After Trump declared ISIS defeated, US faces new test as detainees move amid Syria power shift
As the U.S. military moves thousands of ISIS detainees across the border into Iraq, Washington is effectively closing the door on the Kurdish era of counter-terrorism and trusting that a unified Syrian state — once its adversary — can now hold the line against a swelling insurgent threat.
The transfer is intended to prevent mass breakouts from facilities long run by Kurdish Syrian Defense Forces now that Syria’s new government has taken control in northeastern Syria.
The shift carries consequences for Washington beyond the immediate fight against ISIS. A breakdown in detainee handling or security during the transition would undermine claims of a durable ISIS defeat — a milestone President Donald Trump declared in 2019 after U.S.-backed forces dismantled the group’s territorial caliphate.
Iraqi intelligence officials are warning that ISIS could again find space to operate amid Syria’s political and security transition, citing internal assessments that put the group’s strength as high as 10,000 fighters. United Nations estimates place the number far lower — about 3,000 Islamic State members across Syria and Iraq as of August 2025 — underscoring the uncertainty U.S. planners face as detention systems fracture, custody shifts across borders, and regional authority is rapidly reconfigured.
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Hamid al-Shatri, head of Iraqi intelligence, told The Washington Post recently that ISIS had grown from roughly 2,000 fighters to as many as 10,000 fighters in just over a year.
“This certainly does pose a danger to Iraq, because ISIS — whether it’s in Syria or Iraq or anywhere in the world — is one organization, and it will certainly try and find ground once more in order to launch attacks,” al-Shatri said.
Brian Carter, a Middle East analyst at the Washington, D.C., free-market American Enterprise Institute think tank, cautioned that Iraqi assessments should be viewed in context, noting that Baghdad has long harbored deep concerns about Syria’s new leadership and its Islamist roots — factors that can shape how Iraqi officials assess the threat emanating from across the border.
Trump declared the U.S. had defeated ISIS in 2019 after U.S.-backed forces dismantled the group’s territorial caliphate. Since then, the group has partially reconstituted as an insurgent network, maintaining sleeper cells across the region.
Fox News Digital reached out to the White House for comment and has yet to receive a reply.
That persistence was underscored Dec. 13, 2025, when an ISIS-affiliated gunman killed U.S. National Guard Sgts. Edgar Brian Torres-Tovar and William Nathaniel Howard in Palmyra, Syria — the first U.S. combat deaths in Syria since the 2024 transition.
The attack prompted a U.S. military response known as Operation Hawkeye Strike, a series of airstrikes targeting more than 100 ISIS infrastructure sites days later. U.S. officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, described the mission as aimed at “eliminating ISIS fighters,” signaling a more aggressive posture as Syria’s landscape fractured.
CHAOS IN SYRIA SPARKS FEARS OF ISIS PRISON BREAKS AS US RUSHES DETAINEES TO IRAQ
For years, the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) guarded roughly 10,000 ISIS detainees in Syria. But that system is now breaking down.
Following the Jan. 18, 14-point agreement brokered by U.S. envoy Tom Barrack, the SDF is being integrated “individually” into the Syrian National Army. This has forced a rapid reorganization of security responsibilities.
The collapse of Kurdish autonomy has directly affected detention operations. Syrian government forces have taken over major sites, including Shaddadi Prison and Panorama Prison, both of which saw intense fighting Jan. 19 during Operation Hawkeye Strike. U.S. military officials have framed the subsequent detainee transfers as a critical effort to prevent a broader security failure.
“We are closely coordinating with regional partners, including the Iraqi government,” said Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command, following the Jan. 21 transfer of the first 150 high-risk fighters to Iraq. “Facilitating the orderly and secure transfer of ISIS detainees is critical to preventing a breakout that would pose a direct threat to the United States.”
Analysts say one of the most delicate challenges facing Syria’s new government is that not everyone held in ISIS detention facilities is actually an ISIS fighter. Years of mass arrests, shifting front lines and inconsistent record-keeping have left authorities with incomplete files on who was detained for terrorism and who was swept up for political or security reasons.
LINDSEY GRAHAM SAYS ‘STRONG CONSENSUS’ TO PROTECT KURDS AS SYRIAN FORCES ADVANCE ON TERRITORY
While up to 7,000 detainees are slated for transfer, the situation remains volatile. Syrian authorities recently completed a takeover of the al-Hol camp, which houses 24,000 people.
