Why Trump-Putin talks unlikely to bring rapid end to Ukraine war
The war in Ukraine, sparked by Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, shows no sign of abating.
In the east of Ukraine, Russia presses on in a grinding and bloody advance. Deadly aerial strikes are a nightly occurrence across the country, while Russia’s refineries and energy facilities come under regular attack from Kyiv’s drones.
It is against this backdrop that the Kremlin confirmed a meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin was being planned and due to take place soon. “I’m here to get [the war] over with,” the US leader said on Wednesday.
Three rounds of talks between Russia and Ukraine held at his behest between May and July have failed to bring the two sides any closer to peace, and Trump may hope that taking the situation into his own hands could finally result in a ceasefire.
But the gulf between Kyiv and Moscow is so large that even Trump-mediated talks could make it difficult to bridge.
In a memorandum presented to the Ukrainians by Russia in June, Moscow outlined its maximalist demands for a “final settlement” of the conflict. They include the recognition of Russian sovereignty over the Ukrainian regions of Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson as well as Ukraine agreeing to demilitarisation, neutrality, no foreign military involvement and new elections.
“The Russian side can frame this in a dozen different ways, creating the impression that Moscow is open to concessions and serious negotiation,” wrote Russian political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya. “But the core position remains unchanged: Russia wants Kyiv to surrender.”
- Why did Putin’s Russia invade Ukraine?
Following a meeting between Putin and US envoy Steve Witkoff, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Wednesday that Washington had a better understanding of the conditions under which Russia would be prepared to end the war.
We don’t know if those conditions have changed. However, only last week Putin – likely referencing the memorandum – said Russia had made its goals known in June, and that those goals had stayed the same.
Therefore, despite the Kremlin agreeing to a Trump-Putin meeting, there is no reason to believe Moscow is ready to budge on its tough preconditions.
So why would Putin be agreeing to talks at this stage?
One possibility is that it hopes engaging in dialogue could fend off the secondary sanctions Trump has threatened to impose on Moscow’s trading partners as soon as Friday. The Kremlin may also feel it could convince Trump of the merits of its conditions to end the war.
At the start of his second term in office, Trump appeared to be more aligned with Russia than Ukraine, labelling Zelensky a “dictator” and suggesting he was to blame for the war with Russia.
Although he has since signalled his impatience with Putin – “he’s just tapping me along”, he said in April – Trump has also refused to say whether he felt the Russian leader had been lying to him over his readiness to move towards a ceasefire.
Whether because of personal affinity or an aligned worldview, Trump has been reluctant to ever fully condemn Putin for his actions.
When the two met in Helsinki in 2018 – during Trump’s first term as president – many were left stunned to see Trump side with the Kremlin over accusations of Russian meddling in the 2016 US election and take responsibility for the tense state of US-Russia relations.
It is perhaps partly to fend off the possibility of Trump being swayed by Putin that Kyiv wants to be involved in any ceasefire talks.
Through his envoy Steve Witkoff, Trump has also suggested holding a trilateral with Putin and Zelensky. But the Russian president has batted off these suggestions, saying the conditions for a meeting are still far off.
Now some in Ukraine are concerned a Trump-Putin meeting may result in the US president giving in to Putin’s demands.
Ukrainian MP Iryna Herashchenko said it was becoming evident that demands for territorial concessions by Ukraine would be made and added being absent from the negotiating table would be “very dangerous” for Kyiv.
“Ukraine is not afraid of meetings and expects the same bold approach from the Russian side,” Zelensky said on Thursday.
But the gulf between Russia and Ukraine remains.
And should the Kremlin eventually agree to a trilateral meeting, Moscow’s demands for a ceasefire have proven so intractable that it is unclear what bringing Zelensky and Putin face-to-face might achieve.
Ex-Superman actor says he’s becoming ICE agent
Ex-Superman actor Dean Cain has announced he is planning to join the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency, known as ICE.
In an interview on Wednesday, Cain, who is already a sworn law enforcement officer, said, “I will be sworn in as an ICE agent asap”.
