Keir Starmer’s power drains away as talk grows that he won’t last

As a chronicler of Tony Blair’s government, I found the “authority draining away” theme irritating. Mainly because I didn’t want it to be true. Even though it was obvious when Blair announced in 2004 that he would not fight the election after next that it would become harder for him to get people to do what he wanted them to do.

But that was after he had been prime minister for seven years. It allowed him to fend off Gordon Brown for another three years, and win an election – and he still succeeded in intensifying his reform programme of academy schools and NHS choice.

Keir Starmer has hit the “authority draining away” stage rather early. “Sir Keir Starmer is rapidly losing his authority,” said The Economist in July, when a threatened rebellion by Labour MPs forced him to gut a bill to cut disability benefits. “The PM’s authority has been given a kick,” agreed Laura Kuenssberg of the BBC.

Last month Reuters reported, “UK PM Starmer’s authority shaken as rift with Labour lawmakers deepens,” when someone briefed journalists on his behalf that he would stand and fight any challenge to his leadership. And on and on.

That briefing, intended to put an end to leadership speculation, only made it worse. Today alone The Telegraph leads its front page with allies of Wes Streeting proposing a joint leadership ticket with Angela Rayner, while The Times reports that Blair himself is “frustrated” with Starmer and is “looking closely at each of the leadership campaigns”.

Nor are these headlines mere froth, even if they were stirred so counterproductively by Starmer himself, or by people acting on his behalf. I do not think it is a good idea for Labour MPs to be contemplating changing their leader at this stage, but I cannot deny that is precisely what they are doing.

I share Blair’s alleged view that last week’s Budget “killed any idea this is a Blairite or New Labour-like government”, as reported by The Times, but I assume that any government led by Starmer’s replacement would be even less so. Unless Starmer is replaced by Wes Streeting, which seems unlikely, given the views of the Labour Party members who would make the choice.

There is, incidentally, a strange report of a YouGov poll of Labour members, also in The Times (two Labour leadership speculation articles in one day!), the headline of which suggests that Ed Miliband is the members’ choice to succeed Starmer. This is not correct. What the poll shows is that Miliband has the highest approval rating of possible candidates, but approval is not the same as wanting someone to be prime minister, and Angela Rayner does not seem to have been included in the poll. When a Survation poll asked Labour members last month to choose between Starmer and possible rivals as leader, Rayner was the clear winner. Miliband was preferred to Starmer, but by less than the margin of error.

These are just kneejerk polls, and the way a leadership election would play out is hard to predict. Streeting is not as unpopular with party members as might be expected for a Blairite, and he polls better than Rayner among the wider electorate, which will be a factor.

But his prospects are uncertain at best, hence recent reports that his supporters want him to be elected unopposed (no chance) and today’s report that they want to do a deal with Rayner, restoring her as deputy prime minister and offering her a choice of department. Why should she agree to that if she has a good chance of the top job herself?

So, no, I do not think a change of leadership is a good idea. I admire Rayner but I do not think she should be prime minister.

And yet a change of prime minister is increasingly likely to happen. The more people expect it to happen, the more Starmer’s authority drains away, and the more people expect it to happen.

As this cycle intensifies, it becomes ever clearer that Starmer doesn’t have the skills needed to break out of it. This is not my view, but that of Peter Hyman, who worked for him in opposition and who devised the “five missions”. Hyman wrote this week that Starmer is stuck in the “winning strategy” of “working hard, getting on with it, a single-minded focus on the task ahead” that got him to be prime minister, and that it will be hard for him to change.

Hyman argues that Starmer needs to become “an explainer, a story teller, to give the British people the confidence that comes from a sense of purpose and direction”. Simply to write it down is enough to know that it is not going to happen.

The prime minister is going to find it harder and harder to do anything that Labour MPs find difficult. This week he tiptoed closer to the EU and spent money on alleviating child poverty. Those are things that Labour MPs want him to do, and yet they are still talking endlessly about getting rid of him.

I still do not like the phrase, but it cannot be denied that the prime minister’s authority, and therefore his power, is draining away.

