Boris Johnson has said Sue Gray clung on to her job for so long because she “knows where the bodies are buried”.

But the ex-prime minister said Sir Keir Starmer’s former chief of staff was “always a goner” after a member of her family took donations from Lord Alli.

He told LBC that he always knew Ms Gray would have to resign eventually, because her son had taken money from the peer to help run his campaign for Parliament.

Liam Conlan, Ms Gray’s son, is now Labour MP for Beckenham and Penge after receiving a £10,000 donation from Lord Alli towards his campaign.

While she was a civil servant, Ms Gray wrote the damning report into Downing Street lockdown parties, prompting the downfall of Mr Johnson.

It was announced on Sunday that Ms Gray had been removed as chief of staff and replaced with her rival, Morgan McSweeney.

‘Propriety and ethics stuff’

Mr Johnson said: “The interesting thing about Sue is that she spent a long time in the heart of Whitehall, kind of clearing up all the sort-of propriety and ethics stuff.

“So I think she knows where the bodies are buried, and so I think she’s been able to parlay that very useful knowledge into the position she had held until just now.”

He added: “I thought that it was Chronicle of a Death Foretold, really, because I think that this … she was always a goner.

“I don’t want to be seen to be dancing on anybody’s grave – but as soon as it became clear that her son had received money for his campaign – he’s a Labour MP now – from a guy called Waheed Alli, who then got a pass to enter Number 10.”

He added: “And I thought, even if she didn’t know about the suits, even if she didn’t know about the designer spectacles and whatever it was, that was going to be a tough one for her. So I thought this was always going to happen”.

Mr Johnson also claimed she “cut up rough” when she did not get a promotion in the civil service.

“She thought she was going to be, whatever it was, permanent secretary in the Northern Ireland Office, and when she was disappointed in that, she cut up rough,” he claimed.

Mr Johnson is publicising his memoirs, Unleashed.

Four people were taken to hospital after a school bus overturned and crashed into a field in County Down, Northern Ireland, on Monday.

Up to 43 schoolchildren were on board when the double-decker bus veered off the road and toppled onto its side in a field 17 miles east of Belfast on Monday afternoon.

Eight people were treated for “significant injuries” at the scene on the Ballyblack Road East near the village of Carrowdore, the Northern Ireland Ambulance Service (NAIS) said.

Pupils from Strangford College, a co-educational secondary school in Carrowdore, were on board.

Dylan Lee, a 12-year-old in year eight, said he had been sitting on the top deck.

“The bus hit a post and it started to stall and went down this hill,” he told the PA news agency at the scene, where he was with his mother, Stacey. “It just started shaking. I closed my eyes and then I opened them and I was on the floor.”

Dylan, who was left with a lump and a cut on his head, said he escaped the bus when a passing motorist used a hammer to smash the windows. “I was crawling under stuff like railings and school bags and stuff,” he added.

Mrs Lee said that, when her son phoned her immediately after the crash, she “could hear him screaming that he had crashed and I could hear all the kids in the background screaming. It was awful”.

Photographs from the scene showed emergency workers gathered around the light blue bus.

Gary Smyth, 46, from Portaferry, told The Telegraph how, armed with a hammer, he and a colleague rushed to smash open a window at the back of the bus, pulling free all but two children. Inside, they discovered a boy and a girl trapped under a seat.

He said: “The bus driver had got out to kick the window in, but we couldn’t get it in so me and my workmate got a hammer and smashed it in.

“The kids were all screaming, they were all panicking. “There was a wee boy and wee girl. The boy was trapped, he was down on the side that was on the ground – him and the wee girl in the seat in front of him. 

“His arm was trapped, but he was conscious. The girl, her leg was trapped under the seat and couldn’t get out.

“The bus driver was in a bad way. He was shaking to bits. He was more or less in shock, so the medics looked after him. There were four of us in two vans. We got them all out bar two.”

Asked whether he was a hero, he said: “All heroes don’t wear capes. I’ve never got as many hugs in my life!”

The Northern Ireland Ambulance Service declared a major incident and said it had treated injured passengers at the scene.

“Initial reports indicated that approximately 70 people were on board the bus,” it said in a statement. “This figure has been revised to 43 and a driver.

“NIAS has assessed and treated patients at the scene, with four currently requiring further treatment at hospital. The remainder have either been, or are in the process of being assessed with a view to discharging at the scene.”

The Police Service of Northern Ireland described it as a “serious road traffic collision” and declared a major incident. 

The Northern Ireland Fire and Rescue Service said it had dispatched a specialist rescue team to the scene. Motorists were asked to avoid the area.

The South Eastern Trust said “our staff in the emergency department are preparing to treat anyone who needs our care”.

A vet with an “exceptional” reputation has been reprimanded for taking home a patient’s cat instead of euthanising it.

In December 2021, Dr Janine Parody was told to put down an eight-month old cat after its owner brought it to the Castle Veterinary Group in Framlingham, Suffolk.

The owner said she wanted the pet, named Shadow, euthanised because it was “very sick” with MRSA, thin, and had facial injuries, a Royal College of Veterinary Surgeons (RCVS) tribunal heard.

Instead, Dr Parody sedated the cat, castrated it, removed its micro-chip, put in a new one and took it home to look after it.

The vet, who had been described by colleagues as “exceptional” and “very fair”, said she had “already done back-to-back euthanasias that morning [and could] not face another”.

She also consulted a dermatologist after a colleague asked whether cats with MRSA could be treated.

Dr Parody, a single mother who has two dogs and two cats, took Shadow home over Christmas of 2021.

The cat’s owner, named only as SM at the RCVS tribunal, said she had “grieved for his little soul”.

The owner later described how she was “shocked and elated” after being told Shadow had not been put to sleep – but she had to pay £480 to have it returned.

Two months later, the cat’s condition worsened and it was put down. Dr Parody resigned and an investigation was launched.

A tribunal heard that the cat’s owner felt Dr Parody wanted to keep the cat for herself.

Dr Parody said due to Covid-19, her practice was covering for two others and that it was “close to collapse”.

She said the clinic was “ready to euthanise” Shadow on Dec 20 2021, adding:  “Upon entering the room, I was greeted by a sweet young cat which appeared healthy apart from his skin condition.”

“I think it is important to say here that even though at that point I had been a vet for over 10 years, euthanasias are never easy and you always ‘take them home’ with you.”

The panel found that there had been a miscommunication as Dr Parody wrongly believed that the cat did not have an owner.

‘Wrong decision’

Dr Parody said: “I understand that my decision not to euthanise Shadow and instead to treat him without the consent of SM was wrong.

