Combined war casualties for Russia and Ukraine could hit 2 million, new report warns
A new report is warning that the combined war casualties in the nearly four-year Russia-Ukraine war could hit 2 million by spring 2026. The number includes soldiers killed, injured or missing on both sides of the conflict.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released a report on Tuesday predicting the grim milestone. CSIS states that Russia suffered 1.2 million casualties, including 325,000 troop deaths, between February 2022 and December 2025. It estimates that Ukraine suffered between 500,000 to 600,000 casualties, including 140,000 troop deaths. CSIS estimates that the current combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties could be as high as 1.8 million.
Getting a clear picture of the fatalities and casualties suffered on both sides is not easy as neither Moscow nor Kyiv gives timely data on military losses, according to The Associated Press, which noted that the two countries are also simultaneously focused on amplifying each other’s casualties. Russia has publicly acknowledged the deaths of just over 6,000 soldiers, the AP reported.
The outlet noted that activists and independent journalists have said that reports of military losses have been repressed in Russian media.
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“Despite claims of battlefield momentum in Ukraine, the data shows that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains and is in decline as a major power,” the report reads.
“No major power has suffered anywhere near these numbers of casualties or fatalities in any war since World War II,” the report notes.
Russian battlefield casualties and fatalities have been “significantly higher” than Ukraine’s, according to the report.
CSIS estimates the ratio to be roughly 2.5:1 or 2:1. CSIS points to several reasons for the high Russian casualties and fatalities, including the country’s “failure to effectively conduct combined arms and joint warfare, poor tactics and training, corruption, low morale and Ukraine’s effective defense-in-depth strategy in a war that favors the defense.” The report also states that Russia has accepted taking high casualties as part of its strategy.
“Russia’s attrition strategy has accepted the costs of high casualties in hopes of eventually wearing down Ukraine’s military and society,” CSIS states in its report.
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In addition to its high casualty rate, Russia has also been advancing “remarkably slowly,” according to the report. CSIS stated in its report that Russian forces had advanced at an average rate of 15 to 70 meters (49 to 230 feet) per day in its most prominent offenses since seizing the military initiative in January 2024. The authors of the report say Russia’s pace is “slower than almost any major offensive campaign in any war in the last century.”
The report comes less than one month before the fourth anniversary of Russia invading Ukraine. Despite international mediators, including the U.S., making attempts to end the war, it has persisted, with both sides suffering casualties.
On Wednesday, Ukrainian officials said two people were killed during Russian strikes that hit an apartment block on the outskirts of Kyiv, the AP reported. Additionally, at least nine people were injured in separate attacks on the Ukrainian cities of Odesa and Kryvyi Rih.
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Representatives for Ukraine, Russia and the U.S. recently met in the United Arab Emirates for the first trilateral talks since 2022. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a post on X that the “conversations were constructive.”
“A lot was discussed, and it is important that the conversations were constructive,” he wrote on X, noting the delegations could have further meetings as early as next week. “As a result of the meetings held over these days, all sides agreed to report back in their capitals on each aspect of the negotiations and to coordinate further steps with their leaders.”
Fox News Digital reached out to Russia and Ukraine’s foreign affairs ministries.
Russian drone attack on passenger train is an ‘act of terrorism,’ Zelenskyy says
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russian attack drones struck a civilian passenger train in the Kharkiv region on Tuesday, killing at least four people in what he called an “act of terrorism.”
“In any country, a drone strike on a civilian train would be regarded in the same way – purely as an act of terrorism. There would be no doubt about the classification, neither in Europe, nor in America, nor in the Arab world, nor in China, nor anywhere else,” he wrote in a post on X. “There is, and can be, no military justification for killing civilians in a train carriage.”
The Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor’s Office said Wednesday on Telegram that the number of confirmed fatalities had risen to five, with two people injured and one man reported missing.
Oleksiy Kuleba, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister, said three Russian drones were used in the attack on the train, which was carrying more than 200 people.
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Eighteen passengers were inside the carriage hit by one of the drones, he added.
The attack followed trilateral talks between Moscow, Kyiv and Washington in Abu Dhabi over the weekend that were aimed at ending the nearly four-year war.
U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff said the meetings were “very constructive” and plans were being made for the sides to meet again this week.
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“President Trump and his entire team are dedicated to bringing peace to this war,” Witkoff said.
