscape is concerned, it is certainly expanding, but in terms of the domestic metrics of development, I think those are changing very slowly. So, on the one hand, India is, in terms of GDP, today the fifth largest economy. But its ranking in the Human Development Index is abysmal, at 122 out of 191 countries, and progress has been very slow.” He says these contradictions have to be taken into account when looking at the possibility of India being the next superpower.

China’s economy, once a growth powerhouse, has struggled to regain its pre-pandemic momentum following three years of strict lockdowns. In the last quarter, China’s economy grew at 4.7 per cent, just below its government’s target of 5 per cent, reflecting broader challenges in sustaining its pre-pandemic pace.

Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for the Asia-Pacific at investment bank Natixis in Hong Kong, tells The Independent that India’s economy needs to grow around 6 per cent each year to become as large as China by 2050 while China’s growth rate will be decelerating up to 1 per cent from 2035 onwards.

“India will [then] be the size of China by 2050. But is this feasible?” she asks, highlighting the “slightly more worrisome” fall in Indian growth in the third quarter. “The forecast of 7 per cent growth for 2024 already seems quite impossible for India,” she adds.

Garcia-Herrero says it is now clear that India will outpace China in terms of growth for many years to come.

“However, the challenges of becoming a superpower are significant. Technology and infrastructure are the main areas, but it’s broader than just that – it involves building a mature society with well-functioning institutions that are not overly influenced by the political party in power.”

Perhaps the clearest indicator of the inconsistency in India’s growth story is the deepening jobs crisis for educated young people, seen as one of the reasons many voters turned away from the BJP in the last election.

The share of educated youths among all unemployed people increased from 54.2 per cent in 2000 to 65.7 per cent in 2022 according to the latest figures by the International Labour Organization. It points to a situation where India, a country with an average age of just 29 years, is failing to utilise what is often described as its demographic dividend.

And there has been no significant rise in real wages in India since 2014, according to numbers computed by noted developmental economist Jean Dreze.

It’s not just the economy where India sees China as its closest competitor. Beijing has emerged as one of the major challenges for India under Modi, with security concerns outweighing economic considerations with its biggest trade partner.

Brutal hand-to-hand combat and high-altitude skirmishes between the armies of the two countries in their shared Himalayan border region since 2020 have led to deaths and injuries on both sides. The two nuclear powers have since mobilised tens of thousands of troops, backed by artillery, tanks, and fighter jets, along their de facto border.

A significant breakthrough came after almost three years of stalemate in October when Beijing and Delhi announced they had reached a deal to disengage from the friction points in the Himalayan border, suggesting a thaw in relations. Two days later, Modi and Xi Jinping were pictured shaking hands and exchanging smiles following their first bilateral meeting in five years. Yet the latest reports suggest there has still been no withdrawal of troops in the region by either side.

India’s refusal to back down in the years-long standoff reflects a general growth in confidence, one that has also seen New Delhi emboldened to tackle individuals who it sees as its enemies – even if they are based abroad. This approach was exemplified when defence minister Rajnath Singh, asked about extrajudicial killings in Pakistan that India had previously denied involvement in, finally declared: “We will go to Pakistan and kill” those who threaten India’s peace.

The Indian government is also accused of orchestrating targeted killings of those involved in a Sikh separatist movement abroad, in both the US and Canada. While the government has denied these allegations, it has vowed to defeat the pro-Khalistan movement internationally, having effectively quashed it at home.

“India has emerged more confident and more present under Modi’s leadership on the global stage, as Delhi has led itself with confidence and assertiveness that I think has really stood out and that has led to a number of favourable outcomes for India’s interests”, says Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Centre’s South Asia Institute.

“And that entails strengthened relations with the US as well as partnership with a number of regions and countries on unprecedented levels,” he adds.

In 2023, India became the chair of the G20 summit and hosted the biggest diplomatic event in the country in years. Modi presented India as the “Vishwaguru” or global teacher, and the government was accused of making a meal out of what was merely a rotating G20 presidency.

“India’s star shines a bit brighter on the global stage due to its relatively successful leadership of the G20. India’s ability to get leaders to agree on a statement that included a reference to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, despite the issue being very divisive globally, was a notable achievement,” says Rick Rossow, director of US-India policy studies at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

“However, these achievements may not translate into tangible benefits like increased investment or development aid for India. The focus on global leadership under Modi’s tenure, while notable, is perceived by some as flashy rather than substantive.”

“So, at the end of the day, leadership in the G20 makes it feel like India is taking its role as a major power, but when you think about what other countries actually want from a major power, India still doesn’t have a lot of capacity to deliver, whether it’s aid, outbound investment, trade, that kind of thing.”

