Historian who correctly predicted 9 of the last 10 elections makes his 2024 pick
The American University historian who has correctly predicted the outcomes of nine of the last ten presidential elections tells Fox News Digital that the Democrats “finally got smart” by rallying around Kamala Harris as their candidate – and that is one of the reasons why he thinks she will be November’s winner.
The formula Allan Lichtman has used to correctly predict nearly every presidential race since 1984, his “Keys to the White House,” was developed in 1981 with mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok and is based on their analysis of presidential elections dating back to 1860. The “keys” consist of 13 true or false questions, parameters that, if true, favor stability.
“The way it works is real simple. If six or more keys — any six — go against the White House party, they are predicted losers. Otherwise, they’re predicted winners,” Lichtman told Fox News Digital this week. “And by the way, this also led to a prediction of Donald Trump’s win, which made me virtually alone in making that prediction in 2016.”
Lichtman says the Democrats represented by Harris could lose five keys “at most” and that is why he is predicting that “we are going to have a precedent-breaking election and Kamala Harris will become the first woman President of the United States.”
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“We’ve had an unprecedented situation of a sitting president dropping out on the eve of the convention, and it has affected my keys,” Lichtman continued. “Now, with Biden dropping out, the Democrats lost one key — the incumbency key. I thought perhaps the way things were looking, if Biden dropped out, the [Democrats] would have a big party brawl and that would cost them a second key, which could lose them the election. But the Democrats finally got smart and united behind Harris and that preserved the contest key. That means the shift only cost them one key.”
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Lichtman describes the contest key as having “no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.” The other keys are as follows: party mandate, incumbency, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military failure, foreign/military success, incumbent charisma and challenger charisma.
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“I think having Harris front and center rather than Joe Biden, the policymaker, has dampened enthusiasm for protests which helped salvage a second key, the social unrest key,” Lichtman also said. “The keys show that Kamala Harris is a predicted winner.”
19-year-old US Air Force Academy cadet found dead in dorm room
The U.S. Air Force Academy in Colorado has launched an investigation after a 19-year-old cadet was found dead in her dorm room this week.
Cadet 4th Class Avery Koonce, 19, of Taylor, Texas, was “found unconscious in her dormitory” on Wednesday night and attempted life-saving measures by first responders were unsuccessful, the Academy said in a statement. Koonce was set to graduate in 2028 and was a member of the women’s track and field team.
“We lost an incredible teammate… While only with us for a short time, Avery positively impacted her unit, her intercollegiate team, and her class – her loss will be felt across USAFA,” Academy Superintendent Lt Gen Tony Bauernfeind said. “Our team is focused on providing support to Avery’s family, Cadet Squadron 38, the Track and Field team, and the entire Academy family.”
“Avery, may you find blue skies and tailwinds as you rest forever in peace,” the Academy added.
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Koonce attended Thrall High School, according to the Austin American-Statesman, which quoted the district’s superintendent as saying that she was the president of the student council and leader of the National Honor Society.
“She was the epitome of our high school,” Superintendent Tommy Hooker told the newspaper. “She is what you would want in a well-rounded student. Our community is at kind of at a loss with our feelings. We are just kind of devastated.”
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U.S. Rep. Pete Sessions, who nominated Koonce to attend the U.S. Air Force Academy outside of Colorado Springs, also told the Austin American-Statesman that he was “incredibly saddened to hear about the loss of Cadet Koonce.”
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“She was a thoughtful and articulate young woman, well prepared for success at the U.S. Air Force Academy. … Cadet Koonce was a remarkable leader and her loss is felt by her community in Texas and fellow USAFA Cadets,” Sessions added.
Karen Read, accused of murdering her cop boyfriend, makes bombshell accusation
The Massachusetts woman accused of fatally running over her police officer boyfriend in January 2022 is claiming she’s been framed.
Karen Read, 44, sat down for her first media interview this week, speaking with ABC’s “20/20” about what she characterized as a police conspiracy to blame her for the mysterious death of her boyfriend, John O’Keefe.
