Swedish eco-resort ‘abandoned with 158 barrels of human faeces’

A Danish couple who founded a popular eco-resort in the Swedish woods are accused of abandoning the site and leaving behind more than 150 barrels behind filled with human waste.

Flemming Hansen and Mette Helbæk established Stedsans in the south of Sweden, a site that boasted more than a dozen wood cabins and an organic restaurant, reportedly attracting the wealthy and influencers.

But a joint investigation in Swedish media accuses the pair of vanishing without informing staff or organising care for their remaining animals several months ago.

The pair, reportedly now in Guatemala, have hit back and claimed there has been a “witch hunt” after an investigation from newspapers Dagens Nyheter and Politiken. The couple claim they have received death threats and were called “horrific things” since the article was published.

“It feels like a witch hunt. I’m extremely scared and don’t know what to do. I have so much more to share and explain, but right now I’m just in shock,” they posted on social media.

In a separate post, they acknowledged they had made some mistakes but defended their handling of their animals and sewerage, adding: “We have not left any animals to die – We had a good system to deal with fecal resources”.

“We are super sorry for the loss and inconvenience our bankruptcy has caused.

“We have disappointed many. Even angered some. And for that we are deeply, truly sorry. But we can say from the bottom of our hearts that we have done all we could,” they wrote in a farewell post on their blog. “Right from the beginning Stedsans never really had a chance.”

A former staffer named Malin told local media the couple’s car had gone and their house burned down.

She said she had taken in surviving chickens and ducks from the resort, but that many had died before that.

Another former staffer, Lars Delling, said that behind the facade of wooden eco-friendly cabinets melding with the forest was a darker side to the lodge, with sewerage and grey water pumped straight into the forest.

He showed the newspaper the sewerage system used at the resort: “Voila. Over 150 barrels filled with human s***”, he said.

The investigation said Stedsans was declared bankrupt in March with the couple allegedly leaving behind debts of about 6 million kroner (£500,000).

“From now on, what happens to assets and debts is out of our hands. All the hand-selected items we have gathered over the years to give Stedsans soul, the buildings we drew and had made in local timber, are no longer ours,” the couple wrote in a blog post in January.

As of last week, the couple were preparing to launch their new venture: a hotel called Hotel San Pedro La Laguna in Guatemala, which they said would open in May.

“We are shaken, but still standing. Still here to contribute to a softer world, still here to cook delicious food, still trusting our work is not in vain although it has been brutally hard lately to try and forge a new path,” they wrote on Instagram.

Has the ‘Trump slump’ done British homebuyers a favour?

Market meltdowns, recession fears and the upending of the global trading system are the result of Donald Trump’s economic vandalism. But there is a chink of light – at least for borrowers, battered by an extended period of high rates and warned that the era of cheap money is over.

Well, thanks to Trump, it is about to get cheaper.

Charlie Bean, the Bank of England’s former deputy governor, is just the latest to call on his old employer to respond to the chaos – which has knocked trillions of pounds off global stock markets – by cutting UK interest rates harder and faster. Thanks to the “crazy situation” in the US, he said they should be cut “to at least 4 per cent” next month to reduce the cost of borrowing.

Calling for “at least” a half-point cut at the Bank’s May meeting in a newspaper interview, Bean pointed to what happened in November 2008 when the markets predicted a quarter, or maybe a half-point cut, amid the financial crisis, only for rate-setters to go big by lopping 1.5 percentage points off its base rate.

As ugly as it looks, the current economic situation is not as bad as it was then. The markets have been lurching up and down like the latest super-ride at one of Disney’s theme parks, but there are no banks going cap in hand to taxpayers. At least, not yet.

The City has nonetheless started to price in at least one extra rate cut this year, with the interest rate swaps market moving lower. That matters to potential house-purchasers because it is the swaps market that governs the price of fixed-rate mortgage deals. The view that rates will fall faster – and remain lower for longer – has made it cheaper for lenders to buy money, holding out the prospect of better deals.

A couple of smaller lenders – Coventry and MPowered – have already acted. For new purchase customers, the latter’s two-year fixed rates now start at 4.05 per cent for a 60 per cent loan-to-value (LTV) deal with £999 fee, or 4.29 per cent without. Coventry has, meanwhile, alerted mortgage brokers to a move down with the announcement of the rates it will offer imminently.