It comes after he released a video encouraging members of the public to join following a recruitment drive by the agency, which is behind the Trump administration’s ramped-up deportation scheme.
Cain played the role of Superman between 1993 and 1997 in the TV series, Lois & Clark: The New Adventures of Superman.
He has gone on to star in a number of other films and TV shows, and has also directed.
In late July, ICE announced it was aiming to recruit an additional 10,000 new personnel, doubling the agency’s headcount as it ramps up deportations across the country.
It is specifically hoping to recruit deportation officers, along with attorneys, criminal investigators, student visa adjudicators and other roles.
Speaking on Fox News on Wednesday, Cain said: “I put out a recruitment video yesterday – I’m actually a sworn deputy sheriff and a reserve police officer – I wasn’t part of ICE, but once I put that out there and you put a little blurb on your show, it went crazy”.
“So now I’ve spoken with some officials over at ICE, and I will be sworn in as an ICE agent asap.”
“People have to step up. I’m stepping up. Hopefully a whole bunch of other former officers, former ICE agents will step up, and we’ll meet those recruitment goals immediately and we’ll help protect this country,” Cain added.
BBC News has contacted the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) for comment.
US President Donald Trump has vowed to ramp up the pace of deportations from the US to one million per year.
Part of that effort has included increased immigration raids since Trump became president.
They have sparked protests in cities across the US, with critics calling the raids unlawful.
On 29 July, ICE announced it was offering recruitment bonuses of up to $50,000 (£37,700) and student loan help to Americans interested in helping with the Trump administration’s deportation drive.
As part of the recruitment drive, the DHS unveiled recruitment posters akin to those used during World War Two, with the words “America Needs You” and “Defend the Homeland” with images of Uncle Sam, US President Donald Trump, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and other officials.
By Wednesday the agency said it had received more than 80,000 applicants for the 10,000 positions. Speaking on Fox News, Noem said they had removed age limits for how old applicants could be.
ICE currently has 20,000 officers and support personnel, spread across the country at 400 offices.
The recruitment drive comes just weeks after Trump signed his sweeping spending bill into law.
The bill included more than $76bn allocated to ICE – almost 10 times what it had been receiving previously – and making it the highest funded federal law enforcement agency.
France still battling largest wildfire in 75 years
France’s largest wildfire for 75 years, which has burned through an area larger than Paris, has slowed overnight but is not yet under control, officials have said.
More than 2,000 firefighters and 500 firefighting vehicles continue to be deployed to the Aude region, alongside gendarmerie and army personnel, officials said on Thursday.
An woman has died and 13 people, including 11 firefighters, have been injured, with two in a critical condition, since the fire broke out near the village of Ribaute in southern France on Tuesday.
Three people have also been reported missing by their relatives and dozens of homes have been destroyed, the Aude prefecture added.
Christophe Magny, one of the officials leading the firefighting operation told local media outlet France Info on Thursday that firefighters hoped to contain the wildfire later in the day.
Images overnight showed firefighters tackling the 16,000 hectare (62sq miles) blaze, which officials said had lost intensity since Wednesday due to wind and lower temperatures.
Water-bombing aircraft have also helped tackle the flames.
Smoke from the fires and large areas of burnt land could be seen from satellite images on Thursday, highlighting the scale of the devastation across the region.
Residents have been urged not to return home while operations continue, with 17 temporary accommodation sites opened up.
Villages in the Corbieres region remain on high alert, according to French media.
Officials say the wildfire is the largest in France since 1949, with French Prime Minister François Bayrou calling it a “catastrophe on an unprecedented scale”.
During a visit to the Aude region on Wednesday, Bayrou said the fire was connected to global warming and drought.
Environment Minister Agnes Pannier-Runacher also linked the blaze to climate change.
Officials said on Wednesday the fire’s quick advance was driven by strong winds, dry vegetation and hot summer weather.
Jacques Piraud, mayor of the village of Jonquières, where several houses burned down, told Le Monde that around 80% of the village was burnt.
“It’s dramatic. It’s black, the trees are completely charred,” he said.
