Ghislaine Maxwell rejects Andrew claims and calls infamous picture ‘literally a fake’

Ghislaine Maxwell has repeated her claim that a photograph showing Prince Andrew with Virginia Giuffre is “fake”.

In an interview with the US Department of Justice, conducted last month, Maxwell said: “I believe it’s literally a fake photo.”

The imprisoned former girlfriend of Jeffrey Epstein also dismissed as “rubbish” Giuffre’s claims that she was paid to have a relationship with Prince Andrew and that he had sex with her at Maxwell’s London home.

The disgraced socialite claimed one of the motives behind the story was to attack the Royal Family.

Maxwell was interviewed by the deputy attorney general, Todd Blanche, over two days in Tallahassee, Florida – just a week before being moved to a minimum-security prison camp in Bryan, Texas.

While the name at the centre of the discussion on Prince Andrew had been redacted, it is circumstantially highly likely to be Giuffre, given the conversation, as well as the timelines and mention of an infamous photograph.

It is not the first time she has questioned the photograph. During a 2023 interview with TalkTV, after having been sentenced to 20 years in a Florida prison, she said: “It’s a fake. I don’t believe it’s real for a second, in fact I’m sure it’s not.

“Well, there’s never been an original and further, there’s no photograph, and I’ve only ever seen a photocopy of it.”

The photograph, said to have been taken at Maxwell’s London home in 2001, shows the Duke of York with his arm around Giuffre, who was then 17. Maxwell can be seen smiling in the background. The picture has been central to allegations made against Andrew, which he has strongly denied.

Questions over the photograph’s authenticity have surfaced repeatedly. Prior to her death last year, Giuffre had insisted it was genuine and said she gave the original to the FBI.

Photographic experts have told various media outlets that there is no clear evidence that it has been doctored.

Earlier in the transcript from July’s interview, Maxwell also denied that Andrew could have had sex with Ms Giuffre because her London house was too small.

“The idea of him doing anything of that nature in my house, that’s the size of this room, is so mind-blowingly not conceivable to me,” she said.

The remarks are the latest in a series of denials Maxwell has issued since being convicted in 2021 of trafficking underage girls for Epstein, the financier and sex offender who died in a New York jail in 2019.

Prince Andrew has always denied any wrongdoing. In 2022, he reached a financial settlement with Giuffre in a US civil case without admitting liability.

His legal team at the time said he was making the settlement in order to avoid prolonging the case and to allow him to dedicate himself to public service.

In the interview, Maxwell also described the first time that Epstein and Andrew became acquainted, claiming that she had never thought about introducing them as they were like “chalk and cheese”.

She said the pair met in the early 2000s “either in Nantucket or the Vineyard”, at an event separate to Maxwell, and that they quickly became close, making her feel “left out”.

Maxwell also claimed that it was Sarah Ferguson who had introduced Epstein and Andrew, after she met with the financier in the Bahamas. She described accusations that she was the one to introduce them as a “flat untruth”.

Family of missing woman found living among lost ‘African’ tribe in Scottish forest speak out

A missing Texas woman found living with the self-proclaimed leaders of a lost “African” tribe in a Scottish forest insists she is there by her own free will, despite her family’s fears she is lost to the sect forever.

Kaura Taylor was recently found living in the woods with the group after vanishing from her home three months ago, leaving relatives distraught.

“It is very stressful, and difficult. It breaks our heart. We’re overly concerned about Kaura, but she doesn’t think anyone is concerned about her,” Taylor’s aunt Teri Allen told The Independent.

In a message posted to Facebook after 21-year-old Taylor, mother to a one-year-old child who she took with her to Scotland, said that she was not missing lashed out at reports she “disappeared.”

“I’m very happy with my King and Queen, I was never missing, I fled a very abusive, toxic family,” Taylor wrote, following up with a video message telling U.K. authorities to leave her alone in the woods in Jedburgh, 40 miles south of Edinburgh. She added that she is “an adult, not a helpless child.”

However, Allen on Thursday pushed back stridently against those assertions, describing her niece’s younger years as “very sheltered and protected.”

She said Taylor “was brought up in church, but not their religion. Not this thing that they got going. It’s a bunch of hogwash.”