The bigger high-street lenders have yet to follow, and they may be inclined to hedge their bets amid the chaos going on around them. But Nick Mendes, mortgage technical manager at broker John Charcol, thinks they will ultimately follow suit.

“MPowered is lowering rates in direct response to the sharp fall in swap rates following the recent market disruption. The tariffs imposed by the US administration … triggered a sell-off across global stock markets,” he said.

“The two-year swap rate dropped from 4.38 per cent to 3.79 per cent in just a few days, and similar movements were seen in gilt (government bond) yields. These are critical benchmarks for mortgage pricing. At the same time, inflationary concerns have taken a back seat, with the Bank of England now under pressure to support growth.”

This also offers some comfort to small businesses looking aghast at the hostile new environment they have to cope with, especially if they trade with the US. They have been crying out for cheaper borrowing costs.

But much still depends on the view of the nine members of the rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The swaps market is influenced by base rates and the carefully coded guidance they offer in their minutes and the speeches they make in between meetings.

Remember that Bean is an ex-member, without the burden of decision making and with much more freedom to express his views. If the MPC disagrees and takes a more cautious stance than the markets currently expect, then the swaps market will respond, and not in a good way.

The Bank’s rate-setters have taken a conservative path to date, repeatedly stressing the need for a “gradual” approach to reductions and sticking to that line even when other central banks have made more substantial moves. Inflation is also running above its 2 per cent target, at 2.8 per cent, even though that figure was less than the City had expected.

However, Trump’s actions and their impact on the global economy will reduce inflationary pressure, both in the UK and globally. Remember too that even the MPC’s hawk-in-chief Catherine Mann has proved sensitive to the difficult economic backdrop the UK faces. She sprung a surprise by voting for a half-point reduction in February, explaining it as necessary to “cut through the noise” and communicate the need for easier financial conditions.

With no sign of movement from Trump – he has doubled down on his tariff plan in the face of the recent market turmoil while engaging in a destructive game of tit-for-tat with China – I expect that the Bank will act. It will have to.

So for borrowers, whether homeowners or businesses, relief is on the way – perhaps in a matter of days if the high-street lenders move as Mendes expects.

I am not sure that the Bank will go big as Bean suggests. But I think there will be another three cuts this year in addition to the quarter-point move the MPC has already made. The clamour for more still is only getting louder.

River Thames pier renamed by Uber after campaign over slavery link

A pier in west London has been renamed St Mary’s Wandsworth after anti-racism campaigners criticised its previous name, Plantation Wharf Pier, for its links to slavery.

Located between the Wandsworth Riverside Quarter and Chelsea Harbour piers on the River Thames, the site was acquired by Uber Boat by Thames Clippers in 2019, who have been in consultation with stakeholders and residents regarding the name.

Following outcry in 2021, the name had been under review due to its links with colonialism, with Labour MP Marsha de Cordova previously calling on the nearby housing development Plantation Wharf to change its name.

In a statement, the company said: “From April 7, Plantation Wharf Pier will be known as St Mary’s Wandsworth following productive talks with house/boat residents, with the pier’s signage being updated to reflect the change.

“The updated pier name will appear in our new Uber Boat by Thames Clippers timetable and route map, which comes into effect on the same day as the official name change.”

While the housing estate is interested in following suit, its chair of the board of directors, Vanessa Brady, said the route was more complicated.

“For the estate, this is not an unwillingness to negotiate but as a private estate it means any changes must be funded by the residents,” she said. “It is not a simple process, but we will continue to consult with residents to see if they agree to pay for the costs incurred in changing the name and indeed if they want to change their name.

“We can only consult and then act on the wishes of the leaseholders. Another idea would be to receive a fund from the mayor’s office to pay for it.”

Plantation Wharf was first developed in the 1980s, is subdivided into rows labelled with food and fabrics, with Ms de Cordova previously saying the use of names like Cotton Row were “offensive”.

Governor guilty of relationship with jailed ‘Jesse Pinkman’ dealer

A former prison governor is facing jail time after being convicted of misconduct for engaging in a relationship with a drug gang leader.

Kerri Pegg, 42, exchanged her Honda Jazz for a £12,000 Mercedes C Class, a gift from Anthony Saunderson, a major organised crime boss currently serving a 35-year sentence.

