Zero change. Zero growth. Zero hope of Rachel Reeves being rescued

Nothing has changed – and that is exactly Rachel Reeves’ problem.

This morning’s GDP figure suggested that the economy shrank imperceptibly in the month to July, by 0.044 per cent – which, to the nearest tenth of one per cent, is zero. And that was the official number published by the Office for National Statistics. This accident of rounding gives us a true picture, which is that of zero growth.

We cannot tell much from one month’s statistics, which bobble up and down before being revised, but the longer view tells us that the economy is bumping along, growing slowly, better than Germany and France and enough to keep us out of recession. But still slower than the average of the G7 countries, let alone Labour’s absurd target of the fastest growth in the G7.

The chancellor is running out of time before the autumn Budget. She set the date for as late as she could, on 26 November, in the hope that something would turn up. Instead, all she did was to allow a few more weeks of news stories speculating about tax rises, and “your money” features in the newspapers advising readers on how to take cash out of pension funds and avoid inheritance tax.

The timer starts running on Wednesday, 10 weeks before the Budget, when the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and the Treasury start exchanging forecasts and proposed tax and spending changes in order to arrive at an agreed position by the day itself.

Meanwhile, the traditional metaphor of Reeves as the superhero trapped in a spiked chamber with the walls closing in has never been more apt – although I have never understood why a baddie would choose that method to kill an opponent. At this point, we need a close-up of Reeves’ face, with the thought bubble, “How did I get here?” This allows a recap of the story so far.

She put taxes up in her first Budget, to plug just enough into the public services to avert collapse, and said she wouldn’t have to come back for more. This was quickly clarified to mean “more on the scale of the last Budget”. Then it became clear by stages that that was precisely what she was going to have to come back for. The public finances continued to deteriorate, requiring emergency savings from disability benefits, but these were thrown out by Labour MPs.

Meanwhile, the prime minister had taken fright at the cut in pensioners’ winter fuel payments and had U-turned on that. Then the bond markets had a minor panic and pushed up long-term interest rates. They calmed down again, but borrowing costs are still higher than the OBR expected them to be last year.

And now the run-in to the Budget is about to start and nothing has turned up to rescue the trapped superhero. Zero. Zero growth. Zero hope of rescue.

Reeves still faces the impossible dilemma that she has faced for months: to break her election promises not to raise the main taxes (income tax, national insurance, VAT and corporation tax), or to break her fiscal rules.

At this point, we need to pause the narrative again, leaving the walls getting ever closer, to explain to Labour Party members preparing to vote in the deputy leadership election that Reeves’ fiscal rules are not some arbitrary self-imposed constraint that can easily be cast aside. Anyone can quibble with the details, but the essence of the rules is the minimum needed to keep the public finances on an even keel. The financial markets need to know that the British government can sustain its debts, or they will not lend any more. The Liz Truss experience and the jitters in the bond markets a few weeks ago were two unmistakable warnings.

So that means Reeves is going to have to raise taxes substantially, and probably cut planned spending too. She may be able to avoid breaking manifesto pledges through a combination of lots of small measures and some sophistry – similar to the claim that employers’ national insurance contributions are not a tax on “working people”.

That is what I think she will do. A lot of commentators are advising her to go for a clean break and say that, unfortunately, the world economic outlook is so bad (because of Donald Trump’s tariffs) that the manifesto no longer applies and she will have to put up income tax or VAT. It is claimed that she would gain some respect from the voters for her honesty.

No chance. I know Labour is unpopular and her public opinion ratings have fallen into a deep hole, but that would guarantee that things stay that way. Muddling through with stealth taxes, new taxes and possibly defining anyone earning more than a certain amount “not a working person” will be almost as unpopular.

But it may be just enough to stop the walls from crushing Reeves the Indestructible, and allow her to live another day – maybe even until the Budget in 2026.

Trump says patience with Putin is ‘running out fast’

Donald Trump has said that his patience with Vladimir Putin is “running out fast”, days after Russian drones breached Polish airspace in an act of provocation.

