Data error gives Rachel Reeves an extra £3bn for Budget

Rachel Reeves has been handed a rare boost ahead of next month’s Budget after the Office for National Statistics (ONS) announced that government borrowing had been overstated by a cumulative £3bn due to mistakes in recent public finances data.

Since January, public borrowing estimates have been out by around £200m-£500m a month, the ONS said, handing the chancellor some extra breathing space in her upcoming Budget.

The statistics body blamed the error, which emerged in its tax and spending figures published on 19 September, on a mistake in the VAT receipts data supplied by HMRC.

As a result, public borrowing for the year ending March 2025 was around £1bn lower than previously estimated. For this year so far, from April to August, it is £2bn lower.

James Benford, director general of economic, social and environmental statistics at the ONS, said: “I would like to thank HMRC for bringing the data error to our attention; this timely and transparent communication was vital for identifying the issue and correcting the record quickly.

“We have published this correction at the earliest possible opportunity. The revised data will be fully incorporated into the next public sector finance release, due on 21 October 2025, along with further regular data updates, including the recent publication on local government by the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government.

“The impact of the correction is to reduce government borrowing by around £1bn in FYE March 2025 and impacts monthly borrowing in the current financial year by between £200m and £500m per month.”

The latest revisions hand a rare boost to the beleaguered chancellor, who is gearing up for a difficult Budget next month where she will need to find savings of between £20bn-£40bn.

Speaking at the Labour conference in Liverpool last week, she warned of “harsh global headwinds” battering Britain’s economy, as she failed to dispel fears over major tax hikes.

It comes amid rampant speculation over tax rises at the next Budget after the chancellor earlier on Monday admitted that “the world has changed” since she promised business chiefs she would not repeat the tax raid of her first Budget.

Meanwhile, there is a growing expectation that she will choose to lift the controversial two-child benefits limit, as officials look at a number of options – including a “tapered” system.

The chancellor is under intense pressure to scrap the “cruel” policy, brought in by Tory chancellor George Osborne, which campaigners say would be the biggest single measure that could take children out of poverty.

But Ms Reeves told delegates at the party’s conference that she would keep control of the public finances and would “not take risks with the trust placed in us by the British people”.

She also acknowledged that her choices had been made “harder” by international events and the “long-term damage” done to the economy.

A government spokesperson said: “This revision means the ONS has reduced its borrowing figures down for 2025/26 by £2 billion.

“The revision does not affect any interactions with taxpayers and HMRC is conducting a robust review to prevent it happening again.”

Starmer considers police crackdown on chants at pro-Palestine protests

Keir Starmer has called for a police crackdown on some of the chants heard at pro-Palestine protests.

His comment came just hours after students defied his calls and took part in pro-Gaza marches on university campuses across the UK on the second anniversary of Hamas’s October 7 attacks on Israel.

Among the chants heard at the protests was: “From the river to the sea, Palestine will be free”, which some consider to be antisemitic as they believe it calls for the eradication of Israel.

Proponents of the chant claim they are calling for an end to conflict in Gaza and the West Bank.

The anniversary came less than a week after knife-wielding terrorist Jihad Al-Shamie, 35, killed two men at Heaton Park Hebrew Congregation Synagogue in Manchester.

The prime minister had described the protests as “un-British” and claimed they showed a lack of respect, and warned that pro-Palestine protests have been used by some as a “despicable excuse to attack British Jews”.

But free speech campaigners have hit back, saying any further crackdown would impinge on their rights.

The prime minister told journalists travelling with him to India that when it comes to making the Jewish community feel safe, just days after the terror attack on a synagogue in Manchester during which two people were killed, “I do think there are actions that we need to take and that is what we will do.”

He pointed to an announcement by the home secretary, Shabana Mahmoo,d over the weekend that police would in future be able to assess the “cumulative” impact of such protests.

But, he said: “I think we need to review more broadly public order powers – and there will be a series of actions that we will agree in due course across Whitehall.”