“It was a decision I made on a very, very busy and stressful day and when I thought the cat had no owner but I fully appreciate that was no excuse.

“The lady who had brought the cat in… was misled into thinking that it had been put to sleep and this is something I very much regret.

“My actions were not in any way for my personal gain. I did not want to adopt the cat and never had any intention of doing so.”

The panel concluded that Dr Parody had been acting in “the best interests for the welfare of a viable young cat, whom she felt deserved another chance at life”.

It added: “A simple scan of the microchip and a consequent check of the clinical records, would have shown that the cat had a name and an owner.

“Had Dr Parody done that and still felt that the cat should have been given another chance, having spoken to the dermatologist, she could and should have then relayed that to the new owner, SM, and sought her views.”

Dr Parody, who now works at a practice in Hereford, was given a reprimand.

Melania Trump has revealed she is pen pals with the King.

The former first lady has an “ongoing correspondence” with the King, according to a review of her new memoir in the New York Times.

It is unclear when the pair began exchanging letters, but Mrs Trump apparently met the then-Prince of Wales in New York in 2005.

They reunited in 2019 when Mrs Trump made a state visit to the UK with her husband Donald, then the US president.

The Daily Beast reports she described it as an “absolute pleasure to reconnect with him” in her book, which is published on Tuesday.

“This time we engaged in an interesting conversation about his deep-rooted commitment to environmental conservation,” Mrs Trump added.

Donald Trump also exchanges letters with the King, according to reports.

The King sent a private letter to the Republican presidential candidate after an attempt was made on his life while he held a rally in Pennsylvania in July.

Buckingham Palace has not revealed the contents of that message.

Accounts vary of the Royal family’s reception to the Trumps on their state visit, with a former aide claiming Elizabeth II found the couple “gracious and wonderful”.

“I spoke to the Queen subsequently after the state visit, and other members of the royal household, and she told me she found them to be really gracious and wonderful guests to have in the palace,” the source told the New York Post.

However, in Craig Brown’s “A Voyage Around The Queen,” Elizabeth II is said to have found Donald Trump “very rude”.

“She particularly disliked the way he couldn’t stop looking over her shoulder, as though in search of others more interesting,” the book states.

Responding to the claims, Donald Trump said he had a “great relationship” with the late Queen, described her as a “fantastic woman,” and called Mr Brown a “sleazebag”.

Elsewhere in her memoir, Mrs Trump revealed she is pro-choice and believes it is “imperative” that women can choose whether to have an abortion.

Her comments draw a stark contrast with her husband who has taken credit for overturning Roe v. Wade, a Supreme Court ruling protecting abortion rights.

Mrs Trump describes her husband as “passionate” and “warm” in the book, saying she understands why people do not like his social media posts but insisting he needs to “fight back”.

Buckingham Palace declined to comment.

Hundreds gathered at the site of the Supernova festival massacre at dawn on Monday to remember the 364 killed and 40 taken hostage there exactly one year ago.

It was an achingly sad ceremony as the sun rose across the Western Negev, the silence punctuated by the cries of distraught relatives and powerful intermittent artillery fire into nearby Gaza.

“What are these bombs? Where were you on Oct 7?” said Mosses Journo, whose 24-year-old niece Karin was among those murdered by Hamas gunmen at the festival. 

The wounds of that terrible day, in which nearly 1,200 people died and 250 were taken hostage, have hardly started to heal in Israel. And as the day rolled on, some wondered if they ever will.

Throughout the day, the country was forced to contend with hundreds of missiles fired by Iran’s terrorist proxies in Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen.

Several managed to penetrate the country’s air defences, causing damage to people and property. It was a small miracle that, at the time of writing, no one had been killed.

The day also energised the protests of the hostage families, many of whom accuse the government of abandoning their loved ones.

It’s a schism that runs bone deep here, exaggerated not just by party politics, but competing views of what modern Israel should stand for.

“The social contract in a country like ours is that the citizen gives his life to the country, and in return the country does everything to protect them,” said Danny Elgarat, whose brother Itzik, 69, was taken hostage from Kibbutz Nir Oz on Oct 7.

“In Israel that contract is broken,” added Mr Elgarat, who is on hunger strike.

The anniversary dominated Israeli television broadcasts throughout the day, toxic politics and tight security restrictions having forced the official memorial events online.

The media aired a constant stream of interviews with survivors, relatives of hostages, and soldiers who fought against Hamas on Oct 7.

Compilation scenes from the massacre itself, as well as the terrible aftermath in the farms and villages around Gaza were also shown.

Up to 40,000 people had planned to attend an event staged by the hostage families in Yarkon Park, Tel Aviv, on Monday evening, but it was drastically cut down after the IDF Home Front Command reduced gatherings to just 2,000 people.

The ceremony started emotionally as the stories of some of the dead were told and the Kaddish, the mourner’s prayer, recited.

Later Rafi Ben Shitrit, whose son Shimon was killed on Oct 7, called for a state commission of inquiry into the disaster – raising a loud cheer from the audience.

“The legacy of the fallen, among them Alroy, in these terrible days, demands that we conduct national soul-searching. The beginning of healing comes with acceptance of responsibility,” he said.

Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, has so far resisted calls for an independent inquiry, saying it must wait for the end of the war.

The official event, organised by the government and shunned by families of the victims, started later in the evening and was broadcast on television.

It was pre-recorded without an audience in an apparent attempt to prevent disruptions or direct interactions between officials and families, who have heavily criticised the government’s handling of the war.

In a somber speech, Mr Netanyahu vowed to continue fighting as he described Oct 7 as an “indescribable sorrow” that will “symbolise for generations the price of our revival”.

“As long as the enemy threatens our existence and the peace of our country — we will continue to fight,” he pledged, framing Israel’s fight against terror as a battle for “all humanity”.

As the day wore on, more and more interruptions were made to television broadcasts to warn of incoming missiles, or to show the damage caused by their impact.

Outside Mr Netanyahu’s home in Jerusalem, about 300 people led by families of hostages holding up photos of their loved ones, observed a minute of silence for the dead as a siren sounded.

“We’re still stuck in October 7th, 2023, in one unending day of terror, of fear, of anger, of despair,” Yuval Baron, whose father-in-law Keith Siegel is a hostage in Gaza, told Reuters.

Yet the desert in Re’im, where the Supernova festival was held, retained its mystic air ahead of dawn – the same spell that drew so many young people to it in the late summer of 2023.

At 6:29am, the dance music that played when Hamas struck with machine guns and mortars was briefly repeated, bringing back memories that were too much to bear for some.

A commemorative siren then sounded across the area, followed by softer songs and prayers.

