Three children charged with murder of man on Isle of Sheppey

Three children have been charged with the murder of a man on the Isle of Sheppey.

Two boys, aged 14 and 15, and a 16-year-old girl were charged with murder by joint venture, Kent Police said on Wednesday.

It came after Alexander Cashford, 49, died at the scene of an incident in the Warden Bay Road area of Leysdown-on-Sea on Sunday evening.

The teens were arrested the next day on suspicion of murder.

The trio, who are all from London, were charged with murder on Tuesday.

They were remanded in custody to appear at Medway Magistrates’ Court on Wednesday.

A 12-year-old girl, arrested on Tuesday in Basildon, Essex, is still in custody, Kent Police said.

On Monday, a police cordon could be seen in a large clearing behind the beach in the Leysdown-on-Sea resort, in front of a caravan park.

Specialist officers brought out a sniffer dog at the crime scene.

They also investigated in Leysdown-on-Sea town centre, near the arcade.

The fire service arrived on Tuesday afternoon to remove their equipment while the police officers took down their cordon.

Locals have called the incident “shocking”, and many have said that “nothing ever happens” in the area.

A shopkeeper, working at Oasis Stores across the road from the incident, said he had run out to help after his wife said someone was having a heart attack.

He said that Mr Cashford was “just here for holidays”.

An air ambulance was called to the scene after the alleged attack and Mr Cashford was pronounced dead around 7pm on Sunday.

Detectives urged any witnesses who have not yet spoken to the police to contact them.

Aanyone with information should contact the major crime unit via the major incident public portal or by phone on 01622 652006, quoting 10-1384.

Reports can also be made anonymously via Crimestoppers.

Keir Starmer ‘plans rise in death tax’ to ease debt crisis

The Treasury is reportedly considering tightening the rules around inheritance tax as part of an attempt to plug a £50bn black hole in the public finances.

Officials are thought to be looking at scrapping the ‘seven year rule’ – which means that no tax is due on any gifts you give if you live for 7 years after giving them – to help address the UK’s multi-billion-pound fiscal shortfall left by Labour U-turns, higher borrowing and sluggish economic growth.

It comes amid growing pressure on Rachel Reeves to find innovative solutions to plug a gaping hole in the public purse – with mounting calls for either a wealth tax or an increase in income tax.

Inheritance tax, sometimes dubbed a ‘death tax’, is paid when a person’s estate is worth more than £325,000 when they die and is seen by many as a form of wealth tax in all but name.

Among the reported measures under consideration is a potential lifetime cap on gifts, sources told The Guardian, a move that would come as part of a broader review into how assets can be transferred before death to minimise inheritance tax liabilities.

Under current UK rules, gifts made more than seven years before a person’s death are exempt from inheritance tax.

Money given less than three years before is taxed at the full inheritance tax rate of 40 per cent, while gifts given between seven and three years has a “taper relief” tax, which is between eight and 32 per cent.

While it is understood that no decisions have yet been taken, the Treasury is thought to be considering a lifetime cap to limit the amount of money an individual can donate outside of inheritance tax, as well as reviewing rules around the taper rate.

Inheritance tax brought in a record £6.7bn in 2022-2023.

Although there have been growing calls for the introduction of some kind of wealth tax, there is a risk that expanding inheritance tax could spark backlash as it comes less than a year after the controversial decision to apply inheritance tax to cover agricultural properties – a move which triggered widespread public anger.

The latest reports come just days after the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr) piled pressure on the chancellor to come up with innovative solutions ahead of her budget in the autumn, predicting that Ms Reeves is now set for a £41.2 billion shortfall on her “stability rule” in 2029-2030.

In order to restore the £9.9bn buffer the government has maintained since last year’s Budget, the chancellor must therefore raise a total of £51.1bn.

After a swathe of spending cuts squeezing departmental budgets at the last spending review, tax rises are the more likely option – despite the chancellor’s promise not to come back for more major rises after she unveiled a £40bn package of increases in her first budget last year.

