The New York Times 2024-11-01 00:13:46


Raging Waters, Abandoned Cars, Layers of Mud: A Grim Scene After Spanish Floods

When some of the worst flash floods in decades in eastern Spain hit, Diego Hernandez was passing the city of Valencia on his way to his mother’s funeral.

As he and his wife drove on Tuesday night, a thin stream of muddy water started to appear under their tires. Soon, it was almost three feet high and nearing the top of their seats. Within seconds, another car piled on top of theirs.

The couple fled their vehicle, initially hanging onto a tree as trash cans, car wheels, sofas and chairs streamed by in the raging floodwaters.

“It was like an apocalypse,” he said.

They were hardly alone. Thousands of people found themselves trapped in one way or another — in cars, in trucks and in homes — as heavy rainfall pounded southern Spain this week.

The death toll jumped to 158 people on Thursday. Others are still missing, but how many remains unclear. Rescuers feared finding more bodies, said Margarita Robles, Spain’s defense minister, as they dug deeper into the mud.

Some areas received anywhere from a month’s to a year’s worth of rain in a single day, or even in eight hours. Rain continued to fall overnight and into Thursday morning in eastern and southern Spain, as cities and towns in eastern Spain surveyed the damage.

In Castelló, the country’s weather agency warned that rivers and streams could overflow. Some districts of Valencia and Catalonia remained on high alert, with more rain expected during the day, the weather agency said.

Thousands of households were still without electricity or a phone connection, the authorities said. More than a dozen municipalities reported having no clean drinking water, emergency services in Valencia said.

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez traveled to Valencia and visited some of the worst affected areas, after the government declared three days of national mourning. His opponent, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, also visited the areas.

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“We are not going to leave the people of Valencia on their own,” Mr. Sánchez said after visiting an emergency coordination center there. He also urged people to stay home, “because in that way we will be saving lives.”

Members of the Emergency Military Unit, civil guards and police officers were participating in the search-and-rescue operation, Mr. Sánchez said. Vehicles including helicopters were aiding the effort.

King Felipe VI of Spain also instructed the Royal Guard to join the search-and-rescue operation. “All of us join this shared pain,” the king said.

At least 155 people had been confirmed dead in the Valencia region alone, as the authorities continued searching for and identifying victims, the emergency coordination center in Valencia said in a statement. Regional governments in Castilla-La Mancha and Andalusia said a total of three more people had died in those regions.

In and around the city of Valencia, water had gushed into ground-floor apartments, trapping some people. It flooded shopping centers, dog shelters and even a nursing home, killing some of its residents. Other victims died in places where it did not rain, swept away by roaring waters.

On Wednesday, as coroners worked to identify the bodies, some of the hardest-hit villages remained cut off, the roads and bridges that connected them to the rest of the country broken or inundated by the flash floods.

Dozens of roads remain closed, including major highways, the Civil Guard said. Three of Valencia’s subway lines have collapsed, and train service, including a high-speed link to Madrid, may be suspended for as long as three weeks, said Óscar Puente, the transport minister.

Assessing the damage in Valencia, Mr. Puente said “the entire regional road network is seriously damaged.”

As communities remain cut off, the authorities have deployed security forces to guard against looting. The national police said they had arrested 39 people in an operation in which the authorities recovered “a multitude of stolen items.”

Thousands of trucks and cars were abandoned on streets and highways, buried in thick layers of mud, as underpasses were filled with water. Their owners were stranded in makeshift shelters, unable to make it home. Dead bodies were trapped in some vehicles, the Transport Ministry said.

Victims of the flooding in Valencia will receive a minimum of 6,000 euros, about $6,500, as part of a €250 million aid package announced by Carlos Mazon, the leader of the Valencia region.

Toni Zamorano, 59, sat on the ground outside a basketball hall in Valencia that had been turned into a dormitory. He was driving home when his car filled with water on Tuesday night. He pushed his door open and jumped into the water. Within a few minutes, he saw that his car had been completely covered in water and was floating away.

“I started swimming, walking, swimming,” he said. He was alone on a stretch of flooded highway, with the water up to his chest, as sofas, computers and cars floated by.

“Cars were like boats,” he said. “I honestly thought it was all over.”

Mr. Zamorano lives in the village of Sedavi, a few kilometers south of Valencia. He has not been able to make it home yet.

“I don’t know what I’m going to find,” he said. “My whole town must be devastated, and I don’t know what my home is like.”

Mr. Hernandez, 56, did not make it to his mother’s funeral. His wife eventually managed to cling onto a lamppost, but he did not, and was carried away. He tried to grab floating tires and poles until he managed to enter a bus that was stuck in the stream. The upper part of the bus was still dry, and he took off his wet clothes and wrapped himself in its curtains.

At about 4 a.m. on Wednesday, rescuers came for him. For hours, he had no idea what had happened to his wife.

He did not have his cellphone, and none of the emergency workers he spoke to had any information. Mr. Hernandez and his wife have known each other since they were both children, and they had been married nearly 30 years.

Finally, on Wednesday morning, he called his brother, and got the news he was waiting for: She was alive. She also blamed him for not holding onto the lamppost as she did, and drifting away in the current, his brother said.

If she was complaining about him “It’s a sign she is doing well,” Mr. Hernandez said with a laugh, as he stood smoking outside a sports hall while wearing a sweater from the local basketball team that the rescuers had given him.

Inside, the eight courts had been turned into a dormitory, with dozens of mattresses laid geometrically below the backboards still bearing a score from the last game played there, 24.

In Madrid, Ana de la Cuadra frantically exchanged text messages with members of her family, who were trapped in Catarroja, a town in southern Valencia.

“They’ve warned that another wave of water may come,” Cristina de la Cuadra, her sister, said via text messages, accompanied by videos of rivers water gushing down the street. “We are in bad shape, without water or electricity. We don’t when we will be able to leave the house.”

Soon after, she switched off her phone to conserve its battery.

Mark A. Walsh contributed reporting.

What Sank the Tech Tycoon’s ‘Unsinkable’ Yacht?


The seas were calm when the Bayesian, the $40 million superyacht of the British tech mogul Michael Lynch, dropped anchor off Sicily.

It was a celebratory voyage. But before dawn, a storm blew in.

Lightning crackled. Winds neared hurricane strength. The sky dumped a blinding torrent. The yacht drifted out of control. Then it was gone.

A New York Times investigation discovered that the Bayesian’s most striking feature — its extra-tall mast and the engineering to accommodate it — made the yacht vulnerable to capsizing.

The Bayesian was an outlier. All the other boats in the same series, from the same Italian manufacturer, had two masts instead of one.

Technical documents obtained by The Times and computer models show the yacht was susceptible to being knocked over in a storm and would sink quickly.

Fifteen survivors, bloodied and broken, made it to a life raft. But seven died as the Bayesian plunged to the bottom, where divers have searched for answers.

It all happened so fast.

Karsten Borner was planted on the halfdeck of his sailboat in the slanting rain. A grizzled mariner who had survived many storms, he was anchored in the same cove as Mr. Lynch’s yacht, at the same time, as the squall blew in during the early hours of Aug. 19.

Luckily, he was already awake. As the wind picked up, he and his crew scurried around closing hatches, clearing the decks and firing up the engines to keep his boat steady.

