Burnham hits back at claims he is plotting to replace Starmer as PM
Andy Burnham has hit back at renewed speculation that he is plotting to return to Westminster and oust Sir Keir Starmer as Labour leader.
The Greater Manchester mayor, who was the focus of similar rumours at the Labour Party conference in September, reacted with fury at the reports in Sunday newspapers over his alleged plans.
Taking to X (former Twitter), he said: “Quite a lot of rubbish in the papers today. Reminds me why I left Westminster in the first place!”
Former Labour minister Mr Burnham, who has repeatedly refused to explicitly rule out a leadership bid in recent months, is said to have identified a potential parliamentary seat from which to challenge Sir Keir.
The Mail On Sunday reported that Commons allies of the mayor had said they had found him a seat which was “likely to come free” in the coming months. Mr Burnham’s team declined to comment.
But it came as another potential contender for Sir Keir’s job, home secretary Shabana Mahmood, ducked questions on her own plans.
She did not deny that she would like the top job just days after a high profile event with Sir Tony Blair which many present saw as an endorsement by the former PM for her as the next leader.
While insisting Labour figures should “focus on the day job” of delivering for the public and Sir Keir is “not going”, Ms Mahmood noted that “there is a Muslim woman as home secretary” which means there could be one as prime minister in the future.
The continuing speculation has come as Labour continue to struggle in the polls stuck around just 20 per cent around 10 points behind Nigel Farage and Reform with many also switching to the Greens.
In addition, it was revealed last week that 100,000 previously paid up Labour members have left the party since last year’s election leaving Reform as the biggest membership party.
Downing Street has already briefed out concerns that health secretary Wes Streeting is plotting to oust the PM while there are reports that energy secretary Ed Miliband is considering a return as Labour leader and former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner wants the top job too.
But amid the fresh speculation about Mr Burnham’s ambitions, the home secretary said everyone within the party had their “role to play” in backing the Government after reports the Greater Manchester Mayor is seeking a Westminster comeback, which his allies have not denied.
Speaking to broadcasters on Sunday, Ms Mahmood suggested that “every single person” had thought about the top job, but added: “That is not the same as plotting to overthrow a prime minister for God’s sake.”
Asked whether she would consider a leadership bid if Sir Keir stepped down, Ms Mahmood told the BBC’s Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg show: “Keir Starmer is not going.”
The home secretary, who has previously indicated she harbours ambitions for No 10, said: “The prime minister is getting on with doing his job.
“I am a member of his government. I have a big job of my own to do, and that is the only thing I’m focused on.”
Ms Mahmood urged Labour MPs to help make sure “we don’t waste a single second of the time that we have in government”.
“I think that all of us in government and in the Labour Party have a responsibility to focus on the day job and to get on with delivering for the British people,” she said.
“So actually, this is on the whole of the government and all of the Parliamentary Labour Party and the whole Labour movement to make sure we don’t waste a single second of the time that we have in government.”
Asked about Mr Burnham, she told Sky News’ Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips programme: “Labour governments don’t come along very often, and every minute that we have in government is precious. We have a big agenda. We have to crack on with delivering.
“It’s a privilege to be in government. I’m focused on the big job that I have as Home Secretary, and my advice to all colleagues everywhere would be that it’s a precious privilege, and we mustn’t waste a single minute of it.”
She said: “Wherever you sit in the Labour family, we all have a role to play in supporting the Labour government deliver for the people of this country.”
Only 1,000 people turn out to Tommy Robinson’s ‘Christmas service’
Far-right activist Tommy Robinson’s latest event drew far fewer numbers on Saturday, as he led what he called an effort to “put the Christ back into Christmas” in London.
Only around 1,000 people gathered in Whitehall on Saturday for the carol concert, according to reported estimates.
It marks a sharp drop off in attendance compared to the estimated 110,000 to 150,000 people. people who participated in a London protest led by Robinson, whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, in September.
