Why three tiny knitted hearts are priceless in helping a mother grieve

When Lisa Coleman looks at the tiny knitted hearts she keeps on her dressing room table, she will always treasure the cherished memory of her baby son’s short life.

The 36-year-old and her husband Matt, 35, found out that she was pregnant with twin boys in August 2023, and the couple from Dunmow, Essex, were in total shock – but decided to embrace their surprise as an adventure. However, nothing could have prepared them for what they learned next.

When they were referred to Great Ormond Street Hospital (GOSH) and given a cardiac screening after a 20-week routine scan, they discovered their son Lennie had “rewritten the textbook” when it came to his heart.

“It was the complete opposite of what it should be,” Lisa told The Independent. The moment she heard he had a rare and complicated diagnosis of a severe hole in his heart, she said her world came crashing down.

The couple were told that Lennie would never have a full heart if her pregnancy made it to full term, but he could have surgery to give him half a heart. Then, once he turned 18, he would be eligible for a heart transplant.

Doctors were concerned that if Lennie had any further complications or died during pregnancy, then his brother Ronnie could be at risk too.

“We were offered selective termination, but that posed a massive risk to Ronnie as well,” she said. “It just didn’t feel right to end Lennie’s life like that either.”

They decided to progress with the pregnancy, with fortnightly scans at University College London Hospital (UCLH), which works closely with GOSH at the foetal stage.

“The most amazing thing was, we both felt like Lennie was giving us signs to sort of know what the right thing to do was,” Lisa said.

Lisa went into labour suddenly at 32 weeks in February 2024, and was rushed to her local hospital.

Senior consultants filled the shoes of junior doctors, who were on strike, and one cardiac specialist remained in the room during her caesarean to administer the drugs needed to keep Lennie’s heart beating in those first crucial minutes.

Ronnie and Lennie’s birth was incredibly rare as they were twins born within their amniotic sac, which is something that only happens to one in 80,000 babies.

“It’s obviously really special when it’s one baby, but it was two babies in a sack,” she explained. “I never got to see what that looked like, which is a shame, but at least I can kind of imagine it.”

Before Lennie was taken to GOSH, Lisa, Matt and Ronnie got to spend one special moment with him in the same room.

“I think that we didn’t quite appreciate that it was going to be the last time that we were together in a room with the boys – they never really got to be together outside of my body,” she added.

While Matt and Lennie were transferred to London, Lisa remained at her local hospital, where she cared for a prematurely born Ronnie.

But while Lisa breastfed Ronnie, she couldn’t shake the immense guilt she felt from not being able to provide for Lennie, and being away from her daughter Cora, two, who was staying with her sister.

The experience was especially difficult because Lisa had previously been expecting triplets in 2021, but she went into labour at 20 weeks and the couple’s three children were stillborn.

“Lennie was doing OK for the first couple of days at GOSH, which I think again he kind of deliberately did,” she said.

“He was such a special, kind boy. I think he was trying to keep me as calm as possible so that my body would produce what it needed to produce for his brother.”

While Lennie showed initial signs of improvement, his health started to deteriorate. Doctors found that his heart was letting too much blood get to his lungs, and he was beginning to have episodes where his heart was close to stopping.

When Lisa finally went to GOSH to be with Matt and Lennie, they made the decision to go down the palliative care route.

“I didn’t want him to pass away in a hospital bed with no one around him, like when Matt was in the accommodation that GOSH had put up for him,” she said. “Or if we got to a stage where he could have the operation, I didn’t want him to die in a hospital theatre with people around him he doesn’t know.”

Speaking with the palliative care team was “devastating” for Lisa and Matt, but the hospital had thought of small things that would go on to mean everything to the couple.

One of the nurses came round with little knitted hearts in a bowl, and offered three to Lisa – one for Lennie, one for Ronnie, and one for Cora.

Lennie then “kissed” all three hearts, one of which he is buried with. The remaining two sit on Lisa’s dressing room table, where they will go into memory boxes for Cora and Ronnie when they are older.

“It’s priceless,” she said. “It’s something from their brother.”

