INDEPENDENT 2025-07-19 15:08:58


Danger to life weather warning as thunderstorms set to hit England

Parts of southern England are set to be battered by torrential rain on Saturday which could cause “significant” flooding and a danger to life, the Met Office said.

An amber warning for thunderstorms has been issued for between 4am and 11am spanning major towns and cities including London, Brighton, Portsmouth, Chelmsford, St Albans and Cambridge.

Forecasters have warned of sudden flooding in roads and homes with some more remote communities at risk of being cut off, while delays to train and bus services are also likely.

Power cuts could also occur and buildings are at risk of damage from floodwater, lightning strikes, hail and strong winds.

It is one of several weather warnings for thunderstorms issued across the country.

On Friday, two yellow warnings are in place with one covering much of Yorkshire and the north east of England from 11am to 8pm on Friday. The second will come into place at 9pm until 11:49pm in London and the south east.

On Saturday, two yellow warnings will be in place alongside the more severe amber alert. Most of England will be covered by a yellow warning from midnight to 9pm. Eastern Scotland is also facing a yellow warning from 4pm until midday on Sunday.

A further warning for the south west of England will also come into place at midday on Sunday and remain until 3am on Monday.

The downpours will be fuelled by warm and humid airmass moving across the country over the coming days, the Met Office said.

Met Office Chief Meteorologist Jason Kelly, said: “Within the warm and humid airmass we will potentially see temperatures reaching 30°C or more for parts of eastern England by Friday, with very warm and muggy conditions continuing into the weekend in parts of central and southern England.”

Looking ahead to next week, the unsettled pattern is expected to continue, with showers and thunderstorms at times, although some drier, brighter interludes are also likely. Temperatures will be near normal or warm for the time of year, depending on sunshine.

By midweek, conditions may begin to settle from the west, though eastern areas could still see showers. Temperatures are expected to be near or slightly above normal, with warmth in sunnier areas.

It comes as Southern Water has become the latest company to bring in a hosepipe ban, to protect rare chalk stream habitat, as England battles exceptionally dry weather.

The company said restrictions on hosepipes for activities such as watering gardens, filling paddling pools or washing cars would come in for households in Hampshire and the Isle of Wight from Monday.

It is the latest announcement by water companies bringing in hosepipe bans in response to the driest start to the year since 1976 for England.

Rainfall across England was 20 per cent less than the long-term average for June, which was also the hottest on record for the country, with two heatwaves driving unusually high water demand, the Environment Agency has said.

Drought was declared in the East and West Midlands on Tuesday, with the region joining swathes of northern England in being impacted by the lack of rainfall.

Ukraine latest: Russian drone attack kills one in Odesa

A mass drone attack on the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Odesa has killed one person overnight, officials said.

Mayor Hennady Trukhanov said at least 20 drones converged on the city early on Saturday, setting ablaze at least one multi-storey apartment building and killing one resident.

Pictures posted online showed a fire engulfing floors near the top of one building as president Volodymyr Zelensky said six people were injured – including a child – in the attack.

Zelensky added over 300 drones and 30 missiles had been launched at Ukraine overnight overall, with several regions affected.

Moscow’s mayor also said 13 drones had been downed or destroyed by Russian air defences overnight near the city. In a separate post, Russia’s Defence Ministry said it had downed 87 Ukrainian drones in different areas across Russia in a period of nearly five hours.

Meanwhile, Kyiv’s European allies have welcomed the EU’s 18th sanctions package targeting Moscow’s oil and gas industry.

French president Emmanuel Macron said the package was “unprecedented”.

When asked about the sanctions, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia had built a certain immunity to Western sanctions and adapted to them.

14 minutes ago

Zelensky: Over 300 Russian drones launched overnight

Volodymyr Zelensky has claimed Russia launched over 300 drones and 30 missiles at Ukraine overnight.

The Ukrainian president said target elimination remains ongoing as drones remain in the air.

Rescue operations are underway in areas affected which include the Donetsk, Kirovohrad, Dnipro, Sumy, Kherson, Volyn, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Odesa, and Zhytomyr regions.

“In Sumy, critical infrastructure was damaged, leaving several thousand families without electricity. Shostka was hit with combined strikes,” he wrote on X.

“In Odesa, an apartment building was damaged — six people were injured, including a child. Sadly, one person was killed.”

