‘E-shaped’ economy is replacing K-shape in 2026, economist says: Middle class is ‘treading water’
It’s difficult to describe the U.S. economy in black and white terms like “good” or “bad.” On several fronts, the data says the economy is healthy. But surveys show American consumers don’t feel that way.
“There’s no doubt right now that different data can show slightly different narratives,” says Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.
Depending on which measure you look at, inflation is falling or staying flat in recent months, Long points out. The consumer price index has dropped from its 9% peak in June 2022 and hovered around 3% since June 2023, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Personal consumption expenditures has remained relatively flat for the last year, coming in at 2.9% in December 2025, the latest reading from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
But prices for many consumer goods remain far above what they were in 2020, and wages have roughly plateaued over that time when adjusted for inflation, according to nonpartisan economic research group, The Hamilton Project. That disparity could be contributing to Americans feeling bad about the economy. Consumer sentiment is down nearly 13% year-over-year as of February, according to the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, which is released monthly.
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Many economists referenced the U.S. economy as “K-shaped” in 2025, illustrating how higher earners were doing alright — continuing to spend and driving economic growth — while lower-income Americans pulled back.
Long, who was among the economists using the phrase “K-shaped,” says the economy is taking more of an “E-shape” in 2026, with three tiers of consumer behavior instead of two. A middle group is distinguishing itself, and those people’s behavior is starting to show that they’re experiencing growing signs of strain, she says.
Here’s what she’s seeing.
Top tier: ‘Driving a lot of the consumption’
Like the top of the K-shape, the top tier of the E-shaped economy is comprised of high earners — the consumers who continue to spend money despite elevated prices. The top 20% of earners account for nearly 60% of all U.S. consumer spending, a recent analysis from Moody’s Analytics found.
“This top tier [of earners] that’s doing really well, that’s driving a lot of the consumption,” Long says.
The difference between the K-shape and the E-shape: Middle-earners’ spending growth was closely aligned with higher-earners until it started diverging toward the end of 2025, according to Bank of America Institute data released in February. As of January, the gap between high-income households and all other households’ annual spending growth reached its highest level since mid-2022, the bank reported.
Wealthy consumers aren’t just continuing to buy what they always have, despite higher prices. Some retailers and brands, especially in the food and hospitality industries, are increasingly boosting their premium offerings to attract those big spenders, Long says.
Premium credit cards like the Chase Sapphire Reserve and AmEx Platinum recently upped their annual fees to $795 and $895, respectively, betting that additional perks will lure in more high-earning cardholders. “Look at all of these exclusive platinum credit cards,” Long says. “Almost every company is trying to move up the value chain, and you can see that in the earnings calls.”
The strategy has paid off for the airlines, hotel brands, and food and beverage companies that have reported strong demand for their extant and newer premium offerings since fall 2025 — even as sales for their standard and discount products slow down.
Middle tier: ‘Treading water’
Spending behaviors among middle class Americans is where you start to see signs of the affordability crisis, Long says. They’re still spending on their necessities and some discretionary categories, but “the middle class is treading water so they can still pay their bills,” she says.
Long calls this tier the “Costco economy,” referencing consumers who aren’t necessarily in a full-blown panic yet, but are increasingly shopping at discount and wholesale retailers like Costco and Walmart to get the most bang for their buck.
“They’re obviously spending in a nervous way,” she says, “They feel they need to stretch every dollar they feel they need to buy in bulk, to do whatever they can [to save].”
Regardless of where they’re shopping, a growing number of American households are living paycheck to paycheck. Nearly 24% of households had expenses eating up the bulk of their earnings in 2025, according to data from Bank of America Institute published on Nov. 10. The bank’s report defines “paycheck to paycheck” as having costs for essentials like housing, groceries, utilities, gas, child care and more that exceed 95% of income.
The share of paycheck-to-paycheck households has been on the rise since at least 2023, the bank’s researchers found.