To solidify India’s status as a net security provider, Rossow says India needs to continue building out its power projection capabilities, accelerate the production of its second domestic carrier, and get more fourth-generation, maybe even fifth-generation fighter aircraft inducted into the air force and navy.

“I think there’s still a lot more that India can do and will do as the country continues to grow economically and in population,” says Rossow.

New Syrian regime’s school curriculum changes spark backlash

Syria’s new regime has announced sweeping changes to the national school curriculum, triggering concerns about “Islamisation”.

Critics fear the changes, including an increased focus on Islam and the removal of content related to the ousted Bashar al-Assad regime, will be divisive and erode the country’s diverse historical and cultural identity.

The changes, first posted on the Ministry of Education’s Facebook page, include replacing the phrase “defending the nation” with “defending Allah” and removing references to pre-Islamic gods.

The curriculum overhaul also removes the big bang theory and evolution from science books, and edits history and philosophy subjects to exclude topics like Chinese philosophical thought and Ottoman rule, which is now being described as “brutal” in the context of Syria’s past.

Another controversial shift is the elimination of the subject of national education, which promoted the Baath Party’s ideology under Mr Assad.

It will be replaced by Islamic or Christian religious education.

The changes, which affect children aged six to 18, are aimed at replacing content seen as glorifying the Assad regime, but the introduction of more religious teaching has led to strong reactions, particularly on social media.

“The current government is a caretaker government that does not have the right to make these amendments,” one user posted on the Ministry of Education’s Facebook page, CNN reported.

Nazir al-Qadri, the new education minister, downplayed the significance of the changes in a statement to the Syrian news agency Sana, claiming the curriculum will stay largely unchanged until expert committees are set up to review the educational material.

He said the revisions are aimed at correcting what he described as “inaccuracies” in the Islamic education curriculum which previously misinterpreted Quranic verses.

In spite of the minister’s assurance, activists, many of whom have returned to Syria after years in exile, are concerned about the lack of consultation with the broader society before implementing such changes. The transitional government’s claim that they are striving for inclusivity appears undermined by these unilateral decisions.

“After reviewing the amendments, it’s clear that aside from removing signs of the criminal Assad regime, the rest of the changes have a distinct religious tone,” Syrian journalist Hussam Hammoud said.

The new Syrian regime, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a rebranded Al Qaeda and Isis affiliate, has sought to distance itself from its extremist roots, promising a future of tolerance and coexistence for all religious and ethnic groups.

The curriculum changes have revived fears that HTS is pushing an “Islamist agenda” and sidelining the country’s pluralistic, secular history.

The modifications have sparked calls for protests before the start of the new school term on Sunday, with activists and citizens planning demonstrations against any further changes to the education system or other state institutions without comprehensive public participation.

Mysterious giant metallic ring falls in Kenya

A large metallic ring suspected to be debris from space crashed in southern Kenya’s Mukuku village on Monday, the country’s space agency said.

Villagers discovered the “red and hot” ring suspected to be rocket parts at about 3pm local time on 30 December, the Kenyan Space Agency said, adding that it “secured the area and retrieved the debris“.

“The agency wishes to clarify that the object, a metallic ring measuring 2.5 metres in diameter and weighing about 500kg, is a fragment of a space object,” the agency said in a statement.

“Preliminary assessments indicate that the fallen object is a separation ring from a launch vehicle.”

Rocket debris is designed to burn up during re-entry into the earth’s atmosphere or to fall over unoccupied areas such as the oceans.

“There are many pieces of debris in space and one cannot be 100 per cent certain which will fall where,” the agency said. “However, most debris burns up in the atmosphere, and incidents like this are extremely rare.”

“KSA officials rushed to the scene and, working alongside a multi-agency team and local authorities, secured the area and retrieved the debris.

Space junk is a growing problem, and while this may be an isolated case, the threat is real. Some pieces of space junk are as large as cars or even buses, and if they were to fall, they could pose significant risks to property and human life.

Everyone needs to be aware of this and report anything suspicious to the authorities.”

Space observer Jonathan McDowell, who tracks rocket movements, said the Kenyan agency could be “mistaken” about the source of the debris.

He emphasised that it could not have come from a space shuttle’s rocket booster. “Totally impossible. The SRBs never reached orbit and have not been ‘in the sky’ since 2011,” the researcher from the Harvard Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics said on social media.

“I’m not convinced it’s not from an airplane. Don’t see obvious evidence of reentry heating,” the astrophysicist told Inside Outer Space.

Nerve-stimulation therapy can get people out of severe depression

Nerve-stimulation therapy can greatly improve symptoms of severe, treatment-resistant depression, a new clinical trial shows.