Kurdish-led forces said they withdrew from the camp amid “international indifference,” leaving Syrian authorities to manage a population analysts warn could complicate release decisions during a fragile transition.
“There’s always a risk when you’re moving large numbers of people in a hurry,” said Daniel Byman, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Byman said the danger lies not in ISIS’s current strength, but in the conditions surrounding a security transition.
“These groups are weak, right? So this isn’t 2015,” he said. “But chaos is good for ISIS.”
Carter warned that if a ceasefire between SDF and Syrian government forces does not hold, ISIS may work to exploit the fighting.
Byman warned that periods of declining local authority — marked by fewer troops and fractured control — historically create openings.
“If there are fewer troops around, it’s easier for a relatively small group to survive and maybe even grow,” he said.
The U.S. currently has around 900 troops in Syria, and is in the process of withdrawing all troops from Iraq by the end of the year.
“There’s going to be a window of opportunity for ISIS as the Syrian government regains control,” Carter said, warning that security forces distracted by internal reorganization could struggle to maintain pressure.
But, “I think it’s actually a net positive for the United States,” Carter added. “It puts these detainees in a country that has shown an ability to prosecute them.”
Carter noted that Iraq’s purpose-built prisons are better positioned than the often improvised SDF sites.
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As responsibility for tracking ISIS fighters becomes increasingly diffuse, analysts say the outcome will depend on whether regional governments can manage detainees and close gaps during this rapid political transition.
“When you’re saying, ‘we don’t care about your region,’ your ability to coordinate your allies declines,” Byman warned.
Combined war casualties for Russia and Ukraine could hit 2 million, new report warns
A new report is warning that the combined war casualties in the nearly four-year Russia-Ukraine war could hit 2 million by spring 2026. The number includes soldiers killed, injured or missing on both sides of the conflict.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released a report on Tuesday predicting the grim milestone. CSIS states that Russia suffered 1.2 million casualties, including 325,000 troop deaths, between February 2022 and December 2025. It estimates that Ukraine suffered between 500,000 to 600,000 casualties, including 140,000 troop deaths. CSIS estimates that the current combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties could be as high as 1.8 million.
Getting a clear picture of the fatalities and casualties suffered on both sides is not easy as neither Moscow nor Kyiv gives timely data on military losses, according to The Associated Press, which noted that the two countries are also simultaneously focused on amplifying each other’s casualties. Russia has publicly acknowledged the deaths of just over 6,000 soldiers, the AP reported.
The outlet noted that activists and independent journalists have said that reports of military losses have been repressed in Russian media.
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“Despite claims of battlefield momentum in Ukraine, the data shows that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains and is in decline as a major power,” the report reads.
“No major power has suffered anywhere near these numbers of casualties or fatalities in any war since World War II,” the report notes.
Russian battlefield casualties and fatalities have been “significantly higher” than Ukraine’s, according to the report.
CSIS estimates the ratio to be roughly 2.5:1 or 2:1. CSIS points to several reasons for the high Russian casualties and fatalities, including the country’s “failure to effectively conduct combined arms and joint warfare, poor tactics and training, corruption, low morale and Ukraine’s effective defense-in-depth strategy in a war that favors the defense.” The report also states that Russia has accepted taking high casualties as part of its strategy.
“Russia’s attrition strategy has accepted the costs of high casualties in hopes of eventually wearing down Ukraine’s military and society,” CSIS states in its report.
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In addition to its high casualty rate, Russia has also been advancing “remarkably slowly,” according to the report. CSIS stated in its report that Russian forces had advanced at an average rate of 15 to 70 meters (49 to 230 feet) per day in its most prominent offenses since seizing the military initiative in January 2024. The authors of the report say Russia’s pace is “slower than almost any major offensive campaign in any war in the last century.”
The report comes less than one month before the fourth anniversary of Russia invading Ukraine. Despite international mediators, including the U.S., making attempts to end the war, it has persisted, with both sides suffering casualties.
On Wednesday, Ukrainian officials said two people were killed during Russian strikes that hit an apartment block on the outskirts of Kyiv, the AP reported. Additionally, at least nine people were injured in separate attacks on the Ukrainian cities of Odesa and Kryvyi Rih.