Middle-class households may be getting by for now, but Long says they’re experiencing stress in waves. “Not only are they facing high prices, but it’s every couple of months, something else surges,” she says. Eggs, for example aren’t nearly as expensive in 2026 as they were in 2025, but in January, beef prices were up 22% from the previous year, per the Labor Department.
“It’s just whack-a-mole inflation,” says Long.
Bottom tier: Taking on debt
The bottom tier of the E-shaped economy is characterized by high credit card usage and Buy Now, Pay Later usage, Long says.
While middle and higher-earners certainly use credit cards and sometimes carry balances on them, lower-earners are more likely to report carrying a balance. Among card holders, 59% of those earning between $25,000 and $49,999 say they’ve carried a balance from month to month at least once in the last year, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest Survey of Consumer Finances which was conducted in October 2024 and released in May 2025.
Half of cardholders earning between $50,000 and $99,999 say they’ve carried a balance at least once in the last year, compared to just 38% of those earning $100,000 or more.
As for Buy Now, Pay Later plans, adults earning between $25,000 and $49,999 are mostly likely to have used the installment loans in the last year, the Fed reports. Lower earners, households earning less than $25,000, were the most likely survey respondents to report being paying late on a Buy Now, Pay Later plan, data shows.
A quarter of Buy Now, Pay Later users reported using the loans to pay for groceries in 2025, up from 14% in 2024, found a February 2025 LendingTree survey.
The 2026 tax season may come as a lifeline for Americans in the middle and bottom tiers, Long says. Over a third — 35% — of Americans expecting a tax refund say they’ll use at least a portion of it to pay down debt, a Feb. 23 Intuit TurboTax survey found. But even large refunds are only a temporary fix for an ongoing affordability problem, Long says.
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She’s been married for nearly 70 years. Today, her No. 1 rule for a lasting relationship is simple
Rosalyn Engelman was just 15 when she met her future husband, Irwin, she says. That was in 1953.
The two were set up by a mutual friend, and when Irwin, then 19, came to pick her up at her family’s home in the Bronx, “I certainly had not dated anyone like the tall, dark, handsome man in a navy-blue suit with a briefcase who came to my door,” she says.
“He looked like a movie star.” Irwin took her out for a movie and milkshake, and by the end of the night, they were falling in love, she says. After three years of dating, the two got married in November 1956.
In their nearly 70 years together, they had two daughters, stood side by side through life-threatening illnesses, traveled the world, and built their careers. Irwin worked as a CFO at companies like Xerox, and Engelman was a painter and mixed media artist whose work has been displayed all over the world, she says.
They now live at the Apsley, an assisted living facility in Manhattan.
For couples seeking tips on how to stay happily together for decades, here’s Engelman’s advice.
‘Try to understand the other person’
For Engelman, it really comes down to one piece of advice: “Try to understand the other person,” she says.
That can come into play in many ways.
If your spouse sometimes prioritizes their work, for example, put yourself in their shoes. “I never resented his time that he worked hard,” she says, “and I don’t think he resented the fact that I was covered in paint.”
Try to get interested in their hobbies as well. “He liked opera more, I learned to like opera,” she says. “I like classical music most, he learned to love classical music.”
Finally, understanding each other can also mean forgiving each other during mishaps, large or small. Engelman remembers the first time she tried to cook the two of them dinner. She decided on Brussels sprouts, hot dogs, and corn. And the dinner did not come out as she planned. The Brussels sprouts tasted like rubber, she says.
Irwin was not angry. Instead, “we just started laughing and went out for pizza,” she says. That’s the kind of mutual understanding that can keep a relationship strong.
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Look inside: Couple built wife’s mom a tiny home in their backyard for under $32,000
When Yeli Heidecker and her husband, Benjamin, both 32, decided they were going to downsize to a barndominium — a building designed to look like a barn, but with a traditional living space inside — they started looking for the perfect lot.