Security was tight and visitors were briefed ahead of the event over a PA system on what to do if there was another attack.

As helicopter gunships hovered high above, Isaac Herzog, the Israeli president, moved quietly among the crowd, listening to relatives and comforting those he could.

“We will remember always who kidnapped, who murdered, who raped, who slaughtered. At the same time, we have also seen extraordinary fortitude. We have a wonderful people, and on this day we strengthen it and call for unity,” he said.

Jean-Noël Barrot, the French foreign minister, also visited as part of a four-day tour of the region.

“Force alone cannot guarantee the security of Israel, your security. Military success cannot be a substitute for a political perspective,” he later told reporters.

Just an hour or so later rockets were launched by Hamas in Gaza towards central Israel, damaging property and injuring several people.

The Israeli military said its aircraft foiled a larger rocket attack planned by the terrorist group.

The Re’im festival site is marked by a unique and sobering memorial.

Portrait images of the 364 lives lost sit atop simple metal fence posts, the base of each adorned with pebbles and kalanit flowers, a wild poppy for which the area is famous.

It was a heart-wrenching sight, but one that somehow managed to celebrate as well as mourn the lives of those who were lost.

There was hardly a face among the forest of images that looked over 30, with most even younger.

Every family that gathered there had their own story and personal sorrow, although there seemed to be a bonding in grief for many.

Shany Zohar, older sister of Bar Zohar, 23, spoke eloquently on behalf of her sibling who was murdered here a year ago.

She and friends had tried to escape in a car, but was shot and fatally wounded, succumbing to her wounds in the field an hour and half later.

“In the end she died alone, but her friends tried to save her for a long time – they really did”, says Shany, who with her close family has pieced together Bar’s last moments.

“She was my little sister, my soulmate. Today, as the music played, I felt she was here, that she was with us.

“She died but not before she helped three of her friends to escape. That is who she was. She’s a hero.”

Joe Biden pushed the UK into giving up the Chagos Islands over concerns the US would lose control of an important air base, The Telegraph understands.

Days after the general election in July, senior officials from the White House’s National Security Council and State Department told the incoming Labour government that refusing to sign away the islands would jeopardise the “special relationship” with Washington.

Sir Keir Starmer was criticised last week for his decision to give up the archipelago of more than 1,000 tiny islands, a UK overseas territory since 1965 known officially as the British Indian Ocean Territory.

It was suggested the deal could give China access to the Diego Garcia air base, which is on the largest island in the chain.

Under the deal, Mauritius will take control of the islands, but Britain and the US will rent the base for 99 years.

Strategically important air base

The Telegraph understands that American officials pushed the UK toward the deal, fearing that if it was not signed, Mauritius would successfully apply for a binding ruling at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to take control of the islands, effectively shuttering the air base.

The base is considered strategically important because it puts some bomber aircraft within range of the Middle East. Diego Garcia was previously used by the US to conduct bombing runs in Iraq and Afghanistan.

US officials told the Foreign Office that a quick deal should be signed before the American and Mauritian elections next month, agreeing to give up UK territory in exchange for the base.

The officials argued that handing over the islands would safeguard Britain’s special relationship with the US, and that a binding court ruling would make it more difficult to fly aircraft to the base, conduct repairs, and cooperate with UN agencies.

‘Deal makes UK look pathetic’

Since announcing the deal on Thursday, the Government has faced criticism from MPs, who argue that Britain should not have agreed to give up territory and to rent a military base it already controls.

Boris Johnson said the “terrible” deal made the UK look “pathetic”.

Some also argued that the base would come under threat from Chinese spyware, because Mauritius and China are economically aligned.

The Telegraph understands that the full terms of the deal, which has not been made public, contain protections against Chinese influence in the islands without the agreement of Britain and the US.

On Monday, Robert Jenrick said David Lammy had signed the deal so that he could “feel good about himself at his next north London dinner party”.

In a debate discussing the decision in Parliament, the Tory leadership contender said: “We’ve just handed sovereign British territory to a small island nation which is an ally of China – and we’re paying for the privilege.

“All so that the foreign secretary can feel good about himself at his next North London dinner party.”

‘Unsustainable’ legal position

However, the Foreign Secretary told MPs on Monday that the dispute between Britain and Mauritius was “clearly not sustainable” and that Labour faced a choice between “abandoning the base altogether or breaking international law”.

Friends of the British Overseas Territories, a charity dedicated to British-owned islands abroad, called Mr Lammy’s statement “shameful”.

“Proceeding with the transfer of [the island] goes against our national interests and must be stopped at once,” it said.

The ICJ had already issued a non-binding ruling that the islands belong to Mauritius, and a further ruling that forced the handover of the base was likely, he said, because of the “regrettable” removal of indigenous islanders by the UK in the 1960s.

Downing Street insisted the deal to give up sovereignty over the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT) was due to the “unsustainable” legal position and had no impact on other disputed territories including the Falkland Islands and Gibraltar.

The Prime Minister’s official spokesman would not be drawn on the cost to the UK taxpayer of the deal which will see Mauritius being given sovereignty over the islands, with a 99-year agreement to secure the strategically important UK-US military base on Diego Garcia.

The spokesman said: “The Government inherited a situation where the long-term secure operation of the military base at Diego Garcia was under threat with contested sovereignty and legal challenges, including through various international courts and tribunals.

“You will be aware that the previous government initiated sovereignty negotiations in 2022 and conducted a number of rounds of negotiations. This Government picked up those negotiations and has reached an agreement, which means that for the first time in over 50 years, the base will be undisputed, legally secure, with full Mauritian backing.”

Asked why the Islands should not be seen as a precedent for other sovereignty disputes such as the Falklands and Gibraltar, the spokesman said: “It’s a unique situation based on its unique history and circumstances, and has no bearing on other overseas territories.”

The spokesman added: “British sovereignty of the Falkland Islands or Gibraltar is not up for negotiation.”

September was the deadliest month for Russia’s army since the start of the war in Ukraine, British military intelligence said on Monday.

The average casualty rate for the Russian army rose to 1,271 soldiers killed or badly injured per day.

Previously, the highest daily casualty rate for Russian soldiers had been in May, with an average of 1,262 soldiers killed or injured.

“The increase in the casualty rate since May 2024 is almost certainly due to the extension of the combat zone to include both Kharkiv and Kursk military operations, and increased intensity along the frontline,” the Ministry of Defence said.

Russia launched a surprise invasion of the Kharkiv region from its Belgorod region in May, while its forces suffered high casualties attempting to repel Ukraine’s ongoing incursion into the Kursk region.

September was also the fifth consecutive month that Russian casualties averaged more than 1,000 soldiers per day.

