The New York Times 2024-11-22 00:11:18


Live Updates: I.C.C. Issues Arrest Warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant

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Here are the latest developments.

The International Criminal Court on Thursday issued arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel and his former defense minister, Yoav Gallant, for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza, dealing an extraordinary blow to Israel’s global standing as it presses on with wars on multiple fronts.

The court on Thursday also issued a warrant for the arrest of Muhammad Deif, Hamas’s military chief, for crimes against humanity, including murder, hostage taking and sexual violence. Israel has said that it killed Mr. Deif in an airstrike, but the court said it could not determine whether he was dead.

The court’s chief prosecutor had requested the warrants in May, prompting Israel and the United States to fiercely deny the allegations. The warrants issued Thursday have not been made public, but the court said they include accusations of using of starvation as a weapon of war and “intentionally directing an attack against the civilian population.”

Mr. Netanyahu’s office swiftly rejected what it called “absurd and false accusations,” insisting on Thursday that Israel would keep defending its citizens by fighting in Gaza. The Israeli leader “will not surrender to the pressures; he will not recoil or withdraw until all of the war’s goals — that were set at the start of the battle — are achieved,” the office said in a statement.

The decision places Mr. Netanyahu, the leader of one of the United States’ closest allies, in the same lineup as President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, the target of an arrest warrant issued last year. Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Gallant would face the risk of arrest should they travel to one of the court’s 124 member nations, including most European countries, though not the United States.

Hamas officials celebrated the warrants against Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Gallant — without mentioning the accusations against Mr. Deif. Izzat al-Rishq, a senior Hamas official, said that whether any arrests were made, “the truth that has been revealed is that international justice is with us and against” Israel.

Here is what else to know:

  • Global outcry: Israel has faced increasing condemnation over the war against Hamas in Gaza, where more than 44,000 Palestinians have been killed, according to the Gazan Health Ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants. Israel maintains that it fights in accordance with the international laws of war.

  • Hamas officials killed: The I.C.C. chief prosecutor, Karim Khan, in May had also sought arrest warrants for Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, and Ismail Haniyeh, another top official. But both have since been killed. Israel claimed it killed Mr. Deif in an airstrike in Gaza in July.

  • Lebanon talks: The court’s announcement came while a top Biden administration envoy, Amos Hochstein, was in Israel and scheduled to meet with Mr. Netanyahu. Mr. Hochstein has been in the region pushing for a cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group that has been clashing with Israel over the last year in solidarity with Hamas.

  • Autocratic company: Mr. Netanyahu is among only a handful of world leaders sought for arrest by the I.C.C. They include Mr. Putin, the Russian president, over the invasion of Ukraine; Muammar Gaddafi, who ruled Libya until his death in 2011; and Koudou Laurent Gbagbo, the president of Ivory Coast, for crimes against humanity in the wake of the disputed 2010 election.

Israelis condemn the decision to issue arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant.

Israeli politicians from the governing coalition and the opposition blasted the International Criminal Court on Thursday for issuing arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel’s former defense minister, Yoav Gallant.

The condemnations were a rare demonstration of unity in wartime Israel, which has been deeply divided in recent months over a range of issues, including how to bring home the hostages in Gaza, the handling of classified documents and conscription of ultra-Orthodox Jews.

Yair Lapid, the leader of the political opposition and a fierce critic of Mr. Netanyahu, called the warrants “a prize for terror.”

“Israel is protecting itself against terrorist organizations who attacked, murdered and raped our citizens,” he said.

Mr. Netanyahu’s office in a statement rejected what it called “the absurd and false accusations” and said Israel would continue its military campaign in Gaza, which began more than a year ago after Hamas militants attacked Israel in October 2023.

“Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not surrender to the pressures,” his office added. “He will not recoil or withdraw until all of the war’s goals — that were set at the start of the battle — are achieved.”

The warrants issued Thursday include accusations of using starvation as a weapon of war and “intentionally directing an attack against the civilian population.” Mr. Netanyahu has pushed back on the allegation of starving Palestinians in Gaza, pointing to the trucks of food that Israel has permitted to enter Gaza.

While Israel has allowed food to enter Gaza, hunger in the territory has remained widespread. Humanitarian workers have said looting by criminal gangs has hampered the delivery of aid and accused the Israeli military of denying convoys permission to deliver goods to warehouses.

Israel has blamed the aid organizations for inefficiency and contended that Hamas has stolen aid, too.

Gideon Saar, Israel’s foreign minister, said the court was experiencing “a dark moment” and asserted it had “lost all legitimacy for its existence and activity.”