Speaking to Fox News, the US president said: “It’s sort of running out and running out fast.“

Trump has given Putin several deadlines to take steps to end the three-year conflict, but so far has not imposed sanctions or other penalties on Moscow. The President met with his Russian counterpart for peace talks in Alaska last month which failed to produce an agreement.

His comments come after Poland‘s prime minister Donald Tusk on Friday rejected Trump’s claim that Russian drones breaching Polish airspace might have been “a mistake”.

Polish air defences and Nato aircraft sprung into action on Wednesday after 19 objects intruded Polish airspace including drones entering from Belarus. There have been no injury reports and Moscow has so far denied responsibility for the incident.

Nato on high alert as Russia begins military drills on Polish border

Russia and Belarus have begun major joint military drills on Nato’s eastern borders, sparking fresh security concerns just days after Poland shot down Russian attack drones that entered its airspace.

The manoeuvres, known as the “Zapad 2025” drills, began on Friday and will last until Tuesday, taking place close to Nato members’ Poland, Lithuania and Latvia’s borders.

Russian officials said the exercises are “the final stage of this year’s joint training between the two countries’ armies” and said troops will practice actions “at firing ranges in the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation and in the Baltic Sea and the Barents Sea”.

According to a statement on Russia’s Tass news service, the war games will simulate how the military would respond to “localised aggression” against Russia and Belarus.

Russian officials said the drills were planned before the provocation caused by the drones entering Polish airspace.

“On Friday, Russian-Belarusian manoeuvres, very aggressive from a military doctrine perspective, begin in Belarus, very close to the Polish border,” Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, told a government meeting, Reuters reports.

“Therefore, for national security reasons, we will close the border with Belarus, including railway crossings, in connection with the Zapad manoeuvres on Thursday at midnight.”

Interior minister Marcin Kierwinski said the border would only be reopened when the government was certain “there was no more threat to Polish citizens”.

After three-and-a-half years of war with Ukraine, and over 1 million casualties, the manoeuvres appear designed to demonstrate that the Russian military is still a major fighting force.

The escalation, close to Poland’s borders, has put Nato’s eastern flank on high alert, with Mr Tusk already warning that the country is closer to conflict than at any point since the Second World War.

Warsaw said it was deploying 40,000 troops along its borders with Belarus and Russia.

Mr Kierwinski said that the drills were directly aimed at Poland and the European Union. His remarks come after Mr Tusk said the drone attack “was not aimed only at Poland, but at European states as well”.

US president Donald Trump suggested the incursion of Russian attack drones into Poland could have been “a mistake”, but added, “I’m not happy about anything to do with the whole situation.”

But Mr Tusk responded on X, formerly known as Twitter, on Friday, saying: “We would also wish that the drone attack on Poland was a mistake. But it wasn’t. And we know it.”

The commencement of Russia’s military exercises comes as Ukraine’s foreign minister welcomed his Polish counterpart in Kyiv ahead of talks on shared security, EU and Nato accession and increasing pressure on Moscow on Friday.

“Against the backdrop of Russia’s escalation of terror against Ukraine and provocations against Poland, we stand firmly together,” Ukraine’s foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, wrote on X.

If Britain’s dragged into war, this is who could be called up first

When news broke this week of Russian drones encroaching on Polish airspace, it was not only Warsaw and Brussels that jolted to attention. Across Europe, and here in the UK, the grim question has once again surfaced: how prepared would we be, really, if the unthinkable happened and a major war broke out on our continent? Nato chiefs have been blunt, warning that civilians must be ready to play their part. And that raises a sobering thought: if war came, would we actually have the manpower for battle? Who would fight, and how quickly could civilians become soldiers?