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Representatives for Ukraine, Russia and the U.S. recently met in the United Arab Emirates for the first trilateral talks since 2022. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a post on X that the “conversations were constructive.”
“A lot was discussed, and it is important that the conversations were constructive,” he wrote on X, noting the delegations could have further meetings as early as next week. “As a result of the meetings held over these days, all sides agreed to report back in their capitals on each aspect of the negotiations and to coordinate further steps with their leaders.”
Fox News Digital reached out to Russia and Ukraine’s foreign affairs ministries.
Russian drone attack on passenger train is an ‘act of terrorism,’ Zelenskyy says
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russian attack drones struck a civilian passenger train in the Kharkiv region on Tuesday, killing at least four people in what he called an “act of terrorism.”
“In any country, a drone strike on a civilian train would be regarded in the same way – purely as an act of terrorism. There would be no doubt about the classification, neither in Europe, nor in America, nor in the Arab world, nor in China, nor anywhere else,” he wrote in a post on X. “There is, and can be, no military justification for killing civilians in a train carriage.”
The Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor’s Office said Wednesday on Telegram that the number of confirmed fatalities had risen to five, with two people injured and one man reported missing.
Oleksiy Kuleba, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister, said three Russian drones were used in the attack on the train, which was carrying more than 200 people.
ZELENSKYY SAYS FRESH RUSSIAN ATTACK ON UKRAINE SHOWS PUTIN’S ‘TRUE ATTITUDE’ AHEAD OF TRUMP MEETING
Eighteen passengers were inside the carriage hit by one of the drones, he added.
The attack followed trilateral talks between Moscow, Kyiv and Washington in Abu Dhabi over the weekend that were aimed at ending the nearly four-year war.
U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff said the meetings were “very constructive” and plans were being made for the sides to meet again this week.
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“President Trump and his entire team are dedicated to bringing peace to this war,” Witkoff said.
Russia has continued to strike Kyiv’s energy infrastructure during negotiations, leaving thousands of residents without power and heat as winter conditions persist.
RUSSIA HAS SUFFERED MORE CASUALTIES IN UKRAINE WAR THAN ALL OTHER CONFLICTS COMBINED SINCE WWII: PENTAGON
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Zelenskyy said significant outages remain across the region, with hundreds of residential buildings in three districts of the capital still without heating despite ongoing repair efforts.
“Repair crews are working at maximum capacity. Crews from almost across the entire country have been deployed to assist,” he noted.
Trump pressures Iran to ‘come to the table’ as ‘massive’ US armada draws near
President Donald Trump urged Iran to “come to the table” as the U.S. deploys a “massive armada” to the region on Wednesday.
Trump confirmed that the USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group are deploying as a direct threat to the Iranian regime. The president said a major attack may be necessary of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s regime does not make a deal with the U.S.
“A massive Armada is heading to Iran. It is moving quickly, with great power, enthusiasm, and purpose. It is a larger fleet, headed by the great Aircraft Carrier Abraham Lincoln, than that sent to Venezuela. Like with Venezuela, it is, ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfill its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
“Hopefully Iran will quickly ‘Come to the Table’ and negotiate a fair and equitable deal – NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS – one that is good for all parties. Time is running out, it is truly of the essence! As I told Iran once before, MAKE A DEAL! They didn’t, and there was ‘Operation Midnight Hammer,’ a major destruction of Iran. The next attack will be far worse! Don’t make that happen again,” he added.
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Iran’s mission to the United Nations responded to Trump’s post within hours, vowing to defend itself.
“Last time the U.S. blundered into wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, it squandered over $7 trillion and lost more than 7,000 American lives. Iran stands ready for dialogue based on mutual respect and interests—BUT IF PUSHED, IT WILL DEFEND ITSELF AND RESPOND LIKE NEVER BEFORE!” the statement read.
Trump said earlier this week that Tehran appears willing to negotiate amid the U.S. military buildup.
In a Monday interview with Axios, Trump suggested that Tehran had reached out on “numerous occasions” and “want[s] to make a deal.”
“They want to make a deal. I know so. They called on numerous occasions. They want to talk,” the president told the outlet.
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According to U.S. officials, also cited by Axios, any potential agreement would need Tehran to remove all enriched uranium, cap its long-range missile stockpile, a change in support for regional proxy forces, and cease independent uranium enrichment, terms Iranian leaders have not agreed to.
