Newsom’s claim Texas and Florida are the ‘real high tax states’ picked apart by expert: ‘Fatally flawed’

California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s repeated claims in recent weeks promoting his state as more tax-friendly than Florida and Texas don’t add up, according to an expert who ran the numbers.

“Texas and Florida are the REAL high-tax states,” Newsom recently posted on X, explaining onstage at SXSW in Austin, Texas that California has the most “progressive tax rates in America” while taking shots at the tax burden in Florida and Texas.

“Your middle class pays more taxes in Texas than our middle class in California,” Newsom said in Texas. “It’s a great mythology, it’s just ‘the richest of the rich come here because they can avoid paying a damn penny.'”

The comments drew pushback from conservatives on social media, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and from Just Facts President James Agresti, who says he looked into a “number of different angles” to determine the “validity” of Newsom’s claims.

FROM ‘JUMP ON A BUS’ TO TAX CRACKDOWNS: BLUE STATES CHASE WEALTHY RESIDENTS FLEEING TO RED HAVENS

“I looked at how much is each state taxing each of its citizens on average? So if you look at California, they collect about $10,000 a year in taxes for every person in the state, whereas the figures for Texas and Florida are only about $5,000, or about half as much,” Agresti told Fox News Digital.

“However, California is a higher-income state, so I also looked at it as a percentage of the states’ economies and what I found is that California taxes about 14% of its economy, as opposed to 9% for Texas and Florida.”

Just Facts broke those taxes down in a recent study and found that California imposes some of the highest taxes in the nation, with a top personal income tax rate of 13.3%, while both Texas and Florida have no state income tax.

Property taxes in California account for about 2.8% of personal income, slightly lower than Texas at 3.6% and close to Florida’s 2.6%, though measured as a share of home values, California’s rates are generally lower than both states, but in other tax areas, California is largely more burdensome.

The state’s unemployment insurance tax rate matches Texas at 6.2%, but is higher than Florida’s 5.4%. California also has a higher statewide sales tax at 7.2%, compared to 6.2% in Texas and 6.0% in Florida. Drivers in California face significantly higher gas taxes as well, paying 70.9 cents per gallon, more than triple Texas’ 20 cents and well above Florida’s 40.3 cents.

PROPOSED CALIFORNIA WEALTH TAX DRIVES BILLIONAIRE EXODUS TO FLORIDA REAL ESTATE, LOCALS CONFIRM

A Wallethub 2025 analysis ranking U.S. states by overall tax burden showed California coming in at 4th overall, behind Vermont, New York and Hawaii. On a per-capita basis, California also collects significantly more in state and local taxes than either state, according to data from the Tax Foundation. 

At the heart of the issue is the data, Agresti says, making the case that Newsom is likely pulling from the Institute On Taxation & Economic Policy (ITEP) which Agresti said is widely used by mainstream news outlets and experts but is “fatally flawed” because “it does not account for all forms of income or all taxes.”

Agresti has been speaking out against ITEP’s methodology for over a decade, explaining in a 2015 post that the group “uses a partial measure of income in virtually all of its studies” and is “based on calculations that exclude certain taxes.”

CALIFORNIA BILLIONAIRES FLEE STATE’S WEALTH TAX IN THE MOST-PREDICTABLE RESULT EVER

ITEP’s analysis focuses on how tax burdens are distributed across income groups rather than overall tax levels. The group argues that states such as Texas and Florida look “low tax” largely because they do not levy a broad-based personal income tax, a structure that disproportionately benefits high earners.

To make up the difference, those states rely more heavily on sales, excise and property taxes, which tend to take a larger share of income from lower-income households. California, by contrast, uses a highly progressive income tax system that places more of the burden on top earners and helps offset regressive taxes lower down the income ladder.

Critics, however, say that framing captures only part of the picture because it focuses on tax burden by income group rather than overall tax climate, where California remains far more burdensome for top earners, investors and many businesses.

“It’s information from this group and others like it, by the way, that have misled people to believe that middle-income folks in the United States pay a higher federal tax rate than upper-income folks,” Agresti said. 