“It acted as a political tool in the service of the most extreme terrorists working to undermine peace, security and stability in the Middle East,” he said. “This is an attack on the most threatened and targeted nation in the world — also the only country in the region openly called for and acted against by other nations seeking its elimination.”

Benny Gantz, a prominent member of the opposition, said the I.C.C. decision was a “shameful stain of historic proportion that will never be forgotten.”

The I.C.C. also said Thursday that it had issued a warrant for the arrest of Muhammad Deif, Hamas’s military chief, for crimes against humanity, including murder, kidnapping and sexual violence. Israel said in August that it had killed Mr. Deif, but the I.C.C. said it could not confirm his death.

Despite the show of solidarity among politicians, some Israelis offered criticism of the government.

Yonatan Shamriz‎, the brother of an Israeli hostage accidentally killed by the Israeli military in Gaza in December, said the warrants were a “difficult decision, one that stains our country and places it alongside nations we would not want to resemble.”

The warrants could have been avoided, he said in a social media post, if Israel had established a national commission of inquiry that proved “we are examining ourselves and learning lessons.”

Others Israelis went further, defending the court’s decision. B’Tselem, an Israeli human rights group, said the arrest warrants were “one of the lowest points in Israeli history” and called for them to be enforced.

“It isn’t surprising that the evidence indicates that Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Gallant are responsible for war crimes and crimes against humanity,” it said. “Personal accountability for decision makers is a key element in the struggle for justice and freedom for all human beings living between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea.”

Johnatan Reiss contributed reporting.

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Here’s why the I.C.C. says it issued arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders.

The International Criminal Court’s arrest warrants for two Israeli leaders say that there are grounds to believe they bear “criminal responsibility” for the devastating humanitarian crisis in Gaza, according to a statement released by the court on Thursday.

Most of Gaza’s over two million people are still displaced — many living in tents — and finding enough food and clean water is often a daily struggle. Israeli officials, who ordered the invasion of Gaza after the Hamas-led Oct. 7 attacks, say their aim is to eradicate the armed group. They have argued for months that they are doing everything possible to facilitate the flow of food and other desperately needed supplies to Palestinian civilians.

The text of the warrants was kept secret to protect witnesses, the court said in its statement, but the judges released some details “since conduct similar to that addressed in the warrant of arrest appears to be ongoing.”

The court said that there were reasonable grounds to find that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant, the former Israeli defense minister, bear responsibility for “the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare; and the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts.”

Mr. Netanyahu’s office rejected the assertions, calling them “absurd and false” and accusing the court of being motivated by antisemitism and hatred of the Jewish state. Israeli officials — as well as some aid workers — have blamed rampant lawlessness in Gaza, including attacks by armed gangs on convoys ferrying relief, as a major reason for the dire conditions.

The court said some Gazans had died from deprivation in part imposed by Israeli restrictions on the flow of aid, providing legal grounds for suspected murder. The judges also argued that restrictions on food and medicine to Gazans as a whole could amount to the crime of persecution under international law.

The number of relief convoys reaching desperate Gazans has fluctuated significantly over the course of the war. Health officials in Gaza say malnutrition has played a role in the deaths of at least some people, including young children.

Aid officials say Israel has often impeded their work, not allowing them to bring in enough food, medicine and fuel. Israeli officials have sometimes argued that there is no humanitarian crisis in Gaza; at other times, they have blamed aid organizations, saying they lack the logistical capacity to effectively ferry supplies through the enclave or prevent looting.

But the court said that Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Gallant had “intentionally and knowingly” deprived Gazans of “objects indispensable to their survival, including food, water and medicine and medical supplies.”

Israel has made some changes, including by opening new land crossings for aid to enter Gaza. But the court argued that those changes only came in response to pressure from the Biden administration and the international community, not from an Israeli attempt to comply with international law.

“In any event, the increases in humanitarian assistance were not sufficient to improve the population’s access to essential goods,” the court said.

Separately, both Israeli leaders bore responsibility “as civilian superiors” for “intentionally directing an attack against the civilian population,” the court said. The judges said they had found two attacks that were “intentionally directed against civilians,” though it did not elaborate on what they were.

The court also issued an arrest warrant for Muhammad Deif, Hamas’s military chief, who oversaw the Oct. 7 attacks. Israel announced in August that it had killed Mr. Deif in an airstrike in southern Gaza that killed dozens of Palestinians, although Hamas has yet to confirm his death.

The court said its prosecutors were “not in a position to determine whether Mr. Deif has been killed or remains alive,” so had decided to issue the arrest warrants anyway.

As the commander of Hamas’s armed wing, Mr. Deif plotted the attacks alongside other Hamas leaders. In a sweeping, coordinated assault, Hamas fighters broke through Israel’s defenses and led an attack that killed about 1,200 people and took more than 200 others hostage in Gaza.