Last month, ex-shadow chancellor Anneliese Dodds urged the government to consider a wealth tax, pointing to work undertaken by the Commission on Wealth Tax.

“They looked at the operation of lots of different wealth tax. They looked at all of that evidence and set out how it would be possible to deliver something like that in a UK context”, she told Sky.

“I would hope that the Treasury is considering that kind of evidence as well as other changes that have been put forward.

“We’ve seen the deputy leader of the Labour Party, for example, put forward suggestions. I think it’s important for all of those to be considered now.”

It comes after a memo leaked earlier this year showed Angela Rayner suggesting eight wealth taxes on the super-rich and corporations in a move supporters described as the “progressive alternative”.

A Treasury spokesperson said: “As set out in the plan for change, the best way to strengthen public finances is by growing the economy – which is our focus. Changes to tax and spend policy are not the only ways of doing this, as seen with our planning reforms, which are expected to grow the economy by £6.8bn and cut borrowing by £3.4bn.

“We are committed to keeping taxes for working people as low as possible, which is why at last autumn’s budget we protected working people’s payslips and kept our promise not to raise the basic, higher or additional rates of income tax, employee national insurance or VAT.”

Who are the right-wingers joining JD Vance on his Cotswolds holiday?

US Vice President JD Vance is causing a stir as he holidays in the Cotswolds, as his huge security team and protests against his visit disrupt the quiet life of villagers.

Not only did his high-profile visit cause chaos at high-end Cotswolds farm-shop, Daylesford – owned by Tory donor Lady Bamford – the US vice president has also sparked rumours of tensions in the Tory party after choosing to meet with shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick instead of party leader Kemi Badenoch.

Days earlier, Mr Vance and his family started their UK getaway with David Lammy at Chevening, the foreign secretary’s grace-and-favour country estate in Kent.

But Mr Jenrick isn’t the only right-wing figure to be wined and dined by the Republican during his stay, with Mr Vance also having reportedly met with Reform UK leader Nigel Farage for breakfast. Here, The Independent takes a look at all the right-wing figures Mr Vance has met with during his break.

JD Vance is said to have met Nigel Farage for breakfast on Wednesday morning, after hosting a barbecue the night before at the Grade II-listed manor house where he is staying in the tiny hamlet of Dean, near Chipping Norton, Oxfordshire.

The US vice president has taken a growing interest in Reform UK in recent months, with reports from July saying he had asked the UK’s ambassador to the US, Peter Mandelson: “So what’s going on with Reform? I see that they’re doing very well.”

Mr Farage has always had a strong relationship with President Donald Trump – although it appears to have cooled this year, initially sparking speculation he may not end up meeting with Mr Vance.

Mr Vance also met with Robert Jenrick – seen as a key challenger to Kemi Badenoch – during his holiday in the UK, inviting the shadow justice secretary to meet him before a drinks event on Tuesday.

While the invite sparked rumours Mr Vance had given Mrs Badenoch the cold shoulder, a Conservative spokesman said the party leader’s team had spoken to Mr Vance’s but that “scheduling” had proved difficult for the pair to meet.

Taylor Van Kirk, Mr Vance’s press secretary, said the VP “specifically tried to see Kemi Badenoch, a friend of his, but a meeting was not possible due to their conflicting schedules”.

Former leadership contender Mr Jenrick has strayed well beyond his justice brief in recent months, building a prominent social media presence with campaigns on a range of issues, from the impact of immigration on housing to tackling fare-dodgers on the London Underground.

He and the vice-president have voiced similar concerns about the erosion of freedom of speech, as well as opposition to equality, diversity and inclusion initiatives.

James Orr – a Cambridge philosopher who has been influential in the growth of the national conservative movement in Britain – attended a barbecue hosted by Mr Vance at his Cotswolds holiday residence on Tuesday, alongside several other right-wing figures.