“I’ve asked the home secretary to look more broadly at what other powers are available, how they’re being used, and whether they should be changed in any way.”

He added: “I think we need to go further than that in relation to some of the chants that are going on at some of these protests.”

Pressed on what he meant by that, he said: “Obviously operational matters are very much a matter for the police. So there’s only so much the government can do.

“But I do think we need to have a conversation with various police forces about the way in which these are being policed and what measures can be taken.

“That has to be part of the review that we carry out into what powers do we have and how they’re being exercised? And then the question of ‘do any of these powers therefore need to be changed or enhanced’? And that’s the exercise we’re going through. But we are talking at length to leaders of the Jewish community about this, as you would expect.”

Sam Grant, director of external relations at rights group Liberty, said recent moves to crack down on protests “have severely weakened people’s rights, caused mass confusion, and led to some spending many years in prison for non-violent demonstrations.”

He added: “If the government is serious about reviewing protest laws, it must actually engage with groups and people most impacted by the policing of protests and build policy based on their experiences.

“The only possible conclusion is that protest laws and related police powers are already too restrictive and must be rolled back to protect people’s fundamental rights, not added to further.”

Ben Jamal, director of the Palestine Solidarity Campaign, said: “The British government is spending more time considering how to restrict protests against genocide than stopping its own complicity. We will resist their attempts to restrict our fundamental democratic rights – on Saturday, we march in London once again”.

A spokesperson for Defend Our Juries, which has organised silent protests in support of proscribed group Palestine Action, said that Sir Keir’s pledge “shows what we’ve warned about all along: that proscribing Palestine Action would pave the way for further authoritarian crackdowns on our rights to free speech in this country”.

On Sunday, Ms Mahmood said repeated large-scale protests had caused “considerable fear” for the Jewish community.

The previous day, officers arrested hundreds of people at a Palestine Action protest in London, just days after the Manchester synagogue attack.

Met Police said 492 people were arrested at the protest in support of the proscribed group, which was controversially classed by the UK government as a terrorist organisation earlier this year.

Most of the arrests were made at Trafalgar Square, where around 1,000 protesters sat silently, some holding signs backing Palestine Action, despite calls from Sir Keir and police chiefs to stay away following the terror attack in Manchester.

At the time, Paula Dodds, chair of the Metropolitan Police Federation, said officers were “physically exhausted” but continue to be called on “to facilitate these relentless protests. And we are coming under attack for doing so. How can this be right?” she asked.

But Amnesty International said it should not be the job of the police to arrest people “peacefully sitting down”, and that the arrests amounted to a breach of the UK’s human rights obligations.

Moscow says momentum for peace deal after Trump-Putin summit has been exhausted

The momentum to find a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine has been exhausted since the Donald Trump–Vladimir Putin summit in Alaska, Moscow’s deputy foreign minister has said.

Growing relations between Washington and Moscow culminated in the August meeting, the second between the two presidents, which some hoped would see progress towards a peace deal in Ukraine.

“Unfortunately, we have to admit that Anchorage’s powerful momentum in favour of agreements has been largely exhausted by the efforts of opponents and supporters of the war,” Sergei Ryabkov said according to Interfax.

“This is the result of destructive activities, primarily by the Europeans,” he said.

The deputy foreign minister also warned Washington against sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, echoing repeated warnings from the past week.

The potential appearance of US Tomahawk missiles in Ukraine would mean a ‘qualitative’ change in the situation, he was quoted as Interfax by saying, calling on Washington to take what he described as a sober and responsible approach.

Trump had said he wants to know what Ukraine plans to do with Tomahawks before agreeing to provide them, because he did not want to escalate the war.

Manchester synagogue attacker called 999 to pledge allegiance to Islamic State

The Manchester synagogue terrorist called 999 and pledged allegiance to Islamic State after he launched the attack.

Counter Terrorism Policing North West has confirmed that knifeman Jihad al-Shamie, 35, called police in the initial stages of the attack last Thursday.

