The New York Times 2024-09-25 13:39:04


Thousands Flee Southern Lebanon, as Israel Presses Air Attack on Hezbollah

Pinned

Euan WardAaron Boxerman and Ronen Bergman

Here are the latest developments.

Thousands of people tried to escape southern Lebanon on Tuesday, as Israel’s military pounded the region with more strikes against Hezbollah, including in the densely populated neighborhoods south of Beirut.

Panicked by the intensity of two days of Israeli attacks, civilians continued to stream out of southern Lebanon, clogging the main roads and gas stations leading into the capital. U.N. and Lebanese officials said on Tuesday that 27,000 displaced people had already been settled in temporary shelters. Others slept in cars, parks and along the beach.

“The numbers continue to grow,” Matthew Saltmarsh, a spokesman for the U.N.’s refugee agency, said in Geneva. “The toll on civilians is unacceptable.”

As many residents scrambled to arrange transportation for older family members still trapped in southern town and cities, Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, the Israeli military’s chief spokesman, told reporters that Israel aspired to have “as short a campaign as possible” against Hezbollah in Lebanon, adding that the military was striking with such “high intensity” there in an effort to achieve that objective.

Yoav Gallant, the Israeli defense minister, told soldiers in a video statement that Hezbollah had been hit hard. “Hezbollah today is different from the organization we knew a week ago,” Mr. Gallant said.

One Israeli strike on Tuesday hit near Beirut, in an area known as the Dahiya where Hezbollah is the dominant power, destroying a six-story building, according to Lebanon’s state-run news agency. Six people had been killed and 15 others injured, Lebanon’s health ministry said.

The Israeli military claimed the strike had killed Ibrahim Mohammed Qobeisi, which it identified as a senior Hezbollah commander who oversaw Hezbollah’s missile apparatus. Hezbollah, in confirming that Mr. Qobeisi had been killed, provided no details on his role, but referred to him by an honorific title reserved only for the group’s senior members.

Hezbollah had fired about 350 rockets into Israel on Tuesday, the Israeli military said in a statement. Most of the rockets were intercepted, as sirens and explosions were heard in several communities.

The strikes have unnerved the Middle East, sparking fears of a war involving ground troops between Israel and Hezbollah, as the fighting in Gaza continues with no clear prospect of a truce.

Lebanon’s health minister raised the death toll from the strikes to 558 people, with another 1,800 injured, making Monday the country’s deadliest day since a civil war that ended in 1990. The ministry’s figures do not distinguish between civilians and combatants, although the health minister, Firass Abiad, said on Tuesday that scores of women and children were among those killed.


Map showing the locations of Israeli strikes in Lebanon on Monday.

Here is what else to know:

  • Biden at the U.N.: President Biden, delivering his final speech to the United Nations on Tuesday, called for a cease-fire in Gaza, returning to one of his central demands about the war even as some White House officials have acknowledged that the goal might be difficult to obtain in the last months of his tenure. “I put forward with Qatar and Egypt a cease-fire and hostage deal,” Mr. Biden said. “It’s been endorsed by the U.N. Security Council. Now is the time for the parties to finalize its terms.”

  • A shift in attention: With all eyes on Israel’s escalating battle with Hezbollah in Lebanon, many families of hostages still held by Hamas in Gaza fear that any hopes to achieve a deal for their release are rapidly vanishing, And they worry that their country’s resources will be directed to the conflict in the north.

  • Travel disruptions: Beirut’s international airport remains open, but flights in and out appear to be heavily disrupted after a number of airlines announced they were suspending services. Most departures for Tuesday — 28 at last count — have been canceled, and the airport’s online arrivals board is also showing cancellations.

  • Automated calls: People in Lebanon received text messages and automated calls warning them to move away from Hezbollah’s weapons caches. That drew criticism from rights groups, which argued that Lebanese civilians would have no means of knowing where military targets were located. Lebanon’s information minister accused Israel of “psychological warfare.”

The British government said in a statement on Tuesday that its citizens should leave Lebanon, noting that about 700 British troops were being sent to nearby Cyprus after the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah escalated in recent days. John Healey, the defense secretary, said that the call to leave Lebanon had come after a meeting with government ministers, intelligence chiefs and diplomats on Tuesday. “Events in the past hours and days have demonstrated how volatile this situation is,” he said.

Hezbollah has confirmed the death of Ibrahim Mohammed Qobeisi, whom the Israeli military targeted in a strike south of Beirut on Tuesday. He had been in charge of the group’s missile apparatus, the Israeli military said. Hezbollah provided no details on his role, but referred to him by an honorific title reserved only for the group’s senior members.


The Security Council will convene an emergency session on Lebanon at 6 p.m. Wednesday. France’s foreign minister requested the meeting after Israeli attacks killed more than 500 Lebanese people in one day.

Israel achieved short-term aims in a week of attacks on Hezbollah, officials say, but the end goal is unclear.

Israel achieved many short-term goals in a series of strikes on Hezbollah during the last week, according to five current and former senior Israeli officials. But they also expressed concern that there was no clear further strategy on bringing calm and returning tens of thousands of displaced people back to Israel’s north.

The escalations against Hezbollah began almost by chance after last-minute Israeli intelligence suggested that an operation to blow up pagers owned by members of the Iranian-backed Lebanese militia was in danger of being exposed, according to the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter. If the plan was not activated by the beginning of last week, the officials said, Hezbollah might discover it, possibly along with a second operation targeting walkie-talkies.

That set up a dizzying week of attacks in Lebanon. Israel blew up electronic devices distributed by Hezbollah, killing dozens of people and injuring thousands more. It then assassinated a group of its military leaders in an airstrike near Beirut. On Monday, a wave of Israeli airstrikes targeting parts of the country where Hezbollah holds sway killed hundreds of people.

The intensified attacks against Hezbollah reflect the opinion of some hawkish generals and others who think that the group can be forced to back down, the officials said, while others in the government believe Israel must first come to a deal on a cease-fire and hostage deal with Hamas before turning to another battleground. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has opposed a truce that would allow Hamas to survive the war.

The decision to escalate was met with strong opposition from some senior officials, according to three current and former officials who spoke to The Times. They worried that such actions, the officials said, could lead to all-out war with face-to-face fighting and questioned how they would pave the way for the return of Israelis to the north.

Hezbollah has been targeting northern Israel with rockets and drones since last year in solidarity with Hamas and its war against Israel in Gaza. Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader, has said the group will not agree to stop firing at Israel until Israel and Hamas reach an agreement that ends the war in Gaza.

Israel has argued that Hezbollah uses Lebanese civilians as human shields and embeds weapons amid the population and that is why the Israeli military must strike populated areas.

In a video message released Tuesday in Hebrew, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel warned people in Lebanon that “those who have a missile in their living room and a rocket in their garage will not have a home.” He said something similar in an English language video released Monday. In both videos, he told the Lebanese people, “Our war is not with you. Our war is with Hezbollah.”

Israel says it killed another top leader of Hezbollah, the latest blow in a concerted campaign.

The Israeli military said Tuesday that it had killed a senior Hezbollah commander in an airstrike in Beirut, the latest blow in what appears to be a concerted Israeli attempt to take out the group’s leadership.

Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, the Israeli military spokesman, identified the target as Ibrahim Mohammed Qobeisi, a senior Hezbollah commander who oversaw Hezbollah’s missile apparatus. Hezbollah later confirmed that Mr. Qobeisi had been killed. The group provided no details on his role, but referred to him by an honorific title reserved only for Hezbollah’s senior members.

The Israeli military says that Mr. Qobeisi planned the abduction of three Israeli soldiers in 2000; their bodies were later returned to Israel in a prisoner exchange.

Israel has stepped up efforts to assassinate Hezbollah’s top leaders in recent weeks as part of a campaign to compel the Iranian-backed militant group to stop firing rockets and drones at Israel. For nearly a year, Hezbollah has been attacking Israel in solidarity with Hamas in Gaza, displacing tens of thousands of Israelis from border communities.

The campaign against the top echelon in Hezbollah comes after months of attacks that, Israeli military analysts said, have somewhat degraded Hezbollah’s military capabilities.

Over the past two months, Israel has killed at least two members of Hezbollah’s top military decision-making body, the Jihad Council, and tried to assassinate another.

In July, an Israeli airstrike in Beirut’s southern suburbs killed Fuad Shukr, one of the leaders of Hezbollah’s military operations and a confidante of the group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah. That attack was a reprisal for a rocket attack from Lebanon that killed 12 children in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights.

Last Friday, Israeli forces flattened a residential building in an airstrike targeting Ibrahim Aqeel, another top Hezbollah leader, alongside several other leaders of the group’s commando unit. At least 55 people were killed in the strike, including several children and other noncombatants.

And on Monday, Israel tried to assassinate a third member of the Jihad Council, Ali Karaki, with an airstrike in Beirut. Hezbollah has denied that Mr. Karaki was killed and has said he had been taken to a “safe place” in the wake of the strike.

Furious over the continuing war in Gaza, world leaders castigate Israel.

Middle Eastern and other leaders who addressed the opening session of the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday castigated Israel for what they characterized as its heedless disregard for civilian lives in its war in Gaza.

“Gaza has become the world’s largest cemetery for women and children,” President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey said in a 20-minute broadside against Israel.

While Israel has long been a target of criticism in the United Nations General Assembly, the war with Hamas in Gaza, as well as Israel’s sharply intensified attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon, have ratcheted up the sweep of denunciations by numerous world leaders. Some also condemned the Hamas-led Oct. 7 attack on Israel that killed more than 1,200 people.

Without naming the United States specifically, Mr. Erdogan lambasted those countries that have called for a cease-fire while continuing to deliver weapons to Israel. He said that the need to confront the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel was as imperative as the World War II effort to confront Hitler. And he hailed university students and other protesters around the world for their stand against the war in Gaza.

Danny Danon, the Israeli ambassador to the United Nations, responded in a statement, saying that while terrorists in both Gaza and Lebanon were attacking Israel, “There is Erdogan who comes every year to the U.N. and spreads pure hatred against the state of Israel.” Mr. Netanyahu is expected to address the General Assembly on Thursday, a trip he delayed earlier this week amid the expanded assault on Hezbollah.

The leaders who spoke critically of Israel all referred to the staggering death toll in Gaza — more than 41,000, according to the local health authorities — as they sought to illustrate the war’s devastation.

“This Israeli government has killed more children, more journalists, more aid workers, and more medical personnel than any other war in recent memory,” said King Abdullah II of Jordan, expressing anger and frustration over the Israeli attacks on Gaza and parallel deadly clashes in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

In one of the few concrete proposals for addressing at least part of the crisis, Abdullah called for the United Nations to enforce a “Gaza humanitarian gateway” to deliver food, water, medicine and other desperately needed supplies.

He and other speakers suggested that Israel was not interested in achieving peace with the Arab world. “Consecutive Israeli governments, emboldened by years of impunity, have rejected peace and chosen confrontation instead,” he said.

Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the emir of Qatar, whose mediators were instrumental in negotiating a temporary cease-fire and an exchange of prisoners for hostages late last year, also suggested that Israel was not a sincere partner in later peace talks that are now at a stalemate.

“A whole society is destroyed in the course of the genocide against segments of the Palestinian people,” he said.

Israel has maintained that it is Hamas that is not bargaining in good faith.

Mr. Al Thani also said that the booby-trapped pagers and walkie-talkies that killed hundreds of people and injured thousands more in Lebanon last week were a “major crime.” Current and former defense officials have attributed the blasts to an Israeli operation against Hezbollah. Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attacks.

President Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa stressed that his country’s case before the International Court of Justice accusing Israel of committing genocide in Gaza was connected to his own country’s experience.

“The violence the Palestinian people are being subjected to is a grim continuation of more than half a century of apartheid that has been perpetrated against Palestinians by Israel,” Mr. Ramaphosa said. “We South Africans know what apartheid looks like. We lived through apartheid. We suffered and died under apartheid. We will not remain silent and watch as apartheid is perpetrated against others.”

Many of the leaders accused the United Nations of failing in its moral obligation to bring about a cease-fire in Gaza.

“It’s no surprise that both inside and outside this hall, trust in the U.N.’s cornerstone principles and ideals is crumbling,” said King Abdullah.

Farnaz Fassihi, Safak Timur and Anushka Patil contributed reporting.

Funerals were taking place on Tuesday in Beirut for those killed in previous days. In Dahiya, the Hezbollah stronghold south of the Lebanese capital, relatives wept and bid farewell to the bodies of two men, five women and two children. They were all victims of a strike on Friday that killed a number of Hezbollah fighters and Lebanese civilians in the same suburb.

As a reminder of how tense the situation remained, less than two hours before the funeral was due to begin, a fresh Israeli airstrike targeted a residential building just a few blocks from the cemetery. That prompted the cancelation of the official ceremony, but a number of relatives still showed up to attend the burial of their loved ones.

Yoav Gallant, the Israeli defense minister, told soldiers on Tuesday in a video statement that Hezbollah had suffered “severe blows,” adding that, “Hezbollah today is different from the organization we knew a week ago.”

Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, the chief spokesman for the Israeli military, told reporters in a briefing on Tuesday that Israel aspired to have “as short a campaign as possible” against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

He added that the military was striking with such “high intensity” there in the hopes of deterring Hezbollah and achieving that goal. But he also noted that Hezbollah had fired about 300 rockets into Israel on Tuesday.

Danny Danon, Israel’s ambassador to the U.N., indicated Tuesday that Israel was open to ways to de-escalate tensions in Lebanon. While attending the U.N. General Assembly in New York, he posted on social media that “a diplomatic move is always better than a confrontation.”

The Biden administration has been working to reach a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas that would end the war in Gaza, return hostages captured on Oct. 7 and de-escalate fighting in Lebanon. But those talks have stalled.

Hezbollah claimed to have directly targeted at least five civilian communities in northern Israel on Tuesday. It was an unusually high number and followed pledges earlier this year by Hezbollah’s chief, Hassan Nasrallah, to attack new Israeli towns and cities if Lebanese civilians continued to be killed. The wave of Israeli bombardment on Monday left around 100 women and children dead, Lebanon’s health ministry said.

Netanyahu, delayed by Israel’s new assault on Hezbollah, faces broad censure from gathered leaders.

In his address to the United Nations General Assembly a year ago, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel spoke ambitiously of an Israel poised to become a “bridge of peace and prosperity” between Asia and Europe, envisaging a pathway to ending the Arab-Israel conflict that largely bypassed the issue of Palestinians.

