CNBC make it 2025-02-09 00:25:30


Could an Eagles Super Bowl victory tank the stock market? History says yes, but logic says no

As one of CNBC’s resident Eagles fans, I was appalled to open my inbox earlier this week to find an email chain with the subject line, “Why the Bulls Hate the Birds.”

Circulating among my colleagues was data from Carson Group chief market strategist Ryan Detrick, who pointed out that Philadelphia Super Bowl and World Series wins had historically coincided with stock market calamity.

The 1929 stock market crash? Same year the Philadelphia Athletics won the World Series. And 2018, the year the Eagles won their first Super Bowl, was the worst year for stocks since 2008.

“Who should you root for? Personally, I can’t stand either team, but I guess I’ll just say when Philly wins a Super Bowl or World Series really bad things tend to happen,” Detrick wrote in the post, followed by this ghastly chart.

Look, I don’t expect anyone to side with Philly fans. I have a Jason Kelce t-shirt that says, “No one likes us. We don’t care.” I get it, we’re obnoxious.

But if you’re going to back the Chiefs in this one, it shouldn’t be because you’re afraid of declines in your portfolio. After all, this bit about Philly sports victories and stock market slides is just the latest in a long line of stock “indicators” that market experts throw out there for fun.

Beware of ‘fun’ market indicators

The stuff that actually drives movement in the economy and stock markets — corporate earnings, consumer sentiment, interest rates — can be dry. And those of us who write about these things like to spice it up every once in a while with fun little nuggets of data from stock market history.

Sure, you could pay attention to what the Federal Reserve is doing. But what if you could tell what was going to happen some other way?

Take the so-called hemline indicator, which says skirt styles tend to be shorter during up markets (think the Roaring 20s, the booming 80s) and dresses get more modest during economic downturns. In that vein, maybe the event to pay attention to this weekend isn’t the Super Bowl, but New York Fashion Week.

Or you can ignore it all if you believe in the January barometer. This market truism suggests that the stock market’s calendar year results tend to follow what stocks did in January. That’s good news this year; the S&P 500 rose by about 3% in the first month of the year.

However, the historical correlation is aided by the fact that the market has historically trended upward, period. Stocks have produced positive calendar year returns 71% of the time since 1945, including 14 out of 29 times they declined in January.  

As any of the stories related to these indicators will remind you: past performance is no guarantee of future results. Even if any of these indicators were reliable predictors of stock market movements in the past (they’re weren’t), no one can tell where investments are headed in the future.

And even if you believed in these sorts of of things, the evidence against Philly sports is flimsier than it looks. Sure the Phillies won the title in 2008, and that was a famously bad year for stocks. The Global Financial Crisis and associated bear market started in 2007, and the World Series is famously played in October.

And the 2007-2009 bear market ended less than six months after the Phillies won, in March 2009, so you could also argue they helped turn things around.

Also, why just the World Series and the Super Bowl? Should we not consider the Sixers’ title in 1983, a year that saw a 17% climb in the S&P 500? What about 1975? The year the Flyers hoisted their second Stanley Cup, the market rose by 32% (following a 30% decline, but who’s counting?).

Plus, as Detrick points out, the classic Super Bowl indicator tells us that the market tends to favor winners from the NFC over the AFC. That would favor the Eagles, though the last two years following Chiefs titles have been pretty spectacular for investors.

So what is the neutral fan to make of all this? Detrick would be the first to tell you: nothing. Your portfolio doesn’t move based on how long dresses are or who wins sporting events. So feel free to pick a team based on uniform color or quarterback attractiveness or your feelings on Taylor Swift.

Simply put, if the market tanks, it won’t be because the Eagles lifted the Lombardi Trophy on Sunday. So say it with me: go birds.

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I’ve studied over 200 kids—the highly successful ones have parents who did 9 things early on

When we think of successful kids, many of us picture straight-A students, sports trophies, and college acceptance letters.

But after years of studying over 200 parent-child relationships, I’ve found that true success is more about raising kids who are confident, emotionally secure, and deeply connected to themselves and the world around them.

The parents who really understood this embraced sometimes unconventional strategies that prioritized curiosity, a love for learning, and emotional intelligence over societal expectations.

Here are nine things they did differently early on:

1. They worked on themselves

Instead of worrying so much about how their kids reacted to challenging situations, these parents understood that their behavior would influence their child’s level of resilience. They modeled mental and emotional strength by being mindful of how they managed their stress in front of their kids.

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2. They refrained from always saying ‘good job!’

Instead, they encouraged reflection with “you should be so proud of yourself” or “you worked very hard on this — how does it feel?”

While well-meaning, “good job” can create reliance on external approval. These parents focused on fostering intrinsic motivation, helping their child take pride in their own achievements.