Lennie died in his parents’ arms in the Rainbow Room of GOSH at just two weeks old. Doctors had said he would pass in two hours, but he stayed alive for a further 24 – an extra day that was precious to Lisa and Matt.

“People have said he really put up a fight, but I don’t like to think of it like that,” she said. “I like to think that he just wanted to spend time with his mum and dad before he left.”

She praised her “little brave soldier” of a son, who she believed wanted to make sure his brother would be able to live in his legacy.

Lennie’s bravery at just two weeks old inspired Lisa to run the London Marathon to raise money for GOSH Charity. She said marathon training has helped her through the immense grief she has felt since he died.

“When things have been hard, it’s been nice to just think about Lennie – it’s my time with him,” she explained.

“I’ll think about him the whole way round. My marathon leggings actually have his name written all over them, so even if I have a moment of weakness, I can just look down at my legs and I’ll be like, ‘No, carry on.’”

Money raised by Team GOSH at the London Marathon will help GOSH Charity fund vital family support, research and medical equipment to give seriously ill children the best chance and childhood possible. Find out more here, while Lisa’s fundraising page can be found here.

Justin Bieber announces his grandfather Bruce Dale has died at age 80

Justin Bieber is mourning the death of his grandfather, Bruce Dale.

The 31-year-old singer shared an emotional tribute to his grandfather, who died at the age of 80, on Instagram Saturday. The post included a throwback photo from 2009 of the pair, with Bieber’s hands holding onto Dale’s face.

“Papa, I always took all ur money lol. I remember u specifically telling me, gramma gave u an allowance of 20 dollars for the WEEK!” he wrote. “I would always convince you to spend on snacks at the hockey game on Friday nights. Reluctantly, you always gave it to me. Corn nuts, skittles, gum balls, chuck a puck, slush puppies.”

Bieber continued the caption by recalling more fond memories with his grandfather and expressing how much he’ll miss him.

“For enduring all of my grandpas heckling for all of your horrible referee calls lmfao…my grandpa wasn’t shy in letting them know that they were being pieces of s****. I can’t wait to see u again soon in heaven,” he added. “Until then I know ur watching down probly still heckling Beatty or Fagon for missing that cross check call in the corner there, lmfao.”

“I will miss u. I will ache. And I’ll sit and let myself remember all of the wonderful times we’ve had,” he concluded.

According to an obituary, Dale, who’s the father of Bieber’s mother, Pattie Mallette, “passed away peacefully” at the Rotary Hospice Stratford Perth in Stratford, Ontario, on Thursday.

Along with Mallette, Dale had three other children: Candie Toper, Chris Mallette, and Chris Dale. He was the husband of Diane Dale.

The obituary notes that Bieber is one of Dale’s three grandchildren. Dale also had six grandchildren, including Jack Blues, Bieber and his wife Hailey’s seven-month-old son,

Dale made multiple appearances in Bieber’s work, including in the 2020 Justin Bieber: Seasons docuseries and the 2011 Never Say Never documentary musical.

Dale previously opened up about his relationship with the “Peaches” singer. During an interview at the Stratford Perth Museum in 2018, leading up to the opening of an exhibit in honor of Biber, Dale recalled seeing his grandson “on the stage for the first time.”

“[It] was amazing,” he said. “Grandma and I drove eight hours to get to [Bieber’s] first show, and he didn’t know we were coming.”

When asked why he got so emotional at Bieber’s show, Dale responded: “I don’t know. It just happens. I can sit and talk with anybody about anything, but when it comes to talking about him, I just get emotional.”

Crystal Palace set up shot at FA Cup history and show others the way

This is what the FA Cup is supposed to be about. Crystal Palace are now one game away from history, after Eberechi Eze emphasised how he is the present, and maybe the future. You could say the same about Adam Wharton. The first won this semi-final against Aston Villa, the other ran it. Ismaila Sarr then offered the flourishes. All three players crucially elevated a supreme team performance, on an epic day for the club.