Two weeks later, on Oct. 7, a brutal, Hamas-led assault on southern Israel led to a devastating Israeli military campaign in Gaza. That in turn drew attacks from Iranian-allied militias, including the Houthis, who have disrupted global shipping in the Red Sea, and Hezbollah, which has sent rockets into northern Israel from Lebanon. Now, a new Israeli offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon is bringing the region to the brink of a broader war.

At this year’s General Assembly, Mr. Netanyahu’s moment on the world stage will be clouded by the conflict and the backdrop of global condemnation for his prosecution of the war in Gaza. More than 41,000 people have been killed in Gaza, according to local health authorities, who do not distinguish between civilians and combatants. And more than 600 Palestinians have been killed over the same period in the occupied West Bank, mostly in military actions and a few at the hands of extremist Jewish settlers, according to the United Nations.

Israel is battling a genocide case at the U.N.’s top court over the Gaza war while the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court has requested arrest warrants for Mr. Netanyahu and his defense minister, Yoav Gallant, along with several Hamas leaders, on accusations of crimes against humanity.

And in just days of intense Israeli assaults on southern and eastern Lebanon, hundreds of people have been reported dead and thousands wounded. With that escalation still underway, Mr. Netanyahu has delayed his arrival in New York by days, and his speech appears to have been brought forward from Friday to Thursday, to shorten his time abroad.

For Mr. Netanyahu, the assembly presents an opportunity to make Israel’s case. As Israel’s longest serving prime minister — his first term in office was in the 1990s, though he has been in and out of power since — he ranks as one of the assembly’s most veteran leaders.

“He’s the figure most identified with Israel for the last generation,” said Mazal Mualem, an Israeli political commentator for Al-Monitor, a Middle East news site, and the author of a biography of the Israeli leader, “Cracking the Netanyahu Code.”

Mr. Netanyahu views such occasions as being of historic importance, Ms. Mualem added, though at times in the past, many in the U.N. chamber have left the General Assembly hall when he takes the microphone, leaving him to speak to a largely empty hall.

That might matter less to Mr. Netanyahu, who is known to tailor his speeches abroad toward impressing his audience back home, burnishing his domestic credentials as a world player leagues above his competitors.

“His target audience will clearly be his home audience,” Ms. Mualem said.

His domestic audience is hardly united over his leadership. Many Israelis had demanded his resignation in the immediate aftermath of the Hamas-led assault, which caught Israel off-guard and exposed years of deep intelligence, military and policy failures, mostly on Mr. Netanyahu’s watch. Yet he has so far staved off internal and external pressures, and has chalked up a personal victory for now, at least, by surviving politically, against the odds.

“He’s come after the worst year in Israel’s history and his own history, and he just doesn’t give up,” said Mitchell Barak, an Israeli pollster and analyst who worked as an aide to Mr. Netanyahu in the 1990s.

“Bibi is the Israeli entrepreneur who doesn’t let failure stand in his way,” he said, referring to Mr. Netanyahu by his popular nickname. “He keeps moving forward.”

Israel’s strikes on Lebanon are some of the deadliest in decades.

Israel’s strikes on Lebanon on Monday amounted to one of the most intense air raids in contemporary warfare, outstripping even the bombing of Gaza during the opening days of the Israeli-Hamas war in October, war experts said.

The death count is also one of the highest daily tolls in recent global wars, and could rise because people are still believed to be trapped under the rubble in Lebanon.

War death tolls are estimates, and exact comparisons between conflicts are difficult. But the toll on Monday in Lebanon exceeded most daily tolls in Gaza over the past year and more than doubled the average daily death rate during the deadliest year of the Syrian civil war.

Here’s what else to know.

The number of targets struck by Israel

The Israeli military said it hit more than 1,600 targets in Lebanon on Monday, a number that has few, if any, precedents in 21st-century warfare, according to Emily Tripp, the director of Airwars, a British conflict monitor.


Map showing the locations of Israeli strikes in Lebanon on Monday.

It is roughly 300 more than the number of targets Israel struck during the opening three days of its Gaza offensive after the Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7 — a number that itself was considered unusually high.

During the U.S.-led air campaign against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria between 2014 and 2017, Western fighter jets struck an average of 650 targets a month across a much wider area, according to data published by the Department of Defense.

“Prior to the Gaza war, munitions deployed with this intensity and with this frequency would have been almost unheard-of,” Ms. Tripp said. “There is no comparison in terms of death toll or munitions use with previous 21st-century air campaigns of this nature, as far as we know.”

The Israeli military said Hezbollah fired 250 rockets toward Israel on Monday, most of which were intercepted by Israeli air-defense missiles or missed their targets. At least one man was reported to have been wounded by shrapnel. Since October, Hezbollah has fired more than 8,000 missiles toward Israeli positions, according to the Israeli military.

How the Lebanese death toll compares

The Lebanese health minister, Dr. Firass Abiad, said 558 people were killed on Monday in Israeli strikes — an unusually high number by the standards of contemporary war, experts said.

In Gaza last October, it took 18 days for the reported daily death toll to exceed 500. The Monday toll is about half the entire casualty count during the monthlong Israel-Hezbollah war of 2006. And it is far higher than the average daily toll during the Syrian war in 2014, the deadliest year of that decade-long conflict.


How the Lebanese government collates the death toll

Lebanon’s health ministry runs an emergency operations center that collects casualty numbers from private and state-run hospitals, collating them to create a national toll from the war, according to health officials.

These figures have historically been viewed as reliable and are cited regularly by the United Nations, which helped the ministry develop the operations center.

Hezbollah, the powerful Shiite militia backed by Iran, does not run the ministry. It is overseen by the government of Lebanon, whose members are split along sectarian and political lines.

Dr. Abiad, a former board chairman at Lebanon’s largest hospital, is generally considered apolitical and won praise and prominence for his data-driven assessments during the coronavirus pandemic. He was first proposed for the role of health minister by Saad Hariri, a Sunni former prime minister who is not allied with Hezbollah, and was formally appointed by Mr. Hariri’s successor.

The ratio of slain combatants to civilians

The Lebanese health ministry does not provide detailed breakdowns of the numbers of civilians and combatants killed. But Dr. Abiad said in a brief phone interview on Tuesday that the “overwhelming majority, if not all,” of those killed and injured on Monday were civilians.

For his statement to be true, the number of civilian men killed in Lebanon on Monday would need to overwhelmingly exceed the combined number of slain women and children. The Lebanese health ministry said that 94 women and 50 children were killed on Monday, or just over 25 percent of the total death toll, but it did not specify the number of slain male civilians.

The Israeli military has said it was targeting military operatives, weapons caches and rocket launchers, many of them hidden in civilian neighborhoods and homes.

Ms. Tripp said the number of slain women and children was “consistent with what we’ve seen in conflicts such as Iraq, but lower compared to the recent Gaza war.”

In Gaza, more than 54 percent of the roughly 34,000 people recently named as victims by the Gaza health authorities were said to be either women or boys and girls under 18. Roughly 7,000 other victims are still to be identified by the health authorities, according to the ministry’s chief statistician.

Lauren Leatherby contributed reporting.