3. They focused on their relationship with the child

Through quality time, active listening, and shared experiences, they made their kids feel valued, safe, and understood. This also fostered the child’s confidence to take risks and thrive.

4. They didn’t punish their kids

They avoided punishment, knowing it builds resentment and disconnection, not skills. Instead, they let natural consequences teach lessons.

For instance, if a child forgot to do their homework, they faced explaining it to their teacher — a chance to learn responsibility and problem-solving. This approach built accountability and resilience.

5. They didn’t reward academic achievement

Instead of offering rewards for good grades, they focused on cultivating a love for learning. Whether their child excelled or struggled, they kept the focus on growth and made it clear that grades didn’t define their worth.

6. They valued questions over answers

They encouraged their kids to ask “why” and “how,” rather than simply accepting the “right” answer. This fostered curiosity and gave their child the confidence to challenge the status quo — key traits of future leaders.

7. They let their kids teach them something

Whether solving a math problem or explaining a favorite game, these moments gave kids a sense of importance. By stepping back and letting their child take the lead, these parents showed respect for their child’s abilities and nurtured their self-esteem.

8. They made reading a daily habit

Reading wasn’t a chore — it was woven into daily life. Whether picture books before bedtime or novels on lazy afternoons, reading became a natural and enjoyable part of their world, fostering creativity and a lifelong love for learning.

9. They taught their kids to embrace their emotions

They treated emotions as valuable, not something to fix or avoid. When their child was upset after losing a game, for example, they might have said, “I can see how much this matters to you. It’s hard to lose something you care about.” This simple validation helped their child process emotions and build resilience.

Reem Raouda is a parenting coach, mother, and creator of BOUND, a parent-child connection journal designed to nurture emotional intelligence and self-worth. She is also the founder of Connected Discipline Method. Through her coaching and courses — including Power Struggles No More — she has helped hundreds of families foster connection and harmony. Follow her on Instagram.

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I’ve been a therapist for 30 years: 6 mistakes the happiest couples avoid early on

In relationships, no action is too small. Every little change you make matters.

As a couples therapist with over 30 years of experience, I’ve seen partners repeat many of the same mistakes, often unknowingly. Typically, these unhelpful patterns started early on in the relationship

But don’t be concerned if you’re making some mistakes now. Simple changes, at any time, can go a long way to turn things around. 

Here are six common tendencies to avoid in a relationship, especially in the early years:

1. Winging it

Most people are. We do what was modeled to us growing up, or maybe the opposite. 

While we educate ourselves as professionals and parents, most of us don’t realize we need to learn how to be a good partner: to deal with conflict effectively, to become a good listener, to repair, and to continually invest in staying connected. 

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I invite you to see yourself as partners-in-training and proactively spend time learning from articles, books, and even therapy. 

2. Holding your partner responsible for your happiness and well-being

A fulfilling relationship, where the love keeps growing, begins when each person understands that their happiness and fulfillment belong in their own hands, not their partner’s. This is precisely why “relationship with self” is placed as the first pillar in my book, “A Soulful Marriage: Healing Your Relationship with Responsibility, Growth, Priority, and Purpose,” and as the basis for building long-lasting love. 

When you invest in self-awareness, you set yourself up to live more authentically and happily. Knowing yourself becomes the gateway to treating yourself with loving kindness, challenging yourself to grow, and ultimately taking responsibility for your own well-being. 

3. Viewing conflict as a bad sign

One of the most overlooked mistakes young couples make stems from the belief that a good relationship should be smooth sailing, with minimal fighting or disconnection. The misconception often keeps them from coming to counseling sooner because they fear that admitting to tension means something worse than it really does. 

But a living, breathing relationship or marriage actually means disconnecting and reconnecting many times. This is how we build trust and grow. Here’s what I often say when couples first enter therapy:

“I’m glad you’re here. Your friction is not a bad sign. It means you’re being called to grow. The key is to learn how to approach your conflict to help you grow personally and closer together. This has to start with normalizing your challenges and embracing the issues you’re having rather than seeking quick relief or avoiding them.” 

4. Trying to change your partner 

When something about your partner gets under your skin, the natural inclination is to try to change them.  

Yes, it’s important to address issues that are bothering you. But more often than not, there’s too much focus on what’s wrong. When you feel the inclination to criticize or change your partner, ask yourself: 

  • “Could I use this moment to become more patient, secure with myself, tolerant, or unconditionally loving?” 
  • “Is there growth for me here?” 
  • “Do I do something similar?” 
  • “Am I expecting perfection?”
  • “Am I appreciative enough of all that my partner is and gives?” 

5. Losing the priority

In the beginning, it’s easy to cherish our partners. But making sure that our mate feels like the most important other person in our life needs to be an ongoing priority. 