Mr Vance and Mr Orr became close friends in 2019, after the Republican politician converted to Catholicism, with the pair sharing an interest in faith and conservative politics.

“We hit it off on long walks and exchanging ideas about the state of the world”, Mr Orr told Politico last year.

The academic has sparked controversy for his views on LGBTQ+ issues and family life, previously claiming that sexual education in the UK had been outsourced to “rainbow activists”, who show children material “too graphic to even publish in newspapers.” He has also claimed that diversity in Britain is a “debilitating weakness”.

Apprentice star Thomas Skinner also attended the barbecue alongside Mr Orr. The pair struck up an unlikely friendship after talking on the social media site X, and it culminated in Mr Skinner being invited to join Mr Vance at his holiday home in the Cotswolds.

Mr Vance previously backed Mr Skinner on X after the 34-year-old reality star claimed he had received “death threats” and “vile comments about my children” after he made a series of posts saying “something’s gone wrong” in the UK and “there is nothing wrong with being proud of where you’re from”.

In separate posts, Mr Skinner argued it was “not far-right” to be “flying your flag and loving your country”.

On Tuesday evening, he shared a picture of himself and Mr Vance after the barbecue, saying: “Cracking night in the beautiful English countryside with JD, his friends and family. Once in a lifetime.”

Tory MP Danny Kruger was also on the guest list for Tuesday’s barbecue, an MP who has been a strong proponent of traditional family values. He sparked controversy in 2022 after saying women shouldn’t have an “absolute right to bodily autonomy” when it comes to abortion in a debate about female reproductive rights in the United States.

He also told a conservative conference in 2023 that marriages between men and women were “the only possible basis for a safe and successful society”. They prompted then-prime minister Rishi Sunak to distance himself from the comments amid concern over their implications for LGBTQ+ people.

Met Office issues thunderstorm weather warning after heatwave

Yellow weather warnings for thunderstorms have been issued across parts of the UK in the aftermath of the fourth heatwave of the summer.

Forecasters say parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland could see “heavy showers and thunderstorms” on Wednesday evening and into Thursday. The Met Office is warning of potential disruption to roads and public transport during the wet weather, with as much as 50mm of rainfall possible in some areas.

It comes after scorching temperatures across the country on Monday and Tuesday, with some areas seeing the mercury climb above 33C in the hottest places.

The yellow weather warning is in place from 2pm until midnight on Wednesday across swathes of Scotland, including Aberdeenshire, Dundee, Edinburgh, East Lothian, and Glasgow. A second thunderstorm follows immediately afterwards, covering much of central and eastern Northern Ireland, as well as Scotland, until 10pm on Thursday.

Forecasters said those living in the affected areas should be prepared for heavy rainfall, warning hail and gusty winds are also possible. They added drivers should prepare for “difficult driving conditions” and some road closures due to the storms.

People have also been warned communities could become cut off by flooded roads, with those in areas prone to flash flooding advised to prepare a flood plan and emergency flood kit.

The Met Office said: “Whilst most areas will remain dry, a few isolated to well-scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms could develop on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Where these occur, some places could receive 20mm to 30 mm in less than an hour, with very localised totals in excess of 50mm possible if storms repeatedly affect the same areas.

“The most intense thunderstorms could produce large hail and gusty winds. Showers and thunderstorms will tend to ease mid to late evening, but may linger over Orkney and the far north of mainland Scotland into the first part of the night.”

Forecasters said there was a “slight chance” of power cuts causing loss of service to some homes and businesses. To prepare, they said people should “consider gathering torches and batteries, a mobile phone power pack and other essential items”.

People have also been warned of a potential “danger to life” caused by a “small chance of fast-flowing or deep floodwater”.

The Met Office said heavy showers and thunderstorms were also expected to develop on Thursday morning.