The Abraham Lincoln entered CENTCOM waters on Monday
The U.S. military buildup comes amid widespread unrest inside Iran following protests that began Dec. 28.
According to a recent report from Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), the confirmed death toll from the protests has reached 5,848, with an additional 17,091 deaths under investigation.
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Khamenei has been sheltering in a fortified underground facility, according to Iran International.
Ted Cruz urges US to arm Iranian protesters as militias threaten ‘total war’ against America
Sen. Ted Cruz called for the U.S. to arm Iranian protesters Tuesday as unrest continues inside the nation and Iran-backed militias issued threats against Washington.
“We should be arming the protesters in Iran. NOW,” Cruz wrote in a post on X.
“For the Iranian people to overthrow the Ayatollah — a tyrant who routinely chants ‘death to America’ — would make America much, much safer,” the Texas Republican added.
Cruz was responding to another post from Tehran Bureau, which cited a source inside Iran detailing what was described as a rapidly deteriorating situation on the ground as security forces continued to crack down on demonstrations.
IRAN WILL RETALIATE ‘WITH EVERYTHING WE HAVE’ IF US ATTACKS, SENIOR DIPLOMAT WARNS
“From trusted source in Tehran: Tell all of your friends [abroad] — everyone you know: there is absolutely nothing else we can do here inside Iran,” the post read.
“They are killing people in such ways, they’ve descended upon people so brutally, they’re attacking us in such ways… We’ve lost so many lives that no one dares go out anymore. They shoot directly with bullets. They kill outright. And even after killing, they come and behead you, and do countless other violent things to you,” it continued.
“Going out into the streets is literally suicide. It’s not about bravery anymore. It’s madness. You go out and they shoot you point-blank. They don’t even ask why you came. They just kill you,” the post continued. “There is absolutely no way for us to gather unless we had weapons, unless we were armed like them. Otherwise they have weapons everywhere.”
According to the Human Rights Activists News Agency, activist groups estimate that more than 6,000 people have been killed in Iran, with additional cases still under review.
The protests began in late December amid widespread anger over economic hardship, political repression and corruption, according to reports.
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Cruz’s post came after armed militias aligned with Iran warned the U.S. they would retaliate against any American attack on the Islamic Republic, as the Trump administration moved forces into the region.
Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq said it was prepared for “total war” if the U.S. attacked Iran, according to The Associated Press.
Abu Hussein al-Hamidawi, the group’s leader, said the “enemies” of the Islamic Republic would face “the bitterest forms of death.”
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“You will taste every form of deadly suffering, nothing of you will remain in our region, and we will strike terror in your hearts,” the statement read.
Meanwhile, Yemen’s Houthis also threatened to restart attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, releasing a video Monday showing a ship engulfed in flames, captioned: “Soon,” The Associated Press reported.
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As previously reported by Fox News Digital, President Donald Trump said Iran appeared to be seeking negotiations with the U.S. amid the growing military buildup, telling Axios, “They want to make a deal. I know so. They called on numerous occasions. They want to talk.”
The USS Abraham Lincoln arrived in the Middle East on Monday as unrest inside Iran continued to escalate.
Fox News Digital has reached out to Sen. Ted Cruz for comment.
US deports 3 former Iranian Guard members amid rising tensions with Tehran
FIRST ON FOX: The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) deported three Iranian nationals known or suspected of terrorism Sunday.
Homeland Security said the three nationals — Ehsan Khaledi, Mohammad Mehrani and Morteza Nasirikakolaki — were former members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
They were among 14 Iranians on board a deportation flight Sunday, the first to head back to Tehran, Iran, since sweeping anti-government protests triggered a deadly government crackdown.
Both Mehrani and Khaledi entered the U.S. illegally in Southern California in 2024, according to the Department of Homeland Security. Nasirikakolaki entered illegally in November 2024, when he was encountered by Border Patrol near San Luis, Arizona, the agency said.
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The White House insisted that anyone deported had “Executable Final Orders, meaning a federal judge has ordered their removal from the United States.”
Since the start of the Trump administration, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has arrested 1,400 known or suspected terrorists, the Department of Homeland Security said, and 7,400 gang members.