Ahead of the event, Bishops at the Diocese of Southwark said they were “gravely concerned” about the use of Christian symbols to “justify racism and anti-migrant rhetoric”.
Writing for The Independent, Right Reverend David Walker, the Bishop of Manchester, also hit out at fake claims that “Christmas has been cancelled” and criticised those seeking to politicise Christianity.
After gathering outside Downing Street on Saturday afternoon, crowds listened to speakers on stage give readings and sing hymns.
Attendees received hymn sheets, while a vendor sold St George’s flags and Santa hats as chants of “Christ is King” and tributes to Charlie Kirk were heard.
Closing the event, Yaxley-Lennon said he used to “hate the church” but met a pastor in prison who taught him about the bible.
A priest sitting among the crowd shouted that Jesus had been a migrant.
“I’ve worked with lots of former offenders like Tommy Robinson,” she said, offering to speak to attendees about Christianity.
His Unite The Kingdom gathering was separated from a counter-protest organised by Stand Up To Racism in central London at the same time.
While previous confrontations between similar groups on Whitehall earlier this year resulted in police violence, Saturday’s demonstration appeared to proceed peacefully.
In September, Robinson organised a Unite The Kingdom rally in central London attended by between 110,000 and 150,000 people.
More than 150 reports of anti-Muslim hate were made to the Tell Mama charity monitoring the issue in the seven days following the rally.
Officers were assaulted as they faced “significant aggression” from protesters, the force said.
Projectiles were thrown by Robinson protesters towards the counter-demonstrators as thousands from both sides stared each other down on Whitehall.
Posting on X before the event on Saturday, Robinson said: “I want to remind everyone this is a religious celebration, this is not a political event.
“No face coverings, and no drinking please, as we have always done, let’s self police, behave respectfully and let’s make sure we honour our faith, our culture, and our heritage in the very best way we can.”
Two arrests were made overall. One person was arrested earlier in the day for an assault on a mounted officer in nearby Whitehall Place. The second arrest was for a man suspected of directing homophobic abuse towards an officer at a previous protest.
Trains cancelled, homes set to flood and roads closed amid heavy rain
A Met Office amber weather warning is now in force as “very heavy and persistent rain” is expected to continue into next week, with a potential danger to life in some areas.
Homes and businesses in parts of northern England and south-west Scotland are likely to become flooded on Sunday and Monday, the forecaster warned.
The amber rain warning, which came into effect at midnight on Sunday, covers south-west Scotland including Dumfries and Galloway, the Lothian Borders and Strathclyde.
Some areas could see 110mm to 130mm of rainfall before the alert expires at 11.59pm tonight.
Another amber alert is in effect for Cumbria, lasting until 6pm on Monday.
ScotRail announced on X that “due to forecast heavy rain across Dumfries and Galloway, for safety reasons, services between Kilmarnock and Dumfries will not operate” on Sunday.
Network Rail Scotland also announced that several rail lines, including Bridge of Allan–Perth, the West Coast Main Line, and services between Glasgow Central and Stranraer or Carlisle via Kilmarnock, would operate with speed restrictions from 6am on Sunday due to weather concerns.
The A66 in County Durham and Cumbria was closed in both directions due to high winds between the A1M at Scotch Corner and M6 at Penrith, National Highways announced.
A yellow rain alert is in place for Northern Ireland until 6am on Monday, with the Met Office warning “flooding of a few homes and businesses is likely”.
Marco Petagna, meteorologist at the Met Office, said: “Really, it’s a very slow moving band (of rain). That’s why we’re going to see those high rainfall totals.
“So the warnings are out quite widely across the sort of north-west of the UK, even down into Wales as well.
“Over the next few days, we’re looking at 20mm to 70mm towards the north-west of the UK, so one to three inches of rain, fairly widely.
“In those amber warning areas, we could see 200mm or more,” Mr Petagna added.