Pegg, a divorcee described in court as “petite, blonde, and bubbly,” approved temporary release for Saunderson while serving as a governor at HMP Kirkham.

Saunderson was known among his criminal associates by the nicknames “Jesse Pinkman,” after the drug dealer in Breaking Bad, and “James Gandolfini,” the actor who portrayed Tony Soprano in the TV series The Sopranos.

Pegg, a keen gym-goer inside jail, was seen as a “rising star” in the Prison Service, quickly climbing the career ladder from graduate entrant to prison governor in six years, along the way also having breast enhancement surgery.

During her trial at Preston Crown Court, it emerged that Saunderson had developed and delivered a programme titled BADD (Beating Alcohol and Drug Dependency) for inmates at several jails, while at the time being a major drug dealer, running an amphetamines factory.

Pegg claimed her contact with Saunderson was due to his involvement in the BADD programme.

But even members of his gang grumbled that their boss was spending too much time with her and away from his wife and “work”.

Pegg was convicted of two counts of misconduct in a public office and one count of possession of criminal property.

The jury was out for two hours and 43 minutes after a three-week trial.

Pegg gave no reaction as the guilty verdicts were delivered.

Judge Graham Knowles told Pegg a prison term was “inevitable”, but bailed the defendant to the court building while a sentencing date was arranged either later on Tuesday or at a later date.

The court heard Pegg, originally from Bramhall, Stockport, had worked in the Probation Service for eight years.

Married at 26 and divorced four years later after her husband’s building and renovations firm went bust, she switched to the Prison Service for a new challenge.

Pegg joined in 2012 as a graduate entrant, working at prisons including Risley, Liverpool and Styal, and by April 2018 she was a governor at HMP Kirkham, where Saunderson was reaching the end of 10-year sentence for drugs offences.

He had been one of Merseyside’s most wanted fugitives for his part in importing £19 million of cocaine in shipments of corned beef from Argentina.

From the start of her time at the jail there were concerns about Pegg being inappropriately close to Saunderson, with the two often being in her office with the door closed.

She told jurors there were “cultural issues” at the jail and clashed with bosses over her “progressive” and “hands-on” open-door policy with prisoners.

In October 2018, Saunderson put in a release on temporary licence (ROTL) request which Pegg signed off, though she did not have the authority to do so.

Saunderson was released from Kirkham in May 2019 and within two months, while still on licence, was involved in another massive drug conspiracy.

Pegg’s trial heard he continued contact with prisons in the BADD programme and was also still close to Pegg, who was at the time the regional official co-ordinating drug strategy in six prisons in the North West.

The Prison Service has been contacted for comment.

Saunderson and his gang were producing and supplying drugs on an industrial scale from a lab at a premises on the England/Wales border and a storage unit in Aintree, Merseyside.

He was jailed for 35 years at Liverpool Crown Court in August 2022 after law enforcement agencies cracked the Encrochat system, the phone network used by serious organised criminals.

It revealed Saunderson’s drug dealing and his relationship with Pegg.

Police raided her apartment in Orrell, Wigan, in November 2020. The Mercedes paid for by Saunderson was parked outside.

They discovered designer clothes, handbags and jewellery, and found Pegg living way beyond her means, buying Jimmy Choo shoes and Chanel necklaces.

Detectives discovered that despite her £3,000 a month income, Pegg was deep in debt and had not declared three County Court judgments which amounted to misconduct, as debts make officials vulnerable to corruption.

Her four credit cards were “maxed out” and she had 6p in her savings account.

Detectives also found a toothbrush and a pair of Hugo Boss flip flops both carrying Saunderson’s DNA.

Andrew Alty, defending, in his closing speech to the jury, claimed Pegg had been, “green and stupid” and a naive and gullible person who was manipulated by Saunderson.

Pegg tearfully told jurors she had been “incredibly stupid” but did not think she had done anything wrong.

Barbara-Louise Webster, prosecuting, said Pegg had a promising future, but added: “Anthony Saunderson was her downfall.”

Outside court, Tarryn McCaffrey, from the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS), said: “Kerri Pegg’s conduct fell far short of what might be expected from any professional within the Prison Service, let alone one of such a senior grade as prison governor.

“She was clearly involved in an inappropriate relationship with Saunderson after he was released and the evidence points to this going back further, to a time when he was in jail.