Melvin Cravitz, 66, and Adrian Daulby, 53, were both killed and several others were injured during the attack, which took place on Yom Kippur, the holiest day in the Jewish calendar.

A spokesperson for Counter Terrorism Policing North West said: “We can confirm that, in the initial stages of the attack outside the Heaton Park Hebrew Congregation Synagogue, a call was made by the attacker to police claiming to pledge allegiance to the so-called Islamic State.

“We are continuing to investigate the full circumstances and motivation behind what happened. The investigation is continuing at pace.”

Reports in The Sun say he told 999 operators: “I have killed two Jews in the name of the Islamic State.”

Shamie, who was on bail for an alleged rape offence, was shot dead by police minutes after he launched the attack, which was declared a terror attack by authorities.

Police are still working to establish the full details of the motivations of the 35-year-old attacker, who was a British national of Syrian heritage and was granted citizenship in 2006 as a minor.

Investigators do not believe he had ever been referred to Prevent, Britain’s counterterrorism programme, but did have a criminal history and police say he may have been influenced by an extreme Islamist mindset.

In a statement, his family condemned the attack, describing it as a “heinous act”.

It later emerged that two victims of the attack were shot by armed police as they sheltered inside the barricaded door of the synagogue.

Adrian Daulby, 53, died after he sustained a bullet wound, while another person was injured by a stray bullet.

Sir Stephen Watson, chief constable of Greater Manchester Police, said the victims’ bullet wounds “may sadly have been sustained as a tragic and unforeseen consequence of the urgently required action taken by my officers to bring this vicious attack to an end”.

The Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC), the police watchdog, has launched an investigation into the fatal shooting by armed officers.

Four people arrested on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts remain in custody after police were granted a further five days to question them on Saturday.

There are two men, aged 30 and 32, and a woman, 61, all arrested in Prestwich, and a 46-year-old woman arrested in Farnworth.

An 18-year-old woman and a 43-year-old man who were arrested in Farnworth, were released with no further action on Saturday.

Stephen Lawrence killer ‘is an unreliable narrator and not ready to be freed’

One of Stephen Lawrence’s killers is an “unreliable narrator” who is not ready to be released, a prison psychologist has told the Parole Board.

David Norris, 49, yesterday apologised for his role in the teenager’s racist murder as he appeared at a parole review hearing in a bid for freedom.

However, a prison psychologist suggested the killer was an “unreliable narrator of his own life” as he identified inconsistencies in the evidence Norris gave to the panel.

“I think hearing the evidence was quite confusing – sometimes admitting some things, sometimes going back on that and sometimes being confused around dates,” the expert said.

He added he did not know if that was due to the pressure of the hearing or because he was being “cautious” in a public forum, but noted: “He clearly wants to be careful what he admits to.”

The prison-appointed expert said that while Norris has made “some progress”, he does not believe he has met the test for release or to be moved to open conditions.

“I would argue he should remain in closed conditions,” the expert, who cannot be identified, told the hearing.

The psychologist noted Norris had admitted to him during nine hours of assessment that he had used racially disrespectful language in an incident with another prisoner in 2017.

However, giving evidence to the panel, Norris said he can’t remember using the offensive term towards a Muslim inmate.

Asked by panel member Dr Duncan Harding if the inconsistency was due to poor memory or if Norris was “deliberately trying to rewrite history”, the psychologist replied: “I don’t know the answer to that, but I would say it’s probably likely a combination of those things.

“Sometimes he has a good memory and good detail for certain things, other times less so. I do think that he wants to project – certainly in the public domain – himself in a positive light.”

He added that Norris has a lack of racial awareness and is more likely to use racist language during times of mental ill health or frustration.

However, the psychologist said he believed the remorse shown by Norris was “genuine” and had pre-dated his parole hearing.

A second psychologist, appointed by Norris, disagreed and argued that the killer does meet the test for release or being moved to open conditions.

She noted he had spent 19 years in the community before he was convicted, during which time he was not charged with any other crimes.