He couldn’t see much, but in flashes of lightning, he kept catching glimpses of Mr. Lynch’s long, sleek sloop bobbing behind him. It was only a few hundred feet away and its super-tall aluminum mast — one of the tallest ever made — was lit up with bright white lights, swaying in the wind.

Then he lost sight of it. The rain fell like gravel, drawing a curtain around his boat. When he looked up again, he was stunned. The Bayesian was disappearing, at a very odd angle, into the sea.

In the weeks since, Mr. Borner, who has sailed for more than half a century, still can’t believe the yacht sank in front of him. There weren’t any big waves that night, he said. Both boats were close to shore. His own sailboat — a converted tugboat built in East Germany 66 years ago — weathered the same squall just fine. And that other craft was a superyacht of the superrich, gleaming blue, 184 feet long and drawing stares wherever it went.

“It’s a mystery,” Mr. Borner said.

That mystery has rippled around the globe as several investigations into the tragedy unfold. It has vexed maritime experts and compounded the grief of family and friends of the seven people who perished, including Mr. Lynch and his teenage daughter, Hannah, whose bodies were found trapped below deck.

The investigations turn on three central questions: Why did the Bayesian, which now lies 160 feet at the bottom of the Mediterranean, sink so fast? Did the yacht have any design flaws? Did the captain or crew make any fatal mistakes?

The Bayesian was a one-of-a-kind sailboat, built by Perini Navi, a famous Italian yacht maker. The company says the group of 10 superyachts that the Bayesian belonged to was “the most successful series of large sailing yachts ever conceived.”

But the Bayesian was different. Its original buyer — a Dutch businessman, not the Lynches — insisted on a single, striking mast that would be taller than just about any other mast in the world, according to the Italian yacht maker and three people with detailed knowledge of how this boat was built.

That decision resulted in major engineering consequences that ultimately left the boat significantly more vulnerable than many comparable superyachts, The Times investigation has found.

— More than a dozen naval architects, engineers and other experts consulted by The Times found glaring weaknesses in the Bayesian’s design that they said could have contributed to the disaster.

— Basic design choices, like the two tall doors on the side of the deck, increased the Bayesian’s chances of taking on dangerous amounts of water if high winds pushed the boat over toward its side, several naval architects said.

— Witness and survivor accounts revealed how this deadly sequence unfolded in real time: The yacht fell completely on its side and sank within minutes.

Seemingly small details on any boat — like how close air vents are to the waterline, or where a ship’s ballast is placed in the hull — might not sound decisive on their own. But when taken together, experts said, they appear to have compromised this vessel.

Such built-in vulnerabilities may not have been solely responsible for the yacht’s sinking, of course. The storm’s unexpected ferocity definitely played a part in the calamitous stew of events. Italian investigators are also looking hard at the actions of the Bayesian’s captain and crew.

Giovanni Costantino, the chief executive of the Italian Sea Group, the company that owns Perini Navi, said that when operated properly, the Bayesian was “unsinkable.” He maintains that the yacht was carefully engineered to survive bad storms, and he has put the blame for the tragedy squarely on the crew, accusing them of making a chain of fatal errors.

“I know, all the crew knows, that they did not do what they should have done,” he said. (Crew members have not revealed much, saying they are under a “gag order.”)

Mr. Costantino said the design was not at fault and that the towering mast, which stood 237 feet tall, had not created “any kind of problem.”

“The ship was an unsinkable ship,” he said. “I say it, I repeat it.”

The world of superyachts is incredibly opaque, the exclusive realm of some of the richest people on the planet, and exactly how these multimillion dollar boats are designed, approved and owned remain closely guarded secrets.

Making sure a superyacht is fit for the seas is a job left to a network of private companies and public agencies, and the Bayesian’s design was approved by the American Bureau of Shipping and the British Maritime and Coastguard Agency.

All the attention this tragedy has received could result in a closer look at yachting regulations. Several naval engineers in different countries who have gained access to the Bayesian’s documents say that as yachts have become more elaborate and subject to owners’ whims, others may be in danger as well.

The Bayesian’s technical documents show just how vulnerable it was. Even without major errors by the crew, the ship could have sunk in a storm that other boats survived, engineers say.

“We can look at it in hindsight and say they were in the wrong place at the wrong time. No, that’s not true,” said Tad Roberts, a Canadian naval architect who has nearly 40 years of experience designing boats, including superyachts.

“This boat had definite shortcomings that kind of uniquely made it vulnerable to what happened.”

The Victory Voyages

A cruise on the Bayesian was a voyage into luxury. The days were typically warm, sunny and calm, and finished off with plates of fresh langoustine and sumptuous chocolate. Hours would pass lounging on sun chairs, swimming in the sea or maybe taking out a kayak while the Bayesian crew, in branded polo shirts, watched vigilantly from the deck.

“It felt like a beautiful hotel that was floating on water,” remembers Abbie VanSickle, a New York Times reporter who was invited aboard in July because her husband, Jonathan Baum, was part of Mr. Lynch’s legal defense team.

Mr. Lynch had been acquitted in June in a criminal case in which he was accused of fraudulently inflating the value of his software company when he sold it to Hewlett-Packard for $11 billion. He could have been sent to prison for years. To celebrate his win — and his freedom — he asked friends and lawyers to cruise the Mediterranean with him.

Mr. Lynch seemed proud that his boat had one of the world’s tallest masts — a little booklet in her cabin even said as much, Ms. VanSickle remembered. Whenever they chugged into a harbor, she said, “people would take photos of it constantly because it was so crazy-looking in comparison to other boats.”

Most of the time, though, the Bayesian operated like a motorboat, powered by two enormous diesel engines. During her five-day voyage, Ms. VanSickle said they sailed only once, for just a few hours. But when they did, the boat moved through the water so smoothly, she said, it felt like they were “gliding.”

A few weeks after Ms. VanSickle got off and returned to her life as a reporter in Washington, Mr. Lynch welcomed aboard his next batch of guests. This was the second celebratory voyage, beginning in mid-August, and Mr. Lynch had planned to get back to London, where he lived, around Aug. 20.

Among the 12 passengers were Mr. Lynch; his wife, Angela Bacares; their 18-year-old daughter, Hannah, who was soon off to Oxford; one of his lead lawyers, Chris Morvillo, and his wife, Neda Nassiri, who designed handcrafted jewelry; Jonathan Bloomer, an international banker and trusted adviser, and his wife, Judy, a psychotherapist celebrated for her charity work.

Mr. Lynch also invited some younger colleagues, including a couple who brought a baby on board. The crew was led by James Cutfield, an experienced New Zealand sailor, backed up by a first mate, a ship engineer, several deckhands and hostesses, totaling 10 in all.

Mr. Lynch was on the rebound, fired up about the possibility of starting a nonprofit to help exonerate people wrongly accused of crimes, said Sir David Davis, a friend and prominent conservative British politician.

Mr. Lynch sent Sir David a text message offering the choice of lunch or dinner in London on Aug. 22, when he was back.

An Unanticipated Storm

The Mediterranean Sea was flat on Aug. 18. But bad weather was moving south, from Naples toward Sicily. The Italian Air Force’s Meteomar forecast warned of scattered thunderstorms, gusts of wind and a rough sea. Several yacht captains said the weather warning was far from specific or extraordinary.

Mr. Borner, the captain who for decades has been running cruises and diving excursions on his old sailboat, the Sir Robert Baden Powell, was finishing up his own trip, picking his way west along the Sicilian coast.