Russia has continued to strike Kyiv’s energy infrastructure during negotiations, leaving thousands of residents without power and heat as winter conditions persist.
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Zelenskyy said significant outages remain across the region, with hundreds of residential buildings in three districts of the capital still without heating despite ongoing repair efforts.
“Repair crews are working at maximum capacity. Crews from almost across the entire country have been deployed to assist,” he noted.
Zelenskyy says US security guarantees document is ‘100% ready’ for signing
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that a long-anticipated document on U.S. security guarantees is “100% ready” for signing, with Kyiv now waiting for its American partners to confirm the date and place before the agreement moves to ratification in both the U.S. Congress and the Ukrainian parliament.
“For us, security guarantees are first and foremost guarantees of security from the United States. The document is 100% ready,” Zelenskyy said Sunday at a joint press conference in Vilnius, Lithuania, with the presidents of Lithuania and Poland, according to a translation of his remarks from Reuters.
Zelenskyy reiterated at the press conference that Ukraine views membership in the European Union as another core security guarantee and is aiming to join the bloc by 2027, the Ukrainian president’s office said in a statement on its website.
His remarks come after Ukraine, Russia and the United States held trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi for two days over the weekend.
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Zelenskyy said on X that the discussions, which involved political and military representatives from all three sides, were “constructive” and focused on potential parameters for ending his country’s war with Russia.
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The talks in the United Arab Emirates followed a meeting in Moscow on Thursday between Russian President Vladimir Putin, U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and head of the Federal Acquisition Service Josh Gruenbaum.
Putin aide Yuri Ushakov said the “extremely frank” discussions lasted roughly four hours and included U.S. officials updating Moscow on their recent conversations with Ukrainian and European leaders, according to a summary of the meeting from the Kremlin.
Territorial issues remain a key obstacle in the negotiations, with Moscow pressing Kyiv to relinquish parts of eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region that Russian forces do not fully control.
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U.S. officials told Axios that negotiations examined the full range of unresolved issues, from Russia’s territorial demands in the Donbas to control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and potential steps to prevent a return to fighting.
Another U.S. official told the outlet a second round of talks is scheduled to take place on Feb. 1.
Zelenskyy touts ‘constructive’ trilateral talks between the US, Russia and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Saturday described recent trilateral talks between the United States, Russia and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi as “constructive,” saying the meetings marked the first format of their kind in some time and focused on potential parameters for ending Moscow’s war.
Zelenskyy said the talks, which were hosted by the United Arab Emirates over two days, involved political and military representatives from all three sides and addressed security-related issues, including the need for American monitoring and oversight.
“A lot was discussed, and it is important that the conversations were constructive,” he wrote on X, noting the delegations could have further meetings as early as next week. “As a result of the meetings held over these days, all sides agreed to report back in their capitals on each aspect of the negotiations and to coordinate further steps with their leaders.”
The Abu Dhabi talks followed a meeting in Moscow on Thursday between Russian President Vladimir Putin, U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and Josh Gruenbaum, the head of the Federal Acquisition Service.
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Putin aide Yuri Ushakov said the “extremely frank” discussions lasted roughly four hours and included U.S. officials updating Moscow on their recent conversations with Ukrainian and European leaders.
“Importantly, the participants in the conversation between the President of Russia and the Americans reaffirmed the fact that bringing about a lasting settlement would be unlikely without addressing the territorial issue based on the formula as agreed in Anchorage,” Ushakov said, according to a summary of the meeting from the Kremlin.
Territorial issues remain a key obstacle in the negotiations, with Moscow pressing Kyiv to relinquish parts of eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region that Russian forces do not fully control.
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The diplomatic efforts come as Russia continues its strikes across Ukraine, targeting the country’s energy sector, critical infrastructure and residential areas.
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Zelenskyy said on Sunday that Russian forces had launched more than 1,700 attack drones, over 1,380 guided aerial bombs and 69 missiles in the past week alone.
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The European Commission, the EU’s executive body, said ahead of the trilateral talks that it was deploying 447 emergency generators to help restore power to hospitals, shelters and critical services, as more than one million Ukrainians face outages amid freezing temperatures.
“The EU will not let Russia freeze Ukraine into submission and will continue helping Ukrainians get through this winter,” the commission said.
Russia, Ukraine to discuss territory as Trump says both sides ‘want to make a deal’
The U.S., Russia and Ukraine are meeting in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE), to discuss one of the major sticking points stopping a deal to end the nearly four-year war: territorial disputes. The talks in Abu Dhabi are the first trilateral talks since 2022.