“This relationship, and the fact that Pegg failed to disclose her debts to her employers, amount to a gross breach of trust and are therefore extremely damaging to public confidence.”

Poverty and homeless charity The Brick, based in Wigan, where Pegg was given a job as an operations manager after resigning from the Prison Service, said in a statement: “Kerri Pegg has been employed by The Brick since March 2021.

“We became aware of her arrest in May 2023, at which time we took immediate and professional HR and safeguarding advice to guide our response. We carefully considered all available options, including dismissal, suspension, and working with restrictions, while awaiting the outcome of the ongoing police investigation and subsequent trial.

“The decision was made by The Brick’s board to allow Kerri to continue her role under substantial restrictions.

“We are deeply shocked and saddened by today’s verdict. As an organisation, our focus remains on supporting the most vulnerable in our community, and we remain committed to serving the needs of the homeless and those facing hardship in Wigan and Leigh.”

Dan Wootton accused of ‘catfishing’ former colleague

A former colleague of Dan Wootton has accused the ex-GB News presenter of pretending to be a woman in messages, and tricking him into sending explicit images in a “catfishing” case, the High Court has heard.

It is alleged that in 2010 Mr Wootton exchanged sexual messages with the claimant – who cannot be identified for legal reasons – while pretending to be “Maria Joseph”, and encouraged him to send explicit photographs and a video.

Mr Wootton is accused of obtaining sexual images by deceit and the claimant, known as YXN, has lodged civil proceedings against him “for damages for personal injuries and losses consequent on the defendant’s intentional infliction of harm, misuse of confidential information, infringement of privacy and deceit”.

At a hearing on Tuesday, Judge Roger Eastman said: “The claim relates to what is colloquially referred to as a catfishing exercise whereby a person alleged to be the defendant (Mr Wootton) impersonated a fictitious person and induced the claimant into engaging in exchanges with that person of a sexualised nature.

“It transpired that the person was, as I say, completely fictitious and the claimant alleges that as a result of that activity he has suffered psychiatric damage.”

Tuesday’s hearing concerned an application by Mr Wootton’s lawyers to set aside the anonymity order granted earlier this year to protect the identity of the claimant.

But the judge ruled that the order will remain in place, saying there is “clear evidence of potential adverse and serious adverse effect” on YXN if his identity published.

Justin Levinson, for the claimant, outlined the facts of his client’s claim in written submissions, saying: “In 2010, the defendant (Mr Wootton) communicated with the claimant via email and WhatsApp and Facebook messages, deceitfully pretending to be a female by the name of Maria Joseph.

“The messages became flirtatious and sexualised.

“The defendant sent to the claimant photographs of a female, which he falsely pretended was Maria Joseph/the person with whom the claimant was communicating. Some of the photographs showed the female partially or fully naked.

“The defendant also sent to the claimant a video of a man and woman having sexual intercourse, again pretending that the female was Maria Joseph/the person with whom the claimant was communicating.”

Mr Levinson continued: “In reliance on the defendant’s purported good faith, flattering and in the induced belief that he was communicating with Maria Joseph, an unknown female who was interested in a sexual relationship with the claimant, the claimant responded to the messages in a flirtatious and sexualised manner.

“The defendant encouraged the claimant to send explicit photographs and a video of himself masturbating, which he did.”

Samuel Rowe, for Mr Wootton, said in written submissions that the Metropolitan Police and Police Scotland investigated Mr Wootton over the allegation that he used fake online identities to obtain explicit images without consent and decided to take no further action.

But on Tuesday Mr Levinson said that, as far as he was aware, those investigations did not relate to the claimant’s complaint but to other similar allegations.

Mr Wootton, who did not appear at the hearing, has not yet filed a formal defence and no admissions have been made to the allegations, the court heard.

The global event bringing fresh energy to planet-positive solutions

As we navigate significant environmental and social challenges, the return of ChangeNOW, the world’s biggest expo of solutions for the planet, is much needed to reinvigorate climate action. The 2025 edition, which will take place from April 24th to 26th, will host 140 countries, 40,000 attendees, 10,000 companies and 1,200 investors.

Visionary leaders, established businesses and start-ups alike will gather to showcase over 1,000 sustainable solutions and groundbreaking innovations in key sectors such as clean energy, biodiversity, sustainable cities and the circular economy.