Athena Stavrou19 July 2025 07:54
49 minutes ago

How the EU aims to put the squeeze on the Russian economy?

The European Union’s 18th sanctions package against Russia over its war in Ukraine targets Moscow’s energy and financial sectors to limit its ability to fund war in Ukraine.

Key measures include a lower oil price cap, Nord Stream transaction ban, more shadow fleet sanctions, and a full ban on Russian bank deals.

“We are striking at the heart of Russia’s war machine,” EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said in a post on X.

The measures are intended to ramp up pressure on Russia amid flagging peace negotiations, as well as targeting companies and countries that allow Moscow to evade existing sanctions.

More here.

How the EU aims to put the squeeze on the Russian economy with new sanctions

Key measures include a lower oil price cap, Nord Stream transaction ban and a full ban on Russian bank deals
Alisha Rahaman Sarkar19 July 2025 07:18
1 hour ago

In pics: People take shelter inside a metro station during a Russian drone strike

Alisha Rahaman Sarkar19 July 2025 07:00
1 hour ago

UK sanctions Russian spies who ‘targeted Britain’

Britain has hit more than a dozen Russian spies with a wave of sanctions, targeting those it accused of running a “sustained campaign” of malicious activity against the UK.

The Foreign Office named 18 officers from Russian spy agency the GRU, as well as hitting three of its units with measures aimed at cracking down on Vladimir Putin’s increasing aggression abroad.

It said the military intelligence officers targeted were “responsible for spreading chaos and disorder on Putin’s orders”, and included those who had targeted the family of former Russian spy Sergei Skripal.

Archie Mitchell reports.

UK sanctions Russian spies who ‘targeted Britain in sustained campaign’

The spies are also blamed for a prolonged campaign of cyberattacks across Europe
Alisha Rahaman Sarkar19 July 2025 06:30
2 hours ago

Germany’s Merz casts doubt on Ukraine’s EU entry by 2034

German chancellor Friedrich Merz yesterday cast doubt on the possibility of Ukraine joining the European Union by 2034, saying accession was unlikely to come at a point affecting the bloc’s medium-term finance plans, which run to 2034.

“For us, the absolute top priority is, first and foremost, to do everything possible to end this war,” Merz said after a meeting with Romanian president Nicușor Dan in Berlin.

“Then we’ll talk about the reconstruction of Ukraine… but that’s going to take a number of years … It will probably not even affect the EU’s current medium-term financial outlook,” the chancellor said.

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said in Kyiv in February that Ukraine could join the EU before 2030 if the country continues reforms at the current speed and quality.

EU leaders have also said accession to the EU would be the most important security guarantee for the future of Ukraine.

Alisha Rahaman Sarkar19 July 2025 05:59
2 hours ago

In pic: Ukrainian air defences deployed against Russian drones

Alisha Rahaman Sarkar19 July 2025 05:36
2 hours ago

Condoleezza Rice says Trump’s new stance on Putin could be a ‘turning point’

Condoleezza Rice, the former US secretary of state, said she believed last week was a “turning point” in the US and European stance towards Ukraine and Russia, which could potentially end the war.

Ms Rice said US president Donald Trump “is angry with Putin because he has, in effect, made the president look bad”.

Speaking at the annual Aspen Security Forum, Ms Rice added: “I think the best news that we could possibly give to the Ukrainian people is that the United States and Europe have finally aligned around the idea that Vladimir Putin will not be stopped with words. He will only be stopped if he believes that he can go no further, he can win no further.”

Alisha Rahaman Sarkar19 July 2025 05:31
2 hours ago

UK to join EU’s price cap on Russian crude oil

The UK has announced it would join the price cap move on Russian crude, saying it would deal a blow to Moscow’s oil revenues used to finance the ongoing conflict with Ukraine.

“The UK and its EU allies are turning the screw on the Kremlin’s war chest by stemming the most valuable funding stream of its illegal war in Ukraine even further,” British finance minister Rachel Reeves said at a G20 meeting in South Africa.

The EU yesterday agreed an 18th package of sanctions against Russia over its war in Ukraine, including measures aimed at dealing further blows to the Russian oil and energy industry.

The EU will set a moving price cap on Russian crude at 15 per cent below its average market price, EU diplomats said, aiming to improve on a largely ineffective $60 cap that the Group of Seven major economies have tried to impose since December 2022.