Analysts said that the high casualty rate was linked to Russian mass infantry tactics, often involving “meat wave” assaults where large numbers of troops are sent to storm Ukrainian defensive positions.

“I expect Russia to continue to grind forward, probing for weakness. Very grim. We can’t expect a Russia pause over the winter,” said John Foreman, Britain’s former defence attache in Moscow.

The MoD said that Russia had now lost nearly 650,000 soldiers since its invasion in February 2022. Its casualties averaged between 172 and 559 per day in 2022, then peaked at 967 in 2023.

“Russian forces will highly likely continue to attempt to stretch Ukrainian forces by utilising mass to overwhelm defensive positions,” it said.

Over the past 14 months, Russia has been making steady gains in eastern Ukraine, but at a high cost.

Last week, Russia captured the shattered town of Vuhledar from Ukraine after a lengthy battle including two failed past attempts.

The town, once considered a “fortress”, had never before been captured and it marked the most significant battlefield victory since Kremlin troops took control of Avdiivka in February.

Analysts warned that Russian forces will now be able to use the town as a launchpad to capture other Ukrainian strongholds to the west.

In the Kharkiv region, a pro-Ukrainian Russian activist-turned-soldier was killed fighting for Kyiv’s forces on Saturday.
Ildar Dadin was well-known in anti-Kremlin circles for being the first person sent to prison under tightened 2014 laws against anti-government protests in Russia. He had been fighting for a volunteer battalion since 2023.

A glass and steel walkway is to be built across Rome’s Trevi Fountain, restricting access to visitors as the water is emptied ahead of a thorough scrubbing.

Only a few people will be allowed on the walkway at once in what the city authorities say will be a likely precursor to charging an entrance fee to the baroque monument.

The city announced in September that it wants to introduce a tourist fee to tackle overcrowding at the landmark, which attracts millions of visitors a year.

The walkway, which will be constructed later this month, will allow visitors to have a close-up view of technicians who will clean the fountain’s shallow basin of grime, calcium deposits, bacteria and weeds growing in cracks.

The huge fountain features small brackets made of bronze, lead and iron which over the years have leached orange stains onto the monument’s travertine and marble blocks.

The “extraordinary maintenance” project, as Rome city council calls it, will last for all of November, after which the walkway will be dismantled and removed.

Roberto Gualtieri, the centre-Left mayor of Rome, said the walkway was an experiment that would help officials better understand the number of tourists who flock to the fountain throughout the year.

“A set number of tourists will be allowed to enter the walkway and when they exit at the other end, other visitors will be allowed to enter, the mayor said at the presentation of the plan in Rome’s renaissance town hall.

“It will allow us to better study the flow of tourists and the time they spend at the Trevi.”

The information will prove useful when the authorities start restricting access to the stone steps that lead down to the fountain basin and charging an entrance fee, which is likely to begin next year.

The mayor did not reveal how much the entrance charge would be, saying only that it would be “a small contribution”, but other officials have suggested it could be one or two euros.

‘Remain visible’

Miguel Gotor, the councillor responsible for culture, said: “We’re conscious of the fact that this is one of the most iconic monuments in the world, but the fountain will remain visible throughout the maintenance period.”

The restrictive measures come as Rome braces for next year’s jubilee, a special holy year of Vatican events that is expected to attract millions of pilgrims.

The Trevi Fountain is one of Rome’s most popular tourist attractions. Visitors throw a coin with their right hand over their left shoulder into the water – according to legend, the gesture ensures you will one day return to the Eternal City.

It was immortalised by a famous scene in the 1960 film La Dolce Vita when the Swedish actress Anita Ekberg waded into the water, beckoning her Italian co-star, Marcello Mastroianni, to join her.

The remarkable tableau of creamy marble features sculptures of conch-blowing Tritons, rearing horses and the god Oceanus.

Entry charge critics

The last time it underwent major cleaning and restoration was in 2014-2015, when the work was paid for by Fendi, the fashion house.

The plan to charge entry to the Trevi Fountain has already caused a row in Rome, with critics saying the fee will do nothing to tackle overtourism and that the city should remain free and open to all.

Giovanni Quarzo, from the Right-wing Brothers of Italy, said: “Such a thing has never happened at the Trevi Fountain. It will be the umpteenth temporary solution from an administration that has no idea how to manage tourist numbers.”

The cleaning of the Trevi is part of an extensive programme of restoring Rome’s fountains and monuments. Barcaccia, a boat-shaped fountain that sits at the foot of the Spanish Steps, will also get a makeover, along with a small fountain featuring turtles in the Jewish ghetto district of the city.

The Japanese government has been mocked for doctoring an official photograph to make the cabinet look marginally more tidy.

Pictures taken by local media showed Shigeru Ishiba, Japan’s new prime minister, and the defence minister with the ends of their white shirts sticking out underneath their suits.

But an official photo issued by the prime minister’s office on Thursday showed everything in order.

After careful observers noticed the subtle changes, the government conceded on Monday that “minor editing was made” to the photograph.

Yoshimasa Hayashi, a government spokesman, said the photo needed editing as it would be “preserved forever as memorabilia” and that “minor editing is customarily performed” on official photos.

The editing backfired, provoking further ridicule online in Japan, known for its order and propriety.

“This is more hideous than a group picture of some kind of a seniors’ club during a trip to a hot spring. It’s utterly embarrassing,” one critic observed.

“The words ‘nursing home entrance ceremony’ are going round and round in my head,” another joked.

The episode had echoes of the scandal that rocked the British Royal family earlier this year, when Kate Middleton came under fire for editing a family photograph.

In Japan, the editing led to observers also pointing out a whole host of problems with the original photograph, including faces masked in shadows, people looking away, the height differences among the back row. “They need a stylist,” one person wrote online.

“It’s just sloppy and unreliable,” another said, adding that “this kind of image” is why the cabinet will be “short-lived”.

The photo, taken on Thursday, came after the first meeting of Japan’s new cabinet.

A few days earlier, Mr Ishiba, 67, replaced outgoing prime minister Fumio Kishida, after he stepped down on Oct 1 following a series of political scandals.

Mr Ishiba, the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party is a former defence minister who backed the formation of an “Asian Nato”.

His new cabinet has already faced backlash for its lack of gender diversity, with only two women selected for relatively minor roles within the 19-member team, down from five in the outgoing cabinet.

A snap election is set for Oct 27, a year before it had been due to take place, in order to decide which party controls parliament’s lower house.

“It is important for the new administration to be judged by the people as soon as possible,” Mr Ishiba said last week.