In early 2024, the couple purchased a two-acre lot in west-central Texas for $45,000 and began construction on the barndominium. Around the same time, they convinced Yeli’s mom, Liliana Villanueva, to move down and live in an RV on the property.
Yeli says Villanueva was experiencing some health issues at the time. And because she is a stay-at-home mom and content creator, Yeli says it would be easy to be around to help her mom. Plus, the idea of having her kids’ grandmother close by sounded amazing, she adds.
But shortly after the couple moved into the barndominium in late 2025, they began considering a more permanent living arrangement for Villanueva, Yeli says.
“We were afraid she was gonna trip and fall and hurt herself or something. We had the bright idea to do a tiny barndo like ours, but we’ll do it ourselves,” Yeli tells CNBC Make It.
Going the DIY route
Before taking the DIY route, the Heideckers obtained quotes for a small barndominium measuring about 400 square feet. The quotes ranged from $63,000 to $93,000, so they decided the best option was to do it themselves and stick to a $30,000 budget.
On top of that, Yeli and Benjamin decided to surprise Villanueva by building the tiny home while she was in Mexico visiting family for six weeks.
“I’m not going to sugarcoat it, it was chaotic,” Yeli says. “It was definitely hard, but at the same time, it was so incredibly fulfilling and amazing to see all the work we did.”
The couple hired contractors to handle the shell, electrical work and concrete flooring for the barndominium. The rest of the work, including installing the kitchen, painting the house and putting up the walls and drywall, was done mostly by Benjamin, Yeli says, but she helped out when she wasn’t taking care of their four young children.
“It was special because we built this for Abuela,” Yeli says, using the word for grandmother in Spanish. “It was emotional seeing it finished because of all the memories of my husband and I working on it. It feels like it bonded us on a deeper level.”
When Villanueva returned to Texas in November 2025, she moved into the tiny home even though it wasn’t fully finished.
“It was the most beautiful surprise I could have found after getting back from my trip. I am very happy with it,” Villanueva tells CNBC Make It. “I laugh because the house is small, but I have absolutely everything I need. It’s perfect. I love that I’m close to my daughter and my grandchildren. I feel protected and feel safe.”
“As immigrants, when you come here, you’re fighting the American Dream, and while she’s never owned a home on paper, just seeing her have that for herself was very emotional,” Yeli adds.
Inside the tiny home
The one-bedroom, one-bathroom tiny home fits a washer and dryer as well as a full-size oven, stove and refrigerator. The Heideckers created the layout of the home with Villanueva’s specific needs in mind.
As of January, the only remaining task is tiling the bathroom, which Yeli says will happen soon.
Here’s a breakdown of the major expenses for the tiny home, according to documents reviewed by CNBC Make It. All expenses are rounded.
- Trim: $250
- Paint: $350
- Flooring: $600
- AC mini split: $750
- Cabinets: $1,300
- Plumbing: $1,500
- Drywall and lumber: $1,700
- Electricity: $1,775
- Appliances: $2,000
- Insulation: $2,100
- Miscellaneous: $6,500
- Barn shell: $12,500
In total, the home cost $31,325, including a number of miscellaneous expenses, such as power tools, countertops, lighting and faucets.
Because the tiny home is on the same property as the Heideckers’, it doesn’t have separate utility bills. Instead, the couple covers all monthly expenses, such as water, electricity and gas, while Villanueva pays about $100 a month for cable TV.
Since Villanueva moved in, Yeli says the only thing the couple regrets is not making the tiny home a little bigger, specifically in the bedroom. But for the mother and daughter, the best part is being able to live next to each other.
“It’s nice to see my kids being able to have Grandma just there, especially after we lived away from family for a very long time,” Yeli says.
Although the tiny home isn’t officially finished, Yeli and Villanueva say the barndominium and tiny home are their forever homes, respectively.
