Rubio testifies in trial of ex-Florida congressman allegedly hired by Maduro government to lobby for Venezuela

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is testifying Tuesday in the trial of former Miami congressman and roommate David Rivera, who is accused of trying to lobby members of Congress and the White House on behalf of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. 

Rubio, testifying in a packed federal courtroom in Miami with heightened security, said he and Rivera became “very close” when both overlapped for six years as members of the Florida Legislature in the early 2000s. Rivera, a Republican, was arrested in December 2022 on charges of money laundering and representing a foreign government without registering. 

In July 2017, Rubio said he got a call from Rivera saying he needed to see him urgently to discuss Venezuela. The next morning, Rivera traveled to Washington and, at a meeting at his home, said he was working with Raul Gorrin, a media magnate in Venezuela who was Rivera’s main conduit to the Maduro government, on a plan to persuade Maduro to step aside. 

“I was skeptical,” said Rubio during his testimony, according to The Associated Press, adding that the Maduro government was full of “double dealers” who were constantly pitching plans to betray Maduro. 

VENEZUELA’S DELCY RODRIGUEZ REPLACES SANCTIONED LOYALIST DEFENSE MINISTER WITH MILITARY INTEL HEAD 

“But if there was a 1% chance it was real, and I had a role to play alerting the White House, I was open to doing that,” he added. 

Within days, borrowing talking points provided by Rivera, Rubio wrote and delivered a speech on the Senate floor signaling the U.S. would not retaliate against Venezuelan government insiders who worked to push Maduro from power, the AP reported. 

“He provided me with insight into some of the key phrases that regime insiders would’ve wanted to hear to know this was serious,” Rubio testified. “No vengeance, no retribution.” 

In the indictment against Rivera, there’s no indication that Rubio acted improperly as a senator at the time. 

The allegations come in connection to a $50 million consulting contract Rivera signed with Venezuela’s socialist government. 

The indictment alleges Rivera, at the start of the Trump administration, was part of a conspiracy to lobby on behalf of Venezuela to lower tensions with the U.S., resolve a legal dispute with a U.S. oil company and end U.S. sanctions against the South American nation — all without registering as a foreign agent. 

RUBIO SAYS CUBA NEEDS ‘NEW PEOPLE IN CHARGE’ AS BLACKOUTS, UNREST GRIP ISLAND 

As part of his work, Rivera and his co-defendant are accused of trying to arrange meetings for then-Foreign Minister Delcy Rodríguez — now Venezuela’s acting president — in Dallas, New York, Washington and Caracas, Venezuela, with White House officials, members of Congress and the chief executive officer of Exxon Mobil. 

To cloak their activities, prosecutors said, the co-defendants and others set up a chat group called MIA — for Miami — in which they used Spanish-language code words like “Little Cuban” for Rubio, “The Lady in Red” for Rodríguez and “melons” for millions of dollars. 

“This case is about two things: greed and betrayal,” prosecutor Roger Cruz said in his opening statement Monday. “The evidence will show that for $50 million these two defendants made a pact to secretly lobby for Nicolás Maduro,” as well as for Rodríguez. 

Rivera, 60, counters that his one-man firm, Interamerican Consulting, was hired by an American subsidiary of Venezuela’s state-owned oil company — not the company itself — and therefore did not need to register as a foreign agent. 

His three-month contract, his attorney says, was focused exclusively on luring Exxon back to Venezuela — commercial work that is generally exempt from the Foreign Agents Registration Act. 

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Separate and wholly distinct from that consulting work were his efforts with the Venezuelan opposition to pave the way for Maduro’s exit, Rivera’s defense said. 

‘Americas Counter Cartel Coalition’: Inside the US strategy to combat narco terror, confront China, other foes

FIRST ON FOX: The United States is advancing a sweeping hemispheric security strategy aimed at dismantling transnational criminal organizations and countering the growing footprint of geopolitical rivals across Latin America, according to Joseph M. Humire, acting assistant secretary of War for Homeland Defense and Americas Security Affairs.

At the center of this effort is the “Shield of the Americas,” a multi-layered initiative designed to integrate military, intelligence, and law enforcement capabilities across partner nations in the Western Hemisphere.