The ChangeNOW 2025 summit will be held at the iconic Grand Palais in Paris, a nod to the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement. Reuniting for the occasion will be guest speakers Mary Robinson, the former (and first female) president of Ireland, Laurent Fabius, former French prime minister, Patricia Espinosa, former UN climate chief and diplomat and Diána Ürge-Vorsatz, leading climate scientist and professor – all of whom were in the French capital a decade earlier to help shape the Paris Agreement at COP21.

There may have been obvious setbacks to environmental policy around the world of late, the United States’ recent withdrawal from the Paris Agreement being a notable one. However ChangeNOW 2025 intends to reaffirm the spirit of Paris, while serving as a catalyst for progress ahead of COP30 and the United Nations Ocean Conference (UNOC). “Ten years after COP21, ChangeNOW is where leaders and changemakers converge to accelerate the ecological and social transition,” states Santiago Lefebvre, founder and president of ChangeNOW. “Thousands of solutions will be showcased demonstrating that meaningful progress is within reach.”

His message of positive climate action will be supported by a multitude of world famous faces who will be in attendance at the auspicious event. Natalie Portman, Academy award-winning actress, director, author, activist, and producer; Captain Paul Watson, Founder of Sea Shepherd and Ocean Conservationist; Hannah Jones, CEO of The Earthshot Prize and Olympic champion boxer and gender equality advocate Imane Khelif are just a few of the names set to appear at ChangeNOW 2025.

With over 500 speakers and 250 conference sessions exploring climate action, biodiversity protection, resource management, and social inclusion, ChangeNOW 2025 will also hear the insights of acclaimed corporate leaders from Accor, Bouygues, Henkel, Lidl, Nexans, and Saint-Gobain, who will explain how businesses can be the ones to drive real change.

And the event will not only be an opportunity for global policymakers to discuss next steps in climate action, it will also be a platform for nations to showcase local innovations through their country pavilions. Expect impactful solutions from countries including South Africa, The Netherlands, and Ukraine – demonstrating international collaboration on the topic of climate.

In addition to the packed program of speakers, workshops, exhibits and networking opportunities, ChangeNOW 2025 will host the Impact Job Fair on Saturday, 26 April, with over 150 recruiters and training organisations offering in excess of 600 roles. Dedicated to the public and young professionals, the interactive workshops, educational activities, and career opportunities in sustainable sectors on offer aim to inspire the next generation of changemakers.

The summit will also present the annual Women for Change conference and the accompanying portrait exhibition, which showcases 25 women who are set to have a significant positive impact on their communities, countries or on a global scale over the next 10 years. Created in 2021, the Women for Change initiative aims to platform and provide opportunities for women who are leading change around the world but require further recognition or investment to continue their work. The annual flagship event, which takes place on the afternoon of April 24th, offers women the chance to discuss new ideas, network with likeminded people, and also acquire funding to help solidify their leadership, and amplify their impact.

Step outside the Grand Palais and take a few steps to the Port des Champs Elysées, on the bank of the Seine, where the The Water Odyssey village awaits. One of the event’s standout features, the immersive 1,000 m² exhibition is open to the public and highlights solutions to maritime and river sustainability challenges – offering a mix of conferences, interactive displays, and sensory experiences to engage all ages.

For three days, ChangeNOW will transform Paris into the global capital of impact, bringing together policymakers, entrepreneurs, investors, and the public in the pursuit of sustainable progress.

Book your ChangeNOW 2025 ticket here

Trump has made China appear a beacon of free trade

The Chinese Communist Party, apostle of free trade. In a strange new world, that was the strangest thing, as shares crashed in reaction to President Donald Trump’s opening salvo of tariffs in a global trade war.

“The market has spoken,” said the foreign ministry spokesperson, Guo Jiakun, writing in English on Facebook – which is, by the way, banned in China. No double standards there, then. Beijing can always keep a straight face when it matters.

Politically, the Chinese government can scarcely believe its luck. It has stepped forward as a voice of reason and stability in a chorus of discord to promote the false narrative that it has been a model of good behaviour since it joined the World Trade Organisation (WTO) on 11 December 2001, a date that seems destined to live in the textbooks as the peak of globalisation.

The Trump tariffs “are a typical act of unilateral bullying”, complained a spokesperson for China’s Commerce Ministry.