French President Emmanuel Macron said yesterday that “all of the nation’s resources are mobilised,” and called on people to exercise “the utmost caution”.
Nearly a million more deaths than births in Japan last year
Almost a million more deaths than births were recorded in Japan last year, representing the steepest annual population decline since government surveys began in 1968.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has described the demographic crisis of Japan’s ageing population as a “quiet emergency”, pledging family-friendly policies such as free childcare and more flexible work hours.
But efforts to reverse the perennially low birth rates among Japanese women have so far made little impact.
New data released on Wednesday by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed the number of Japanese nationals fell by 908,574 in 2024.
Japan recorded 686,061 births – the lowest number since records began in 1899 – while nearly 1.6 million people died, meaning for every baby born, more than two people died.
It marks the 16th consecutive year of population decline with the squeeze being felt by the nation’s pension and healthcare systems.
The number of foreign residents reached a record high of 3.6 million people as of 1 January 2025, however, representing nearly 3% of Japan’s population.
The government has tentatively embraced foreign labour by launching a digital nomad visa and upskilling initiatives, but immigration remains politically fraught in the largely conservative country.
The overall population of the country declined by 0.44 percent from 2023 to about 124.3 million at the start of the year.
Elderly people aged 65 and over now make up nearly 30% of the population – the second-highest proportion in the world after Monaco, according to the World Bank. The working-age population, defined as those between 15 and 64, has dropped to about 60%.
A growing number of towns and villages are hollowing out, with nearly four million homes abandoned over the past two decades, government data released last year showed.
The government has spent years trying to increase birth rates with incentives ranging from housing subsidies to paid parental leave. But deep-rooted cultural and economic barriers remain.
High living costs, stagnant wages and a rigid work culture deter many young people from starting families. Women, in particular, face entrenched gender roles that often leave them with limited support as primary caregivers.
Japan’s fertility rate – the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime – has been low since the 1970s, so experts warn even dramatic improvements now would take decades to bear fruit.
Trump’s sweeping new tariffs take effect against dozens of countries
US President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariffs on more than 90 countries around the world have come into effect.
Moments before his deadline passed for countries to negotiate US trade deals, Trump posted on his Truth Social platform that billions of dollars were now flowing into his country as a result of his import taxes.
Trump is using tariffs to encourage jobs and manufacturing industries to return to America, among other political goals.
Separately on Wednesday, he threatened to raise the tariff on imports from India to 50%, unless that country stopped buying Russian oil. He also threatened a 100% tariff on foreign-made computer chips, to push tech firms to invest more in the US.
Trump’s trade policies have been broadly aimed at reshaping the global trading system, which he sees as treating the US unfairly. One of his key pledges as he returned to the White House in January was to cut the trade deficit – the shortfall between what America buys and what it sells.
His tariffs work by charging US importers a tax on goods they buy from other countries. Those importers may pass some or all of the extra cost on to customers.
Trump has also been accused of throwing the global economy into turmoil in recent months, though markets have recently been more stable.
The overall average US tariff rate is at its highest in almost a century, thanks to a range of other industry-specific taxes affecting products such as vehicles and steel.
The duties that came into effect on Thursday were first announced in April. Many were later paused amid market turbulence, and to give other countries time to strike new trade deals with the US.
A patchwork of rates were set for different countries – and were adjusted over time by Trump, who ultimately set a negotiating deadline of 7 August.
- What tariffs has Trump announced and why?
- See the Trump tariffs list by country
- How much cash is the US raising from tariffs?
- Six things that may cost Americans more after Trump’s tariffs
Export-dependent economies in South East Asia are among the hardest-hit.
Manufacturing-focused Laos and Myanmar face some of the highest levies at 40%. Some experts said Trump appears to have targeted countries with close trade ties with China.
But after more than four months of uncertainty, markets in Asia seemed to take the news in their stride on Thursday.
Major share indexes in Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea and mainland China were a little higher, while markets in India and Australia were lower.
The latest set of tariffs will offer countries some stability after months of chaos, said economist Bert Hofman from the National University of Singapore.