“The EU just approved one of its strongest sanctions packages against Russia to date,” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on X.

“We will keep raising the costs, so stopping the aggression becomes the only path forward for Moscow.”

Alisha Rahaman Sarkar19 July 2025 05:26
3 hours ago

Russia ‘intercepts Ukrainian drones’ headed for Moscow

Russian air defences intercepted drones heading for Moscow in a series of attacks, mayor Sergei Sobyanin said.

Mr Sobyanin said 13 drones had been downed or destroyed after midnight, but made no mention of casualties or damages. He said specialists were examining fragments where they had landed.

A tally of his posts showed 10 more drones were intercepted or destroyed in the previous 11 hours.

Russia’s defence ministry on Telegram said its air defence units had downed 87 Ukrainian drones in different areas across central, western and southern Russia in a period of nearly five hours. Forty-eight of the drones were downed in Bryansk region, on the Ukrainian border.

The acting governor of Rostov region, on Ukraine’s eastern border, said Ukrainian drones had triggered fires or knocked down power lines in a number of districts.

Alisha Rahaman Sarkar19 July 2025 04:51
3 hours ago

In pic: Russian drone strikes apartment in Odesa

Alisha Rahaman Sarkar19 July 2025 04:24

Russian spies who ‘targeted Britain in sustained campaign’ sanctioned

Britain has hit more than a dozen Russian spies with a wave of sanctions, targeting those it accused of running a “sustained campaign” of malicious activity against the UK.

The Foreign Office named 18 officers from Russian spy agency the GRU, as well as hitting three of its units with measures aimed at cracking down on Vladimir Putin’s increasing aggression abroad.

It said the military intelligence officers targeted were “responsible for spreading chaos and disorder on Putin’s orders”, and included those who had targeted the family of former Russian spy Sergei Skripal.

The officers sanctioned had targeted a device belonging to Mr Skripal’s daughter Yulia with malicious malware known as X-Agent five years before GRU attempted to murder them in Salisbury with the deadly Novichok nerve agent.

The units are also accused of conducting a prolonged campaign of cyberattacks across Europe, including in Britain, aimed at destabilising the continent and undermining democratic institutions.

“GRU spies are running a campaign to destabilise Europe, undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty and threaten the safety of British citizens,” foreign secretary David Lammy said.

He added: “The Kremlin should be in no doubt: we see what they are trying to do in the shadows and we won’t tolerate it. That’s why we’re taking decisive action with sanctions against Russian spies.”

On 15 March 2022, shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, Unit 26165 carried out online reconnaissance on civilian bomb shelters in Mariupol, southern Ukraine and in Kharkiv, eastern Ukraine, the Foreign Office said.

One of the targets was the Mariupol theatre. Civilians sheltering inside from Russian bombs had painted the word “children” outside in the hopes they would be spared.

But the next day, the theatre was hit by Russian airstrikes, killing about 600 people, including children, according to an Associated Press investigation.

In 2013, officers from the same unit had targeted the daughter of former Russian spy Sergei Skripal with malware, designed to harm or infiltrate computer systems, the foreign ministry said.

In 2018, Mr Skripal and his daughter Yulia were poisoned with the nerve agent Novichok in the English city of Salisbury, in an attack the British government said was organised by Russian intelligence. The Skripals survived the attack on British soil but a woman, Dawn Sturgess, was killed after her boyfriend stumbled across the poison in a perfume bottle.

The sanctions also targeted the Africa Initiative, which the Foreign Office said employed Russian intelligence officers to carry out information operations in Africa, including undermining public health programmes and destabilising various countries.

Russia’s campaign of sabotage and disruption across Europe ranges from cyberattacks and propaganda to arson and attempted assassination. Mr Lammy said: “Putin’s hybrid threats and aggression will never break our resolve. The UK and our allies’ support for Ukraine and Europe’s security is ironclad.”

More than 70 different attacks have been attributed to Russia by Western officials since the invasion.

The military intelligence units sanctioned on Friday also targeted foreign aid to Kyiv, ports, infrastructure and border crossings as well as technology companies, the Foreign Office said.

Although targeting GRU officers with sanctions is likely to have limited effect, the ministry said the goal is to raise awareness of Russia’s campaign and raise the cost to people working for its services, including making it harder for them to travel.

Police confirm 10-year-old boy was killed in Somerset school bus crash

The child who died in a school bus crash in Somerset has been confirmed as a 10-year-old boy, Avon and Somerset Police said on Friday. He has not yet been named.