In its statement, the court said there were reasonable grounds to hold Mr. Deif responsible for numerous crimes against humanity, including murder, torture, sexual violence, and hostage taking.

Karim Khan, the court’s chief prosecutor, had also requested arrest warrants for Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’s leader, and Ismail Haniyeh, who led the group’s political bureau. Mr. Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran in July, in an operation widely attributed to Israel, while Israeli troops killed Mr. Sinwar in October. Both of their deaths were confirmed by Hamas.

Since he requested the warrants in May, Karim Khan, the I.C.C. prosecutor, has come under scrutiny. Earlier this month, the court said it was commissioning an independent investigation into allegations of sexual misconduct against him.

The court announced its decision in a pair of press releases, but it did not make the warrants themselves public. The panel of three judges who signed the warrants said they wanted to protect witnesses and the conduct of ongoing investigations. The court said the judges had disclosed their decision because the crimes addressed in the warrants may be continuing, and because it was “in the interest of victims and their families.”

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In issuing the warrants against Netanyahu and Gallant, the I.C.C. judges resisted months of public and private pressure from Israeli leaders and their allies, including U.S. officials and some in Europe. Over the summer, numerous states, lawyers, researchers and human rights groups filed briefs arguing for or against the court’s jurisdiction in the matter. Karim Khan, the prosecutor who applied for the warrants, has said he received death threats. Court officials have also said they have been increasingly targeted by cyberattacks over the past year.

Here are other world leaders charged with war crimes.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has joined a short list of sitting leaders charged by the International Criminal Court.

The warrant announced against him on Thursday puts Mr. Netanyahu in the same category as Omar Hassan al-Bashir, the deposed president of Sudan, and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. As part of their membership in the court, countries are required to arrest people for whom it has issued warrants, though that obligation has not always been observed.

Here is a closer look at some of the leaders for whom warrants have been issued by the court since its creation more than two decades ago.

Vladimir Putin of Russia

The court issued an arrest warrant for Mr. Putin in March 2023 over crimes committed during Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, including for the forcible deportation of children. A warrant was also issued for Maria Lvova-Belova, Russia’s commissioner for children’s rights.

Mr. Putin has since made several international trips, including to China, which is not a member of the court. His first state visit to an I.C.C. member since the warrant was issued was in September, to Mongolia, where he received a red-carpet welcome.

Omar Hassan al-Bashir of Sudan

The court issued warrants in 2009 and 2010 for Mr. al-Bashir, citing genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes committed in the western region of Darfur.

The court has also charged several other Sudanese officials, including a former defense minister, Abdel Raheem Muhammad Hussein, with crimes in Darfur.

In 2015, Mr. al-Bashir traveled to an African Union summit in South Africa in defiance of the warrant, but was not arrested.

Mr. al-Bashir, 80, was deposed in 2019 after three decades in power, and also faces charges in Sudan related to the 1989 coup that propelled him to power. He could receive the death sentence or life in prison on those charges if convicted.

Muammar el-Qaddafi of Libya

The court issued arrest warrants in 2011 for Libya’s then leader, Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, along with one of his sons and his intelligence chief, accusing them of crimes against humanity during the first two weeks of the uprising in Libya that led to a NATO bombing campaign.

Mr. Qaddafi was killed by rebels in Libya months later and never appeared before the court. His son remains at large.

William Ruto of Kenya

The court dropped a case in 2016 against William Ruto, then Kenya’s deputy president, who had been charged in 2011 with crimes against humanity and other offenses in connection with post-election violence in Kenya in 2007 and 2008. Mr. Ruto was elected president of Kenya in 2022.

Laurent Gbagbo of Ivory Coast

The former president of Ivory Coast, Laurent Gbagbo, was also indicted by the court in 2011 over acts committed during violence after the country’s elections in 2010.

Mr. Gbagbo and another leader in Ivory Coast, Charles Blé Goudé, were acquitted in 2021.

Josep Borrell Fontelles, the European Union’s top diplomat, called for the arrest warrants to be upheld. “The decision of the court has to be respected and implemented,” he told reporters in Amman. “This decision is a binding decision on all state parties of the court, which includes all members of the European Union.”

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Just two weeks ago, Netanyahu fired Gallant over differences on strategy in the Gaza war, a move that set off protests across Israel. Gallant had been pushing for an immediate cease-fire deal that would secure the release of hostages held in Gaza, and his dismissal removed the main proponent in the Israeli government for such an agreement. The two also clashed over domestic issues, particularly the conscription of ultra-Orthodox Israelis.