“So that’s eight inches or more – and yes, obviously, quite likely to give some flooding issues over the next few days.”
A yellow rain alert remains in place across South West Scotland, Central, Tayside and Fife, Highlands and Eilean Siar until 11.59pm on Sunday.
Further warnings cover parts of England, including the East Midlands, North East England, North West England, Yorkshire and Humber, until 6pm on Monday.
Those in the areas covered by the amber alerts for rain should avoid floodwater where possible. The forecaster said it is not safe to drive, walk or swim through floodwater.
People affected by fast-flowing or deep floodwater should call 999 and wait for help, the forecaster added.
It will be better to avoid travelling by road in some areas as conditions are expected to become “potentially dangerous” because of flooding.
The washout will likely lead to power cuts and some communities could be cut off because of flooded roads.
The Met Office advised residents in affected areas to prepare a flood kit, containing insurance and any other important documents, a torch and spare batteries, a first-aid kit and prescription medicines.
The kit should also contain supplies for looking after family members or pets, as well as warm and waterproof clothes, blankets, and food and water, the Met Office said.
“It’s not until later Monday, towards the end of Monday, before that front really clears away from the north-west of England,” Mr Petagna said.
The UK is likely to see mild temperatures of 10C to 13C over the next couple of days, which is three or four degrees above the seasonal average, Mr Petagna added.
Though it is expected the weather will settle around Tuesday next week, the respite is likely to be brief with more heavy rain set to come in from the west from Wednesday, Mr Petagna said.
“It’s going to be fairly widespread. I think much of the UK will see some wet and windy weather later in the week, again.
“But we need to keep an eye on that because there’s potential further warnings might be needed.
“There is, heading towards Christmas, a hint that things could start to quieten down. But the next week to 10 days look pretty unsettled.”
Hosts strike first through bizarre Woltemade own goal
Sunderland defeated Newcastle United at the Stadium of Light as one of the biggest derbies in the country returned to the Premier League.
The two rivals faced off in the first Tyne-Wear league derby since a 1-1 draw at St James’ in March 2016, with Sunderland a point and two places above the Magpies.
A physical first half reminded of previous physical battles and had the feel of an old school clash between rivals with chances on goal being outdone by heavy tackles and a desire to keep the ball out.
Newcastle’s Dan Burn was injured in a challenge with Nordi Mukiele and had to be removed before the half-time break as the teams went into the tunnel all square. That changed quickly after the restart as Sunderland took the lead through a bizarre own goal from Nick Woltemade, heading a cross past his own goalkeeper in an attempt to clear the ball.
Newcastle improved through substitutions made by Eddie Howe but they couldn’t force an equaliser and the spoils were won by the Mackems.
Relive the updates from the Stadium of Light below:
Full-time! Sunderland 1-0 Newcastle
90+7 mins: Granit Xhaka caught a blow to the left eye and there’s blood coming from his head.
He goes off for treatment and Sunderland have 10-men as the game resumes.
Newcastle loft a cross into the box, there’s a scramble and Wissa goes down.
The referee points to the keeper for a goal kick.
The whistle then goes and the Stadium of Light erupts in a loud, loud roar!
Sunderland have won the Tyne-Wear derby.
Sunderland 1-0 Newcastle
90+4 mins: Joe Willock and Wilson Isidor square off with each other after Robin Roefs is cleaned out.
Malick Thiaw seems to receive a yellow card as well after the argy-bargy all dies down.
Due to that there’ll be a few more minutes to play.
Sunderland 1-0 Newcastle
90 mins: Four minutes of added time to play.
Newcastle are running out of time to find their equaliser.
Sunderland 1-0 Newcastle
88 mins: Eddie Howe looks worried. I don’t think he’s seen enough from his players to be sure they can score here.
The Sunderland fans are singing away. They seem confident.
Willock runs the ball out of play trying to make a tackle and Newcastle have to defend again.
Sunderland 1-0 Newcastle
85 mins: There are plenty of nervous faces in the crowd among both sets of supporters.
