Whether “football’s coming home” is as unpredictable as ever. But in England, watching this weekend as its men’s national soccer team comes within touching distance of glory, the dreaming and dreading seem less anguished this time around.

Three years ago, in the deadly grip of the coronavirus pandemic and the acrid wake of Brexit, England suffered a heartbreaking loss to Italy, on penalty kicks, in the final of the European championships in London.

England’s run through that Covid-delayed tournament had lifted a country that badly needed it. The team’s unofficial anthem, “Three Lions,” swelled in pubs and living rooms across the country, offering the hope, however far-fetched, that after five decades of tournament disappointments and 14 months of lockdowns, “football’s coming home,” as the lyrics of the song go.

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Hundreds of Russians packed an auditorium in central London on a recent warm evening to listen as Boris Akunin, the author of a wildly popular detective series, told them that when it came to the Ukraine war, “I believe that the actions of the Russian Army are criminal.”

Mr. Akunin’s series, set in late czarist times, made him rich and famous, but outspoken statements like that one have made him more infamous of late back home in Russia. The Kremlin recently labeled the author — who went into self-imposed exile in London a decade ago — a “terrorist” and effectively banned his works.

When President Vladimir V. Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Mr. Akunin wrote on Facebook, “Russia is ruled by a psychologically deranged dictator and worst of all, it obediently follows his paranoia.” At that time, he began contemplating how cultural figures fleeing abroad might still reach their domestic audience and perhaps help to spur change at home. Being cut off from his own readers lent the project special urgency.

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