Read is accused of running over the 46-year-old officer with her SUV and leaving him to die in the cold outside a friend’s house following a night of heavy drinking. O’Keefe was being dropped off to attend a party at the residence, owned by retired officer Brian Albert.
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Read and two friends reportedly drove to Albert’s house to look for O’Keefe and found his body in the early morning of the next day.
“I jumped out the passenger side, and I fell into the street. His eyes were shut, and he had spots of blood in different areas on his face, and he was still — not stiff, but still,” Read told “20/20” about finding her boyfriend’s body the day after. “It was cold. I felt cold, but I didn’t feel dangerously cold and it was just an odd feeling to know that ‘I’m OK. I’m not dying, but he’s here with me, and he’s dying, and I can’t warm him up.’”
The defense has made the eyebrow-raising assertion that O’Keefe was fatally injured in an altercation at the house party and left outside to frame her for the crime in a department-sweeping conspiracy.
Lawyers point to the placement of injuries on the victim’s body — trauma to the head and hands — as evidence he was attacked and not hit by a large vehicle.
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A piece of evidence at the heart of the case against Read is a broken tail light on the back of her Lexus SUV — shards of red plastic consistent with such a light were found on O’Keefe’s body at the scene.
Other considerations include her blood alcohol content far above the legal limit and furious voicemails left on the victim’s phone by Read accusing him of infidelity and expressing “hate” for him.
Read described to “20/20” the moment she met with O’Keefe’s parents and realized they suspected her of the murder.
“They had pulled into the driveway before me. I was presuming she saw my cracked taillight and was thinking, ‘Did you hit my son?’” Read said. “When we were driving home, I said to my father, ‘I gotta get an attorney.’”
“Is it possible that you might have hit him unwittingly, in your admittedly very large SUV?” interviewer Matt Guttman asked.
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“No,” Read replied. “Not possible.”
Read is charged with second-degree murder and vehicular manslaughter. She went to court in July, which ended in a mistrial. Prosecutors plan to retry her in January.
The bizarre and twisting trial has been made even more noteworthy by the response it has sparked in the public — the case has attracted large crowds of protesters on both sides.
“You’re brave,” Read told a group of supporters following the mistrial, according to footage obtained by WCVB. “You would’ve protested the Vietnam War and ended it. And this is the modern equivalent to that, so thank you all.”
NFL star suffers injury in final seconds as Packers lose to the Eagles in Brazil
Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love suffered an injury in the final seconds of his team’s 34-29 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Brazil on Friday.
On the second to last play of the game, with the Packers in their own territory and looking for a miracle to win the game, Love got his legs wrapped up by Eagles defenders.
In the moment, he flipped the ball to running back Josh Jacobs and fell down.
But after the play, Love was seen rolling in pain and needed help to walk off the field.
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Former third-round pick Malik Willis, who the Packers traded for from the Tennessee Titans this offseason, ran the final two plays for Green Bay.
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Love, in his second year as a full-time starter, threw for 260 yards with two touchdowns and one interception before the injury, and had the Packers in position to take the lead multiple times late in the game.
But Love failed to lead a touchdown drive on the Packers’ final five drives, only managing a field goal in the game’s final 27 minutes.
Love had high expectations going into his second season after leading the Packers to a playoff win over the Dallas Cowboys last season. Love threw for 4,159 yards with 32 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 2023, then 466 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions in two playoff games.
If he is out for a significant amount of time, the Packers will need Willis to step up. The team’s next three games are against the Colts, Titans and Vikings – all teams who failed to make the playoffs last season. But their schedule gets tougher starting in Week 5 against the Los Angeles Rams.
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Meanwhile, the Eagles are undefeated in Brazil as they got the win in the first ever NFL game played in South America.
Saquon Barkley led the way for Philadelphia, scoring three touchdowns with 132 total yards in his debut for the Eagles. Barkley recovered after his very first play for the Eagles was a five-yard loss after he slipped on a toss play.
Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts threw for 278 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions and also had a fumble after a failed exchange with new center Cameron Jurgens, who replaced Jason Kelce after his retirement this year.
Jurgens had multiple bad snaps in the game and the Eagles nearly lost a fumble at the goal line in the final minute.
Marine vet taking on longtime Dem aims to flip seat red by ‘running on American dream’
A Marine Corps veteran is taking on longtime Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, attempting to flip the seat red by “running on the American dream.”
“I am the living, breathing embodiment of the American dream and everything that’s possible in a great free country like ours. And I got in this race because I see that dream dying,” Republican Senate candidate John Deaton said on “Fox & Friends.”
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Massachusetts has not elected a Republican to statewide office since moderate GOP Gov. Charlie Baker left the governor’s mansion in January 2023. Polling suggests Warren, a former registered Republican herself, is a strong favorite to hold her seat in November.
“You have these elites like Elizabeth Warren. They sit back, hyper-partisan people, and they fuel division so that they can stay in power. And people are tired of it. And I think they’re ready for change. And I’m going to bring that change to Massachusetts.”
Massachusetts typically votes blue. However, Deaton says his anti-partisan voice will help him break the “perception” around Warren and prompt a state shift in favor of the GOP candidate.
“My loyalty is going to be to Massachusetts and America. I served in the Marine Corps. I took an oath. I know what that oath means to serve your country. Elizabeth Warren is loyal to the Democratic Party. She’s loyal to her agenda and her own political motivations and ambitions. I will have one test in the United States Senate. Is it good for Massachusetts and America? If it is, I’m all in. And if it’s not, it’s not.”
“That test and that loyalty is what’s going to separate us.”
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When it comes to key issues for voters, Deaton emphasized illegal immigration and the cost of living as “two big issues” that did not exist a few years ago. He pointed to Warren, claiming she is “losing support every day because of her hyper-partisan politics and her loyalty to just a particular agenda.”
Deaton secured a victory in the Massachusetts primary against two other GOP candidates. He garnered 64.9% of the vote while his competitors Bob Antonellis got 25.9% and Ian Cain got 9.1%.
The primary win sets Deaton up to face Democratic Sen. Warren in November.
‘Legally Blonde’ star seen holding hands with new mystery man after divorce
Reese Witherspoon and financier Oliver Haarmann have reportedly taken their friendship to the next level.
Over the summer, Witherspoon and Haarmann were spotted several times together. On Wednesday, the pair were seen holding hands in New York City. The “Morning Show” actress wore a tight, black dress, and Haarmann wore a navy blazer and khakis.
The pair attended an Assouline opening event in New York City together Sept. 4, and sources confirmed to People they are “casually” dating.
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The source told the outlet they are “friends” and “taking things slow when it comes to dating.”
“She enjoys it but doesn’t want it to be a big focus. She’s busy with work and her son,” the source noted. “These are her biggest priorities.”
“She enjoys it but doesn’t want it to be a big focus. She’s busy with work and her son. These are her biggest priorities.”
In March 2023, Witherspoon and Jim Toth announced their divorce after almost 12 years of marriage. The former couple share son Tennessee, 11. Witherspoon was previously married to Ryan Phillippe, and they have a daughter Ava, 24, and son Deacon, 20.
Below is what to know about Witherspoon’s new reported romantic interest.
The financier
Haarmann, 57, attended Brown and Harvard and earned a masters in business administration, according to LinkedIn.
Haarmann got his career started at KKR, a global investment firm in London. He then founded the private equity firm Searchlight Capital Partners in 2010. According to the company’s website, Haarmann has continued to serve as a partner at Searchlight Capital and works with the two co-founders to oversee the firm’s portfolio.
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Minority owner of the New York Islanders
Sportico reported in December 2023 that Haarmann was negotiating to buy 10% of the New York Islanders. The New York Post reported several months later that Haarmann had acquired a small stake in the professional ice hockey team.
The New York Islanders directory lists Haarmann as a co-owner.