Netanyahu’s office condemned the I.C.C.’s decision to issue arrest the warrants, rejecting what it described as the court’s “absurd and false accusations.” “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not surrender to the pressures,” the Israeli leader’s office said in a statement. “He will not recoil or withdraw until all of the war’s goals — that were set at the start of the battle — are achieved.”

One practical consequence of an I.C.C. arrest warrant: It will complicate Netanyahu’s travel. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has severely curtailed his trips abroad since the I.C.C. issued a warrant for his arrest last year in relation to the invasion of Ukraine.

Putin has only tested the warrant once — in September, when he visited Mongolia, a country highly dependent on Russia.

Izzat al-Rishq, a senior Hamas official, said in a statement that whether or not the two Israelis were arrested, “the truth that has been revealed is that international justice is with us and against the Zionist entity,” a reference to Israel. He did not immediately comment on the warrant for Muhammad Deif, the Hamas military chief.

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Human Rights Watch welcomed news of the arrest warrants and said they “break through the perception that certain individuals are beyond the reach of the law.” Balkees Jarrah, associate international justice director at the organization, said the I.C.C.’s effectiveness “will depend on governments’ willingness to support justice no matter where abuses are committed and by whom,” adding: “These warrants should finally push the international community to address atrocities and secure justice for all victims in Palestine and Israel.”

The I.C.C. prosecutor had sought warrants for 3 Hamas leaders. At least 2 are now dead.

The International Criminal Court on Thursday issued an arrest warrant for a single Hamas official — not three as the chief prosecutor had initially sought in May. That’s because two of them have since been killed.

Karim Khan, the court’s chief prosecutor, requested the warrants after investigating Hamas’s attack on Israel in October 2023 and Israel’s subsequent bombardment and invasion of Gaza.

In May, Mr. Khan asked the court to issue warrants for Hamas’s top leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar; its political leader, Ismail Haniyeh; and its military chief, Muhammad Deif. He accused them of war crimes and crimes against humanity for the killing of civilians and the capture of hostages during the October 2023 attack, as well as maltreatment of and sexual violence against hostages during their captivity in Gaza.

The requests required approval by judges from the I.C.C., the world’s top criminal court. That took months. In the meantime, Mr. Haniyeh was assassinated in the Iranian capital, Tehran, in July, a killing widely attributed to Israel. The court subsequently announced that it had terminated proceedings against him. And Israeli forces killed Mr. Sinwar in a firefight in Gaza in October.

As for Mr. Deif, Israel claimed to have killed him in an airstrike in Gaza in October. On Thursday, the court said it was “not in a position to determine whether Mr. Deif has been killed or remains alive” and was therefore issuing the warrant for his arrest.

Matthew Mpoke Bigg contributed reporting.

The I.C.C.’s arrest warrants were issued as Netanyahu met with a top U.S. official pushing for a cease-fire in the war between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. The warrants pertained only to Israel’s fight with Hamas in the Gaza Strip, but the conflict has expanded since they were first requested in May.

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Israeli leaders criticized the decision to issue arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant. “The decision has chosen the side of terror and evil over democracy and freedom,” said Isaac Herzog, the Israeli president, accusing the court of turning “the very system of justice into a human shield for Hamas’s crimes against humanity.” Itamar Ben-Gvir, the hardline Israeli national security minister, said Israel should annex the occupied West Bank in response to the court’s decision.

Benny Gantz, an Israeli opposition leader and critic of Netanyahu, slammed the warrants as “a historic disgrace that will never be forgotten.” Many in Israel still see the war in Gaza — launched last year in response to Hamas’s attack on southern Israel — as fundamentally just. While Netanyahu’s opponents have criticized his government’s failure to bring home the hostages taken by Hamas in that attack, there is less criticism over the civilian toll in Gaza.

Israel is not a member of the I.C.C. and does not recognize its jurisdiction in Israel or in Gaza, so Netanyahu and Gallant will not face any risk of arrest at home. But the warrants mean that they could be arrested if they travel to one of the court’s 124 member nations. That includes most European countries, though not the United States.

Israel strikes near Beirut as the U.S. pushes a cease-fire in Lebanon.

Israel resumed its bombing campaign on Thursday in the Hezbollah-controlled area south of Beirut, as a top U.S. envoy visited Israel to talk to officials there and try to nail down the terms of a cease-fire between the two warring sides.

Amos Hochstein, the senior Biden administration official, was expected to meet on Thursday with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to Omer Dostri, the prime minister’s spokesman. A day earlier, Mr. Hochstein wrapped up two days of talks with Lebanese officials and spoke of having made “additional progress” in the quest to end Israel’s yearlong conflict with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.

Speaking to reporters in Beirut on Wednesday, Mr. Hochstein said he would go to Israel “to try to bring this to a close if we can.”