The wind was blowing from the northwest and Mr. Borner figured that the curvature of Sicily’s rugged coastline at Porticello, a small fishing village built around a cove, would shelter him. He arrived in the cove that afternoon, went ashore with his guests and grabbed some pizza.

“It was a nice evening,” he remembered.

While they were in town, the Bayesian chugged into the same cove. It dropped anchor at 9:35 p.m., about a third of a mile from land. As Mr. Borner went to sleep around 11, the night was clear. The lights of the Bayesian’s mast glowed behind him.

At midnight on Aug. 19, the Italian Coast Guard put out a warning for a northwesterly Gale Force 8, a serious storm in which winds could reach 46 miles per hour. But the gale was predicted to hit hundreds of miles from Sicily.

Around 3 a.m., Mr. Borner woke up to help some of his passengers catch an early flight from Palermo, Sicily’s biggest city. But as the winds picked up rapidly, whipping the cove into a frothy chop, he scratched his plan to go ashore.

He and his crew shut the portholes and skylights and started the engine, to keep the bow pointed into the wind and prevent the boat from being hit on its side.

On the Bayesian, a young deckhand, Matthew Griffiths, later told the authorities that when the wind hit 20 knots, he woke up the captain, according to a person close to the crew (who said that neither of them was allowed to speak publicly). The captain then gave the order to wake up others, the person said.

At 3:51 a.m., the Bayesian started to drift — first 80 meters one way, then 80 meters another, its data transmitter shows. Maritime experts said this meant it was being blown around and probably dragging its anchor. It’s unclear whether the engines had been started.

At 4:02 a.m., a camera mounted on a boat in Porticello’s cove shows bright blue flashes of lightning. Three minutes later, another at a Porticello cafe captures the wind tearing down deck umbrellas. So much rain hits one of the cameras, it looks as if it’s being blasted with a hose.

Mr. Borner estimated that the wind gusts reached 60 knots, or nearly 70 miles an hour — just below hurricane strength — and said they had pushed his boat onto its side about 15 degrees, a serious lean but nothing close to capsizing.

Reports immediately after the disaster raised the possibility that the Bayesian had been hit by a tornado-like disturbance called a waterspout, but the authorities don’t think that happened. Still, the wind was doing something dangerous: It was changing direction.

According to a nearby weather station, it was blowing west-southwest then southwest, then north-northwest. This increased the chances of getting ambushed by a random gust that could slam into the side of a boat, which can tilt even a big vessel.

A third video shows the Bayesian rocking back and forth and beginning to lean. Then the lights on its giant mast blink out — all but the top one, which was powered by a battery.

By 4:06 a.m., the rain has turned into a blinding cascade. That same minute, the Bayesian’s location signal cuts out. Mr. Borner’s crew squinted through the nearly impenetrable haze of sea spray and rain and spotted a large object in the water. They first thought it was a reef.

“But I knew there was no reef,” Mr. Borner said.

It was the Bayesian, they now believe, knocked onto its side.

“Two Minutes” to Tragedy

At 4:34 a.m., a red emergency flare, bright as a meteor, shot into the sky. The storm had passed, and Mr. Borner and his first mate jumped into a small boat, zooming across the black water.

First they saw cushions floating. Then a flashing light. Then a life raft built for 12 packed with 15 people, bloodied and soaked to the skin, including a baby.

One person had a cut on the head, another on his chest. Some had already been bandaged. They were cold, wet and dazed. They were too shocked, Mr. Borner said, to say what happened.

As he loaded the survivors into his boat and began to head back to the Sir Robert, one woman pleaded with him not to leave.

“Please,” she told him. “Continue searching.”

Some people were still missing.

Mr. Borner decided to unload the survivors onto the Sir Robert, then send his small boat back. His crew gave them blankets and dry clothes. Some survivors were so shaken they needed to be led below deck by hand.

Nobody said much, Mr. Borner remembered.

One man told him: “I was the captain of this.”

Another said the boat had “sunk in two minutes.”

The woman who had begged him to keep searching sat huddled on the deck.

“Are you OK?” Mr. Borner asked her.

“No,” she replied. “I am not OK at all.’’

Mr. Borner said he later realized it was Angela Bacares, wife of Mr. Lynch and mother of Hannah Lynch. Neither had made it onto the life raft. (Salamander Davoudi, a spokeswoman for Lynch family, told The Times that Ms. Bacares was not speaking to the media because she was grieving and wanted privacy.)

A few hours after, a string of ambulances arrived at Palermo’s main hospital. Dr. Domenico Cipolla, the head of pediatric emergency, evaluated the youngest survivor, a 1-year-old girl.

The baby was OK, Dr. Cipolla said, but she had experienced quite an ordeal. She and her mother had been sleeping on a sofa on deck because of the rough sea, Dr. Cipolla said, when the boat suddenly lurched and threw them to the deck.

A moment later the boat turned completely on its side, the baby’s father told the doctor, flipping his hand as he described it. The doctor said the mother told him that she and her baby were hurled into the water and that her baby nearly slipped away. But then she grabbed her and swam to a nearby life raft, which was designed to deploy automatically.

The parents were later identified as Charlotte Golunski, a colleague of Mr. Lynch, and James Emslie. Ms. Golunski did not respond to several messages left for her, and efforts to reach Mr. Emslie were unsuccessful.

Mistakes by the Crew?

The biggest question that investigators are focused on is how the Bayesian filled with water so fast. To many in the yachting world, it doesn’t make sense.

The boat had been built with several watertight compartments under the deck, to prevent water from spreading from one area to others. And it had been approved as safe by the Maritime and Coastguard Agency, part of Britain’s Department for Transport, and by the American Bureau of Shipping, a private company that reviews boat designs.

On top of that, one Italian official and underwater video footage broadcast on Italian television indicated that there were no holes or other structural damage visible in the hull.

Even so, the Bayesian, like many superyachts, had all kinds of openings in which water could theoretically get in: big air vents for the engines; smaller ones for the kitchen, crew quarters and guest cabins; large glass doors at the back and the sides so that people could walk onto the deck; and various hatches for crew and passenger access.

In interviews with Mr. Costantino, the chief executive of the Italian Sea Group, and his spokeswoman, the company accused the crew of leaving hatches open during the storm, including a doorway-size opening on the left rear of the hull, close to the water line. The spokeswoman claimed that hatch was the only place where so much water could have come gushing in.

The company speculated that the crew did not close a watertight door between this hatch and the engine room. A flooded engine room might explain the sudden blackout that killed the mast lights and then, a few minutes later, the location transmitter.

But witnesses, an Italian official familiar with the investigation and the underwater video challenged the company’s versions of events. The footage appeared to show the watertight door to the engine room closed, and the Italian official said the divers had not seen any open hatches on the hull.

Mr. Borner also said that after rescuing the captain, he asked him if he had shut the hatches. The captain said he had. Mr. Borner shared pictures taken by his guests a few moments before the Bayesian sank that appear to show that hull hatches were closed.

A Compromised Design?

The Bayesian’s origins go back to 2000. That year, Perini hired Ron Holland Design, a premier naval architectural firm, to design a series of 56-meter sailboats, said a person with knowledge of the timeline. As the superrich have become even richer, yachts have grown steadily bigger, and Perini was emerging as one of the world’s best-known builders of superyachts, often defined as motor yachts or sailboats longer than 24 meters, or 79 feet.