In his final speech at the United Nations, Biden calls again for a cease-fire in Gaza.

President Biden, delivering his final speech to the United Nations on Tuesday, called for a cease-fire in Gaza, returning to one of his central demands about the war even as some White House officials have acknowledged that the goal might be difficult to obtain in the last months of his tenure.

“I put forward with Qatar and Egypt a cease-fire and hostage deal,” Mr. Biden said. “It’s been endorsed by the U.N. Security Council. Now is the time for the parties to finalize its terms.”

But months of talks have failed to yield an end to the conflict, which began on Oct. 7, when Hamas led a deadly attack on Israel. In the latest negotiations toward a truce, international mediators have aimed to narrow the gaps between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group. But Hamas has demanded that Israel fully withdraw from Gaza, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has insisted that he will not give up control of the enclave’s border with Egypt.

The prospects of ending the war in Gaza appear more bleak amid a significant escalation in recent days of a conflict between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, an ally of Hamas. Hezbollah and Israel have been exchanging cross-border missile and drone attacks since October, killing hundreds of Lebanese and forcing the evacuations of tens of thousands of civilians on both sides of the border.

Mr. Biden, who delivered a wide-ranging speech to the U.N. General Assembly that included passages about the war in Ukraine, as well as artificial intelligence, also called for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict involving the creation of a Palestinian state.

It is a long-term goal of U.S. policymakers and an objective of Palestinian leaders, but decades of efforts have yet to achieve it. Mr. Netanyahu has resisted U.S. pressure over the issue, particularly after Oct. 7. He has argued that Israel’s safety requires controlling security in the Israeli-occupied West Bank and has said this it is incompatible with a Palestinian state.

Mr. Biden also called for the return of hostages seized on Oct. 7. Around 1,200 people were killed in the attack, and more than 250 others were taken hostage. Over 100 of those were released during a weeklong cease-fire that began in November, and Israel has freed several others during military operations. But dozens more remain in captivity, and Hamas is holding the bodies of hostages who have died or have been killed since the initial attack.

“The world must not flinch from the horrors of Oct. 7,” Mr. Biden said.

The United States has supplied Israel with military and diplomatic support since the war began, and some of the president’s critics have accused him of paying insufficient attention to civilian suffering in Gaza.

More than 40,000 people have died in the enclave, the bulk of them children, women and older people, according to Gaza’s health ministry. At the same time, the enclave has been devastated by Israeli airstrikes and fighting, and almost all of the population has been forced to flee their homes.

“Innocent civilians in Gaza are also going through hell,” Mr. Biden said. “They didn’t ask for this war that Hamas started.”

Families of hostages and Gazans feel forgotten as fighting heats up in Lebanon.

After six Israeli hostages were found dead recently in Gaza, shocking the country, the families of the remaining captives hoped that the tragedy might pressure Israel to accept a cease-fire agreement to secure their release.

But now, as Israeli fighter jets swoop over Lebanon and Hezbollah fires rockets into northern Israel, the conversation in Israel has shifted toward a potential war in the north. Few believe that an agreement to free their loved ones in Gaza is imminent.

After nearly a year, roughly 100 of the more than 250 hostages held by Hamas since their Oct. 7 attacks remain in the clutches of Palestinian militants in Gaza. They include women and older people kidnapped from their homes, as well as soldiers abducted from military bases.

Israel and Hamas are deadlocked in negotiations over conditions for a truce that would free them. The Israeli authorities have declared that more than 30 hostages are already presumed dead, and their families fear that number will only rise as their loved ones languish in captivity.

With all eyes on Israel’s escalating battle with Hezbollah in Lebanon, many families now fear any hopes to save the hostages are rapidly vanishing, said Itzik Horn, whose sons Eitan, 38, and Iair, 46, are still held.

“We’ve been abandoned again and again” by the Israeli government, said Mr. Horn. “And now, the resources and attention are heading to the north.”

Both Eitan and Iair were abducted from Nir Oz, a border village that was devastated by the Hamas-led attack. Many of its roughly 400 members were either killed or kidnapped by Palestinian militants.

Eitan was visiting his brother, who held various roles in Nir Oz, including running the local pub, when the attack began. Soon afterward, Itzik, their father, lost contact with them. In November, a weeklong truce with Hamas secured the release of 105 hostages, some of whom attested to having seen the two brothers in the tunnels, said Mr. Horn.

Noam Dan, a relative of Ofer Kalderon — who was also abducted from Nir Oz — accused Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, of “cruelly neglecting” the remaining hostages in favor of the escalation. Mr. Kalderon’s children, Sahar and Erez, were released in the weeklong truce with Hamas in November.

Mr. Netanyahu has said that he is committed to securing the release of the remaining hostages. But he has repeatedly said he will not agree to a cease-fire with Hamas that compromises on what he called Israel’s fundamental security needs.

Like many close to the remaining captives, Ms. Dan said she believed Mr. Netanyahu was more worried about the future of his government than securing the release of the hostages. Some of his coalition partners have opposed recent cease-fire proposals.

“What matters to him most is his political survival, and now he’s managed to redirect the conversation close to the anniversary of his resounding failure,” she said. Ms. Dan and others blame Mr. Netanyahu’s government for failing to prevent Hamas’s surprise assault on Israel last year.

Gazans similarly fear that their plight will be shoved aside as the conflict there nears a once-unthinkable milestone: a year of almost constant war. Hundreds of thousands have crowded into an Israeli-designated “humanitarian zone” in central and southern Gaza, often living in rudimentary tent encampments where finding enough food and water can be a daily struggle.

Hundreds of thousands of Israelis have participated in demonstrations calling on the Israeli government to reach an agreement with Hamas to free the captives. The discovery of the six hostages dead in a tunnel a little over three weeks ago — executed by their Hamas guards, according to Israel — shocked the country and prompted mass protests.

But the negotiations stalled, primarily over Mr. Netanyahu’s demand to retain an Israeli military presence along Gaza’s border with Egypt. Hamas immediately rejected the condition.

In Israel, television panels full of former generals and political analysts pick apart the latest reports of strikes and counter-strikes over Israel’s northern border with Lebanon. Correspondents report from northern Israeli communities under rocket fire.

“There’s no momentum, no negotiations, not even a bit of anything. Everyone’s now busy with war in the north,” Mr. Horn said.

Verified videos show the aftermath of a strike in a neighborhood south of Beirut that appeared to hit the top floors of a building. In this one, people can be seen digging through rubble and debris strewn over the road, as well as damaged cars parked nearby.

In another graphic video verified by The New York Times, a badly burned body lies on the roof of a destroyed car, while smoke fills the air. The health ministry in Lebanon said that six people had been killed and 15 others injured in the strike.

The U.N.’s refugee agency said on Tuesday that it was “outraged” after two employees were killed by Israeli strikes in Lebanon a day earlier. Dina Darwiche, a 12-year veteran of UNHCR’s office in eastern Lebanon, was killed alongside her youngest son after an Israeli missile hit their home, the agency said. Ali Basma, who worked as a UNHCR contractor in southern Lebanon, was also killed.

Here is how the death toll from the first day of Israeli strikes in Lebanon compares to the toll from the 2006 war.


Far more people were killed in a single day on Monday in Lebanon than on any day during the devastating 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, according to the latest information released Tuesday by Lebanon’s health minister and historical data from human rights groups.