After days of tense calm in the Lebanese capital, Israel began a wave of bombardment overnight on Thursday in the Dahiya, the densely packed area south of the city where Hezbollah holds sway. The airstrikes went on throughout the day, with the Israeli military saying it targeted command headquarters and military infrastructure belonging to the group.

Israel’s attacks in and around Beirut intensified in the run-up to Mr. Hochstein’s visit to Lebanon, a strategy that analysts said was intended to pressure Hezbollah into agreeing to a cease-fire on terms favorable to Israel.

There still appear to be a number of sticking points that would need to be hashed out in any truce deal, including Israeli officials’ demand that they be able to act militarily against Hezbollah if it were to break the terms of an agreement. That is likely to be viewed by Hezbollah and the Lebanese government as an infringement on the country’s sovereignty.

In a televised address on Wednesday during Mr. Hochstein’s visit to Beirut, Hezbollah’s new leader, Naim Qassem, said that the group had provided its response to the U.S. cease-fire proposal, and that peace now depended on Israel’s response and the “seriousness” of Mr. Netanyahu.

If negotiations broke down, he warned, Hezbollah was prepared for a “long war.”

Israel’s conflict with Hezbollah, a group backed by Iran, escalated in September, and has killed more than 3,500 people in Lebanon and displaced almost a quarter of the population. It is now the bloodiest conflict inside Lebanon since the country’s civil war, which lasted from 1975 to 1990.

Here is what else to know:

  • West Bank raid: Israeli security forces killed nine Palestinians in and around Jenin, in the occupied West Bank, over the last two days, according to a statement by the Israeli Army and the Shin Bet security service. The deaths occurred in an Israeli airstrike and in gun battles during a two-day raid that the Israeli authorities said targeted Palestinian militants. Wafa, the Palestinian Authority’s official news agency, said that the raid caused extensive damage to infrastructure and that more than 19 people were injured.

  • Assassination plot: Three Palestinian residents of Hebron in the West Bank were indicted in an Israeli military court this week on charges of plotting to assassinate the national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, and his son, according to a joint statement by the Israel Police and Shin Bet. The authorities accused the primary defendant, Ismail Ibrahim Awadi, of monitoring Mr. Ben-Gvir’s travel routes and methods and of contacting Hezbollah and Hamas militants with the aim of getting weapons.

Adam Rasgon and Myra Noveck contributed reporting.

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The U.S. vetoes a Gaza cease-fire resolution at the U.N.

The United States on Wednesday vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution calling for an immediate and unconditional cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, where a humanitarian crisis is intensifying and the fighting shows no signs of ending.

Fourteen Security Council members voted for the resolution, while only the United States voted against it.

The United States said it vetoed the resolution, the fifth the Council has taken up, because it did not make the cease-fire contingent on the release of the hostages held in Gaza. The resolution does call for the release of all hostages, but the wording suggests that their release would come only after a cease-fire were implemented.

The veto was the fourth time the United States blocked an effort by the Council to demand a cease-fire since the war began over a year ago, when Hamas led an attack on Israel and took more than 200 people hostage. More than 40,000 people have been killed in Gaza over the course of the war, according to the local health authorities, and a U.N.-backed panel warned that the territory faces the risk of famine.

The veto comes as Washington has been working for months to help negotiate a cease-fire between the parties and a deal to release the hostages. About 100 hostages remain in Gaza, and the Israeli authorities believe that around a third are dead.

“We could not support an unconditional cease-fire that failed to release the hostages,” said Robert A. Wood, an American ambassador to the United Nations. “These two urgent goals are inextricably linked. This resolution abandoned that necessity.”

The resolution called for an immediate and unconditional cease-fire, the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, increased and unhindered delivery of humanitarian aid and for all parties to enable the battered Palestinian aid agency UNRWA to carry out its work in the territory.

The resolution was put forth by 10 nonpermanent members of the Security Council: Algeria, Ecuador, Guyana, Japan, Malta, Mozambique, Republic of Korea, Sierra Leone, Slovenia and Switzerland.

“It is a sad day for the Security Council, for the United Nations and for the international community,” said Algeria’s ambassador, Amar Bendjama. He said the 14 members who supported the resolution had spoken for the wider international community.

The draft resolution was negotiated for weeks, Guyana’s ambassador, Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, said ahead of the vote. She said the Council needed to respond to concerns “over the catastrophic humanitarian situation in Gaza,” and particularly the dire situation in northern Gaza.

Although Security Council resolutions are considered to be international law, the Council has no means of enforcing resolutions. It could impose punitive measures, such as sanctions, but that would also require member states to agree.