Tower of London closed after ‘crumble and custard’ thrown at Crown Jewels case

Four people have been arrested on suspicion of criminal damage after the display case containing the Crown Jewels at the Tower of London was apparently covered in fruit crumble and custard.

The vault where the artefacts are displayed, known as the Jewel House, was temporarily closed to the public while police investigated the potential attack. A group called Take Back Power, who say that they are campaigning for higher taxes on the wealthy, have taken responsibility for the protest.

The group said in a statement posted online that two protesters covered the Crown Jewels display case with custard and apple crumble at around 9:50am on Saturday morning.

Footage shared by the group showed one demonstrator removing the large foil tray of crumble from a bag and slamming it against the glass protecting the Imperial State Crown.

Another then repeatedly poured a tub of bright yellow custard on the front of the case.

The activists then opened their coats to show their T-shirt slogans which read “Take Back Power” before one shouted “Democracy has crumbled” and another shouted “Britain is broken. We’ve come here to the jewels of the nation to take back power.”

Two activists also held a sign reading ‘Democracy has crumbled – Tax the Rich’ in front of the display cabinet.

The group’s statement continued: “By around 10:30, the two action takers and two others had been taken into custard-y by police”.

Surprised tourists could be seen reacting to the stunt which happened on Saturday morning, while a Tower of London worker quickly approached shouting: “Excuse me, excuse me”, as she radioed for help.

Take Back Power targeted the Ritz Hotel on Wednesday by emptying bags of manure next to its Christmas tree. It said it carried out the stunt to demand the government establishes a permanent citizens’ assembly – a “House of the People” – with the power to “tax extreme wealth and fix Britain”.

Police initially said that the Tower of London had been closed to the public but clarified that it is only the Jewel House that is shut off.

Police minister Sarah Jones said that the protest incident at the Tower of London was “disgraceful”.

In a statement on X, Ms Jones said: “Disgraceful incident this morning at the Tower of London. I am grateful to the police for their swift response and for the full investigation, which is now underway.

“There is a clear difference between the democratic right to protest and unacceptable behaviour.”

The Metropolitan Police said that officers arrived at the scene on Saturday morning after reports of criminal damage.

A spokesperson for the force said: “Police were called at 09:48hrs on Saturday, 6 December to the Tower of London following reports of criminal damage to a display case, containing the State Crown.

“It was reported that four protesters threw suspected food onto the case before two left the scene.

“Officers worked closely with City of London Police and security officers and four people have been arrested on suspicion of criminal damage. They have been taken into custody.”

The Tower of London, which was built in the 1070s by William the Conqueror, now attracts more than three million visitors a year. The tower displays the Crown Jewels collection and the Coronation Regalia are at the heart of this exhibition.

This includes the Imperial State Crown, which is worn by the monarch at the end of the coronation ceremony and at formal occasions like the state opening of parliament.

Lighter than St Edward’s Crown – the Coronation Crown – the Imperial State Crown was worn by the King as he left Westminster Abbey on his coronation day and during his appearance on the palace balcony.

It was originally made for the coronation of his grandfather George VI in 1937 and contains 2,868 diamonds, 17 sapphires, 11 emeralds, four rubies and 269 pearls and weighs over a kilogram.

Historic Royal Palaces, the independent charity which looks after the tower, said the Crown Jewels were not damaged during the incident.

It added that the tower was open to the public, and that the Jewel House, which is home to the historic treasures, temporarily closed while police investigated but has now reopened.

Donald Trump’s war on drugs is fraught with danger for the president

Back in the dim, distant mists of September, Donald Trump decreed that the Department of Defense, sitting under the purview of the Pentagon, should be rebadged as the Department of War – ideally said with a deep, macho roar like in those action movie trailers.

But something else happened in September that has led some to say that perhaps it should be re-rebadged again. This time, as the department of war crimes.

Three months ago, the defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, ordered a dramatic change in policy to tackle the flow of drugscoming from Venezuela. The US military would be deployed to blow any vessel suspected of carrying narcotics out of the water. A high-speed motor boat was off the Caribbean coast when it was blown to smithereens by a US missile. Hegseth asserted these were drug runners – or narco-terrorists – and this was sending a strong message. Of that there is no doubt.