Sunderland have the lead but it is Newcastle who are pressing to score.
Can they get an equaliser and silence the crowd late in this game?
Sunderland 1-0 Newcastle
78 mins: Yoana Wissa is on for Newcastle having replaced Woltemade.
The cross comes in from Barnes on the right and Wissa throws himself at it only for Roefs to cling onto the ball.
Sunderland 1-0 Newcastle
75 mins: Save!
Wilson Isidor has the chances to seal the points for Sunderland by bringing down an aerial ball on his chest and smoking a shot at the near post.
Ramsdale leaps to the left and pushes it wide! A good save from the Newcastle man.
Coincidentally that was also Sunderland first shot on target despite being one goal ahead.
Sunderland 1-0 Newcastle
72 mins: Newcastle’s substitutions have given Newcastle more attackign flavour.
As such Brian Brobbey and Bertrand Traore are taken off with Wilson Isidor and Trai Hume brought on.
Sunderland are trying to shut this game down with more defenders on the pitch.
Sunderland 1-0 Newcastle
69 mins: Reinildo wins the header to clear a Guimaraes corner.
Newcastle recycle the ball with an aerial pass from the right but Traore is there to turn it behind for another corner.
This time Roefs comes and plucks it out of the air.
Sunderland 1-0 Newcastle
66 mins: Guimaraes is the man again who takes the attack to Sunderland.
It’s another curling shot from the edge of the penalty area and Roefs gets across to deny him.
Newcastle are being more expansive. They’re the ones shifting the momentum.
Haaland heads visitors in front in crunch Premier League clash
Manchester City maintained their pursuit of Arsenal at the top of the Premier League table with a 3-0 win over Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park.
The visitors had been distanced by late drama for the league leaders yesterday but moved back to within two points of their potential title rivals thanks to a double from Erling Haaland and fine strike from Phil Foden. Pep Guardiola’s side did not have things their own way by any means, though, with Yeremy Pino and Adam Wharton striking the woodwork in either half with Palace perhaps the more consistently threatening of the two sides.
But Haaland, who had few touches in the first half, popped up to powerfully head home the opener from Matheus Nunes’s cross just before the interval, before Foden drilled home a second 20 minutes from time. With Palace pressing to cause late drama, Savinho broke free to earn a penalty, which Haaland cooly slotted home in the final moments. Crystal Palace remain fifth having been overtaken by Chelsea on Saturday.
Follow all of the latest from Selhurst Park with our live blog below:
Results elsewhere
Plenty of action around the grounds this afternoon: Aston Villa came from behind to confine West Ham to the bottom three with a 3-2 success; Tottenham endured another tough outing with Nottingham Forest 3-0 home winners at the City Ground; and Sunderland’s first Premier League derby day for nearly a decade was most enjoyable indeed:
Sunderland vs Newcastle live: Score and latest updates from Premier League derby
FT: Crystal Palace 0-3 Manchester City
A comfortable win on the scoresheet for Manchester City, but they really had to work for that. Crystal Palace twice strike the woodwork and were still hunting hard for a goal late on before Savinho’s counter-attack and Erling Haaland’s resultant penalty killed the game for good. Manchester City move back to within two points of league leaders Arsenal.
FULL TIME: Crystal Palace 0-3 Manchester City
Crystal Palace 0-3 Manchester City, 90 + 4 minutes
This scoreline is rather harsh on Crystal Palace. They’ve been pretty good, and unfortunate, this afternoon.
Crystal Palace 0-3 Manchester City, 90 + 1 minutes
A late triple-change from Pep Guardiola, introducing Rayan Ait-Nouri, Rico Lewis and Omar Marmoush. Nico O’Reilly, Bernardo Silva and Erling Haaland the men replaced.
GOAL! Crystal Palace 0-3 MANCHESTER CITY (Erling Haaland, 89 minutes)
Rolled insouciantly home! Erling Haaland has two, Manchester City have three points.