Speaking to The Independent from her Dallas-area home, Allen said Taylor kept it “totally hidden from the family” when she began communicating in 2023 with so-called Kingdom of Kubala leader King Atehene, a former opera singer and PR agent from Ghana whose real name is Kofi Offeh, and his wife Jean Gasho, who now goes by Queen Nandi.

Queen Nandi did not respond to a request for comment. An email seeking comment from King Atehene bounced back as undeliverable.

The Kingdom of Kubala claims to be a lost Hebrew tribe that aims to retake the land they say was expropriated when Queen Elizabeth I expelled native black Jacobites from England in the 1590s.

The trio in Jedburgh hope to add to their numbers by bringing other supposedly lost tribes back to their purported ancestral homeland.

Allen said she thinks Taylor, who now answers to Asnat of Atehene, handmaiden of Queen Nandi, discovered the group online through a high school classmate.

She then cut herself off very suddenly from loved ones, refusing to attend family gatherings and stopped celebrating holidays altogether, Allen recalled.

At the time, Taylor was living with her aunt Vandora Skinner, Allen’s sister.

In a separate interview with The Independent, Skinner said: “She went missing in May. But she wasn’t missing at all, she left to go live with these people.”

Taylor, who lived with Skinner during her teenage years, was, according to her aunt, a “very very unruly” teen who could be “very disrespectful,” but was always given a lot of latitude at home.

“She lived in a four-bedroom house, with her own room, and maybe I shouldn’t have been as light on her as I was,” Skinner said. “I allowed her boyfriends to come over, but maybe I shouldn’t have. But I did get her to graduate high school. ”

Taylor tried to get her then-boyfriend to relocate to the Scottish forest with her, but he was turned off by King Atehene and Queen Nandi’s “ungodly rituals” and decided against it, according to Skinner. The 21-year-old then ended the relationship and in May headed to Scotland with her then-eight-month-old daughter, whose father was no longer in the picture, Skinner said.

About two days later, Skinner said Taylor texted her, saying, “We had to get out and explore a little bit.” When Skinner asked where she was, she didn’t get a response.

“She said she would have to call me when she got connected to wifi, but then I never heard from her again,” Skinner said.

Skinner did, however, hear from Taylor’s best friend, who spoke to her every day. So when the friend started asking Skinner about Taylor, she said she knew something wasn’t quite right.

The friend told Skinner that Taylor had talked about going to live with “these people,” but that she didn’t know anything further.

“And I said, ‘What people?’ And they said they didn’t know, so I started to call around,” Skinner went on. “I called her ex-boyfriend and that’s when he told me about the [Kingdom’s] Facebook page and that she said she was going to the U.K. I looked up the Facebook page and sure enough, there she was.”

Skinner immediately told Allen, who passed the news along to their other sister, Taylor’s mother.

“She thought it was photoshopped, but it turned out to be true,” Skinner said.

Skinner then began searching Facebook for more information, and saw that Atehene and Nandi had previously set up an almost identical living situation with another young American woman.

What really upset Skinner, she continued, was spotting Taylor in a video posted to the social network saying that while she wasn’t actually married to King Atehene, she still considered herself to be his second wife.

“Now she’s talking about, she’s married to this man and he can have as many wives as he wants?” Skinner said in disbelief.

Skinner eventually connected with a Jedburgh-area resident in the comments section beneath a news article about the group. The couple had fought a losing battle against eviction from their patch of woods.

The Jedburgh resident suggested Skinner contact Scottish police, and gave her a number, so she reported Taylor and her daughter, who turned a year old in June, missing.

Taylor is believed to have flown to the U.K. on May 25 on a six-month tourist visa that would mean her time there is due to end in November, after then her aunts hope she’ll be forced to leave the country and return home to Texas.

Extraordinary Chappell Roan should have headlined Reading Festival

Chappell Roan arrives on the main stage at Reading Festival in a rustle of black taffeta and scarlet silk, bat fascinator perched atop her flaming locks. For all the looming grandeur of her set, which could be the castle of a Disney villain or a Meatloaf music video, it’s a strangely muted entrance. Blame it on the sound, which unless you’re plonked directly in front of the speakers, is a little muddy; the chatter of teenage fans on the outskirts actually threatens to drown out her slinky opener, “Super Graphic Ultra Modern Girl”.