The most common threat I see to that priority is when a couple becomes a family with children. In-laws, work, or too much concern about what others think at the expense of your partner’s needs or feelings can also interfere.   

Young couples should be on the lookout from the get-go for simple ways to fight for their relationship and make their partner feel cherished. This could mean having a date night and a growth night, the former for having fun and the latter for talking about what’s feeling good or not so good in the relationship. 

6. Thinking small

It’s important to take care of ourselves, invest in our own happiness, and nurture the people in our immediate circles and community. At the same time, to capitalize on all that a relationship can bring into our lives, we need to think bigger.  

Looking for ways that you — individually and as a couple — can make the world better adds a dimension of strength and fulfillment that no amount of need-satisfaction can bring to your bond.  

Don’t feel like you have to save the world in a day. You can start small, like volunteering, bringing a meal to someone who is sick, or welcoming guests into your home. The idea is to nourish, as a couple, the parts of you that love to give, in ever-expanding ways.

I find that when my husband and I are putting our energies together for the sake of others, the spirit of generosity smooths over our differences and brings us even closer. 

Rachel Glik, EdD, is a licensed professional counselor with over 30 years as a couples and individual therapist. She has taught and created workshops for organizations such as: YPO, The Kabbalah Centre, Onevillage, University of Missouri and Psychotherapy Saint Louis. Rachel is also the author of “A Soulful Marriage: Healing Your Relationship With Responsibility, Growth, Priority, and Purpose.”

Want to up your AI skills and be more productive? Take CNBC’s new online course How to Use AI to Be More Successful at Work. Expert instructors will teach you how to get started, practical uses, tips for effective prompt-writing, and mistakes to avoid. Sign up now and use coupon code EARLYBIRD for an introductory discount of 30% off $67 (+ taxes and fees) through February 11, 2025.

43 years ago, Steve Jobs said this is what sets highly successful people apart—how to master the skill

When I was struggling in high school calculus, a teacher knocked my intelligence with this gem: “I guess you’re either born with it, or you aren’t.” 

But as an expert in leadership and mental strength, I’d argue he was wrong — and I’m pretty sure Steve Jobs would agree. 

“Have you ever thought about what it is to be intelligent?” The legendary Apple cofounder asked his audience in 1982 when he won a “Golden Plate” award from the Academy of Achievement. “Probably some of you have, right? Because you meet your friend, and he’s pretty dumb, and maybe you think you’re smarter and you wonder what the difference is?”

A lot of it, he said, is the ability to zoom out and make connections that other people can’t see. 

“You have to not have the same bag of experiences as everyone else does — or else you’re going to make the same connections.” What comes through in stories from some of the most creative, innovative, and successful people, he said, is that “they had a variety of experiences which they could draw upon in order to try to solve a problem or attack a particular dilemma in a kind of unique way.” 

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That’s it. You become vastly smarter when you’re good at making new and interesting connections, which you’re able to do with a vast array of experiences.

Sounds simple in theory. But in practice, it’s easy to get stuck in the same old patterns and ways of doing things instead of accumulating new experiences. 

Breaking out of these periods of malaise requires mental strength — a topic I cover in depth in my book, “The Mentally Strong Leader” — and the discipline to make four commitments to yourself:

1. ‘I will take responsibility for being in a rut’

A friend told me she’d been miserable in her job for years and wanted to start over in a new city. She’d also quietly blamed her partner all that time, assuming he’d never move away from his family.

After we talked, she accepted responsibility for the pattern she’d fallen into and discussed a move with her partner, who was actually eager to accommodate.  

Sometimes we fall into a rut and look at everyone and everything around us as the reason we’re in that rut. But getting  “unstuck” starts with you. Be honest if you’ve put yourself in “park” and take ownership to get back in “drive.”

2. ‘I will recognize the pattern I’m in’

This commitment is about recognizing the specifics of the pattern you’ve fallen into and the habits weighing you down. For example: 

  • You repeatedly tell yourself, “I’ll wait.”  
  • You tend to avoid new challenges when they arise. 
  • You’re always justifying why you’re stuck where you are.
  • You’re continually convincing yourself that “things will change.” 
  • You want things to change, but don’t want to change them yourself. 

You recognize patterns like these by having the discipline to step back once in a while to work on your life, not just in it. Ask yourself: Where and how do I seem stuck? Where am I holding myself back from things I want to accomplish, or the life I want to live? 

If it helps, talk these questions through with a friend who knows you well

3. ‘I will recommit to the idea of being challenged’

When you’re stuck in a rut, you tend to repel challenges in favor of staying in your comfort zone. You’re in a mode of repetition and choose the path of least resistance. You’re not challenging much of anything — your assumptions, the status quo, or yourself.  

Remind yourself how exhilarating it can be to be challenged. Start with something small and doable. It could be anything, like attempting to play pickleball or finally taking Spanish lessons.

