Transactional partners: How 200-year distrust shapes Russia’s response to the Iran conflict
In March 2026, as the smoke cleared over Tehran following the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran’s leadership, Russia’s response was strikingly restrained. Despite a 20-year strategic partnership treaty signed with Tehran just last year, Moscow limited its reaction to condemnation and calls for diplomacy.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that Russia had received no request from Iran for military assistance. “There were no requests from Iran in this case,” Peskov told reporters on March 5th.
For analysts who study the relationship between Moscow and Tehran, the moment felt familiar. “The relationship has always been transactional,” said Ksenia Svetlova, executive director of the Regional Organization for Peace, Economy and Security (ROPES) and an associate fellow at Chatham House. “Russia does what serves its own interests.”
While Iran and Russia have moved closer in recent years — particularly after Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine — experts say the partnership has never resembled a true alliance. Instead, they say, it reflects a long history of cooperation shaped by convenience, rivalry and shifting geopolitical needs.
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The Shadow of Turkmenchay
The uneasy relationship between the two powers stretches back nearly two centuries. In 1828, the Treaty of Turkmenchay forced Persia to cede large parts of the Caucasus to the Russian Empire after a military defeat. The treaty remains one of the most painful symbols of foreign domination in Iranian political memory.
In the twentieth century, Russia’s relationship with Iran shifted dramatically. Before the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Moscow maintained relatively stable ties with Iran under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. “It actually had good relations with the Shah who visited Moscow after World War II,” Svetlova said.
“But Communist Russia was very suspicious of Islamist Iran after the 1979 revolution,” said Svetlova. It was a mutual distrust; Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini denounced both Cold War superpowers, calling the United States the “Great Satan” and the Soviet Union the “Lesser Satan.”
Even during the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, the Soviet Union maintained ties with Tehran while simultaneously supplying weapons to Iraq. “The Soviet Union was very suspicious of Islamist Iran,” Svetlova said. “Even after the revolution, the relationship could not really be considered an alliance.”
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The Drone Marriage
In recent years, however, geopolitical pressures pushed the two countries closer together. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 created new military cooperation between Moscow and Tehran.
Though Russia and Iran have not shared a land border since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, they remain “neighbors” via the Caspian Sea. This “blue border” became a vital artery in 2022 when Iran supplied the Shahed-series drones used in Ukraine, that Russia has used extensively in attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.
Vice Adm. Robert S. Harward, a retired Navy SEAL and former deputy commander of U.S. Central Command, said the partnership has had direct consequences on the battlefield. “Sadly, the world is just now getting a taste of Iranian drones. But there’s one group that already knows them well, the Christians in Ukraine,” Harward said. “Close to 600 Ukrainian churches have been destroyed by Russian attacks, including from the Iranian Shahed drones.”
Carrie Filipetti, executive director of the Vandenberg Coalition and a former deputy assistant secretary of state, argued that Russia’s continued use of Iranian drones against Ukrainian targets underscores the depth of the military relationship, while its calls for restraint in the current conflict highlight a fundamental contradiction. “If Russia were serious about peace, we would see a ceasefire with Ukraine months ago,” she said. “Yet, Putin continues to attack Ukrainian cities, churches and civilians with Iranian drones day after day.”
And yet, Russia’s dependence on Iranian drones during the early stages of the Ukraine war has also diminished as Moscow built its own production capacity. A report cited by the Washington Post found that Russia has “transitioned from importing Iranian Shahed drones to mass-manufacturing them” under the name Geran-2.
Limits and Intelligence
War Secretary Pete Hegseth said Tuesday that Russia “should not be involved” in the escalating conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran, as reports that Russia has provided information that could help Iran identify U.S. military assets in the Middle East emerged. Moscow has not publicly confirmed the claims.
“I believe Russia is providing Iran intelligence to more effectively target Americans, our allies and partners in the CENTCOM region,” said Lt. Gen. Richard Y. Newton III, a retired Air Force officer who served as assistant vice chief of staff of the U.S. Air Force. “It’s absolutely clear Russia is not our friend.”
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“They are doing for the Iranians without spending money, spending troops or spending equipment,” Svetlova added. “They share knowledge. They supplied the Iranians with a target list, basically, through their satellites – American targets, but also air targets in the Gulf and Iraq.”
Harward argued that confronting this growing cooperation requires a broader strategy. “If we want to break the threat of the increasingly dangerous Russian-Iranian alliance, we need to fully decimate Iran’s capabilities to threaten our allies and the United States – and we need to continue to support Ukraine and get Europeans to do their part,” he said.