State educated students struggle to read long novels, an Oxford University professor of English has said.

Literacy rates are in decline, with growing reports of students being less able to read than previous generations.

While this has often been blamed on smartphones and social media causing an “attrition of attention”, Prof Sir Jonathan Bate believes that university diversity drives are to blame.

Elite universities such as Cambridge and Oxford have been trying to recruit more state school pupils, while admissions from leading private institutions have dropped to record lows.

Sir Jonathan, who is also a foundation professor of environmental humanities at Arizona State University, told BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme: “One factor is a kind of unintended consequence of the push in both elite British and American universities towards diversity and access. 

“You know, the very desirable idea of getting in more students from disadvantaged backgrounds. Because those students come from disadvantaged schools where the teacher’s main task is crowd control, the demands in terms of reading long books are just not there.”

His comments came after an article was published in The Atlantic magazine last week titled “The elite college students who can’t read books”.

The article claimed that “private schools, which produce a disproportionate share of elite college students, seem to have been slower to shift away from reading complete volumes – leading to… a disconcerting reading-skills gap among incoming freshmen”.

Sir Jonathan added that he experienced this attainment gap when teaching at Oxford.

“They were able students, but they simply hadn’t been exposed to large numbers of long books,” he said. “They hadn’t really developed that habit of concentrated, lengthy reading which private schools in both the UK and the US concentrate on.”

He claimed that literature students now struggle to finish one book in three weeks, whereas they had previously been able to read three in just one week.

He told the broadcaster: “I’ve been teaching in British and American universities for 40 years, and when I began in Cambridge, you could say to students ‘this week, it’s Dickens, so please read Great Expectations, David Copperfield and Bleak House’. 

“Now, instead of three novels in a week, many students will struggle to get through one novel in three weeks.”

He added: “Of course, it really does all begin in schools, doesn’t it? You only have to look at the thinning of the GCSE and A level syllabuses and the tendency to prescribe works because they’re shorter. I think of it as the ‘John Steinbeck Of Mice and Men effect’. You know, they’d never prescribe The Grapes of Wrath anymore, but Of Mice and Men is nice and short.”

In 2022 a Telegraph analysis revealed that state school pupils were for the first time more likely than private school pupils to get into Cambridge, with Oxford close to achieving the same milestone.

Universities are required by the higher education watchdog to have plans on “widening access” to students from different backgrounds.

In its access plan for the five academic years to 2024-25, Cambridge chose to introduce state school targets, stating that it wanted to increase the proportion of state school undergraduates.

The decline in offer rates at top independent schools has led to warnings from the independent schools’ sector and parents, who said universities should not be about “social engineering”.

When asked about the long term impact of literature students from state schools being unable to read long books, Sir Jonathan said it was troubling for literary culture, wider society and the economy.

He said: “The longer term impact is very troubling for the future of a literary culture.

“If you haven’t got readers, what are writers going to do? The intensive, thoughtful, quiet reading of great books is good for mental health. It’s very, very good for developing skills of concentration and critical thinking, and if that falls away, that is problematic for businesses, for society, for individuals.”

A planning row has erupted in a Georgian conservation area after the council ordered an orange and blue shopfront to be repainted.

Peters’ Cleaner in Stamford, Lincolnshire was given the bold makeover in October 2022 in an attempt to make it “stand out”.

Vicky Whiter, its owner, has since been locked in a battle with South Kesteven district council because she did not apply for planning permission before the “unacceptable” paint job.

Conservation rules in her area of Stamford, which has been dubbed “Britain’s most picturesque” town, mean that any repainting of shopfronts needs to be approved by the council.

Ms Whiter said that she was unaware of the rules when she had it painted the shopfront and that she cannot afford to pay to have it changed, which she estimates would cost as much as £5,000.

She said: “I budget to re-decorate the shop front every four years and will happily adhere to all planning when I plan to re-decorate in the summer of 2026.”

“At this time however I cannot put the survival of my business at risk by spending now.”

Ms Whiter’s shop was previously painted dark blue, which she said made it hard to identify.

The new colours were introduced along with a vinyl orange screen covering the top of the front window which Ms Whiter said was necessary to protect her and her employees from the sun which shines into the shop for most of the day.

Several other shops in Stamford have eye-catching shades, including Oliver Bonas, which stands out in pink in the High Street, and Joules, which sports yellow.

Ms Whiter said she fears that she will be taken to court by the council if her request for more time to repaint the shopfront is refused.

According to the Stamford Shopfront Design Guide, a document drawn up by the district council to ensure that the heritage is retained, the maximum penalty for breaking the rules is two years in prison and an unlimited fine.

The rules include a recommendation to use white or neutral colours on slender shopfronts, and a single colour for all the major elements of the design.

But there is no indication of what colours are and are not allowed.

“This bullish attitude is unfathomable,” Ms Whiter said.

“Stamford’s independent shops are the heart and soul of the town and are what makes it special.”

She added: “I very much hope the council will take a pragmatic and supportive stance and work with small independent retailers to ensure that by improving the look of the high street they don’t immeasurably damage it by driving independents out of business.”

A spokesman for South Kesteven district council said any changes to the shop were subject to conservation area and listed building rules.

They said: “Listing ensures that the architectural and historic interests of buildings are carefully considered separately from the merits of any development proposals and before any alterations, either external or internal, are agreed.

“Listed building consent is required for any changes that would alter their special character.

“No advice or guidance was sought prior to the painting of these premises but council officers have since suggested alternative paint colours that would be appropriate and are happy to continue to work with the applicant to agree both these and a timescale for the repainting of the shopfront.”

Britain has never been fatter – with the average man weighing 14st by middle age, according to new data.

The NHS statistics show that we weigh around a stone more than we did 30 years ago – while waistlines keep expanding.

Middle-aged women now weigh an average of 12st, the figures show, with waists of around 36in.

Men of the same age tip the scales at 14st, with a waistband of around 40in.

Health officials said the figures, which reflect the average weights for those aged between 45 and 64, were “worrying” – saying obesity is now one of the greatest challenges facing the country.

It comes as new research suggests that adult obesity may now have peaked in the US. Rates have fallen by around two percentage points since 2020, to 40 per cent.

In England the figure is 26 per cent. Experts said increased employment of weight-loss drugs, which one in eight American adults have used, could be behind the recent US dip.

The NHS is now gearing up for the mass rollout of weight-loss jabs for the first time. The proposals will see up to 1.6 million people offered injections of tirzepatide, marketed as Mounjaro, with some prescriptions issued via “remote clinics” following online consultations.

The jabs will be targeted at the heaviest patients with the most health problems, starting with those with a BMI over 40 and multiple chronic illnesses.