No evidence has yet been provided that they were drug traffickers, or that they were part of a cartel, or that there were drugs on board, or that the boat was on its way to the US. There has been no oversight of this legally contentious operation. Donald Trump delightedly reposted on his Truth Social platform the video of the vessel meeting its high explosives end as the missile struck its target. The assumption was that all the sailors/narco-baddies aboard went down with the boat.

But last Friday, The Washington Post had its own explosive (sorry) version of events. According to the paper, two of the crew had survived the first missile strike. The allegation is that Hegseth had decreed there should be no survivors and so a second missile was fired to kill the two sailors left clinging to the wreckage. In the most ghastly military euphemism for making sure that everyone is dead, the operation is being described as a “double tap”.

There are Republicans and Democrats who have now come out and said this quite simply constitutes a war crime. When Donald Trump was asked about it on Air Force One, he professed ignorance. He could clearly see the danger of the accusations.

If you have two survivors, why not arrest them, put them on trial, find out who is paying them and who the masterminds of the operation are? Hegseth has denied giving a verbal order to kill everyone aboard. Instead, he’s pointed the finger at the naval commander, Admiral Frank “Mitch” Bradley, who is now being summoned to speak to congressional leaders about the chain of command that led to this.

Democratic lawmakers who issued a video saying servicemen and women should only follow orders that are in line with the US constitution and military rules of engagement have been threatened with hanging, yes hanging, by Donald Trump on grounds of sedition.

In the cabinet room of the White House this week, Hegseth sitting next to Trump was in full-Maga, no apology, no surrender, all guns blazing defiance. He hadn’t given the order; the admiral has his support. These are bad guys. And this is just the beginning.

Not for the first time there are those predicting Hegseth’s demise. There is a lot of wishful thinking in this from his detractors – and there are plenty of them in Washington.

He also had the embarrassment this week of the Inspector General’s report on the “signalgate” scandal, when top-secret plans to bomb Houthi rebel positions were shared with – err – the editor of The Atlantic magazine.

But we all know that, as far as Trump is concerned, competence is nothing like as valued a commodity as loyalty. And the Fox News anchor who was improbably catapulted to be defence secretary has plenty of that. Trump also won’t want to give in to the baying mob demanding Hegseth’s head. That would look weak. But if Hegseth starts to damage Trump, well, then the calculus changes.

To date, over a hundred sailors from a number of different Venezuelan vessels have been killed by strikes. In Hegseth’s telling, there are a lot more who are going to die.

The problem is that in America, the overwhelming majority of drug deaths are caused by Fentanyl, and there ain’t no Fentanyl coming from Venezuela; there’s cocaine and not that much of it in the grand scheme of things.

And then we get to the complicating bit of the story. If these extra-judicial killings are a show of America’s determination to crack down on drug runners, how can you explain the presidential pardon issued by Donald Trump to Juan Orlando Hernandez?

He’s the former president of Honduras who was sentenced to 45 years imprisonment for drug trafficking. He’d been in prison in West Virginia after a trial in which the court was told how he had protected the Honduran cartels while they were flooding the US with hundreds of tonnes of cocaine. In his trial, the court was also told that he had accepted a million-dollar bribe from the drugs overlord, Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, to turn a blind eye to the operations of his cartel.

The judge in Hernandez’s trial said the punishment should serve as a warning to “well-educated, well-dressed” individuals who gain power and think their status insulates them from justice when they do wrong.

But in Trump’s America, it is never that straightforward. Pardons go to those who support and admire Donald J Trump. It is the expression of the purest political power that a president can pardon whoever he likes. And Donald Trump is doing just that. So in recent weeks, we have had a slew of pardons given to Trump allies – and now the former president of Honduras, who was charged after an extensive CIA and FBI operation, walks free too. The Hernandez family have been lavish in their praise and fulsome in their admiration. And anyway, the prosecution of Hernandez took place while Joe Biden was president, so it must have been politically motivated.

But if you oppose the president, you can expect the worst.

Maybe the extraordinary US military build-up off the coast of Venezuela is purely about drug trafficking, but it becomes ever harder to believe that that is what it’s all about.