Villa meanwhile couldn’t get to that level, as if recent efforts have finally caught up with them. For Palace, this was everything, and you could tell. Eze and Wharton stood out but the collective effort was utterly immense.

There were so many blocks and ultra-committed challenges, of the type that only come when something greater is on the line; when players go deep into themselves. This would be of profound value, after all. Palace are the only club left in this FA Cup that have never won a major trophy.

Villa are now out, after a 3-0 defeat where they didn’t give the best of themselves. It was the one pity about an otherwise vibrant occasion at Wembley, where you could feel how much it meant to both clubs.

Villa just couldn’t transfer that desire in the way they wanted. They are almost vintage victims of their own success in that sense. They’ve had so much on the line of late, and the chance to end a trophy drought that this represented has almost been too much amid a push for Champions League qualification, as well as a Champions League quarter-final itself.

This does not take away from Palace’s victory, though. They were good value and this was a 3-0 that really could have been a 4-0 or 5-0 on chances. There was even a missed penalty from Jean-Philippe Mateta.

Whatever the figures on the scoreboard, though, the reality was that Palace did a number on Villa.

It is credit to their manager, Oliver Glasner. You can see why Palace quoted Bayern Munich so high a figure when they came for him in the summer. It is said to be well over £20m. If he wins the FA Cup, to follow Eintracht Frankfurt’s 2022 Europa League, it will be priceless.

He has already given this club just a third major final in their history and it stems from maximising the burgeoning quality of this fine team.

Glasner had been privately confident before the game, given that he hadn’t lost any of four games to Unai Emery’s Villa. The feeling was that Palace are set up well to play them and the Austrian had been working on a plan to work around Villa’s superior midfield.

Wharton had been central to that, literally. It was one of those great defensive midfield displays. He seemed to constantly be in the right place to win the ball, before then doing something productive with it. Repeat this over the course of a game and you gradually shift emotional momentum as much as the momentum of a match.

Villa just couldn’t get a proper foothold, even after moments that felt game-changing, like Tyrick Mitchell’s early mis-kick or Mateta’s missed penalty. Palace always had more to give. There was always that man there.

Any time someone like Marco Asensio worked their way into the box, Maxence Lacroix or Chris Richards appeared. There were so many of those sudden blocks or interceptions, delivered with utter conviction.

There was then the showpiece moment, that essentially put Palace in English football’s showcase event.

On 31 minutes, Sarr drove the ball across the Villa box, with the sort of delivery that just demanded to be hammered. Eze responded. He ran on and whipped the most emphatic and swerving strike into the net. It was as powerful as it was aesthetically pleasing. The ball did end up going down the centre of the goal but, in real time, it looked like Emi Martinez had no chance.

You maybe couldn’t quite say the same for the game-clinching second. After Martinez’s movement had made Mateta’s penalty more difficult, to the point he hit it wide after a foul on Eze, it seemed to catch the goalkeeper himself out. The footwork wasn’t quite right and Sarr evidently spotted the opening, driving the ball into the corner.

Sarr’s breakaway second, to make it 3-0 in stoppage time, was just a final touch; an opportunity for Palace to properly celebrate this win.

The truth was that they never looked nervous in any way. They were too on it. While some of that is the sort of thing that happens when players lift themselves for a day of this magnitude, a collective display like this is only possible out of something greater.

Glasner has fashioned a fine team, that has grown with the season. To think there were doubts at the start of the campaign, when Palace initially struggled after the loss of Michael Olise.

No one at Selhurst Park was ever worried. They had full confidence in their fine manager, and the talents of this team.

Palace now look like they are brimming with vibrant quality. While the usual response to this is to survey the number of players that wealthier clubs would look to buy – and we are now talking Eze, Wharton, Mateta and Marc Guehi at the very least – there is something worthier to discuss.

Palace are what a lot of upper-level English teams should be. They have built on and honed the abundant talent in their south London area, to create a feisty and sophisticated team.

There is real identity and now, there is a real chance to create a moment that the club’s history can be wrapped around.

Meanwhile, Villa fans could barely look, with many having left before the final whistle. That is entirely understandable.