But the national research results reveal a far wider problem – with two in three people losing in the battle of the bulge.

‘Diabetes, heart attack and stroke’

Dr Clare Hambling, NHS national clinical director for diabetes and obesity, said: “These worrying figures highlight that obesity is now one of the greatest public health issues we face in this country.

“It has a major impact on our health, increasing the risk of many diseases including diabetes, heart attack and stroke, and action is urgently needed across society to turn the tide on the rising rates seen in recent decades and stop so many lives being cut short.”

She said the NHS was “here to help” those trying to lose weight, rolling out 12-week courses which offer behavioural coaching and lifestyle advice for obese patients with health conditions such as Type 2 diabetes and high blood pressure.

“Maintaining a healthy weight can be difficult, but the NHS is here to help those at greatest risk through our effective digital weight management programme and providing access to new weight loss treatments, while supporting wider efforts to tackle the issues contributing to obesity to help save lives and reduce its cost to families, the health service and the economy,” Dr Hambling said.

The figures for England show that in 1993, when data collection began, the country was already battling a major weight problem.

In total, 44 per cent of men were overweight, while 13 per cent were obese.

Now 39 per cent are overweight – while 28 per cent are obese.

For women, 32 per cent were overweight and 16 per cent obese.

Now, the figures are 31 per cent and 30 per cent respectively.

The statistics from the Health Survey for England 2022 shows that the peak age for excess weight is 55 to 64, when 80 per cent of men and 69 per cent of women are overweight or obese.

Average heights come in at 5ft 9in for men, and 5ft 4in for women.

Across all ages, the average woman now has a waistline of 34.9in – around two and half inches more than in 1993. For men it is 38.3in, almost two inches more than it was 30 years ago.

The rest of the UK collects data in different ways, but the figures show similar trends.

Tam Fry from the National Obesity Forum said the statistics “highlight the abysmal failure of every administration since 1993 to tackle obesity.”

Katherine Jenner, director of the Obesity Health Alliance, a coalition of charities and medical royal colleges, which is calling for extra taxes on unhealthy foods said: “We all want to grow old healthily, and maintaining a healthy weight is an important factor in living out our years in good health.

“However, it is not always easy to access a healthy, nutritious diet, especially if you are juggling responsibilities such as being a parent, carer, worker and managing a household, as many people in middle age are.”

A spokesperson for the Department of Health and Social Care said: “This country has failed to tackle the obesity crisis, harming people’s health and costing the NHS billions of pounds.

“This government is urgently tackling the obesity crisis head on – shifting our focus from treatment to prevention – to ease the strain on our NHS and helping people to live well for longer.”

Herbert Asquith, the wartime prime minister, could not have done his job in the MeToo era, the author of a book about his affair with an aristocrat 35 years his junior has said.

Robert Harris, a historical fiction novelist and former BBC journalist, suggested that the affair between the Liberal prime minister, who led the country from 1908 to 1916, and Venetia Stanley would have disqualified him from the role.

Speaking at the Cheltenham Literature Festival following the release of his novel Precipice about the high-stakes affair, Harris said: “I didn’t want to portray him as a kind of monster, and I mean in the MeToo era, he’d be completely finished, utterly.

“But I didn’t want to just write that crude sort of a book where she’s a victim and he’s a predator, it’s a much more nuanced thing than that.”

The author, who used Asquith’s letters to Stanley to piece together his research for the book of historical fiction, added: “Am I being terribly unfair and unjust to Asquith?

“Some of his descendants now seem to think so. I don’t think so, I think I bent over backwards to be sympathetic to him.”

During his research for Precipice, Harris found that the married father of seven was smitten with his young mistress and shared state secrets with her as he led Britain into the First World War.

Stanley, a friend of Asquith’s daughter, came to be an unofficial adviser to the prime minister, who wrote hundreds of letters to her – extracts of which are included in Harris’s novel.

“He wrote notes to Venetia, then in her late 20s, during crucial Cabinet meetings and clearly sought her advice, as well as sending her love poetry – lines from Tennyson and Browning,” Harris previously said.

Discussing the ethical implications of writing about the affair in a novel of historical fiction, Harris admitted on Monday that there is an “ethical dilemma” that he remains conscious of with his novels.

“All I can do is say that there is a tremendous amount – one complains about the internet age and social media and so on – but one of the things you do have as a reader now is almost a concordance, you can look up every character or incident and see if it’s true,” he said.

The novel focuses on the relationship between Asquith and Stanley, the Asquith government’s conduct of the war, and the effect of both on each other.

Harris said that “it’s hard not to think” that their affair “wasn’t a distraction” for the premier during critical years of military action and policy.

“Clearly he was writing to her when Churchill was laying out what became one of the biggest military disasters of the British Empire…eventually costing the British 32,000 dead,” he said.

“It was an ill-conceived venture from the beginning, and there is the prime minister when it was first being talked about writing to his mistress, so it’s hard not to think that it wasn’t a distraction.”

The author was given access to an archive of letters, telegrams and official documents for his novel, many of which are reprinted in it.

Visitors to Richmond Park have been warned not to approach deer after a man was pictured holding a young child within metres of a stag.

Tim Constable, a photographer, saw the incident while taking pictures in the London park and said that he feared the stag might attack the man and toddler.

“I saw the parent close to the deer. He was not only risking his safety but his child’s, too,” he said.

“When the antlers went down, I think they realised the stag meant business. They were slow to back away, though.

“It seemed a very strange thing to do putting your kid in the way of some massive antlers.”

He added: “We thought that the stag would attack.”

More than 630 red and fallow deer live in Richmond Park, which is a National Nature Reserve.

During the rutting season, between late September and early November, stags become more aggressive as they compete for mates.

Conservation groups have warned that attacks on visitors by deer have increased in recent years as people take more risks for a photograph opportunity.

‘Extremely unsafe situation’

Peter Lawrence, the assistant park manager at Richmond Park, warned visitors to stay at least 50 metres away from deer during rutting season.

“We were deeply concerned to see an image, taken over the weekend, of two visitors, including a child, standing dangerously close to a rutting deer in Richmond Park,” he said. “This is an extremely unsafe situation.

“We remind all visitors to Richmond Park and Bushy Park to exercise extreme caution during the rutting season, which runs from late September to early November.

“During this period, male deer may exhibit heightened aggression as they compete for mates, making their behaviour unpredictable and potentially dangerous.

“For safety, visitors should keep a distance of at least 50 metres from the deer, and up to 100 metres if they are moving.”

Regular occurrence

Mr Constable said that he did not see the man approach the stag, but he did not believe it would have “approached him because they tend to keep to themselves”.