When it comes to one of pop’s biggest breakout stars in a decade, though, nothing stays muted for long. Leading a band that probably evens out the always-uneven gender split at Reading by 10 per cent, she delivers each song with unmatched panache, striding about like a beatific queen to a tight setlist that is non-stop bangers. It’s the most alive the festival – best associated with feral teenagers, tents being set alight and Lord of the Flies-level anarchy – has felt all day. Yet the genteel and only mildly inebriated gaggles of youths are seemingly here for Roan and her alone, having earlier watched with polite bemusement as Australian actor Rebel Wilson rapped “Gangsta’s Paradise” with The Kooks for a scene from her next film.

That is, until Roan gets going. “Femininomenon”, her ode to sapphic sex, revs up the atmosphere with arched-eyebrow lyrics: “Dude, can you play a song with a f***ing beat?” the 90,000-strong crowd squeals along with her. “The Giver” is a joyous, country-fried update that puts Roan in the power seat: “You ain’t gotta tell me/ It’s just in my nature/ So take it like a taker/ ‘Cos baby I’m a giver.” Then she ignores her mother’s advice on “After Midnight”, twirling around with giddy abandon: “I’m feeling kinda freaky/ Maybe it’s the club lights/ I kinda wanna kiss your girlfriend if you don’t mind.”

How was Roan not booked as a headliner? It’s testament to the often short-sighted approach of UK festival bookers but also to the rapidity with which her star has ascended. The last time she toured the UK – less than a year ago – it was a short whirl around a dozen or so 3,000-capacity venues. Since then, she’s picked up a Grammy for Best New Artist and scored her first UK No 1 single, the swooning jangle-pop ballad “The Subway” (The Cure meets Mazzy Star). You feel slightly sorry for Reading’s actual Friday headliner, Irish artist Hozier, until you see the huge crowd that sticks around for his own, electrifying performance.

Much of Roan’s setlist is derived from her debut album, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess. Roan, who grew up in a Christian household in Willard, Missouri, became enraptured by the all-out spectacle of pop stars like Lady Gaga and Katy Perry. She moved to LA twice, having first slunk back when she was dropped by her first record label (not profitable enough… again with the industry’s short-sightedness). There, she was able to begin exploring her sexuality – a theme that transpires amid the electro-pop of “Naked in Manhattan”.

Speaking of naked: almost everything but the gloves come off for a sizzling cover of Heart’s “Barracuda” – only after she’s reminded the crowd of the routine for her original song “HOT TO GO”, her very own “YMCA”. While the Benson Boones of the world are still flogging the same Freddie Mercury pastiche, our best pop girls seem intent on celebrating their rock influences at live shows – see also Olivia Rodrigo bringing out Robert Smith at Glastonbury to sing “Friday I’m in Love”. And Roan’s band are about as rock’n’roll as it gets as they line up alongside her, a blur of velvet gowns and flailing hair.

Her versatile soprano sounds extraordinary – meltingly tender one moment, proud and ferocious the next – and she knows it. She sustains howls of ecstasy on “My Kink is Karma”, about the secret pleasures of revelling in an ex’s downfall, before she pares it all back to a gorgeous gossamer lilt on “Coffee” and “Picture You”, as enrapturing as the glitter that dusts her cheekbones.

There’s a clear dedication here not just to the art of the live show, but the high camp of it, a worthy successor to the Gagas and Madonnas of the world. Everything is dramatic; it’s impossible to look away as she flounces about to the queer celebration of “Pink Pony Club” or high-kicks her way across the stage to the kiss-off bop “Good Luck, Babe!”, fireworks crackling and spitting above her. And why would you want to? She’s a Femininomenon.

Britain felt safer for trans people in the 90s, says first trans judge

Britain felt like a safer place to be trans in the nineties than it does now, the UK’s first transgender judge has said, raising the alarm over what she sees as a backslide in attitudes towards trans people.

Giving her first interview since lawyers acting on her behalf began the process of taking the government to the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) over April’s bombshell Supreme Court ruling on biological sex, Dr Victoria McCloud expressed concern that the ruling could impact young trans people who are considering coming out.

“When I came out, things were bizarrely rather better. That was the Nineties – we didn’t really have any rights, but there was less of a climate of fear”, Dr McCloud tells The Independent.

The retired judge, who has been heralded as a symbol of the modern judiciary’s diversity, said she no longer sees the UK as a “safe place”.