She agreed there was some “confusion in the narrative” in Norris’ evidence to the parole panel, adding: “I do think it’s a combination of it being a public hearing, this is also Mr Norris’ first hearing.

“I think he’s not typically someone who would communicate himself in the most eloquent way.”

She also claimed his history of violence was not all racially motivated and also included “football violence” and “postcode violence”, suggesting his racist attitudes were likely amplified in a group context.

Only two of Lawrence’s five or six alleged attackers have ever faced justice. Norris was jailed for life with a minimum of 14 years, along with Gary Dobson, who must serve a minimum of 15 years, in a trial that hinged on tiny traces of forensic evidence in 2012.

Yesterday, Norris, now 49, said he was “deeply sorry” to the teenager’s family as he publicly admitted his part in the racist murder for the first time.

He said he was caught up in a “gang mentality” as he described punching the aspiring architect, 18, as he was crouched on the ground.

Norris told the hearing there were five individuals involved in the murder, but said his family would be “at risk” if he named the other killers. He claimed he did not see the 22cm blade which inflicted the fatal blows until they fled the scene.

The group never spoke about the incident except to say “be careful of what you say from here on in, and it was never spoken about again,” Norris told the hearing.

He insisted there is “no group loyalty” or “criminal code” preventing him from naming his accomplices, adding: “There is one reason and one reason only, because I’m worried about the safety of my family.”

However, Lawrence’s grieving mother told the panel he was an “obvious danger to society” and should not be released.

Baroness Doreen Lawrence reminded the hearing of a shocking covert police recording of Norris and Dobson from 1994, known as the Footscray tapes, in which Norris discussed how he would “kill every black c***” he knows.

“Any person who expresses views like this and doesn’t recant is an obvious danger to society and must remain in custody,” Baroness Lawrence added.

Lawrence’s father said “justice has not been done” if Norris is released without naming the other members of the gang.

The prison hearing is being video-streamed to a room in the Royal Courts of Justice where members of the public, including Baroness Lawrence, are able to observe proceedings.

Norris, wearing a grey long-sleeved top and using a hearing loop, is visible only from behind.

Norris was moved back up to category B prison after he was caught with mobile phones and a screwdriver in 2022.

The hearing will continue in private on Friday and the Parole Board will then publish their decision within 14 days.

Norwegian nature: Enjoy wild, wonderful adventures on a safari-at-sea

Norway’s rugged coast is chock-full of natural beauty, dotted with steep fjords where the mountains meet the sea and teeming with all kinds of curious wildlife, from orcas, humpbacks, and over 80 species of seabirds to red foxes, reindeer, and otters. Norwegians are famous for their deep love of the outdoors, which even has its own word: friluftsliv. It helps that it is home to more than 150,000 lakes and is known for its dramatic fjord-fringed landscapes and shimmering glaciers. It’s also one of the best places to catch the technicolour magic of the Aurora Borealis.

What’s more, if you explore this breathtaking region on a Hurtigruten cruise, you’ll do so alongside the expert local Expedition Team, who have spent years traversing Norway’s rugged coastline. They are always on hand to provide engaging insights into the nature, wildlife, and culture you’ll encounter on every voyage. They go above and beyond to ensure you experience more than just the tourist hot spots. Each team member has their own area of expertise and hosts regular lectures for those who want to delve deeper into a specific interest. They also encourage you to join them on their hand-picked hikes and activities, which are at an additional cost and subject to availability but offer the chance to explore with those who know the area best.

Drawing on over 130 years of travel experience, Original and Signature Hurtigruten Voyages lead passengers along Norway’s dramatic Arctic coastline, showcasing its remarkable natural beauty in all its glory, with options to stop off in various locations along the way. As you sail between destinations, keep your eyes peeled for the abundance of wildlife that frequents the area. The coastline is a popular haunt for mammals like giant humpbacks, frolicking seals and playful porpoises.