The results of the trial, published last month in a pair of studies in the journal Brain Stimulation, show that stimulating the vagus nerve can alleviate depressive symptoms, improve life quality, and enhance the patient’s ability to complete everyday tasks after only a year.

The trial involved nearly 500 people at 84 sites across the US who all suffered from severe depression that could not be treated effectively with medication or other approaches.

Around 75 per cent of the patients were so ill they were unable to work, researchers from the Washington University School of Medicine in St Louis said.

The participants were all implanted with a device to stimulate their left vagus nerve, a major conduit between the brain and the internal organs, but only half the devices were turned on.

This type of vagus nerve stimulation device was approved for treatment-resistant depression nearly two decades ago by the US Food and Drug Administration, but did not become widely available.

It is a pacemaker-like device implanted under the skin in the chest with a wire connected to the left vagus nerve in the neck.

The device stimulates the nerve, which in turn sends electrical pulses to areas of the brain associated with mood regulation.

In the 12-month randomised control study, the device was implanted in 493 people but activated for only 249. Researchers tracked the responses of the participants and found that the device provided “life-changing” benefits to many of them.

“Despite that super-high level of sustained illness, we still see statistically significant, measurable improvements in depressive symptoms, quality of life and functional outcomes,” study co-author Charles Conway said.

Several participants went from being unable to get out of bed to being productive and interacting with loved ones, researchers said.

The trial, part of which is still underway, was intended to evaluate the effectiveness of nerve-stimulation therapy for severe depression, both alone and as part of bipolar disorder.

The cost of the device and the surgery to implant it, though, could make the therapy unaffordable as most private insurance plans do not cover it.

The researchers said they were hopeful the new findings could convince the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services to cover the device and the implantation surgery and make the therapy available to many more people.

“You have a population of people that has been failed by a ridiculously high number of treatments, including aggressive treatments such as electroconvulsive therapy. And they’re not just saying, ‘Yeah, I feel a little better.’ They’re saying they are seeing meaningful improvements in their ability to function and live their lives,” Dr Conway noted. “And the nice thing about vagus nerve stimulation, we know from other studies, is that when the patient responds, the effects usually stick.”

China hits 28 US defence firms with export ban over Taiwan arms sales

China banned the export of dual-use products to over two dozen US defence contractors, targeting top players like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, as it objected to Washington’s latest arms sales to Taiwan.

Beijing imposed the ban on 28 US defence contractors, placing 10 of them on an unreliable entities list over weapons sales to Taiwan, the commerce ministry said on Thursday.

The decision, “based on China’s export control law and regulation on export control of dual-use items”, was taken to “safeguard national security and interests and fulfil international obligations including non-proliferation,” the ministry said.

The targeted firms also included General Dynamics and Boeing.

The 10 “unreliable entities” were engaged in the American weapons sales to Taiwan “despite strong opposition” from Beijing.

“The so-called military technology cooperation seriously undermines China’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity, violates the One China principle and the provisions of the three joint communiques between China and the US, and significantly threatens peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait,” a ministry spokesperson said.

China considers Taiwan a part of its territory and does not rule out the use of force to “reunite” the island.

The export ban mimics last month’s sanctions on defence and aerospace entities involved in a previous sale of weapons to Taiwan. The sanctions targeted Insitu, Hudson Technologies, Saronic Technologies, Raytheon Canada, Raytheon Australia, Aerkomm, and Oceaneering International Inc.

The firms under the latest ban will be barred from import and export activities in China and from making new investments. Their officials cannot enter the country and their work permits or residency will be revoked.

It was not immediately clear how many individuals would be impacted by the decision.

Taiwan last month received a batch of 38 advanced Abrams battle tanks from the US in a significant boost to the island’s land defence capabilities. Another 42 tanks, considered the heaviest in the world, are due to be delivered this year, and 28 the year after.

The island has been upgrading its defence capabilities – acquiring F-16 fighter jets, missiles, submarines and artillery systems from the US – in the face of increasing military drills by China.

Waste from world’s deadliest industrial disaster moved after 40 years

A convoy of trucks took away 337 metric tonnes of hazardous waste from the site of the Bhopal gas tragedy, 40 years after what is regarded as the world’s worst industrial disaster.

The trucks left the abandoned Union Carbide plant in the capital of India’s Madhya Pradesh state on Wednesday night despite protests by workers at the disposal plant the waste was destined for.

A gas leak from the pesticide plant on the night of 2 December 1984 wound up killing over 20,000 people – activists working in the affected community put the toll much higher – and poisoning half a million.

The toxic waste was transported under heavy security for disposal at a plant in Pithampur, 143 miles away, Bhopal gas tragedy relief and rehabilitation department director Swatantra Kumar Singh said.