The trilateral sit-down comes after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s meeting with Trump in Davos and Russian President Vladimir Putin‘s meeting with Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and the president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner.
Witkoff and Kushner traveled to the UAE for the talks after their meeting with Putin in Moscow on Thursday.
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Zelenskyy and Putin are under increasing pressure to reach a peace deal as the fourth anniversary of Moscow’s invasion approaches and President Donald Trump pushes to end the war.
While Russia has demanded Ukraine cede the Donbas, Zelenskyy has stood firm in his opposition to making land concessions, though the discussions in Abu Dhabi suggest that he could be ready to negotiate. Putin is demanding Ukraine surrender the 20% it holds of the Donetsk region of the Donbas, according to Reuters.
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“The question of Donbas is key. It will be discussed how the three sides… see this in Abu Dhabi today and tomorrow,” Zelenskyy told reporters via WhatsApp, according to Reuters. The outlet added that an aide for Zelenskyy said the talks are expected to continue Saturday.
The envoys are meeting as Ukrainians face below-freezing temperatures after Russian strikes damaged the country’s power supply.
Maxim Timchenko, the head of Ukraine’s top private power producer, told Reuters that the situation was nearing a “humanitarian catastrophe.”
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While speaking with reporters on Air Force One, Trump was asked if the trilateral meeting could lead to one with himself, Putin and Zelenskyy. He would not commit but said that “any time we meet, it’s good.” He also expressed doubts about whether Putin wanted to take over all of Ukraine.
“What’s happened here is there were times when Putin didn’t want to make a deal, times when Zelenskyy didn’t want to make a deal, and it was opposite times. Now, I think they both want to make a deal. We’ll find out,” Trump said.
The president also acknowledged that the topics of the discussions that were happening had been debated for months.
Russian oil tanker, the Grinch, intercepted as US, allies escalate sanctions crackdown
The French navy intercepted a Russian oil tanker in the Mediterranean suspected of operating as part of Moscow’s shadow fleet, a network of falsely-flagged vessels used to export oil and avoid Western sanctions, according to reports.
President Emmanuel Macron said Thursday that French forces had boarded and searched the tanker, which is subject to international sanctions.
The ship was reportedly sailing from Murmansk, in northern Russia, under the Comoros flag.
Writing on X, Macron said the operation took place on the high seas in the Mediterranean with the support of several allied countries.
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The French president added that the vessel had been diverted for further checks.
The tanker, identified as the Grinch, was intercepted between the southern coast of Spain and the northern coast of Morocco in the western Mediterranean, French maritime police said.
The Associated Press reported the interception.
France and the U.K. gathered and shared intelligence on the vessel, according to French military officials who spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity.
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The interception is the latest in a growing number of Russian-linked vessels stopped by U.S. and European authorities in recent months as Western powers intensify efforts to disrupt Russia’s oil exports.
As previously reported by Fox News Digital, in early January, U.S. forces seized another sanctioned tanker in the Atlantic Ocean.
U.S. European Command (EUCOM) announced the seizure of the Russian-flagged Marinera oil tanker in the North Atlantic Sea.
France’s Mediterranean Maritime Prefecture said the team that boarded the Grinch Thursday had inspected the vessel and decided documents raised doubts about the regularity of the vessel’s flag.
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The tanker is being escorted by the French navy to an anchorage for additional verification.
The European Union has imposed 19 rounds of sanctions on Russia since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Despite those measures, Russia has continued to export millions of barrels of oil, mainly to China and India and often at discounted prices.
What has become known as a “shadow fleet” consists of hundreds of old and poorly regulated tankers that change names, ownership structures and flags to avoid detection and sanctions.
Maritime data firm Lloyd’s List Intelligence estimates the global shadow fleet at about 1,400 tankers, many of which are subject to U.S., British or European sanctions, Reuters reported.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy criticized European countries for not doing more to stop the transport of Russian oil using sanctioned vessels and which he says helps fund the war in Ukraine.
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“Why can [U.S. President Donald Trump] stop tankers of the ‘shadow fleet’ and seize their oil, while Europe can’t?” Zelensky asked at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Thursday.
“Russian oil is transported right along the European coast. This oil funds the war against Ukraine. This oil helps destabilize Europe.”