“Further scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are then likely to develop on Thursday afternoon and evening across portions of central and eastern Scotland in particular,” the forecaster said. “These will be rather slow-moving, potentially giving isolated accumulations of 40 to 60 mm in an hour, with a higher likelihood of some impacts from surface water flooding.

“Showers and thunderstorms should slowly decay during the mid to late evening.”

Warm and sunny weather is forecast across much of the UK in the run-up to the weekend, with London set to see highs of 29C on Wednesday and Thursday.

Sunny and dry conditions are expected to last into next week in the south of England, with skies turning greyer from Monday further north.

Trump sends National Guard to DC as mayor attacks ‘authoritarian push’

The National Guard were deployed on the streets of Washington, D.C., on Tuesday night as part of President Donald Trump’s promise to make the capital the safest city in the world.

The operation came after 850 federal agents and federalized Metropolitan Police went out on patrol the night before.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said during a briefing that those officers “made a total of 23 arrests,” adding: “These arrests consisted of homicide, firearms offenses, possession with intent to distribute narcotics, fair evasion, lewd acts, stalking, possession of a high capacity magazine… driving under the influence, reckless driving, and a bench warrant.”

Democrats have lambasted Trump for seizing control of the city’s police force, rejecting his insistence that street crime is “out of control” given that data for the last two years shows a steep decline.

D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser decried Trump’s measures as an “authoritarian push” on Tuesday and urged the local community to “jump in” to “protect our home rule.”

The president introduced his plan on Monday by declaring the capital was in need of “liberation” from “violent gangs and bloodthirsty criminals, roving mobs of wild youth, drugged-out maniacs and homeless people.”

Jet, Set, Glow: How to turn pre-flight time into a wellness ritual

The airport might not be the first place you think of when you think about wellness, but believe me, you can hone healthy habits just about anywhere. Feeling well is about small incremental changes that are easy to manage and I’ve got plenty of tips on how to apply these ahead of a holiday.

Part of my job is travelling to health retreats around the world so there are a few things I do when I arrive at Heathrow to prepare me for this. Read on for my tips on how to transform waiting at your gate into a wellness ritual.

There are great wellness wins to be found in Duty-Free if you know where to look. Discounted skincare? Yes please. I’ll always head to the World Duty Free stores to stock up on my flight favourites to hydrate, protect and soothe stressed out skin and wellness tools to fight jet-lag and keep my healthy habits up on the other side.

Don’t believe what you see on TikTok – you don’t want to be putting on a load of skincare and facemasks on a plane. Dermatologists agree that less is more, so I pick up one of Aesop’s simple Venturer kits and use it as soon as I’m on the plane. The mouthwash and deodorant contain no nasties and the natural scents soothe the nervous system.

I also head to the Charlotte Tilbury counter to make the most of the deals there. The Magic Cream is gentle and hydrating so I use it on the plane once I’ve taken any make up off to stop my skin drying out in transit. I also usually pick up an In-Flight Hydrate, Protect and Glow kit, which contains a hydrating travel-sized mist, primer and lip oil.

If you’re concerned about your circulation on a flight, you can find incredible ayurvedic massage tools and neurocosmetic oils from Mauli Rituals to give the brain and skin a boost while you’re waiting to board and in flight. The brand’s bath salts are great for jet lag recovery too.

I slather hand cream on to prevent dryness while I’m in air conditioned spaces so I also make a beeline for L’Occitane products while I’m in the World Duty Free store – the minis are great for travelling and there are some cute travel exclusives available, such as the Shea Travel Must Have’s Set. Elemis also does a great selection of minis. If you don’t want to bring your entire skincare routine on holiday, opt for the whole Elemis protocol in minis in a travel exclusive set for a gentle hydrating pro‑collagen fix.