“I’m doing very well here and have no plans on ever leaving,” Villanueva says. “I have it very good here and get to enjoy it alongside my family.”
Despite how chaotic the process was for the couple to get the tiny house done in such a short amount of time, Yeli says she would do it all over again — and recommends it to others, too.
“It’s definitely worth it if you have aging parents, but even if you don’t have an aging parent, having a special unit for someone, or when you have family coming over, or something like that, it’s nice,” Yeli says.
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The 14 worst-paying college majors, 5 years after graduation
Liberal arts and education majors tend to earn some of the lowest salaries right after college, according to a February report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Based on 2024 U.S. Census data, the most recent available, the analysis shows that full-time workers ages 22 to 27 who majored in theology, performing arts, social services and education report some of the lowest median earnings early in their careers.
Graduates with these degrees all earn a median of $45,000 a year or less — below the individual U.S median income of $45,140, according to Census Bureau data.
Teachers and other education professionals are typically paid by state and local governments, where wage growth tends to lag the private sector. While those roles often offer job stability, defined pensions and summer breaks, a 2025 report from the Economic Policy Institute finds teachers earn less than other college-educated workers with comparable levels of education and experience.
And generally speaking, liberal arts and social service majors often enter nonprofit, public-sector or service-oriented roles, which historically offer lower pay than technical fields tied to high-demand industries such as engineering or computer science.
In contrast, most engineering majors make $75,000 or more five years after graduating from college. Those median income rise to $100,000 or more by ages 35 to 45, with chemical engineering majors earning the most at $135,000 annually.
Here are the 14 majors that lead to the lowest median incomes for workers ages 22 to 27:
- Pharmacy: $40,000
- Theology and religion: $41,600
- Social services: $43,000
- Performing arts: $44,000
- General education: $45,000
- Early childhood education: $45,000
- Elementary education: $45,000
- Liberal arts: $45,000
- Biology: $45,000
- Leisure and hospitality: $45,000
- Psychology: $45,000
- Anthropology: $45,000
- Art history: $45,000
- Fine arts: $45,000
It’s worth noting that these figures reflect workers whose highest degree is a bachelor’s, so the data doesn’t include licensed pharmacists, who earn a median of $137,480 annually, per BLS data. Becoming a pharmacist requires a Doctor of Pharmacy degree and state licensure. A bachelor’s degree alone does not qualify someone to practice, according to the National Association of Boards of Pharmacy.
Pharmacy’s place at the bottom of the early-career rankings doesn’t last. By mid-career — ages 35 to 45 — pharmacy majors earn a median of $85,000, more than double their early-career pay. The data reflects workers by major rather than job title, so not every pharmacy graduate is earning the typical six-figure salary for licensed pharmacists.
Instead, education fields remain clustered near the bottom a decade into workers’ careers. Here’s a look at the 15 majors held by full-time workers ages 35 to 45 who report the lowest median earnings, all below $75,000:
- Early childhood education: $52,000
- Elementary education: $55,000
- General education: $56,000
- Special education: $56,000
- Social services: $60,000
- Miscellaneous education: $60,000
- Secondary education: $62,000
- Anthropology: $65,000
- Family and consumer sciences: $65,000
- Theology and religion: $66,000
- Health services: $67,000
- Nutrition sciences: $70,000
- Treatment therapy: $70,000
- Psychology: $72,000
- Fine arts: $72,000
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I’m a neuroscientist: I’ve been doing 6 simple things every day to keep my mind sharp as a tack
In high-performance environments, mental resilience is a competitive advantage.
In my work as a neuroscientist, as the parent of two young children, and in my athletic endeavors — ballet, yoga, five triathlons and two half-marathons and counting — this is something that I constantly think about.
All of these experiences have taught me that I can’t simply grind my way into a sharp mind. But I can build it by returning to the same simple practices, day after day.
Here’s what that looks like in my daily routine.