More than 1,000 Lebanese people were killed in just over a month of fighting during the 34-day war in 2006. Lebanon’s health minister, Firass Abiad, said 558 people were killed on Monday.

Monday was also the deadliest day in Lebanon since a 15-year civil war that ended in 1990.

The figures released by Lebanon’s health ministry do not distinguish between civilians and combatants. Mr. Abiad said the “overwhelming majority” killed yesterday were unarmed, and that dozens of women and children were among the dead.

The escalation of fighting in the Middle East looms over the General Assembly’s annual summit.

The United Nations General Assembly convened in New York on Tuesday against the backdrop of a world embroiled in several wars, including Israel’s expanding and increasingly deadly wars with Hamas and Hezbollah.

Despite a mounting death toll and a catastrophic humanitarian disaster, progress in peace talks remains elusive nearly one year after the Hamas-led Oct. 7 attack on Israel that set off the war in Gaza.

Violence between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese militia, has escalated over the last week as the two groups ramp up tit-for-tat strikes across the Lebanese border.

Hezbollah’s leaders have vowed to retaliate against Israeli strikes, saying the group will continue its attacks on Israel until a cease-fire deal is reached between Israel and Hamas, Hezbollah’s ally.

More than 40,000 people have been killed in Gaza during the first 11 months of the war, according to the Gazan Health Ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants. Many more have been displaced. Lebanon had remained relatively unscathed until recently, when Israel turned its attention to Hezbollah.

Israel pummeled Lebanon with airstrikes on Monday, the deadliest day in the country since at least 2006. The attack left more than 550 dead and more than 1,500 injured. The Israeli military said in a statement on Tuesday that its air force hit about 1,600 Hezbollah targets in Lebanon on Monday and was continuing to strike the country.

Israel’s escalation comes after hundreds of pagers and walkie-talkies owned by Hezbollah members exploded across Lebanon last week, killing more than 30 people, including two children, and injuring thousands. Israel did not explicitly claim responsibility, but Yoav Gallant, the Israeli defense minister, said that the “center of gravity” of Israel’s military effort, which had concentrated on eliminating Hamas in Gaza, was “moving north.”

Israel bombarded Lebanon throughout the weekend. On Friday, Israel hit Beirut, the Lebanese capital, killing several top Hezbollah commanders, including one of the group’s most senior leaders, according to Israeli officials. The attack also flattened a residential building, killing and wounding dozens of civilians.

On Sunday, Hezbollah launched more than 100 missiles, rockets and drones into Israel, striking around 30 miles inside the country’s borders in its deepest attack since last October.

António Guterres, the U.N. secretary-general, called on Monday for an immediate end to hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, with his spokesman, Stéphane Dujarric, saying in a statement that, “there is no military solution that will make either side safer.”

On Tuesday, Danny Danon, Israel’s ambassador to the U.N., said Israel was not eager to start a ground invasion in Lebanon. “We don’t want to send our boys to fight in a foreign country. But we are determined to protect the civilians of Israel. We prefer a diplomatic solution — if it’s not working, we are using other methods to show to the other side that we mean business.”

The Israeli military just claimed that an Israeli airstrike in Beirut’s southern suburbs killed Ibrahim Mohammad Qobeisi, identified as a senior Hezbollah military commander. The Israeli military said Qobeisi oversaw Hezbollah’s missile apparatus and was alongside other Hezbollah officers when Israel attacked. It wasn’t clear how Israel had confirmed his death, and Hezbollah did not immediately comment.

Lebanon’s health ministry said that six people had been killed and 15 others injured in an Israeli strike on Tuesday in Dahiya, a densely populated area south of Beirut where Hezbollah holds sway.

News Analysis

Analysts wonder about Hezbollah’s next move.

Swaths of southern Lebanon are smoldering ruins. Highways are clogged with thousands fleeing the possibility of an even bigger war between Israel and Hezbollah. As towns and villages held funerals on Tuesday, Lebanon was just beginning to grapple with the fallout from its deadliest day in decades.

A vast wave of Israeli airstrikes on Monday targeting parts of the country where Hezbollah holds sway killed hundreds of people and plunged Lebanon into a deep state of uncertainty over what Israel would do next, how deeply the militia had been damaged and what sort of response its remaining forces could muster.

Israel said it had hit more than 1,000 sites, mostly in southern and eastern Lebanon, aimed at the fighters and military infrastructure of Hezbollah, the Lebanese political party and militia it has been fighting along the Israel-Lebanon border for 11 months. At least 558 people were killed in the strikes, including 94 women and 50 children, Lebanon’s health minister told reporters on Tuesday.

That toll marked a terrible milestone for Lebanon: Monday was the country’s deadliest day since its 15-year civil war, which ended in 1990.

“The victims of a strike by the Israeli enemy on the village of Arnoun. Targeted in their homes!” read text over a photo shared on social media of three women killed in one of the strikes.

The death toll given by the health ministry did not differentiate between fighters and civilians, and the strikes overwhelmingly hit parts of the country where Hezbollah dominates, suggesting that Israel had struck another fierce blow to the group. That capped a week in which Israel also blew up electronic devices distributed by Hezbollah, killing dozens of people and injuring thousands more, and assassinated a group of its military leaders in an airstrike near Beirut.

Some experts on Hezbollah suggested that Israel’s recent attacks had largely debilitated the group, leaving its membership in disarray.

“They have no options,” said Hilal Khashan, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut and the author of a book on Hezbollah. “Israel disabled Hezbollah.”

The attacks since last Tuesday have hit both Hezbollah’s leadership and its fighters hard while severely disrupting their ability to communicate and coordinate large-scale retaliation against Israel, he said.

“Now Hezbollah is headless,” Mr. Khashan said. “Israel eliminated Hezbollah’s leadership, so the rank and file are astray.”

Other experts acknowledged the severity of the blows but were more cautious about writing the group off so quickly, citing its large weapons stockpiles and history of adapting to confront Israel’s much more high-tech military.

Hezbollah was formed with Iranian help in the 1980s to fight the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon, which ended in 2000. In the years since, it has grown into a significant political player in Lebanon and the country’s most powerful military force while sending fighters to help other Iranian-backed forces in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. Israel, the United States and other countries consider it a terrorist organization.

Hezbollah launched cross-border attacks on Israel after the start of the war in Gaza last October in solidarity with the Palestinian group Hamas, which is also backed by Iran. Israel responded by striking Hezbollah sites in Lebanon, but for many months, both sides made efforts to keep their battle focused on the border area. Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has said that the group would continue striking Israel as long as the war in Gaza continued.

Last week, Israeli leaders sharply escalated the attacks on the group, saying that removing it from the border zone was the only way that the tens of thousands of Israelis who have fled their homes in the area could return home. (About 90,000 Lebanese have fled their homes near the border, too.)

A diplomat with knowledge of the talks aimed at containing the violence, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief the news media, said Israel was demanding that Hezbollah agree to a cease-fire along the Lebanon-Israel border regardless of what happens in the war in Gaza and that it must move its forces and arms away from the frontier.

Joseph Daher, who teaches at Lausanne University in Switzerland and wrote a book about Hezbollah, said Israel had greatly increased the pressure but that Hezbollah was unlikely to agree to its demands.