Filipetti remains skeptical of Moscow’s role as a mediator. “The idea that Russia would call on the U.S. and Israel to cease military operations against the regime in Iran and suggest that we should negotiate is absurd,” Filipetti said.
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Although Russia is falling short of helping Iran in a straightforward military way, experts say the cooperation in the world of intelligence has been profound.
Ultimately, Newton argued that Russia’s actions should be viewed through the lens of President Vladimir Putin’s broader geopolitical goals. “Putin only does what serves Putin, and right now escalating the war in the Middle East and driving up oil prices only serves his interests so he can continue to fund his war machine against Ukraine,” he said.
US offers $10M reward for info on Iran’s new supreme leader, top IRGC officials
The State Department is offering a $10 million reward for information on Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and several senior officials linked to the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Officials said the reward, part of the State Department’s Rewards for Justice program, is an effort to gather intelligence on the IRGC and its leadership, which Washington accuses of orchestrating attacks against Americans and supporting terrorism.
The reward targets Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with several key figures inside Iran’s ruling security apparatus.
The department said it is also seeking information about Ali Asghar Hejazi, deputy chief of staff for the Supreme Leader’s Office, and Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.
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The program also lists several senior figures linked to Iran’s security and intelligence structure, including Yahya Rahim Safavi, a top military adviser to the supreme leader, Esmail Khatib, Iran’s minister of intelligence, and Eskandar Momeni, the country’s interior minister.
“The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), part of Iran’s official military, plays a central role in Iran’s use of terrorism as a key tool of Iranian statecraft,” the State Department said.
“In addition, the IRGC has created, supported, and directed other terrorist groups. The IRGC is responsible for numerous attacks targeting Americans and U.S. facilities, including those that have killed U.S. citizens,” the department added.
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The agency said the IRGC has also expanded its influence far beyond military operations since its founding after the 1979 Iranian Revolution, becoming deeply embedded in the country’s political and economic system.
“Since its founding in 1979, the IRGC has gained a substantial role in executing Iran’s foreign policy,” the department said. “The group now wields control over vast segments of Iran’s economy and is influential in Iranian domestic politics.”
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The Rewards for Justice program allows the U.S. government to offer financial rewards for information that helps disrupt terrorist networks or identify individuals involved in attacks against Americans.
The State Department said individuals who provide credible information may be eligible for rewards of up to $10 million.
Iran using AI to control global narrative as regime can’t win on the battlefield, former security chief warns
The Iranian regime is using artificial intelligence to generate a false “global narrative” that it is winning the war with the U.S., Bridget Bean, the former acting director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), told Fox News on Friday.
“They can’t win on the battlefield, so they’re going to try and win through AI and through a global narrative,” Bean said on “The Ingraham Angle.”
“And their old playbook was very discernible – funny faces or out-of-time lip sync – but they’ve gotten very good on some of their AI manipulation. And we’ve seen that.”
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Bean said those scrolling quickly on their phones might not notice that something is off about the regime’s AI-generated content and urged people to be “careful about what’s happening.”
“Their goal is to weaken our will, our resolve and to really push a narrative that is not true,” she added.
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The New York Post reported Thursday that Iran published AI-altered images of the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, which comes on the heels of reports that he is too injured to make a public appearance.
Shayan Sardarizadeh, a senior journalist at BBC Verify, told the outlet that photos recently published by Iranian state media and on Khamenei’s X account had been edited using online AI tools.
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Bean said the regime is “taking real pictures, real videos and adding just a touch of AI” so that it “passes the gut test.”
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“What we’re seeing is not surprising. They have played this exact same playbook since June of 2025. During the 12-day war, they did this, and it really was the first time for a global conflict where we saw AI-generated disinformation outpace traditional propaganda.”
Trump says US ‘obliterated’ military targets in strike on key Iranian oil hub: ‘Powerful bombing raids’
President Donald Trump said Friday that the U.S. had carried out a bombing raid on Iran’s Kharg Island, a strategically vital island in the Persian Gulf that serves as the country’s largest oil terminal and a crucial hub for its crude exports.
“Moments ago, at my direction, the United States Central Command executed one of the most powerful bombing raids in the history of the Middle East, and totally obliterated every MILITARY target in Iran’s crown jewel, Kharg Island,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
The island, located roughly 35 miles off Iran’s Bushehr province in the country’s southwest, is about the size of New York City’s Central Park but carries huge importance for Iran’s economy.