“In fact, a survey done by Just Facts found that about 80% of America’s voters believe this fiction, even though the Congressional Budget Office, the U.S. Treasury, and the center-left Tax Policy Center all say that middle-income Americans pay an average effective federal tax rate of about 15% while upper income, or the top 1%, pay a rate of about 30%. And by the way, that includes all taxes and all income, all tax loopholes, it’s basically all taxes paid divided by all income earned or received.”

Fox News Digital reached out to ITEP for comment.

Agresti said Newsom is a “master of twisting statistics to paint a picture that is the exact inverse of reality” and pointed to the governor’s claim that the exodus of residents due to high taxes is a “myth.”

“Here’s the facts: According to his own Secretary of State, every year of Newsom’s governorship, more people have moved out of California into other states than have moved from other states into California,” Agresti, who has posted the data on his website, said. “In fact, over the time of his governorship, about 1.5 more million people have left California than moved in.”

“So how does Newsom get his claim, his evidence? Well, he looks at total population growth, which is dominated by immigrants moving in from other countries. The issue is not whether people would rather live in California than Mexico, but whether they would rather live in California than other states. And the data clearly show they do not.”

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

Newsom has also been touting data showing California now has the fourth-largest economy in the world, just surpassing Japan’s, which Agresti also took issue with and described as “fiction” according to his examination of the numbers.

“Here’s the fatal flaw in what he’s doing there,” Agresti said. “He is converting Japanese yen into U.S. dollars using a highly deceptive measure called foreign currency exchange rates. Scholars in this field warn explicitly: You are not to convert GDPs using exchange rates because it inflates the relative sizes of economies that have high prices, as California does. When you actually look at the proper way to transfer these exchange rates and account for them, Japan’s GDP is 56% larger than California’s.”

Additionally, Agresti pointed to data that shows California has a greater rate of poverty than any other state in the nation, as well as electricity prices that are more than twice the national average.

“When you look at California as a whole, it is one of the highest-tax states in the nation, and also there’s a lot of fallout from Newsom’s policies that make it one of the most expensive places to live in the entire United States,” Agresti said.

Fox News Digital reached out to Newsom’s office for comment.

Chicago’s teetering debt is stark warning left-wing mayor is fueling ‘pay later’ doom cycle: expert

Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson and his administration are presiding over a city in serious financial straits. 

Chicago, the nation’s third-largest city, is facing a corporate fund budget gap of more than $1 billion, while its 2025 fiscal year is projected to close with a roughly $150 million deficit with about two-fifths of the budget going toward debt service and pension costs.

Johnson said in April the city was “at a crossroads” and had to “essentially do more with less,” while simultaneously slamming the Trump administration for reportedly threatening federal funding, calling it a “different scenario we weren’t under before.”

Austin Berg, executive director of pro-taxpayer research group Illinois Policy Institute, said markets are looking at the true numbers and are “really concerned” about Chicago.

RECORDS REVEAL CHICAGO MAYOR’S ‘GIFT ROOM’ WAS CONSTRUCTED AFTER INVESTIGATORS TURNED AWAY 

“And that’s why you see the spreads on Chicago debt getting wider and wider — the structural issues,” he said. 

Berg explained that the situation is akin to someone calling financial advisor Dave Ramsey’s radio show to ask what to do while buried in debt.

“The solution set is always the same: Stop making bad decisions, and you have to put a structure in place to make better decisions,” Berg said.

“So, the bad decisions are things like taking one-time revenues from federal COVID spending and putting it into operations. The bad decisions are borrowing for operations, which this latest bond issue just did. That’s a huge no-no and a red flag for investors.”

Chicago also drew scrutiny over former Mayor Richard M. Daley’s 75-year parking meter lease in 2008, a deal critics say has already allowed the private operator to recoup its investment while leaving the city without that revenue stream for decades.

Berg pointed to a recent analysis he authored accusing Johnson of extending the city’s “pay later” culture, arguing that the mayor’s $830 million 2025 bond deal, which delays principal payments for 20 years, is his version of Richard M. Daley’s parking meter boondoggle.

CHICAGO SUES TRUMP DOJ OVER ‘UNLAWFUL’ DEI RESTRICTIONS ON FEDERAL POLICING GRANTS

He also suggested the city take more seriously a plate of $1 billion in potential efficiencies produced in a taxpayer-funded deep-dive by consulting firm EY, formerly Ernst & Young.

