The New York Times 2024-10-28 12:12:11


Ukraine Invaded Russia. Here’s What It Was Like for Civilians.

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The drone flying over Korenevo village, in the Kursk region of Russia that Ukraine invaded in August, recorded a grisly scene: at least seven bodies lying on the road, most of them in civilian clothes.

Destroyed cars were scattered on the roadside, some with corpses in them. One man lay entangled with a red bicycle. Some bodies had decomposed so badly in the summer heat that they had to be identified by their teeth, according to a volunteer who helped recover the remains.

The video and photographs that captured the scene were taken in the early days of Ukraine’s offensive, the first invasion of Russian territory since World War II. The area was heavily contested by Russian and Ukrainian troops, with weapons fired in both directions, so it is impossible to determine who was responsible for the deaths with available information.


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Living on a Volcano’s Edge, Italians Practice for Disaster

A piercing alarm burst from millions of cellphones, a signal to hundreds of thousands of people to pack their bags and flee one of Europe’s most dangerous volcanoes. But most of the Italians who heard it shrugged.

It was around 5 o’clock on a Friday afternoon, and the alert wasn’t announcing a real crisis.

Instead, it was part of a four-day drill this month, coordinated by the Italian civil protection department, to prepare a densely populated area near Naples for the day its residents might face a host of volcanic perils: The ground buckling underfoot. Ribbons of toxic fumes. Exploding boils of molten rock.


A map showing the Phlegraean Fields volcanic complex in Italy. The map highlights Naples and locates three other towns in the area; Bacoli, Baiae and Pozzuoli. Mt. Vesuvius and the ruins at Pompeii are also shown.

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Behind the Tactical Gains Against Iran, a Longer-Term Worry

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When Israeli fighter jets roared off the runways on Friday night, on a thousand-mile run to Iran, they headed for two major sets of targets: the air defenses that protect Tehran, including Iran’s leadership, and the giant fuel mixers that make propellant for Iran’s missile fleet.

Israel’s military leaders, in calls with Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III and other senior American officials, had concluded that taking out the air defenses would make Iran’s leaders fearful that Tehran itself could not be defended. That feeling of vulnerability was already high, after Israel decimated the leadership of Hamas and Hezbollah, Tehran’s proxy forces that could strike Israel, over the past month.

The surprise element for the Iranians was a set of strikes that hit a dozen or so fuel mixers, and took out the air defenses that protected several critical oil and petrochemical refineries, according to a senior U.S. official and two Israeli defense officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal planning.

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Japan’s Long-Governing Party Loses Its Majority

Japan’s governing party lost its majority in parliamentary elections on Sunday, as voters delivered an emphatic rejection of the status quo, throwing Japanese politics into its most uncertain period in years.

The Liberal Democratic Party, which has governed Japan for all but four years since 1955, lost more than 50 seats in an election for the House of Representatives, the influential lower chamber of Parliament, according to the public broadcaster, NHK.

For more than a decade, elections in Japan had taken on a rubber-stamp quality for the conservative Liberal Democrats. This time, a wearied public angered by a long-simmering political finance scandal, rising inflation and the burdens of raising families inflicted a humiliating blow to the party just one month after it anointed Shigeru Ishiba as the new prime minister.

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Iran’s Leaders Stress Their Right to Respond to Israel’s Strikes

Pinned

Isabel Kershner and Mike Ives

Here are the latest developments.

Iran’s leaders stressed on Sunday that they had a right to respond to Israel’s attack but appeared to take a measured tone, which could help ease concerns that the region’s two largest militaries were gearing up for all-out war.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel said that the retaliatory attack on Iran had achieved all of its objectives, as analysts questioned how his government might leverage its recent military gains on the diplomatic front. On Sunday, U.S. and Israeli officials were scheduled to travel to Qatar for meetings aimed at reviving negotiations for a cease-fire in Gaza and the release of hostages held there.

Questions were also swirling in Israel on Sunday about how Iran would respond to the attacks a day earlier. Iranian and Israeli officials told The New York Times that the strikes had destroyed air-defense systems set up to protect important energy sites but avoided the facilities themselves.

Tehran now faces a decision about whether to up the ante. Late Saturday, the Pentagon said Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III told his Israeli counterpart that Iran “should not make the mistake of responding to Israel’s strikes, which should mark the end of this exchange.”

President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran warned that his country would “answer any stupidity with wisdom and strategy.” But Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, has the authority as commander in chief to order strikes on Israel. In his first public comments about the attacks, he said on Sunday that the effect “should neither be magnified nor downplayed,” according to the Iranian state news agency IRNA.

The United Nations Security Council will convene an emergency meeting on Monday afternoon on Israel’s attack on Iran, Security Council diplomats said. The meeting was requested by Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, who sent a letter to the U.N. secretary general saying that Iran “reserves its inherent right to legal and legitimate response to these criminal attacks at the appropriate time,” IRNA reported.