The Security Council, whose permanent members are divided over the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, has struggled to speak in one voice and play an effective role in mediating or ending these conflicts. The United States’ staunch support for Israel, and the resulting deadlock over Gaza in the Council, has generated criticism and frustration from the wider U.N. membership, including from some of America’s closest allies, the permanent council members Britain and France.

The Council has tried to bring the war in Gaza to the table for action in the past year with multiple resolutions. The United States blocked three previous resolutions calling for a cease-fire and release of hostages saying at the time that Israel had the right to defend itself and it was not yet time for the war to end.

Russia and China vetoed an American resolution in March that called for “an immediate and sustained cease-fire,” in a vote in which Algeria joined them and Guyana abstained. That month, the United States abstained from voting on a resolution that called for a temporary halt to the fighting for the month of Ramadan.

Israel and Iran Seemed on the Brink of a Bigger War. What’s Holding Them Back?

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It has been nearly a month since Israel sent more than 100 jets and drones to strike Iranian military bases, and the world is still waiting to see how Iran will respond.

It is a loaded pause in the high-risk conflict this year between the two Middle East powers. Israel’s counterattack came more than three weeks after Iran launched over 180 ballistic missiles — most of which were shot down — on Oct. 1 to avenge the killings of two top Hezbollah and Hamas leaders.

The first volley of strikes came in April, when Iran decided to avenge an attack on one of its diplomatic compounds by directly bombarding Israel with at least 300 missiles and drones. Even then, Israel waited days, not hours, to respond.

Not long ago, analysts might have predicted that any direct strike by Iran on Israel, or by Israel on Iran, would have prompted an immediate conflagration. But it has not played out that way.

Partly that is the result of frantic diplomacy behind the scenes by allies including the United States, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. But the calculated, limited strikes also reflect the fact that the alternative — a war of “shock and awe” between Israel and Iran — could lead to dire consequences not just for the region but also much of the world.

“The nature of the attacks seem to speak to a shared acknowledgment of the acute risk of an even deeper regional war that both sides still probably want to avoid,” said Julien Barnes-Dacey, the Middle East director at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

That does not mean there are not dangers to the current approach, he noted. “It’s an extremely precarious and likely unsustainable pathway that could quickly spin out of control,” he said. “There is also a possibility that Israel may be more deliberately working its way up the escalatory ladder with the intention of eventually doing something wider and more decisive.”

In a video message last week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel appeared to warn that he could ratchet up the intensity of the conflict if Tehran were to strike again. “Every day, Israel gets stronger,” Mr. Netanyahu said. “The world has seen but a fraction of our power.”

The tit-for-tat strikes by Iran and Israel bear little resemblance to warfare known as shock and awe — the use of overwhelming firepower, superior technology and speed to destroy the enemy’s physical capabilities and its will to resist — that was first introduced as a concept in 1996 by two American military experts.

Perhaps its most memorable demonstration was the barrage of airstrikes that started the American-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, which were followed by ground troops that sent Saddam Hussein into hiding. But its core tactics were deployed earlier, in the 1991 Gulf War, as well as in the American invasion of Afghanistan in 2001.

Shock and awe warfare would be difficult to carry out in this current Middle East conflict, where launching ground troops would likely require more land, air and sea assets than either Israel or Iran would want to deploy across the hundreds of miles that separate them.

There is also an ongoing debate in military circles as to whether a shock and awe offensive is still viable. Autonomous weapons and artificial intelligence are transforming warfare, argued the retired Joint Chiefs chairman, Gen. Mark A. Milley, and Eric Schmidt, the former Google chief executive, in an August analysis for Foreign Affairs. “The era of ‘shock and awe’ campaigns — in which Washington could decimate its adversaries with overwhelming firepower — is finished,” they wrote.

Two analysts at Britain’s Royal Navy Strategic Studies Centre countered last month that shock and awe warfare is evolving, not over, and pointed to Israel’s exploding pager and walkie-talkie attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Dozens of people were killed, and thousands wounded, but the fear that the attacks created struck a psychological blow to the militant group. Two weeks later, Israeli airstrikes killed Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s longtime leader.

“Far from being a thing of the past, shock and awe must be an integral part of our approach to multi-domain warfare,” they wrote.

For decades, Iran and Israel were locked in a shadow war, with Israel carrying out covert attacks and Iran relying on proxy militias in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen as its front line forces.

All that changed on April 1. While almost all the missiles and drones that Iran aimed at Israel were intercepted, the airstrikes marked the first time that Tehran had directly attacked Israel from Iranian soil.

That put officials around the globe on alert for a broader regional war. Hours after the strikes, Gen. Hossein Salami, the commander in chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said Iran had decided to create “a new equation” in its yearslong conflict with Israel.