Police added that six other children and three adults, including the driver, remain in hospital.

Between 60 and 70 people were on board the bus, which was heading back to Minehead Middle School after a day trip for Year 5 classes to Exmoor Zoo.

The vehicle left the A396 at Cutcombe Hill near Minehead, on Thursday afternoon, sliding down a 20ft slope .

Formal identification has not yet been completed, but specially trained officers are supporting the boy’s next of kin.

Two children were taken to Bristol Royal Hospital for Children by air ambulance following the incident, while four other children and three adults remain in hospital in Somerset, a police spokesperson said.

The crash happened on the A396 at Cutcombe Hill, between Wheddon Cross and Timberscombe, at about 3.15pm on Thursday.

The vehicle left the road, overturned and came to rest about 20ft (six metres) from the roadway, down a steep slope.

An off-duty firefighter travelling behind the coach was able to start freeing passengers immediately.

Recovery of the vehicle and collision investigation are complex, and police expect the road to remain closed for a considerable time.

Minehead Middle School, which caters for pupils aged between nine and 14, and is five days away from the end of term, remained closed on Friday.

On Friday, a stream of people went to the school to pay respects, leaving floral tributes and messages at the gates. Dozens of bouquets, balloons and messages have been left at the school.

Many were visibly upset and could be seen hugging and supporting each other.

Speaking outside the school gates, the Rev Philip Butcher, the vicar of Minehead, said the community was in shock.

“It was absolutely numbing, there are no words to describe what happened yesterday,” he said.

“It’s an absolute tragedy, and one that’s still very much unfolding. We’re just standing firm with the school, with the families at this time, just to be with them in this time as a point of support.”

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said: “There are no adequate words to acknowledge the death of a child. All my thoughts are with their parents, family and friends, and all those affected.”

The driver of the coach is reported to be in a stable condition but has suffered “a number of injuries”.

In a statement, Chief Superintendent Mark Edgington said: “On behalf of the emergency services, I would like to thank the 24 volunteers from Exmoor Search and Rescue who carried out first aid triage at the rest centre and have rope and search skills.

“I also pass on thanks to the staff of the Rest and Be Thankful pub at Wheddon Cross, which opened its doors as the rest centre.

“Of course, we also recognise the efforts of Minehead Middle School, for keeping parents and carers informed and providing support to the school community during what is a difficult and distressing time for them all.”

Doctor concerned mother influenced daughter’s cancer treatment, inquest hears

An NHS doctor has told an inquest into the death of 23-year-old Paloma Shemirani – who died months after refusing treatment for cancer – that she was concerned her mother could have influenced the decision.

The Cambridge graduate refused chemotherapy after being diagnosed in December 2023, and died just seven months later in July – despite a doctor telling her she had an 80 per cent chance of survival if she underwent treatment.

Paloma’s brothers have spoken out publicly in recent weeks, accusing their mother Kate Shemirani of influencing Paloma into refusing treatment that could have saved her life.

Kate is a former nurse who was struck off in 2021 for sharing anti-vaxx misinformation during the Covid-19 pandemic. She has a large following across social media, where she shares anti-medicine conspiracy theories to millions of people online.

Arunodaya Mohan, a consultant haematologist at Maidstone Hospital told the inquest on Friday at Oakwood House in Maidstone, Kent, that Kate had raised concerns with experts about the treatment plan seven months before Paloma’s death.

Dr Mohan met Paloma on December 22 2023 to set out the treatment plan after her diagnosis. She told the inquest she recommended steroids and a PET (positron emission tomography) scan, adding that Paloma “nodded in agreement”.

But soon after that, Paloma told Ms Mohan that she had not made her mind up about the treatment and wished to explore other options.

Dr Mohan said that she spoke on the phone with Paloma’s mother, saying that she expressed “concerns” about the side-effects of steroids.

Dr Mohan told the inquest: “I didn’t want to discuss with mum because I didn’t think it would be helpful to her.”

Alison Hewitt, counsel to the inquest, later asked: “Were there concerns that Ms Shemirani was influencing Paloma?”

Dr Mohan replied: “That’s right.”

Paloma declined to have the treatment, and when Dr Mohan asked why, there did not seem to be a specific reason, the inquest heard.