Begin to feel the thrill of learning, growing, and building your bank of experiences to draw from. 

4. ‘I will get going’ 

It’s hard to change course if you don’t have a destination. Ask yourself: Where do I want to go? What’s my new goal? What’s next?  

When you have that goal, write it down. Research shows that just by writing down your goals, you’re far more likely to achieve them versus simply thinking about them. You’re likelier still to succeed when you tell a friend, and even more so when you regularly share your progress.

Start by taking a single, small step. Maybe you want to get out of that nowhere job and into an industry you’re passionate about. Schedule lunch with a friend who works in that industry. Maybe you want to break out of a stale routine of chores and errands you and your partner have fallen into, so you schedule a weekend adventure to somewhere you’ve never been before. You get the idea. 

Even the tiniest step can be invigorating — helping you start accumulating new experiences and making novel connections. And that’s just smart.

Scott Mautz is a popular speaker, trainer, and LinkedIn Learning instructor. He’s a former senior executive of Procter & Gamble, where he ran several of the company’s largest multi-billion-dollar businesses. He is the author of ”The Mentally Strong Leader: Build the Habits to Productively Regulate Your Emotions, Thoughts, and Behaviors.” Follow him on LinkedIn.

Want to up your AI skills and be more productive? Take CNBC’s new online course How to Use AI to Be More Successful at Work. Expert instructors will teach you how to get started, practical uses, tips for effective prompt-writing, and mistakes to avoid. Sign up now and use coupon code EARLYBIRD for an introductory discount of 30% off $67 (+ taxes and fees) through February 11, 2025.

CEO of $28M company: Here’s the best advice I’ve ever received—I still use it to motivate myself

Running a company isn’t for the faint of heart, says Rent the Runway CEO Jennifer Hyman.

On rough days, she relies on a single piece of advice from a mentor, she says: “There are only two reasons why a founder leaves their company or stops working toward their dreams … either you stop believing [in it], or you’re tired.”

The observation came from Dan Rosensweig, a former Rent the Runway board member who’s currently the executive chairman of technology company Chegg, says Hyman. It helped her shift her mindset at work: If she starts feeling “unhappy and frustrated and blaming it on Rent the Runway,” she reminds herself that she still believes in the mission of her company, which helps her stay motivated.

Hyman, 44, co-founded Rent the Runway with her Harvard Business School classmate Jennifer Fleiss in 2009, launching the clothing rental service with little, if any, existing competition. Today, the clothing rental market is a more mainstream industry, with competitors ranging from Armoire to Urban Outfitters-owned Nuuly.

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Some of them even threaten to outpace Rent the Runway. Nuuly brought in less than half of Rent the Runway’s revenue during their 2023 fiscal years, but was probably closer to profitability: It posted a $13.9 million operating loss, much smaller than Rent the Runway’s net loss of $113.2 million, according to SEC filings. (Urban Outfitters didn’t share Nuuly’s net income figures for 2023, and Rent the Runway hasn’t released its 2024 earnings statements yet.)

“There are [more] people that [rent clothing] every year,” says Hyman, whose company currently has a market capitalization of $27.76 million. “I’m a bigger believer today than I’ve ever been.”

‘Every few years, make a choice for yourself’

Checking in on your work self every once in a while — making sure you still believe in your job — can be beneficial to your career and paycheck, some experts say.

Employees with a strong “sense of mattering,” or a perception of how their work positively impacts the world, are more likely to be satisfied with their jobs and land promotions, psychiatrist Gabriella Rosen Kellerman told CNBC Make It last year.

As for the exhaustion element of Rosensweig’s observation, Hyman says being tired simply isn’t a good enough reason to give up on something you believe in.

“If you’re tired, there are lots of ways to change that,” she says. “You can change the way you work. You can change the energy you bring to the office every day and change the people around you. You can take a vacation.”

Hyman has a few vacation rules for herself, she says: Her vacations must be longer than five days, because it takes that long for her to stop habitually checking Slack, she must stay away from screens and she spends the time with her children to help her disconnect from work.

“I think [Rosensweig’s] advice stands for more than just your job,” she says. “We should [reflect] as it relates to our marriages, our friendships … Every few years, make a choice for yourself, figure out what you believe. It helps you feel like life isn’t just happening to you.”

Want to up your AI skills and be more productive? Take CNBC’s new online course How to Use AI to Be More Successful at Work. Expert instructors will teach you how to get started, practical uses, tips for effective prompt-writing, and mistakes to avoid. Sign up now and use coupon code EARLYBIRD for an introductory discount of 30% off $67 (+ taxes and fees) through February 11, 2025.

Plus, sign up for CNBC Make It’s newsletter to get tips and tricks for success at work, with money and in life.