But so far, the conflict has been carried out solely with deep precision missile strikes, mainly targeting military bases in the other’s country. Farzan Sabet, an analyst on Iran and Middle East politics at the Geneva Graduate Institute in Switzerland, said the restrained volley of missile attacks appeared to signal a new kind of warfare.

“Deep precision strikes aren’t new, but their use on such scale as the centerpiece” of a conflict “is novel,” Mr. Sabet said.

Still, “we may not have seen the worst of it,” he said, noting that Tehran had recently signaled that it was prepared to strike Israel’s key energy sources — including gas fields, power plants and oil import terminals — if Iran’s civilian infrastructure was hit. “That would be a new element,” Mr. Sabet said.

He and other analysts said the airstrikes so far, combined with the public warnings that preceded them, were part of a deterrence campaign by both nations to try to keep the conflict from spiraling out of control.

“It’s ‘I slap, therefore you get slapped, so you understand, and so now you can decide whether you want to step down or you want to step up,’” said Assaf Orion, a retired Israeli brigadier general and defense strategist at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “The fact is that both parties are taking their time to calculate, to collaborate, to shape their own operations,” he added.

While Israel has not used conventional shock and awe against Iran, it has been far less restrained in its attacks on Iran’s proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, as the pager attacks demonstrated. And Hamas’s attack on Israel, which incited the ongoing wars on Oct. 7, 2023, was brutal and unconstrained.

Israel has since pounded Gaza with airstrikes that have killed more than 43,000 people, many of whom were women and children. In Lebanon, the United Nations estimates that more than 3,300 people have been killed by Israeli attacks since Oct. 8, 2023, when Hezbollah joined the fight to show solidarity with Palestinians.

But Iran has been spared the scale of death and humanitarian disaster that Israel has exacted on its proxies. It has even sought to portray its own missile attacks against Israel as a resounding success.

Mr. Sabet said Tehran appeared to care as much about showing its public the number of “spectacular” strikes it was launching against Israel as about how many of them hit their targets. “Iran is trying to have the last word, in a sense,” he said. “It wants to show a response, and show its domestic and regional audiences that’s done something, but it doesn’t want to escalate the conflict.”

But, he added, “I’m just not sure that’ll work.”

Israel’s debilitating attacks on Hezbollah and Hamas, on which Iran has long relied for what it calls forward defense, are a blow to Tehran. And the re-election of President Donald J. Trump, a staunch ally of Mr. Netanyahu, changes the equation again.

One of Mr. Trump’s close advisers, the tech billionaire Elon Musk, met last week with Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations in what was described as an opening attempt to diffuse tensions between Tehran and the incoming American president.

But Mr. Trump is widely expected to make U.S. foreign policy more favorable to Israel, and is stacking his cabinet with Iran hawks. That could very well bring the war between Iran and Israel into new terrain.

At Least 38 Killed as Gunmen Ambush Shiite Convoys in Pakistan

At least 38 people, most of them Shiite Muslims, were killed in northwestern Pakistan on Thursday as gunmen ambushed convoys of vehicles that had been under the protection of security forces.

The attack was one of the deadliest in months of sectarian violence in the Kurram region, a scenic mountainous district bordering Afghanistan.

Pakistan is overwhelmingly Sunni Muslim, but Kurram’s population of 800,000 is nearly half Shiite Muslim, contributing to a cauldron of tribal tensions.

Conflicts, often rooted in disputes over land, frequently escalate into deadly sectarian clashes. The violence highlights the government’s persistent struggle to maintain control in the region.

Javedullah Mehsud, a senior district government officer, and Hidayat Pasdar, a journalist from Kurram, said that the latest attack involved separate ambushes of two convoys passing through Sunni-majority villages.

The vehicles had been traveling in opposite directions on the main road connecting Parachinar, a Shiite-majority town in Kurram, to Peshawar, the provincial capital 135 miles away.

The road, a vital lifeline for the district, had only recently reopened after being closed for three weeks because of an ambush on Oct. 12 that left at least 16 people dead.

During the closure, residents of Parachinar were cut off from essential supplies, including food and fuel, leading to a growing humanitarian crisis.

Earlier this month, thousands of people from Parachinar staged a peaceful 10-mile march demanding the road’s reopening and guarantees of security. The authorities responded by temporarily restoring access and promising government-protected convoys three times a week.

No group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack, but various militant groups, including Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, or T.T.P., have a history of targeting Shiite Muslims in the district.

Ali Amin Gandapur, the chief minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, which includes Kurram, condemned the attack and directed the authorities to establish a provincial highway police force to secure key transport routes.

