The New York Times 2024-07-12 20:09:51


Middle East Crisis: U.S. Officials See Hopeful Signs in Gaza Cease-Fire Talks

Top News

It will take days to know whether talks yield a breakthrough, people briefed on them say.

Some American officials have grown more optimistic that a deal to release Israeli hostages held in Gaza in return for a cease-fire is at hand. But people briefed on the talks say it will be days until it is clear whether a breakthrough has been achieved because of difficulties in communication between Hamas officials in Qatar and the group’s leaders in Gaza.

Other officials said that previous moments of hope about an agreement had been dashed by both the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Hamas. In Washington, the White House national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, reflected both the optimism and the caution, noting that many details still needed to be hammered out to secure a deal.

“There’s still miles to go before we close if we are able to close,” Mr. Sullivan told reporters on Thursday. “So I don’t want to say that it’s immediately around the corner, but it does not have to be far out in the distance if everyone comes in this with the will to get it done.”

This week, the White House dispatched a top aide to the president, Brett McGurk, to Israel for discussions with the government there, while William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director, traveled to Doha, Qatar, for talks with the Egyptian, Qatari and Israeli officials negotiating over the release of the hostages.

On Friday, Mr. McGurk will lead the American delegation for further talks in Cairo on the framework of a three-phase deal backed that is backed by the United States and the United Nations. After holding meetings with the Israeli negotiating team on Thursday, Mr. Netanyahu dispatched a delegation led by the head of Israel’s Shin Bet intelligence service to Cairo for continued discussions.

Negotiators have tried to overcome hurdles to a deal by reaching precise agreements on the exchanges of Palestinian prisoners for Israeli hostages in its first phase. At the same time they have pushed for agreement on the broader framework for subsequent phases of the deal.

The framework discussions include the two most contentious issues: whether Israel will agree to end the war, withdraw from Gaza and respect a permanent cease-fire; and whether Hamas will agree to give up control of the Gaza Strip, according to a person briefed on the negotiations.

Both Israel and Hamas remain exceptionally wary about whether the other side is truly ready to make concessions.

Husam Badran, a senior Hamas official, said his group had shown “great flexibility” in discussions with mediators, especially in making language changes, but had held firm to its demand that Israel agree to a permanent cease-fire.

“We’re not obstinate and rigid in negotiating,” he said in an interview in Doha. “If there are some phrases that will make the negotiations easier and lead to the same result — the end of the war — we have no problem.”

Palestinians have grown weary of the war, which has killed tens of thousands of people in Gaza. While most still blame Israel for the death and destruction, anger at Hamas — and a willingness to express that resentment — is growing.

Key Developments

People in Gaza City talk about why they won’t flee, and other news.

  • Few people in Gaza City appeared to be heeding an Israeli warning that laid out four “safe corridors” for them to flee south. In interviews, people in the city said they had decided to stay in their homes or in places where they have been sheltering the dangers from Israeli forces on the evacuation routes, and knowing there is no safety in the south.

  • The Israeli military acknowledged wide-ranging failures that allowed Hamas-led militants to commit a massacre in the Israeli border village of Be’eri during the Oct. 7 attack on southern Israel. The findings came as part of a broader military inquiry into the attack that also exonerated a general’s decision to authorize tank fire on a house in Be’eri where Hamas fighters were holding hostages.

  • The Biden administration will soon permanently shut down the troubled $230 million temporary pier that the U.S. military built to rush humanitarian aid to Gaza, American officials said on Thursday. Maj. Gen. Patrick S. Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary, said the latest effort to re-anchor the pier had failed because of “technical and weather-related issues,” recurring problems that The New York Times highlighted last month.

Researchers try to estimate the true toll of the war by counting ‘excess deaths.’

Gazan health officials say that more than 38,000 people have been killed in nine months of fighting between Israel and Hamas, but researchers are also studying how many people have died as an indirect result of the conflict.

Scientists say that this measurement, known as excess deaths, can provide a truer indication of the toll and scale of conflicts and other social upheaval. They say, for example, that if a person dies from a chronic illness because they are unable to get treatment in a medical facility overburdened by war, that death can be attributed to the conflict.

The question of excess deaths in Gaza was raised in a letter published last week in the medical journal The Lancet, in which three researchers attempted to estimate how many people had died or would die because of the war, on top of the deaths reported by the Gaza Health Ministry. The letter immediately generated debate, with other researchers arguing for caution in any such projection.

