INDEPENDENT 2025-05-01 15:13:09


Israel declares national emergency as ‘largest wildfire ever’ threatens Jerusalem

Wildfires raging near Jerusalem have prompted evacuations and closures as prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared the situation a national emergency, asking for international aid.

Videos and pictures on social media showed the fires burning along the main Route 1 Jerusalem to Tel Aviv highway, with thick smoke billowing over the surrounding hilltops.

Many people were seen abandoning their cars and running away from the flames, and at least a dozen have been hospitalised.

“This is perhaps the largest fire ever in the country,” Jerusalem’s district fire department commander Shmulik Friedman told reporters on Wednesday afternoon.

He warned that winds of 60 miles an hour were making the situation challenging and could dramatically increasing the risk of the fires “in the near future”.

“It will continue for a very long time. We are far from having control.”

Mr Netanyahu warned that the wildfires could reach Jerusalem.

“The western wind can push the fire easily toward the outskirts of (Jerusalem) – and even into the city itself,” he said in a video sent by his office.

How Man Utd and Spurs can thrive again thanks to Europa League lesson

When Bodo/Glimt prepare for a game like Tottenham Hotspur, one policy is to try and not look at the names. The tiny Norwegian club has plenty of experience there, having faced Lazio, Arsenal, Manchester United and Ange Postecoglou’s Celtic during their recent rise.

The aim is to just see players as units, and their various strengths and weaknesses. It is a very rational way to look at something that could otherwise involve a lot of emotion, particularly for an Arctic Circle town that has a population of just 55,000 – almost 8,000 less than the 62,850 capacity of Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

“We only think it’s funny to show we can be as good as any name in the world,” says defender Odin Bjortuft.

The general perception of these four Europa League semi-finalists, and how they view football, is going to hugely frame the outlook of these ties.

On either side of both semi-finals – Bodo/Glimt v Tottenham Hotspur and Athletic Club v Manchester United – there are two fan-owned clubs who organically built on what they’ve got.

Bodo are authentically one of the great stories of modern football. Their run to become the first Norwegian club to reach a semi-final is not just something that shouldn’t be possible. It is all the more impressive since it has been achieved after years of sustained progress. This is no one-off. They are a model of diligently building on what you have, and being “smarter” about it.

“If you go back 10 years, the club was nearly bankrupt,” says director of football Havard Sakariassen. “Nobody has given us money outside of prize money or us doing well. There is no owner here. Nothing like that.”

Athletic have meanwhile enjoyed a rebirth, as their famous recruitment policy feels like it now offers even greater value in the modern game. By only selecting players who are connected to the Basque Country, they have benefited from the area’s burgeoning talent production. Club legend Ernesto Valverde is meanwhile a coach who fits, and last year’s Spanish Cup win is seen as having given the club a badly needed new confidence, as they lifted their first trophy in 40 years. They’re now going for a second in two as well as a first European trophy, all in their own stadium. There’s considerable romance to all this.

On the other side, there are two billionaire-owned clubs that have burnt through billions of Premier League and Champions League money in the last few years alone. And yet here are United, boosted by the return of Amad Diallo and Matthijs de Ligt, and Spurs, probably without Son Heung Min are, desperate for a Europa League to save their seasons – and maybe more.

While there are obviously pure football and emotional reasons for both to want to win this trophy, there’s also an inescapable financial reality. They both need the victory, and Champions League qualification, to satisfy profit and sustainability rules (PSR) and future growth. It isn’t quite what the great glory of European football is supposed to be about.

These two semi-finals have nevertheless become about admirable diligence against extreme waste; immense over-performance against jaw-dropping under-performance.

It’s hard to know what should be more unlikely: Bodo getting this far, or both United and Spurs being so low in the Premier League. The English two are somehow disproving Sakariassen’s true point that “it’s easier if you have money, that’s for sure”.

While none of this is to argue that it would be better for two Premier League clubs to go out, many in European football are only too keen to talk about potential moral lessons.

It was following last season’s Europa League final, after all, that Gian Piero Gasperini described his Atalanta’s win as a victory for “meritocracy”.

“There is still scope for ideas and football doesn’t have to come down to cool, hard money,” he said.

While so much of the modern game seems to be going in the opposite direction, especially with the expanded Champions League, there are figures in Uefa who were conscious of this. These semi-finals show why seemingly innocuous regulations are so important.