“Shield of the Americas is a presidential framing to form an alliance in the Western Hemisphere. The Americas Counter Cartel Coalition fits within it, but it’s not exclusive to it. We now have 18 members in the coalition. And in the Shield, there are 13 countries,” Humire said.

CARTELS FEAR US RETALIATION AS TRUMP-ERA PRESSURE RESHAPES STRATEGY: ‘THEY FEAR THE UNITED STATES’

“The proclamation that President Trump signed on March 7, was centered around the coalition, and the coalition is centered around having partner nations in Latin America start looking at partner-led, deterrence-focused operations against cartel infrastructure and targets inside their sovereign territory, both on land and in the maritime territory.”

Humire said, “In the past, we would provide training, capacity building and a bunch of different things to our partners so that they could go after the cartels. What is different in this administration is we are now accompanying our partners to go after the shared threats. In some cases, we’ve already gotten permission to do that, like in Ecuador, where we have permission from President Daniel Noboa to not just advise and assist his military as they engage in counter-narcotic terrorist operations, but also accompany his military forces when they engage in those operations.”

Humire says, “The second difference to previous administrations is that we are leaning in on deterrence-focused operations, which means we are encouraging our partners to use hard power to send a signal to the cartels to complement interdiction. We are still seizing narcotics. We’re still arresting major cartel members. We are also now destroying cartel infrastructure and, in some cases, taking out cartel members. That’s something that is new.”

Mexico

“Mexico is not a member of the coalition. We are encouraged by Mexico’s recent operation against El Mencho. That was an offensive operation against a high-value individual tied to a major cartel. We look forward to Mexico becoming a member in the future. Our relationship with Mexico is very strong military-wise. We have done a lot of training and capacity building with Mexico. But as of today, we still don’t have U.S. forces accompanying Mexico inside the sovereign territory of the country,” he said.

“Mexico, like many countries, saw what happened in Venezuela and now understand that there’s a partner of preference inside the Western Hemisphere and in the world, which is the United States, not China, Russia or Iran.”

Pentagon actions under this framework include the deployment of additional surveillance assets, enhanced maritime patrol operations, and the integration of cyber capabilities to track and disrupt illicit networks. It has also prioritized capacity-building efforts to strengthen partner nations’ ability to sustain long-term counter-cartel operations.

CRUZ WARNED MEXICO OFFICIALS ‘PRESIDENT TRUMP WAS GOING TO’ ACT IF THEY DIDN’T FIGHT CARTELS

Humire continued, “This is a historic effort to put the Western Hemisphere as a top regional priority for U.S. national security in ways we have never done before. President Trump has made a monumental shift in U.S. foreign policy and national security.”

Beyond cartel activity, the initiative reflects growing concern over the influence of China, Russia and Iran in the region.

Expanding Chinese infrastructure investments with dual-use potential, Iranian-linked networks tied to illicit finance and proxy activities and Russian disinformation campaigns are key threats to regional stability.

To counter these efforts, the Pentagon has increased intelligence cooperation with allied governments, expanded joint cybersecurity initiatives, and supported efforts to secure critical infrastructure from foreign control or exploitation. Military-to-military engagements have also been scaled up to reinforce alignment with U.S. strategic priorities.

Panama

“Since Secretary Hegseth and Secretary Rubio went to Panama last year, China has had significantly less influence inside that country. They lost access to the ports and are no longer advancing their investments,” Humire said.

“China also had a lot of influence over the Panamanian government. That influence is no more. Panama has withdrawn from the Belt and Road Initiative, becoming the first country in Latin America to do so. From the Department of War, we have partnered with Panama to build up an enduring presence on the Panama Canal which includes a jungle operations school on the Atlantic side, and a joint security operation group on the Pacific side. This is all to advance security of the Panama Canal.”

KAROLINE LEAVITT WARNS CARTELS TO ‘NOT LAY A FINGER’ ON AMERICANS OR PAY ‘SEVERE CONSEQUENCES’

Venezuela

Humire continued, “The stabilization efforts in Venezuela are going well. Despite Maduro’s very close relationship with Iran, China and Russia, this was not enough to defend him. In the aftermath of Operation Absolute Resolve, we have seen tension among these different external actors, because while they had levels of cooperation, they don’t have the same exact interests.”