Here’s what else to know:

  • Gaza strikes: The Palestinian Civil Defense said that dozens of people were killed and wounded in Israeli strikes in the town of Beit Lahia in northern Gaza overnight. A spokesman for Gaza’s health ministry, Medhat Abbas, said that communication was “completely cut off” with areas of northern Gaza where Israel’s military has been operating. Israel’s military confirmed it had struck Beit Lahia.

  • Lebanon strikes: An Israeli strike on the coastal city of Sidon in southern Lebanon killed eight people and wounded 25 others, according to the Lebanese health ministry. There was no immediate comment from Israel’s military, which said earlier that it was carrying out “targeted ground raids” in southern Lebanon. The Israeli military also said that Hezbollah had launched around 90 rockets or missiles into Israel from Lebanon in two waves on Sunday, some of which were intercepted, and issued urgent evacuation orders for another 14 villages in southern Lebanon.

  • Cease-fire talks: President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi of Egypt said his country presented a new cease-fire proposal to end the war between Israel and Hamas on Sunday. Under the proposal, which differs sharply from the current basis for negotiations, there would be an initial 48-hour truce. During that time, militant groups in Gaza would release four hostages in exchange for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel, and then Hamas and Israel would hold intensive talks for 10 days to seek a permanent agreement, Mr. El-Sisi said.

A truck that crashed on Sunday into a group of passengers getting off a bus at a stop near the Glilot military base in central Israel killed one person and injured about 30 others. Israel’s police have not determined whether the truck veered into the crowd deliberately or by accident but said in a statement that they were investigating the event as a suspected terrorist attack. Civilians at the scene fatally shot the driver, an Arab citizen of Israel.

An Israeli strike in Beit Lahia killed and injured dozens of people, Gazan officials say.

Israeli strikes on a residential block in Beit Lahia, a town in northern Gaza, killed and wounded dozens of people on Saturday night, according to the Palestinian civil defense, the enclave’s emergency response service.

Details of the attacks were scarce and it was difficult to reach people in northern Gaza by phone. Medhat Abbas, a spokesman for the health ministry in Gaza, said that communication in northern Gaza where the Israeli military has been operating was “completely cut off.”

Israel began a military offensive in the northern part of the enclave several weeks ago, targeting what it said was a regrouped Hamas presence in the area.

The Israeli military confirmed the strike in Beit Lahia in a statement on Sunday, saying the air force had “conducted a precise strike” targeting Hamas fighters, adding that it had taken steps to “mitigate the risk of harming civilians.”

The Palestinian Authority’s news agency Wafa, citing medical sources, said 40 people were killed in the strikes and 80 others were wounded, including women and children.

The situation in northern Gaza has become “unbearable,” Stéphane Dujarric, spokesman for the United Nations secretary general, said Sunday, adding that 60,000 people have been displaced in the past few weeks.

Israel’s renewed military operations have resulted in “widespread devastation and deprivation,” Mr. Dujarric said, which “are making the conditions of life untenable for the Palestinian population there.”

On Friday, Volker Türk, the U.N. high commissioner for human rights based in Geneva, said in a statement: “Unimaginably, the situation is getting worse by the day. The Israeli government’s policies and practices in northern Gaza risk emptying the area of all Palestinians. We are facing what could amount to atrocity crimes, including potentially extending to crimes against humanity.”

Farnaz Fassihi contributed reporting.

The United Nations Security Council will convene an emergency meeting on Monday afternoon on Israel’s attack on Iran, Security Council diplomat said. The meeting was requested by Iran and supported by Russia, China and Algeria. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, asked the U.N. in a letter on Saturday to condemn the attacks.

Egypt presented a new cease-fire proposal to end the war between Israel and Hamas, according to President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi of Egypt. During an initial 48-hour truce, Palestinian militant groups in Gaza would release four hostages in exchange for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel, El-Sisi said at a news conference in Cairo on Sunday. Israel and Hamas would then hold intensive talks for 10 days in an attempt to reach a permanent agreement, El-Sisi said.

The new Egyptian proposal differs sharply from the current basis for negotiations, which would entail a phased cease-fire beginning with a six-week truce. Hamas has so far refused to release any more hostages unless Israel agrees to a deal that includes a permanent cease-fire to end the war in Gaza. Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, has expressed willingness to accept a temporary truce but he has conditioned ending the war on destroying Hamas in the Palestinian enclave.

An Israeli strike on the city of Sidon kills eight people, Lebanon’s health ministry says.

An Israeli strike near the coastal city of Sidon in southern Lebanon killed eight people and wounded 25 others, the country’s health ministry said on Sunday.

The ministry gave no details about the incident, but attacks on Sidon and its immediate vicinity have been rare. The city’s population has ballooned in recent weeks as people have fled there from other parts of the country because of Israel’s invasion.

Israel invaded southern Lebanon this month to fight the militant group Hezbollah, which is Shiite Muslim and backed by Iran. Sidon is largely Sunni Muslim, and Israel has not ordered civilians to evacuate the city, as it has for a number of other towns or city neighborhoods across Lebanon.