The Venezuelan dictator, Nicolas Maduro, must be wishing he’d been nicer to Donald Trump in the past.

Aston Villa thrust themselves into title race by exposing Arsenal flaw

Emi Buendia scored with the last kick of the game as Aston Villa blew the Premier League title race wide open with a dramatic 2-1 victory over leaders Arsenal.

Buendia scored in the fifth minute of time added on to end the Gunners’ 11-game unbeaten run in the league and cut the gap between them and the visitors to just three points at the summit.

It was a thoroughly deserved victory for Unai Emery’s side, who have now won nine of their last 10 Premier League games and have firmly entered the title race.

They had looked like being denied as Leandro Trossard’s early second-half goal cancelled out Matty Cash’s first-half fizzer, and the Gunners were holding firm.

But Buendia’s strike at the death won it and delivered a potentially damaging blow to a club who have a nervous disposition when it comes to sticking it out in title races.

Emery, who was replaced at the Emirates Stadium by Mikel Arteta, will deny his side can win the league, but they are a match for anyone and will be feared.

Villa put Arsenal under duress from the start, and they could have taken the lead inside the opening 20 minutes, but for a brilliant stop by goalkeeper David Raya to deny Ollie Watkins.

The ball broke to John McGinn and he played in the England international, who wriggled past Jurrien Timber and Ben White and looked primed to score until Raya sprang to his left and pulled off a fine save.

They fired another warning in the 29th minute when Morgan Rogers’s cross from the left made it all the way to the back post, where Cash fired a goalbound shot that was brilliantly blocked by Declan Rice.

But Arsenal did not take heed, and Villa went ahead in the 36th minute. This time, a Pau Torres cross took a nick off Timber and Cash took advantage of Eberechi Eze switching off to lash home.

It gave Villa a deserved half-time lead and Eze’s punishment for his costly back-post nap was a half-time hauling.

Trossard, the man to replace him, came close to equalising in the 50th minute but he put a volley just the wrong side of the post.

Two minutes later, the Belgian did find the back of the net as the Gunners drew level. Arsenal made headway down the right and Emiliano Martinez could only get a hand to Saka’s cross, which fell to Trossard at the back post to ram home.

It was a lacklustre start to the second half by Villa, and they were punished, but their response was good.

Watkins again tested Raya with a low shot that the Spaniard was equal to. Arsenal then regained the upper hand and briefly began to push Villa back.

And Martinez was called into action to make a flying stop, getting fingertips to Martin Odegaard’s 20-yard shot.

Villa roused, and Donyell Malen was gifted a chance to win it in the 77th minute when Riccardo Califiori missed his clearance, but the Dutchman dragged just wide.

Just when it seemed to be heading for a draw, Buendia intervened at the death, stroking home after an almighty goalmouth scramble to send Emery tearing down the touchline in delight.

Rayner forced to deny pact with Wes Streeting for Labour leadership

Angela Rayner has been forced to deny claims she has been invited to form a “joint ticket” with Wes Streeting to take over the Labour leadership.

A source close to the former deputy prime minister insisted “there is no vacancy and there is no pact”, adding Ms Rayner will “not be played like a pawn”.

It comes after there were reports in The Telegraph that allies close to the health secretary were pressing for an alliance between the two Labour MPs, described by sources as “joint ticket” or “unity” pact.

Under the alleged proposal, Ms Rayner could be promised a cabinet role, a possible return to deputy PM or even a lifetime peerage if she backed Mr Streeting in a leadership bid.

A spokesperson for Mr Streeting described the claims as “completely untrue” and said people appeared to be getting “carried away” over his support for the ex-cabinet minister.

Last month, the health secretary was forced to deny plotting to unseat the prime minister in what he called “self-defeating and self-destructive” claims. Mr Streeting then criticised a “toxic” culture in Downing Street after anonymous briefings against him.

It was reported that the attacks on Mr Streeting were a ploy to warn off potential leadership contenders, although the prime minister has said he was assured they did not come from No 10.