“Since the decision was taken in Scotland, we’ve seen a declaration of genocidal intent made by the Lemkin Institute in relation to the United Kingdom to warn people about what’s going on. We’ve seen concerns from the United Nations and from the Council of Europe”, she says.

In June, the Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention and Human Security condemned “recent judicial and governmental developments” in Britain, which they said “attempt to harm transgender and intersex people by stripping them of privacy and segregating them as ‘others.’”

“The Lemkin Institute believes these moves are part of a broader process of erasure. It is not only government action but also the media narrative that has fuelled hostility to and debate about the humanity of trans and intersex people while ignoring their voices,” the body said.

Dr McCloud, who now lives in Ireland after leaving Britain in 2024, says she is “very cautious” when she returns to London – something she is doing more at present as she begins the process of challenging the judgment.

“I’m very cautious. When I come over, I don’t see it as a safe place to go. Lovely cis friends are great at helping me to stay out of risky situations where I might be confronted or even potentially assaulted, because, of course, my face is quite well known.

“I’m particularly at risk of becoming a target of some of the more extreme people from the gender critical ideological movement. And that’s a worry. But I think it’s important that I do carry on, and I do have to come back for things like media interviews and so on occasionally,” she said.

McCloud has set up the Trans Exile Network (TEN) to help other trans people who want to leave the country.

“There are families involved in that who are leaving the UK for the sake of their children. And that’s a really quite a large network, because there’s a lot of worry about the future of children and the messages that they’re getting”, she says.

Lawyers acting on behalf of Dr McCloud, 55, who stood down last year, filed an appeal in the ECHR last week arguing a breach of her rights under Article Six – the right to a fair and impartial hearing by an independent tribunal.

The judge claims the Supreme Court refused permission for her to intervene on how the case would affect herself and other trans people, saying they didn’t give any reason for it.

“Decisions about us that fundamentally change our rights shouldn’t be made without us.

“The case relates fundamentally to fairness. What’s known as Article Six, and it was a situation where nowhere throughout the whole of the case, trans people were heard or represented at all.”

Gender critical campaigners were elated after the ruling in April, hailing it as a victory which would protect the rights of biological women.

But speaking about the impact of the ruling, Dr McCloud said she is worried about how it has affected lesbian women, or other cis women who do not conform to feminine norms because of the new emphasis on subjective appearance.

“I’ve had lots of stories about people who are not trans being abused for being trans. It’s really common, and indeed, not just lesbian women, just anyone who’s maybe a tall woman or whatever.

“It’s leading, I think, to more abuse of non-trans people than it is to trans people, because most trans people actually are quite invisible – we go to quite a great length to be invisible, whereas people who are non-trans don’t see the need to do that. They’ve got a perfect right to be what they want.”

Dr McCloud, who retired in 2024, jokes that it is nice to “be the client for a change” – instead, letting her trans led legal team take the lead.

The first case in history to be brought by such a team, Dr McCloud is being represented by Oscar Davies, the UK’s first openly non-binary barrister and Olivia Campbell-Cavendish, the founder and executive director of the Trans Legal Clinic and the first black trans lawyer in the UK.

Her team expect the case to take between 12 and 18 months – but it could take up to seven years if it is not treated as a priority case by the ECHR.

The Supreme Court’s ruling has been praised by gender critical groups as being a victory for women, arguing it will help to protect single sex spaces.

Asked what she would say to cis women with fears about trans people entering single sex spaces, Dr McCloud said trans people were able to access single sex spaces for decades before the ruling, with no reported incidents.

“I do understand the fact that in theory, you could get a man who says, ‘I’m a woman’, and walks in and attacks someone, but they can walk in any anyway. Those aren’t transsexual people. They aren’t trans people, and it’s important to separate the two”, she says.

“In my case, for example, to get a gender recognition certificate, I have a medical diagnosis. I have medical expert reports. A court had to consider my case and evidence – so it’s very tightly regulated.”

Dr McCloud also points out that, statistically, trans people are “much more likely to be assaulted by non-trans people than the other way around”.

“There are very few of us. You’re very unlikely to actually run into one of us and those with gender recognition certificates – there’s only ever been 8,500 of us in a country of 66 million.”