The Ron Holland firm, based in Ireland at the time, drew up plans for the hull, keel, rudder and, crucially, the placement of the masts — two masts. All other features, like the cabins, decks and vent system, were designed by Perini, according to the person, who did not want to be identified because of the possibility of legal action connected to the sinking.

In 2003, the first yacht in the series hit the water, the Burrasca (which means storm in Italian). Over the next four years, Perini built three more 56-meter superyachts from these blueprints, all with two masts. On Perini’s website, they look nearly identical.

Then came the Bayesian.

Construction on its hull began in 2005 at a shipyard in Tuzla, Turkey, according to the boat’s documents. But the original buyer for this yacht didn’t want the standard two-mast design. Instead, the Italian Sea Group said, he wanted the boat to be built with one large mast for better sailing performance.

That led to a radically different design, said three people with knowledge of what followed, and a cascade of modifications — some to accommodate the gigantic mast, and some apparently for stylistic or other reasons.

The most obvious departure from the previous Perini ships was the mast itself. Beyond being exceptionally tall — more than 40 feet higher than the original foremast — it was also very heavy, at least 24 tons of aluminum, possibly more. This alone would have challenged the boat’s stability, because so much weight was high above deck.

Since then, many yacht makers have switched to lighter, carbon-fiber masts.

“Technology moved on,” Mr. Costantino said.

Naval engineers pointed out that the heavier a yacht is up high, the more ballast it often needs down low — weight at the bottom of the boat to lower its center of gravity and resist its tendency to lean over.

Small notes on hull diagrams in the Bayesian’s documents show that the Turkish shipyard revised the ballast in July 2006, nearly 10 months after the keel was laid, which is one of the first steps of production.

“Values updated as from information by Yildiz,” the notes say in all caps, naming the shipyard.

But where this ballast was placed was curious, maritime experts said. Rather than spreading the ballast evenly across the bottom of the boat — which would have guaranteed the best stability — the builders stacked it toward the rear of the ship’s hull.

“When I first saw this, I couldn’t believe it,” said Mr. Roberts, the naval architect. “It made no sense to me.”

The ballast seems to have been pushed toward the rear of the boat to offset the single, heavy mast closer toward the front, Mr. Roberts concluded. He said he had never seen the main ballast used in such a design tactic before.

That was not the only change, experts said. A single mast would have plunged almost directly through the wheelhouse, an interior station where the ship can be controlled, so that was moved, too. A deck lounge was added, along with two tall doors on the sides. None of the other Perini yachts in the 56-meter series have these design elements.

The Bayesian sat lower in the water than other yachts in the same Perini series, said Stephen Edwards, the Bayesian’s captain from 2015 to 2020. Naval architects said this by itself would make it easier for water to pour through vents and other openings when the boat leans on its side.

Whenever a boat leans too far and water starts gushing in through open doors or vents, it can set off a dangerous downward spiral that is hard to stop and that can sink a boat in minutes.

Such risks are calculated and laid out in a lengthy, proprietary document — kind of a safety bible — for many vessels certified to ply the seas.

The Times has obtained that safety bible, called a stability book, for the Bayesian. Copies of the 88-page book are also sweeping through a global community of experts who are obsessively trying to solve the puzzle of how and why the boat sank. More than a dozen of those experts, including naval architects and engineers, found weaknesses in the Bayesian’s design that they said could have contributed to the disaster.

The stability book obtained by The Times was written before the Lynches bought the boat in 2014, when the yacht was called the Salute and owned by John Groenewoud, a Dutch businessman. In an email, he confirmed signing a contract for “the boat with 1 mast” in 2005, but declined to discuss any safety implications that may have had.

The Times obtained the stability book for another 56-meter Perini yacht, with two masts instead of one. A comparison of the boats showed that the Bayesian was significantly less stable.

Specifically, the data shows that the two-masted ship could lean at least 10 degrees farther onto its side before taking on dangerous amounts of water.

The documents also show that the Bayesian could begin taking on some water at angles that appeared to violate the safety threshold set by the British Maritime and Coastguard Agency.

The Italian Sea Group responded that the boat was in line with regulations and had been approved. When asked how that happened, an agency spokesman refused to clarify, citing the continuing investigations.

The other boat’s documents also showed that the sister yacht sat a little higher in the water than the Bayesian did, as Mr. Edwards emphasized. And under many circumstances, experts said, the sister ship had a better center of gravity and was more resistant to capsizing, two additional factors that would have made it safer.

“The other boat is, at least on paper, a better boat,” Mr. Roberts said.

To make boats safer, naval architects said they religiously ensured that vent openings are far from the water line. When showed a picture of a 56-meter Perini yacht that, like the Bayesian, had vents built into the hull, Philipp Luke, a Dutch naval architect, started violently shaking his head.

“No, no, no,” he said. “You don’t do that.”

In the end, several naval architects said, all these flaws may have come together at the worst time — in a sudden storm.

Two Spanish naval engineers, Guillermo Gefaell and Juan Manuel López, calculated that the sheer size of the Bayesian’s mast and rigging made the yacht a wind catcher, even with the sails down.

Writing for the Association of Naval and Ocean Engineers of Spain, they used a computer model to calculate what would have happened to the Bayesian if a strong gust of roughly 54 knots, around 62 mph, hit its side. Under those conditions, the Spanish engineers estimated, the Bayesian could lean dynamically and take on nearly a ton of water each second through an engine room vent.

In an interview, Mr. Gefaell noted that he, like almost everyone else, did not know everything that happened that night. But if the gusts were as strong as Mr. Borner estimated — 60 knots — the punch would have pushed the boat to an even more severe angle, his calculations showed, very quickly knocking the boat all the way over onto its side, as the witnesses recounted.

At that point, Mr. Gefaell said, “the boat was certainly lost.”

A Watery Maze

Within hours of the sinking, emergency divers plunged in. Their mission: Find survivors.

The Bayesian sat 160 feet below the surface, leaning on its right side on the seabed. The once-gleaming cabins were clogged with chairs, clothes, curtains and the enormous number of seat cushions that Ms. Bacares had brought onboard to make the boat more comfortable. The search was made even more difficult and dangerous, divers said, by the many mirrors installed below deck that now reflected back their lights in a disorienting, watery maze.

On the first day, divers found the body of the yacht’s chef, Recaldo Thomas, floating near the boat. Over the next three days, they found the bodies of Mr. Lynch and four other passengers in a small cabin near the foot of a narrow staircase leading down from the deck to the passenger’s quarters. Finally, divers discovered the body of the last missing person, Hannah Lynch, trapped behind furniture in a nearby cabin.

One Italian official said the six passengers might have been trying to climb the main guest staircase when a surge of water poured down the stairs and knocked them back into the cabins. With the boat flipped on its side, water gushing in, and total darkness, it would have been nearly impossible for anyone below deck to escape, experts said.

The Italian authorities plan to raise the wreck to inspect it more closely. That could take months. In the meantime, at least two major investigations are unfolding, one by Italian prosecutors and the other by the British Marine Accident Investigation Branch.

From the first weeks after the accident, Italian prosecutors said that Mr. Cutfield, the captain, and two of his crew were under investigation.

Mr. Cutfield hasn’t said a word publicly and did not respond to messages asking for comment. Several crew members, when approached at a hotel in Sicily in August, said they had all been put under a gag order. When asked who imposed it, they responded: “No comment.”