Ms Hewitt asked Dr Mohan if she questioned Paloma on whether her decision was influenced by anyone.

Dr Mohan said: “She was very confident that it was her own decision and she was not influenced.”

Kate advocates for the use of “natural medicine” to cure diseases, and credits alternative therapies for being cancer free after she was diagnosed with breast cancer in 2012, although her tumour was removed through surgery.

It is these kinds of conspiracy theories that Paloma’s brothers, Gabriel and Sebastian Shemirani, believe led their sister to refuse treatment for cancer.

Kate and her husband Faramarz Shemirani have denied responsibility and claimed that “Paloma died as a result of medical interventions” since her sons made the accusations, the BBC reported.

“My sister has passed away as a direct consequence of my mum’s actions and beliefs,” Paloma’s brother Sebastian told the BBC.

“And I don’t want anyone else to go through the same pain or loss that I have.”

Paloma began suffering chest pains after she graduated from the University of Cambridge and was later diagnosed with cancers after doctors found a mass in her lung.

She was told the cancer could be fatal if left untreated, but that she had an 80 per cent chance of recovery with treatment.

Her mother then spent two days with her as an inpatient at Maidstone Hospital, which Paloma’s boyfriend claimed could have influenced her decision to reject chemotherapy.

Her brother, Gabriel, then began a legal case arguing that Paloma should have an assessment of the appropriate medical treatment for her.

However, Paloma died before the case reached its conclusion in July 2024.

The Independent has approached Kate Shemirani for comment.

When my friends were facing cancer, a community of people stepped up

When I was younger, I used to worry incessantly about my parents getting cancer. I’d lay awake at night, ruminating on what would happen to my brother and I if they did. Who would support us? Thankfully, both are still cancer-free, well into their seventies.

However, now that I’m a parent myself, I worry about my children. Many people believe that cancer only really happens to people in old age, but that’s just not true. One beloved friend’s daughter died of leukaemia in 2020, aged just five; an unthinkable horror that changed the lives of everyone who knew her and her family.

And with Macmillan Cancer Support reporting that almost 3.5 million people in the UK are living with cancer, I also worry about my friends – parents themselves, their lives touched by cancer. One friend sat me down in our favourite local café, our toddlers playing at our feet, to break the news that she was about to undergo a double mastectomy. We cried together.

Another friend, Sarah, a single parent to two teenage girls, was diagnosed with breast cancer the day before we heard that King Charles had cancer, and a month before the Princess of Wales, Kate Middleton, announced her own diagnosis in March last year. It seemed like cancer was everywhere.

As a result, Sarah put 2024 on hold – she missed her daughter’s last sports day and last concert at primary school and had to find a whole new way of co-ordinating family life.

“I’m lucky in some ways that my children are teenagers, so they are able to look after themselves to some degree – but I’m also a single parent, so there are some things that they can’t do, or struggle with, due to their age,” she tells me.

“I have even set up multiple alarms on our Alexa reminding them to put their packed lunches in their bags or leave for school, just in case I can’t get up.”

Sarah says she thought she knew quite a lot about cancer prior to her diagnosis, but now admits she “really didn’t”. She explains: “There are so many terms and procedures to understand – stages and grades, not to mention over 100 different chemotherapy drugs.”

Sarah tells me about the exhausting cumulative effect of chemotherapy, which she endured every three weeks during her cancer treatment: “After the very first lot, I slept for a few hours and felt much better pretty quickly. For my last rounds, I slept for 48 hours solid and even days later, I needed to have a nap in the middle of the day and was in bed by 8pm.”

Sarah’s now finished chemotherapy and, a year on from her diagnosis, is turning 50. She’s throwing a huge party to celebrate not only the birthday milestone, but getting over this “annus horriblis” – a year she couldn’t have gotten through without the people around her.

“People can do so much for us when we are unwell – and I am forever grateful,” she says. “I’ve been really overwhelmed by the support that my friends have given me; from ferrying around my children to and from after-school events and sleepovers when things get bad, to my 75-year-old neighbour mowing the lawn. One friend popped round with a huge pot of pasta sauce and I even had a gift box from a recruiter at work.”

What talking to my strong, resilient friends about their cancer journeys has made me realise most, is the power of community: for when we receive the worst news imaginable, what we need is people around us to see us through. A community of other women: friends, school mums, neighbours.