Had the original idea for the expanded Champions League been in place, where two positions would have absurdly been awarded based on past performance, clubs like United and Spurs could well have had a safety net. Senior voices like Theo Theodoridis worried this might be going too far. Fan pressure was crucial.

Now, both Spurs and United might be forced into more calculated thought about what next, just like their semi-final opposition.

It is why Bodo can be “an inspiration”, as Sakariassen puts it, for even clubs much bigger than those in Norway. They might also show the way football is going. Much like Liverpool on a different scale in this season’s Premier League, Bodo have made a virtue of “performance culture”. It really is that simple in terms of explanation, if obviously difficult to execute. They began to think about how they could maximise every area of the club.

“They have used their limitations as advantages,” says Jens Haugland, chief executive of the Norwegian league. “We need to be driven by a very strong performance culture, because we can never compete in terms of money. Bodo is a clear example. They have done it for many years and are also able to repeat the performance. You can never buy a performance culture from money, you can never buy an attitude from money, you can never buy a collective from money. You need to work in a very detailed and systematic way for many years.”

Athletic, famously, have an identity you can’t buy with money, either. It is similarly instructive that, when Michel Platini first tried to get Financial Fair Play through 18 years ago, he turned to a prominent Athletic fan. The then Uefa president received crucial legal support from European Union competition commissioner Joaquin Almunia. This wasn’t out of any club bias, but really about what football culture should encourage.

It is impossible not to wonder what some of the Premier League executives might make of being forced into Athletic’s recruitment policy, given that there are now voices at United who want PSR loosened. Bodo pursue a strategy that is similar to Athletic almost by definition, in having mostly Norwegian players, because that’s just the market they’re in. “Their main pitch to me was they could help make me better.” Bjortuft says. “Bodo/Glimt have been really good at picking players who can give everything for the team.”

Praise isn’t universal, of course. There has been some criticism for how Bodo have benefited from that same Uefa prize money mechanism, with Sakariassen admitting “a lot of Norwegian clubs probably see it as a big obstacle”.

Some rivals around the Basque region meanwhile “despise” Athletic for “poaching” their players. Euro 2024 star Nico Williams was taken from nearby rivals Osasuna at 11. On the other side, both Arsenal and Chelsea are looking at him for the summer. Wealthy English clubs want Bodo manager Kjetil Knutsen.

Money does tend to win out. The likelihood is that one of United or Spurs will win to reach the final. If they do, however, there are still considerable lessons to take from their opposition. Neither Bilbao nor Bodo see it that way. They have full belief. It’s the conviction that comes from commitment to a unique identity. They are convinced they can give the best lesson possible.

Highly decorated Celtic sword adorned with swastikas unearthed in France

Archaeologists have unearthed a 2,300-year-old Celtic sword in France decorated with glass paste and swastika engravings, a discovery shedding more light on weapons manufactured in ancient Europe.

The sword was found at a strange second Iron Age burial site, lacking any skeletons due to the acidity of the soil.

However, researchers uncovered several metal artefacts at the site, including copper alloy bracelets, decorated fibulae made of iron, as well as two swords still in their sheath.

Overall, 18 such fibulae were identified at the site, made mainly of copper alloy or iron, with the “most exceptional” of them embellished with a cabochon gemstone and decorated with a silver leaf motif, they say.

The ornament is attributable to the end of the 4th century or the beginning of the 3rd century BC, according to the French National Institute of Preventive Archaeological Research (INRAP).

After stabilising the artefacts, scientists found that one of the swords was “without a doubt, the most spectacular object of the necropolis”.

Its handle and the front plate of its sheath were made of copper alloy, and the sheath also allowed a waist port, researchers say.

The sword’s sheath was also adorned with ocelle decorations and several cabochon embellishments, they say.

“At least two of them have swastika decorations and probably glass paste,” the INRAP reported.

The distinct sword had a short, slender blade with an antenna handle made of iron and associated with spheres made of copper or copper alloys.

X-ray scans revealed that there were inlays on the top of the blade, including a round and a crescent moon separated by a line.

Based on the nature of these decorations, scientists suspect the sword was conceived likely at the very beginning of the 4th century BC.

The other sword, distinctly lacking any decoration, was found accompanied by suspension rings, which would have allowed it to be carried at the waist.