“It puts pressure politically and socially on Hezbollah, but will it make Hezbollah separate the Gaza front from the Lebanese front? I don’t think so,” he said. “Nor will it get Hezbollah to withdraw its military capacities from the border area.”

So far, at least, Hezbollah does not appear to have changed its strategy of trying to avoid a total war that could cause deep damage to the movement and to Lebanon, Mr. Daher said.

“We are already in a form of war, but they don’t want a total war with Israel,” he said. “This is why they are maintaining a calculated and to some extent moderated reaction, although intensifying their attacks against Israel, as seen this weekend.”

Hezbollah has continued to strike Israel in recent days, including with long-range missiles that it says it has aimed at military bases and other sensitive sites. Many have been intercepted by Israel’s defenses and little serious damage has been reported.

Before the Gaza war, Hezbollah was widely considered one of the most heavily armed nongovernmental forces in the world.

Its military wing was believed to have between 20,000 and 30,000 members, including low-level guerrillas, experienced commanders and teams of technicians focused on rockets, missiles and drones, according to Philip Smyth, an analyst with the Atlantic Council’s counterterrorism project.

Its arsenal included more than 100,000 rockets and missiles, likely including intermediate-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and portable antiaircraft weapons. Its fighters have deployed anti-tank missiles to blow up Israeli vehicles, and Israeli officials have said it has developed precision-guided missiles that could hit military bases or critical infrastructure.

Some of Hezbollah’s senior leaders have been with the group for decades, and many of its fighters got battlefield experience during the Syrian civil war and in the fight against the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq.

How much of Hezbollah’s force and fighting ability remains after 11 months of war — and after the last week’s attacks — is an open question. The group had announced the deaths of more than 400 fighters between October and the most recent attacks.

Israel’s recent escalation injured many midlevel figures and killed military planners and a still unknown number of fighters and other operatives. Still, it has not yet prompted a large retaliation from Hezbollah, either because the group has chosen not to mount one or because it simply cannot.

In either case, Israel has robbed Hezbollah of its aura of power and competence, especially by turning its own covert communications network into a weapon against it, Mr. Smyth said.

“I don’t think anyone is under any illusions that this was a very deep attack that penetrated an opaque organization that prides itself on being opaque,” he said.

In Lebanon’s Capital, Israel’s Strikes Stoke Fears of a Full-On War

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It began with messages sent by Israel to radio stations and some cellphones in Beirut on Monday morning, warning of imminent military action.

“The I.D.F. will be moving against military bases,” an automated voice said, using the acronym for the Israel Defense Forces. “The I.D.F. don’t want to hurt you. If you are present in a building used by Hezbollah, you should leave.”

The alerts stoked alarm across the capital, the southern suburbs of which are dominated by Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group. Parents rushed to schools to pick up their children. By early afternoon, lines of cars and motorbikes snaked out from fuel stations and down streets in the city as many residents fled, hoping to find refuge in Lebanon’s northern mountains. Others wandered the mostly empty aisles of grocery stores, their carts stacked with water bottles, bags of rice and jugs of oil, uncertainty hanging in the air.

All the while, news updates flashed across people’s phone screens detailing the more than 1,000 Israeli airstrikes pounding southern Lebanon. Worn by decades of conflicts, many believed they knew what was coming.

“It’s a war,” said Daher Amdi, 34, as he sat outside a mostly empty cafe, taking slow drags from a cigarette.

Residents in Beirut, Lebanon’s capital, have grown increasingly on edge as Israel has stepped up its airstrikes against Hezbollah. With Monday’s strikes across southern Lebanon, the prospect of the escalating conflict enveloping Beirut suddenly became real.

The attacks were the deadliest in a single day in Lebanon since 2006, with hundreds of people killed and thousands injured, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry, mostly in the south of the country. And with both sides vowing to step up the conflict’s intensity, many residents, like Mr. Amdi, fear the city will soon be caught up in a full-on war.

Late Monday morning, Lebanon’s education ministry ordered the closure of some public and private schools, citing “security and military situations” that could endanger students. Outside of one school in east Beirut, dozens of secondary school students in light-blue polo shirts stood waiting to be picked up. Other, younger students hurried out of the building, many clutching their parents’ hands.

Joaelle Naser, 44, had come to pick up her three daughters, ages 6, 8 and 16. “I am scared, I’m scared,” Ms. Naser said, standing next to her two youngest, their neat ponytails held in place with fuzzy, rainbow-colored scrunchies. “I’m not prepared for if something happens.”

As the day dragged on, the extent of Israel’s deadly barrage became clearer. News outlets showed massive plumes of smoke hovering over villages across the south. People stared at their phones, watching the death toll tick up to 50, then 100, watching it double, triple — and then rise higher.

In Tariq El-Jdideh, a predominantly Sunni neighborhood in Western Beirut, Habib Bazzi, 75, sat on a metal bench, his eyes closed, his face turned up toward the sun. Originally from Bint Jbeil, along Lebanon’s southern border with Israel, Mr. Bazzi had been watching news channels on television since early Monday morning. He stepped outside, he said, to take a break from the seemingly endless destruction.

“I’m heartbroken,” Mr. Bazzi said. “What else can I say?”

In the City Center Mall just outside of Dahiya, a southern suburb of Beirut dominated by the Iran-backed Hezbollah, Mirna, 38, and her 14-year-old son roamed the aisles of the Carrefour grocery store. They pushed two large, deep blue shopping carts brimming with bags of sugar, lentils and rice.

A resident of Dahiya, Mirna, who asked to be identified only by her first name for fear of retaliation, said that most of her neighbors had fled the neighborhood for relatives’ homes in other parts of the city or in northern Lebanon. Only three days before, Dahiya was rocked by an explosion that killed several senior Hezbollah commanders — a sign, she worried, of what was to come.

“I told my husband we should leave, we should definitely leave soon,” she said.

Nearby, Lama Abdul Sater stood behind the glass counter of a watch stand in the mall, neat lines of gold and silver bands in the case reflecting the fluorescent lights above. Her 10-year-old daughter, Manesa Tarshishi, stood next to her in a bright pink-and-blue sundress, fiddling with the zipper of her pencil case.

Tucked behind the counter was Ms. Sater’s large, navy handbag, holding her wallet and two passports. Before she left for work with Manesa, her husband advised her to take them just in case they had to suddenly evacuate the city. If there was bombardment so intense that they could not leave, he told her, they should stay at the mall — it was safer, he said.

“Death is very close, I’m worried it’s very near,” Ms. Sater said in a near whisper, so Manesa would not hear. But as certain as she was that war was coming, she did not know whether it was safer to leave or stay, or where she would go if they fled the city. “Any decision I make might not be the right decision, I’m not sure about anything,” she said.

Such impossible choices are familiar to many residents here. Even before the recent hostilities, Lebanon was deep in turmoil from a yearslong political and economic crisis that began in 2019 when the economy collapsed, taking the government along with it. The country’s current caretaker government has been unable to provide the most basic services since it came to power in 2020.

Against that backdrop, most Lebanese do not have an appetite for another big war.

“It’s not the time for this war,” said Bilal Borjawi, 37. He used to run a tourism agency, he said, but over the last year his business had sputtered to a halt, with many clients worried about the security situation. Now, he said, he works as a security guard making about $300 a month — nothing compared with the $20,000 a month he used to rake in when he had his agency.