Springboks bid to hit back after shock Australia defeat – live

After a shock defeat to Australia in their Rugby Championship opener, the Springboks will bid to hit back as they face the Wallabies again.

South Africa were stunned by 38 unanswered points from the visitors in Johannesburg as they let a 22-0 lead slip, leading to a week of introspection and anger internally. Rassie Erasmus shuffles his side significantly, with captain Siya Kolisi one of a number of significant injury absentees.

The Wallabies are also shorn of their skipper, Harry Wilson being managed after a bruising affair seven days ago. A hugely positive performance from Joe Schmidt’s side showed the confidence they had built in the British and Irish Lions series with Australia refusing to wilt despite a tricky start and roaring back to secure a famous result at Ellis Park. Can they go again to really establish themselves as tournament contenders?

Follow all of the latest from Cape Town with our live blog below:

Summer escapes made easy: find your perfect sunbreak fuss-free

When it comes to booking your summer getaway, finding the perfect break can sometimes feel like a bit of a challenge. Whether it’s a fun-packed family holiday, a romantic couples trip, an activity-filled solo break or a group trip where you need to tick everyone’s travel boxes, there’s a lot to consider, and a vast range of options to choose from. So it can be tricky knowing where to start.

To make it easier to plan your perfect break, holiday experts Travel Republic have you covered, whether you’re researching dream destinations or making last-minute plans. With over 20 years of travel know-how, plus big-name airlines, top hotels and exciting attractions – they make booking your next great value getaway easy, affordable and totally stress free.

From trending destinations to incredible money-saving deals and travel ideas tailored to you, Travel Republic has everything you need to find and book your perfect trip. On top of all that, they offer flexible payment plans, super low deposits, are ATOL protected and offer all the holiday extras you need such as car hire, airport parking, transfers and travel insurance.

Ready for some travel inspo? Here’s our guide to four diverse, versatile destinations that offer it all: dreamy beaches, family entertainment, culinary delights, active adventure, and history and culture by the spadeful.

With over 6000 islands and islets, 200 of which are inhabited, not to mention a culture-rich mainland, Greece definitely has something for every type of traveller. For couples, friends and singles looking to party, head to the clubs and beach parties of Ios, Zante (Zakynthos) or Mykonos – enjoy the growing foodie scene in the pretty white-washed, streets of Mykonos Town, while adrenaline junkies will feel at home on the water, with kitesurfing, windsurfing, scuba diving and jet skiing on offer. For sandy beaches and calm waters, book into the islands of Rhodes or the family friendly Kos. If chilling on the beach is your priority, some of the world’s best can be found in Crete or Halkidiki – sporty types take note of the 13km scenic coastal cycling route. Or head to Faliraki with the kids for banana boat rides, snorkelling and splashing about at Faliraki Waterpark.

History lovers won’t want to leave Greece: explore the archeological wonder that is the Athens Acropolis, walk the capital’s charming old Plaka neighbourhood and stop at one of the many local cafes to enjoy souvlaki, moussaka and gyros. For another UNESCO World Heritage Site, visit the island of Corfu’s Old Town and submerge yourself in a world of Venetian cobbled streets, fortresses and tunnels.

Whether you want the perfect package holiday with breathtaking beaches, buzzing bazaars and cafes on your city break or a boutique stay to explore a multitude of ancient ruins, Turkey has a dream holiday for everyone.

Istanbul will keep every generation entertained: visit the impressive Hagia Sophia and Blue Mosques, go haggling in the Grand Bazaar, then grab a traditional pide (folded pizza) and a Turkish tea before making a trip to the array of castles and fortresses. There’s also a zoo, aquarium and entertainment parks.

Turkey has an abundance of historical sites, with many accessible from top beach resorts such as Side and Izmir. Head to the Dalaman region, often referred to as the Turquoise Coast in reference to the picture-perfect Blue Lagoon beach. Make the short journey from Daylan town to the magnificent ancient port city of Kaunos, which dates back to the 9th century BC and be sure to go turtle spotting at the neighbouring İztuzu Beach. Thrill seekers should head to the nearby resort of Fethiye, to spy its rugged scenery and historic sites from a paraglider. While Marmaris offers everything from parties and waterparks to romance. Head inland to Anatolia to experience the ‘fairy chimney’ rock formations of Cappadocia from the skies in a hot air balloon — a true bucket list experience.For resorts that offer a bit of everything, choose Bodrum and Antalya for everything from Roman ruins, bazaars and nightclubs to yacht-filled marinas, waterparks and pristine beaches. Lots to keep little ones entertained, and party goers busy while couples can enjoy luxe adult-only hotels.