PENALTY! Crystal Palace 0-2 Manchester City, 88 minutes
But Manchester City have a penalty at the other end! A most untimely slip from Tyrick Mitchell lets Savinho in, and away goes the Brazilian with no defender able to catch him. Savinho rounds Dean Henderson, who brings him down with a grasping arm – this would finish it for good…
Crystal Palace 0-2 Manchester City, 87 minutes
Crystal Palace still piling the pressure on…
Crystal Palace 0-2 Manchester City, 86 minutes
Another Richards hurl from the sideline is headed clear by Erling Haaland.
Crystal Palace mount another offensive and Marc Guehi jabs something at goal, but it is light on power and cleared by a Manchester City leg.
Crystal Palace 0-2 Manchester City, 85 minutes
Tijjani Reijnders is trudging off for Manchester City after a busy afternoon in midfield. Savinho on for the final five minutes plus stoppage time.
Education for all: How your skills could make you a great teacher
From construction and engineering to hospitality and beauty, Further Education teaching opens up doors to a wide range of careers. Encompassing a range of technical and vocational courses and qualifications for those over 16 who aren’t studying for a degree, it offers a more hands on, industry-led approach to learning.
Further Education offers a more focused, vocational approach and a fast-track into the workplace. It allows you to build on your existing skills and experience while shaping the next generation of professionals in your field. To find out more, we spoke to Further Education students and teachers about how it works and what they get out of it.
Who can access Further Education?
Further Education qualifications can be started from the age of 16. “It’s a step up from school but it doesn’t involve so much independent learning and research as many Higher Education degrees,” explains Susan Simmonds, 52, a Further Education lecturer in Land and Wildlife Management at Sparsholt College Hampshire. “During this time, learners gain so much maturity and a qualification that can take them out into industry,”
Sometimes this study might be full-time in college, while other Further Education opportunities offer apprenticeships, with students gaining qualifications while working on the job. Overall, the courses are generally more practical and directly linked to industry and preparing learners for their future careers. “These courses give students a wide range of relevant experience, knowledge and skills during a time when they’re maturing, and becoming ready to transition into the world of work,” Susan says.
What Further Education is really like
There are often myths and misconceptions about the world of Further Education. From the learner side, many people don’t necessarily realise the opportunities available to them through Further Education, as Meri, 17, who is studying an Extended Technical Diploma in Land and Wildlife Management Level 3 at Sparsholt College, explains. “Many people I have spoken to don’t realise there are multiple ways to prepare for a career in industry, and that courses like mine can open those doors.”
For Meri, it’s been a really positive experience, and one that has helped prepare her for the workplace. “The college has a lot of contacts with industry and the assignments we do are similar to professional reports.” Meanwhile, Zach, 17, who is on the same course, has also thrived at the Further Education college: “I have been able to meet far more friends and great people and I feel as though it has helped me grow. It’s also provided many opportunities to experience real-world practical work.”
For those training or working as Further Education teachers, often after years spent in a specific industry sector, it’s the students that make their new career so rewarding. David Hobson, 54, who teaches the Motor Vehicle course at Stockton Riverside College, found that the job satisfaction he gets from sharing his personal know-how with the next generation of workers has kept him in Further Education teaching for 16 years. “The benefits of passing on my skills to young people keep me going. It’s an opportunity for me to equip learners with the industry skills and knowledge they need to succeed in their careers”
Susan, who teaches Further Education part-time alongside her work as a Community Ecologist, has had a similar experience: “I find the work really energising. Young people are so full of life and enthusiasm that I come home feeling uplifted.”
Use your skills to teach
Whether it’s part-time alongside your current job or a switch to full-time teaching, Further Education teaching can be a really rewarding and valuable career move.