“The 12 container trucks carrying the waste set off on a non-stop journey around 9pm,” he said. “A green corridor was created for the nearly seven-hour journey of the vehicles to the Pithampur industrial area in Dhar district.”

Nearly 100 workers toiled over four days to load the trucks. The workers “underwent health check-ups and were given rest every 30 minutes”, Mr Singh said.

“The 337 metric tonnes of waste will undergo scientific disposal within three to nine months,” he added.

Five district administrations were put on alert and some 700 security personnel were deployed to move the convoy, The Times of India reported.

The long-pending disposal of the toxic waste began after the state High Court last month set a four-week deadline to clear it away.

“Are you waiting for another tragedy?” the court asked while rebuking authorities for not cleaning up the Union Carbide plant site.

A trial run to dispose of the waste had seen 10 metric tonnes transported away in 2015.

The impending arrival of the toxic waste in Pithampur, a small town near Dhar city, had sparked concerns and protests from the local population.

Many workers at the Pithampur industrial area and their relatives feared for their health and safety, and some had even requested leave. They also held a protest march on Sunday.

Rachna Dhingra, a campaigner for survivors of the gas tragedy, said the solid waste would be buried in a landfill after incineration, likely contaminating local water sources. “Why is the polluter, Union Carbide and Dow Chemical, not being compelled to clean up its toxic waste in Bhopal?” she asked.

The Union Carbide factory was built in 1969 and for years seen as a symbol of India’s industrialisation, generating thousands of jobs for the poor and, at the same time, manufacturing cheap pesticides for millions of farmers.

A settlement with the Indian government, signed in 1989 and overseen by the Supreme Court, saw Union Carbide pay out a total of £367m in compensation.

Dow Chemical, the American multinational which now owns Union Carbide, has been under pressure from campaigners to pay additional compensation to the survivors of the gas leak disaster.

Jeju Air and Muan airport raided over fatal South Korea plane crash

South Korean police raided Jeju Air and the operator of the Muan airport as they ramped up their investigation into Sunday’s catastrophic plane crash that claimed 179 lives, marking the worst aviation disaster in the country’s recent history.

A Jeju Air Boeing 737-800 crashlanded after failing to deploy its landing gear, skidded off the runway at the Muan airport and rammed into a concrete embankment.

The plane burst into flames, killing all but two of its 181 passengers and crew. The survivors, crew members seated at the rear, suffered injuries but were rescued.

Investigators searched the offices of the airport operator and the transport ministry’s aviation authority in the southwestern county of Muan as the well as office of Jeju Air in Seoul, the South Jeolla provincial police said in a statement.

They planned to seize documents and materials related to the operation and maintenance of the aircraft as well as the operation of airport facilities, a police official told Reuters.

Jeju Air was cooperating with police, a director at the airline, Song Kyeong Hoon, said. The airport operator was yet to issue a comment.

Authorities also banned the chief executive of Jeju Air from leaving South Korea. “The investigation team imposed a travel ban on two individuals, including Jeju Air CEO Kim E Bae,” police said.

In the wake of the crash, aviation safety experts expressed concerns about the embankment the plane rammed into, questioning the design of the structure designed to support navigation equipment.

“This rigid structure proved catastrophic when the skidding aircraft made impact,” Najmedin Meshkati, engineering professor at the University of Southern California, said.

Such installations should use lighter materials such as metal towers to minimise damage during collisions, he said.

Investigators were also examining whether the embankment should have been constructed from lighter materials to reduce its potential danger.

The incident was also under investigation by the US National Transportation Safety Board, Federal Aviation Administration, and Boeing, in collaboration with South Korean authorities.

Preliminary analysis indicated the aircraft encountered multiple issues, including a bird strike and an engine problem, before the crash.

A video of the crash showed the aircraft belly-landing at speed and bursting into flames after hitting the concrete wall. The pilot had declared an emergency after warning of a bird strike but reportedly attempted a second landing without success.

Black boxes found in the wreckage were being analysed. The conversion of data from the cockpit voice recorder to audio files, which could provide critical information about the final minutes of the flight, was completed on Thursday, deputy transport minister for civil aviation Joo Jong Wan said.

Transport ministry officials said the audio files might not be publicly released due to the sensitivity of the investigation.

Acting president Choi Sang Mok, meanwhile, ordered immediate inspections of all Boeing 737-800 aircraft in South Korea. “Given the public concern, thorough reviews of operation, maintenance, and training procedures must be prioritised,” Mr Choi said during a disaster management meeting.

The tragedy sparked a week of national mourning. Save for two Thai citizens, the victims of the crash were all South Koreans, many of them returning home from holidays in Bangkok.

Bereaved relatives held a memorial service at the site of the crash on New Year’s Day, laying white flowers and offering traditional rice cake soup in tribute to their loved ones.