There was no immediate comment about the strike from Israel’s military, which said earlier that it was carrying out “targeted ground raids” in southern Lebanon. The military also ordered civilians to evacuate 14 other villages in the area and move north of the Awali River, which runs around 35 miles north of the border with Israel.

More than 1.4 million people, or nearly a quarter of the country’s population, have fled their homes in Lebanon, according to an estimate by the United Nations. The Lebanese authorities have said that more than 2,600 people have been killed since last October, when Hezbollah started firing missiles and drones at Israel in support of the militant group Hamas in Gaza and Israeli forces responded with airstrikes and assassinations.

The Israeli military said Sunday on social media that it struck Hezbollah facilities for manufacturing and storing weapons in the Dahiya, a dense set of neighborhoods south of Beirut that is a Hezbollah stronghold. Israel also said its operations had killed around 70 Hezbollah members over the past day and that on Friday it had killed two local Hezbollah commanders who operated around the town of Bint Jbeil, which is close to the border.

There was no independent confirmation of the statement.

The invasion and Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon have eliminated much of Hezbollah’s top leadership, but they have not stopped the group from launching cross-border attacks.

Israel’s military said that a total of 90 projectiles were fired at Israel on Sunday in two separate waves. It said that some had been intercepted, while a drone strike hit in the Bar-Lev industrial area, about 13 miles south of the border. The statement gave no details of whether it caused any damage.

Officials travel to Qatar in hopes of reviving Gaza cease-fire talks.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that Israel’s retaliatory strikes on Iran this weekend had achieved their objectives, as analysts questioned how his government might leverage its recent military gains on the diplomatic front.

In his first public comments about the strikes on Iran, Mr. Netanyahu said Israel’s forces had severely damaged Iran’s defensive capabilities and its ability to produce the missiles it aims at Israel.

His remarks came as U.S. and Israeli officials were expected in Qatar on Sunday in an effort to revive talks for a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas. Beyond the Iran strikes, Israel’s recent killings of Hamas’s leader in Gaza and the leaders of Hezbollah in Lebanon loomed large over the meetings.

David Barnea, the head of Mossad, Israel’s foreign spy agency, was due to meet in Doha with William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director and lead American negotiator in efforts for a cease-fire in Gaza. Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Qatar’s prime minister and foreign minister, was also expected to participate.

In statements issued before the weekend, Mr. Netanyahu’s office stated that Sunday’s meeting was aimed at advancing several initiatives, including one being promoted by Egypt, which along with Qatar has acted as an intermediary between Israel and Hamas.

An Israeli official familiar with the discussions said the Egyptian proposal involved an initial deal that would see a few hostages released during a short pause in fighting in Gaza. The idea, the official said, would be to get the ball rolling after months of impasse. It would also test Hamas’s decision-making process after the killing earlier this month of the militant group’s leader, Yahya Sinwar.

Later Sunday, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt said the initiative would see four hostages released in exchange for a number of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli custody during a two-day pause in the fighting in Gaza. Speaking at a news conference in Cairo, Mr. el-Sisi presented the idea as a preliminary step leading to talks for a comprehensive cease-fire.

U.S. and Qatari officials have said it was unclear whether Hamas might be willing to re-engage in revived cease-fire negotiations.

Hamas officials have stated repeatedly, however, that any deal would be predicated on the Israeli military’s withdrawal from Gaza and an end to the war there — conditions that Mr. Netanyahu has not been willing to agree to so far. The Israeli authorities have said that at least a third of the 101 hostages still being held in Gaza are dead.

A senior Biden administration official, who briefed reporters soon after Israel’s strikes on Iran, said the United States was “prepared to lead an effort” to end Israel’s war against Hezbollah in Lebanon over the coming days — as well as an effort to finally achieve a cease-fire in Gaza and a return of hostages held in the enclave.

The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters, said the overall contours of those arrangements were in place and that it was “time to bring these deals to a resolution once and for all,” according to an official transcript of the call.

The diplomatic maneuverings came as Israel held state memorial ceremonies on Sunday tied to the Hebrew calendar’s anniversary of the Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on southern Israel that prompted the war.

President Isaac Herzog of Israel, whose role is mostly ceremonial, echoed widespread hopes that the country’s recent military gains might translate into political achievements that could bring more stability to the region.

“The elimination of the arch-terrorist Sinwar and other enemies, and the impressive fighting by the IDF and security forces, have created an opportunity that we must not miss,” Mr. Herzog said at the official memorial for the hundreds of Israeli soldiers killed over the past year, referring to the Israeli military.

Israel’s defense minister, Yoav Gallant, noted that “not every goal can be achieved through military action.”

“Force is not an end in itself,” he said at one of the ceremonies. “When it comes to returning the hostages, we will be required to make painful compromises.”

Nadav Eyal, a prominent Israeli political analyst, wrote on Sunday in Yediot Ahronot, a popular Hebrew daily, that the military “has delivered achievements” but these were not enough on their own.

A substantive victory would be “one in which Israel emerges from the war more secure because the reality beyond the battlefield has changed,” he wrote.