It still had some fabric fragments caught in the metallic oxidation at the back of its sheath.

The fabric may have come from the deceased’s clothing, a shroud, or a case, researchers say.

This sword was also likely manufactured during the 4th century BC, scientists say.

“The size and typology of the sword suggest a manufacture during the 4th century BC,” INRAP noted.

Archaeologists also uncovered a small funerary vase covered with punched patterns alternating with painted headbands at the burial site.

“This necropolis can be compared to well-known sites in Champagne, in the Paris Basin, or in Burgundy,” researchers said.

King Charles opens up about ‘frightening’ cancer experience

The King has issued a deeply personal and poignant message about living with cancer, saying his experience of the disease had brought into “sharp focus the very best of humanity”.

Charles said his diagnosis is “daunting and at times frightening” as he heaped praise on cancer charities, telling them: “You have my whole family’s deepest admiration and gratitude.”

The 76-year-old monarch’s remarks came in a personal, written message, released to coincide with a Buckingham Palace reception he hosted to celebrate organisations helping people with the disease.

Read the King’s message in full here

The King described himself as one of the “statistics” among the 390,000 who “sadly” receive a cancer diagnosis across the UK each year – but said he could vouch that it “can also be an experience that brings into sharp focus the very best of humanity”.

Charles, who is still undergoing treatment more than a year on from his diagnosis, revealed his cancer journey had given him “an even deeper appreciation of the extraordinary work” of the charities.

He also said it had reinforced how “the darkest moments of illness can be illuminated by the greatest compassion”.

And he hailed the late Dame Deborah James as an inspiration, quoting her final message and encouraging everyone to follow her example: “Find a life worth enjoying; take risks; love deeply; have no regrets; and always, always have rebellious hope.”

Dame Deborah died in June 2022 at the age of 40, five years after she was diagnosed with bowel cancer, and her Bowelbabe fund has raised more than £16 million since it was launched.

The King’s message was printed in a booklet given out at the Palace’s Wednesday evening reception to guests, including Dame Deborah’s parents Heather and Alistair.

A royal source said there was no update on the King’s condition or treatment, but that it continued in a “very positive direction”, reflected in his “very full” national and international diary programme.

They described the words and subject of the message as “deeply personal” for the King.

The King wrote: “My wife and I are delighted to host you here this evening to celebrate and above all thank those who so selflessly give care, comfort and reassurance to the 390,000 people who, sadly, receive a new cancer diagnosis across the UK each year.

“That is over 1,000 new cases every single day.”

“Each diagnosis, each new case, will be a daunting and at times frightening experience for those individuals and their loved ones.

“But as one among those statistics myself, I can vouch for the fact that it can also be an experience that brings into sharp focus the very best of humanity.

“It has certainly given me an even deeper appreciation of the extraordinary work undertaken by the remarkable organisations and individuals gathered here this evening, many of whom I have known, visited and supported over the years.

“And it has reinforced what I have long observed during these visits – that the darkest moments of illness can be illuminated by the greatest compassion.”

The monarch and the Queen invited representatives from their cancer charity patronages, Macmillan Cancer Support, Breast Cancer Now, Maggie’s and Children’s Hospice South West, to the royal residence.

The King wrote how he and Camilla had seen “first-hand” as patrons how the organisations fund vital research and offer sanctuaries to patients and their families.

He said he was struck by the “profound impact of human connection” whether “careful explanation from a specialist nurse, the hand held by a hospice volunteer, or the shared experience in a support group”.

“These moments of kinship create what I might call a ‘community of care’, one that sustains patients through the most difficult of times,” Charles said.

His cancer diagnosis, undisclosed in its type, early in 2024, following a procedure on an enlarged prostate, marked the start of what his eldest son the Prince of Wales described as the most “brutal” year with the Princess of Wales also being diagnosed with cancer.

Kate is now in remission after finishing her chemotherapy treatment last summer.

She and William celebrated their 14th wedding anniversary on the Isle of Mull on Tuesday, spending the day recognising the secluded Scottish island’s rural community.

The King gave his thanks on behalf of the royal family to researchers working on breakthroughs, those offering specialist treatment, and also to campaigners.

“So to all the researchers pursuing pioneering breakthroughs; to the healthcare professionals providing specialist treatment; to the volunteers offering comfort, or campaigning to raise awareness; and to the fundraisers enabling all this vital work – you have my whole family’s deepest admiration and gratitude,” he said.