A danger grows that this previously promising season peters out into little. All that is left is now the push for the Champions League, which is one of the very reasons they were cost this chance in the first place.

It is one of the problems of modern football that qualification for the premier continental competition is worth so much more, in pure financial terms, than getting to the FA Cup final. Those at Villa will be consoling themselves with that, although some within the club were even remarking how that shouldn’t be the case.

You only have to look at Palace. They have also become a team to watch. They now have a day to look forward to.

After two previous lost FA Cup finals, both against Manchester United, they have this third opportunity. They certainly look like they know what this is all about.

Jackson finds form at just the right time to revive Chelsea’s season

Nicolas Jackson ended his long goal drought to fire Chelsea a step nearer to the Champions League with a 1-0 win against Everton at Stamford Bridge.

A dominant display was capped by the winning goal scored midway through the first half, the striker’s first since 15 December finished confidently from 20 yards past Jordan Pickford as though he had been scoring every week, as suspended head coach Enzo Maresca watched from the stands.

The Italian’s lively celebrations following Pedro Neto’s last-gasp winner at Fulham a week ago had earned him a third yellow card of the season, but his exuberance will feel justified if, as looks increasingly possible, Chelsea go the distance in the race for the top five.

This win, which would have been greater but for an inspired individual display by Pickford, was Chelsea’s third in five in the Premier League and ensured they will see out the weekend in the Champions League places.

They dominated virtually throughout. Early on, Marc Cucurella linked up on the left with Noni Madueke who dashed forward and drew the first in a showreel of saves from Pickford.

Romeo Lavia made his first start since mid-January and in the first half Chelsea enjoyed near-total control of midfield as a result, moving the ball with urgency in the Everton half and displaying an aggression off the ball that has been seen too infrequently in recent months.

It was through just such pestering that they went in front. Pickford’s clearance put Beto under pressure, and facing his own goal he was dispossessed by the probing boot of Trevoh Chalobah. Enzo Fernandez picked up the bits on 27 minutes, threading the ball up to Jackson who turned on the spot and took a confident stride forward before sending a delightful finish into the corner.

Everton had had virtually no attacking presence. Their only chance off the half came in the closing minutes when Abdoulaye Doucoure failed to make proper contact with Vitalii Mykolenko’s cross, skewing his header hopelessly wide.

Pickford foiled Madueke for a second time just after the restart, turning the winger’s close-range drive away with his boot at the near post.

Chelsea’s own goalkeeper Robert Sanchez had been under fire, still deemed in some sections of the home support to be too erratic to command either the shirt or his penalty area. He repaid Maresca’s continued faith with an impressive save to keep out Beto midway through the second half, diving at full stretch to his right and throwing a firm hand behind the striker’s bullet effort.

Madueke vs Pickford resumed for a third bout, the Everton goalkeeper producing the save of the match to claw his England teammate’s low curler away from the corner.

Jackson put the ball in the net for a second time but was ruled offside after Pickford beat out Cucurella’s drive, then Sanchez made his own contribution to what had been an excellent exhibition of goalkeeping to deny Dwight McNeil.

PA

Gregg Wallace addresses Penny Lancaster and Vanessa Feltz claims

Gregg Wallace has said he contemplated suicide after being hit by allegations of multiple instances of inappropriate behaviour, as he addressed specific claims by high-profile figures, including Penny Lancaster and Vanessa Feltz.

Last year, Wallace was accused of making “highly inappropriate” comments to 13 people across five shows over a 17-year period between 2005 to 2022, by media personalities such as former Newsnight host Kirsty Wark and actor Katy Brand. ,

He was also accused of “bullying” or inappropriate behaviour by celebrities, including Rod Stewart’s wife, former model Lancaster, and TV presenter Feltz.

Speaking to the Daily Mail, the TV host said he had endured a “tidal wave of abuse” on social media after he posted a video on Instagram hitting out at the allegations, which he claimed came from “a handful of middle-class women of a certain age”.

“I hadn’t slept for four days,” Wallace said, explaining why he posted the clip, which he later apologised for.