“This is supposed to be it,” he said. “Now you can start to analyse the impact of the tariffs.”
Some major economies – including the UK, Japan and South Korea – reached agreements to ensure goods exported to the US would face a lower tariff rate than Trump threatened in April.
The European Union has also struck a framework deal with Washington, in which Brussels has accepted a 15% tariff on goods from the trading bloc.
Switzerland has said it will hold an extraordinary meeting on Thursday after its officials were unable to reach a deal with the US.
At 39%, the tariff rate on Swiss goods is one of the highest imposed by the US, and threatens to hit the country’s economy hard.
Taiwan, a key Washington ally in Asia, was handed a 20% tariff. Its president Lai Ching-te said the rate was “temporary” and that talks with the US were ongoing.
Other tariffs unveiled by Trump after he returned to the White House in January have been aimed at the US’s top three trading partners – China, Canada and Mexico – with a variety of political goals in mind.
Last week, he boosted the tariff rate on Canada from 25% to 35%, saying the country had “failed to cooperate” in curbing the flow of fentanyl and other drugs across the US border. Canada insists it is cracking down on drug gangs.
But most Canadian exports to the US will dodge the import tax due to an existing trade treaty, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
Higher tariffs on Mexico were paused for another 90 days as negotiations continue to strike a trade deal.
Meanwhile, the US and China have held a series of talks in a bid to agree an extension to a 90-day tariffs pause due to expire on 12 August.
- Trump orders India tariff hike to 50% for buying Russian oil
- Apple to invest $100bn after pressure from Trump
- Analysis: Trump’s global tariffs ‘victory’ may well come at a high price
Some of Trump’s recent tariff moves have been bound up with a separate effort to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.
He has threatened to impose “secondary tariffs” aimed at Moscow’s trading partners if a ceasefire with Ukraine is not agreed by Friday, although it is unclear whether positive noises following talks between Washington and Moscow and a potential meeting between Trump and Putin will affect this.
In the interim, Trump threatened on Wednesday to raise the tariff rate on Indian goods to 50% from 27 August, as he pushes the world’s third largest importer of energy to stop buying oil from Russia.
Delhi called the move “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable” and vowed to protect its national interests.
The move marked a “sharp change” in Trump’s approach to Moscow that could spark concerns among other countries in talks with the US, said market analyst Farhan Badami from financial services firm eToro.
“There is the possibility here that India is only the first target that Trump intends to punish for maintaining trade relations with Russia,” Mr Badami said.
Also on Wednesday, Trump said he would impose a 100% tariff on foreign-made semiconductors.
That threat came as tech firm Apple announced a new $100bn (£75bn) US investment after coming under pressure from the White House to move more production to the US.
Major chipmakers that have made significant investments in the US appear to be able to dodge the new tariff. Government officials in Taiwan and South Korea have said in separate statements that TSMC, SK Hynix, and Samsung would be exempt from the new levy.
The White House did not immediately respond to a BBC request for clarification.
The BBC has also contacted SK Hynix and Samsung. TSMC declined to comment.
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India has 20 days to avoid 50% Trump tariffs – what are its options?
India has unexpectedly become a key target in Washington’s latest push to pressure Russia over the Ukraine war.
On Wednesday, Donald Trump doubled US tariffs on India to 50%, up from 25%, penalising Delhi for purchasing Russian oil – a move India called “unfair” and “unjustified”. The tariffs aim to cut Russia’s oil revenues and force Putin into a ceasefire. The new rate will come into effect in 21 days, so on 27 August.
This makes India the most heavily taxed US trading partner in Asia and places it alongside Brazil, another nation facing steep US tariffs amid tense relations.
India insists its imports are driven by market factors and vital to its energy security, but the tariffs threaten to hit Indian exports and growth hard.
Almost all of India’s $86.5bn [£64.7bn] in annual goods exports to the US stand to become commercially unviable if these rates sustain.
Most Indian exporters have said they can barely absorb a 10-15% rise, so a combined 50% tariff is far beyond their capacity.
If effective, the tariff would be similar to “a trade embargo, and will lead to a sudden stop in affected export products,” Japanese brokerage firm Nomura said in a note.