In March this year, the King “required a short period of observation in hospital” after experiencing side effects from his treatment.

Charles, who is known for being a workaholic, is said to have thrived on carrying out public and state duties in recent months, seeing them as being of great benefit to his overall wellbeing.

Camilla said, to mark their 20th wedding anniversary at the start of April, that the King was “driven” by helping others and indicated his cancer journey was one of “recovery”.

At the reception, Charles and Camilla were being joined by cancer charity champions including radio presenter Adele Roberts, former footballer Ashley Cain and actor Richard E Grant.

Displays at the reception showcased groups such as Move Dance Feel, which unites women affected by cancer through dance, Rainbow Boxes, which offers practical items as people start cancer treatment, and Wigs for Heroes, which supports people undergoing cancer treatment.

Gemma Peters, chief executive at Macmillan Cancer Support, said: “We are so grateful to his majesty for his continued support, both as our patron and for being so open about his own cancer experience, which has inspired so many others to reach out for support from organisations like Macmillan.

“Every day we see the impact that cancer is having on people’s lives and that experience is even worse for some people because of who they are or where they live, which is entirely unacceptable. We are on a mission to transform cancer care, but we cannot do it on our own.

“It’s incredible to see so many different community groups and organisations who are doing brilliant work for people living with cancer.”

How online schools can help children form friendships as they learn

When thinking about the best education for your child, it’s naturally not just academic success that comes to mind. A good quality school experience is made up of many parts and one key element is the socialising opportunities that school can provide. Socialisation is crucial for building social skills, growing emotional intelligence and helping children form their own individual identity, as well as giving them an additional incentive to attend a place where they have fun and feel part of a community.

While it might be assumed that the social options are reduced when children attend online school, this is not the case. In fact, there are a number of advantages in terms of the structures, support and diverse social opportunities offered to children who join online schools.

Online schools give students the opportunity to form connections with a much more diverse community of students. The online model allows schools to welcome young people from around the world and this gives pupils a chance to make friends with students from differing backgrounds and cultures. Furthermore, this means they can meet more like-minded individuals and form stronger bonds and more meaningful friendships. This access to such a big and vibrant community also ensures that students can really find ‘their people’ and avoids situations where students are stuck in small circles or forced to engage with classmates that don’t share the same interests or passions.

This is something that Grace, who is now in year 13, has experienced since moving to online school. At her previous school, she was struggling with socialisation and felt that she didn’t really have a self-identity. At an online school, she has found she can be more herself. “A lot of people think that online school is about being alone, but I’ve found that without the physical element, I can express myself better,” Grace explains.  Subsequently, the majority of her closest friends are from her online school and many she has met offline too. “I feel like I’ve met my people,” she says.

Isabella, who is in year 10, has also found that her experience of socialising at an online school has suited her much more than previous bricks and mortar schools. With her father’s job meaning the family moves country every three years, she has always previously struggled forming new friendships at the schools she joins. “I’m always the ‘new’ student, and it’s tough,” she says. After experiences with bullying, she found that online school is an environment she can thrive in. “You don’t have to turn on your camera or use your microphones if you’re not feeling comfortable. I’m not really a ‘social’ person, but I have made some friends here because we have these breakout rooms where we can talk to each other,” she adds.

While young people might not be meeting their fellow students physically every day, online schools put in place extensive measures to ensure that socialising is available for those who want to. This can be seen clearly at King’s InterHigh, the UK’s leading global online school which welcomes children aged 7 to 19 from across the world. Here, students join a warm and welcoming community with a huge range of opportunities for socialising. There’s dozens of clubs and societies for students across all year groups, representing a vast range of interests from chess to technology, sculpture to debate. Throughout the yearly student calendar, there are a number of events, showcases, and competitions of all kinds that provide a chance to socialise in different settings. Some happen internally, like the King’s InterHigh Arts Festival, while others allow students to interact with peers from outside their school when attending events like the International Robotics Competition.

Assemblies bring students together on a weekly basis and give them the chance to celebrate each other’s achievements, hear from their Student Council representatives, and find out what’s coming up at school. Each student is also assigned to one of the school’s eight houses and these smaller, tight-knit communities bring students a sense of belonging and camaraderie. Additionally, inter-house competitions are a fun and friendly way for students to engage and bond.