“This approach disregards the balance of interests achieved through years of multilateral trade negotiations and ignores the fact that the US has long gained substantial profits from international trade,” the spokesperson added.

The official news agency, Xinhua, said the tariffs were “a weapon to suppress China’s economy and trade” and told the United States to stop undermining “the legitimate development rights of the Chinese people”.

It would be a mistake to write off Chinese rhetoric. The regime of Xi Jinping is serious and its actions speak louder than words.

Clue: China has listed “legitimate development rights” as one of its “red lines” in dealing with the US. The term is code for the export-led economic model which has propelled the country to the rank of second largest economy on earth since it joined the WTO.

Understand that and you understand that for China this is existential. There could be no greater contrast to the whirlwind in Washington than the disciplined, efficiently executed responses announced by Beijing in nine statements outlining reprisals that went beyond mere numbers.

Xi himself did not deign to speak publicly, let alone do anything as vulgar as posting on social media in capital letters. The Chinese public would have thought it beneath his dignity.

Untroubled by such niceties, Trump swiftly posted to his followers online that “CHINA PLAYED IT WRONG, THEY PANICKED.”

With all due respect to the American president, that is exactly what they did not do. The Xi hit list is ominous because it is well-planned and researched. The “Red Emperor” rules a mandarin class of sophisticated operators who do nothing else but study China’s opponents using every intelligence tool at their disposal.

The easy part for China was to impose reciprocal 34 per cent tariffs on all American imports from 10 April. It also suspended six American firms from exporting to China, launched anti-dumping actions in the medical sector and targeted the US giant DuPont with a probe into potential monopoly practices.

The hard part showed just how thoroughly the Chinese had done their work. No penguin islands or weird mathematics here. They banned the export of “dual use” items, which could have military or civilian applications, to 16 US firms, all in the technology sector.

Their key move was to put export controls on seven rare earth elements “to safeguard national security”. It’s on the public record that some of these are vital to US weapons systems.

The list of rare earths included terbium, which is used to enhance the properties of specialised magnets used in guidance systems, satellites and radar. The magnets are integral to the state-of-the-art F-35 fighter, Predator drones, cruise missiles and nuclear submarines.

Then there’s dysprosium, a rare-earth element of which China controls nearly all the world’s supply. It is used to make high-grade magnets that work in super-heated conditions and is found in the newest semiconductors. Other rare earths on the list are vital to jet engine turbine blades. All will now require special export licences.

China and America are thus in a new kind of war over technology and artificial intelligence. Both Joe Biden and Trump tried to choke the supply of advanced semiconductors to Chinese manufacturers, while China is seeking to choke the supply of raw materials to America’s tech champions.

It’s not hard to see how dangerous this could get. The founder of free-trading modern Singapore, the late Lee Kuan Yew, once told me in an interview that “World War Two was caused because of empires and protectionism”.

He recalled that in the 1940s an oil embargo on Imperial Japan pushed its military leaders into war and he warned that if the West tried to isolate China economically “that is bound to lead to conflict”.

Lee was talking in the 1990s, when China stood on the threshold of globalisation. It joined the WTO only after hard-fought talks. But Charlene Barshevsky, who sealed the deal for the United States, later lamented that the Americans failed to use the WTO to punish Beijing when it broke the rules.

That created the belief that appeasement and elite inertia condemned the American working class to decline, the foundation story of Trump’s movement to Make America Great Again. So it is some irony that the Chinese have just filed a formal complaint about Trump’s tariffs – with the World Trade Organisation.

Michael Sheridan, longtime foreign correspondent and diplomatic editor of The Independent, is the author of The Red Emperor published by Headline Press at £25

The US president must stop his ‘Trump Slump’ becoming a global one

Most shocks in capital markets are, by definition, unexpected. They sometimes derive purely from some almost random-seeming shift in market sentiment, albeit with more deep-set fundamental factors at work. The Great Crash of 1929 and the stock market crash of October 1987 – Black Monday – fall neatly into that category.

Others are more clearly understood in real time, but still a shock: the global financial crisis of 2008 is comprehensible from a distance, albeit famously seen as a “black swan” event. Still others are more purely external – Arab nations imposing an oil curfew after the Yom Kippur war in 1973; or whatever bat, pangolin or Chinese lab assistant was responsible for the coronavirus getting loose.