1. I protect my unstructured time
Unstructured time is one of the most underrated contributors to mental sharpness. It’s hard to prioritize when you have a full schedule, but it’s essential.
Every day, I try to schedule “white space,” intentionally blocking my calendar from meetings or defined objectives. I’ll go outside and just sit, noticing the sounds around me and, if it’s a typical day in my Los Angeles neighborhood, feeling the sun on my skin. I often bring a notebook to jot down ideas or questions that come to mind.
I may also do a few stretches or practice some breathing exercises. Generally, this pause allows me to check in with myself and helps restore my energy.
2. I’m learning piano and doing puzzles
When I was young, I was an avid pianist and jigsaw puzzler. Now that my eldest kid is interested in both, I have been inspired to reintroduce these activities into my daily routine.
I genuinely love these hobbies, especially because they allow me to bond with my son. They also have a ton of cognitive benefits.
Learning a musical instrument strengthens brain regions that are involved with memory and executive function. It can also improve motor coordination and auditory processing.
Working on puzzles is not only relaxing, but it can boost spatial reasoning as well.
3. I make the most of the in-between moments in my schedule
If you want to perform at a high level, you have to pay attention to the transitional moments in your day, especially when you are shifting into and out of work mode. The in-between moments matter more than most people realize.
When I get home from dropping off my boys at school, I often feel the pressure to immediately begin a work task. But when I pause for a short pre-work ritual — three minutes of journaling, a cup of tea, and a few deep breaths — I start with greater presence and focus.
When it’s time to shift back into mom mode, I resist working until the last possible minute. Instead, I jot down the first task for my next work session. Before I leave my home office, I’ll take a few deep breaths to center myself and, on each exhale, release any lingering work thoughts.
Clear transitions can reduce mental residue and enhance cognitive efficiency.
4. I set aside time for movement and meditation
These two disciplines form the foundation of my routine. I don’t have a perfect record, but when I skip either of them, my focus drifts, fatigue creeps in, and my stress is harder to manage.
Exercise benefits cognitive function. It increases information processing speed and enhances learning and memory.
So, I prioritize at least 30 minutes of movement per day. I like to mix it up with my Peloton bike, my Peloton Tread, a self-guided or teacher-led yoga class, or strength training. When I have more time, I’ll head out for a beach run or a hike with the family.
I generally meditate in silence for 20 to 30 minutes every morning before my family wakes up.
5. I journal for five to 10 minutes
Every day, I set a timer for five to 10 minutes to write. I’m old school and I like to put pen to paper. It is my go-to method to free up mental real estate and jump-start my creativity.
When thoughts stay trapped in your head, whether they’re unfinished tasks, worries, or ideas, they consume valuable attentional resources.
Writing those unruly thoughts down can reduce cognitive load, essentially the information that our working memory can hold and process at any given time.
6. I practice alternate nostril breathing
Alternate nostril breathing is a well-researched technique that can reduce mental fatigue and increase alertness. I do this whenever I feel my mental performance start to dip. Here’s how:
- Use your right thumb to open and close your right nostril and your right ring finger to open and close your left nostril.
- Inhale through both open nostrils, then close your right nostril and exhale through your left nostril.
- Inhale one more time through your left nostril and close it. Then open your right nostril, and exhale through your right nostril.
- Repeat for a few minutes.
None of these practices are complicated, and I don’t need to execute them perfectly. I just want to be consistent. To become mentally sharp, you don’t need to be operating at high-intensity optimization all the time. You will burn out that way.
Instead, build your mental resilience through small, repeatable habits that support the brain over time.
Daya Grant Ph.D., CMPC is a certified mental performance consultant, neuroscientist, and yoga/meditation teacher, who helps athletes and high performers train their mind for elevated performance. Daya has a private practice in Los Angeles and consults with athletes in a wide range of sports from youth to professional, as well as business leaders, doctors, and musicians. Daya lives in Los Angeles with her husband and their two young sons.
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