In the yachting world, Mr. Cutfield has some solid references. Turgay Ciner, a Turkish industrial magnate and sailing enthusiast, employed him to run his yacht for 12 years.

“He never made any mistakes,” Mr. Ciner said.

Mr. Ciner, speaking by phone from Istanbul, recounted a bad storm near Capri about 10 years ago that Mr. Cutfield handled. They were sailing on another 56-meter Perini yacht, the Melek, a two-masted boat in the same series as the Bayesian. He said that Mr. Cutfield performed very well and was “one out of a hundred.”

Why Mr. Cutfield left in a lifeboat with the other survivors when a half dozen passengers were still missing is a matter Italian prosecutors are looking into.

But several yacht captains have defended Mr. Cutfield, saying that whatever happened that night, it happened very quickly.

When a boat sinks fast, said Adam Hauck, an American yacht captain, there’s not much hope for anyone still onboard. The adage of the captain going down with the ship, he said, is antiquated and unrealistic.

“It’s not like a Titanic movie where you’re going through the water and you can just look in the rooms,” Mr. Hauck said. “At some point, you can’t go back for people.”

Top U.S. Officials Are in the Middle East to Try to Jumpstart Cease-Fire Talks

Top Biden administration negotiators were back in the Middle East on Thursday for a last diplomatic drive before the American election, though hopes were not high for quick agreements to pause the fighting.

With Israel battling Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director and top American negotiator, was expected to meet with officials in Cairo on Thursday, according to a U.S. official who spoke anonymously to discuss sensitive negotiations. At the same time, President Biden’s Middle East coordinator, Brett McGurk, and his de facto envoy on the conflict with Hezbollah, Amos Hochstein, held talks in Israel, the U.S. official said.

The head of U.S. Central Command, Gen. Michael E. Kurilla, was also traveling to the region and was scheduled to visit Israel for discussions with counterparts there as well as with U.S. military personnel in the country, the U.S. official added.

The goal of all of these visits is to support the Biden administration’s policy of “de-escalation backed by deterrence,” the U.S. official said. But progress in cease-fire talks seems unlikely in coming days, with the election looming on Tuesday in the United States.

Officials briefed on Israel’s internal thinking, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomacy, have said that the country’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is waiting to see who will succeed President Biden before committing to a diplomatic trajectory.

What you should know. The Times makes a careful decision any time it uses an anonymous source. The information the source supplies must be newsworthy and give readers genuine insight.

Learn more about our process.

In his meetings with officials in Egypt, Mr. Burns was expected to discuss proposals to secure the release of hostages held in Gaza in exchange for a cease-fire, according to a U.S. official and another person briefed on the talks. About 100 hostages captured in the Hamas attack in Israel last October remain in Gaza, and Israeli officials believe about two-thirds are still alive.

Earlier in the week, during talks among envoys from Israel, the United States and the two countries that mediate for Hamas, Egypt and Qatar, possible proposals emerged for an initial, temporary cease-fire in Gaza that would lead to the return of a small group of hostages.

Mr. Burns’s discussions in Cairo were expected to focus on refinements to those scaled-down proposals that American officials hope will prod both Israel and Hamas to at least soften their positions and allow bargaining to resume in earnest after months of false starts.

Multiple versions of a potential Gaza proposal are still under discussion. One would release female hostages along with male captives over 50 in return for a set number of Palestinian prisoners, according to a person briefed on the discussions, who also spoke on the condition of anonymity. In that version, the fighting in Gaza would pause for some time, but likely less than the six weeks envisioned in a previous deal negotiators had been pushing.

Officials in Washington are pessimistic that Hamas will take any of the new deals on offer, however. A senior Hamas official, Osama Hamdan, has already rejected an idea Egypt proposed over the weekend for a 48-hour cease-fire in Gaza, during which Hamas would release four Israeli hostages in exchange for some Palestinians imprisoned in Israel. Mr. Hamdan said on Sunday that Hamas would agree only to a permanent cessation of hostilities.

Some U.S. officials believe that Hamas leaders, like some officials in Israel, see waiting as advantageous. Israel’s longstanding conflict with Hezbollah, which reignited when the Lebanon-based armed group began firing on Israel last October in solidarity with Hamas in Gaza, has ballooned from a regular but relatively restrained exchange of fire into an Israeli military ground operation and airstrikes inside Lebanon.

Hezbollah has also continued its attacks targeting Israel. On Thursday, local officials in Metula, in northern Israel, said that projectiles fired from Lebanon had struck an agricultural area, killing four foreign workers and an Israeli farmer.

In Israel, Mr. McGurk and Mr. Hochstein were expected to discuss the war in Gaza and the hostages, Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the related conflict with Iran. On Wednesday, a draft cease-fire proposal to address the fighting with Hezbollah in Lebanon was published by Israeli news media, prompting a National Security Council spokesman, Sean Savett, to warn that such reports should be viewed with skepticism.

“There are many reports and drafts circulating,” he said in a statement. “They do not reflect the current state of negotiations.”

Nor did the published draft appear likely to gain traction. Kassem Kassir, a Lebanese expert on Hezbollah who is close to the group, noted that the document appears to call for Hezbollah’s withdrawal from Lebanon’s border area with Israel and for the Lebanese authorities to prevent the group from rearming.

“It’s too early to discuss these points, and I think it won’t be accepted by Hezbollah,” he said.

Myra Noveck and Hwaida Saad contributed reporting.

How the U.S. Election Matters for the Rest of the World


Israel and Gaza

Patrick Kingsley is The Times’s Jerusalem bureau chief.

Israelis, if they could, would vote by a large margin for Trump — the polls show that very clearly. But whoever wins, the long-term impact will probably be limited.

Israeli society, not to mention the government, is more opposed to Palestinian statehood and a two-state solution than it has been in decades. No U.S. president is likely to change that. President Harris would probably put more pressure on Israel to reach a cease-fire and open up talks with the Palestinians. But she would be unlikely to, say, cut off military support to Israel.

President Trump would perhaps be less bothered about Israel allowing Jewish settlers back into Gaza, as part of the Israeli government would like to do. He also talks a much more aggressive line on Iran than Harris, which pleases many Israelis. But you don’t quite know which side of the bed he’s going to wake up on. You get the sense he’s more risk averse than he sounds, and he recently appeared to rule out trying to topple the Iranian regime.

Because of that unpredictability, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may feel he can take more advantage of a Harris administration. So the internal Israeli thinking might be more nuanced than it seems.

Russia and Ukraine

Anton Troianovski is The Times’s Moscow bureau chief.

This is an election that matters massively to Russia and Ukraine.

Some Ukrainians worry that Trump will try to force a quick peace deal that’s favorable to Russia. But they also fear that American support for Ukraine could decline under a Harris presidency. Some Ukrainians also say that Trump might not be so bad: after all, it was during his presidency that the U.S. started sending antitank weapons to Ukraine.

However, in Russia, President Vladimir V. Putin sees much less of a difference between Trump and Harris on Ukraine than we might think. He believes that America’s commitment to Ukraine will eventually wane, whatever the outcome of the election.

Putin wants a deal, something that he can call a victory. He believes that Ukraine is a puppet of the United States. So he believes he can only get that deal in a negotiation with the U.S. president. He has publicly backed Harris. That might seem disingenuous, or counterintuitive, but Putin may think he can do business with her.