“The feeling of being under attack, of isolation, of abandonment was overwhelming. Nobody from the BBC contacted me once these stories started breaking – absolutely nobody at all.”

He continued: “News channels were updating hourly with new allegations. There was a tidal wave of abuse on social media, a dozen reporters outside the gate. You’re watching yourself get personally ripped apart, criticised, accused of all sorts of stuff over and over again. You’re thinking, ‘This isn’,t true. It isn’t true. What’s coming next?”

He later said, “I thought about suicide all the time, ‘Is my insurance up to date? Will [my wife] Anna get some money? She doesn’t deserve this. It would be better if I wasn’t here.’”

He told the newspaper that MasterChef’s production company, Banijay, arranged for a crisis mentor to support him after he posted his video.

Most of the allegations, which were made in a BBC News investigation, came from production workers, many of whom were young female freelancers.

After the allegations were published, others came forward to accuse Wallace, 60, of incidents involving “groping” and “touching”, all of which he has vehemently denied.

Wallace said he had been taken aback to hear complaints from women he thought he had “got on” with, including Wark, 70, who accused him of telling “sexualised jokes” during the filming of Celebrity MasterChef in 2011, and other high-profile media personalities such as Vanessa Feltz and Kirstie Allsopp.

He said Feltz’s complaint had “knocked him for six” and also rejected Allsopp’s comments about his alleged reference to a sex act: “I wouldn’t have said that.”

Wallace addressed claims by rock singer Rod Stewart’s wife, former model Penny Lancaster, who alleged that he bullied and harassed her when she appeared on Celebrity MasterChef in 2021.

According to Wallace, the “falling out”, which he said there was raw footage of, involved a disagreement over whether an orchid should stay on a bowl of soup.

“I want to take the orchid off because it’s not edible,” he said. “She wants it to stay on.”

The Independent has contacted Lancaster’s representative for comment.

Wallace admitted that some accusations of him making inappropriate jokes were “probably true” but denied groping anyone, calling those claims “absolutely not true”.

After stepping down from MasterChef, he was replaced by Grace Dent who joined his former co-host, John Torode.

He also revealed that he was recently diagnosed with autism: “I want to make it absolutely clear, I’m not blaming my behaviour on my diagnosis, but it does explain a hell of a lot to me.”

Among the allegations were claims that Wallace would talk openly about his sex life and once told a junior female colleague he wasn’t wearing any boxer shorts under his jeans.

A former MasterChef worker told BBC News that he showed her topless photos of himself and asked for massages, while a former worker on Channel 5’s Gregg Wallace’s Big Weekends claimed he was fascinated by the fact that she dated women and asked her about the “logistics” of it.

The TV host and model Ulrika Jonsson told The Telegraph after the first allegations were published that Wallace allegedly had to apologise after making a “rape joke” that caused serious distress to another female contestant while she was competing on Celebrity MasterChef in 2017.

Geordie Shore star Charlotte Crosby, who appeared on Celebrity MasterChef in 2024, commented on Rod Stewart’s post about his wife to allege Wallace was “extremely unpleasant” to her during filming.

Wallace’s lawyers said it was “entirely false that he engages in behaviour of a sexually harassing nature”.

Findings from an investigation by Banijay into Wallace’s alleged behaviour are expected to be made public next month.

If you are experiencing feelings of distress, or are struggling to cope, you can speak to the Samaritans, in confidence, on 116 123 (UK and ROI), email jo@samaritans.org, or visit the Samaritans website to find details of your nearest branch.

If you are based in the USA, and you or someone you know needs mental health assistance right now, call the National Suicide Prevention Helpline on 1-800-273-TALK (8255). This is a free, confidential crisis hotline that is available to everyone 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

If you are in another country, you can go to www.befrienders.org to find a helpline near you.

How online schools can help children form friendships as they learn

When thinking about the best education for your child, it’s naturally not just academic success that comes to mind. A good quality school experience is made up of many parts and one key element is the socialising opportunities that school can provide. Socialisation is crucial for building social skills, growing emotional intelligence and helping children form their own individual identity, as well as giving them an additional incentive to attend a place where they have fun and feel part of a community.