It has a loading capacity of about 7 million barrels per day, and roughly 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports pass through it. Most of those exports are shipped to China and India, underscoring the island’s importance not only to Iran’s energy trade but also to broader global oil markets.
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That makes Kharg Island one of Iran’s most sensitive and strategically important pieces of infrastructure. Any military action there could have consequences well beyond Iran, raising the risk of disruptions to crude flows, shipping traffic and energy prices across the region.
Trump said the U.S. had deliberately avoided targeting the island’s oil infrastructure, while warning that could change if Iran moved to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
“Our Weapons are the most powerful and sophisticated that the World has ever known but, for reasons of decency, I have chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure on the Island. However, should Iran, or anyone else, do anything to interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision,” Trump added.
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The latest revelation comes as the widening conflict in the Middle East rattles global energy markets and raises fresh fears about the security of the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil choke point.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage between Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Oman, carries roughly 20 million barrels of oil a day and about one-fifth of the global supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG). When conflict flares in the region, even the threat of disruption can rattle markets because so much of the world’s energy moves through that single corridor.
That threat is already rippling through energy markets.
This week, benchmark oil prices punched back above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022, underscoring how quickly geopolitical shocks can ripple through the energy complex.
That jump is showing up at the pump. As oil prices climb, gasoline and diesel prices are rising fast — especially diesel, which can move quickly because it’s tied closely to freight and industrial demand.
On Friday, the national average for regular gasoline rose to about $3.63 a gallon, according to AAA. Diesel prices have also jumped, with the national average up $1.23 to $4.89 a gallon.
As energy costs accelerate, the White House is weighing steps to safeguard commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and leaning on emergency stockpiles to cushion the blow.
Before boarding Air Force One for Mar-a-Lago late Friday, Trump told reporters the U.S. Navy may start escorting tankers through the Strait “very soon.”
Asked about the risk of disruptions, Trump said Monday evening he would keep the route open and threatened retaliation if Iran tried to interfere.
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“I will not allow a terrorist regime to hold the world hostage and attempt to stop the globe’s oil supply. And if Iran does anything to do that, they’ll get hit at a much, much harder level,” Trump said during a news conference in Florida.
“In the long run, oil supplies will be dramatically more secure without the threat of Iranian ships, drones, missiles,” he added.
Iranian soccer team says ‘no one can exclude’ squad from 2026 World Cup amid participation doubts
The Iranian men’s national soccer team has pushed back on speculation over the team’s status for the 2026 World Cup, which is largely taking place in the U.S., releasing a statement Thursday saying that “no one can exclude” the squad from competing.
The statement posted on social media follows remarks from Iran’s sports minister casting doubt on the team’s participation and President Donald Trump’s earlier remarks that the team would be welcome to compete but that it might not be “appropriate” as the conflict in the Middle East continues.
“The World Cup is a historic and international event, and its governing body is FIFA — not any individual country. Iran’s national team, with strength and a series of decisive victories achieved by the brave sons of Iran, was among the first teams to qualify for this major tournament,” the statement posted to Instagram stories said.
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“Certainly, no one can exclude Iran’s national team from the World Cup; the only country that could be excluded is one that merely carries the title of ‘host’ yet lacks the ability to provide security for the teams participating in this global event.”
Iran is scheduled to play in Inglewood, California, against New Zealand June 15 and Belgium June 21 before finishing group play against Egypt in Seattle June 26. The U.S. is hosting the tournament with Canada and Mexico from June 11 to July 19.
Trump was indifferent last week when asked about Iran’s participation in the World Cup, telling Politico, “I really don’t care.”
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But earlier this week, FIFA President Gianni Infantino said Trump “reiterated” to him in their recent talks that Iran’s soccer team would be “welcome to compete” in the U.S.
“We also spoke about the current situation in Iran, and the fact that the Iranian team has qualified to participate in the FIFA World Cup 2026. During the discussions, President Trump reiterated that the Iranian team is, of course, welcome to compete in the tournament in the United States,” Infantino said in a post shared on Instagram.
“We all need an event like the FIFA World Cup to bring people together now more than ever, and I sincerely thank the President of the United States for his support, as it shows once again that Football Unites the World.”
Iran’s sports minister claimed later that a squad could not be sent to the World Cup.
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“Considering that this corrupt regime has assassinated our leader, under no circumstances can we participate in the World Cup,” Sports Minister Ahmad Donyamali told state television, via Reuters.