During time spent on land, depending on your route, you might also come face-to-face with reindeer in the north or the elusive lynx, not to mention the flora that decorates the landscape in various seasons. Some routes stop at Mehamn, a traditional fishing town with only 800 inhabitants. From here, you can embark on an excursion to learn about the Sámi, an indigenous people from Europe’s northernmost region, known for reindeer herding, traditional handicrafts, and a deep connection to nature. Get to know the family, hear their stories and joik chanting, and try dried reindeer meat around a fire in a lavvo tent.

There are many different journeys you can take, depending on what you want to get out of your cruise. Trace the historic Coastal Express route on one of their Original Voyages, Hurtigruten’s first and most iconic route, established in 1893 and often hailed as the world’s most beautiful voyage. You’ll cover 2,500 nautical miles and visit 34 ports, starting in Bergen, Norway’s second-largest city, where you can hop on a funicular to the summit of Mount Fløyen and soak up the incredible views of the city, the nearby fjords, and the surrounding mountains.

The North Cape Line Winter route is another popular cruise for nature lovers. This Signature Voyage adventure starts and finishes in Norway’s Capital, Oslo. The Signature Voyages take things up a notch, offering unmatched views of Norway’s best bits with more time to explore each stop. They’re also a hit with foodies, thanks to the all-inclusive option featuring award-winning restaurants and seasonal produce from Norway’s bountiful coastline.

Åndalsnes is also a favourite stop on the route, home to soaring mountains overlooking the surrounding town. It’s the ultimate hotspot for hikers, climbers and skiers thanks to its abundant accessible natural beauty. The Troll Wall is a highlight for adrenaline seekers here; this 1,000-metre vertical cliff in the Romsdalen valley boasts some of the most epic views from atop, including 360-degree vistas of Romsdalshorn, Åndalsnes town centre, and the Rauma River.

This route also takes you to The City of Northern Lights, Alta, where you can stand at the northernmost point in Europe, Cape Point in Honningsvåg – the perfect vantage point for those trying to catch this incredible natural phenomenon. Hurtigruten is so confident you’ll see the lights that they even offer a ‘Northern Lights Promise’: a free cruise if you don’t see them during the season (valid on 11-day plus voyages from 20th September to 31st March).

Many of the routes stop at Lofoten, an archipelago with immense peaks and fishing villages sandwiched between slopes. It’s not hard to see why this chain of islands is referred to as one of Norway’s most beautiful locations. Hiking opportunities abound here, and most trails lead to spectacular vistas, or if you prefer to stay on the water, you can hop in a kayak and enjoy a leisurely paddle.

Lofoten isn’t the only archipelago you’ll see on specific routes — keep an eye out for the Vega archipelago, a collection of around 6,500 islands, skerries, and islets. On Gardsøy Island, you’ll find a UNESCO World Heritage Centre with dedicated huts for local eider ducks to build their nests.

Journeying south along Norway’s west coast, many of the routes also take you past some of the country’s most famous fjords, including Hardangerfjord, measuring a whopping 179 kilometres in length, making it the second longest fjord in the country and fifth longest in the world. Get your cameras ready, as you’ll be treated to panoramic mountain vistas from every direction, with snow-capped peaks peeking over the fjord reflected on mirror-like water.

Hurtigruten cruises stop at Torsken on the southbound leg of the Svalbard Line, one of their premium, all-inclusive Signature Voyages that sails from Bergen to the Arctic archipelago and back. The secluded fishing village of Torsken is perfect for outdoors enthusiasts, tucked away in Torskenfjorden on the rugged west coast of Senja Island. It’s home to just a handful of houses, workshops, and small piers sprinkled with fishing boats and is the ideal base for exploring Norway’s second-largest island, Senja.

Senja’s stunning coastline has been rightly nicknamed the ‘Caribbean of the North’ thanks to its white-sand beaches and towering mountain peaks. It’s best to take an excursion and explore by small boat to spot white-tailed eagles, seals, seabirds like cormorants, and maybe even a golden eagle. Whether exploring Senja or simply soaking up sea views from onboard, a Hurtigruten cruise offers a chance to connect with nature, wildlife, and Norway’s stunning landscapes, with countless routes to choose from.