Teaching in a mixture of colleges (often General Further Education Colleges or Sixth Form Colleges) and Adult and Community Learning Centres, as well as workplace and apprenticeship settings, it can fit around your life and other commitments. While typical full-time contracts are around 35 hours a week, there are also some part-time or flexible options available.
Real world industry experience across a wide range of jobs can set you on a path to becoming a Further Education teacher, with opportunities in everything from construction and healthcare, to engineering, digital, hospitality, tourism and beauty. You don’t always need teaching qualifications to start teaching in further education, you can undertake training on the job which is often funded by your employer.
If, like Susan and David, you see the appeal of sharing the industry knowledge and skills you’ve developed with the next generation, exploring the option of becoming a Further Education teacher can be a great next step. As David points out, “You won’t know how enjoyable it is until you try it.”
Looking for a new role that’s rewarding, flexible and draws on your current career? Why not consider sharing your experience where it matters most – helping inspire the next generation of workers in the field you love? Visit the Further Education website to find out more
Every police force to have specialist rape investigation unit – but not until 2029
Specialist rape and sex offences investigation teams will be established at every police force by 2029, the government has announced.
Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, said tools and tactics used to catch abusers are outdated and must be replaced by dedicated teams at all 43 forces in England and Wales.
Almost 30 forces already have a dedicated rape and serious sexual offence unit, The Independent understands. However, every force will not have one until 2029, the Home Office admitted.
Campaigners have said the delays are not acceptable and will leave survivors with an inconsistent response when they come forward.
The announcement, billed as the “largest crackdown on violence perpetrated against women and girls in British history” also includes a nationwide rollout of domestic abuse protection orders, which have been trialled over the last year.
The reforms are set to be part of the long-awaited Violence Against Women and Girls (VAWG) strategy, due to be unveiled next week.
Ministers have pledged to halve VAWG in the next decade but have faced criticism over delays to publishing their plans.
On Tuesday, chairs of the home affairs committee, justice committee and women and equalities committee wrote to ministers over concerns from VAWG groups, warning that the delay is creating “significant uncertainty” across the sector and sending a message VAWG is “not a government priority”.
Announcing the latest measures, Ms Mahmood, said: “This government has declared violence against women and girls a national emergency.
“For too long, these crimes have been considered a fact of life. That’s not good enough.
“We will halve it in a decade. Today, we announce a range of measures to bear down on abusers, stopping them in their tracks.
“Rapists, sex offenders and abusers will have nowhere to hide.”
Domestic abuse protection orders can impose conditions to help protect victims from domestic abuse, including coercive behaviour, stalking and so-called honour-based violence.
Conditions can include mandatory curfews, electronic tagging, exclusion zones and notification requirements on abusers, with offenders who break orders facing up to five years in jail.
Nearly £2m will also be invested in a network of officers to target violence against women and girls online, the Home Office said.
It is expected to build on the success of an undercover network on child sexual abuse, which has resulted in over 1,700 perpetrators being arrested.
Andrea Simon, director of the End Violence Against Women Coalition, welcomed the reforms but urged police forces to prioritise them without delay.
“All survivors deserve care, support and sensitivity when they take the courageous step to report what happened to them to the police, and to see their case investigated properly and thoroughly for the greatest chance of accessing justice,” she added.
“However, we are concerned that this may not be fully in place until 2029. In the meantime, survivors may often receive an inconsistent response depending on the force area they live in. This is not acceptable.
“Victims of rape are facing enormous challenges in the criminal justice system, with lengthier delays to their cases than any other crime type. We urge police forces to prioritise implementation of these reforms without delay.”
Under Rishi Sunak’s conservative government, the Home Office announced last year that they were rolling out Operation Soteria nationwide, a program which has helped police and prosecutors work more closely together when investigating rape and sexual offences.
Ms Mahmood has previously hinted she is considering major reforms which could drastically reduce the number of police forces in England and Wales.
How Belarus is using smuggling balloons to sow chaos in Lithuania
On Saturday, President Donald Trump‘s envoy John Coale said that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko had promised to stop weather balloons flying from his country into Lithuania.