One reason to be careful, those researchers said, is that any estimate of excess deaths would rely on data from Gaza’s health sector, which has been devastated by the conflict. Another reason, they said, is that it is hard to predict how epidemics and hunger, two threats to human life that can be triggered by war, will evolve. And Israel has not permitted researchers to enter the enclave since the start of the war last October.

The letter in The Lancet, which said that counting indirect deaths in Gaza was “difficult but essential,” based its estimate on looking at previous studies of recent conflicts, which indicated that three to 15 times as many people died indirectly for every person who had died violently. Applying what they called a “conservative estimate of four indirect deaths per one direct death,” the authors wrote that it was “not implausible” to estimate that about 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributable to the conflict in Gaza.

The letter, which The Lancet said had not been peer-reviewed, as is the case with other letters it publishes, provoked a significant response. The Board of Deputies of British Jews, which represents the Jewish community in Britain, said that the estimate was “little more than conjecture.”

Col. Elad Goren, an official with COGAT, the arm of the Israeli military that implements policy in Gaza, sidestepped a question about excess deaths.

Salim Yusuf, a cardiologist and epidemiologist in Canada who co-wrote the letter, said in an email that the estimate was based on studies of past conflicts and acknowledged that, “inevitably, these are projections.” “The point is that the real numbers of dead will be very large,” he said.

Michael Spagat, a professor of economics at Royal Holloway College at the University of London, who has written about the toll of the war in Gaza, wrote in an analysis that the letter “lacks a solid foundation and is implausible.” He argued that the authors had compared Gaza with a small and unrepresentative sample of other conflicts, and that conditions in Gaza, a small territory under intense international attention, are unique.

In an interview, Mr. Spagat cited other reasons to be cautious when discussing excess deaths in Gaza. He said that fears of major outbreaks of infectious diseases such as cholera have yet to materialize and that, although humanitarian agencies are warning of catastrophic levels of hunger, there is little evidence of widespread deaths because of starvation.

Still, Mr. Spagat said that it was “fair to call attention to the fact that not all of the deaths are going to be direct violent ones.”

The letter in The Lancet is not the first effort to quantify the human toll in Gaza beyond the figures reported by Gazan health authorities.

In February, epidemiologists at Johns Hopkins University and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine produced a model showing three different war scenarios affecting overall deaths in Gaza. They projected that if fighting and humanitarian access remained at the same levels, there could be an additional 58,260 deaths in the six months from March through August. Around 9,000 deaths have been directly attributed to the war since then by Gaza’s health ministry.

The health ministry says that more than 38,000 people have died in Gaza since Oct. 7, when Hamas, which controls the territory, led an attack on Israel in which 1,200 people were killed. While the ministry’s tally is broadly accepted, there remain questions about its methodologies and record keeping, as well as contradictions between its statements and underlying data. Most civilian victims, the ministry says, are women and children. But the figures do not distinguish between civilians and combatants.

The subject of excess deaths is sensitive because it touches on the collateral cost of Israel’s war against Hamas. On top of the large death toll, the attacks have damaged hospitals and shelters. Aid officials say that Israel has also restricted access to the fuel that medical facilities need to operate. Israeli officials say they do all they can to spare civilians, but blame Hamas for placing its forces in urban centers and civilian facilities. They have also said that aid agencies’ logistical difficulties, rather than Israeli restrictions, are to blame for the limited amount of humanitarian aid that is getting to Gazans.

Before the war, Gaza’s health sector produced reliable data, which helps in modeling excess deaths, but lack of access to Gaza for researchers makes the task more difficult, according to Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

Gabby Sobelman contributed reporting.

Wanted: A Miracle Worker on Migration

Wanted: an “exceptional leader” with experience in policing, intelligence or the military, who is ready to tackle one of the thorniest issues in British politics.

Days after coming to power, Britain’s government is recruiting a chief for a new Border Security Command to “smash,” the job description says, the smuggling gangs that help asylum seekers arrive from France on small, often unseaworthy, boats.

The search for the border security commander is the first action taken by the new Labour government to address the unauthorized landings that have become an embarrassing symbol of Britain’s failure to control its borders.

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More Than 60 Are Missing in Nepal After Landslide Sweeps Buses Into River

More than 60 people are missing after a landslide swept two moving passenger buses into a river swollen by monsoon rains in central Nepal in the early hours of Friday, officials said.