The Iranian deportation flight drew attention due to reports of human rights abuses associated with the protests. Two unlawful migrants scheduled to be on the flight were gay men, and their lawyer, Bekah Wolf, had warned they stood “an extremely high chance” of being executed if they returned.
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But the men were moved into quarantine due to measles exposure and were not on the flight.
Sunday’s deportation was the third flight returning Iranian nationals to their home country since September 2025. The previous two flights were believed to have at least 55 people on them.
The IRGC is Iran’s elite military force, separate from the country’s regular army and reporting directly to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. U.S. officials have designated the IRGC a foreign terrorist organization, citing its long history of involvement in terrorist activity, support for extremist proxies such as Hezbollah and Hamas and plots against U.S. personnel and interests worldwide.
Through its Quds Force, the IRGC provides training, funding and weapons to militant groups and has been linked to assassination plots, attacks on U.S. forces and allies and other covert operations that Washington says threaten American national security and regional stability.
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Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have climbed sharply in recent weeks as President Donald Trump has publicly kept the option of military action on the table amid Iran’s deadly crackdown on nationwide protests, warning Tehran that the United States could respond if executions or mass killings continued.
The Human Rights Activists News Agency estimates that nearly 6,000 people have been killed since protests broke out at the start of 2026. Meanwhile, the U.S. is building up its U.S. naval and air force presence near Iran, including with the arrival of the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to the region.
Iranian security forces gun down amateur boxer near Tehran: source
An Iranian amateur boxer has been shot and killed by Iranian security forces during ongoing anti-regime protests.
Sepehr Ebrahimi joined protests near Tehran and died amid ongoing demonstrations driven by anger over political repression, economic hardship, and human rights violations.
Ebrahimi’s death also renewed attention on the case of another Iranian boxer, Mohammad Javad Vafaei Sani, who is currently on death row.
Vafaei Sani, now 30, is a champion boxer who was arrested in 2020 for participating in nationwide pro-democracy protests.
Iranian authorities accused him of supporting the opposition group the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (MEK).
IRAN LOCKS NATION INTO ‘DARKER’ DIGITAL BLACKOUT, VIEWING INTERNET AS AN ‘EXISTENTIAL THREAT’
Meanwhile, harrowing footage has also been circulating online showing the distraught father of another youth, Sepehr Shekari who was also shot by security forces.
The video shows Shekari’s father desperately searching among piles of bodies covered with black body bags, crying out for his missing son.
“Sepehr was shot and killed in Tehran,” Ali Safavi, a senior official with the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), told Fox News Digital.
Video shared on social media, which was viewed by Fox News Digital, shows Shekari’s father calling out his son’s name as he searches a warehouse filled with unidentified bodies following a violent crackdown on demonstrators.
KHAMENEI CALLS TRUMP A ‘CRIMINAL,’ BLAMES HIM FOR DEADLY PROTESTS SWEEPING IRAN
“My dear Sepehr, where are you?” the father can be heard crying. At one point, he shouts, “Damn Khamenei. They have killed the children of so many people. You killed so many young people!”
According to Safavi, Ebrahimi and Shekari were shot with live ammunition by Iran’s security forces during protests against the clerical regime that began Dec. 28.
Shekari’s family spent an agonizing week searching through morgues, hospitals and detention facilities before finally identifying his body among piles of corpses, also shown in the viral footage.
Maryam Rajavi, NCRI president-elect also shared a post on X dedicated to parents of those murdered by the regime. “You are not alone,” she wrote, “Every heart beats with you,” she added.
IRANIAN SOLDIER SENTENCED TO DEATH FOR REFUSING TO FIRE ON PROTESTERS DURING NATIONWIDE UNREST
Rights organizations also continue to highlight the plight of Vafaei Sani who has spent five years in prison, during which he has reportedly been tortured and held in prolonged solitary confinement.
In 2023, more than 100 human rights experts and international organizations sent a letter to U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk, urging urgent intervention to stop Vafaei Sani’s execution.
His death sentence echoes the case of Iranian wrestling champion Navid Afkari, who was executed in September 2020.
The death of Ebrahimi and others comes as Iran’s protest-related death toll continues to rise.
According to the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), at least 6,126 people have been killed since the start of the latest wave of protests.
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HRANA also reported that 214 government-affiliated forces and 49 civilians have also been killed, while more than 17,000 deaths remain under investigation.