Ms Rayner resigned as deputy prime minister in September after an investigation into unpaid stamp duty on her flat. Her allies previously slammed claims that she is eyeing up a Labour leadership bid as “false”, with the Ashton-under-Lyne MP herself insisting she has “not gone away” from frontline politics.

Back in September, at the Labour conference, Mr Streeting called for her to return to government just weeks after she resigned.

To a huge cheer, the health secretary told the Labour party conference in Liverpool: “We need her back.”

On Friday, it was reported that multiple Labour sources said it was MPs close to Mr Streeting who had approached Ms Rayner about the prospect of a pact – allowing the health secretary to deny personal involvement.

Ms Rayner has discussed the approaches with some of her supporters, according to the publication.

One supporter of Ms Rayner told The Telegraph: “There have been huge overtures, including very senior-level party people, basically wanting to broker a peace deal. She knows he would lose if she stood against him. He knows that too. It’s why they’re reaching out.”

Mr Streeting, who is on the centre-right of the party, does not have the same popularity as Ms Rayner, who is on the left of the party, among Labour members.

But a spokesperson for Mr Streeting said: “This is a silly season story and completely untrue.

“Wes’s entire focus is on getting the NHS through this winter, and the only deal he’s interested in doing is with the resident doctors to avert strikes.

“People appear to be getting carried away and misinterpreting his support for Angela as something other than supporting a good person going through a difficult time.”

And a source close to Ms Rayner said: “There is no vacancy and there is no pact. Amidst all the stirring and silly games, Angela is focused on representing her constituents and ensuring that this government delivers.

“Angela is made of tough stuff and she will not be played like a pawn.”

Sir Keir last month dismissed talk of leadership challenges as “wasted” time, when asked by reporters whether the briefing was helpful and what his message would be to allies considering making similar moves.

He said: “My message would be very much that every minute that we are not talking about the cost of living, and straining every sinew to ensure that those that need our help in relation to the cost of living and feeling better off, and having a better health service, and feeling safer and more secure in their community, is a minute wasted.”

Labour continues to poll at an average of 18 per cent of the vote, far below Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.

Perfect portraits: from groups to selfies and candid pics, expert tips

Portrait photography has come a long way from the days where everyone needed to be smiling directly into the camera, as a flash bulb popped.

And in fact, following on from an era where social media sites offered very curated, sometimes heavily filtered snapshots of our lives, more natural, candid images that really show off our personalities and experiences are now very much on trend. Think authentic photos of genuine moments where no-one is really paying attention to the camera. Instead they’re focused on enjoying what’s happening and the people they are with. For example, friends around a table enjoying a drink and a chat. Families engaged in a favourite activity. Photos that look like a glimpse into someone’s normal every day.

The best way to capture these in-the-moment shots? On a mobile: our ever-present, hand-held, do-everything device that has steadily taken over photography in the 26 years since the first camera phone appeared. Samsung’s newest device, the Galaxy S25 FE offers a wealth of photography-first features, from multiple cameras, lenses and wide angle settings, to in-built AI technology that will help you take the best possible pictures, then easily edit them afterwards. And as a photographer who runs masterclasses in mobile photography I couldn’t wait to try it out.

The phone itself is slim and lightweight, which makes it so much easier to hold steady, for clear, crisp, blur-free images, and take discreet, candid snaps.

Of course, we all have friends, family members and even pets who love performing for the camera. But for those who are a bit more reluctant to step into the frame, the Galaxy S25 FE offers a whole host of easy-to-use, fun AI features that will have even the most camera-shy feeling completely confident and ready for their close-up.

Samsung’s Drawing Assist function is a prime example and was an absolute hit with my kids, transforming our Sunday afternoon walk from a litany of moaning and dragging feet into a fun-filled adventure involving a lucky escape from the shark that apparently now lives in the park pond, and flying through the air with some giant balloons.

And all it took was a few simple, if strategically positioned snaps and some quick sketches using the Sketch to Image* function when editing the photo. This works best when you have some space in the frame around your subjects so you can easily draw what you want to add. In the shark image, for example, we needed enough water to the left of my kids for the shark to emerge from.