Haarmann has been married
Haarmann was previously married to Mala Gaonkar, and they have two children together. According to People, Gaonkar is a financier herself and launched her own hedge fund, SurgoCap Partners, in 2022.
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Spotted with Witherspoon
Witherspoon and Haarmann dined at L’Artusi in the Big Apple in July. The couple flew into New York City the day before via helicopter.
The duo took a helicopter into the city again in September.
Witherspoon’s sons, Deacon and Tennessee, were also with the couple in NYC.
Witherspoon feels ‘authentic’
The award-winning actress has been open about her struggles going through divorce publicly. Now, being able to share her side of the story has allowed her to feel more “authentic.”
“To be able to talk to people directly about what’s going on in my life and just share it in the way that I share great professional experiences or personal experiences, it feels much more authentic to be able to say things in my own voice and not let somebody else control what’s happening,” she told Harper’s Bazaar in 2023.
“Then, of course, there’s speculation, but I can’t control that. All I can do is be my most honest, forthright self and be vulnerable.”
Toth and Witherspoon issued a joint statement when they decided to announce their separation in March 2023.
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“It is with a great deal of care and consideration that we have made the difficult decision to divorce,” they said at the time. “We have enjoyed so many wonderful years together and are moving forward with deep love, kindness and mutual respect for everything we have created together.”
Friend who refuses to split dinner bill evenly at group outing ignites online debate
A person took to the Reddit platform asking for advice after refusing to pay a bigger portion of the dinner bill for a smaller order.
The Reddit user claimed to have gone to a nice dinner out with a group of five friends but wasn’t too hungry.
“We went to a pretty nice restaurant, [and] I wasn’t that hungry, so I just ordered a small appetizer and a drink, which totaled around $15,” the person said.
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“However, most of the others ordered multiple courses, drinks and desserts, with their meals adding up to over $50 each.”
The user said that when the check arrived at the end of the meal, a friend at the table suggested the six of them split it evenly.
“That would’ve meant I’d be paying around $50, which is way more than what I ordered,” the Redditor wrote.
After noting he or she wasn’t comfortable paying that amount, two of the friends at the table “got annoyed” and said the Reddit user was “being cheap.”
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But the person responded by standing firm and only paying for his or her specific portion of the meal.
Later on, however, the Redditor said the situation was brought up in the friend group’s text message chain.
The user said, “One of them brought it up again, saying I ruined the vibe of the night by being difficult over a few dollars and that splitting evenly is what friends do.”
The user asked others on the platform if he or she was wrong, saying it felt “unfair to me to pay for everyone else’s expensive meals when I didn’t really eat much.”
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Other users took to the comments to discuss the matter — and many agreeed with the post writer by saying the person was not wrong.
One user wrote, “It’s hilarious that they accuse OP [the original poster] of being cheap when they [the friends] were the ones who don’t even want to pay for what they ordered.”
Another said, “Your friends had a chance to do the reasonable thing at the restaurant and got irritated instead — and then they dragged it out after.”
California-based etiquette expert Rosalinda Randall told Fox News Digital that the user should have simply split the bill if the person thought it was going to cause an issue.
“In some cases, it’s too difficult or awkward to split the check to match whatever you consumed. Pay up,” Randall said.
Randall suggested thinking of the charge as “an investment for being a part of the group and for having a good time.”
If on a tight budget, the etiquette expert suggested planning in advance for these social outings.
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“Whether it’s just drinks and appetizers or a full meal, if you have budget concerns, you don’t drink, or just order a small salad, discuss it with your friends in advance,” she said.
“Don’t wait until the check arrives to break it to them.”
She recommended cutting back on other expenses during the week, declining to go to events, requesting a separate check or bringing cash to the meal.
Overall, however, she said, “If relationships have history, you all get along, and it has many positive aspects. Don’t let an off-balanced split check split up the relationship.”
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She added, “Don’t let a few dollars ruin your relationship or get you on the ‘do not invite’ list.”
Fox News Digital reached out to the Reddit user for further comment.