This question may sound abstract in Britain in 2025. We have become used to thinking of our armed forces as a lean, professional volunteer body – a far cry from the days of mass mobilisation. Yet events in Poland, and Nato’s warnings about civilian preparedness, remind us that conflicts in Europe can escalate with terrifying speed. If deterrence failed, Britain would be faced with the reality of having to field far more troops than our current army of just over 70,000 regular full personnel could muster.

I have seen with my own eyes how civilians can, with the right training, be turned into credible fighting men. The Ministry of Defence (MoD) has been leading Operation Interflex, a multinational training programme for Ukrainian soldiers, since 2022. Initially a basic combat course for civilians, it has evolved into a seven-week programme with advanced leadership and instructor training, tailored to the needs of the Ukrainian armed forces.

Last year, on a bleak training ground in southern England, I watched a squad of six young Ukrainians approach a dummy house. They moved silently, almost like dancers, flowing into positions they had drilled over and over. Within a minute, the “house” was cleared. This was no Hollywood shoot-’em-up. It was urban warfare training – cold, efficient, and absolutely real in its purpose.

These men were not career soldiers. Only weeks earlier, they had been IT technicians, digger drivers, postmen or students, about to enter into a programme that would transform them from civilians into fighters. On arrival they were issued with 65 items of kit, shown their bunks, and plunged into 35 days of relentless instruction: weapons handling, trench warfare, battlefield first aid, mine clearance, urban combat. What takes between 12 and 18 weeks for a British recruit is condensed into little more than a month.

The effect is profound. As Lieutenant Colonel Wilson, who commands the Interflex Training Delivery Unit, told me: “They come out walking taller and prouder. We do the basics really well, and we’ve been doing this for a really long time.” A senior Ukrainian officer put it even more bluntly: “Our best recruits come from Interflex.”

I met Vlad, a 23-year-old IT technician who would soon be on the front line. He was tall, slim, handsome, and already carrying that thousand-yard stare soldiers often acquire after combat. He told me quietly that he had lost friends, but still volunteered because he had to defend his homeland. Then there was Vitalii, 25, a burly digger driver. He admitted the course was tough, but knew he would be better prepared because of it. Both young men were conscious that in just a few weeks they might be fighting – and dying – in Ukraine’s trenches. I have no idea today whether they are still alive.

That civilian-to-soldier pipeline is exactly what several European countries have institutionalised. Finland obliges nearly all young men to serve in the armed forces, with alternatives for conscientious objectors. Sweden, rattled by Russia’s aggression, reintroduced conscription in 2017. Poland, now directly threatened, has invested heavily in territorial defence forces and civilian training, and has sent 40,000 troops to be deployed on its eastern border as it prepares for Russia and Belarus’s huge spectacle of joint military drills, called Zapad 2025.

These European military schemes are not a nostalgic throwback but a pragmatic insurance policy: a way to ensure that if the balloon goes up, thousands already know how to fight.

Britain, by contrast, abandoned compulsory service in 1960. Back then, young men were called up for two years, with exemptions for certain professions and deferments for students. The system was often unfair – those with connections dodged more easily – but it created a vast pool of men with basic military training. Were we to contemplate something similar today, the debate would be about not just logistics, but fairness and consent.

In the Second World War, unmarried men aged 18 to 41 were the first to be drafted, with “reserved occupations” such as miners, doctors and clergy exempted. Women were conscripted, too, though typically for war work rather than combat.

In today’s Britain, any call-up would look very different. Gender neutrality would be essential, as Norway already demonstrates. Doctors, paramedics, cyber specialists, and energy workers might be kept out of combat but still obliged to serve. The key would be fairness: nothing corrodes morale faster than a sense that the privileged can buy their way out.

Sceptics argue that drones, AI and long-range missiles have rendered mass armies obsolete. Ukraine shows otherwise. Drones can spot the enemy, AI can crunch targeting data – but only human beings can clear a trench, hold a street, or sweep a house. That is why Ukraine keeps training civilians by the thousand. It is why Finland and Sweden maintain their drafts, and why Poland has shifted to a war-footing posture. Numbers matter. Without sufficient manpower, even the most sophisticated weapons are hollow assets.