“We cannot afford more pressure than we already feel right now,” Mr. Borjawi said.

Still, as they have throughout the decades of civil strife, war, economic downturns and political crises, Lebanese in the city have endured.

At a Total Energies gas station in the Mazra neighborhood of West Beirut, drivers honked their horns, impatient to fill their tanks with fuel. Farid, a driver in his 30s who said he lives nearby, was filling up his car as his family prepared to leave for eastern Lebanon.

“My family is really panicked, they’re crying and scared,” he said, pulling crisp $20 bills from his worn, leather wallet to hand to the station attendant. “I keep trying to calm them down, saying they aren’t going to attack, they won’t bomb us here, but honestly I don’t know.”

Later Monday night, the city’s fears were realized. About 6:30 p.m., news of another strike flashed across television screens. This time, the target was in Beirut.

Ukrainian Poet and Rock Star Fights Near Front and Performs Behind It

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When the Ukrainian army hit a crisis of recruitment earlier this year amid rising losses on the battlefield, one of the most popular cultural personalities in the country stepped up and enlisted.

“At some point it became uncomfortable not to join up,” said Serhiy Zhadan, in an interview at a military base in July.

A beloved poet, novelist, lyricist and rock star in Ukraine, Mr. Zhadan, 50, joined a local National Guard brigade in his home city of Kharkiv in May and started a two-month stint in boot camp. By summer he was serving in an engineering unit on the second line of defense.

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How a Leftist Delivered Sri Lanka’s Biggest Political Jolt in Decades

Two of the front-runners in Sri Lanka’s presidential election were the sons of former presidents. A third contender, the incumbent, was the nephew and political heir of yet another president.

But when Anura Kumara Dissanayake arrived at the election commission office late Sunday to accept his victory in the vote, he cut a different figure, his sleeves rolled up and his beige shirt tucked into simple blue jeans.

His sweep to power is the biggest jolt to Sri Lanka’s political landscape in decades — an emphatic rejection of the political elite that had long ruled the island nation. He rode a wave of discontent that crested in 2022 with a popular uprising over an economic collapse and continued until the first presidential election since then.

Mr. Dissanayake, 55, offered his broad leftist coalition as the best hope for a different political culture. He cast it as an alternative for a country with an aspiring middle class that is hungry for competent economic leadership that the old political system, rife with nepotism and corruption, did not provide.

His personal story resonated: The son of a farmer and a homemaker, he worked as a tutor, sold cigarettes on trains and hawked vegetables in his village market before committing to politics. He vowed to clean up the patronage networks that had enriched a small elite while the fortunes of the majority stagnated and then plummeted as the country’s economy disintegrated.

“They think that the family power they have obtained from ruling the country for a long time will bring them victory,” Mr. Dissanayake said at one of his final rallies. “It is the people’s power that will definitely win.”

His government faces a hard road ahead. The country’s economy, while stabilized after the long fuel and food lines of two years ago, continues to suffer from deep structural flaws: too much spending, and too little taxation and revenue. And there are no easy fixes.

Austerity measures have added to the suffering of the poor, with a quarter of the country’s population of 23 million below the poverty line. Corruption and patronage won’t be easily rooted out. The ethnic prejudices that led to a 26-year civil war remain largely unaddressed.

For decades, temporary covers — from majoritarian ethnic nationalism to the economic boost from heavy spending at the end of the civil war — papered over anger at “the decadence of this political elite,” said Nirmal Dewasiri, a professor of history at the University of Colombo, in Sri Lanka’s capital.

The economic collapse two years ago, Dr. Dewasiri added, awakened the country to how deep and structural the political rot was.

Now, with Mr. Dissanayake’s victory, “it’s a very unique situation,” Dr. Dewasiri said. The two traditional political camps “have sort of broken down.”

Power in Sri Lanka long alternated between two dominant parties until one of them, the center-right United National Party, entrenched itself in the 1970s and ruled for 17 years.

The party’s consolidation of power and crackdown on dissenting voices helped lead to violent insurrections — the three-decade Tamil insurgency in the north, and repeated violent Communist insurrections in the south. New coalitions and networks formed in an effort to topple the U.N.P.

Another reality was also emerging. While established politics long relied on rural patronage, the country was developing a new urban and semi-urban middle class that was looking beyond party structures for a path to prosperity.

The Rajapaksa family stepped into this moment of churn, tapping into the nationalism of the majority Buddhist Sinhalese population to rule for 10 years under its patriarch, Mahinda Rajapaksa. When his tenure ran its course, a second Rajapaksa brother, Gotabaya, ascended to power in 2019 with a campaign intended to appeal to the urban middle class.

He pitched himself as a technocratic “nonpolitician” who was at once an insider and an outsider, a former army officer who was returning from living in the United States. As a candidate he held a series of symposiums around the country where professionals would offer solutions to problems.

But Sri Lanka’s economic crisis and the resulting protests that forced out Mr. Rajapaksa provided an opening for other political forces that had spent years organizing.

“Many of the things that we would have been speaking about in the past I think began to make sense to people — that, primarily, the problem in the country stems from the political culture, corruption, nepotism, the patronage system,” Harini Amarasuriya, an academic and activist who is a senior leader of Mr. Dissanayake’s alliance, said in an interview before the vote.

On Tuesday, Dr. Amarasuriya was appointed as Sri Lanka’s new prime minister. While she is the third woman to hold the post, women’s representation in Parliament still remains just 5 percent. The two previous female prime ministers both came from a political dynasty.

Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, the Marxist party that Mr. Dissanayake helped lead to power as part of a broader coalition, is drastically different today than when he joined it as a student leader in the 1980s.

Thousands were killed in violence between J.V.P. insurgents and Sri Lankan government forces. Mr. Dissanayake’s own family home was burned, and the family was forced to live in a relative’s kitchen. A cousin his parents had raised almost as a sibling to Mr. Dissanayake was shot dead not far from him. He kept this news from his family for a decade, he said; they kept a vigil and visited temples to pray for his return.

In Sinhalese Buddhist culture, families keep a horoscope that, based on planetary alignments, predicts their child’s future. Past leaders, particularly the Rajapaksas, emphasized astrology in political life. When Mr. Dissanayake was asked in a recent interview whether his horoscope had predicted his rise, he was blunt.

“In 1989, our house was burned. My horoscope got burned with it, and I haven’t made a new horoscope since then. I don’t believe in horoscopes,” he said. “My parents didn’t have big dreams — their world wasn’t that big. The biggest hope my mother had for me was the teaching profession. That was their world.”

The J.V.P. spent decades trying to distance itself from the violence and radical communism of its past. With the stigma not yet fully gone, Mr. Dissanayake ran under the name of his coalition, the National People’s Power. Though the coalition retained the J.V.P. at its core, it brought in academics and activists like Dr. Amarasuriya who had none of the old political baggage and could better articulate an alternative vision.

The alliance vowed to change the political culture within existing frameworks. It reached out to young people and women who had long been on the political margins. It ensured “a feminist sensitivity” by putting female voices in its leadership and mobilizing female voters, Dr. Amarasuriya said.

Two years before, it had been young people and women who spilled into the streets as the economy cratered.

“Although the husband might bring the money, the women felt the brunt more because they run the kitchen,” said Hiranthi Boralessa, 59, a teacher in the southern district of Galle.