You can reserve your products online up to 30 days before your trip, so rather than stressing about what’s in stock or turning up without a clue, I recommend pre-ordering and heading straight to the desk for what you need. Then enjoy a bit of a browse. Stress isn’t great for you at any time, let alone when you travel so don’t stress yourself out by spending too long looking for what you need and having to run to your gate.

I recommend pre-ordering the Aesop kit, Charlotte Tilbury skincare or Mauli Rituals’ travel-size oils. It’s also worth looking for travel-exclusive offers and sets. The Charlotte Tilbury, Elemis and Clinique travel sets are often much better value than high street versions

There are a host of other stores I like to visit for essentials when I arrive at Heathrow and Boots is obviously one of them. This is where I find all my supplements – magnesium for sleep and muscle tension, electrolytes to maintain hydration while travelling and probiotics or digestive enzymes to keep my gut happy.

I also head to the Rituals store for more aromatherapy goodness but usually I’ll have already stocked up in World Duty-Free. One thing I won’t have found in Duty-Free is clothing, so I go to Lululemon for buttery-soft comfies to wear on the plane. Of course, no airport visit is complete without popping into WH Smiths for a book – next on my list is Genius Gut by Dr Emily Leeming.

Did you know that Terminal 2 and Terminal 5 both offer quiet areas for stretching? This is a must if you’re going to be sitting down for ages on your flight. A quick stretch or yoga session helps to alleviate tight hips, back and neck pain and avoid swelling – especially if you do it before you board and after you land.

Compression socks can also help with swelling and improve your circulation but it’s great to wake the body up too. Try ankle rolls, neck rotations, legs up the wall and cat-cow stretches. You can also use this time to use your Mauli Rituals massage tools to boost circulation and get your muscles nice and relaxed before having to sit still for an extended period.

Even if you’re flying economy, you can also book into lounges like Plaza Premium or No1 Lounge for a fee. Many include quiet zones, hot food, showers and complimentary herbal teas. Terminal 5 also has a spa inside some lounges like the Sofitel Heathrow if you’re really in need of some downtime whilst passing through the airport, perhaps for a connecting flight.

There are so many eateries and shops I recommend at Heathrow, you just have to know where to look for the healthiest finds. Eating high protein and fibre options will mean you stay fuller for longer and feel comfortable on your flight. You might also want to think about whether you plan to sleep on the plane or not, and either go for foods and drinks that will relax you, or give you an energy boost, depending on your plans.

I’ll always go for a high protein breakfast from Pret over a fry up at ‘spoons. I also love their ginger shots for an extra immunity boost before breathing in aeroplane air.

If I want to feel awake and invigorated, I’ll go for a juice and a matcha from Joe and the Juice. Leon is a great shout if you want something more filling that won’t leave you feeling sluggish – think fast, fresh options including quinoa bowls, grilled chicken, and veggie pots.

For a sit-down meal, head to Giraffe for global-inspired meals with veggie options, smoothies and herbal teas. My all-time favourite spot is Itsu for sushi, miso soup, edamame and gut-friendly options that won’t leave me feeling bloated or uncomfortable during the flight.

Then I’ll stock up on snacks from M&S food for the plane – fresh fruit, nuts and coconut water for hydration. Eating mineral-rich food like this and staying hydrated can help lessen jet lag.

Heathrow has water refill stations in every terminal after security. Staying hydrated is one of the easiest ways to reduce jet lag, boost focus, and support digestion—especially important if you’re flying long haul. I fill mine up with filtered water and then drink it before I go through security. On the other side it’s easy to refill your bottle or buy a new bottle of filtered water.

You can also bring your own herbal tea bags, electrolytes and soothing adaptogenic drinks from home. Most come in travel-size sachets and all you have to do is politely ask any coffee shop or restaurant for hot or cold water in a takeaway cup or your reusable cup to mix them up.