“This is evidenced by the fact that before, during and after Operation Absolute Resolve, neither Russia, China, or Iran, or even Cuba for that matter, were able to do anything to keep Nicolas Maduro in power. They might have sent some equipment and armament, but that didn’t defend Maduro from that operation, and the Cuban security that was with him wasn’t able to defend him. Russia, China, Iran or Cuba could not stop a very successful U.S. military action in support of U.S. law enforcement.”

“The message to all the countries in Latin America, and frankly the world, is that they need to think twice when they partner with Russia, China or Iran because that partnership does not produce results,” Humire said.

Cuba

As part of its broader hemispheric strategy, the administration is also recalibrating its policy toward Cuba, viewing the island as a persistent security concern due to its ties with U.S. adversaries.

“The White House is leading conversations with Cuba in the aftermath of Venezuela. Cuba was reliant on subsidized oil from Venezuela, in exchange for security services. But those security services didn’t do much for Venezuela when it mattered, so I believe there is a bit of a friction between the Cuban and Venezuelan governments,” he said.

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“The Western Hemisphere is our neighborhood; it is intricately tied to U.S. homeland defense. Hemispheric defense is and always has been a key part of U.S. homeland defense. Acknowledging this is why the Western Hemisphere is now a top priority for the Trump administration and especially for the Department of War, as reflected by official policy in the 2025 National Security Strategy and 2026 National Defense Strategy,” Humire told Fox News Digital.

Blue tsunami predictions for November election might not make landfall

To read much political analysis, the results of the November midterm election are already set. The recent Fox News Poll showed Democrats leading Republicans by six points in support for the House. Similarly, last November, both New Jersey and Virginia elected Democrats governors by double digits, suggesting an energized Democratic electorate and a demoralized Republican one.

And, given that the Republicans’ current razor-thin 218-214 margin in the House, a loss of only three Republican-held seats would give the Democrats control. Over in the Senate, the Democrats face more challenging – though not impossible – odds.

As the cliché goes, “a week is a long time in politics.” And the election is not for seven months.

All off-year elections represent a referendum on the president – and given President Donald Trump’s ability to dominate and disrupt – that’s especially true this November. Fortunately for the GOP, there remain a host of known-unknowns – issues that will likely affect the outcome of November’s elections more than the state of the race in March.

SENATE CAMPAIGN CHIEF ‘OPTIMISTIC’ FOR GOP MAJORITY DESPITE DARKENING MIDTERM CLIMATE

The obvious known-unknown is – as always –the economy. But this year – given the current bombing of Iran, the change in leadership in Venezuela and uncertainty about Cuba – Trump’s unorthodox foreign policy actions may be decisive.

People in the know will tell you foreign policy never matters in elections. They’re wrong. A president’s foreign actions – especially military – have an enormous impact on the perception of a president’s strength. President Joe Biden’s chaotic pullout of troops from Afghanistan transformed his job approval overnight. It never recovered. In the face of Disruptive Don, Biden had campaigned as Serious Joe. But the results in Afghanistan, where 13 U.S. soldiers died, made many Americans agree with Trump: he was Sleepy.

In contrast to Biden, Trump seeks to show that his creative disruption is yielding dividends for the U.S. The likely political impact will be measured more by the actual outcome – in the near future rather than today’s polling that suggests voter skepticism.

LIZ PEEK: IRAN WAR COULD BECOME THE ACHIEVEMENT THAT ENSURES TRUMP’S LEGACY

Trump’s disruption seems to have worked in Venezuela, where the U.S. military removed a dictator and where the government seems – for the first time in over a quarter-century – to be acting in a friendly manner with the U.S.

At the end of February, consistent with his persona, Trump again rolled the dice – killing the top leadership of Iran – a country that for almost half a century has embarrassed and threatened the U.S. – arguably destroying Jimmy Carter’s presidency and delivering black eyes to the two most popular presidents of the last 50 years – Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama.

In Iran, Trump faces an adversary that over 60% of American voters think poses a real threat to the U.S. That’s according to the recent Fox News poll (taken after the bombing began on Saturday, February 28). Voters disagree over whether Trump’s actions are correct: More than 80% of Republicans think they’re correct, and a similar eight in 10 Democrats oppose them. But what’s going to matter is whether he gets a clear “win” – as in Venezuela – or not.