From the Costas to the Canaries and Barcelona to the Balearics, Spain really does have it all. If it’s a city break you’re after, choose the cosmopolitan capital of Madrid: take in art at the impressive Prado Museum, stroll through the peaceful Royal Botanic Gardens and tour the famous Bernabeu Stadium, home to the mighty Real Madrid. Or if you like beach vibes with your culture, opt for the city of Barcelona. Visit the Gothic Quarter for breathtaking architecture, marvel at the iconic Sagrada Família and enjoy tapas and cava in the narrow streets of the El Born district – home to the Moco and Picasso museums.

For full-on beach action, stay on the mainland and choose between Costa Blanca, Costa del Sol, Costa Brava or the ‘Golden Coast’ of Costa Dorada. Here,Salou is a good option for those looking for buzzing restaurants and bars, active types keen on coastal walks, kayaking and snorkelling and kids keen to mix rollercoasters and waterparks at PortAventura theme park.

If you’re more about ‘island life’ there’s no shortage of options: head to Ibiza or Majorca for parties galore and secluded beaches with crystalline waters or opt for one of the equally idyllic Canaries. For a break that feels out of this world, choose volcanic island Lanzarote, which offers pristine white sand beaches across the island, including the main holiday resorts of Puerto del Carmen, Playa de los Pocillos, Costa Teguise and Playa Blanca. The latter offers a wealth of bars and restaurants, waterparks, 5km promenade and lively marina with a daily market.

Dramatic coastlines with crystal clear waters, buzzing city life with pop-up restaurants and dolphin and whale watching for wildlife lovers are just some of what is on offer in Portugal, making it a must-visit for group and solo travellers alike. Head to the south coast for the holiday haven of the Algarve, home to some of Europe’s top beaches. There’s 30km of coastline to enjoy at Albufeira alone, peppered with beachfront family friendly and adult-only hotels. Be sure to explore the cobbled streets and palm tree-lined squares of the Old Town before settling down for local seafood specialities including the Cataplana stew. Want to get active? Hike the coastal Seven Hanging Valleys Trail for views of rock formations against the backdrop of turquoise waters. While nightlife lovers should head to the Algarve cities of Lagos and Faro for rooftop cocktails and tunes that play until the sun comes up.

For culture fans, head to capital city Lisbon for countless museums, galleries and beautiful historic buildings including the huge, Gothic Jerónimos Monastery, a UNESCO World Heritage Site. Lose yourself in the cobbled alleyways of the Old Town of Alfama and soak up the smells and tastes of Portuguese baking including the delicious Pastéis de Belém. Beach lovers worry not, you can have sand between your toes after a quick bus ride, while surf lovers can train it to Estoril or Cascais to catch some waves.

For more travel ideas, inspiration and great value getaways, visit Travel Republic

Trump gives Putin another deadline to agree Zelensky meeting

Donald Trump has suggested that he will give Vladimir Putin another two-week deadline to agree to peace talks with Volodymyr Zelensky.

Speaking to CNN, the US president said he will “know in two weeks what I’m going to do” after Moscow appeared to reject his plea for a meeting between the two leaders.

Earlier this week, Trump said he would let Putin and Zelensky make their own plans to meet, followed by a trilateral summit. Zelensky has accused Moscow of “doing anything” to avoid a summit between the two countries.

Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov cast doubt on the possibility of a meeting between Putin and Zelensky, saying an agenda was “not ready at all”.

In his interview with CNN, Trump repeated his two-week timeframe several times – a deadline he previously gave to the Russian president to avoid US sanctions.

“We’ll see what happens. I think in two weeks, we’ll know which way I’m going, because I’m going to go one way or the other, and they’ll learn which way.”

Warning hundreds could die if measles vaccine rates don’t improve

Hundreds of people could die in measles outbreaks in the next 20 years unless vaccination rates are dramatically improved, a top disease expert has warned.

Unvaccinated babies aged under 12 months would make up a significant proportion of 480 avoidable deaths over the next two decades, according to modelling by Imperial College London.