It came just days after the Lithuanian government was forced to declared a state of national emergency in response to a surge in balloons flying across the border from Belarus, many of them smuggling cigarettes.
In the past year, experts say that some 600 balloons linked to smuggling and 200 drones have entered Lithuanian airspace, prompting a temporary border shutdown and causing havoc at Vilnius airport.
The balloons are thought to have transported tens of thousands of contraband cigarettes over the border. Last weekend, authorities said they seized almost 40,000 packets of cigarettes from just 11 balloons.
Usually, balloons cross the border at night to avoid detection. Once they land, illegal couriers use SIM/GPS-enabled tracking devices to locate them.
Lukashenko, a close ally of Russia, has denied state involvement in the smuggling, arguing it is carried out by criminals taking advantage of low prices in his country.
But Pavel Slunkin, visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, says that this kind of smuggling is “built into the government”. The balloons could be a ploy to pressure Lithuania into entering negotiations with Lukashenko’s dictatorial regime, he suggests.
Relations between Lithuania and Belarus have long been strained, but tensions escalated in October, when Lithuania closed two border checkpoints between the countries for three weeks. In response, Belarus banned Lithuanian lorries from its roads, halting trade. Hundreds of vehicles are still stranded in the country.
Why Lithuania declared an emergency
Lithuania’s border tracking data shows a threefold increase in balloons crossing into the country in 2025 compared to the previous year. The most recent wave has been unusually disruptive to aviation, with a cluster of missions concentrated around Vilnius Airport from October into December.
This has prompted the Lithuanian government to declare “a nationwide emergency situation”, allowing government institutions to coordinate more closely and enlist the support of military units.
Dr Rasmus Nillson, Lecturer in Russian Foreign Policy and Post-Soviet Politics at University College London, suggests the decision to declare an emergency situation is linked to a lack of trust in Nato.
He told The Independent: “Given recent policies and statements emanating from the United States, there is a fear in this part of Europe that local members of Nato will be abandoned in the face of attacks (hybrid or overtly military) from Russia and Belarus.
“While Vilnius might not see such a scenario unfolding in the immediate future, it sees every reason to highlight potential threats from the east to remind other Nato members of its potentially precarious position at the eastern flank of the alliance.”
Why the balloons have destabilised Lithuania
The balloons have caused significant disruption to flights, with more than 350 having been delayed, diverted or canceled since October alone. The financial losses stemming from this now exceed €750,000.
Mr Slunkin suggests the balloons are part of a more overarching strategy. “There is a concept in Russian [and therefore Belarussian] national strategy,” he said. “They call it ‘escalate to deescalate’ – when you increase stakes for the other side to be so high that they wouldn’t be willing to go that far”.
Belarus, he suggests, is seeking to escalate tensions with Lithuania while cosying up to the United States – weakening a key alliance. US President Donald Trump has expressed admiration for Lukashenko in the past, calling him “the highly respected President”. Mr Coale, his new envoy, visited Minsk on Friday to negotiate the release of 1,400 political prisoners.
How it forms part of Putin’s ‘hybrid war’
The Lithuanian government has said the emergency comes in response to a series of “hybrid attacks” by Belarus, in reference to the “hybrid war” that Russia has waged against Western nations since the invasion of Ukraine.
The term describes a military strategy which combines conventional fighting techniques with cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns and drone incursions. Moscow consistently seeks to distance itself from responsibility from such attacks, but the increasing frequency of cases linked to Russia has led most western governments to conclude they form part of Putin’s strategy.
In the UK, numerous cyberattacks, including those targeting the NHS, have been linked to Russia, while drones have been spotted at major airports across Europe. Russia has denied all connection.
Mr Slunkin says Lithuania has two choices: “You negotiate [with Belarus] or you hope the EU and others will deal with the situation.” So far, Lithuania has chosen the latter.