In the photo where the children are flying with the balloons, I needed them to be high up against the sky, and I also wanted the trees visible to add some context to the story we were trying to tell. They’re on top of the boulders, but I had to crouch down on the ground to cut out the houses in the background. By using the Generative Edit** function I was then able to replace the boulders with trees and then used Sketch to Image to draw in some balloons to make it look like they were floating away.

You don’t need to be an amazing artist for Sketch to Image to work well either, just enough line and shape for the app to recognise what you want to add into your image. The only limit here is your imagination and creativity. Involving the kids in some fun photography also meant that I got to capture some real, candid moments of them in the beautiful Autumn sunshine, with none of the usual complaints.

While playing around with reality can be fun, the Galaxy S25FE’s other AI features can also be used to make more subtle adjustments to enhance your images.

Just a few minutes of work with the Generative Edit function on a day out with a friend, helped me erase two unwanted photobombers from a photo (in which she perfectly co-ordinated with the graffitied heart wall in Borough Market). While removing some distracting weedkiller from the table where my cat was basking in the sunshine ensured the perfect pic where I can really appreciate him in all his fluffy glory.

Aside from fun and helpful editing functions, the phone’s AI technology is also running in the background to give your photos a boost, whatever and whenever you are capturing them.

This is great when you’re shooting challenging lighting conditions, for example at night. Dark, grainy and blurred photos are a thing of the past, with Samsung’s Nightography feature. Tapping the yellow moon icon that appears in dim lighting will enable this clever function which captures multiple images and then uses AI to blend them together to create one sharper, brighter image.

This can take a few seconds, so you’ll need to keep very still when using this feature – if you can, brace your arms on a table and hold the phone with two hands to keep the camera as steady as possible. It also helps if your subject is still, so this is more for capturing adults and older kids than snapping a restless pet or fast-moving child.

For these trickier subjects, from youngsters to four-legged friends, the excellent autofocus on the device makes for pin-sharp portraits rendered in high definition. And if you couple that with the outstanding Samsung colour profile you get beautifully saturated, nicely contrasted images which really pop. All the colours are beautifully rendered and all skin tones (and fur tones) are true to life. No filters are needed here.

And this is not just true of portraits you take of other people. The 12 MP camera lens on the front of the phone makes for gorgeously rendered, high resolution selfies with a variety of crop options, so you can find the perfect angle or image composition.

Taking a selfie at a 1:1 square crop, as well as the standard 3:4 crop option means you can easily include a friend or family member in your photo. And there’s a lovely little feature where you can get the lens to zoom out a little by tapping the ‘two person’ icon to provide a little extra space.

The 9:16 crop option means you can opt for a more flattering, longer and thinner photo while the full frame cop allows you a more zoomed-in selfie.

And if you want to take your selfies to another level, the option to add a little skin toning and smoothing effect and iron out any wrinkles (or in my case remove evidence of a sleepless night) is one of the additional features that makes the selfie camera stand out!

The excellent battery life means you don’t need to worry about it lasting, even after a few hours of photo fun. And when your battery does run down, lightning fast charging will see you back at 60 per cent in just 30 minutes, so you don’t have to wait long until you are good to go again.

Overall, whether it is taking vibrant portraits of yourself or capturing creative, candid images of the people (and pets) in your lives, making memories you’ll want to share is easy and fun with the Galaxy S25 FE.

Kirsty Hamilton is a portrait photographer – find out more at her website and on Instagram.

To find out more about the Samsung Galaxy S25 FE visit Samsung

*Samsung account login and network connection may be required for certain AI features.

**Samsung account login is required. Requires network connection.

‘Too scary to be in a tent’: On the front lines of the homeless refugee crisis

Less than a week after becoming street homeless, an Ethiopian refugee came to the Refugee Council when her latent tuberculosis was at risk of becoming active.

Just 28 days after receiving her refugee status, she was forced to sleep in a tent in south London after she was evicted from an asylum hotel in the last week of September.

Like many refugees left street homeless, she experienced a constant sense of danger and struggled to sleep. But even when she was finally able to find housing, she was faced with a difficult decision.