HOUSE GOP’S RAZOR-THIN MAJORITY THREATENS TO GRIND TRUMP’S CAPITOL HILL AGENDA TO HALT

The recent results are clearly mixed: oil prices have skyrocketed and Iran seems to have successfully closed the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the bombing continues causing significant damage both to Iran’s infrastructure and to the leadership of the country.

Military analysts disagree on whether that aerial damage will cause them to “cry uncle” and curtail Iran’s ability to continue to cause asymmetric damage to the oil-producing Arab states and the global economy. Political analysts – however – should admit that it’s a clear known-unknown. The reality of Iran – as Americans see it in the fall – will have a major impact on voters’ partisan conclusions in November.

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In contrast to Biden, Trump seeks to show that his creative disruption is yielding dividends for the U.S. 

And 90 miles off the coast of the U.S., Cuba remains as it has for almost 70 years – as an island of opposition and bane of the policies of every U.S. president since Dwight Eisenhower. The loss of the Venezuelan oil that kept their economy afloat, is putting significant pressure on the government.

Marco Rubio – the son of Cuban refugees, is secretary of State. And the Cuban government has seen Trump’s ability to roll the dice, as he did with Venezuela and Iran. Already there are signs that the Cubans are “whispering uncle.” Cuba’s deputy prime minister, Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, told NBC News that “Cuba is open to having a fluid commercial relationship with U.S. companies, also with Cubans residing in the United States and their descendants.”

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I’m not making a military prediction of how any of those three disruptions will be seen in eight months. But their outcome will likely decisively define Trump’s disruptive presidency.

And if you want an idea of who’s going to win in the midterms – it’s those known-unknowns that will decide it, not Trump’s current dismal poll results.

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Venezuela’s Delcy Rodriguez replaces sanctioned loyalist defense minister with military intel head

Venezuela’s acting President Delcy Rodriguez on Wednesday replaced a longtime loyalist military official, as she continues to make changes to her cabinet amid relations with the Trump administration. 

General Gustavo Gonzalez ‌Lopez, 65, will replace General Vladimir Padrino as defense minister, who held the position for more than a decade, Reuters reported. 

In a Telegram post, Rodriguez thanked Padrino for ​his service and said he would be given new responsibilities.

MADURO’S SON GIVES ‘UNCONDITIONAL SUPPORT’ TO NEWLY SWORN IN INTERIM VENEZUELA PRESIDENT

Lopez, who is among several officials sanctioned by the United States and European Union for human rights violations and corruption, was appointed by Rodriguez in January as the head of the presidential guard and the General Directorate of Military Counterintelligence (DGCIM).

TRUMP ISSUES DIRECT WARNING TO VENEZUELA’S NEW LEADER DELCY RODRÍGUEZ FOLLOWING MADURO CAPTURE

He previously worked with Rodriguez as head of strategic affairs at PDVSA, the state-owned oil company, which ​she previously oversaw as energy minister.

Padrino had also been sanctioned by the U.S. ​over alleged drug trafficking and his support for ousted President Nicolas Maduro.

Despite the U.S. intervention, Venezuela’s repressive apparatus remains intact, the United Nations said last week. The government has repeatedly denied allegations of human rights and political oppression. 

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The United States recently restored diplomatic relations with the South American nation following years of heightened tensions between the two states.  

Trump raises eyebrows with ‘statehood’ comment after Venezuela beats the US in World Baseball Classic

Just moments after Venezuela defeated the U.S. in the World Baseball Classic final, President Donald Trump took to Truth Social to send a simple one-word post that divided American fans. 

“STATEHOOD!!!” Trump wrote, only adding his initials. 

The post came a day after Venezuela beat Italy in the WBC semifinal, when Trump sent an initial post that teased statehood for the South American country if it were to win the championship. 

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“Wow! Venezuela defeated Italy tonight, 4-2, in the WBC (Baseball!) Semifinal. They are looking really great. Good things are happening to Venezuela lately! I wonder what this magic is all about? STATEHOOD, #51, ANYONE?” Trump wrote Monday evening.

Trump appeared to double-down on that suggestion with his one-word post Tuesday night after Venezuela’s victory. 

Some followers were encouraging of Trump’s bold suggestion. 

But some followers were not as encouraging. 