They had people willing to make them food, pick up their children, go shopping for them or to just sit with them and listen. They had support when they decided to raise money for cancer support charities, when they did fundraisers such as hosting a Macmillan Coffee Morning.

It takes a village to raise a child – and that village will be with you every step of the way when you need them most.

Find out how you can help raise vital funds by hosting a Macmillan Coffee Morning. Sign up now on the Macmillan website

Macmillan Cancer Support, registered charity in England and Wales (261017), Scotland (SC039907) and the Isle of Man (604). Also operating in Northern Ireland.

Who will benefit the most from new rules about voter ID?

The announcement about giving the vote to 16- and 17-year-olds in all UK elections has obviously caused huge excitement, and some controversy. However, the experts say that the number of new voters will in practice be very small, and that it will make only a marginal difference to the result of a general election – because some won’t vote, and there’s no God-given law about them all voting Labour.

Much more significant are the new rules on voter ID. The range of acceptable documents will be widened to include, for example, bank cards. Whatever the advantage it might bestow on any particular party at an election, proponents say it will boost turnout, and engagement with the democratic process…

What are the changes?

The government says its elections bill will allow people to use UK-issued bank cards as proof of identity, and of course, these do not usually carry an image of the user. In addition, there will be “more digital options to support voters and polling station staff, including allowing accepted IDs such as the Veteran Card and UK driving licence to be used at polling stations when they become available in digital format”.

Why are they doing this?

The cynics say it is because it will benefit Labour disproportionately. Others say that, true or not, that’s less important than allowing people to vote, and that the threat of electoral fraud has been greatly exaggerated.

Historically, according to the Electoral Commission and the academics, there’s been little in Great Britain even in local elections, and it is virtually unknown in general elections. Where it has cropped up, such as in Tower Hamlets, it has been dealt with.

The counterclaim is that photo ID was brought in by the Conservatives in the last parliament in order to help them and to suppress the Labour vote. A point lost to history is that the 2019 Conservative manifesto did not specify “photo” ID as the preferred option. (Northern Ireland has needed photo ID for far longer, because of much more voter “personation”. Hence the local slogan “Vote early, vote often”.)

How many people have been affected by the rules on photo ID?

Probably in the hundreds of thousands, and maybe more. The polling company More in Common say that, on the basis of polling after the last election, more than 850,000 would have been turned away at the polling station for lack of ID, and – given that some returned – perhaps 400,000 lost their vote.

It affected voters from ethnic minority groups disproportionately: the poll suggested that 6.5 per cent of voters of colour were turned away from a polling booth at least once, compared with 2.5 per cent of white voters.

But of course, no one really has any idea how many voters didn’t even bother to go to the polls who wished to, because they knew they didn’t have the necessary ID – or they did but it had some minor discrepancy, such as a variation in their first name or the precise spelling of their surname.

Local council “greeters” posted outside polling stations may also have stopped people from entering the premises, and thus these would-be voters would have gone unnoticed by the local election officials or the Electoral Commission.

What about the millions who aren’t registered at all?

The government says that an increasingly automated voter registration system will also make it easier for people to register to vote, and will reduce the need for them to fill out their details across different government services on multiple occasions.

Who will the reforms help?

On balance, Labour, because of its relatively high vote among some ethnic minorities; but also, for that same reason, the Corbynite independents who took seats from Labour in strongly Muslim areas even in a strong year such as 2024. Reform UK might also see some benefit, because their vote is skewed towards more disadvantaged places, where turnouts are traditionally low. Automated registration among disaffected non-voters might give them a bit of a boost.

Will it save the Labour Party?

No. As with votes at 16, the numbers aren’t going to make that much of a difference, and in our present confused four- or five-party system, it’s hard to see anyone gaining a decisive advantage. And voting allegiances by age, class and ethnicity, for example, can shift over time anyway. But in a very close contest, who knows?

What about postal voting?

This seems to be another problem for turnout. The government says of last July: “Overall, 8 per cent of non-voters mentioned they did not vote because of an issue related to their postal vote (such as missing the deadline to apply, forms arriving late and forgetting to send their postal vote) – with this figure rising to 13 per cent in Scotland and Wales.”

The deterioration in the postal system has added fresh challenges to a method of voting many find essential, or more convenient. So the proposal is to change the deadline in Great Britain to apply for a postal vote, moving it from 11 to 14 working days before a poll, thereby providing more time between the application deadline and polling day.