There is one way in which a Trump victory would unambiguously strengthen Putin: It would mean an America that’s far less engaged in the world and in Eastern Europe, which Putin sees as his rightful sphere of interest.

China

Keith Bradsher is The Times’s Beijing bureau chief.

Whoever wins, the next U.S. president will be a hawk on China. But the people I speak to in Beijing are divided about which candidate would be better for China. The trade-off centers on two issues: tariffs and Taiwan.

Chinese economic officials are very aware that Trump has called for blanket tariffs on China’s exports, which could pose a serious threat to China’s economy. This is a country that is enormously dependent on foreign demand, especially from America, to keep its factories running and its workers employed. Manufacturing creates a lot of wealth, and it offsets China’s very serious housing market crash.

Meanwhile, the Chinese foreign policy world sees advantages to Trump’s winning the election.

China feels increasingly hemmed in by U.S. efforts, particularly by the Biden administration, to strengthen alliances with many of China’s neighbors: Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, India and above all Taiwan. Harris would probably continue those efforts. Trump is much less committed to building and maintaining international alliances.

And Trump has also shown much less interest in defending Taiwan. That is very welcome in Beijing.

Europe and NATO

Steven Erlanger is the chief diplomatic correspondent for The Times, covering Europe.

For Europe, this U.S. election feels like the end of an era, whatever the outcome.

Depending on whom you talk to in Europe, a Trump victory is either a nightmare or a gift. Europe’s growing band of nativists — in Hungary, Italy, Germany and elsewhere — regard Trump as the leader of their movement. If he regains the White House, he would normalize and energize their hard line on immigration and national identity.

Meanwhile, most western European leaders are deeply anxious. Trump’s talk of slapping 20 percent tariffs onto everything sold to America, including European exports, could spell disaster for Europe’s economy. And, of course, Trump has repeatedly talked about leaving NATO.

Even if the United States doesn’t formally leave NATO, Trump could fatally undermine the alliance’s credibility if he says, “I’m not going to go fight for some small European country.”

If Harris wins, there is a feeling that she, too, will be preoccupied at home and more concerned with China, and will expect the Europeans to do more for themselves. There is a palpable sense in Europe that Biden was perhaps the last U.S. president to be personally attached to an alliance forged in the Cold War.

Global trade

Ana Swanson covers trade and international economics.

Donald Trump says “tariff” is “the most beautiful word in the dictionary. More beautiful than love, more beautiful than respect.”

So this election is, among other things, a referendum on the entire global trade system, with U.S. voters making a choice that could affect the entire world.

Harris, if elected, would maintain targeted tariffs on Chinese goods on national security grounds. Trump is promising something much, much more aggressive, setting tariff levels that haven’t been seen in nearly a century: 10 to 20 percent on most foreign products, and 60 percent or more on goods made in China.

This would hit more than $3 trillion in U.S. imports, and probably cause multiple trade wars, as other countries retaliate with tariffs of their own. Most economists say we could end up with more tariffs, less trade, lower income and growth — a poorer world, essentially.

Can Trump just do that? Yes, he can. He has broad legal authority. And that would mean the United States is undermining the big international trade rules that it helped to create.

South Africa

John Eligon is The Times’s Johannesburg bureau chief.

There are some interesting differences in how people in Africa see Harris and Trump. Despite the fact that Trump has vulgarly dismissed African countries, some see him as a strong leader who gets things done. In many ways he resembles a lot of autocratic African leaders.

Harris, in Africa, is known for spending time in Zambia when she was growing up, as the granddaughter of an Indian diplomat stationed there. And her being of African descent resonates very deeply. She is seen as being very much of the continent.

Biden — and presumably Harris — wants African countries to decarbonize, because many still rely on fossil fuels for energy. Trump would probably not have that focus, and so his presidency might be desirable for countries that want to continue burning coal and oil and gas, instead of being dragged kicking and screaming into the clean energy transition.

South Africa is feeling a push and pull between the West, where it has the strongest economic ties, and the alliance of BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, among others). It seems plausible that if Trump wins, he will be much more isolationist, and might have no problem watching countries like South Africa and Ethiopia draw even closer to BRICS.

Mexico

Natalie Kitroeff is The Times’s Mexico City bureau chief.

Mexico is facing significant challenges if Trump is elected. There will almost certainly be heightened tensions at the U.S.-Mexico border. Mexico is the biggest U.S. trading partner, and it could face heavy tariffs. And it will be the next-door neighbor of a president who has threatened to use the U.S. military on Mexican soil.

But Mexico anticipates a tough immigration regime whoever wins. Under President Harris, that would probably mean continuity with the Biden administration policies that have become much more restrictive over time. Migration is a shared issue. Migrants from all over the world pass through Mexico to get to the U.S. border, and the United States can’t control the flow of migrants without Mexico’s assistance.

Trump has promised to deport 11 million people, mostly to Latin America — though experts are dubious that such a feat is even feasible. But even a small number of deportations could have huge consequences throughout the region.

Mexico has some leverage. But its leaders could really be backed into a corner by an emboldened Trump. And they know it.

Climate

Somini Sengupta is The Times’s international climate reporter.

The stakes could not be higher. The United States has emitted more carbon than any country in history, and is the second-biggest emitter right now after China. What it does next will impact the entire world’s ability to avert catastrophic climate change.

If Harris is elected, she is likely to press ahead with Biden’s policies of shifting to renewable energy and reducing carbon emissions. Less clear is whether she will restrict oil and gas production, as the United States is now producing more oil and gas than any country ever has.

Trump, if he wins, may not scrap the Biden-era policies altogether. But he could overturn dozens of measures that regulate emissions from cars and power plants, eviscerating the country’s ability to reduce emissions fast enough.

Trump’s actions could also leave China without serious competition in renewable energy technology like batteries and electric vehicles. China is already leading that race.

Whoever wins the U.S. election, the energy transition is already in motion. But speed and scale matter. Trump could slow the transition to a crawl, with potentially disastrous consequences for the climate, and the world.

A Catastrophic Deluge Leaves Parts of Spain in Ruins

Flash flooding across Spain killed at least 158 people this week after torrential rain left towns and villages submerged and turned streets into rivers in the eastern and southern parts of the country. In some areas, several months’ worth of rain fell in a single day.

Since Monday, when the deluge began, residents in affected areas have struggled to clear mud and tree-covered streets. Cars and trucks were swept away and dumped in piles, blocking roads. Rescuers have carried out evacuations by helicopter and boat, and wide swaths of the country have been left without electricity.

Most of the deaths occurred in the region of Valencia, on Spain’s eastern coast. With roads impassable and bridges broken, some communities were completely cut off.

The death toll is expected to rise as some people are still missing, and more rain is forecast.

Thursday

Valencia

Lining up to collect water from a broken pipe. The floods left widespread damage to infrastructure.

Valencia

Rescuers conducting search operations via helicopter.

Valencia

A supermarket ravaged by the floods.

Valencia

Cleaning up a store covered in mud.

Wednesday

Valencia

A mudslide on a flooded street.

Albacete

Rescuing an injured person from the debris.

Valencia

Preparing to spend the night in a restaurant converted into an emergency shelter.

Teruel

A resident washing a broom after cleaning his flood-damaged home.

Valencia

Soldiers examining a van that was tossed into a building by floodwaters.

Malaga

Cleaning out mud and water from an inundated home.

Valencia

Rail tracks undermined and littered with debris after the flood.