She had been married to a J.V.P. leader for over three decades but had only now gotten directly involved in political organizing.

Her husband, Dharmawardhana Munasinghe, 69, a retired teacher, was part of the earliest leadership of the J.V.P. His detention at an army camp, and his cat-and-mouse game with the authorities for nearly a decade after, complicated their young romance. Their wedding had to wait for a decade, and it eventually happened at a small, hushed ceremony in Colombo.

Mr. Munasinghe said that in all the decades after the party distanced itself from the violence, it had remained a marginal player in Galle. But he said the landscape changed entirely after the 2022 protest movement, with the local cells of the two main parties discredited over the economic collapse and hated for years of impunity for local abuses.

He said that Mr. Dissanayake’s pragmatism and discipline had achieved what older generations of leftist leaders could not.

“I’m not a wizard or a magician — I am a normal citizen of this country,” Mr. Dissanayake said on Monday after taking the oath of office in a low-key ceremony in Colombo. “My main task now is to absorb my skills and collect my knowledge to lead this country. It is my responsibility to be a part of that collective intervention.”

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As Lebanon Reels From Israeli Attacks, the Future Is Murky for a Wounded Hezbollah

News Analysis

As Lebanon Reels From Israeli Attacks, the Future Is Murky for a Wounded Hezbollah

Some experts said that Israel’s onslaught had left Hezbollah in disarray. Others noted its large weapons stockpiles and history of adapting to battle Israel’s much more high-tech military.

Ben Hubbard

Reporting from Istanbul

Swaths of southern Lebanon are smoldering ruins. Highways are clogged with thousands fleeing the possibility of an even bigger war between Israel and Hezbollah. As towns and villages held funerals on Tuesday, Lebanon was just beginning to grapple with the fallout from its deadliest day in decades.

A vast wave of Israeli airstrikes on Monday targeting parts of the country where Hezbollah holds sway killed hundreds of people and plunged Lebanon into a deep state of uncertainty over what Israel would do next, how deeply the militia had been damaged and what sort of response its remaining forces could muster.

Israel said it had hit more than 1,000 sites, mostly in southern and eastern Lebanon, aimed at the fighters and military infrastructure of Hezbollah, the Lebanese political party and militia it has been fighting along the Israel-Lebanon border for 11 months. At least 558 people were killed in the strikes, including 94 women and 50 children, Lebanon’s health minister told reporters on Tuesday.

That toll marked a terrible milestone for Lebanon: Monday was the country’s deadliest day since its 15-year civil war, which ended in 1990.

“The victims of a strike by the Israeli enemy on the village of Arnoun. Targeted in their homes!” read text over a photo shared on social media of three women killed in one of the strikes.

The death toll given by the health ministry did not differentiate between fighters and civilians, and the strikes overwhelmingly hit parts of the country where Hezbollah dominates, suggesting that Israel had struck another fierce blow to the group. That capped a week in which Israel also blew up electronic devices distributed by Hezbollah, killing dozens of people and injuring thousands more, and assassinated a group of its military leaders in an airstrike near Beirut.

Some experts on Hezbollah suggested that Israel’s recent attacks had largely debilitated the group, leaving its membership in disarray.

“They have no options,” said Hilal Khashan, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut and the author of a book on Hezbollah. “Israel disabled Hezbollah.”

The attacks since last Tuesday have hit both Hezbollah’s leadership and its fighters hard while severely disrupting their ability to communicate and coordinate large-scale retaliation against Israel, he said.

“Now Hezbollah is headless,” Mr. Khashan said. “Israel eliminated Hezbollah’s leadership, so the rank and file are astray.”

Other experts acknowledged the severity of the blows but were more cautious about writing the group off so quickly, citing its large weapons stockpiles and history of adapting to confront Israel’s much more high-tech military.

Hezbollah was formed with Iranian help in the 1980s to fight the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon, which ended in 2000. In the years since, it has grown into a significant political player in Lebanon and the country’s most powerful military force while sending fighters to help other Iranian-backed forces in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. Israel, the United States and other countries consider it a terrorist organization.

Hezbollah launched cross-border attacks on Israel after the start of the war in Gaza last October in solidarity with the Palestinian group Hamas, which is also backed by Iran. Israel responded by striking Hezbollah sites in Lebanon, but for many months, both sides made efforts to keep their battle focused on the border area. Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has said that the group would continue striking Israel as long as the war in Gaza continued.

Last week, Israeli leaders sharply escalated the attacks on the group, saying that removing it from the border zone was the only way that the tens of thousands of Israelis who have fled their homes in the area could return home. (About 90,000 Lebanese have fled their homes near the border, too.)

A diplomat with knowledge of the talks aimed at containing the violence, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief the news media, said Israel was demanding that Hezbollah agree to a cease-fire along the Lebanon-Israel border regardless of what happens in the war in Gaza and that it must move its forces and arms away from the frontier.

Joseph Daher, who teaches at Lausanne University in Switzerland and wrote a book about Hezbollah, said Israel had greatly increased the pressure but that Hezbollah was unlikely to agree to its demands.

“It puts pressure politically and socially on Hezbollah, but will it make Hezbollah separate the Gaza front from the Lebanese front? I don’t think so,” he said. “Nor will it get Hezbollah to withdraw its military capacities from the border area.”

So far, at least, Hezbollah does not appear to have changed its strategy of trying to avoid a total war that could cause deep damage to the movement and to Lebanon, Mr. Daher said.

“We are already in a form of war, but they don’t want a total war with Israel,” he said. “This is why they are maintaining a calculated and to some extent moderated reaction, although intensifying their attacks against Israel, as seen this weekend.”

Hezbollah has continued to strike Israel in recent days, including with long-range missiles that it says it has aimed at military bases and other sensitive sites. Many have been intercepted by Israel’s defenses and little serious damage has been reported.

Before the Gaza war, Hezbollah was widely considered one of the most heavily armed nongovernmental forces in the world.

Its military wing was believed to have between 20,000 and 30,000 members, including low-level guerrillas, experienced commanders and teams of technicians focused on rockets, missiles and drones, according to Philip Smyth, an analyst with the Atlantic Council’s counterterrorism project.

Its arsenal included more than 100,000 rockets and missiles, likely including intermediate-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and portable antiaircraft weapons. Its fighters have deployed anti-tank missiles to blow up Israeli vehicles, and Israeli officials have said it has developed precision-guided missiles that could hit military bases or critical infrastructure.

Some of Hezbollah’s senior leaders have been with the group for decades, and many of its fighters got battlefield experience during the Syrian civil war and in the fight against the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq.

How much of Hezbollah’s force and fighting ability remains after 11 months of war — and after the last week’s attacks — is an open question. The group had announced the deaths of more than 400 fighters between October and the most recent attacks.

Israel’s recent escalation injured many midlevel figures and killed military planners and a still unknown number of fighters and other operatives. Still, it has not yet prompted a large retaliation from Hezbollah, either because the group has chosen not to mount one or because it simply cannot.

In either case, Israel has robbed Hezbollah of its aura of power and competence, especially by turning its own covert communications network into a weapon against it, Mr. Smyth said.

“I don’t think anyone is under any illusions that this was a very deep attack that penetrated an opaque organization that prides itself on being opaque,” he said.