He said that the man and child appeared to be no more than 2ft away from the stag.

“I think he realised that the deer didn’t want to play, and he backed off,” Mr Constable said.

The photographer added that seeing visitors too close to the deer was becoming a regular occurrence in the park.

In 2020, police warned visitors to keep well back from deer after a woman was pictured being pushed from behind. The same year, a man was photographed being chased by a stag after apparently attempting to feed it.

In 2017, Yuan Li, a high-profile hatmaker, required treatment in hospital after being gored by a stag.

A pro-Palestinian protester can be seen appearing to spit on an Israeli flag in footage shared online.

In the clip, the man appears to spit twice on the flag and shouts expletives about Israel at a rally in New York, according to the footage which was posted online by an editor for the news outlet Unherd.

It comes amid protests across the US a year after the attack on Israel by Hamas, which saw 1,200 citizens killed and hundreds taken hostage.

In the short clip, the man, who is wearing a keffiyeh—a Middle Eastern scarf adopted by pro-Palestinian protesters—around his head shouts: “Dirty a— country. I spit on it.”

Grabbing his genitalia, he added: “The bottom of my b—s is better than your country.”

He is flanked by another individual wearing a dark tracksuit, and whose face is obscured by a black mask pulled up to their eyes, who shakes the Israeli flag while shouting.

A sign reading “Israel is starving Palestinian children” can be seen in the background. Israel’s military response to the Oct 7 massacre has killed at least 41,000 people in Gaza, according to the Hamas-controlled health ministry.

‘IDF and NYPD compared to KKK’

Some 2,000 pro-Palestinian marchers met at Wall Street on Monday and made their way uptown, the New York Post reported.

A separate group of protesters at New York University apparently compared the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and New York Police Department (NYPD) to the Ku Klux Klan.

“NYPD, KKK, IDF, they’re all the same,” they said, according to the Post.

At Columbia University, the epicenter of pro-Palestinian protests and encampments earlier this year, members of the Jewish community invited people to an art exhibition to reflect on the Oct 7 attack.

The FBI and the Department of Homeland Security have previously warned that the anniversary of the massacre “may be a motivating factor for violent extremists and hate crime perpetrators to engage in violence or threaten public safety”.

Elsewhere, at the University of Maryland, Students for Justice in Palestine planned to host a vigil to “honor the lives lost from the genocide”.

On Saturday, hundreds of demonstrators rallied for a pro-Palestine protest in Los Angeles chanting “Free Palestine” and “Long live the intifada.” One protest leader led the crowd in a chant of “There is only one solution, intifada revolution!”

In Washington DC on Saturday, a man set himself on fire near the White House amid a gathering of some 1,000 pro-Palestine activists. He was later taken to hospital with non-life-threatening injuries.

A 12-year-old girl has suffered life-changing injuries after being attacked by a dog in south Wales.

The girl is in hospital after the “distressing incident” and a man and a woman have been arrested on suspicion of owning or possessing a dog bred for fighting and owning or possessing a dog dangerously out of control, Gwent Police said.

Officers were called to an address in Brynmawr, Blaenau Gwent, at around 5.50pm on Monday.

The dog was seized by officers and will be destroyed. No other animals were involved in the attack.

A 37-year-old man and a 42-year-old woman, both from the Brynmawr area, have been arrested and are in police custody.

Supt John Davies said: “This was a distressing incident for those involved. I would like to reassure the local community there is no further risk to the public.”

Melania Trump has revealed she is pen pals with the King.

The former first lady has an “ongoing correspondence” with the King, according to a review of her new memoir in the New York Times.

It is unclear when the pair began exchanging letters, but Mrs Trump apparently met the then-Prince of Wales in New York in 2005.

They reunited in 2019 when Mrs Trump made a state visit to the UK with her husband Donald, then the US president.

The Daily Beast reports she described it as an “absolute pleasure to reconnect with him” in her book, which is published on Tuesday.

“This time we engaged in an interesting conversation about his deep-rooted commitment to environmental conservation,” Mrs Trump added.

Donald Trump also exchanges letters with the King, according to reports.

The King sent a private letter to the Republican presidential candidate after an attempt was made on his life while he held a rally in Pennsylvania in July.

Buckingham Palace has not revealed the contents of that message.

Accounts vary of the Royal family’s reception to the Trumps on their state visit, with a former aide claiming Elizabeth II found the couple “gracious and wonderful”.

“I spoke to the Queen subsequently after the state visit, and other members of the royal household, and she told me she found them to be really gracious and wonderful guests to have in the palace,” the source told the New York Post.

However, in Craig Brown’s “A Voyage Around The Queen,” Elizabeth II is said to have found Donald Trump “very rude”.

“She particularly disliked the way he couldn’t stop looking over her shoulder, as though in search of others more interesting,” the book states.

Responding to the claims, Donald Trump said he had a “great relationship” with the late Queen, described her as a “fantastic woman,” and called Mr Brown a “sleazebag”.

Elsewhere in her memoir, Mrs Trump revealed she is pro-choice and believes it is “imperative” that women can choose whether to have an abortion.

Her comments draw a stark contrast with her husband who has taken credit for overturning Roe v. Wade, a Supreme Court ruling protecting abortion rights.

Mrs Trump describes her husband as “passionate” and “warm” in the book, saying she understands why people do not like his social media posts but insisting he needs to “fight back”.

Buckingham Palace declined to comment.

Joe Biden pushed the UK into giving up the Chagos Islands over concerns the US would lose control of an important air base, The Telegraph understands.

Days after the general election in July, senior officials from the White House’s National Security Council and State Department told the incoming Labour government that refusing to sign away the islands would jeopardise the “special relationship” with Washington.

Sir Keir Starmer was criticised last week for his decision to give up the archipelago of more than 1,000 tiny islands, a UK overseas territory since 1965 known officially as the British Indian Ocean Territory.

It was suggested the deal could give China access to the Diego Garcia air base, which is on the largest island in the chain.

Under the deal, Mauritius will take control of the islands, but Britain and the US will rent the base for 99 years.

Strategically important air base

The Telegraph understands that American officials pushed the UK toward the deal, fearing that if it was not signed, Mauritius would successfully apply for a binding ruling at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to take control of the islands, effectively shuttering the air base.

The base is considered strategically important because it puts some bomber aircraft within range of the Middle East. Diego Garcia was previously used by the US to conduct bombing runs in Iraq and Afghanistan.

US officials told the Foreign Office that a quick deal should be signed before the American and Mauritian elections next month, agreeing to give up UK territory in exchange for the base.