Gabby Sobelman and Myra Noveck contributed reporting.

Iranian officials stress Tehran’s right to respond to Israel’s attack.

Iran’s supreme leader appeared to take a measured tone on Sunday in response to Israel’s strikes on the country, even as Iranian officials stressed that Tehran had a right to retaliate.

Iranian and Israeli officials told The New York Times that strikes early on Saturday had destroyed air-defense systems set up to protect important energy sites in Iran but avoided the facilities themselves. The Israeli attack — retaliation for a recent Iranian missile barrage — raised fears about whether, and how hard, Tehran might strike back.

President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran warned late Saturday that his country would “answer any stupidity with wisdom and strategy.”

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, has the authority as commander in chief to order strikes on Israel. On Sunday, in his first public comments about the attacks, Ayatollah Khamenei said that the effect of the strikes “should neither be magnified nor downplayed,” the Iranian state news agency IRNA, reported. He did not appear to explicitly call for retaliation.

In the meantime, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, has asked the U.N. Security Council to convene an “urgent meeting” and condemn the attacks, IRNA reported. It said that Mr. Araghchi sent a letter to the United Nations secretary general stating that Iran “reserves its inherent right to legal and legitimate response to these criminal attacks at the appropriate time.”

Farnaz Fassihi and Mike Ives contributed reporting.

An Israeli strike on the coastal city of Sidon in southern Lebanon has killed eight people and wounded 25 others, according to the Lebanese health ministry. It did not provide further details. There was no immediate comment about the strike from Israel’s military, which said earlier that it was carrying out “targeted ground raids” in southern Lebanon.

The Palestinian Civil Defense said that dozens of people were killed and wounded in Israeli strikes in the town of Beit Lahia in northern Gaza overnight. It did not provide further details, and when asked about the situation in Beit Lahia a spokesman for Gaza’s health ministry, Medhat Abbas, said that communication with areas of the north where Israel’s military has been operating was “completely cut off.” Israel’s military did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The Israeli military’s Arabic spokesman, Avichay Adraee, on Sunday issued urgent evacuation orders for another 14 villages in southern Lebanon, telling the residents to move north of the Awali River ahead of planned actions by Israeli forces to target Hezbollah facilities in the area.

At least 24 people were injured when a truck crashed into a group of passengers getting off a bus at a stop near the Glilot military base in central Israel, Israel’s police said. It added that civilians at the site shot and “neutralized” the driver of the truck.

Israel is holding official state memorial ceremonies tied to the Hebrew calendar’s anniversary of last year’s Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack on southern Israel.

Flags on government buildings were lowered to half-staff at 6:29 a.m. — the minute that the cross-border assault from Gaza began. Many of the families of the victims of the attack and of the 101 hostages still being held in Gaza marked the anniversary according to the Gregorian calendar on Oct. 7.

President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran, in his first statement about Israel’s attack, offered condolences to the families of the four soldiers killed. He added, “Iran’s enemies must know the warrior people of Iran are fearlessly standing tall to defend their country and will answer any stupidity with wisdom and strategy.”

Israel struck air defenses around critical Iranian energy sites, officials say.

Israel’s attacks on Iran early Saturday destroyed air-defense systems set up to protect several critical oil and petrochemical refineries, as well as systems guarding a large gas field and a major port in southern Iran, according to three Iranian officials and three senior Israeli defense officials.

The sites targeted by Israel, according to the officials, included defenses at the sprawling Bandar Imam Khomeini petrochemical complex, in Khuzestan Province; at the major economic port Bandar Imam Khomeini, adjacent to it; and at the Abadan oil refinery. Air-defense systems were also struck in Ilam Province, at the refinery for the gas field, called Tange Bijar, said the officials, one of them with Iran’s oil ministry.

The Iranian and Israeli officials familiar with the attacks spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence.

Israel’s destruction of the air-defense systems has raised deep alarm in Iran, the three Iranian officials said, as critical energy and economic hubs are now vulnerable to future attacks if the cycle of retaliation between Iran and Israel continues.

“Israel is sending a clear message to us,” said Hamid Hosseini, an expert on Iran’s oil and gas industry and a member of the Iran-Iraq Chamber of Commerce. “This can have very serious economic consequences for Iran, and now that we understand the stakes we need to act wise and not continue the tensions.”

Iran’s military announced that four soldiers working with air defenses were killed in Israel’s attacks. The Iranian media said the casualty numbers would probably increase.

Two of the soldiers were identified as natives of the city of Mahshahr, the closest residential town near the Bandar Imam Khomeini petrochemical complex.

Two Israeli officials said that initial plans, developed immediately after Iran fired waves of ballistic missiles at Israel in early October, included strikes on targets linked to Iran’s energy industry and nuclear project.

But while Israel was planning, the United States urged it not to strike any of Iran’s energy and oil sites or nuclear facilities, fearing that attacks on such valuable sites could draw a heightened Iranian response, destabilize the global economy and set off an all-out regional war that could draw in the United States. In its strikes on Saturday, Israel eventually decided to attack the air defenses around several energy facilities but did not target the facilities themselves, the Israeli officials said.

Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, had repeatedly told the news media, and regional Arab counterparts in diplomatic meetings, that Iran’s energy infrastructure was a red line, and that if attacked Iran would respond forcefully. Mr. Araghchi sent a letter to the United Nations on Saturday urging the condemnation of Israel and calling its attack “unlawful and aggressive” and “against the sovereignty and territorial integrity” of Iran.

The Iranian armed forces issued a statement on Saturday saying that Israel’s attacks had targeted radar air-defense systems in Khuzestan, Ilam and Tehran, causing minor damage. The statement said repairs were underway and that Iranian air defenses had succeeded in neutralizing most of the Israeli missile and drones.

The three Israeli officials said that command-and-control trailers, as well as the radar system, were among the targets struck on Saturday. According to Israel’s assessment, the systems were severely damaged and rendered inoperative. One of the officials said that satellite imagery post-strike would show that Israel hit only the air-defense battery of the Imam Khomeini petrochemical complex, avoiding the nearby industrial complex.

The Iranian military, in its statement, added that Israeli fighter jets had not entered Iran’s airspace and had fired missiles and drones from Iraq’s airspace. The military blamed the United States for allowing Iraqi airspace to be used, and Iran’s mission to the United Nations accused the United States of “complicity in this crime.”

American officials have said the United States played no role in Israel’s attacks against Iran.

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council held an emergency meeting on Saturday, and military commanders briefed its members on the scale of damage and the targets, according to the three Iranian officials. The council discussed how Iran should respond but no decision has been made, they said.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, has the authority to order strikes on Israel as the commander in chief. He is expected to make public comments about the attacks on Sunday.

In addition to striking the defenses around energy sites, Iranian and Israeli officials said, Israel’s attacks have effectively taken out four S-300 air-defense systems that Iran had purchased from Russia. Israel disabled one in April in an attack on a military base in Isfahan Province and three on Saturday, at Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport and the Malad missile base on the capital’s outskirts.

“This looks like a potential preamble to a much more effective strike against Iran’s infrastructure and even nuclear sites,” said Ali Vaez, the Iran director of International Crisis Group. “Iranians don’t have the capacity to replace these systems in a timely manner, which renders the country much more vulnerable in future tit for tats.”

In addition to the air-defense systems, three major missile manufacturing bases — Falagh, Shaid Ghadiri and Abdol Fath — belonging to the Revolutionary Guards Corps were also attacked, according to the Iranian and Israeli officials. The Parchin and Parand military sites were also attacked with drones, the officials said.

Israeli officials said the attacks had set back Iran’s ability to build missiles, but Iranian officials disputed this, saying the damage was minor and the setbacks short term.

The energy facilities whose defenses were struck are critical to Iran’s ailing economy, which has struggled with U.S. sanctions, inflation and other problems for years. Khuzestan Province, in southern Iran, is home to most of the country’s oil and gas fields. The Bandar Imam Petrochemical Complex is Iran’s largest such compound, generating millions of tons of petroleum-based products annually for export. The Abadan refinery is Iran’s largest oil refinery near the Persian Gulf, with a capacity of 360,000 barrels of crude oil per day.

Israel’s targeting of air-defense systems around the energy sites was similar to its attack in April, when it struck the radar system of an S-300 air-defense system near Natanz, a city in central Iran that is critical to the country’s nuclear program. The April strike came in response to Iran’s launching several hundred missiles and drones at Israel, a barrage that was itself a response to an Israeli airstrike on Iran’s embassy compound in Damascus.

Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, sent a letter to the United Nations on Saturday calling Israel’s attack “unlawful and aggressive,” and “against the sovereignty and territorial integrity” of Iran. Mr. Araghchi asked the U.N. to take a “firm stance and condemn” Israel.

Israeli lawmakers say the country’s attack on Iran didn’t go far enough.

Israel’s attack on Saturday on Iranian military sites was closely watched abroad amid concerns that the region was sliding toward a full-scale war. At home, leading politicians — both inside and outside Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition — lamented the strikes as not aggressive enough.

Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel’s hard-line national security minister, for example, said the Israeli strikes on Iran should serve as an “opening blow.”

With Iranian proxies like Hezbollah dramatically weakened, more hawkish Israelis had argued that they were being handed an opportunity to move forcefully against their regional archenemy, Iran. Some proposed attacking the Iranian nuclear program, long a source of existential dread for Israel.

After Iran launched a wave of ballistic missiles on Israel on Oct. 1, the Biden administration urged Israel to moderate its response and avoid targeting either oil or nuclear sites, which U.S. officials feared would set off a wider war — one that would ultimately draw in the United States.

Yair Lapid, the centrist leader of Israel’s parliamentary opposition, criticized Mr. Netanyahu’s government for ultimately deciding on targets that aligned with Washington’s requests. Mr. Netanyahu’s office later denied that Israel had not struck Iranian oil and nuclear facilities because of U.S. pressure.