Trump doubled down in a Truth Social post Thursday that Iran would be “welcome” to compete in the World Cup, but he added, “I really don’t believe it is appropriate that they be there, for their own life and safety.”
Iran qualified for its fourth straight World Cup as the 20th-ranked team in the world by FIFA. The Iranian federation was unable to attend meetings in Atlanta last week to help teams prepare for the 48-nation tournament but is due to attend FIFA’s annual congress in Canada next month.
Hegseth announces Pentagon probe into deadly strike on Iranian school
The Pentagon said Friday it has opened a formal command investigation into the Feb. 28 strike in Minab, Iran, where Iranian regime officials claim dozens of children were killed in a strike at a school beside a military compound.
Questions continue to mount about possible U.S. involvement in the strike, the intelligence used before it and whether Iran placed military assets near civilians to shield them or weaponize potential casualties.
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said at a Pentagon briefing that U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has appointed a senior officer from outside the command to lead the review.
“CENTCOM has designated an investigating officer to complete a command investigation,” Hegseth said, noting that the investigator is a general officer. “The command investigation will take as long as necessary to address all the matters surrounding this incident.”
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“There’s only one entity in this conflict, between us and Iran, that never targets civilians, literally never target civilians,” he said, defending U.S. targeting procedures while the investigation unfolds. “We will investigate. We’ll get to the truth and we’ll share it when we have it.”
The strike has drawn scrutiny as the investigation continues without answers.
If U.S. forces carried out the attack, it would raise questions about how American military planners assess civilian risk in densely populated areas and whether safeguards designed to prevent unintended casualties functioned as intended in the opening phase of a high-intensity conflict.
CENTCOM, the military department tasked with overseeing the U.S. operation in Iran and all Middle East operations, has declined to confirm whether American forces launched the missile, saying only that “it would be inappropriate to comment given the incident is under investigation.”
Iranian-American journalist Banafsheh Zand, who has been following the reporting in Iran, pointed to the school that has been there for more than a decade, reported affiliation with Iran’s military.
“The school itself was for the children of the (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) Navy, and it speaks volumes to where the place was and how they use civilian shields,” she said.
The use of human shields is against international humanitarian law.
While the regime claims between 168 fatalities and 180 fatalities, mostly girls between the ages of 7 and 12, along with teachers and parents from the school, Zand told Fox News Digital that there has been no independent confirmation of the reported casualty figures.
“There is no confirmation on the number of people, from anyone other than regime sources,” she said. “Some people in the area said it was 65 boys. Sixty-five boys? What are 65 boys doing in a girls’ school at 10:30 on a Saturday morning?”
Addressing satellite images that appear to show newly dug graves, Zand added: “The number of graves are not in keeping with the number of people that they claim is dead. It doesn’t match up.”
The U.S. government has not confirmed the death toll.
Preliminary findings from U.S. officials suggest the strike was likely carried out by American forces, The New York Times reported Wednesday, though the investigation remains ongoing.
In response to the Times’ reporting, Central Command reiterated to Fox News Digital that the investigation is ongoing.
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Retired Vice Adm. Kevin Donegan, who previously commanded U.S. Naval Forces Central Command and the U.S. 5th Fleet, cautioned against getting ahead of the full review and said U.S. targeting doctrine is designed to prevent civilian tragedies, including legal review and collateral damage assessments before a strike is approved.
“We actually have judge advocates that sit there and help us through the process of targeting,” Donegan told Fox News Digital.
But even precision-guided weapons do not eliminate uncertainty.
“War isn’t precise,” Donegan said. “Mistakes can be made, and they can happen anywhere in the chain of events.”
Raytheon, the manufacturer of the Tomahawk missile, could not be reached for comment.
Wes Bryant, the Pentagon’s former chief of civilian harm assessments, said his office, the Civilian Protection Center of Excellence, was tasked with advising commanders on targeting and ways to mitigate civilian harm but had been severely curtailed over the past year.
Bryant said that taken together, the available evidence strongly suggests U.S. involvement.
“All evidence, at this point, points to a U.S. strike,” Bryant told Fox News Digital.
If U.S. forces conducted the strike, Bryant said the more plausible explanation would involve a failure in target identification or civilian risk assessment.
“These munitions have a very small circular probable,” Bryant said. “If it missed, it would have been within a few meters.”
Satellite imagery and reporting from Iranian officials indicate the Shajareh Tayyebeh primary school sat roughly 600 meters from the adjacent Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps naval facility in Minab, Iran, underscoring how closely civilian and military infrastructure were positioned.