If, heaven forbid, Britain were drawn into a major European war, how would we prepare? A plausible option is a selective form of national service: short, intense training cycles – perhaps six to nine months, or even a five-week Interflex-style model – creating a pool of reservists who could be recalled. A dual track would widen the net, with civilians trained for hospitals, logistics, cyber defence and emergency response as well as combat.

General Sir Patrick Sanders, the former Chief of the General Staff, has been clear. He warned that Britain must prepare for a “whole-of-nation undertaking” and that “Ukraine brutally illustrates that regular armies start wars; citizen armies win them”. His argument was not for blanket conscription, but for the foundations of a voluntary call-up if needed. That idea may be unpalatable, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to dismiss.

We should not be naive. Training civilians into soldiers is possible – I have seen it happen in five weeks – but it comes with costs. Lives are disrupted, studies postponed, careers derailed. Some are simply not suited for combat, and pushing them into it risks psychological damage. Politically, too, governments must be honest. This is not a rite of passage. It is preparation for horror. It is justified only by the gravest of threats, and only if administered fairly.

When I watched those young Ukrainians moving silently through a mock house in southern England, I realised how fine is the line between peace and mobilisation. One month, you are an IT technician or working on a building site; the next, you are clearing buildings and preparing for the possibility of death.

The events in Poland this week have reminded us that Europe is not immune to war. For Britain, the question is not only whether our jets can fly or our submarines sail, but whether we have the people ready – and if not, how quickly we would be able to train them. Interflex shows it can be done. The Ukrainians have proved it. The uncomfortable question is whether, if war did come, we would be willing to do the same.

Man jailed over shooting of girl, 9, and three men outside restaurant

A man has been jailed over the shooting of a nine-year-old girl and three men outside a London restaurant in a long-running gang feud.

Javon Riley, 33, was sentenced at the Old Bailey to life in prison with a minimum term of 34 years on Friday.

The Tottenham man was earlier found guilty of causing grievous harm with intent to the girl, who cannot be named, and of attempting to murder Mustafa Kiziltan, 35, Kenan Aydogdu, 45, and Nasser Ali, 44.

Riley was a hired spotter and getaway driver in the shooting – a bloody rivalry between the Turkish gangs of north London.

The girl was hit in the head by one of six bullets fired by a man on a passing motorbike as she sat with her family in the Evin Restaurant in Kingsland High Street, Hackney, on 29 May 2024.

She still lives with a bullet lodged in her brain.

The three male victims, who were sitting nearby, received gunshot wounds to the arm, leg and thigh.

Sentencing Riley on Friday, Judge Mark Lucraft KC said the gang rivalry had seen a number of “tit-for-tat” murders and attempted murders in London and overseas over the past 10 years.

The three men who were shot were said to be affiliated with the Hackney Turks organised crime gang, who had a rivalry with the Tottenham Turks, with whom Riley had links, jurors had heard.

The gunman is at large but prosecutors said Riley had played a “key role” before, during and after the shooting.

Riley carried out reconnaissance of the restaurant before the attack, scouted for potential targets and drove the gunman away in a stolen car, which was later burnt out.

The nine-year-old girl spent three months in hospital and will suffer with lifelong physical and cognitive problems.

Scotland Yard has offered up to £15,000 for information leading to the identification, arrest and prosecution of the person who fired the shots.

During a three-week trial, Riley was asked to identify the “third party” who had recruited him for around £40,000.

He refused, citing fear for his life and that of his family.

The defendant admitted conducting reconnaissance, spotting targets and picking up the gunman, but claimed he believed it was a “smash-and-grab” robbery.

He later admitted the person who used the gun had said to him: “Shots have been fired. I need to get out of here.”

The court heard that Riley, who was born in Jamaica, had a string of convictions dating back to 2008, including for possession of cannabis and cocaine, driving offences and having an offensive weapon and a blade in his car.