“The decision not to target strategic and economic targets in Iran was a mistake,” Mr. Lapid said. “We could and should have made Iran pay a much higher price.”

Mr. Ben-Gvir had also criticized Israel’s response to a direct Iranian attack in April — a strike on an antiaircraft battery — as too feeble.

Saturday’s attacks should be followed by further action aimed at “damaging Iran’s strategic assets,” he said. “That must be the next stage.”

Avigdor Lieberman, a hawkish ally-turned-critic of Mr. Netanyahu who leads the right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu party, similarly slammed the Israeli government for not going far enough.

“Unfortunately, it seems that instead of exacting a real price, the Israeli government is satisfying itself with operations that are purely for show and public relations. They are buying quiet rather than seeking clear victory,” Mr. Lieberman said.

As of Saturday night, Mr. Netanyahu had yet to make any public remarks on the attack, although his office had issued statements denying several Israeli news media reports purporting to provide details of the strike.

A handful of politicians — including ones who rarely align with Mr. Netanyahu — did suggest that they agreed with the government’s strategy. Yair Golan, a left-wing politician and retired general, said the Israeli response had most likely damaged Iran’s military capabilities “without dragging us into an inevitable war of attrition.”

The Israeli military announced that it would loosen restrictions on gatherings in parts of the country’s north. The decision to ease Israel’s civil defense regulations suggests that the Israeli authorities likely do not expect an imminent counterattack by Iran.

Shortly after President Biden held a call on Saturday morning with Vice President Harris and his national security team on Israel’s strikes in Iran, he told reporters, “I hope that this is the end,” adding that Israel “didn’t hit anything other than military targets.”

In a statement, the White House said that during the call the president “directed that every effort be taken to protect our forces and help defend Israel against any potential responses from Iran.”

The Iranian army has raised the death toll from Israel’s strikes to four soldiers, IRNA, Iran’s state news agency, reported. Earlier, Iran’s military said that two soldiers had been killed.

‘The vibe is not normal’: The Israeli attack puts Iranians on edge.

Iranians voiced a sense of anxiety and uncertainty on Saturday after a round of retaliatory strikes by Israel on their country, but some said they felt a dim hope about what may lie ahead.

“Today at work, everyone was speaking of the attacks,” said Soheil, a 37-year-old engineer who lives in the central city of Isfahan. His colleagues saw some reason for hope that a wider war could be averted, given that Israel attacked only military targets on Saturday, he added.

“It seems that people are hopeful that soon the situation will be back to normal,” he told The New York Times when reached by telephone.

“The vibe is not normal, though, at the moment,” he said. “People are experiencing different emotions: Some are worried, some indifferent and some are even happy, because they believe that Israel attacks will humble the regime a bit.”

Soheil, like other Iranians reached by The Times on Saturday, asked not to be identified by his full name for fear of retribution.

Iranian officials and the state news media played down the Israeli attack, calling the damage “limited” and claiming that Iran’s air defense had intercepted the strikes.

Israel did not strike sensitive sites related to Iran’s nuclear program or oil production facilities in retaliation for the large barrage of ballistic missiles that Iran fired at Israel this month. And while the attack marked a new escalation between the two archrivals, it appeared to be calibrated to stop short of all-out war.

After the attack was completed, Iran did not immediately threaten to retaliate, but it did say that it had the right to do so.

On state television on Saturday, reporters around Tehran, the nation’s capital, cheerfully proclaimed that all was well. Live shots showed a vegetable market and morning rush-hour traffic.

But for some residents, it was a night of little sleep and high anxiety as the sounds of explosions kept them up.

Maryam Naraghi, an Iranian journalist, said she had heard “the sound of bombs and explosions” from her home in Tehran.

Houri, a 42-year-old mother of two in Tehran, said in a telephone interview that after a night of loud explosions and consoling her children, she was anxious about what lay ahead for Iranians, many of them having grown weary of conflict and years of economic hardship.

She said her husband had stayed glued to satellite television and social media all night for updates on the attacks because Iran’s state news media offered little information.

Yashar Soltani, a journalist, said he had woken up in Tehran to the sounds of an attack that seemed to be nearby.

“I saw very big lights in the sky,” he said.

The attack on military bases and other targets in Ilam, Khuzestan and Tehran Provinces lasted only a few hours and was over by about 5 a.m., Israeli officials said.

As the sun rose on Saturday, people in Iran tried to go on with their day as usual, hoping that a wider war could be avoided.

Shadi, a 41-year-old living in Tehran, said she had not heard any of the explosions overnight.

“We people of Iran are victims of all these political games,” she said. “We have experienced so much that we all have become somehow numb.”

Farnaz Fassihi contributed reporting.

News analysis

In deciding whether to retaliate, Iran faces a dilemma.

Iran faces a dilemma after the Israeli strikes on Saturday.

If it retaliates, it risks further escalation at a time when its economy is struggling, its allies are faltering, its military vulnerability is clear and its leadership succession is in play.

If it does not, it risks looking weak to those same allies, as well as to more aggressive and powerful voices at home.