According to a Nepal Police spokesman, Dan Bahadur Karki, the buses were pushed into the Trishuli River by a landslide that roared over a road connecting Chitwan and Kathmandu, Nepal’s capital city.

A vehicle operated by Angel Bus was heading to Kathmandu, and a Ganapati Deluxe-operated bus was en route to Rautahat from the capital, when the accident occurred at around 3:30 a.m., according to the local police. Mr. Karki said 24 passengers were on the bus traveling to Kathmandu, and 41 were on the other bus.

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‘We Want Our Real Lives Back’: For Gazans, Egypt Is Safe, but It’s Not Home

Reporting from Cairo

In Gaza, they owned olive trees, flower gardens, factories, stores and homes they had built and tended for decades. They had memories bound up in family photos, in knickknacks, in embroidered shawls. They had cars to drive, classes to attend, the beach minutes away.

Now, in the Egyptian capital of Cairo, where tens of thousands of Palestinians have fled, they find themselves in rented apartments overlooking concrete. They have few job prospects, dwindling savings and no schools for the children — a new world they know is safe, but hardly feels like a future.

Without legal status in Egypt or clarity about when Gaza might again offer a semblance of normal life, most are stuck: unable to build lives, try their luck in a third country or plan on returning home.

Physically, the Palestinians are in Egypt. Mentally, they are holding on to the memory of a Gaza that no longer exists.

“We have this feeling that this is just a temporary period in our lives,” said Nahla al-Bashti, 60, who arrived in Egypt with her family from Gaza in December. Desperate for income, she recently began selling pomegranate molasses and other Palestinian foods from her tiny rented kitchen, missing all the while the fruit trees in her old yard.

“We want our real lives back,” she said. “I feel suffocated.”

But just how temporary this period is remains an open question. For Gazans, Egypt is unstable ground — a country that proclaims support for the Palestinian cause and denounces the war in Gaza, but whose wariness of Hamas has led it, alongside Israel, to blockade the impoverished territory for 17 years.

Though Egypt has been a crucial conduit for humanitarian aid to Gaza during the war, officials adamantly oppose allowing in large numbers of Palestinian refugees, warning that they could threaten national security and that emptying Gaza of its people would torpedo the prospect of a future Palestinian state.

Yet as many as 100,000 Gazans have managed to cross, the Palestinian ambassador in Cairo has said, whether through connections, by paying unofficial brokers, or as one of the badly wounded or severely ill people the Egyptian government has sponsored for treatment.

When she and her family stepped over the border, Shereen Sabbah, 25, a translator from Gaza City, said she felt sick at leaving Gaza. They were about to be homeless, friendless and jobless.

“It’s like being eaten from the inside,” said Ms. Sabbah, whose family paid to escape Gaza using private donations.

The house Ms. Sabbah and her sisters grew up in was destroyed, along with the olive and citrus groves around it. So was her brother-in-law’s business, a car-repair garage, she said. Their savings were nearly gone. Their parents and other siblings were still dodging bombs in Gaza.

“You basically have no future, no past, nothing,” said Ms. Sabbah’s sister, Fatma Shaban, 31.

Everything in Egypt felt strange.

The Palestinians had spent so long without meat, fruit or vegetables, without electricity, without showers. The abundance of Egypt, the safety of it, came as a shock.

But they could not forget that their families in Gaza had none of it.

“We couldn’t comprehend the war we went through, where our only concern was finding food and surviving. And then we were in another world where people were living normal lives,” said Husam al-Batniji, 28, an architect who fled Gaza for Cairo along with his family. “And we asked, why can’t we live a normal life, too?”

The Palestinians’ emotional unmooring is mirrored by their legal limbo in Egypt.

Once the 45-day tourist visa most arrivals receive expires, Palestinians cannot obtain the residency papers to open bank accounts and businesses, apply for visas to other countries or enroll their children in Egyptian public schools.

Nor can they officially register with the United Nations agency that assists refugees in Egypt from Syria, Sudan and elsewhere. Egypt has not given consent for it to take on Palestinians, said Rula Amin, an agency spokeswoman.

The U.N. agency that supports Palestinians lacks a legal mandate to operate in Egypt. Since the current war began, no countries have accepted large numbers of Palestinians for permanent resettlement or refuge.