He also admitted involvement in car theft, drug dealing and robberies, but said he had never been caught for those offences.

Police recordings revealed Riley’s links to the Tottenham Turks, including talks about Izzet Eren, who was shot in Moldova on 10 July 2024 in what was believed to be a revenge attack.

I wish my mum had contacted Macmillan Cancer Support

I wasn’t at my mum’s side when she learned she had breast cancer, but that made me determined to be there the day she was getting the all-clear 18-months later. However, things didn’t go to plan that day.

Mum’s cancer journey started over a decade ago, a few months after a routine mammogram – when she developed “a pain”. She told herself it was probably nothing, because the scan she’d just had was fine. When she mentioned it to her GP – a small lump that didn’t feel quite right – she convinced herself that she was just being silly. The biopsy begged to differ.

In the list you keep in your head of the cancers you worry your mum might get, breast wasn’t that high on mine. Yes, it’s long been the number one cancer affecting women, with Macmillan Cancer Support reporting that about 55,000 women are diagnosed with breast cancer in the UK each year  – the risk factor only increasing with age. But my mum had other health concerns to contend with.

As a schoolgirl in swinging London, she’d been a back-of-the-bikeshed smoker, which had graduated into a lifelong habit. Lung cancer seemed like a possibility.

Mum’s also the biggest sun worshipper I know. Long before any of us had heard of SPF, she would think nothing of spending an afternoon in the garden, stretched out on a blanket, slathered in baby oil. So, given what we know now about UV radiation, I wondered about skin cancer too.

Mum went on to have a series of lumpectomies to get rid of three spots of malignant tissue. She would also have lymph nodes removed as a precaution, as well as undergo extensive chemotherapy.

For me, her diagnosis was as though a stopwatch had been started. How long might she have left? She did her best to be stoic. Which was just as well, given what government austerity measures at the time were doing to the NHS: budget cuts, hapless reorganisations, and an end to the “gold-standard” two-week referral from detection to the start of treatment.

All mum could do was wait for the brown envelopes to drop on the doormat detailing appointments at unfamiliar hospitals many miles away, sometimes after the appointment had been and gone.

If she felt let down by the bureaucracy of our health service, the same could not be said for the army of individuals involved in her care. On a human level, she found her nurses and doctors to be uniquely composed and compassionate throughout her treatment.

When the day finally came for her oncologist to tell her that all the signs of her cancer had gone, I was invited along to hold her hand. “The scans are back,” he began. “And I need to discuss your options for the next course of action.” It seemed the cancer hadn’t quite gone after all. She had fought so hard to get to this point, she was expecting good news, and was unprepared for the knockback.

But she did go on to beat cancer – and has been in remission for more than five years, which we couldn’t be more grateful for. However, should it ever come back, there’s one thing we’d do differently from the off: make a call to Macmillan Cancer Support.

Only with hindsight, did we realise how much help Macmillan would have been. Someone to provide her with a calming companion for the journey, someone to help with the cancer admin – the appointments, the prescriptions, the test results – and someone to explain what all the scans and tests were for, what the results might mean, and what to expect next.

I couldn’t always be around while mum was living with cancer, and that’s where Macmillan steps in. Now, enjoying a slice of cake at a Coffee Morning, which is raising money to fund the work they do, seems like the least I can do.

Find out how you can help raise vital funds by hosting a Macmillan Coffee Morning. Sign up now on the Macmillan website

Macmillan Cancer Support, registered charity in England and Wales (261017), Scotland (SC039907) and the Isle of Man (604). Also operating in Northern Ireland.

Met Office warning expanded and power-cut alert issued for winds

Strong winds are set to batter most of England and Wales on Sunday – but the yellow-warning weather is not expected to become a named storm.

Most of England and Wales will feel 45 to 55mph gusts, and exposed locations could see these reach 70mph, the Met Office said.