Iran is already in the middle of a regional war. Since the Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7, 2023, Israel has moved swiftly to damage the militant group in Gaza and other Iranian proxies, including Hezbollah, the Houthis and its allies in Syria and Iraq.

These groups represent Iran’s “forward defense” against Israel, the heart of the nation’s deterrence. They have been badly weakened by the Israeli military’s tough response since Oct. 7, which weakens Iran, too, and makes it more vulnerable.

Iranian officials have made it clear that they do not want a direct war with Israel. They want to preserve their allies, the so-called ring of fire around Israel.

After Israel struck Iran, Tehran on Saturday publicly played down the effect of the attack and showed ordinary programming on television. It did not immediately vow a major retaliation, but simply restated its right to do so.

Adding to its reticence, Iran faces enormous economic problems, making it wary of an extended and costly war with Israel. It has been heavily penalized by the United States and Europe over its nuclear program, forcing it to move ever closer to Russia and China.

The Islamic regime is also dealing with serious domestic dissent over rising prices and its harsh rule, which play into any calculation for retaliation. The regime is both committed to the destruction of Israel, but also to preserving its power in a sophisticated country in which it is increasingly unpopular.

That is one reason, analysts believe, the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, allowed the election of a more moderate president, Masoud Pezeshkian, after the harder-line Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash. Against the backdrop of domestic unrest, Mr. Pezeshkian has pushed for new talks on Iran’s nuclear program in return for a lifting of economic sanctions, outreach that most likely could take place only with the permission of the supreme leader.

The nuclear program is its own dilemma. The damage to allies over the past year, as well as its clear technical and military weakness compared with Israel, will put more pressure on Iran to advance its nuclear program and go for a bomb.

Iran is already within weeks of creating bomb-quality uranium, and there are strong voices in Iran arguing that the best deterrent against Israel and the United States is to have nuclear weapons, as Israel itself possesses. But Iran also knows that a series of American presidents — including Donald J. Trump, who is running neck and neck against Vice President Kamala Harris in the U.S. presidential race — have vowed to prevent Iran from attaining an operational nuclear weapon.

Complicating matters, a quiet battle has emerged over the succession of Ayatollah Khamenei, who is 85. With Mr. Raisi gone, there is internal disquiet over the possibility that Ayatollah Khamenei’s second son, Mojtaba, 55, might succeed him. The powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps will have an important say and is considered more willing to confront Israel.

Whatever Iran’s ultimate calculation, hoping to avoid a larger war does not mean it can.

Both Israel and Iran are eager to restore the so-called deterrence effect that they believe comes with retaliatory strikes. As they see it, it enhances their ability to intimidate each other and allows them to limit each other’s power, in what Jeremy Shapiro, a former American diplomat, has called their “geopolitical manhood.”

This past week, as might be expected, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said that “in the event of an Israeli attack, the shape of our response will be proportionate and calculated.”

These back-and-forth attacks, however carefully calibrated, can easily spill over into wider violence if a hospital or a school is hit, even by accident, and causes significant civilian casualties.

As Daniel C. Kurtzer and Aaron David Miller wrote this week in Foreign Policy, “a spiraling tit for tat would likely prompt the Israelis to expand their target set, at a minimum, to include economic infrastructure.” From there, they added, “it’s certainly possible to imagine a regional escalation, including Iranian attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure.”

But Iran may also choose to heed American and British advice to call an end to this round of retaliations as negotiations for cease-fires in Gaza and Lebanon gather pace.

Ali Vaez, the Iran project director for the International Crisis Group, said on X that Israel’s response was “considerably more robust” than the one in April.

Israel struck Iranian air defenses and missile manufacturing sites in three provinces, while also attacking targets in Iraq and Syria, according to Israel officials. But it avoided key infrastructure, energy and nuclear sites.

The key question, Mr. Vaez said, was simple: “Whether Tehran will absorb the hit and try to draw a line under this exchange or up the ante again with a counter-response.”

For Iran, the argument for climbing down the escalatory ladder is a strong one. But there are powerful voices like the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, which regularly press for a more aggressive response.

The desire for Washington and Israel, too, is that the conflict with Iran “becomes once again a shadow war and not an overt war,” said David Makovsky, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “In today’s world that would be an achievement. You don’t end the enmity but bring it under control.”

Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East Program at Chatham House, said that the U.S. presidential election in November is also a factor. “If Iran wants to avoid a broader escalatory conflict in advance of the uncertain U.S. election, it must take the hit and play a longer strategic game focused on diplomatic outreach to the region and openings should they emerge from the West,” she said.

By playing down the effect of the strike and pressing for a cease-fire, she said, “Iran will try to turn the tables on Israel and translate its military weakness into diplomatic openings.”

A correction was made on 

Oct. 27, 2024

An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated what is known about the current health of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He was said to have been ill in 2022.


When we learn of a mistake, we acknowledge it with a correction. If you spot an error, please let us know at nytnews@nytimes.com.Learn more

Murals in Tehran Offer Tributes and Threats Against Israel

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Farnaz Fassihi

As tension between Israel and Iran has escalated in recent months, a wall in central Tehran has become a message board for telegraphing threats against Israel.