The US is India’s top export market, making up 18% of exports and 2.2% of GDP. A 25% tariff could cut GDP by 0.2–0.4%, risking growth slipping below 6% this year.
India’s electronics and pharma exports remain exempt from additional tariffs for now, but the impact would be felt in India domestically “with labour-intensive exports like textiles and gems and jewelry taking the fall”, Priyanka Kishore of Asia Decoded, a Singapore-based consultancy told the BBC.
Rakesh Mehra of Confederation of Indian Textile Industry called the tariffs a “huge setback” for India’s textile exporters, saying they will sharply weaken competitiveness in the US market.
With tensions now escalating, experts have called Trump’s decision a high-stakes gamble.
India is not the only buyer of Russian oil – there are China and Turkey as well – yet Washington has chosen to target a country widely regarded as a key partner.
So what changed and what could be the fallout?
India’s former central bank governor Urjit Patel said that India’s “worst fears” have materialised with the recent announcement.
“One hopes that this is short term, and that talks around a trade deal slated to make progress this month will go ahead. Otherwise, a needless trade war, whose contours are difficult to gauge at this early juncture, will likely ensue,” Mr Patel wrote in a LinkedIn post.
The damaging impact of the tariffs is why few expect them to last. With new rates starting 27 August, the next 20 days are critical – India’s moves in this bargaining window will be closely watched by anxious markets.
The key question is whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government will quietly abandon trading ties with Russia to avoid the “Russia penalty” or stand firm against the US.
“India’s efforts to reduce its dependence on Russian military hardware and diversify its oil imports predate pressure from the Trump administration, so Delhi may be able to offer some conciliatory gestures in line with its existing foreign policy behaviour,” according to Dr Chietigj Bajpaee of Chatham House.
He says the relationship is in a “managed decline”, losing Cold War-era strategic importance, but Russia will remain a key partner for India for the foreseeable future.
However, some experts believe Trump’s recent actions give India an opportunity to rethink its strategic ties.
If anything the US’s actions could “push India to reconsider its strategic alignment, deepening ties with Russia, China, and many other countries”, says Ajay Srivastava of the the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), a Delhi-based think tank.
Modi will visit China for the regional Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit – his first since the deadly 2020 Galwan border clashes. Some suggest a revival of India-Russia-China trilateral talks may be on the table.
The immediate focus is on August trade talks, as a US team visits India. Negotiations stalled earlier over agriculture and dairy – sectors where the US demands greater access, but India holds firm.
Will there be concessions in areas like dairy and farming that India has been staunchly protecting or could the political cost be too high?
The other big question: What’s next for India’s rising appeal as a China-plus-one destination for nations and firms looking to diversify their supply chains and investments?
Trump’s tariffs risk slowing momentum as countries like Vietnam offer lower tariffs. Experts say the impact on investor sentiment may be limited. India is still courting firms like Apple, which makes a big chunk of its phones locally, and has been largely shielded since semiconductors aren’t taxed under the new tariffs.
Experts will also be watching what India does to support its exporters.
“India’s government so far has not favoured direct subsidies to exporters, but its current proposed programmes of favourable trade financing and export promotion may not be enough to tackle the impact of such a wide tariff differential,” according to Nomura.
With stakes high, trade experts say only top-level diplomacy can revive a trade deal that seemed within reach just weeks ago.
For now the Indian government has put up a strong front, saying it will take “all actions necessary to protect its national interests”.
The opposition has upped the ante with senior Congress party leader Rahul Gandhi calling Trump’s 50% tariffs “economic blackmail” and “an attempt to bully India into an unfair trade deal”.
Is Modi’s touted “mega partnership” with the US now his biggest foreign policy test? And will India hit back?
Retaliation by India is unlikely but not impossible, says Barclays Research, because there is precedent.
“In 2019, India announced tariffs on 28 US products, including US apples and almonds, in response to the US tariffs on steel and aluminium. Some of these tariffs were eventually reversed in 2023, following the resolution of WTO disputes,” Barclays Research said in a note.