A yellow wind warning will run from 8pm on Sunday to 6pm on Monday and was expanded on Friday morning to include most of England and Wales, except the north of the Lake District and the far North East.

The warning predicts transport delays and that large waves will affect coastal areas, with short-term power cuts possible.

Sunny spells and scattered showers – some blustery and thundery – are expected to move across the UK on Saturday, before the west and south-westerly winds hit.

It will be a chilly night in the far north with possible grass frosts and fog in Scottish glens as well as sheltered Lake District and North Pennines valleys, meteorologists predict.

Met Office spokesperson Grahame Madge said on Friday morning: “There is no intention to name it, as of now.

“Obviously, we are in meteorological autumn now, it’s the sort of weather that we do expect at this time of year.

“So it’s nothing unusual, particularly – perhaps it’s just the contrast with the weather that we have enjoyed over most of the summer.”

The winds will start to ease from the west on Monday afternoon, and Tuesday should see a lull to the disruptive weather.

However, another system is developing which could bring severe gales to exposed coastal locations on Wednesday, Mr Madge said.

This will have less of an impact than Sunday and Monday’s weather front and it is too early to tell where it will impact, he added.

A spokesperson for the RAC breakdown service, Rod Dennis, said: “Drivers are really going to feel the effects of the early autumnal weather this weekend.

“This will particularly be the case later on Sunday and into the new working week – strong gusty winds will make driving conditions challenging across a large swathe of southern and western Britain.

“The wind will be particularly noticeable on more exposed roads, like those over the moors in Devon and Cornwall, so drivers may like to delay their journeys or seek other routes.

“We urge anyone setting out to reduce their speeds while driving and pass high-sided vehicles with particular care.”

David Bowie’s favourite songs revealed as new exhibition opens

The David Bowie Centre has revealed a list of the musician’s favourite songs to mark the public opening of its archive.

The centre is the latest attraction to be opened by London’s Victoria and Albert Museum, which launched its East Storehouse building in late May.

Based in the Queen Elizabeth Olympic Park, the visitor attraction houses around half a million works encompassing items from the museum’s Glastonbury Festival archive, concert costumes worn by Elton John, designer couture and more.

The newly opened Bowie display contains 90,000 items related to the iconic musician, outlining his career and showcasing his work, including his outfits, lyrics and songs, as well as an unearthed list of the artist’s favourite tracks and LPs.

The note, titled “Memo for radio show – list of favourite records,” includes Jeff Beck’s “Beck’s Bolero”, “Across the Universe” by The Beatles,  and Sonic Youth’s “Tom Violence”.

The complete list of tracks/albums is as follows:

Ralph Vaughan Williams – Fantasia on a Theme by Thomas Tallis

Richard Strauss – Four Last Songs

Alan Freed and His Rock ’n’ Roll Band – Right Now Right Now

Little Richard – True Fine Mama

The Hollywood Argyles – Sho’ Know a Lot About Love

Miles Davis – Someday My Prince Will Come

Charles Mingus – Ecclusiastics

Jeff Beck – Beck’s Bolero

Legendary Stardust Cowboy – I Took a Trip on a Gemini Spaceship

The Beatles – Across the Universe

Ronnie Spector – Try Some, Buy Some

Roxy Music – Mother of Pearl

Edgar Froese – Epsilon in Malaysian Pale

The Walker Brothers – The Electrician

Sonic Youth – Tom Violence

In uncovering the archive, it was also reportedly discovered that Bowie was working on a musical titled The Spectator, set in 18th century east London. Even his closest collaborators were not aware of the project, notes on which were found in his study after his death from cancer in 2016.

As described by the installation’s curator, Madeleine Haddon, in a preview of the archive, the show is about “the relationship between art and politics in London at the cusp of modernity”.

In its five-star review of the exhibition, The Independent predicted that it would “make a lot of people, from pop culture theorists to diehard Bowie aficionados, extremely happy”.

The V&A’s David Bowie Centre will open on Saturday 13 September.