Valencia

Checking messages after alerts were sent out to avoid travel.

Tuesday

Valencia

Raging floodwaters carrying off cars and leaving buildings gutted.

North Korea, in the Spotlight Over Ukraine, Launches a Long-Range Missile

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North Korea launched an intercontinental ballistic missile off its east coast on Thursday, shortly after the United States and South Korea condemned the country for deploying troops near Ukraine to join Russia’s war effort.

The missile was fired from Pyongyang, the North Korean capital, at a deliberately steep angle so that it reached an unusually high altitude but did not fly over Japan, the South Korean military said in a brief statement. The missile landed in waters between North Korea and Japan.

The military said it was analyzing data to learn more about the missile, but that it believed it was an ICBM. North Korea last tested a long-range missile​ in December, when it test-fired its solid-fueled Hwasong-18 ICBM.

North Korea confirmed later Thursday that its military had launched an ICBM, saying that its leader, Kim Jong-un, had been present. North Korea “will never change its line of bolstering up its nuclear forces,” Mr. Kim was quoted as saying by the North’s official Korean Central News Agency.

The launch on Thursday was the North’s first major weapons test since September, when it fired a new type of Hwasong-11 short-range ballistic missile, which it said could carry a “super-large” conventional warhead weighing 4.5 tons.

On Wednesday, South Korean defense intelligence officials told lawmakers that North Korea might conduct long-range missile tests before the American presidential election next week. They also said that the North was preparing to conduct its seventh underground nuclear test, in a bid to raise tensions and gain diplomatic leverage with the next U.S. president. North Korea conducted its last nuclear test in 2017.

In recent weeks, North Korea has posed a fresh security challenge to Washington and its allies by sending an estimated 11,000 troops to Russia to fight in its war against Ukraine. Thousands of them, outfitted with Russian uniforms and equipment, have moved closer to the front lines, preparing themselves for possible battle against Ukrainian troops, South Korean and American officials said.

The U.S. secretary of defense, Lloyd J. Austin III, and Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun of South Korea met in Washington on Wednesday for annual defense talks between the allies. They said they “condemned in the strongest terms with one voice” the cooperation between Russia and North Korea that “has expanded beyond transfers of military supplies to actual deployment of forces.”

Mr. Austin said he was increasingly concerned that President Vladimir V. Putin planned to use the North Korean soldiers to support Russia’s combat operations in its Kursk region, where Ukraine has held territory since invading in August.

“Putin has gone tin-cupping to get weapons” from North Korea and Iran, Mr. Austin said. “Turning to a pariah state like North Korea for troops just underscores how much trouble he is in.”

Besides the troops, North Korea has sent 16,000 shipping containers full of artillery shells, rockets and missiles to Russia since the summer of last year, according to Washington and Seoul. When Mr. Putin met with Mr. Kim, the North’s leader, in Pyongyang in June, they restored a Cold War-era treaty of mutual defense and military cooperation between their countries.

That agreement raised fears in Washington and Seoul that Mr. Kim was forming an alliance with Russia to counter the one between South Korea and the United States, which also features a mutual defense treaty. In return for providing weapons and troops to Russia, North Korea was also seeking to get advanced technologies from Moscow to improve its missiles and satellite-launch programs, U.S. and South Korean analysts said.

Days after Mr. Putin’s visit to Pyongyang, North Korea said for the first time that it had tested technology for launching several nuclear warheads with a single missile.

South Korean defense officials said that the launch appeared to indicate some improvement in North Korea’s ICBM capabilities. The missile fired may have been a new solid-fuel ICBM, said Lee Sung-joon, a spokesman for the South Korean military. When North Korea’s leader visited a munitions factory in September, state media released photos showing what looked like a new and bigger ICBM.

Thursday’s ICBM flew for a longer time than any previous one North Korea has launched — approximately 86 minutes, according to Japan’s Defense Ministry.

North Korea has launched several ICBMs in recent years, including ones with solid propellant that are easier to move and hide, and faster to launch, than its old liquid-fuel versions. But all of those missiles were fired at steep angles, rather than being sent across the Pacific.

North Korea has never demonstrated an ability to fire an ICBM on a normal, flatter trajectory. Another technological hurdle the North has yet to show it has cleared is so-called re-entry technology. After soaring into space, an ICBM warhead must endure intense heat and friction as it crashes back into the earth’s atmosphere and toward its target.

Can Men in China Take a Joke? Women Doing Stand-Up Have Their Doubts.

On the list of topics best avoided by China’s comedians, some are obvious. Politics. The Chinese military.

Now add: Men’s fragile egos.

That, at least, was the message sent this month, when a major e-commerce platform abruptly ended a partnership with China’s most prominent female stand-up comic. The company was caving to pressure from men on social media who described the comedian, Yang Li, as a man-hating witch.

Speaking up for women’s rights is increasingly sensitive in China, and the stand-up stage is the latest battleground. Growing numbers of women like Ms. Yang are speaking out about — and laughing at — the injustices they face. On two hugely popular stand-up shows this fall, women were among the breakout stars, thanks to punchlines about the difficulty of finding a good partner, or men’s fear of talking about menstruation.

But a backlash has emerged, as men balk at being the butt of the joke. They have attacked the comics on social media; Ms. Yang has described receiving threats of violence. The women’s new visibility can also be easily erased. Not long after the e-commerce company, JD.com, dropped Ms. Yang, it deleted posts on its official social media account featuring two other female comedians.

The battle over women’s jokes reflects the broader paradox of feminism in China. On the one hand, feminist rhetoric is more widespread than ever before, with once-niche discussions of gender inequality now aired openly. But the forces trying to suppress that rhetoric are also growing, encouraged by a government that has led its own crusade against feminist activism and pushed women toward traditional roles.

On guancha.cn, a nationalistic commentary site, an editorial declared: “The fewer divisive symbols like Yang Li, the better.”

Even before the JD.com controversy erupted, Ms. Yang, 32, had addressed the perils of poking fun at men. On one of the recent shows, she said young female comics had asked her whether they should make certain jokes.

“I didn’t have an answer,” Ms. Yang said. “If I told them to do it, I’d worry what would happen to them afterward. If I told them not to, I’d worry about how good their performances would be.”

Ms. Yang, who declined an interview through a representative, was one of the first Chinese comedians to demonstrate the possibilities for women in stand-up.

The daughter of pig farmers in Hebei Province, Ms. Yang was a former graphic designer and aspiring comedian when she shot to fame in 2020, with a routine about her dating woes. “How can men look so average, and yet be so confident?” she said, a one-liner that went viral.

To many women, she became an icon. But many men viciously denounced her, accusing her of inciting “gender antagonism” — a term state media often uses to denounce feminism — and even reporting her to the government. When Intel and Mercedes-Benz featured her in ad campaigns in 2021, online fury prompted Intel to drop her and Mercedes-Benz to limit the ad’s visibility.

Ms. Yang was unapologetic. And gradually, more women joined her. A female contestant on one of this year’s shows thanked Ms. Yang, who was the show’s chief screenwriter, for acting as an “older sister” in a male-dominated field.

Those women have been blazing their own trails, with jokes that sometimes go further than Ms. Yang’s or broach new aspects of women’s daily indignities. Several performers talked about men commenting on their weight, or their parents’ preferences for sons. Another contestant, named Cai Cai, told a story about ordering menstrual pads and her male delivery driver’s refusal to even say the word.