While it might be assumed that the social options are reduced when children attend online school, this is not the case. In fact, there are a number of advantages in terms of the structures, support and diverse social opportunities offered to children who join online schools.

Online schools give students the opportunity to form connections with a much more diverse community of students. The online model allows schools to welcome young people from around the world and this gives pupils a chance to make friends with students from differing backgrounds and cultures. Furthermore, this means they can meet more like-minded individuals and form stronger bonds and more meaningful friendships. This access to such a big and vibrant community also ensures that students can really find ‘their people’ and avoids situations where students are stuck in small circles or forced to engage with classmates that don’t share the same interests or passions.

This is something that Grace, who is now in year 13, has experienced since moving to online school. At her previous school, she was struggling with socialisation and felt that she didn’t really have a self-identity. At an online school, she has found she can be more herself. “A lot of people think that online school is about being alone, but I’ve found that without the physical element, I can express myself better,” Grace explains.  Subsequently, the majority of her closest friends are from her online school and many she has met offline too. “I feel like I’ve met my people,” she says.

Isabella, who is in year 10, has also found that her experience of socialising at an online school has suited her much more than previous bricks and mortar schools. With her father’s job meaning the family moves country every three years, she has always previously struggled forming new friendships at the schools she joins. “I’m always the ‘new’ student, and it’s tough,” she says. After experiences with bullying, she found that online school is an environment she can thrive in. “You don’t have to turn on your camera or use your microphones if you’re not feeling comfortable. I’m not really a ‘social’ person, but I have made some friends here because we have these breakout rooms where we can talk to each other,” she adds.

While young people might not be meeting their fellow students physically every day, online schools put in place extensive measures to ensure that socialising is available for those who want to. This can be seen clearly at King’s InterHigh, the UK’s leading global online school which welcomes children aged 7 to 19 from across the world. Here, students join a warm and welcoming community with a huge range of opportunities for socialising. There’s dozens of clubs and societies for students across all year groups, representing a vast range of interests from chess to technology, sculpture to debate. Throughout the yearly student calendar, there are a number of events, showcases, and competitions of all kinds that provide a chance to socialise in different settings. Some happen internally, like the King’s InterHigh Arts Festival, while others allow students to interact with peers from outside their school when attending events like the International Robotics Competition.

Assemblies bring students together on a weekly basis and give them the chance to celebrate each other’s achievements, hear from their Student Council representatives, and find out what’s coming up at school. Each student is also assigned to one of the school’s eight houses and these smaller, tight-knit communities bring students a sense of belonging and camaraderie. Additionally, inter-house competitions are a fun and friendly way for students to engage and bond.

Although much socialising can come as a result of activities organised by the school, students at King’s InterHigh who are aged over 13 can continue building these relationships in a more informal setting thanks to the in-house, monitored, social media platform. Restricted solely to school students, the platform is safe, secure, and monitored to ensure a positive socialising environment for all those who choose to use it.

Online schools don’t just offer opportunities to socialise online but also offer ample opportunities to cement these connections in offline settings. At King’s InterHigh, there are global meet-ups throughout the year which bring together families allowing both children and parents and guardians to connect in real life. Regular educational school trips, from Geography excursions to science practical exams at other Inspired schools (the group of premium schools of which King’s InterHigh is part of) also allow children to socialise and have fun together in different settings.

Meanwhile, the annual summer camps, themed around a variety of interests and passions, including adventure sports, fashion, football, and tennis, are open to students across all Inspired schools and are held at spectacular Inspired campuses worldwide. Furthermore, the Inspired Global Exchange Programme offers a range of school exchange opportunities, lasting from one week to a full academic year.

Choosing where to educate your children is a big decision for any parent or guardian that involves many factors. However, when it comes to the social benefits, for the right child, online schools offer something truly transformative. To find out more about King’s InterHigh and whether it might be the right learning choice for your family, visit King’s InterHigh

The ‘F-word’ that’s tearing Westminster apart

“I suspect there’s going to be a big, seismic shock in British politics,” Nigel Farage said at a party at London’s Ritz hotel to mark his 25 years in politics. That was in 2016 – five months after the initial shock of the Brexit referendum.