“I’m leaning more toward that this is complete misidentification,” from the U.S., he said, arguing that the likely issue would be a failure to properly vet or update targeting information rather than a random malfunction.
White House spokesperson Anna Kelly told Fox News Digital, “This investigation is ongoing. As we have said, unlike the terrorist Iranian regime, the United States does not target civilians.”
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Possible Tomahawk missile and strike location
Open-source video analysis and reported missile remnants have fueled speculation that the munition resembled a U.S. Tomahawk cruise missile — a weapon Iran does not operate.
The Tomahawk is fielded by the U.S. and a limited number of close allies, including the United Kingdom and Australia, neither of which has been firing missiles in the conflict.
The Tomahawk is a long-range, precision-guided cruise missile capable of striking targets hundreds of miles away and typically carrying a high-explosive warhead.
Independent open-source investigators, including Bellingcat, a Netherlands-based investigative journalism group specializing in open-source analysis, have examined video and satellite imagery from the area and reported that multiple strikes hit the compound within a short time window.
However, commentators on social media have their own theories.
“The wing-to-body ratio of the munition in question matches an Iranian Kh-55–derived Land Attack Cruise Missile,” said podcast host and veteran Matt Tardio on X. “So what could have caused this? Simply put, GPS jamming of an Iranian KH-55. The USA and Israel were, and continue to actively jam the Iranian airspace.”
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Former National Security Council official Javed Ali, now a professor at the Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy, told Fox News Digital the central question is the quality of intelligence that informed the strike decision.
“How solid was the intelligence picture on that facility?” Ali said. “How good was the intelligence that went into what’s called a target package?”
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Ali, who previously worked on targeting analysis at the Defense Intelligence Agency, said military strikes are typically built from multiple streams of intelligence — human, technical, geospatial and open source — designed to provide high confidence that a structure is a legitimate military objective.
“Clearly something went wrong,” Ali said.
Civilian proximity raises targeting questions
Bryant said the Pentagon’s Civilian Protection Center of Excellence and broader civilian harm mitigation enterprise were scaled back in 2025, reducing the number of personnel available to conduct investigations into civilian harm.
The center was established by Congress to help the military minimize harm to civilians in conflict, but reporting shows its dedicated staff were folded into broader bureaucratic units or removed as part of a departmental reorganization.
Its teams were designed to work with commanders on target planning to make sure targets were active military sites and advise on the potential for civilian harm, according to Bryant.
The Pentagon has not publicly detailed the current status or staffing of the office, nor confirmed whether the office is involved in the ongoing Minab, Iran, school investigation.
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An open source intelligence expert and former intel official, who requested anonymity, told Fox News Digital the structure resembles the other military buildings that were targeted in the strike, which could help explain how an intelligence misreading might occur and lead analysts to believe the site was another military facility within the compound.
Analysts say when civilian casualties occur during precision strikes, the explanations generally fall into three categories: intelligence failure, technical malfunction or human error.
Amos Yadlin, a former head of Israeli military intelligence, told Fox News Digital incorrect or outdated intelligence could lead to misidentification, while a GPS-guided munition could malfunction or be disrupted. Human error — such as incorrect coordinate entry — is another possibility.
If an investigation ultimately finds negligence or a breakdown in targeting procedures, the U.S. military has a precedent for imposing consequences.
Bryant pointed to the 2015 U.S. strike on a hospital in Kunduz, Afghanistan, that killed dozens of patients and medical staff at a facility operated by Doctors Without Borders, the international humanitarian medical charity.
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A U.S. military investigation later concluded that airstrike was “a tragic and avoidable accident” caused primarily by human error and procedural failures, with the medical facility mistakenly identified as a combat target.
“In that case, a couple of different commanders were removed,” Bryant said, noting that accountability can range from administrative measures to the revocation of certifications, depending on findings.
Mamdani backs out of CBS interview after network chief Bari Weiss boosted criticism of him on X: report
Democratic New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani reportedly has backed out of an interview with CBS News over a social media post by the network’s editor-in-chief Bari Weiss.
Vanity Fair reported Thursday that Mamdani was having discussions to sit down with Robert Costa on “CBS Sunday Morning” but had been “averse” to appearing on the Weiss-run network after critical coverage he received from her digital outlet, The Free Press.
However, sources told the magazine Weiss’ apparent endorsement of fiery remarks made Feb. 28 by Iranian journalist, activist and new CBS News contributor Masih Alinejad, who slammed the mayor’s condemnation of Operation Epic Fury against the Iranian regime, was the final straw.