The messages appear on huge murals on the side of an office building in Palestine Square belonging to a government agency and change often. They are written in both Hebrew and Persian to make sure nothing is lost in translation. And as the crisis between the two countries has deepened, the rhetoric has become sharper.

In January, the message to Israel read, “Prepare your coffins,” with the backdrop of missiles being fired. In April, text on the Star of David read, “Die from this fear.” Last week, a photo collage of hostages still being held in Gaza by Hamas, the militant group which Iran supports, carried a grim statement: “None of the hostages will be released.”

After Israel carried out a retaliatory wave of airstrikes targeting Iranian military sites and air defenses protecting energy facilities on Saturday, the mural changed again. It now says, in Hebrew: “Another storm is coming.”

The Center for Islamic Propaganda, an institution that is under control of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, oversees the murals, which appear on an office building owned by the center.

Supporters of Iran’s government often gather for protests in Palestine Square donning checkered kaffiyehs and waving the flags of Palestine and Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia that Iran also backs. A tent is set up to collect aid donations for Palestinians and Lebanese.

In 2021, long before Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel and the war that followed in Gaza, Iran set up a digital clock in the square that counts down the days until it purports Israel will be destroyed. Here is a collection of some of the murals that have appeared in recent months.

April 3

Sometimes the mural commemorates a senior Iranian military commander or the leader of one of the militant groups aligned with Iran, a network known as the “axis of resistance.” Those groups include Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. This mural shows Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a veteran of the Quds Forces, the external branch of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responsible for operations in Lebanon and Syria. He was killed in an Israeli airstrike on Iran’s embassy compound in Damascus in April.

Iran vowed to retaliate against Israel’s attack on its embassy compound in Damascus. Crowds of government supporters gathered at Palestine Square chanting, “Revenge!” As Israel awaited an Iranian attack, the mural depicted a Star of David and missiles raining down. A message in Hebrew read, “Die from this fear.”

April 15

Iran fired at least 300 drones and missiles at Israel on April 14 in retaliation for the Damascus strike. Supporters celebrated the attack with fireworks and by waving giant flags of Iran and Palestine. The mural was promptly updated, showing a burning Israeli flag with the words, “The next slap will be harder.”

July 31

Israel assassinated Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July on the eve of the inauguration ceremony of Iran’s new president. Mr. Haniyeh was killed at a highly secure guest compound run by the Quds Forces. Israel’s brazen assassination shook Iran’s leaders and humiliated the country’s intelligence and security apparatuses. The mural with Mr. Haniyeh’s picture reads, “Wait for a fierce revenge.”

Aug. 23

When Hamas named Yahya Sinwar, a longtime Hamas military leader, as its top official, replacing Mr. Haniyeh in August, Iran celebrated with a large profile picture of Mr. Sinwar. The message read, “Martyr of Islam, Commander of Jihad.”

Oct. 19

In mid-October, Israeli soldiers killed Mr. Sinwar on the battlefield in Gaza. For Iran, it was another devastating blow after the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut a few weeks earlier. The mural depicting Mr. Sinwar reads, “The storm of Sinwar will continue.” It is a reference to Al-Aqsa Storm, the Arabic term used by Hamas for its Oct. 7 attacks on Israel.

Oct. 19

A digital clock in Palestine Square, set up in 2021, counts down the several thousand days remaining until Israel will purportedly be destroyed. Next to it is a tent for collecting aid donations for Palestinians in Gaza and pictures of slain Iranian commanders and leaders of regional militant groups.

Oct. 23

Iran launched about 180 ballistic missiles at Israel in October. As it awaited Israel’s expected retaliation earlier this month, Iranian officials said they were prepared for war with Israel and that the country’s response would depend on the scope and severity of Israel’s attacks. Last week, the mural took a dark tone. It showed a collage of photographs of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza with words, “No hostages will be freed.”

Oct. 27

Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran early Saturday marked a new escalation between the two archrivals, although it appeared to be calibrated to stop short of the all-out war the region fears. Iran’s leaders stressed on Sunday that they had a right to respond to Israel’s attack but appeared to take a measured tone, which could help ease those concerns. The mural, however, changed over the weekend, and now states: “Another storm is coming.”

How Years of Government Failures Caused a Flood ‘Worse Than Boko Haram’

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Ruth Maclean and

Ruth Maclean, Ismail Alfa and Fati Abubakar reported this article from flooded areas of Maiduguri and the Alau dam in northeastern Nigeria.

For years, villagers who lived near the Alau dam in northeastern Nigeria had told government officials that the structure was broken and the reservoir behind it too full.

But in early September, after heavy rains, a half-dozen officials stood overlooking the brimming reservoir, their feet squelching in the mud as they tried to reassure Nigerians that the dam was in good condition.

“The dam is not broken,” Alhaji Bukar Tijani, the government official leading the delegation, said that day. “People should not be afraid.”


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