Farage has waited a long time for his seismic moment in party politics. It might have come at last year’s general election, when his Reform UK won 14 per cent of the vote. But it landed only five seats, and its breakthrough was eclipsed by Keir Starmer’s landslide.

Farage hopes the political tectonic plates will shift next Thursday, when Reform hopes to seize the safe Labour seat of Runcorn and Helsby in a parliamentary by-election, and make gains in council and metro mayoral elections in England. Farage’s party is ahead in the opinion polls, but now needs to translate that to the ballot box to maintain the momentum it needs like oxygen.

My other memory of the 2016 party is the display of giant photographs of Farage and Donald Trump in the golden lift in Trump Tower in New York. Farage had just visited Trump, one of the first politicians to do so since his first presidential election victory that month.

Today, Farage is less keen to play up his Trump links amid the fallout from his damaging tariffs and his stance on the Ukraine-Russia war. Indeed, rival parties tell me that Farage’s Trump links are playing badly on the doorsteps. “It is hurting him,” one senior Labour figure claimed. Pollsters have picked up the same in focus groups.

Significantly, Farage has distanced himself from the US president, saying the tariffs were “too much, too soon”, that Trump risked turning Vladimir Putin into a winner and the US peace plan for Ukraine is unacceptable.

Yet the Trump connection – and a typically explosive internal row with his exiled MP Rupert Lowe – are unlikely to stop the beaming Farage having the last laugh next Thursday. Both the Conservatives and Labour approach these elections nervously – not because they fear each other, but Farage.

He has become the F-word of British politics, as figures in both parts of the now broken duopoly fret that they “don’t know what the f*** to do” about him.

Tory losses are inevitable because the 1,600 council seats up for grabs were last contested in 2021, when Boris Johnson was enjoying his “vaccine bounce”. The Tories could easily lose half of the almost 1,000 seats they are defending. Although many might fall to the Liberal Democrats, headlines about Tory losses and Reform gains would deepen Kemi Badenoch’s woes.

The job of leader of the opposition is hard enough after a crushing election defeat. Badenoch is in an even more unenviable position: she is not even seen as the real leader of the opposition because Farage is. There is no escaping his shadow.

That was illustrated when Robert Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary, fuelled the intense Tory debate about whether the party should do a deal with the devil Farage to “unite the right”. In a leaked recording, which emerged this week, Jenrick told a student dinner last month he would “bring this coalition together” to head off the “nightmare scenario” of Keir Starmer winning a second term because of a split on the right. Although Jenrick’s allies insist he was not talking about a coalition of the two parties but their voters, the damage was done.

The timing of the leak to Sky News was convenient for Labour, coming ahead of prime minister’s questions on Wednesday, when Starmer was bound to be on the defensive over the Supreme Court ruling that the legal definition of “woman” relies on biological sex.

This is Badenoch’s signature issue and Tory MPs hailed her performance as her best at PMQs, but Starmer was able to limit the damage by quoting Jenrick’s remarks. (My theory about leaks is that the enemy is usually involved in disseminating them).

Badenoch opposes a deal with Farage. While her team played down Jenrick’s words, they made the Tories look needy and weak, and were a reminder of Badenoch’s insecure position only five months after beating Jenrick to the leadership. The ambitious, energetic Jenrick seems to be still running for it. Colleagues grumble privately that the Tory grassroots favourite is not a team player.

Bad results next Thursday will fuel the Tories’ already intense debate about whether Badenoch should lead the party into the next general election. But it’s hard to see how she can make progress while Farage sets the political agenda.

I think the Tories’ best shot would be to battle it out with Reform for leadership of the right rather than obsess about a deal, which makes it look like they have already lost.

In any case, there’s a limit to what a Con-Reform deal could achieve. Voters are not a bloc which can be directed into another party’s column; they will make up their own minds. Tory and Reform voters are different, according to pollsters More in Common. They might agree on immigration, criminal justice and gender identity, but differ on redistribution and Trump. Reform supporters are right-wing on social issues but lean left on economics.