Unable to afford food, she would experience burning sensations in her stomach as a side effect; twice a week, she commuted to hospital, where personnel gave her controlled doses of the medication. The inconsistent nature of homelessness increased the risk of her tuberculosis becoming infectious.

“It became uncontrolled because her homelessness didn’t allow her to regulate her medication,” says Hillary Kent, a destitution casework coordinator for Refugee Council.

“The only housing that was available after two months homeless was all the way in far west London,” she adds.

The refugee had found a sense of community at the local church near where she was sleeping rough in south London. “The choice became about whether you give up your community to seek a safe, stable home.” Ms Kent says. “She cried on the phone and said, ‘I don’t know how I choose.’”

Frontline workers like Ms Kent have warned The Independent that refugees face homelessness and destitution this winter as the Home Office has paused a 56-day move-on pilot. Charities like Crisis have said they are being “forced into crisis response mode” as frontline staff print rough sleeping guides in multiple languages and offer tents to refugees.

Seána Roberts, a caseworker at Merseyside Refugee Support Network, said that refugees who have come to the UK having experienced torture, rape and physical violence were on the verge of homelessness, and some of these people were so traumatised that they walk the streets at night, going in and out of cafes that might be open because “it’s too scary to be in a tent”.

Of the 100 refugees who approach Ms Roberts’ team a week, seeking the housing and benefits support needed to establish a future in the UK after leaving Home Office asylum accommodation, she estimates that between 30 and 40 per cent of these people are at high risk of homelessness.

The pilot was originally announced in December last year to give refugees 56 days to leave asylum seeker accommodation and find a new place to live, as opposed to the 28-day move-on notice. After a summer where members of the public protested outside asylum hotels across the country, the Home Office introduced a package of changes in September to speed up the asylum process, including a pause on the pilot.

While pregnant women, families, and people with disabilities have been given exception to this change, concern remains as a large number of refugees entering the UK are young, single people – and the freshly curtailed policy has sparked confusion among local authorities.

Ruth Lister told The Independent she was “immensely disappointed” with the Home Office’s decision to reverse the move-on policy after she had campaigned for a decade to change it to 56 days, even tabling a private member’s bill to make the change permanent.

While praising the government for speeding up decisions, Baroness Lister expressed concern that the decision to shorten the move-on policy would leave more people in destitution.

“That will leave a lot of a bigger group, who find that they are being turfed out after 28 days, which simply is not enough time to sort out your accommodation, your universal credit, bank account, and so forth, especially if you’re relatively new to the country.

“My worry is that it is going to mean greater destitution, greater homelessness as we go into the winter months, as local authorities have pointed out, and in the longer term it undermines the integration of refugees.”

Data published by the Home Office shows the government has granted protection to 40,503 people so far this year. In the third quarter alone, 11,643 people were granted refugee status and 1,182 were granted humanitarian protection, indicating that thousands of people are at risk of homelessness.

Charities are already seeing an impact on their services; Refugees At Home told The Independent that the number of street homeless refugees referred to them had more than doubled since the decision. New Horizon Youth Centre, dealing with youth homelessness in London, had 56 new young people come to its day centre after being evicted from NASS accommodation, a 19 per cent increase on September 2025 and a 70 per cent increase on August-September 2025.

Coco Claxton, a refugee integration and housing lead for the Single Homeless Prevention Service (SHPS) in Brent, said that her team was having to file for extended eviction notices from the Home Office and already, she’s had to support a client who was forced to sleep in a park for two days after they could not arrange an extension at the hotel in time.

“The supported accommodation provider would not accept the client in question without medical evidence of his health needs, which we were not able to get in time for his eviction date,” she says. “So he had to rough-sleep for two days. He was staying in a park.”

Ms Claxton’s team have printed out rough sleeping guides in a number of languages that detail how refugees can keep themselves safe, where they can get hot meals and emergency medical care without a fixed address, and even how to connect with Street Link.

“This is sort of a preparatory measure for the winter, where we are expecting a huge number of rough sleeping NAS leavers, within the borough. Obviously, it’s going to look different in different local areas, in terms of what they can expect.

“We are having to share information about how to book hostels, for example, at reduced rates, where to go in the event that you are rough-sleeping.”