The Trump tariff crash of 2025 is an altogether unusual affair – one of the few such catastrophes to befall the savings and livelihoods of millions of people caused by the stubbornness of one man.

Because it is Donald Trump – and he alone – who is responsible not only for the substance of his reckless shutdown of US trade with the rest of the world, but the deeply flawed design of the tariff schedules, the practically unprecedented suddenness of their introduction, and the incomprehensible rationale for the policy. Certainly, Mr Trump made no secret of his love for – “the most beautiful word” – tariffs.

But the scale and incompetence that has been attached to his attack on trade has stunned and appalled the world. Worse even than that, it has left people confused.

At one point over the weekend, serious analysts were suggesting that Mr Trump actually intended for the markets to crash. In most cases, this was not a product of the over-conspiratorial minds of the Trump cultists, but because the president himself had reposted a story on social media suggesting that he was “Purposely CRASHING The Market”. A White House spokesperson had to state that the president did not, in fact, deliberately wipe some $8 trillion off the world’s stock markets – another unwelcome precedent set by this president.

The question then arises: “What does Mr Trump think he is doing?” The answer is that no one knows, not even the president.

Some, including the president himself in his unorthodox Rose Garden presentation and his secretary for commerce, Howard Lutnick, suggest that it is all about reindustrialising the United States and generating “trillions” of long-term tax revenues. In his address to workers at Jaguar Land Rover on Monday, Sir Keir Starmer admitted that tariffs are “a huge challenge for our future, and the global economic consequences could be profound”.

Less than comfortingly, Mr Trump compares what he’s putting the previously healthy American economy through to a patient undergoing an operation. Others, occasionally also including the president himself, suggest it is merely another of his brilliant negotiating tactics, and point excitedly to the response of nations such as Vietnam, Israel and Argentina offering zero-tariff deals with America – but which would therefore yield zero returns for the proposed new US “External Revenue Service”.

Put simply, it is a matter of “Tariffs bad – uncertainty even worse”. Businesses and households cannot plan in such an environment, and that means that investment will be frozen for weeks, if not months, and a recession becomes ever more likely.

That is one imminent danger. Another is the way that the market contagion has spread from industrial and resources stocks to the banks, with the obvious worry that the trade recession will soon be joined by its evil twin, a credit crunch. As confidence drains from the world economy, companies are nervous about investing, banks are reluctant to lend, and savers will turn to safer havens than equities. Historically, such security was offered by the United States dollar; now, perhaps, not so much.

One of the great ironies in Mr Trump’s plan to boost the American economy is that, within a fairly short time, he will have plunged it into such a slump that he will need to take emergency measures to rescue it – tax cuts, and increasing the US budget deficit to pay for it. The Federal Reserve may find it has no alternative but to cut interest rates – usually a welcome move, but in this case merely proof of the disaster the Trump administration is inflicting on its people.

The net result may be stagflation: above-target increases while economic activity stagnates. It is analogous to what a combination of the Brexit shock and the reckless Truss experiment that crashed the UK economy in 2022 would do. It is that bad.

What can the authorities, including in the United States, do to prevent a slump? Unlike in 2008 and 2020, for example, in most Western economies, there is far less scope for borrowing at sustainable interest rates to support the economy.

In 2008, when Gordon Brown was prime minister and had to nationalise most of the British banking sector, the UK national debt-to-GDP ratio stood at about 36 per cent. By the time Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak were faced with closing down the economy in 2020, it was 85 per cent. It now stands at 95 per cent, and trending higher.

If the present chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has barely enough fiscal headroom to keep to her fiscal rules, she will have to find some convincing explanations about the much more onerous costs of nursing Britain through what we may soon be calling “the Trump Slump”. That, of course, is not even accounting for the real cost of deterring Vladimir Putin and helping to defend Europe (that being another direct consequence of Mr Trump’s election).

Much the best move, and one still hoped for, is that Mr Trump accepts the manifold and genuine offers of constructive negotiations he’s had from world leaders, declares an early “victory” for his tactics, and announces a 90-day moratorium during which new, freer trade deals can be reached across the world.

It would be good news for all. The markets would calm, American voters would no longer fear opening their pension fund statements, and Mr Trump might turn his mess into a miracle of trade liberalisation.

The dangers if President Trump does press on with his mercantilist “medicine” for America are too gruesome to contemplate. At times such as this, what else is there other than optimism?