Book your Norwegian adventure for less, with up to 30% off, plus 10% off excursions on selected Coastal Express and North Cape Line voyages. For offers, routes and excursion info, visit Hurtigruten.

Woman accused of impersonating Madeleine McCann sobs in court as Kate tells of ‘distress’

A woman accused of stalking Madeleine McCann’s mother Kate McCann shouted, “Why are you doing this to me?” as she was led from court on Wednesday.

Kate McCann appeared in the witness box at Leicester Crown Court, shielded from the dock by a curtain so she could not see defendants Julia Wendell, 24, also known as Julia Wandelt, and Karen Spragg, 61.

Both women have denied a count of stalking causing serious alarm and distress to Kate and Gerry McCann between June 2022 and February this year.

The judge told jurors that the use of a screen was “entirely usual” and did not reflect on the defendants in any way.

The court previously heard that Ms Wandelt, from southwest Poland, claimed to be Madeleine, who vanished from Portugal’s Algarve in 2007, just nine days from her fourth birthday.

She had turned up at the McCanns’ family home and signed a letter addressed to them as the missing girl, the court heard.

Ms McCann began by saying she first became aware of the existence of Ms Wandelt about three years ago.

Prosecutor Michael Duck KC then confirmed that the first attempts to contact the McCann family by Ms Wandelt occurred on 24 June 2022.

Ms McCann said she became aware through officers working on Operation Grange, the Met Police inquiry into her daughter’s disappearance, that Ms Wandelt believed herself to be Madeleine.

Mr Duck then read excerpts of messages Ms Wandelt sent to Ms McCann, in which the defendant said “let me prove I am not a liar” and “give me a chance, I don’t want money”.

Ms McCann was asked by Mr Duck if she had responded to the messages.

Ms McCann answered: “No. I did not want to engage.”

Asked by the Crown’s barrister Michael Duck KC about a visit Ms Wandelt and Ms Spragg made to the McCanns’ home address in Leicestershire on 7 December 2024, Kate McCann said it left her “distressed”.

She said: “I pulled up on the drive… it was really dark, it was the weekend, we had the gales.

“I was opening the boot to get something out and I heard someone say, ‘Kate’.

“I knew it was someone behind me, but I didn’t know who it was. I had pictures of [Ms Wandelt], plus she was quite vivid in my mind anyway because of the communications.

“She called me ‘Mum’, I think, she was asking for a DNA test, ‘Why won’t you do a DNA test?’ and pleading with me.”

Asked by Mr Duck how she felt to be “greeted in that manner on your driveway”, Ms McCann said: “I got a fright anyway; when I realised who it was, I felt quite distressed.

“Then they followed me, I remember trying to close the door and Julia trying to put her hands out to stop me closing the door.”

Asked about the manner of Ms Spragg, who had attended the McCann home address with Ms Wandelt, Kate McCann said: “I would say she was slightly more aggressive.

“She was a bit more kind of… ‘Don’t you want to find your daughter?’”

As the prosecution finished asking Ms McCann questions, Ms Wandelt sobbed loudly and shouted, “Why are you doing this to me?”

Officers escorted her out of the dock at Leicester Crown Court as she continued to cry uncontrollably.

The trial continues.

Britain has failed its China test – weakness does not work with Xi

Is China an enemy? To judge by the level of competence displayed in the Westminster espionage case, nobody is qualified to say.

Sir Keir Starmer has insisted the previous Tory government is to blame for the collapse of a high-profile case against two men accused of spying for China. That case, against Christopher Cash, a former parliamentary researcher who worked closely with MPs, and Christopher Berry – who were both accused of passing secrets to Beijing and both denied the charges – was dropped last month.

Director of public prosecutions Stephen Parkinson said the Crown Prosecution Service had tried “over many months” to get the evidence it needed from the government referring to China as a national security threat to carry out the prosecution, but it had not been forthcoming from the Labour government.