The officials argued that handing over the islands would safeguard Britain’s special relationship with the US, and that a binding court ruling would make it more difficult to fly aircraft to the base, conduct repairs, and cooperate with UN agencies.

‘Deal makes UK look pathetic’

Since announcing the deal on Thursday, the Government has faced criticism from MPs, who argue that Britain should not have agreed to give up territory and to rent a military base it already controls.

Boris Johnson said the “terrible” deal made the UK look “pathetic”.

Some also argued that the base would come under threat from Chinese spyware, because Mauritius and China are economically aligned.

The Telegraph understands that the full terms of the deal, which has not been made public, contain protections against Chinese influence in the islands without the agreement of Britain and the US.

On Monday, Robert Jenrick said David Lammy had signed the deal so that he could “feel good about himself at his next north London dinner party”.

In a debate discussing the decision in Parliament, the Tory leadership contender said: “We’ve just handed sovereign British territory to a small island nation which is an ally of China – and we’re paying for the privilege.

“All so that the foreign secretary can feel good about himself at his next North London dinner party.”

‘Unsustainable’ legal position

However, the Foreign Secretary told MPs on Monday that the dispute between Britain and Mauritius was “clearly not sustainable” and that Labour faced a choice between “abandoning the base altogether or breaking international law”.

Friends of the British Overseas Territories, a charity dedicated to British-owned islands abroad, called Mr Lammy’s statement “shameful”.

“Proceeding with the transfer of [the island] goes against our national interests and must be stopped at once,” it said.

The ICJ had already issued a non-binding ruling that the islands belong to Mauritius, and a further ruling that forced the handover of the base was likely, he said, because of the “regrettable” removal of indigenous islanders by the UK in the 1960s.

Downing Street insisted the deal to give up sovereignty over the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT) was due to the “unsustainable” legal position and had no impact on other disputed territories including the Falkland Islands and Gibraltar.

The Prime Minister’s official spokesman would not be drawn on the cost to the UK taxpayer of the deal which will see Mauritius being given sovereignty over the islands, with a 99-year agreement to secure the strategically important UK-US military base on Diego Garcia.

The spokesman said: “The Government inherited a situation where the long-term secure operation of the military base at Diego Garcia was under threat with contested sovereignty and legal challenges, including through various international courts and tribunals.

“You will be aware that the previous government initiated sovereignty negotiations in 2022 and conducted a number of rounds of negotiations. This Government picked up those negotiations and has reached an agreement, which means that for the first time in over 50 years, the base will be undisputed, legally secure, with full Mauritian backing.”

Asked why the Islands should not be seen as a precedent for other sovereignty disputes such as the Falklands and Gibraltar, the spokesman said: “It’s a unique situation based on its unique history and circumstances, and has no bearing on other overseas territories.”

The spokesman added: “British sovereignty of the Falkland Islands or Gibraltar is not up for negotiation.”

A close friend of a government minister wrote a report Labour has used to justify the party’s private school VAT raid.

Matthew Pennycook, a minister in the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities, was reported to have been the best man at the wedding of Luke Sibieta, who authored the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) paper on Labour’s plans.

The report found that the VAT policy was expected to have minimal impact on state schools and would likely raise up to £1.5 billion for the Treasury.

Sir Keir Starmer has cited the report when defending his plan to force private schools to pay VAT on fees, which is due to come into effect from Jan 1 2025.

A Treasury document published in July said Mr Pennycook’s department would be involved in implementing the tax raid.

Alongside the VAT plans, the Government will also end business rates relief for private schools in England, which will be legislated for through a local government finance bill led by the housing department.

Other ministers have also repeatedly cited the report when referring to the Government’s VAT plans, with Baroness Smith, the skills minister, mentioning it in Parliament as recently as last month.

The IFS report published in July last year was written by Mr Sibieta, a research fellow specialising in education policy at the independent think tank. He has worked at the IFS for almost 20 years.

‘Removing tax exemptions’

Mr Sibieta is also a close personal friend of Mr Pennycook, the housing minister, and the pair used to live together, according to the political website Guido Fawkes. Mr Pennycook was reportedly also best man at Mr Sibieta’s wedding.

Mr Sibieta’s research suggested that, despite fears state schools could be overwhelmed by the VAT plans, it was likely only to force out around three to seven per cent of the private school population – or around 20,000 to 40,000 pupils.

The report also suggested that “removing tax exemptions would probably have a net gain to the public finances of about £1.3 billion – £1.5 billion per year”.

Labour has leant on the upper limit of this analysis, saying it will use the estimated £1.5bn brought in through the VAT raid to raise education standards in the state sector.

However, other organisations have criticised the estimates as optimistic, and suggested the proportion of private school pupils driven out by the policy could be much higher, and therefore the money raised much lower.

The Independent Schools Council (ISC), which represents around half of private schools, published figures last week showing around 10,000 fewer pupils have enrolled at private schools this September compared to last year.

Julie Robinson, the ISC’s chief executive, said it suggested predictions relied on by Labour could be off the mark.

“This data couldn’t be clearer: parents are already removing their children from independent schools as a result of the Government’s plans to charge parents VAT,” she said.

“This is just the tip of the iceberg and the knock-on effect on schools is significant, with many small schools already at risk of closure.”

Mr Sibieta insisted the number of private school pupils was expected to fall even without the VAT policy coming into force as a declining birth rate makes its way throFugh the school system.

“It is way, way too early to reach definite conclusions. Whilst parents will be anticipating the change, it hasn’t even come in yet,” he wrote on Twitter.

“We’ll probably need to wait for at least two years to get a good sense of whether the effect is small or large.”

Tory deferral 

It comes amid broader concerns over the Government’s VAT plans, with education unions and tax associations now calling on ministers to delay the policy until at least September 2025.

The Conservatives will also use an Opposition Day debate on Tuesday to call for the policy to be postponed until 2028 in regions where state schools are the fullest.

Writing for The Telegraph ahead of the debate, Damian Hinds, the shadow education secretary, said: “To avoid a localised school place crisis, we are calling for the education tax to be deferred for three years in areas where secondary schools are currently more than 95 per cent full.

“Labour’s education tax will be bad for state education – it will reduce choice, increase class sizes and be disruptive for teachers and pupils.”

Mr Sibieta and Mr Pennycook were approached for comment.

An IFS spokesman said: “The IFS is, and is widely recognised to be, a politically independent research organisation committed to the highest standards of empirical analysis on important issues of public policy. 

“Our report on VAT on private schools, like all our work, adheres to these standards of excellence and impartiality, laying out the evidence as it exists whilst making clear the limits of that evidence.”

The Government was contacted for comment.