That is why Farage declares his tanks are on Labour’s lawn, called for the nationalisation of British Steel before the government and discovered a long-standing admiration for his new brothers in arms in the trade unions (which is not reciprocated). His “economically left, socially right” pitch is similar to Johnson’s at the 2019 election, which won over the red wall in the north and Midlands now targeted by Reform.

It is one reason Farage is not interested in a Tory pact – for now, at least. He wants to replace Badenoch’s party. “The red wall feels badly let down by Boris, so why on earth would we do a deal with the Tories?” one Reform insider told me.

Labour hopes Tory losses next Thursday will overshadow its own unpopularity. But Starmer’s party can’t escape Farage’s shadow either. Labour’s weakness will be exposed if Reform’s army captures Runcorn and makes inroads in the north and Midlands. That would be ominous for Starmer, whose strategists believe the red wall will decide the next general election.

A protest vote is a democratic safety valve: but use it with care

If you live in one of the parts of England that is voting on Thursday, we encourage you, above all, to vote. The Independent does not tell its readers how to vote but, like a benign constitutional monarch, it sometimes encourages and warns. Turnout is usually low for local elections, but voting is important and however you intend to cast your vote we urge you to take part in the democratic process.

The opinion polls suggest that Nigel Farage’s Reform UK will do well. It is poised to win the Runcorn and Helmsby parliamentary by-election, which is also being held on Thursday, and to win the mayoralties of Lincolnshire, Hull and East Yorkshire, and Doncaster. The party is likely to win hundreds of local council seats and may end up in control of some authorities, either by itself or in power-sharing arrangements with others.

Reform’s success will be dismissed by the Labour and Conservative parties as “a protest vote”. Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader, was dismissive before a single vote had been cast, saying: “Protest is in the air; protest parties are doing well at the moment.”

Unfortunately for her, if a governing party is unpopular, and the Labour Party undoubtedly is, you would normally expect the official opposition to give voice to that discontent and to benefit accordingly in mid-term elections.

What is unusual is that both the two main traditional parties are unpopular at the same time. The Conservatives have only just been rejected by the voters in the most emphatic terms, and it will take some time before they will be allowed a hearing. What was more surprising, perhaps, was the speed and extent of the disillusionment with the Labour government. Never before has a “landslide” general election victory been obtained on such a low share of the vote; and never before has such a triumph turned so quickly into disappointment.

It is no wonder therefore that Reform will do well, and well enough possibly to eclipse the success of other “protest parties”. The Liberal Democrats, well established in local government and long experienced in harvesting defectors from other parties, are also likely to do well on Thursday. The Green Party and pro-Palestinian independents may also pick up support from disillusioned Labour voters.

None of these should be dismissed as mere “protest” votes, as if they were a temporary, misguided and unserious diversion. Purists will say that it is a mistake to use a vote for a local councillor or regional mayor to express dissatisfaction with government policy on immigration, the cost of living or the NHS. This is to overlook the right of voters to use the system in whatever way they see fit. A so-called protest vote is an important democratic safety valve, a way for citizens to use the electoral machinery to send a message.

But – and this is where The Independent issues a warning – elections are about who holds power. Protest is democratic and necessary, but if it gives you a council run by incompetents, ideologues and conspiracy theorists, you are unlikely to benefit as a resident. Mr Farage’s party ought to be given the chance to prove that its representatives are none of these things, but the record of his previous political vehicles is not promising.

These local elections are about who can be trusted to empty the bins – and it is fortunate indeed for the Labour Party that there are no elections in Birmingham this year – but they are also part of the national political story. Two stories in particular. One is whether Labour can recover from the mess it has made of its first nine months in government. The other is the struggle for the leadership of the opposition, not just the one between Ms Badenoch and Mr Farage, but that between Ms Badenoch and Robert Jenrick, the rival she defeated last year.

Whether you disparage them as protest votes or not, they are votes, and they will help determine our future, locally and nationally. Use them carefully.