While Chicago spends 40% of its money on debt service, actual services suffer, Berg said, adding is also the only city besides New York that doesn’t require voter approval of new general obligation debt.

CHICAGO MAYOR LASHES OUT AT REPORTER OVER ‘ILLEGAL ALIEN’ TERM: ‘RACIST, NASTY LANGUAGE’

The city lacks a “truly independent” chief financial officer, Berg claimed, saying that the treasurer’s office does not have full auditing authority and that another related agency called COFA is understaffed and lacks resources.

“Voters didn’t decide to have all of that debt. And it’s important for voters to be able to decide because those decisions affect Chicagoans 30 years from now. So, shackling them with these political decisions now is just really unfair,” he said.

Chicago has also come under fire for expenditures on social justice and other efforts while city services continue to lack.

Independent journalist William J. Kelly created a viral moment in January when he questioned Johnson on which type of ICE he should be focused on, immigration officers or snow that inundated the city, as he drove through unplowed streets. 

“Let me just commend the efforts of the city employees that made sure that our streets were plowed. … I do not personally plow streets. … No one was stuck,” Johnson replied.

Berg suggested one outlet for Chicago would be to demand the state of Illinois allow municipalities to declare Chapter 9 bankruptcy, which he said is a rare restriction nationally. He noted he did not want to see Chicago declare bankruptcy but that, without that lever, the city has much less leverage when negotiating with public sector unions for the very liabilities it is drowning in.

The City Council successfully killed Johnson’s proposed “head tax,” a per-employee levy on large corporations, which critics said would have driven out or prevented future business and, thereby, sources of revenue in the city.

DHS BLASTS CHICAGO MAYOR FOR COMPARING RAID LEADER TO SEGREGATIONISTS, ACCUSING HIM OF ‘TERROR’

The editorial board of the left-leaning Washington Post also slammed Chicago’s straits in a recent op-ed, writing that “it takes a long time to kill a city, and the bigger the city, the longer it takes.”

“Chicago’s ‘public servants’ have done a fine job speeding up the process,” the board wrote, while noting the city had its bond rating downgraded in February by both Kroll and Fitch.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

“The modest tweaks [council] forced [Johnson] to accept in December won’t change the fiscal trajectory,” the paper predicted.

Fox News Digital reached out to Johnson’s office for comment.

Mystery deepens as Nancy Grace questions ‘accidental’ death of Alabama student in Barcelona

“Crime Stories with Nancy Grace” host Nancy Grace questioned what Spanish authorities deemed an “accidental” death of a college student visiting Barcelona for spring break Thursday on Fox News.

University of Alabama junior James “Jimmy” Gracey, 20, was found dead Thursday in the water off a Barcelona beach, roughly 300 feet from the nightclub he vanished from early Tuesday morning.

“Just because you are found in the water does not mean you drowned. That is not necessarily the COD [cause of death],” Grace told “Hannity.” “I’ve got a lot of questions tonight.”

REMAINS OF JIMMY GRACEY RECOVERED, UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA STUDENT MISSING IN BARCELONA

Gracey traveled to Spain to visit friends studying abroad in Barcelona and was last seen leaving Shoko nightclub around 3 a.m. after becoming separated from his friends, as well as his wallet and phone.

As Spanish authorities moved forward with an autopsy, Grace urged Gracey’s family to hire an independent forensic expert.

“I’m not so sure that I’m going to abide by a Barcelona autopsy, no offense,” Grace said.

Regional Catalan police said they do not suspect foul play, telling Fox News Digital that “everything points to it being an accidental death.”

“His wallet is floating in the water. How did that get disattached from him? And his phone is on another individual — a male with a criminal history?” Grace asked.

“And I’m supposed to believe this was an accident? No, no, I wouldn’t put money on that.”

POLICE CALL JIMMY GRACEY’S DEATH AN ACCIDENT AFTER VANISHING ON SPRING BREAK IN BARCELONA, AUTOPSY PERFORMED

Grace drew parallels to the Alabama student’s disappearance and that of Natalee Holloway, who went missing abroad and was later found murdered in 2005.

“He [Gracey] went to go visit friends in Barcelona that were studying abroad. They all go out to this bar, very reminiscent of Natalee Holloway in Aruba,” Grace said.