Arab countries fear Israel will try to turn the Gazans’ exile into a permanent expulsion, generating political and security complications and threatening future Palestinian statehood. For similar reasons, Western countries publicly say Gazans should be able to stay in Gaza and anti-immigrant sentiment at home could also make it difficult to take in large numbers.

In Egypt’s case, the government is nervous that Gazans displaced to Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, which borders Gaza and Israel, will become radicalized. The fear is that they could join existing Sinai militant groups that have vexed Egypt for years or launch attacks on Israel from Egyptian soil.

In Cairo, Palestinians say, they feel daunted by the hourslong commutes across the megacity and too big for the rented rooms they cannot stop comparing to their houses. They left those homes thinking they would soon be back. Now they own almost nothing except a little clothing and the phones they check, almost incessantly, to make sure their families back in Gaza are still alive.

Ms. al-Bashti kept scrutinizing photos of her old neighborhood on the news, frantic. Was the water tank still there? Then their house must be OK, she kept telling herself, until relatives sent her a photo of the hill of rubble it had become.

“When I buy something here, I say, ‘Oh, I’ll use it in my garden,’” she said, “and then I remember — we have no more garden.”

The losses swell from there.

Dozens of the al-Batnijis’ relatives have been killed in the war, according to family members. They left behind a jewelry factory and store and multigenerational homes that Mr. al-Batniji’s father had spent a quarter-century building.

In Egypt, his father has no capital to open a factory and no heart to start anew, Mr. al-Batniji said. So they scratch out a living however they can, his brother peddling used clothes, Mr. al-Batniji freelancing online for architecture firms.

Through Egyptian volunteers, Ms. Shaban got an offer from an Egyptian company. But after her first, bewildering 2.5-hour bus commute, she quit: It was too far, and her traumatized children needed her at home, she said.

Another stranger found her work translating videos for a professor’s research, while her sister, Ms. Sabbah, works remotely translating for a Canadian immigration agency. But a third sister, Ola, a photographer, cannot find work.

Ms. Shaban’s 12-year-old and 10-year-old are set to start online classes with a West Bank school. But with the family’s one laptop needed for the adults’ jobs, the children will be catching up on eight months of missed education from their parents’ phones.

Recognizing how anxious parents are about their children’s educations, Egyptian volunteers recently opened a learning center in Cairo for about 350 children who fled Gaza during the war. The center’s founder, Israa Ali, realized early on that they needed to design the classes with trauma in mind, and to keep therapists on hand.

One young girl broke down about her family — mostly dead or missing — while drawing, Ms. Ali said. Other children leap from their seats mid-class, seized by the need to make sure their siblings are safe.

“In one split second, they can get triggered by anything,” Ms. Ali said. “You will never understand that you’re in the same room as a child who got pulled out of the rubble and in that process, lost three of their siblings and their parents.”

Money is too tight, and Ms. Shaban and her husband too occupied with thoughts of Gaza, for them to give the kids the outings they beg for. The one time she took them to the movies, she said, they shot under their seats as soon as the trailers started, blasting them with sound. For a moment, her own breath froze.

The Palestinians in Egypt debate all the time whether to stay or go back. If they do, will there be schools? Or water, sewage, electricity?

Fatma Shaban and Ola Sabbah wanted to seek stability in another country, perhaps in the Gulf, though they have no way of applying for visas. Someday, they still hope to return.

“The problem is not with Gaza — I love Gaza. The problem is with the future of my children,” Ms. Shaban said. “How long will it take to rebuild Gaza? Years, decades, months? You don’t know.”

But for Shereen Sabbah, the answer was clear.

“This place, it’s safe, but it’s not home to me,” she said. “Because home is Gaza to me.”

Emad Mekay contributed reporting.

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What NATO’s Warning to China About Russia Means

China’s tight bond with Russia is facing renewed condemnation from Washington and its allies after NATO issued its strongest accusation yet that Chinese technology is sustaining Moscow’s war in Ukraine.

Leaders from the NATO alliance, meeting in Washington, declared that Beijing “cannot enable the largest war in Europe in recent history” without facing repercussions.

Despite a widening web of Western bans and restrictions, Chinese semiconductors, machine tools and other parts have become vital to Russia’s arms industries, helping Moscow to keep up its grinding war, say American and European officials, intelligence agencies and security experts.

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