Katharina Hauck, a professor in health economics and deputy director of the university’s Jameel Institute, which led the research, suggested there could be two major outbreaks resulting in an additional 390,000 cases, based on a vaccination rate of around 90 per cent.

Current vaccination rates for the two doses required to provide protection against the highly contagious disease are around 85 per cent.

The warning comes after a child died and several others were left “seriously ill” at Liverpool’s Alder Hey Children’s Hospital after contracting measles, just days after health officials warned about an increase in cases due to people not being vaccinated.

The Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health said the decline in UK vaccination rates is “extremely concerning” and urged governments across the UK to “act urgently” to reverse the trend.

The researchers estimated that the costs of hospitalisation combined with productivity loss because people are unable to work due to measles could amount to £290m over 20 years.

The modelling is a worst-case scenario as it assumes no increased uptake in vaccinations and that health authorities take no action to improve rates in the event of an outbreak. It also assumes that 3 per cent of those who are unvaccinated are against vaccination in principle. However, several officials told The Independent that reasons for not being vaccinated vary, and a significant proportion of children who have not received the vaccine will have missed out because their parents either didn’t have access to it or haven’t prioritised it.

Since 1989, fewer than five people have died each year from measles, but experts warn that cases will rise if uptake doesn’t improve.

Professor Steve Turner, of the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health, said more must be done to improve vaccination rates. He said: “[Measles] poses a significant risk to everyone, putting immense strain on already struggling health services and also our economy. Paediatricians are particularly concerned about current measles outbreaks in the UK. Measles can be safely prevented by vaccination.”

Uptake for the first dose of the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine in children aged 2 years in England is 85.6 per cent, and uptake of the second dose at age 5 years is 85.5 per cent. This is below the 95 per cent target the World Health Organisation (WHO) says is necessary to achieve and maintain elimination of the virus.

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), whose remit is to prevent and respond to disease, warned in 2023 that cases in London could result in an outbreak affecting between 40,000 and 160,000 people if vaccination rates, which were at 74 per cent for both doses, did not improve.

The latest vaccination rates from January 2025 to March 2025 show that the figure has fallen further in the capital to just 70 per cent.

In 2023-24, NHS England implemented a nationwide catch-up campaign for MMR vaccinations for those who had missed out, which delivered an extra 180,000 vaccinations.

Dr Vanessa Saliba, a consultant epidemiologist at the UKHSA, said the agency’s 2023 projections are still valid as vaccination rates remain a concern.

She said: “You can argue on the size of the outbreaks, [but] we all agree you are going to see outbreaks. It’s not a surprise what we’re seeing at the moment, so it’s very important we work as a system to reverse that trend. If vaccine coverage is below 95 per cent, we will see cases, outbreaks, and potentially deaths.”

Dr Saliba said the UK has never met the WHO targets for measles, so the current outbreaks are not unexpected. The agency has brought forward the MMR jab schedule to allow children to receive it at 18 months instead of at three years old, in a bid to boost uptake.

The UKHSA said projections within the Imperial College research should be treated with caution as they assume no action would be taken by health authorities following an outbreak – something that is unlikely to be the case.

Professor Hauck said that poor vaccine uptake is due to a range of issues, including difficulties accessing primary care services that provide the vaccine, as well as misinformation. “Past medical accidents, and poor communication of the benefits of vaccination, have also caused vaccine hesitancy to spike in some areas, including parts of Britain,” she said.

She listed a number of interventions that can help promote vaccine uptake, including information campaigns, opening up access to vaccinations, and building trust in authorities.

However, Professor Hauck suggested there should also be “discussions” around measures such as mandating vaccination, which is done in other countries, and taxing the unvaccinated.

Azeem Majeed, a professor of primary care and public health at Imperial College, said the modelling “highlights the serious public health implications” of allowing vaccine coverage to remain below optimal levels.

“In a ‘no change’ scenario, with coverage at around 90 per cent, the population is vulnerable to large-scale outbreaks every few years, as the number of susceptible individuals builds up over time, and the main message to be taken is the need for sustained high vaccine coverage,” he said.

He added that the precise number of cases would depend on the assumptions made, and that the response mounted by the government and the NHS in the event of an outbreak would reduce the total number of infections and deaths.