Although much socialising can come as a result of activities organised by the school, students at King’s InterHigh who are aged over 13 can continue building these relationships in a more informal setting thanks to the in-house, monitored, social media platform. Restricted solely to school students, the platform is safe, secure, and monitored to ensure a positive socialising environment for all those who choose to use it.

Online schools don’t just offer opportunities to socialise online but also offer ample opportunities to cement these connections in offline settings. At King’s InterHigh, there are global meet-ups throughout the year which bring together families allowing both children and parents and guardians to connect in real life. Regular educational school trips, from Geography excursions to science practical exams at other Inspired schools (the group of premium schools of which King’s InterHigh is part of) also allow children to socialise and have fun together in different settings.

Meanwhile, the annual summer camps, themed around a variety of interests and passions, including adventure sports, fashion, football, and tennis, are open to students across all Inspired schools and are held at spectacular Inspired campuses worldwide. Furthermore, the Inspired Global Exchange Programme offers a range of school exchange opportunities, lasting from one week to a full academic year.

Choosing where to educate your children is a big decision for any parent or guardian that involves many factors. However, when it comes to the social benefits, for the right child, online schools offer something truly transformative. To find out more about King’s InterHigh and whether it might be the right learning choice for your family, visit King’s InterHigh

Groomed: A National Scandal is harrowing and fraught with political complexity

“Starmer was complicit in the RAPE OF BRITAIN,” Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, tweeted on 3 January this year. He was accusing the prime minister of failing, as director of public prosecutions, to tackle issues with grooming and child exploitation that go back several decades. A flurry of tweets reignited public interest in the case, something that has been covered for 30 years by the journalist and documentarian Anna Hall, who revisits her work this week for the Channel 4 documentary Groomed: A National Scandal.

The grooming scandal in Britain – which is often perceived as activities in Rotherham between the 1980s and 2013, but was, as this film shows, more widespread – is a complex issue. It crosses racial lines – the perpetrators were largely British-Pakistani, the victims often white – and involved myriad failures that allowed the abuse to go unchecked. Councils, social workers, the police, the entire criminal justice system, all have been scrutinised, and criticised, in the wake of events. It is, in short, a tragedy that is hard to do justice to in little over an hour. “This is the story of five women,” Hall announces at the outset, privileging, instead, the voices of victims like Chantelle and Jade, who appear on camera to deliver gruelling testimony about the rape and exploitation they suffered. This victim-centric account is clearly the way to go with a subject so frequently inflamed for political gain.

Yet as much as Hall wants to platform these women – who are startling, both in their frankness and their transparent vulnerability – the film cannot contextualise their stories without diving into the labyrinthine tale of evil being perpetrated and then (largely) gotten away with. “They’re not gonna stop,” one of the victims tells Hall. “It’s actually organised crime.” The tendrils of what happened have affected many of the interviewees – from Maggie Oliver, a police officer turned whistleblower, to Marlon West, whose daughter was groomed and abused in Manchester – who appear in the film. It necessarily dilutes the rawness of the five women who courageously take to the camera (some are portrayed, facially, by actors; others have waived their anonymity entirely), but provides a pathway through this tricky tale.

And it is tricky. “This is a film I hoped I’d never have to make,” Hall’s low-key narration informs us. It is a stark contrast to the gleeful, propagandising tone employed by Musk, and other far-right groups, as the story has resurfaced in recent months. This much has always been the case: the film shows the campaigns for justice being hijacked, in the 2010s, by groups like the BNP and EDL. “I wanted to make another film that tackles the issue of race head on,” Hall claims. And so even though the film disclaims that the majority of child abuse happens in the home and the majority of perpetrators are white, Groomed doesn’t shy away from the racial dynamic of this case. In fact, it could go further. It teases an understanding about cultural concerns within the British-Pakistani community (the film occasionally elides the British half of this, a possible misstep given how much of the abuse was perpetrated by second-generation immigrants), yet the foregrounding of victims means questions about the offenders get sidelined.

It is a delicacy that is, perhaps, born out of the incendiary nature of this issue. “Rotherham exploded,” a Yorkshire local confides, as the story becomes a global cause celebre. “My little town became world news.” Hall feels that the victims have become a “political football”, and yet the commissioning of this documentary also feels calculated. It is clear that grooming gangs are still in operation, but the salience of this issue has been raised by groups propagating aggressive nativism. Is this a chance for the women – the victims – to finally be heard with their own voices? Or is this a root-and-branch examination of political and judicial failings?

