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As our experts give their final predictions, the race to the White House remains on a knife edge. The presidency is so difficult to call that it is almost frustrating, with polls giving a fraction lead or loss each way.

Ultimately, with everything hanging in the balance, it will come down to election day. In times of such uncertainty, our experts’ predictions swing margainly toward Donald Trump – even if that is largely based on gut feeling.

• Latest presidential election polls: Harris v Trump

Who is going to win the election? The most honest answer I can give is: I have no idea. But I’m in good company.

Every respected pollster and analyst I’ve spoken to in the last week says the same. The financial markets are breaking for Kamala Harris, the betting markets for Donald Trump. The national polls and the swing states are within the margin of error. That does not necessarily mean the outcome will be close, but that it is difficult to draw conclusions based on the available data.

What I can tell you is that the mood music in Trump’s camp is far more upbeat than in the Harris camp. That is because the fundamentals of the last few weeks remain unchanged. After her early bump in the polls, it is Trump who has been gaining ground in the final stretch.

The former president has also ditched his opposition to early voting and Republicans have seen an uptick as a result. One state they are worried about is Pennsylvania, where GOP strategists say the Trump team has failed to run an effective ground game and Ms Harris’ supporters appear to have turned out early in far greater numbers. It may all come down to the KeyStone state once again.

Donald Trump is polling better than in 2016 and 2020, either because the pollsters are compensating for past errors or because he’s emerged as a stronger candidate than expected. Privately, his camp believes they may take the popular vote. Final weeks can see voters suddenly break away from a party, become “undecided” and switch decisively: in 1980, the classic example, Reagan took off post-debate.

But things remain static in 2024, with both parties leaning into their base. The Republicans go down making jokes about Latinos; the Democrats holding rallies to make abortion great again. It’s been a campaign full of fireworks but precious little light.

I’ve spent much of the election stating that with margins of less than one or two points across the swing states, polling is effectively inconclusive.

However, it’s difficult to ignore past performance of pollsters in understating Trump’s support. In the last few days of campaigning, Trump leads in five of the seven swing states: enough to put him into the White House. In none of his three elections has he been ahead in so many key states.

Meanwhile, the Harris campaign has lost momentum. She is now losing popularity rather than gaining it, according to polls. Her route to the White House now relies on her winning Michigan, Pennsylvania and either Wisconsin or Nevada. Those cards are appearing increasingly difficult to align. But no election night with Trump has been without surprises; I doubt Tuesday will be any different.

The year was 2022. Trump, still stewing in resentment after having narrowly lost the presidency, led his party into a devastating midterm performance. Traditional Republicans had deserted him over Jan 6 and he faced a series of painful legal battles. It looked like the end.

Flash forward two years and he’s polling neck-and-neck with a new Democratic challenger who, despite having vastly outspent him, somehow feels like the underdog of the race. If he wins the election next week, it would be fair to say that Donald Trump has pulled off possibly the most remarkable political comeback in living memory.

Some early voting patterns seem to favour the GOP, but the campaign still has a tough few days ahead of it. Still, given the notorious difficulty of polling Trump supporters, I can’t deny that my final prediction is built on a gut feeling: Teflon Don is ready to take back the White House.

With most of the swing states too close to call and some dramatic developments in recent days, all campaigners and pundits in this election are practically flying blind. Kamala Harris appears to have made small gains in some places in recent days, and her “get out the vote” strategy may boost her performance among those who already support her.

But I am wary of basing my prediction on polls and vibes after experts underestimated Trump so severely in 2016. My instinct is that he has got this one in the bag — perhaps after several recounts and a lengthy delay after polling day.

Methodology

Our experts are asked to plot their decision on a scale of 100, where 0 is a Harris landslide, 50 is a tie and 100 is a Trump landslide.