“What is there to hide? Will you get thrown in jail for buying pads?” she said.

Jenny Zhang, a 30-year-old I.T. worker and stand-up fan in Shanghai, said watching the female comedians had helped her recognize injustices in her own life.

“After you hear it, you feel yourself becoming more aware of your own emotions,” she said. “Some things that you just thought were a little uncomfortable, you realize there’s a problem behind it.”

Still, even as the performers have broached once-taboo topics, they have not explicitly called themselves feminists. And they have left potentially more sensitive issues, such as domestic violence or sexual harassment, largely untouched.

But even if the jokes stay within the realm of the mundane, what matters is their appearance on mainstream platforms, said Xiaowen Liang, a feminist activist in New York who has participated in a popular Chinese-language feminist stand-up show there.

“Young women have already been talking about this a lot,” she said of topics such as period shame. But “to let your male partners, elders, bosses, those kinds of people understand your experience — that’s extremely precious.”

The emphasis on personal stories has also helped to keep references to gender inequality alive in pop culture, even as more overt activism has been crushed, said Dan Chen, a professor of political science at the University of Richmond who studies Chinese stand-up. Government censors are less likely to see such stories as political statements, she said.

“But if others resonate with you, then the message is sent,” Professor Chen said, adding that stand-up, with its humor, allows women to deflect accusations of lecturing.

Still, even the relatively cautious approach has not been enough to stave off controversy, as shown when Ms. Yang appeared in an ad for JD.com’s online pharmacy services this month.

Infuriated commenters called her an “extreme feminist,” citing her 2020 joke about average-looking men. They promised to boycott the platform and filed customer service complaints claiming that the company didn’t respect men.

Some pointed to JD.com’s chief executive, a woman, as proof that toxic feminists had infiltrated the company. (The company’s chairman, Richard Liu, was accused of rape in a U.S. court; the case was settled out of court in 2022.)

Four days after posting the ad with Ms. Yang, JD.com deleted it. “Recently, the participation of some stand-up comics in JD’s promotional events attracted online attention. If this has brought you a bad experience, we deeply apologize!” it said in a statement. “Going forward, we have no plans to collaborate with the relevant performers.”

JD.com also deleted posts featuring two other female comedians who have made jokes about men. The company did not respond to a request for comment.

To Ms. Yang’s defenders, the controversy was not really about her, but about men’s insecurity about women’s rising status.

“Women’s buying power and self-awareness are getting stronger and stronger. Appealing to this group is a very simple business decision,” said Cheen Qin, a 40-year-old manager at an internet company in Shenzhen. But “men can’t handle it,” she said.

After she posted in support of Ms. Yang online, Ms. Qin said, a male former classmate called her stupid.

Still, many women said they hoped that female performers and audiences alike would continue to find an outlet in stand-up. (The genre can be fraught, no matter the performer’s gender. Last year, stand-up shows across China were canceled after a male comedian made a joke that some nationalists online considered an insult to Chinese soldiers.)

Ms. Yang herself had already said, before the ad controversy, that she planned to focus more on smaller-scale shows, rather than television appearances. But she encouraged other women to ignore exhortations to talk about something other than gender.

“I just want to say, on behalf of people after me who may encounter the same problems: Going forward, this is all we’re going to talk about!” she said. “If you’re really offended, go watch something else.”

Siyi Zhao contributed research.

The World Series Was Big in Japan. The TV Ratings Prove It.

Jun Mizuno’s bar in Toyama, Japan, used to open at 5 p.m. But after Shohei Ohtani began his first season with the Los Angeles Dodgers this year, Mizuno started opening at 8 a.m. so his customers could cheer for the national baseball hero over whiskey highballs and lemon soju sodas.

Thursday morning was no exception. Mizuno turned on the TV in his bar, Otoko Bar Mizuno Sake Store, and his regulars watched Ohtani win his first World Series, as the Dodgers beat the Yankees, 7-6, in Game 5.

“The entire country is thrilled,” Mizuno said, as a banner of Ohtani as tall as his bar hung outside the entrance.

Japan has loved baseball for decades, but Ohtani’s appearances in the World Series alongside his Japanese teammate Yoshinobu Yamamoto elevated the games to soaring levels of popularity.

About 15.2 million television viewers in Japan watched each of the first two games of the World Series on average, compared with 14.5 million in the United States, according to Major League Baseball.

In Japan, the World Series games began at 9 a.m., so people watched over breakfast or during their workdays. Mizuno’s bar in the coastal city of Toyama offered a special morning set for the games: eggs, bacon, cheese toast and black coffee.

Ohtani, a two-time American League Most Valuable Player who in previous seasons excelled both as a hitter and as a starting pitcher, played only as a designated hitter this year after having elbow surgery. After another outstanding regular season, he went just 2-for-19 in the World Series, failing to get on base in Game 5. He also injured his shoulder in Game 2.

Japanese fans watched his every move anyway.

“Ohtani sells,” said Jim Allen, who has covered Japanese baseball for Kyodo News since 2012, adding that Kyodo’s English-language articles about the player were about six times as popular as other articles. “The networks that were broadcasting the World Series games are basically doing nonstop Ohtani coverage.”

At the Tokyo headquarters of Nishikawa, a bedding company that Ohtani promotes, about a hundred employees surrounded a TV screen near the office’s entrance to watch the final inning of Game 5, said Yuna Mori, a company spokeswoman.

“He’s put together an unprecedented season, so everybody’s watching,” said John Gibson, a Japanese-to-English interpreter who lived in Japan for 30 years.

“I imagine the bosses are coming in and putting the TV on themselves and holding the remote,” he added.

It’s no surprise that Japan is watching a lot of baseball. When Ohtani led Japan to the championship at last year’s World Baseball Classic in Miami, more than 42 percent of Japanese households watched their country defeat the United States during the workday on a Wednesday.

M.L.B. has taken notice. It will open the 2025 season with the Dodgers playing the Chicago Cubs in Tokyo. The Dodgers played the San Diego Padres in this year’s season opener in Seoul, where Ohtani drew massive crowds.

Japanese broadcasters are aware, too. The creators of the hugely popular anime “One Piece” pushed back a season premiere ahead of the World Series so as not to compete with Ohtani and the Dodgers.

Ohtani, who is the first M.L.B. player to dominate in both hitting and pitching since Babe Ruth a century ago, last year signed a record-breaking $700 million deal to play with the Dodgers for 10 years. Last month, Ohtani became the first player to record 50 home runs and 50 stolen bases in one season.

Oshu, his hometown in northern Japan, has celebrated his every turn. The city government hosted World Series watch parties this week, and hundreds of residents showed up with Dodgers shirts and noise makers.

The exact size of the television audience throughout the World Series was not available on Thursday. But it’s clear that Japan’s TV viewership figures for the first four games, at least, eclipsed the domestic audience for the Japan Series, the national baseball championship that happened to coincide with the World Series, according to Video Research, a marketing research firm in Tokyo.

“You wouldn’t know that the Japan Series is happening right now,” said Jason Coskrey, a sports journalist in Tokyo who has worked at The Japan Times since 2007.

Coskrey watched the final game of the World Series in his office on his iPad. A co-worker looked over his shoulder to watch the last out.

“Everything’s been about Ohtani,” he said. “He’s front-page news. This is probably going to lead the news broadcast tonight. He’s like a supernova.”