“That’s a terrible idea that would cost trillions. We can’t afford the 50 we have now!” one X user wrote in response. 

Another user wrote, “It was just a baseball game. We don’t have to make them a state just so we can say we won the World Baseball Classic!”

TRUMP TOUTS US HAS ‘TREMENDOUS’ AMOUNT OF VENEZUELAN OIL, VOWS TO ‘TAKE CARE’ OF CUBA AFTER IRAN FOCUS

The new year started with the U.S. conducting a military operation in Venezuela, which led to the capture of its leader, Nicolas Maduro, and his wife. The two were brought back to the U.S. to face federal weapons and narco-terrorism charges, among other crimes.

Since then, relations between the U.S. and Venezuela have thawed. An American flag was recently raised over the U.S. Embassy building in Caracas for the first time in seven years.

But Venezuela may have stirred anger among American baseball fans with its 3-2 victory on Tuesday. It was Venezuela’s first WBC title.

JAPAN SUFFERS SHOCKING COLLAPSE TO VENEZUELA IN WORLD BASEBALL CLASSIC

“My country needs that championship,” star outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. said, wiping tears from his eyes. “I just want to make my people proud. That’s what I did today.”

Venezuela acting President Delcy Rodríguez declared Wednesday a National Day of Joy and made it a non-working holiday except for essential workers.

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“They were with us here in our hearts,” Venezuela captain Salvador Perez said of his countrymen. “The World Series, as you all know, is one of the most important championships in the major leagues, but when you fight for your country, that goes beyond. That feeling, the country where you were born and raised, the sacrifices made by our parents, those people that helped us, that’s why this means a lot to me and to Venezuela.”

Repeatedly during the tournament, Venezuelan players described the team as a family, and brothers Willson and William Contreras went on the podium together to receive their medals and sing the Venezuelan anthem, “Gloria al Bravo Pueblo (Glory to the Brave People).”

Trump says he believes he has ‘honor’ of ‘taking Cuba,’ calls Caribbean island a ‘very weakened nation’

President Donald Trump said he believes he has the “honor” of “taking Cuba” as he described the Caribbean island as a “very weakened nation.” 

Trump made the remark to Fox News senior White House correspondent Peter Doocy on Monday, the same day Cuba plunged into a blackout after its entire electrical grid suddenly suffered a total collapse. 

“When you say Cuba is next, is Cuba – whatever you do with the military there, it seems like something – will that look more like Iran or Venezuela?” Doocy asked the president in the Oval Office.  

“I can’t tell you that. I can tell you that they’re talking to us. It’s a failed nation. They have no money, they have no oil, they have no nothing,” Trump responded, before later saying, “I do believe I’ll be the honor of, having the honor of taking Cuba… That’s a big honor.” 

CUBAN PRESIDENT REVEALS TALKS WITH TRUMP ADMINISTRATION AS FUEL BLOCKADE CHOKES DOMESTIC ENERGY SUPPLY AND ECONOMY

“Taking Cuba?” Doocy said. 

“Taking Cuba in some form. Yeah. Taking Cuba, I mean, whether I free it, take it, I think I could do anything I want with it, you want to know the truth?” Trump said. “They’re a very weakened nation right now. They were for a long time. A very violent, very violent leaders. Castro is a very violent leader. His brother is a very violent leader, extremely violent. That’s how they governed. They governed with violence. But a lot of people would like to go back.” 

PROTESTERS TORCH COMMUNIST PARTY HQ IN CUBA; VIDEO APPEARS TO CAPTURE GUNFIRE

The Cuban government is in talks with Trump administration officials, the country’s president said Friday, as Havana works to halt a potential regime change as it deals with a widening energy crisis.  

Cuba’s economy has struggled since the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from his home in Caracas at the start of the year. The Trump administration immediately cut off oil exports to the island.

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Earlier this month, Trump also vowed to “take care” of Cuba’s regime following America’s focus on Iran. 

Trump teases Venezuela as 51st state after team advances to World Baseball Classic final

President Donald Trump weighed in after Venezuela topped Italy in their World Baseball Classic semifinal matchup on Monday.

Venezuela was down a run in the seventh inning when they rallied and put three runs on the board and closed out the game with a 4-2 win. Venezuela will now meet Team USA in the World Baseball Classic final on Tuesday night.