Her team was forced to pay £115 for one female refugee to go to Birmingham, where they secured emergency supported accommodation for her at short notice as her eviction from Home Office accommodation loomed large.

“Because she doesn’t have universal credit in place, we’re having to support her to take out an advance from universal credit, of £400, so she can cover the cost of travel and food because her UC is not in place yet.

“Once she moves up there this week, she doesn’t have any money in her bank account, and we shouldn’t have to be exploring options in other cities.

“We are having to really stretch ourselves to meet the need. There are a lot of costs associated with that, which are really difficult to absorb for charities. We don’t have those additional funds in place, so they are being very stretched.”

Already, the Home Office has started to receive challenges against the reversion. Public Law firm Deighton Pierce Glynn have taken on at least 16 cases where refugees faced homelessness, and at least three high court judges have separately issued orders disapplying the Home Office’s policy since the end of October.

Megan Smith, a solicitor from DPG, said: “We have now secured several urgent orders from the court requiring the Home Secretary to extend the move-on period for our clients to stop them from becoming homeless. Our clients have done all they can to secure alternative accommodation and financial stability but have not been able to do so in the short 28-day notice period for eviction given by the Home Office.

“We represent just a fraction of the people impacted by the sudden curtailment of the 56-day pilot. We continue to urge the Home Secretary to stop evicting people into street homelessness and to alleviate the pressure on already under-resourced local authorities and charities.”

The Independent has approached the Home Office and the Local Government Association for comment.

Heavy rain and flooding set to arrive as Met Office issues warning

More than half a month’s rain could fall in parts of south-west England and Wales, with wet and windy weather forecast for the weekend and through to Tuesday.

The Met Office has issued a yellow weather warning for the region spanning from the Isles of Scilly up to Gloucester, and west to St David’s in Pembrokeshire.

For 24 hours from 6pm on Monday, outbreaks of rain will become persistent and heavy, the forecaster said, with up to 40mm of rainfall in some areas and 60-80mm of rain over Dartmoor and high ground in south Wales, which could amount to more than half the average monthly rainfall in December.

More than a dozen flood warnings remained in place on Saturday for England, with nine in Scotland and two in Wales.

Gusts of up to 40mph hit parts of the south coast overnight into Saturday, with firefighters in Seaford, East Sussex, called to reports that a garage roof and door had become detached in the high winds.

East Sussex Fire and Rescue Service said its crews were called to Victor Close after 6am and were working to make several homes safe.

Temperatures are expected to remain mild on Saturday and Sunday, but gusty winds and further rainfall are set to persist, with heavy downpours more likely in south Wales, south-west England and Cumbria.

Rain in south Wales and south-west England on saturated ground could lead to difficult travel conditions, the Met Office warned.

Northern Ireland, north-east England and south-east Scotland have the best chance of drier weather this weekend.

Another band of rain is forecast to make its way across the country in a north-easterly direction on Sunday, with persistent spells likely in northern areas.

The Met Office’s deputy chief meteorologist Steven Keates said: “A deepening area of low pressure will approach the UK from the south-west later on Monday, bringing with it heavy rain and strong winds, which are likely to affect the UK between late Monday and early Wednesday.

“At present, the exact track, depth, and timings of this low are uncertain, which makes it harder to determine where will be most impacted by strong winds and/or heavy rain.

“This system has the potential to cause disruption, and severe weather warnings are likely to be issued over the weekend as details become clearer. We therefore urge people to keep up-to-date with the latest Met Office forecast.”

The Met Office forecast for the rest of December remains unsettled, with further periods of low pressure predicted.

Meteorologists said it is too early to provide an accurate forecast for the Christmas period.

Showers and winds easing with clearer spells developing for a time, under which patchy frost may form. Cloud and rain returning to the southwest later as the breeze strengthens again.

Dry to start in the northeast with patchy fog clearing. Rain, locally heavy, spreads northeastwards during the day, accompanied by blustery winds. Chilly in the north but milder further south.

Somewhat drier and brighter on Monday, though showers still possible. Turning widely wet and windy into Tuesday, and remaining so in the north on Wednesday. Mild for early December.