In the end, it’s a bit of both. The first-person testimony is harrowing but urgent. A broadcaster with more confidence in their audience being able to contextualise that information might’ve done something more radical, and allowed these women to hold the screen from start to finish. But as Groomed: A National Scandal suggests in its title, this issue has transcended the relative simplicity of that dynamic. Fraught with political complexity, this film cannot quite decide whether it wants to provoke or placate.

Why are house prices still so ruinous?

There was some blessed relief for people trying to buy their first home in April as the runaway housing market train finally hit the buffers.

Nationwide’s latest House Price Index (HPI) recorded a small, seasonally adjusted, 0.6 per cent decline when compared to March. In terms of real money – and do note that this figure is not seasonally adjusted – the average British home sold eased down to £270,752 from £271,316.

That is still higher than this time last year. But the pace of growth on an annual basis, at 3.4 per cent when compared to April 2024, was slower than in the 12 months to March (3.9 per cent).

It has been quite the rollercoaster for those in the game, by which I mean people buying and/or selling and not the sharp-suited estate agents whom they engage.

My editor kindly sent me a picture featuring some headlines from the past few months. They spoke breathlessly of records broken and growth at the fastest pace in two years, which is all very exciting for those sitting on a treasure chest and thinking of cashing in.

So why has it come to a juddering halt? Stamp duty, mainly. There was a rush to get deals done in March ahead of the hike imposed by Rachel Reeves. Cash-strapped chancellors love stamp duty because just about the only way to avoid it is to get in quick before the hammer falls. Given the state of public finances, Reeves may increase it again in September.

April was bound to be slow with the extra tax now due and Robert Gardner, chief economist for Nationwide, thinks that the market will stay soft before picking up again later in the summer.

Matt Thompson, head of sales at estate agent Chestertons, is also eyeing that season with hungry eyes, telling me: “We expect market activity and particularly buyer demand to pick up in early May which will lead to a busier than usual summer market. ”

The economic backdrop may not be pretty. But, as Gardner points out, unemployment remains low, even with job vacancies in long-term decline, while earnings have been consistently beating inflation.

Best of all, for buyers, is that mortgage rates are down. The interest rate swaps market, which governs the price of fixed rate deals, is anticipating that Bank of England base rates will fall faster and remain lower for longer than was the feeling before Donald Trump decided to lob a hand grenade into the middle of the global trading system.

With lenders finding it cheaper to secure financing for the mortgages they offer, they’ve been passing the savings on. It is now possible to find deals below four per cent, although you need a low loan to value – typically 60 per cent – to qualify. These aren’t deals for first-time buyers unless you’re lucky enough to have a branch of the Bank of Mum & Dad LLC willing to front a truly stupendous deposit.

When set against that, even the Trump-inspired chaos chilling an already less-than-healthy UK economy mightn’t spoil the party that Chestertons, Nationwide and most other forecasters are expecting to get started later in the year.

At this point, you’ve probably guessed that there is a “but” coming. And you would be right. Taylor Wimpey CEO Jennie Daly noted what she called “the ongoing affordability challenges for some of our customers, particularly in the south of England” in the group’s latest trading update.

You can almost hear the collective “no kidding!” from those currently perusing estate agents’ boards. Housing costs in Britain are, to put it simply, horrible. And Daly is quite right: a lot of people are struggling with their mortgages, especially those who recently came off the deals available when base rates were near zero.

Raising a deposit presents a real struggle for young people without wealthy parents. I’ve also been watching banks reporting rising levels of bad debt. Yes, multiple things are feeding into this; non-performing loans to businesses facing tough trading conditions in particular. But what this may serve to do is to cool their ardour when it comes to offering hot mortgage rates by reducing their appetite for risk and causing them to take steps to protect their margins.

The housing market is still crazy. Home ownership is a dream for a large number of people and they will do what it takes to make it come true, going without to fund their repayments when things get tight.

But there are reasons for thinking the market might tread water for longer than people expect. While I’ve been wrong before, and I’m out of step with most of the forecasters who think that rollercoaster is poised to race up the hill at pace, I think this is quite possible.

House prices are too high for people to afford. They need to come down.