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Trump teased statehood for Venezuela after the victory.

“Wow! Venezuela defeated Italy tonight, 4-2, in the WBC (Baseball!) Semifinal. They are looking really great. Good things are happening to Venezuela lately! I wonder what this magic is all about? STATEHOOD, #51, ANYONE?” he wrote in a post on Truth Social.

The new year started with the U.S. conducting a military operation in Venezuela, which led to the capture of Nicolas Maduro and his wife. The two were brought back to the U.S., as the two faced federal weapons and narco-terrorism charges, among other crimes.

2026 WORLD BASEBALL CLASSIC BRACKET, SCHEDULE, STANDINGS

Since then, relations between the U.S. and Venezuela have thawed. An American flag was recently raised over the U.S. Embassy building in Caracas for the first time in seven years.

Meanwhile, the World Baseball Classic final will feature the U.S. and Venezuela. The Americans are in the final for the third time, having already won the championship once before. Venezuela is in the final for the first time ever.

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The U.S. narrowly defeated the Dominican Republic in their semifinal, which ended with a controversial strike three call.

Iran war success gives president a Trump card to play in China meeting

When President Donald Trump arrives in Beijing later this March for his summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, the official agenda will read like every other U.S.–China meeting in recent memory: tariffs, trade balances, supply chains, Taiwan.

The real story walking through the door with him will be Iran.

On Feb. 28, the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, a sweeping joint campaign targeting Iran’s military, nuclear and command infrastructure. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening strikes — a seismic blow to a regime that had terrorized the region for nearly five decades. Within days, his son Mojtaba was elevated as successor, a dynastic transfer inside a theocracy that once claimed to reject hereditary rule.

The war grinds on — and its consequences are landing on Beijing harder than Xi Jinping ever planned.

STEVE MOORE: FIVE ENERGY TRUTHS THE MEDIA IGNORE AS AMERICA’S OIL BOOM BLUNTS THE IRAN WAR’S IMPACT

Russia and China: not bystanders

Both Moscow and Beijing are actively helping Iran fight this war. That needs to be said plainly, because the administration’s public messaging has been too cautious on this point.

Multiple U.S. officials have confirmed that Russia has been sharing satellite and targeting intelligence with Tehran — including the locations of American warships and aircraft across the Middle East. That information has a cost. Seven U.S. service members have now been killed in Iranian attacks. Iran’s own ISR capability has been largely degraded by our strikes. The precision of the missile and drone attacks that have gotten through owes something to Moscow’s overhead constellation.

TRUMP IS REALIGNING WORLD ENERGY MARKETS AND THE IRAN STRIKES ARE ACTUALLY HELPING

Retired four-star Gen. David Petraeus told Fox News that Russian intelligence support likely explains “some of the accuracy of the missiles and drone strikes.” He called on Trump to push South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham’s Russia sanctions legislation, which has more than 90 senators behind it. Iran’s own foreign minister did not deny the arrangement, telling NBC’s “Meet the Press” that the Iran-Russia military partnership “is still there and will continue.”

An adversary coalition actively helping kill American troops deserves discussion at the table in Beijing.

China’s role is less direct, but no less consequential.

TRUMP SUDDENLY SEEMS ANXIOUS TO END THE WAR AS AMERICAN CASUALTIES MOUNT AND IRAN FINDS WAYS TO HIT BACK

For years, U.S. officials have warned that Chinese firms have funneled technology into Iran’s missile and weapons programs. The Treasury Department has sanctioned Chinese companies repeatedly for supplying missile-related materials to Tehran.

Analysts have also flagged Iran’s interest in the Chinese CM-302 supersonic anti-ship cruise missile — a weapon designed to threaten major naval vessels — which has surfaced in Iranian procurement discussions. Chinese technology already runs through portions of Iran’s missile infrastructure, from electronics to propellant components.

Denial and innocence are not the same thing.

IRAN WAR JEOPARDIZES TRUMP ECONOMIC BOOM BEFORE KEY MIDTERM ELECTIONS

China’s energy vulnerability

For all of Beijing’s public posturing, the Iran war is costing China real money — and Xi knows it.