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“Mr. Mamdani, you are more than welcome to come to one of my safe houses,” Alinejad said during CBS News’ breaking news coverage of the conflict.
“Where were you when they sent killers here in New York City? You were crying for your aunt because she has stopped using the subway for simply — in an illusionist statement you made saying she didn’t feel safe, for wearing a hijab. Really? I stopped using subways because of the would-be assassins being sent to beautiful New York City by the Islamic Republic,” Alinejad added, before urging Mamdani to shift his “hatred” away from President Donald Trump.
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Weiss reacted to her comments using a fire emoji, something a source told Vanity Fair was the “nail in the coffin” for a Mamdani interview.
“Bari and her people have a clear ax to grind with him,” a former CBS producer told Vanity Fair. “It’s not just Zohran. It’s really hard now to get people to come on CBS.”
Neither CBS News nor Mamdani’s office responded to Fox News Digital’s requests for comment.
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Iran deploys explosive ‘suicide skiffs’ disguised as fishing boats in Strait of Hormuz
Iran is deploying explosive-laden drone boats disguised as wooden fishing vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, a defense expert has warned — a move that signals a new phase of hybrid maritime warfare in one of the world’s most critical shipping lanes.
Cameron Chell, CEO of drone technology firm Draganfly, spoke after the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) confirmed that a Marshall Islands–flagged oil tanker was struck March 1 by an Iranian unmanned surface vehicle north of Muscat, Oman.
“UKMTO has received confirmation that the vessel was attacked by an uncrewed surface vehicle (USV), and that the crew has been evacuated to shore,” UKMTO said in a threat assessment.
Reports also indicated that two additional oil tankers were hit March 11 by remote-controlled explosive boats in the Gulf, as Iran intensified attacks on foreign vessels following the start of the U.S. Operation Epic Fury against the regime on Feb. 28.
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The use of so-called “suicide skiffs” represents a growing asymmetric threat in the narrow, 21-mile-wide Strait, Chell warned, while highlighting the technological capabilities behind these attacks.
“The Iranians probably have use of radio remote control, line of sight, frequency hopping, or encrypted radio communication between the skiffs and the Hormuz shoreline,” Chell told Fox News Digital.
“These can be jammed and tracked, but when there’s 50 of these boats, it’s hard to try to find them all along this shoreline or to find a 20-foot wooden fishing boat that is laden with explosives.
“They can have one person controlling a swarm of 10 boats,” he said before describing how there “could also be autonomous swarming where they might have 10 boats that can act with a large level of independence, because they’re pre-programmed.”
“The boats would be used to ram into targets and explode,” Chell clarified.
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Chell’s comments followed a March 12 Reuters report stating that six vessels had been attacked in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.
Sources said that Iran had also deployed about a dozen mines, complicating efforts to maintain any traffic through the critical waterway.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Sky News Thursday that the U.S. Navy, potentially alongside an international coalition, would escort ships when militarily feasible.
U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey also said discussions were underway with European counterparts stressing the global economic stakes tied to the strait. Chell, however, questioned current defensive readiness.
“The drone defense fleets that the U.S. Navy would not have been set up to take these suicide skiffs out,” Chell said.
“The U.S. would be using manned aircraft in order to take them out, which are fantastic at taking out a large target, but inefficient in taking out 50 boats at one time that are an average of 25 or 30 feet in size, laden with explosives.
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“Given the Strait’s geography, it would require patrolling by many aircraft and would require pervasive surveillance over the area, a rapid response to any activity that’s happening,” he said.
As Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed to keep the Strait closed as leverage against the U.S. and Israel, oil prices continue to surge, with Chell also highlighting the geographic advantage Iran holds.
“The geographic layout of the Strait lends itself very well to relatively unsophisticated suicide skiffs, unmanned surface vehicles or USVs,” he warned before describing how the area “lends itself to this low-cost, automatic, asymmetric warfare.”
“The Iranians can disguise them as fishing boats and can be anywhere from 12 to 30 feet, and a boat could be of any description,” Chell said.
“These skiffs are equipped with basic remote control capabilities that may or may not be using GPS waypoints or manual remote control.”
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“The skiffs are not autonomous, because the distance across the Strait is so short, and it’s very flat across this waterway, the communication signal could be carried for quite some time via a line of sight,” he added.
“They could literally have hundreds out there at a time, because they’re also so inexpensive to defend against,” Chell said.