I always create a personal ritual to feel grounded whilst I’m in an airport. They can be busy frenetic places and you might already feel tired from an early start. I like to do a guided meditation (there are plenty of free ones on Spotify) with my headphones on while I’m sitting down paired with some box breathing exercises. I also do it again once I’m in my seat on the plane. This relaxes the nervous system and gets you into a more positive mental state. It’s great for alleviating any stress, preparing you for any stressful or challenging situations or calming your nerves if you happen to be a nervous flyer.

You can also use your aromatherapy oils, a rollerball or a spray to soothe your senses and reset. Just be mindful of other people around you if you’re spraying something. I also try to use the opportunity of time spent waiting at my gate to read a book, instead of doom-scrolling on my phone. If I’m doing this, I pop my earplugs in to drown out the noise around me – my favourites are from Loop. If you prefer to take in your surroundings, pop your headphones on and listen to a soothing or uplifting playlist. I like to curate these before I head to the airport to help me get into the right headspace when I need it.

If you do suffer with anxiety around crowds, feel nervous about flying or just want to feel more grounded, you can practice saying a few affirmations and mantras for confidence and calm. This could be something as simple as: “I am safe and I travel with ease”.

Armed with all these tips you’ll hopefully be able to board your flight feeling relaxed, prepared and excited to travel to destinations far and wide. Though the unknown can be stressful, there are plenty of ways to feel more optimistic and resilient if we know how to take better care of ourselves, wherever we are.

Find out more about Heathrow’s Redefine Your Beauty campaign, including treatment menus, participating brands and exclusive offers here.

JK Rowling reignites row with Nicola Sturgeon in foul-mouthed ‘review’ of her memoir

JK Rowling has reignited her feud with Nicola Sturgeon as she blasted her new autobiography in a ‘review’ posted on social media.

The author and gender critical activist posted a picture of scribbled-on pages of ‘Frankly’, which was released this week, on X in a continuation of their long-standing clash over the issue of transgender rights.

On one page, she scrawled “Are you f***ing kidding me???” over a page where she accused Ms Sturgeon of “opining on the need to make the ‘public sphere’ safe for women and girls”. It comes after years of tension between the pair during heated rows over Scotland’s approach to trans rights.

In a post on X, Ms Rowling wrote: “Annotating as I read to review. Might auction my scribbled-on copy, proceeds to go to @ForWomenScot. NB: nobody who’s offended by swearing should bid.”

While in office, the former first minister doggedly attempted to push through legislation creating a self-identification system for people who want to change gender, which was eventually blocked by the UK government. The ensuing debate partly led to her resignation as first minister in February 2023.

Following the proposed reforms in 2022, Ms Rowling wore a t-shirt calling Sturgeon a “destroyer of women’s rights”. Ms Sturgeon later called for both sides of the debate to “treat each other with respect”.

In her book she recalled the incident, after which she received a barrage of abuse, writing: “It was deeply ironic that those who subjected me to this level of hatred and misogynistic abuse often claimed to be doing so in the interests of women’s safety.”

They have clashed on a number of other occasions, including after the Supreme Court judgement in April that the legal definition of a woman refers to biological sex.

Ms Sturgeon refused to comment on the decision, with Ms Rowling later sharing a social media post including a photograph of the SNP leader in the gym branding her “Pontius Pilates”, an apparent biblical reference accusing her of shirking responsibility.

Speaking about the trans rights row that dominated her final few months in office in her memoir, Ms Sturgeon called it a time of “division and rancour”. She added that while she respected legitimate concerns about women’s spaces, the debate had been “hijacked by voices on the far right”.

“The inconvenient truth”, she argued, is that “many of the most vocal deriders of trans rights, when the surface is scratched, turn out to be raging homophobes too. Some are also racists. And ironically … more than a few are also deeply misogynist.”

However, she said she would have changed her approach to the issue with hindsight, and that while she still believes in the gender recognition reforms, she wishes she had aimed for more of a consensus on the issue.

Is Keir Starmer just one crisis away from a Labour coup?