China built its manufacturing economy on reliable access to cheap energy, including deeply discounted crude from sanctioned states. Iran has been a critical piece of that equation. According to data from Kpler analytics and other tracking firms, China was importing approximately 1.38 million barrels per day of Iranian crude in 2025 — roughly 13% of its total seaborne oil imports, with nearly all of it routed through shadowy intermediaries to evade U.S. sanctions.

IRAN DIDN’T ADAPT TO AMERICA’S PLAYBOOK. RUSSIA AND CHINA ALREADY HAVE

That flow now runs directly through a war zone. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s seaborne oil passes, sits at the center of the conflict. As of this writing, the strait is effectively closed to tanker traffic. For Beijing, that means rising energy costs, supply chain disruption and the loss of one of its most important discounted suppliers — all at once.

The shadow fleet is being dismantled

Compounding the pressure on Beijing is Washington’s intensifying crackdown on the “shadow fleet” — the network of obscurely flagged tankers used to move sanctioned Iranian and Russian crude into Chinese refineries. The Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control has sanctioned dozens of shipping companies, vessels and intermediaries tied to Iranian oil smuggling. Much of that crude terminates in China.

The war grinds on — and its consequences are landing on Beijing harder than Xi Jinping ever planned.

SUSTAINED WAR WITH IRAN COULD DRAIN US MISSILE STOCKPILES, TEST ESCALATION CONTROL

If sanctions enforcement continues tightening — and there is every reason to press harder right now — the gray market that has allowed Beijing to secure cheap energy from sanctioned regimes will shrink. The bill for China’s energy dependency will come due.

Xi’s bind

Xi publicly condemns the war. Privately, Chinese energy firms have been pressing Tehran not to strike Qatari liquid natural gas (LNG) facilities — because China sources roughly 28% of its LNG from Qatar. Defending Iran on the world stage while quietly begging it not to torch your fuel supply is not a position of strength.

IRAN WAR, 11 DAYS IN: US CONTROLS SKIES, OIL SURGES AND THE REGION BRACES FOR WHAT’S NEXT

Xi cannot replace discounted Iranian oil overnight. He cannot rehabilitate a dead supreme leader. And he cannot absorb a prolonged energy shock while his GDP growth target sits at a humbling 4.5% — China’s lowest target in over three decades. Every one of those pressures is leverage Trump should use. This is not the time for diplomatic niceties.

What Trump should demand

The Beijing summit is not a trade negotiation. It is a strategic confrontation, and Trump should walk in knowing exactly what he wants.

TRUMP’S STRIKE ON IRAN DEALS A MAJOR BLOW TO PUTIN’S WAR MACHINE IN UKRAINE

First, Xi must use his documented leverage over Moscow to halt Russian intelligence support for Iranian attacks on American forces. Gen. Petraeus is right that sanctions on Russia are long overdue. But China’s economic exposure to this war gives Washington a second lever — and Trump should pull it simultaneously.

Second, China must shut down the missile technology pipeline to Tehran. Treasury Secretary Bessent is already weighing pressing Beijing on sanctioned oil purchases in his pre-summit talks with Vice Premier He Lifeng in Paris. That pressure must extend explicitly to weapons transfers — the CM-302 deal, propellant shipments, dual-use components. Washington is tracking all of it.

Third, Beijing’s rare earth export restrictions — imposed in retaliation for U.S. tariffs and designed to complicate American weapons replenishment — need to be called what they are: economic warfare. The tightening energy markets created by this conflict give Washington leverage it has not held in years. Expanded U.S. LNG exports and Gulf energy cooperation are available — but only for real concessions, not diplomatic theater.

For years, U.S. officials have warned that Chinese firms have funneled technology into Iran’s missile and weapons programs. 

The real question in Beijing

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For years, Beijing methodically cultivated an authoritarian axis with Iran, Russia and Venezuela as a hedge against American power. Iran is now destabilized. Venezuela is out of Beijing’s orbit. Russia is exposed. The axis that gathered in Beijing last September brimming with confidence looks considerably more fragile today.

Xi will arrive at this summit hoping to stabilize the relationship and project strength on his own soil. Trump should arrive knowing that the Iran war has handed Washington something genuinely rare in the long history of U.S.–China diplomacy.

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Leverage.

The card is in Washington’s hand. The question is whether Trump plays it.

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