The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan, an independent rights body, said that the repeated attacks in Kurram showed the federal and provincial governments’ failure to protect citizens.

“We demand immediate and decisive steps from both governments to permanently break this cycle of violence,” the commission said in a statement.

This year has been particularly deadly in Kurram. In late July, a weeklong clash between Sunni and Shiite communities left 46 dead and hundreds injured. Another bout of violence in September claimed 45 lives and wounded dozens.

“This violence has become a cycle that the authorities seem unable to break,” said Sharif Hussain, a university student from Parachinar who had planned to travel to Peshawar in the coming days. “The state has abandoned us. Even in security-escorted convoys, we are left to die at the hands of terrorists.”

To Quit Their Jobs, Sugar Workers Risk Kidnapping, Assault and Murder

When his daughter turned 12, Gighe Dutta decided this would be the year that he and his wife quit cutting sugar cane in the fields of western India. The work required a long migration, and his daughter would have to drop out of school — the first step for many girls on a lifelong path of abuse and poverty.

But his employer refused to let them quit. He and his friends beat up Mr. Dutta and forced him into a car, Mr. Dutta said. According to a report that he filed with a local government agency, the men drove him to a mill that says it supplies sugar to many international companies.

Mr. Dutta was locked there for two days, he said, and left to sleep on the floor to reconsider his decision.

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Israel Strikes Near Beirut as U.S. Envoy Pushes Ahead on Cease-Fire Talks

Israel Strikes Near Beirut as U.S. Envoy Pushes Ahead on Cease-Fire Talks

The envoy, Amos Hochstein, was in Israel and planned to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, seeking a truce in the country’s war with the militant group Hezbollah.

Euan Ward

Reporting from Beirut, Lebanon

Israel resumed its bombing campaign on Thursday in the Hezbollah-controlled area south of Beirut, as a top U.S. envoy visited Israel to talk to officials there and try to nail down the terms of a cease-fire between the two warring sides.

Amos Hochstein, the senior Biden administration official, was expected to meet on Thursday with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to Omer Dostri, the prime minister’s spokesman. A day earlier, Mr. Hochstein wrapped up two days of talks with Lebanese officials and spoke of having made “additional progress” in the quest to end Israel’s yearlong conflict with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.

Speaking to reporters in Beirut on Wednesday, Mr. Hochstein said he would go to Israel “to try to bring this to a close if we can.”

After days of tense calm in the Lebanese capital, Israel issued new evacuation orders early on Thursday for the Dahiya, the densely packed area south of the city where Hezbollah holds sway. That was soon followed by airstrikes, which the Israeli military said had targeted the group’s command headquarters and military infrastructure.

Israel’s attacks in and around Beirut intensified in the run-up to Mr. Hochstein’s visit to Lebanon, a strategy that analysts said was intended to pressure Hezbollah into agreeing to a cease-fire on terms favorable to Israel.

There still appear to be a number of sticking points that would need to be hashed out in any truce deal, including Israeli officials’ demand that they be able to act militarily against Hezbollah if it were to break the terms of an agreement. That is likely to be viewed by Hezbollah and the Lebanese government as an infringement on the country’s sovereignty.

In a televised address on Wednesday during Mr. Hochstein’s visit to Beirut, Hezbollah’s new leader, Naim Qassem, said that the group had provided its response to the U.S. cease-fire proposal, and that peace now depended on Israel’s response and the “seriousness” of Mr. Netanyahu.

If negotiations broke down, he warned, Hezbollah was prepared for a “long war.”

Israel’s conflict with Hezbollah, a group backed by Iran, escalated in September, and has killed more than 3,500 people in Lebanon and displaced almost a quarter of the population. It is now the bloodiest conflict inside Lebanon since the country’s civil war, which lasted from 1975 to 1990.

Here is what else to know:

  • West Bank raid: Israeli security forces killed nine Palestinians in and around Jenin, in the occupied West Bank, over the last two days, according to a statement by the Israeli Army and the Shin Bet security service. The deaths occurred in an Israeli airstrike and in gun battles during a two-day raid that the Israeli authorities said targeted Palestinian militants. Wafa, the Palestinian Authority’s official news agency, said that the raid caused extensive damage to infrastructure and that more than 19 people were injured.

  • Assassination plot: Three Palestinian residents of Hebron in the West Bank were indicted in an Israeli military court this week on charges of plotting to assassinate the national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, and his son, according to a joint statement by the Israel Police and Shin Bet. The authorities accused the primary defendant, Ismail Ibrahim Awadi, of monitoring Mr. Ben-Gvir’s travel routes and methods and of contacting Hezbollah and Hamas militants with the aim of getting weapons.

Adam Rasgon and Myra Noveck contributed reporting.