“He gets separated for whatever reason from his friends. He is observed in the nightclub… speaking to an American girl described with brown hair,” she explained. “He leaves with an individual — it’s caught on surveillance video. Nobody is telling me who is the individual with whom he left.”

The true crime host demanded a “full and complete” autopsy, while continuing to question the details surrounding what authorities signal as Gracey’s “accidental” drowning.

In a statement to Fox News, Gracey’s family said they are heartbroken by the “unimaginable loss,” expressing gratitude for the outpouring of support they have received.

“We are profoundly grateful for the outpouring of love, support, and prayers from people around the world – so many helped to share Jimmy’s story and bring his life to light so that others may know him,” his family said. “We also sincerely appreciate the continued support and coordination of the local authorities and the U.S. Consulate as we work to better understand the circumstances surrounding this tragedy.”

Cavin McLay, the president of Gracey’s fraternity chapter of Theta Chi, said there are “no words” to describe the pain of losing his friend.

“Jimmy always went out of his way for anyone who needed him, whether that was guidance in their faith, a shoulder to lean on, or simply to share a smile and laugh with,” the statement read in part.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

Gracey’s school, the University of Alabama, also issued a statement.

“The University of Alabama community is heartbroken to learn of the death of Jimmy Gracey. Jimmy’s loss is deeply felt across our campus. Our condolences are with the Gracey family during this devastating time,” the statement read in part. 

Seahawks GM warns Washington’s new ‘millionaire tax’ could hurt free agent recruiting

Seattle Seahawks general manager John Schneider highlighted a recent decision by Washington state lawmakers that he believes could pose problems as the reigning Super Bowl champions look to add players to sustain long-term success.

Washington’s long-standing status as a largely tax-free state is set to change in 2028 after lawmakers approved a “millionaire tax” that would levy a 9.9% rate on high earners. 

The tax will apply to individuals earning more than $1 million annually. Gov. Bob Ferguson has indicated he will sign the bill. It is unclear whether the legislation will face legal challenges. Schneider projected the new tax deduction could hinder the Seahawks’ ability to recruit and ultimately sign free agents.

CLICK HERE FOR MORE SPORTS COVERAGE ON FOXNEWS.COM

Schneider suggested that part of the team’s pitch to free agents over the years has highlighted Washington’s tax exemptions. 

“There were a bunch of agents texting me the other day like, ‘Hey, can’t use that anymore, buddy,’” Schneider said this week on his Seattle Sports 710-AM radio show.

SEAHAWKS GM JOHN SCHNEIDER GOES VIRAL AFTER AWKWARD KENNETH WALKER III CONTRACT TALK AT SUPER BOWL LX PARADE

“I think it is for all the pro teams here in town. It’s always been a huge attraction, especially competing with the California teams. It’s been a big deal for us. So, it’s going to sting, from a recruiting standpoint and what that looks like. I’m sure Mike Reinfeldt and Mickey Loomis and all the cap guys that have been here before, too, are looking at this like, ‘Dang.’”

As of 2026, the Seahawks are one of eight NFL clubs based in a state that does not impose income tax on personal wages.

Two of those teams, the Texans and Cowboys, are based in Texas, while three of those teams play home games in Florida: the Jaguars, Buccaneers and Dolphins. The Raiders relocated from California to the neighboring tax-free Nevada in 2020, while the Titans are set to open a multibillion-dollar domed stadium in Nashville, Tennessee, in 2027.

“It’s going to be a problem, and hopefully it doesn’t happen,” an unnamed NFL agent told ESPN when asked about thoughts on the potential impact the new taxes could have on the Seahawks.

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

While it remains unclear whether the new taxes will influence NFL players’ decisions about signing with the Seahawks, an MLB player recently cited California’s higher tax rates in his decision to turn down a deal with the San Diego Padres.

Merrill Kelly, who entered the free agent market after pitching in 10 games with the Texas Rangers in 2025, last month agreed to a deal to return to the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Kelly agreed to a two-year contract worth an estimated $40 million with the Diamondbacks, according to ESPN. Although the Padres offered a comparable deal at three years instead of two, California’s 13% tax rate on income above $1 million proved a key difference.

“I don’t think it’s any secret on how much money you get taken out of your pocket when you go to California,” the right-hander told “Foul Territory.”