It begs the question: where will Britain draw the line? Last month the chief of MI6, Sir Richard Moore, called China an enduring challenge, ranking it with Russia and Iran. He blamed Beijing for helping Vladimir Putin to wage war against Ukraine.

“It is the support that China has consistently given to Russia, both diplomatically and also in terms of “dual use goods” – the “Made in China” chemicals that end up in their shells; the electronic components that end up in their missiles – that have prevented Putin from reaching the conclusion that peace is his best option,” he said in a rare public speech.

Nonetheless, we also know that President Xi Jinping called Putin to warn him against using a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, according to a book by the US journalist Bob Woodward which has not been denied. Moore acknowledged that China “straddles that dichotomy of opportunity and threat” as a major power with a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. The head of MI5, Ken McCallum, is even more measured. “China is different,” he declared last year. “The UK-China economic relationship supports UK growth, which underpins our security.”

What a change in tone from 2022 when McCallum took the stage with the then head of the FBI, Chris Wray, to sound the alarm about “Chinese Communist Party aggression”. McCallum listed covert theft, technology transfer from British companies, exploiting academic research and collecting information across the spectrum of society.

He revealed that 50 students linked to the Chinese military left Britain after the government tightened up. He disclosed that MI5 “issued a UK espionage alert on an individual working in think tanks and academia who was in regular contact with Chinese intelligence officers.”

In cyberwar, he said “a wide range of government and commercial targets were attacked by the three so-called ‘Advanced Persistent Threat’ groups which the UK government has attributed to China’s Ministry of State Security”. The head of GCHQ, Anne Keast-Butler, repeated last year that “the Chinese state” was a cyber threat.

So what has changed? Sir Keir Starmer’s government faces inflation, a hard budget, rising debt, higher defence spending and toxic politics, all worsened by three years of fighting on the Ukrainian front, a chaotic presidency in the United States and the risk of wider wars in the Mideast and Asia.

Jonathan Powell, the National Security Adviser, has emerged as the influencer for engagement with China to protect British interests, to offset its Russian alliance and to persuade Xi not to turn his axis of autocrats into a joint attack on the world order.

In my view, the new language from the spies is a sign of a softer line because the stakes are so high. Hence the dithering over China’s vast new London ‘mega-embassy’, the laughable refusal to publish in full a China policy audit which is assuredly in the hands of Beijing and now a legal fiasco which can, thankfully, be blamed in part on the last government.

There is a precedent in British diplomacy between 1939 and 1941 when the Foreign Office shamelessly pandered to Italy and Japan in the vain but not dishonourable hope of keeping them out of the Second World War.

Critics say it adds up to an inglorious strategy of avoidance, diplomats ask “what would you do instead?” An expert in talking to adversaries, Powell – who will appear before parliament for the first time amid questions about his role in the collapse of the trial – has dealt with Chinese officials behind closed doors before.

But anyone who dreams that “friendly” contacts with China make them a privileged interlocutor should pause to heed the official advice of MI5 cited by Ken McCallum in his 2022 speech: “The motive behind Chinese intelligence service cultivation of Westerners is primarily to make “friends”: once a “friendship” is formed [they] will use the relationship to obtain information which is not legally or commercially available to China and to promote China’s interest.”

“Cultivation of a contact of interest is likely to develop slowly: [they] are very patient. … The aim of these tactics is to create a debt of obligation on the part of the target, who will eventually find it difficult to refuse inevitable requests for favours in return.”

Weakness does not work with Xi Jinping, he is a ruler who respects strength; untroubled at home by legal niceties he will use any means, as a trained Communist, to advance the cause. The task for democracies is to use the laws at their disposal with tough counter-espionage and political determination. So far Britain has not met that test.

Michael Sheridan, a longtime foreign correspondent and diplomatic editor of The Independent, is author of ‘The Red Emperor: Xi Jinping and his New China’, out now in paperback from Headline Press at £12.99