What about postal vote fraud?

This only became much of an issue in Britain after the contested 2020 US presidential election, and Donald Trump’s unfounded allegations that it was rigged. Nigel Farage and Reform UK make a big deal of it, and Richard Tice, Reform’s deputy leader, has raised it again in the Commons this week, stating: “I have seen people carrying bag-loads of postal votes to a polling station on election day.” The relevant minister, Rushanara Ali, told him to tell the police.

Our failing water firms are a damning reflection of Broken Britain

The latest report from the Environment Agency on the state of Britain’s rivers is a veritable shower of euphemism and shame. “Serious pollution incidents”, the bland bureaucratic term preferred by the agency, are up by 60 per cent just in the last year.

We all know what that means: lumpy sewage in streams and on seashores that turns the stomach of anyone nearby, asphyxiates fish, and generally decimates the environment. “Wastewater” leaking out while being carried uphill is apparently a particular problem, one “impacting” swimmers.

Around 80 per cent of the most serious “incidents” were down to three companies – Thames Water (33 spillages), Southern Water (15) and Yorkshire Water (13).

There is no suggestion that the situation is likely to improve; indeed, all the talk is of Thames Water, the largest company of its kind in the country, collapsing under the weight of its own debt rather than its scandalous record on pollution.

It’s a damning reflection of “Broken Britain”. Why has a supposedly civilised G7 economy grown so easily accustomed to such an appalling state of affairs? It may be true that de-industrialisation has cleaned up some of the larger rivers and estuaries in recent decades, but the water companies, the regulators and successive governments can hardly take credit for that.

What they are responsible for is what is in their control – maintaining a sewage system that does what it is expected of it in the modern world. It is one of the most basic services – and yet in parts of the UK, it feels little more than a hopeless aspiration.

This river of excrement has been rolling for years, and, while the details can be complex, the principal streams of blame that feed into the scandal can be easily identified. Incomprehensibly weak regulation is the strongest of the currents, either because Ofwat was never given sufficient powers or a wide enough remit, or because it was incompetent, or all three.

There has never been a shortage of official bodies nominally overseeing matters – the Environment Agency and various iterations of the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, as well as local authorities – but always a huge deficit of effective democratic control.

There is, of course, a fundamental contradiction at the heart of this particular privatised industry: the provision of clean running water and efficient sewage disposal may not align with the commercial imperatives of the companies denationalised in 1989 in England and Wales (Scotland and Northern Ireland were spared the experiment). Profit and public service can co-exist and even flourish – but not always, and not everywhere.

Even if the industry had been regulated better, the privatised model combined with zero competition and regulated tariffs was poorly prepared for the task of investing the vast sums needed to renew the crumbling Victorian infrastructure, let alone build the reservoirs and pipework required to cater for a population that was to expand by some 12 million in the ensuing decades. Some public services ought not to be expected, let alone forced, to turn a profit.

But from early on, the major weakness in the regulatory regime was becoming apparent – that while the need to monitor charges and water quality was recognised, there was no oversight of the financial health of the companies.

Once the shares had been acquired from the small shareholders in the initial public offerings and placed in the hands of private equity firms, the companies were free to load themselves with as much debt as they fancied – which paid for bumper dividends for the new shareholders. It left a vital public service hopelessly over-mortgaged.

The chance was taken for some lucrative asset stripping, even certain reservoirs were sold off, and the companies were left so enfeebled that if Ofwat tried to fine them, they could plausibly claim that they would go bust. They contrived to make themselves too big to fail. Or so they hoped.

On Monday, the government will publish a review of the industry by Sir Jon Cunliffe, the head of the Independent Water Commission, and its own proposals will follow. As we reported on Friday, the government is expected to scrap Ofwat. It must use the power of parliament to chart a new course for the industry.

Despite the pollution crisis, the Treasury cannot afford immediately to renationalise the most distressed of the operators, Thames Water, because of its enormous debts – more than £16bn.

It seems inevitable that Thames will fall into the special procedure that will ensure continuing water and sewage services to 15 million customers in southern England and London while the government takes control.

This is a far cheaper remedy for the taxpayer, but it does still mean that the considerable cost of cleaning up the rivers, keeping the taps on and the loos flushing will, to some extent, fall to the taxpayers as well as the bill payers. Either that, or we just get used to having the dirtiest rivers and beaches in Europe.