On the Whitehall grapevine, Wes Streeting is seen as a rare success story for the government: a good communicator who is starting to deliver the change Keir Starmer promised.

The chatter in Streeting’s health department predicts his next stop will be 10 Downing Street. However, the health secretary might face an uphill battle to win over the Labour grassroots in the “one member, one vote” ballot that chooses the party’s leader. Even some of his admirers suspect he might be too right wing, or “Blairite”, for many of them.

Whitehall officials are less flattering about other cabinet ministers. Rachel Reeves’s autumn Budget is described by some as her “last shot”. In other words, if she can’t break out of the doom loop of “one-off” tax rises to meet her fiscal rules, followed by exactly the same medicine in her next Budget, Starmer might be looking for a new chancellor next year.

The prime minister is not immune to speculation about his future. Even his allies admit he cannot afford a repeat of his bad first year on the domestic front. “Another crisis like the welfare climbdown and it would surely be curtains,” one Labour MP told me. Angela Rayner told last month’s meeting of Labour’s national executive committee: “Announcements are not enough: people have to see real improvements in their lives, soon.” Significantly, the deputy prime minister added: “The next 12 months will decide whether Labour wins a second term.”

She wasn’t talking behind Starmer’s back; he was in the room.

Few ministers would disagree with her “one more year” theory. Starmer’s problem is that first impressions of a government, prime minister or party leader usually stick, and Labour and his party’s dire ratings are getting worse.

Although Rayner didn’t say it, the logical consequence of her statement is that if Starmer hasn’t turned things round by next summer, the question of whether he should lead the party into the next general election will become a live one. The spark might be poor results in next May’s mid-term elections, when Labour could lose out to the SNP in the Scottish parliament, to Reform UK in the Welsh parliament, and to the Greens and Jeremy Corbyn’s new socialist party in English local authorities.

Indeed, there’s already gossip in Labour land about Starmer’s future, which is fully in line with Labour’s traditions.

The party doesn’t kill its leaders like the Conservatives, but makes up for that by debating endlessly in private who would take over if their leader fell under a No 12 bus in Whitehall. Labour has more in common with the TV series Succession than it would care to admit.

Despite Streeting’s Whitehall fan club, the current strong favourite to succeed Starmer is Rayner. Although she insists she doesn’t want the top job, it would be very hard to stick to that if it were likely to land in her lap.

Rayner is performing a delicate balancing act well. She has carved out a position slightly to the left of Starmer, which is where Labour’s heart beats. At the same time, she is publicly loyal to the PM; rocking the boat could damage her succession prospects.

In theory, jittery Labour backbenchers, fearing they will lose their seats, could mount a coup against Starmer. In practice, they would need cabinet-level support. How loyal would the cabinet be if the PM came under real pressure? One largely forgotten factor is that only eight of today’s 22-strong cabinet nominated Starmer in the 2020 Labour leadership contest – in other words, he was their first choice. They were: Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, John Healey, David Lammy, Ed Miliband, Bridget Phillipson, Steve Reed and Jonathan Reynolds.

That doesn’t mean other ministers would dump Starmer in the event of a leadership crisis. When a leader is in real trouble, any politician is bound to consider self-interest. If Rayner still looked a shoo-in, it would suit those who don’t want her to succeed Starmer to rally behind him rather than pull the rug. “Wes [Streeting], Yvette [Cooper] and other big beasts would bolster Keir rather than let Angie [Rayner] take over,” one Labour insider told me. Despite that, it is no longer certain that Starmer will lead his party into the next election.

Starmer will soon reflect on his planned fightback during a much-needed holiday, which, knowing his wretched luck when it comes to taking a break, will probably be interrupted by the need to talk to other world leaders about Ukraine and Gaza.

The first test of whether Starmer can turn the domestic tide will come in what is becoming an increasingly important speech to the Labour conference in Liverpool next month. “It’s going to be a hard slog from now on,” one close ally admitted.